connect conference gleneden beach, ore. april … dam uzbekistan surkhandarya region
TRANSCRIPT
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AARON T. WOLF PROGRAM IN WATER CONFLICT MANAGEMENT & TRANSFORMATION
COLLEGE OF EARTH, OCEAN, AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY, USA EMAIL: [email protected]
WWW.TRANSBOUNDARYWATERS.ORST.EDU
CONNECT Conference Gleneden Beach, Ore.
April 2016
mailto:[email protected]://www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu
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What is Water Conflict Management & Transformation??
What changes when a border is present? What capacity do we need to address the change?
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Cooperation
Security/Economic Alliance
Neutral Relations
Tensions
Disputes
Hostilities (e.g. sanctions)
Acute (Violent) Conflict
War
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The Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database A Project of Oregon State University Department of Geosciences and the
Northwest Alliance for Computational Science
Reference to 3,600 water-related treaties (805-1997) Full-text of 400 treaties and 40 US compacts, entered
in computer database Detailed negotiating notes (primary or secondary)
from fourteen case-studies of water conflict resolution
Annotated bibliography of State of the Art of water dispute resolution literature
News files on cases of acute water-related disputes Indigenous methods of water dispute resolution
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Events Database, Example
DATE BASIN COUNTRIES BAR SCALE EVENT SUMMARY ISSUE TYPE
12/5/73 La Plata Argentina--Paraguay 4 PRY AND ARG AGREE TO BUILD 1B DAM, HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT Infrastructure
1/1/76 Ganges Bangladesh--India--United
Nations -2
Bangladesh lodges a formal protest against India with the United Nations, which adopts a consensus statement encouraging the parties to meet urgently, at the level of minister, to arrive at a settlement.
Quantity
7/3/78 Amazon
Bolivia--Brazil--Colombia--Ecuador--
Guyana--Peru--Suriname--Venezuela
6 Treaty for Amazonian Cooperation Economic Development
4/7/95 Jordan Israel--Jordan 4
Pipeline from Israel storage at Beit Zera to Abdullah Canal (East Ghor Canal) begins delivering water stipulated in Treaty (20 MCM summer, 10 MCM winter). The 10 mcm replaces the 10 mcm of desalinated water stipulated Annex II, Article 2d until desalinization plant completed
Quantity
6/1/99 Senegal Mali--Mauritania -3
13 people died in communal clashes in 6/99 along border between Maur. & Mali; conflict started when herdsmen in Missira-Samoura village in w. Mali, refused to allow Maur. horseman to use watering hole; horseman returned w/ some of his clansmen, attacking village on 6/20/99, causing 2 deaths; in retaliation that followed, 11 more died.
Quantity
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 21 17 6
68
227
420
122
682
276
242
334
7
164
0
Increasing Conflict
Number of Events by BAR Scale 1948-2008
Increasing Cooperation
Source: De Stefano, L., P. Edwards, L. de Silva and A. T. Wolf 2010. Tracking Cooperation and Conflict in International Basins: Historic and Recent Trends. Water Policy. Vol 12 No 6 pp 871884. Adapted with permission of the authors.
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Number of Media Reported Events in Oregon along a Cooperation- Conflict Spectrum
from 1990 to 2004
Source: Fesler, K. (2006) [Analysis of social interactions concerning Oregons water resources between 1990 and 2004.] Unpublished Data.
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BASINS AT RISK: Working Hypothesis The likelihood of conflict rises as the rate of
change within the basin exceeds the institutional capacity to absorb that change.
What are indicators? Sudden physical changes or lower institutional
capacity are more conducive to disputes: 1) Uncoordinated development: a major project in
the absence of a treaty or commission 2) Internationalized basins 3) General animosity
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Oregon Timeline
Source: Fesler, K. (2006) [Analysis of social interactions concerning Oregons water resources between 1990 and 2004.] Unpublished Data.
Chart3
-1.10185185190.3090909091-1.0363636364
-1.25694444442-2.2545454545
-2.11388888891.1090909091-0.2909090909
0.1120370370.07272727270
-1.71157407410.6545454545-0.6181818182
0.59583333330.4727272727-0.5272727273
1.05694444441.0363636364-0.8181818182
1.03518518520.7818181818-0.3636363636
0.74444444440.6-1.4727272727
0.85833333333.0545454545-1.9636363636
-0.18657407411.4181818182-1.7454545455
-2.43333333332.1454545455-5.4909090909
-0.74305555561.8-2.0363636364
-0.85555555560.6181818182-2.6363636364
-0.47027777783.7818181818-1.5636363636
Drought Index
Cooperative Average
Conflictive Average
Year
Drought Index
Average
Summary Stats
Summary StatsIn progress: inclusion of local eventsValues from Event db addntl
Group A is 1990-1996
Group B is origin 1996-1997
Group C is local 2004
Spectrum valuetitleoriginlocaltotalData Plotted in 'Strug Chart'
5Solidarity6510
4Alliance411253
3Assent262147184
2Agreement242448
1Similarity19726
0Neutral45216645
-1Difference283159
-2Disagreement18725135
-3Dispute20626
-4Litigation2222
-5Hostility33
total252134385
Total Events by Basin for 1990-2004
originlocaltotal
Willamette8218383
Mid Coast6717777
Klamath626262
Mahleur434343
Oregon212121
Rogue1631919
Deschutes1531862
Sandy151515
Federal1011111
Umpqua461010
South Coast5166
Umatilla555
John Day2355
Goose and Summer Lakes555
Owyhee222
Grande Ronde222
North Coast111
Total251134429
TotalSpectrum Value
BasinCoop (+5)Coop (+4)Coop (+3)Coop (+2)Coop (+1)Neut (0)Conf (-1)Conf (-2)Conf (-3)Conf (-4)Conf (-5)Total
Oregon1412126211021
Federal0201060101011
Deschutes0541241100018
Goose and Summer Lakes000110011105
Grande Ronde000000001102
John Day010012010005
Klamath127451211656362
Mahleur14662416310043
Mid Coast18141551112362077
North Coast000100000001
Owyhee000101000002
Rogue1214142031019
Sandy2212123101015
South Coast011100002106
Umatilla020002001005
Umpqua2410002100010
Willamette1161197166557083
Total105347482666592526223385
Total expont Weight Spectrum Averages: BasinCoop TotalCoop AveConf TotalConf AveEvent TotalTotal AveData Plotted in 'Strug Averages'Total AveCoop AveConf Ave
Oregon91.945454545510-0.7090909091210.6181818182Umpqua
Federal30.65454545452-0.3636363636110.1454545455North Coast
Deschutes122.21818181822-0.0909090909181.0636363636Deschutes
Goose20.09090909093-0.52727272735-0.2181818182Sandy
Grande Ronde002-0.45454545452-0.2272727273Owyhee
Hood
John Day20.30909090911-0.072727272750.1181818182Umatilla
Klamath192.563636363631-4.563636363661-1Mid Coast
Mahleur193.072727272720-0.6727272727431.2Willamette
Mahleur Lake
Mid Coast436.254545454523-2762.1272727273Mahleur
North Coast10.07272727270010.0363636364John Day
Owyhee10.07272727270020.0363636364Rogue
Powder
Rogue91.50909090916-0.8181818182190.3454545455South Coast
Sandy81.81818181825-0.4181818182140.7Klamath
South Coast30.52727272733-0.61818181826-0.0454545455Goose
Umatilla20.58181818181-0.163636363650.2090909091Grande Ronde
Umpqua72.23636363643-0.1090909091101.0636363636
Willamette447.690909090923-3.3272727273822.1818181818
Total184135381
Event Count
BasinStrong Coop (+4,+5)Mild Coop (+1,+2,+3)Neutral (0)Mild Conf (-1, -2,-3)Stong Conf (-4,-5)TotalCoopConfl% conflict extreme% coop extreme
State54291219104.76%23.81%4.00%
Federal2161111329.09%18.18%4.00%
Deschutes57420181220.00%27.78%0.00%
Goose and Summer Lakes0202152320.00%0.00%4.00%
Grande Ronde0001120250.00%0.00%4.00%
John Day112105210.00%20.00%0.00%
Klamath3161222962193114.52%4.84%36.00%
Mahleur51442004319200.00%11.63%0.00%
Mid Coast934112127743232.60%11.69%8.00%
North Coast010001100.00%0.00%0.00%
Owyhee011002100.00%0.00%0.00%
Rogue3645119965.26%15.79%4.00%
Sandy4424115856.67%26.67%4.00%
South Coast1202163316.67%16.67%4.00%
Umatilla202105210.00%40.00%0.00%
Umpqua6103010730.00%60.00%0.00%
Willamette1727161678344238.43%20.48%28.00%
385
Total6312166110253851841356.49%16.36%
Total: BasinCoop (+)Neutral (0)Confl (-)TotalData plotted in 'Basin'
Willamette44162383
Mid Coast43112377
Klamath19123162
Mahleur1942043
Rogue94619
Deschutes124218
Sandy82515
Umpqua70310
South Coast3036
Goose2035
John Day2215
Umatilla2215
Grande Ronde0022
Owyhee1102
North Coast1001
Oregon921021
Federal36211
Total18466135385
Data excludes local source searches to plot against drought index
Oregon (basin)ConflictCooperativeNeutralKlamathConflictCooperativeNeutraltotal
199019901001
199119911012
199219920000
199319930101
19941119940011
1995119950000
19961219960000
199719970011
19981219980000
199911119990000
20002120001001
20012001189431
2002120023339
2003120034318
200420043317
total31191262
WillamettetotalconflictcoopneutralDeschutestotalconflictcoopneutral
1990512219900000
1991814319911010
199210119920000
1993000019930000
1994000019941010
1995412119950000
1996513119964130
1997101019974031
1998202019980000
199917610119990000
20001035220000000
2001614120012110
2002211020021010
2003640220031001
20041539320041010
Total82Total15
RoguetotalconflictcoopneutralSandytotalconflictcoopneutral
1990000019900000
1991000019917430
1992000019921010
1993000019930000
1994000019940000
1995000019950000
1996000019960000
1997100119971010
1998532019980000
1999422019992020
2000201120000000
2001000020012002
2002202020022110
2003100120030000
2004101020040000
total16total15
OriginSpectrum Valuesdoes not include local events
YearCoop (+5)Coop (+4)Coop (+3)Coop (+2)Coop (+1)Neut (0)Conf (-1)Conf (-2)Conf (-3)Conf (-4)Conf (-5)total recheckTotal Events
19900100121200077
1991142035321202323
19920311000100066
19930001000000011
19940201031010088
19950110121001077
1996022131110101212
1997012213010101111
1998010410203101212
1999251713133202828
2000041113123301919
2001045157923424242
2002043203320111919
2003012007421101818
2004185226105403434
Total Spectrum44125231945281820213247247
Spectrum Ave for each yearCoopConfTotaltest
19900.3090909091-1.0363636364-0.3636363636
19912-2.2545454545-0.1272727273
19921.1090909091-0.29090909090.4090909091
19930.072727272700.0363636364
19940.6545454545-0.61818181820.0181818182
19950.4727272727-0.5272727273-0.0272727273
19961.0363636364-0.81818181820.1090909091
19970.7818181818-0.36363636360.2090909091
19980.6-1.4727272727-0.4363636364
19993.0545454545-1.96363636360.5454545455
20001.4181818182-1.7454545455-0.1636363636
20012.1454545455-5.4909090909-1.6727272727
20021.8-2.0363636364-0.1181818182
20030.6181818182-2.6363636364-1.0090909091
20043.7818181818-1.56363636361.1090909091
OriginNumber of events
YearCoop (+)Neut (0)Conf (-)Year TotalCases
1990223710
199110582331
199250167
199310011
1994332810
199532279
19968131215
19976321113
19986061218
199916392837
20007391928
2001157204262
20029371926
20033781826
2004186103444
337
TIMELINE
1999-4Oregon Plan
19994
drought
DateJan-1 1990Apr-1 1990Jul-1 1990Oct-1 1990Jan-1 1991Apr-1 1991Jul-1 1991Oct-1 1991Jan-1 1992Apr-1 1992Jul-1 1992Oct-1 1992Jan-1 1993Apr-1 1993Jul-1 1993Oct-1 1993Jan-1 1994Apr-1 1994Jul-1 1994Oct-1 1994Jan-1 1995Apr-1 1995Jul-1 1995Oct-1 1995Jan-1 1996Apr-1 1996Jul-1 1996Oct-1 1996Jan-1 1997Apr-1 1997Jul-1 1997Oct-1 1997Jan-1 1998Apr-1 1998Jul-1 1998Oct-1 1998Jan-1 1999Apr-1 1999Jul-1 1999Oct-1 1999Jan-1 2000Apr-1 2000Jul-1 2000Oct-1 2000Jan-1 2001Apr-1 2001Jul-1 2001Oct-1 2001Jan-1 2002Apr-1 2002Jul-1 2002Oct-1 2002Jan-1 2003Apr-1 2003Jul-1 2003Oct-1 2003Jan-1 2004Apr-1 2004Jul-1 2004Oct-1 2004Jan-1 2005
North CoastNorth Coast5-Mo Avg-1.4-0.90.20.0-0.3-1.10.5-0.5-1.2-1.9-2.3-1.5-0.5-1.2na0.4-2.3-1.6-0.9-1.11.01.60.20.31.81.40.90.71.60.50.22.41.8-0.3-0.7-1.20.62.81.0-0.40.10.5-0.10.2-2.1-3.3-1.60.00.50.2-0.4-1.3-1.50.0-0.4-1.4-0.4-1.1-1.830.20.63
Grane RondeGrande Ronde5-Mo Avg-0.2-1.4-0.8-0.8-0.5nana-0.8-0.8-1.7-2.9-2.4-1.5-0.9na1.70.0-1.1-1.4-2.0-1.10.51.11.51.41.01.00.91.52.22.01.90.5-0.10.61.31.11.60.90.40.20.60.1-0.7-0.8-2.8-3.0-3.2-1.7-0.7-1.5-1.9-2.0-1.6-1.3-1.5-1.4-0.7-1.17-1.24-1.57
UmatillaUmatilla5-Mo Avg-1.8-2.5-1.6-1.2-1.2-2.0-0.50.2-0.5-1.3-2.8-2.2-0.30.10.71.4-0.9-1.8-1.4-2.1-0.9-0.1-0.11.11.21.10.40.00.6na0.01.20.2-1.0-0.30.70.91.20.10.1-0.20.1-0.4-1.5-1.2-2.9-2.7-2.9-1.4-0.9-0.60.0-0.9-1.00.60.90.20.040.131.310.08
WillametteWillamette5-Mo Avg-1.9-1.2-0.6-0.8-0.6-1.5-0.8-0.4-0.4-1.4-2.1-1.9-0.60.00.80.4-2.3-2.0na-0.90.60.7-0.1-0.20.91.40.4-0.21.72.20.50.30.1-1.0-0.7-0.40.72.10.50.2-0.10.80.3-0.4-1.5-2.8-3.0-3.3-1.50.4-0.6-1.8-1.8-0.9-1.2-2.0-0.70.19-0.830.540.38
John DayUpper John Day5-Mo Avg-0.6-2.6-1.5-0.8-0.8-2.2-0.10.3-0.6-1.9-2.7-0.90.21.21.91.7-1.0-2.1-1.7-1.6-0.70.50.90.70.50.60.2-0.51.11.70.30.7-0.6-0.30.91.30.51.80.7-0.7-0.9-0.1-0.8-1.8-0.9-2.5-2.2-1.40.10.2-0.8-0.9-1.1-0.9-0.3-0.40.00.480.20.870.3
DeschutesUpper Deschutes5-Mo Avg-1.3-1.8-2.0-1.9-1.9-2.5-2.3-2.4-1.9-2.4-2.7-2.5-2.2-0.40.80.7-0.8-1.9-2.5-2.8nanana-0.7-0.50.31.21.72.02.31.82.41.40.31.52.31.82.21.01.81.51.01.01.30.5-1.5-1.6-0.8-0.20.2-0.5-1.0-1.0-0.9-0.7-0.8-0.30.03-0.290.01-0.27
HoodLower Deschutes5-Mo Avg-1.5-1.40.3-0.3-0.3-1.0-1.1-1.4-1.1-1.7-2.8-2.2-0.9-0.80.7-0.1-2.4-2.0-1.9-2.8-1.20.3-0.7-0.50.70.60.90.71.6nana3.11.1nana0.20.61.21.01.80.70.70.80.7nanananana1.21.40.8-2.0-1.5-1.4-1.7-0.7-0.45-0.810.850.18
SandyLower Deschutes5-Mo Avg-1.5-1.40.3-0.3-0.3-1.0-1.1-1.4-1.1-1.7-2.8-2.2-0.9-0.80.7-0.1-2.4-2.0-1.9-2.8-1.20.3-0.7-0.50.70.60.90.71.6nana3.11.1nana0.20.61.21.01.80.70.70.80.7nanananana1.21.40.8-2.0-1.5-1.4-1.7-0.7-0.45-0.810.850.18
PowderGrande Ronde5-Mo Avg-0.2-1.4-0.8-0.8-0.5nana-0.8-0.8-1.7-2.9-2.4-1.5-0.9na1.70.0-1.1-1.4-2.0-1.10.51.11.51.41.01.00.91.52.22.01.90.5-0.10.61.31.11.60.90.40.20.60.1-0.7-0.8-2.8-3.0-3.2-1.7-0.7-1.5-1.9-2.0-1.6-1.3-1.5-1.4-0.7-1.17-1.24-1.57
Mid CoastNorth Coast5-Mo Avg-1.4-0.90.20.0-0.3-1.10.5-0.5-1.2-1.9-2.3-1.5-0.5-1.2na0.4-2.3-1.6-0.9-1.11.01.60.20.31.81.40.90.71.60.50.22.41.8-0.3-0.7-1.20.62.81.0-0.40.10.5-0.10.2-2.1-3.3-1.60.00.50.2-0.4-1.3-1.50.0-0.4-1.4-0.4-1.1-1.830.20.63
MalheurMalheur5-Mo Avg-0.4-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.2-2.8-2.2-2.2-1.8-2.4nanana0.11.11.1-0.2-1.4-1.9-2.3-1.4-0.40.20.80.4na0.90.51.31.10.5na0.10.01.41.41.52.0nana0.00.50.4-0.2-0.8-1.8-1.8-1.4-0.7-0.5-1.3-1.8-1.9-1.6-1.2-1.9-1.7-0.35-0.66-0.85-1.14
Mal LakeHarney5-Mo Avg-0.7-2.9-2.3-1.7-1.5-2.6-1.2-0.9-0.8-2.3-3.0-2.00.11.31.91.5-0.7-2.3-1.9-2.5-0.91.00.91.1-0.20.70.6-0.30.71.10.0-0.1-1.20.31.31.50.71.40.9-0.4-1.5-0.8-1.3-1.9-2.0-2.2-2.0-1.4-0.10.2-1.4-1.8-1.9-1.9-0.9-0.6-0.60.47-0.53-0.20.13
UmpquaRogue & Umpqua5-Mo Avg-1.1-2.1-1.7-1.3-1.7-2.1-1.3-0.8-1.1-2.3-3.4-3.3-1.80.11.01.1-0.9-2.3-2.8-3.1-1.80.51.01.91.01.41.81.91.51.50.71.60.40.62.01.70.72.01.61.30.20.50.70.6-0.9-2.9-3.3-3.4-1.50.1-0.9-1.6-1.1-0.4-0.5-0.7-0.50.18-0.06-0.37-0.52
OwyheeOwyhee5-Mo Avg-0.3-1.1-1.0-1.1-1.6-2.1-1.5-1.6-1.4-2.6-3.3-3.2-1.70.41.10.7-0.6-1.8-2.0-2.3-1.20.10.61.20.40.70.80.51.11.70.90.9-0.2-0.10.71.40.70.80.90.3-0.7-0.3-1.0-1.1nanananana-0.5-1.3-1.6-1.7-2.1-2.4-2.4-1.7-0.48-1.16-1.29-0.89
GooseLake5-Mo Avg-0.1-1.7-2.0-1.9-2.3-2.8-2.0-2.5-2.3-2.6nanana0.01.70.5-1.3-1.6-2.3-2.6na0.41.3nanananana2.12.00.80.80.21.02.12.21.31.91.41.40.10.00.30.50.3-1.7-2.4-2.3-0.6-0.1-0.7-1.2-1.3-1.0-0.7-0.5-0.6-0.08-0.95-1.45-0.83
South CoastSouth Coast5-Mo Avgnanana2.11.1-0.10.00.1-1.0-2.6-1.6-2.2-2.00.01.52.70.5-1.0-0.9-1.9-0.91.11.31.20.41.21.10.41.11.2-0.6-1.0-1.30.41.22.32.01.20.10.5-0.2-0.6-1.5-1.9-2.3-3.6-2.2-1.3-0.60.72.02.70.61.22.22.80.9-0.94-2.52-0.80.75
KlamathKlamath5-Mo Avg-0.7-1.8na-1.6-2.1-2.9-2.4-2.6-2.5-2.8-3.5-3.4-2.20.00.6-0.1-1.3-2.4-2.9-3.2-2.3-0.30.60.5-0.21.51.30.71.21.70.80.90.51.12.32.31.62.11.51.40.60.60.60.0nanananana-0.4-2.0-2.6-2.2-1.7-1.8-2.2-2.0-1.19-2.02-2.55-1.94
RogueRogue & Umpqua5-Mo Avg-1.1-2.1-1.7-1.3-1.7-2.1-1.3-0.8-1.1-2.3-3.4-3.3-1.80.11.01.1-0.9-2.3-2.8-3.1-1.80.51.01.91.01.41.81.91.51.50.71.60.40.62.01.70.72.01.61.30.20.50.70.6-0.9-2.9-3.3-3.4-1.50.1-0.9-1.6-1.1-0.4-0.5-0.7-0.50.18-0.06-0.37-0.52
South CoastSouth Coast5-Mo Avgnanana2.11.1-0.10.00.1-1.0-2.6-1.6-2.2-2.00.01.52.70.5-1.0-0.9-1.9-0.91.11.31.20.41.21.10.41.11.2-0.6-1.0-1.30.41.22.32.01.20.10.5-0.2-0.6-1.5-1.9-2.3-3.6-2.2-1.3-0.60.72.02.70.61.22.22.80.9-0.94-2.52-0.80.75
(april 1990- jan 1991)
Yearly Averages199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
North Coast-0.3-0.6-1.6-1.0-0.71.01.21.2-0.40.9-0.4-1.1-0.8-0.6-0.53
Grane Ronde-0.9-0.8-2.10.3-1.41.11.11.70.70.8-0.2-2.7-1.5-1.5-1.17
Umatilla-1.6-0.7-1.70.3-1.60.50.50.50.10.3-0.8-2.5-0.60.20.39
Willamette-0.8-0.8-1.5-0.3-0.80.30.80.8-0.40.7-0.2-2.7-1.0-1.20.07
John Day-1.4-0.7-1.31.0-1.50.70.40.50.60.2-0.9-1.5-0.7-0.40.46
Deschutes-1.9-2.3-2.50.1-2.4-0.61.32.01.51.61.0-1.0-0.6-0.7-0.13
Hood-0.4-1.2-1.9-0.7-2.0-0.11.02.10.41.20.70.00.4-1.3-0.06
Sandy-0.4-1.2-1.9-0.7-2.0-0.11.02.10.41.20.70.00.4-1.3-0.06
Powder-0.9-0.8-2.10.3-1.41.11.11.70.70.8-0.2-2.7-1.5-1.5-1.17
Mid Coast-0.3-0.6-1.6-1.0-0.71.01.21.2-0.40.9-0.4-1.1-0.8-0.6-0.53
Malheur-2.1-2.3-2.40.5-1.80.30.90.61.11.0-0.0-1.4-1.4-1.6-0.75
Mal Lake-2.1-1.4-1.81.0-1.90.70.4-0.11.00.1-1.5-1.4-1.2-1.0-0.03
Umpqua-1.7-1.3-2.70.3-2.51.11.71.11.31.30.2-2.8-0.9-0.5-0.19
Owyhee-1.2-1.7-2.70.4-1.80.60.80.80.70.3-0.80.0-1.3-2.2-0.96
Goose-2.0-2.4-2.60.2-2.20.92.11.01.71.20.3-1.8-0.8-0.7-0.83
South Coast1.6-0.3-2.11.2-1.21.01.0-0.41.50.4-1.6-1.91.51.8-0.88surrogate K 2001 value found by average of nearby basins
Klamath-1.8-2.6-3.0-0.2-2.70.21.21.01.81.40.4-2.1-1.8-1.9-1.93-2.08125
Rogue-1.7-1.3-2.70.3-2.51.11.71.11.31.30.2-2.8-0.9-0.5-0.19
South Coast1.6-0.3-2.11.2-1.21.01.0-0.41.50.4-1.6-1.91.51.8-0.88
Oregon-1.1-1.3-2.10.1-1.70.61.11.00.70.9-0.2-2.4-0.7-0.9-0.5
basins surrounding K: R, UQ, D, GS
may be used to form surrogate drought index value for 2001
TOTAL0
drought
10
10
00
01
00
00
00
00
00
00
10
189
33
43
33
drought index
conflict
cooperate
year
drought value
Klamath drought index
consmp use
DateDeschutesGooseGrande RondeHoodJohn DayKlamathMalheurMalheur LakeMid CoastNorth CoastOwyheePowderRogueSandySouth CoastUmatillaUmpquaWillamette
1/1/9312.72106.153.625.742.5637.50273.938.931.054.68270.4542.2611.8059.501.6485.063.537.60
4/1/9314.4477.794.919.785.3151.50135.4858.911.473.73128.6038.1915.2751.421.3274.621.2326.40
7/1/9319.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.34454.43158.2910.2922.40503.02133.6224.4233.3323.17226.9615.0031.66
10/1/9316.8189.905.5212.6018.0239.52195.2621.9310.4222.39294.8739.126.2059.3612.77120.825.567.99
1993 Ave15.88148.3212.4717.4020.6263.22264.7762.025.8113.30299.2463.3014.4250.909.73126.866.3318.41
1/1/9412.72106.153.625.742.7237.50273.938.931.264.69270.4542.2611.8059.501.7785.063.537.66
4/1/9414.4477.794.919.785.3151.50135.4858.911.763.75128.6038.1915.2751.421.3874.621.2326.45
7/1/9419.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.34454.43158.2910.3122.50503.02133.6224.4233.3323.25226.9615.0732.13
10/1/9416.8189.905.5212.6018.0239.52195.2621.9310.4322.39294.8739.126.2059.3613.10120.825.568.13
1994 Ave15.88148.3212.4717.4020.6663.22264.7762.025.9413.33299.2463.3014.4250.909.87126.866.3518.59
1/1/9512.72106.243.625.742.7237.50273.938.931.334.69270.4542.2611.8059.501.8585.063.587.70
4/1/9514.4477.904.919.785.3451.54135.4858.911.783.75128.6038.2515.2751.421.4674.681.2826.50
7/1/9519.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2910.4322.50503.02133.6224.4733.3323.72226.9615.0732.91
10/1/9516.8189.905.5212.6018.0239.54195.2621.9310.4322.39294.8739.126.2059.3613.44120.835.658.87
1995 Ave15.88148.3712.4717.4020.6763.25264.7762.025.9913.33299.2463.3114.4450.9010.12126.886.3918.99
1/1/9612.72106.243.625.742.7237.50273.938.931.334.69270.4542.2611.8059.502.1085.063.597.90
4/1/9614.4777.904.919.785.3451.58135.4858.911.783.75128.6038.2515.3251.421.7774.681.2926.68
7/1/9619.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2910.4322.50503.02133.6224.4733.3323.77226.9615.0732.94
10/1/9616.8189.905.5212.6118.0239.54195.2621.9310.4322.39294.8739.126.2059.3613.57120.835.658.87
1996 Ave15.89148.3712.4717.4020.6763.26264.7762.025.9913.33299.2463.3114.4550.9010.30126.886.4019.10
1/1/9712.74106.293.625.832.7237.50273.938.931.334.69270.4542.2611.8059.502.1285.063.597.91
4/1/9714.4877.904.919.785.3451.58135.6158.911.783.75128.6038.2515.3251.421.7874.681.2926.70
7/1/9719.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2910.4322.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.78226.9615.1432.97
10/1/9716.8189.905.5212.6118.0239.54195.2621.9310.4322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.58120.835.658.93
1997 Ave15.90148.3812.4717.4220.6763.26264.8162.025.9913.33299.2463.3114.4950.9010.31126.886.4219.13
1/1/9812.74106.343.625.832.7237.50273.938.951.334.69270.4542.2611.8259.502.1885.063.597.95
4/1/9814.5377.904.919.795.3451.58135.6159.041.783.75128.6038.2515.3251.421.8474.691.2926.72
7/1/9819.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2911.0022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.78226.9915.1432.99
10/1/9816.8189.905.5212.6118.0239.54195.2621.9310.9022.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.59120.835.658.93
1998 Ave15.91148.4012.4717.4320.6763.26264.8162.056.2513.33299.2463.3114.4950.9010.35126.896.4219.15
1/1/9912.74106.343.705.832.7237.50273.938.971.744.69270.4542.2611.8259.502.2185.063.598.06
4/1/9914.5377.904.9810.245.3451.58135.6159.162.153.75128.6038.2515.3351.421.8574.691.2926.72
7/1/9919.59319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2911.0022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.78226.9915.1432.99
10/1/9916.8189.905.5212.7018.0239.54195.2696.3110.9022.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.59120.835.658.93
1999 Ave15.92148.4012.5117.5620.6763.26264.8180.686.4513.33299.2463.3114.4950.9010.36126.896.4219.17
1/1/0012.74106.343.706.112.7237.50273.9361.291.754.69270.4542.2611.8259.502.2185.063.598.08
4/1/0014.5677.904.9810.245.3451.62135.6159.162.163.75128.6038.2515.3351.421.8674.691.3126.80
7/1/0019.59319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2911.0022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.78226.9915.1433.00
10/1/0016.8189.905.5212.7018.0239.54195.2696.3110.9322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.59120.835.658.95
2000 Ave15.92148.4012.5117.6320.6763.27264.8193.766.4613.33299.2463.3114.4950.9010.36126.896.4219.21
1/1/0112.80106.343.706.112.7237.57273.9361.291.754.69270.4542.2611.8259.502.2285.583.598.10
4/1/0114.6177.905.0010.245.3451.62135.6159.162.163.75128.6038.3015.3351.421.8674.691.3126.83
7/1/0119.65319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2911.0022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.79226.9915.1433.26
10/1/0116.8890.555.5212.7018.0239.54195.2696.3110.9322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.60120.835.659.20
2001 Ave15.98148.5612.5117.6320.6763.29264.8193.766.4613.33299.2463.3214.4950.9010.37127.026.4219.35
1/1/0212.80106.343.796.112.7237.57273.9361.291.754.69270.4542.2611.8359.502.2385.583.618.19
4/1/0214.6477.905.0510.245.3451.62135.6159.162.183.75128.6038.3015.3351.421.8674.691.3126.95
7/1/0219.65319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43159.3911.0922.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.79226.9915.2133.43
10/1/0216.8890.555.6212.7018.0239.54195.2696.8810.9322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.60120.835.659.73
2002 Ave15.99148.5612.5717.6320.6763.29264.8194.186.4913.33299.2463.3214.5050.9010.37127.026.4419.57
1/1/0312.82106.343.796.112.7237.57273.9361.741.754.69270.4542.2611.8359.502.2485.773.618.32
4/1/0314.6577.905.0510.245.3451.62135.6160.282.183.75128.6838.3015.3351.421.8774.691.3127.06
7/1/0319.65319.4535.8441.4856.60124.42454.43159.3911.1022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.84226.9915.2133.50
10/1/0316.8890.765.6212.7018.0253.46195.2696.8810.9322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.66120.835.659.78
2003 Ave16.00148.6112.5717.6320.6766.77264.8194.576.4913.33299.2663.3214.5050.9010.40127.076.4419.67
1/1/0412.82106.343.796.112.7256.63273.9361.801.754.69270.4542.2611.8559.502.2585.773.618.38
4/1/0414.8277.905.0810.245.3490.02135.6160.282.183.75128.6838.3615.3351.421.8774.691.3127.12
2004 Ave
BasinCnspm Use Ave 2003
Deschutes16.00
Goose148.61
Grande Ronde12.57
Hood17.63
John Day20.67
Klamath66.77
Malheur264.81
Malheur Lake94.57
Mid Coast6.49
North Coast13.33
Owyhee299.26
Powder63.32
Rogue14.50
Sandy50.90
South Coast10.40
Umatilla127.07
Umpqua6.44
Willamette19.67
conflict
cooperation
year
drought index value
Willamette drought index
1
2
1
4
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
3
0
1
0
2
6
10
3
5
1
4
1
1
4
0
3
9
conflict
coop
year
drought index
Deschutes
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
3
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
conflict
cooperation
year
drought index
Sandy
0
0
4
3
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
conflict
year
drought index
Rogue
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
2
2
0
1
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
1
Oregon
conflict
cooperation
drought index average
Oregon v # of events
3
2
8
10
1
5
0
1
2
3
2
3
3
8
2
6
6
6
9
16
9
7
20
15
7
9
8
3
10
18
drought
conflict ave
coop ave
Year
Drought Index
-1.0363636364
0.3090909091
-2.2545454545
2
-0.2909090909
1.1090909091
0
0.0727272727
-0.6181818182
0.6545454545
-0.5272727273
0.4727272727
-0.8181818182
1.0363636364
-0.3636363636
0.7818181818
-1.4727272727
0.6
-1.9636363636
3.0545454545
-1.7454545455
1.4181818182
-5.4909090909
2.1454545455
-2.0363636364
1.8
-2.6363636364
0.6181818182
-1.5636363636
3.7818181818
drought index
# lawsuits
year
drought index average
number of lawsuits
Oregon drought v. lawsuits
10
31
7
1
10
9
15
13
18
37
28
62
26
26
44
-
Oregon Timeline
Phosphorus Ban Oregon Plan Biological Opinions
Local Watershed Management Plans
Source: Fesler, K. (2006) [Analysis of social interactions concerning Oregons water resources between 1990 and 2004.] Unpublished Data.
Chart3
-1.10185185190.3090909091-1.0363636364
-1.25694444442-2.2545454545
-2.11388888891.1090909091-0.2909090909
0.1120370370.07272727270
-1.71157407410.6545454545-0.6181818182
0.59583333330.4727272727-0.5272727273
1.05694444441.0363636364-0.8181818182
1.03518518520.7818181818-0.3636363636
0.74444444440.6-1.4727272727
0.85833333333.0545454545-1.9636363636
-0.18657407411.4181818182-1.7454545455
-2.43333333332.1454545455-5.4909090909
-0.74305555561.8-2.0363636364
-0.85555555560.6181818182-2.6363636364
-0.47027777783.7818181818-1.5636363636
Drought Index
Cooperative Average
Conflictive Average
Year
Drought Index
Average
Summary Stats
Summary StatsIn progress: inclusion of local eventsValues from Event db addntl
Group A is 1990-1996
Group B is origin 1996-1997
Group C is local 2004
Spectrum valuetitleoriginlocaltotalData Plotted in 'Strug Chart'
5Solidarity6510
4Alliance411253
3Assent262147184
2Agreement242448
1Similarity19726
0Neutral45216645
-1Difference283159
-2Disagreement18725135
-3Dispute20626
-4Litigation2222
-5Hostility33
total252134385
Total Events by Basin for 1990-2004
originlocaltotal
Willamette8218383
Mid Coast6717777
Klamath626262
Mahleur434343
Oregon212121
Rogue1631919
Deschutes1531862
Sandy151515
Federal1011111
Umpqua461010
South Coast5166
Umatilla555
John Day2355
Goose and Summer Lakes555
Owyhee222
Grande Ronde222
North Coast111
Total251134429
TotalSpectrum Value
BasinCoop (+5)Coop (+4)Coop (+3)Coop (+2)Coop (+1)Neut (0)Conf (-1)Conf (-2)Conf (-3)Conf (-4)Conf (-5)Total
Oregon1412126211021
Federal0201060101011
Deschutes0541241100018
Goose and Summer Lakes000110011105
Grande Ronde000000001102
John Day010012010005
Klamath127451211656362
Mahleur14662416310043
Mid Coast18141551112362077
North Coast000100000001
Owyhee000101000002
Rogue1214142031019
Sandy2212123101015
South Coast011100002106
Umatilla020002001005
Umpqua2410002100010
Willamette1161197166557083
Total105347482666592526223385
Total expont Weight Spectrum Averages: BasinCoop TotalCoop AveConf TotalConf AveEvent TotalTotal AveData Plotted in 'Strug Averages'Total AveCoop AveConf Ave
Oregon91.945454545510-0.7090909091210.6181818182Umpqua
Federal30.65454545452-0.3636363636110.1454545455North Coast
Deschutes122.21818181822-0.0909090909181.0636363636Deschutes
Goose20.09090909093-0.52727272735-0.2181818182Sandy
Grande Ronde002-0.45454545452-0.2272727273Owyhee
Hood
John Day20.30909090911-0.072727272750.1181818182Umatilla
Klamath192.563636363631-4.563636363661-1Mid Coast
Mahleur193.072727272720-0.6727272727431.2Willamette
Mahleur Lake
Mid Coast436.254545454523-2762.1272727273Mahleur
North Coast10.07272727270010.0363636364John Day
Owyhee10.07272727270020.0363636364Rogue
Powder
Rogue91.50909090916-0.8181818182190.3454545455South Coast
Sandy81.81818181825-0.4181818182140.7Klamath
South Coast30.52727272733-0.61818181826-0.0454545455Goose
Umatilla20.58181818181-0.163636363650.2090909091Grande Ronde
Umpqua72.23636363643-0.1090909091101.0636363636
Willamette447.690909090923-3.3272727273822.1818181818
Total184135381
Event Count
BasinStrong Coop (+4,+5)Mild Coop (+1,+2,+3)Neutral (0)Mild Conf (-1, -2,-3)Stong Conf (-4,-5)TotalCoopConfl% conflict extreme% coop extreme
State54291219104.76%23.81%4.00%
Federal2161111329.09%18.18%4.00%
Deschutes57420181220.00%27.78%0.00%
Goose and Summer Lakes0202152320.00%0.00%4.00%
Grande Ronde0001120250.00%0.00%4.00%
John Day112105210.00%20.00%0.00%
Klamath3161222962193114.52%4.84%36.00%
Mahleur51442004319200.00%11.63%0.00%
Mid Coast934112127743232.60%11.69%8.00%
North Coast010001100.00%0.00%0.00%
Owyhee011002100.00%0.00%0.00%
Rogue3645119965.26%15.79%4.00%
Sandy4424115856.67%26.67%4.00%
South Coast1202163316.67%16.67%4.00%
Umatilla202105210.00%40.00%0.00%
Umpqua6103010730.00%60.00%0.00%
Willamette1727161678344238.43%20.48%28.00%
385
Total6312166110253851841356.49%16.36%
Total: BasinCoop (+)Neutral (0)Confl (-)TotalData plotted in 'Basin'
Willamette44162383
Mid Coast43112377
Klamath19123162
Mahleur1942043
Rogue94619
Deschutes124218
Sandy82515
Umpqua70310
South Coast3036
Goose2035
John Day2215
Umatilla2215
Grande Ronde0022
Owyhee1102
North Coast1001
Oregon921021
Federal36211
Total18466135385
Data excludes local source searches to plot against drought index
Oregon (basin)ConflictCooperativeNeutralKlamathConflictCooperativeNeutraltotal
199019901001
199119911012
199219920000
199319930101
19941119940011
1995119950000
19961219960000
199719970011
19981219980000
199911119990000
20002120001001
20012001189431
2002120023339
2003120034318
200420043317
total31191262
WillamettetotalconflictcoopneutralDeschutestotalconflictcoopneutral
1990512219900000
1991814319911010
199210119920000
1993000019930000
1994000019941010
1995412119950000
1996513119964130
1997101019974031
1998202019980000
199917610119990000
20001035220000000
2001614120012110
2002211020021010
2003640220031001
20041539320041010
Total82Total15
RoguetotalconflictcoopneutralSandytotalconflictcoopneutral
1990000019900000
1991000019917430
1992000019921010
1993000019930000
1994000019940000
1995000019950000
1996000019960000
1997100119971010
1998532019980000
1999422019992020
2000201120000000
2001000020012002
2002202020022110
2003100120030000
2004101020040000
total16total15
OriginSpectrum Valuesdoes not include local events
YearCoop (+5)Coop (+4)Coop (+3)Coop (+2)Coop (+1)Neut (0)Conf (-1)Conf (-2)Conf (-3)Conf (-4)Conf (-5)total recheckTotal Events
19900100121200077
1991142035321202323
19920311000100066
19930001000000011
19940201031010088
19950110121001077
1996022131110101212
1997012213010101111
1998010410203101212
1999251713133202828
2000041113123301919
2001045157923424242
2002043203320111919
2003012007421101818
2004185226105403434
Total Spectrum44125231945281820213247247
Spectrum Ave for each yearCoopConfTotaltest
19900.3090909091-1.0363636364-0.3636363636
19912-2.2545454545-0.1272727273
19921.1090909091-0.29090909090.4090909091
19930.072727272700.0363636364
19940.6545454545-0.61818181820.0181818182
19950.4727272727-0.5272727273-0.0272727273
19961.0363636364-0.81818181820.1090909091
19970.7818181818-0.36363636360.2090909091
19980.6-1.4727272727-0.4363636364
19993.0545454545-1.96363636360.5454545455
20001.4181818182-1.7454545455-0.1636363636
20012.1454545455-5.4909090909-1.6727272727
20021.8-2.0363636364-0.1181818182
20030.6181818182-2.6363636364-1.0090909091
20043.7818181818-1.56363636361.1090909091
OriginNumber of events
YearCoop (+)Neut (0)Conf (-)Year TotalCases
1990223710
199110582331
199250167
199310011
1994332810
199532279
19968131215
19976321113
19986061218
199916392837
20007391928
2001157204262
20029371926
20033781826
2004186103444
337
TIMELINE
1999-4Oregon Plan
19994
drought
DateJan-1 1990Apr-1 1990Jul-1 1990Oct-1 1990Jan-1 1991Apr-1 1991Jul-1 1991Oct-1 1991Jan-1 1992Apr-1 1992Jul-1 1992Oct-1 1992Jan-1 1993Apr-1 1993Jul-1 1993Oct-1 1993Jan-1 1994Apr-1 1994Jul-1 1994Oct-1 1994Jan-1 1995Apr-1 1995Jul-1 1995Oct-1 1995Jan-1 1996Apr-1 1996Jul-1 1996Oct-1 1996Jan-1 1997Apr-1 1997Jul-1 1997Oct-1 1997Jan-1 1998Apr-1 1998Jul-1 1998Oct-1 1998Jan-1 1999Apr-1 1999Jul-1 1999Oct-1 1999Jan-1 2000Apr-1 2000Jul-1 2000Oct-1 2000Jan-1 2001Apr-1 2001Jul-1 2001Oct-1 2001Jan-1 2002Apr-1 2002Jul-1 2002Oct-1 2002Jan-1 2003Apr-1 2003Jul-1 2003Oct-1 2003Jan-1 2004Apr-1 2004Jul-1 2004Oct-1 2004Jan-1 2005
North CoastNorth Coast5-Mo Avg-1.4-0.90.20.0-0.3-1.10.5-0.5-1.2-1.9-2.3-1.5-0.5-1.2na0.4-2.3-1.6-0.9-1.11.01.60.20.31.81.40.90.71.60.50.22.41.8-0.3-0.7-1.20.62.81.0-0.40.10.5-0.10.2-2.1-3.3-1.60.00.50.2-0.4-1.3-1.50.0-0.4-1.4-0.4-1.1-1.830.20.63
Grane RondeGrande Ronde5-Mo Avg-0.2-1.4-0.8-0.8-0.5nana-0.8-0.8-1.7-2.9-2.4-1.5-0.9na1.70.0-1.1-1.4-2.0-1.10.51.11.51.41.01.00.91.52.22.01.90.5-0.10.61.31.11.60.90.40.20.60.1-0.7-0.8-2.8-3.0-3.2-1.7-0.7-1.5-1.9-2.0-1.6-1.3-1.5-1.4-0.7-1.17-1.24-1.57
UmatillaUmatilla5-Mo Avg-1.8-2.5-1.6-1.2-1.2-2.0-0.50.2-0.5-1.3-2.8-2.2-0.30.10.71.4-0.9-1.8-1.4-2.1-0.9-0.1-0.11.11.21.10.40.00.6na0.01.20.2-1.0-0.30.70.91.20.10.1-0.20.1-0.4-1.5-1.2-2.9-2.7-2.9-1.4-0.9-0.60.0-0.9-1.00.60.90.20.040.131.310.08
WillametteWillamette5-Mo Avg-1.9-1.2-0.6-0.8-0.6-1.5-0.8-0.4-0.4-1.4-2.1-1.9-0.60.00.80.4-2.3-2.0na-0.90.60.7-0.1-0.20.91.40.4-0.21.72.20.50.30.1-1.0-0.7-0.40.72.10.50.2-0.10.80.3-0.4-1.5-2.8-3.0-3.3-1.50.4-0.6-1.8-1.8-0.9-1.2-2.0-0.70.19-0.830.540.38
John DayUpper John Day5-Mo Avg-0.6-2.6-1.5-0.8-0.8-2.2-0.10.3-0.6-1.9-2.7-0.90.21.21.91.7-1.0-2.1-1.7-1.6-0.70.50.90.70.50.60.2-0.51.11.70.30.7-0.6-0.30.91.30.51.80.7-0.7-0.9-0.1-0.8-1.8-0.9-2.5-2.2-1.40.10.2-0.8-0.9-1.1-0.9-0.3-0.40.00.480.20.870.3
DeschutesUpper Deschutes5-Mo Avg-1.3-1.8-2.0-1.9-1.9-2.5-2.3-2.4-1.9-2.4-2.7-2.5-2.2-0.40.80.7-0.8-1.9-2.5-2.8nanana-0.7-0.50.31.21.72.02.31.82.41.40.31.52.31.82.21.01.81.51.01.01.30.5-1.5-1.6-0.8-0.20.2-0.5-1.0-1.0-0.9-0.7-0.8-0.30.03-0.290.01-0.27
HoodLower Deschutes5-Mo Avg-1.5-1.40.3-0.3-0.3-1.0-1.1-1.4-1.1-1.7-2.8-2.2-0.9-0.80.7-0.1-2.4-2.0-1.9-2.8-1.20.3-0.7-0.50.70.60.90.71.6nana3.11.1nana0.20.61.21.01.80.70.70.80.7nanananana1.21.40.8-2.0-1.5-1.4-1.7-0.7-0.45-0.810.850.18
SandyLower Deschutes5-Mo Avg-1.5-1.40.3-0.3-0.3-1.0-1.1-1.4-1.1-1.7-2.8-2.2-0.9-0.80.7-0.1-2.4-2.0-1.9-2.8-1.20.3-0.7-0.50.70.60.90.71.6nana3.11.1nana0.20.61.21.01.80.70.70.80.7nanananana1.21.40.8-2.0-1.5-1.4-1.7-0.7-0.45-0.810.850.18
PowderGrande Ronde5-Mo Avg-0.2-1.4-0.8-0.8-0.5nana-0.8-0.8-1.7-2.9-2.4-1.5-0.9na1.70.0-1.1-1.4-2.0-1.10.51.11.51.41.01.00.91.52.22.01.90.5-0.10.61.31.11.60.90.40.20.60.1-0.7-0.8-2.8-3.0-3.2-1.7-0.7-1.5-1.9-2.0-1.6-1.3-1.5-1.4-0.7-1.17-1.24-1.57
Mid CoastNorth Coast5-Mo Avg-1.4-0.90.20.0-0.3-1.10.5-0.5-1.2-1.9-2.3-1.5-0.5-1.2na0.4-2.3-1.6-0.9-1.11.01.60.20.31.81.40.90.71.60.50.22.41.8-0.3-0.7-1.20.62.81.0-0.40.10.5-0.10.2-2.1-3.3-1.60.00.50.2-0.4-1.3-1.50.0-0.4-1.4-0.4-1.1-1.830.20.63
MalheurMalheur5-Mo Avg-0.4-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.2-2.8-2.2-2.2-1.8-2.4nanana0.11.11.1-0.2-1.4-1.9-2.3-1.4-0.40.20.80.4na0.90.51.31.10.5na0.10.01.41.41.52.0nana0.00.50.4-0.2-0.8-1.8-1.8-1.4-0.7-0.5-1.3-1.8-1.9-1.6-1.2-1.9-1.7-0.35-0.66-0.85-1.14
Mal LakeHarney5-Mo Avg-0.7-2.9-2.3-1.7-1.5-2.6-1.2-0.9-0.8-2.3-3.0-2.00.11.31.91.5-0.7-2.3-1.9-2.5-0.91.00.91.1-0.20.70.6-0.30.71.10.0-0.1-1.20.31.31.50.71.40.9-0.4-1.5-0.8-1.3-1.9-2.0-2.2-2.0-1.4-0.10.2-1.4-1.8-1.9-1.9-0.9-0.6-0.60.47-0.53-0.20.13
UmpquaRogue & Umpqua5-Mo Avg-1.1-2.1-1.7-1.3-1.7-2.1-1.3-0.8-1.1-2.3-3.4-3.3-1.80.11.01.1-0.9-2.3-2.8-3.1-1.80.51.01.91.01.41.81.91.51.50.71.60.40.62.01.70.72.01.61.30.20.50.70.6-0.9-2.9-3.3-3.4-1.50.1-0.9-1.6-1.1-0.4-0.5-0.7-0.50.18-0.06-0.37-0.52
OwyheeOwyhee5-Mo Avg-0.3-1.1-1.0-1.1-1.6-2.1-1.5-1.6-1.4-2.6-3.3-3.2-1.70.41.10.7-0.6-1.8-2.0-2.3-1.20.10.61.20.40.70.80.51.11.70.90.9-0.2-0.10.71.40.70.80.90.3-0.7-0.3-1.0-1.1nanananana-0.5-1.3-1.6-1.7-2.1-2.4-2.4-1.7-0.48-1.16-1.29-0.89
GooseLake5-Mo Avg-0.1-1.7-2.0-1.9-2.3-2.8-2.0-2.5-2.3-2.6nanana0.01.70.5-1.3-1.6-2.3-2.6na0.41.3nanananana2.12.00.80.80.21.02.12.21.31.91.41.40.10.00.30.50.3-1.7-2.4-2.3-0.6-0.1-0.7-1.2-1.3-1.0-0.7-0.5-0.6-0.08-0.95-1.45-0.83
South CoastSouth Coast5-Mo Avgnanana2.11.1-0.10.00.1-1.0-2.6-1.6-2.2-2.00.01.52.70.5-1.0-0.9-1.9-0.91.11.31.20.41.21.10.41.11.2-0.6-1.0-1.30.41.22.32.01.20.10.5-0.2-0.6-1.5-1.9-2.3-3.6-2.2-1.3-0.60.72.02.70.61.22.22.80.9-0.94-2.52-0.80.75
KlamathKlamath5-Mo Avg-0.7-1.8na-1.6-2.1-2.9-2.4-2.6-2.5-2.8-3.5-3.4-2.20.00.6-0.1-1.3-2.4-2.9-3.2-2.3-0.30.60.5-0.21.51.30.71.21.70.80.90.51.12.32.31.62.11.51.40.60.60.60.0nanananana-0.4-2.0-2.6-2.2-1.7-1.8-2.2-2.0-1.19-2.02-2.55-1.94
RogueRogue & Umpqua5-Mo Avg-1.1-2.1-1.7-1.3-1.7-2.1-1.3-0.8-1.1-2.3-3.4-3.3-1.80.11.01.1-0.9-2.3-2.8-3.1-1.80.51.01.91.01.41.81.91.51.50.71.60.40.62.01.70.72.01.61.30.20.50.70.6-0.9-2.9-3.3-3.4-1.50.1-0.9-1.6-1.1-0.4-0.5-0.7-0.50.18-0.06-0.37-0.52
South CoastSouth Coast5-Mo Avgnanana2.11.1-0.10.00.1-1.0-2.6-1.6-2.2-2.00.01.52.70.5-1.0-0.9-1.9-0.91.11.31.20.41.21.10.41.11.2-0.6-1.0-1.30.41.22.32.01.20.10.5-0.2-0.6-1.5-1.9-2.3-3.6-2.2-1.3-0.60.72.02.70.61.22.22.80.9-0.94-2.52-0.80.75
(april 1990- jan 1991)
Yearly Averages199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
North Coast-0.3-0.6-1.6-1.0-0.71.01.21.2-0.40.9-0.4-1.1-0.8-0.6-0.53
Grane Ronde-0.9-0.8-2.10.3-1.41.11.11.70.70.8-0.2-2.7-1.5-1.5-1.17
Umatilla-1.6-0.7-1.70.3-1.60.50.50.50.10.3-0.8-2.5-0.60.20.39
Willamette-0.8-0.8-1.5-0.3-0.80.30.80.8-0.40.7-0.2-2.7-1.0-1.20.07
John Day-1.4-0.7-1.31.0-1.50.70.40.50.60.2-0.9-1.5-0.7-0.40.46
Deschutes-1.9-2.3-2.50.1-2.4-0.61.32.01.51.61.0-1.0-0.6-0.7-0.13
Hood-0.4-1.2-1.9-0.7-2.0-0.11.02.10.41.20.70.00.4-1.3-0.06
Sandy-0.4-1.2-1.9-0.7-2.0-0.11.02.10.41.20.70.00.4-1.3-0.06
Powder-0.9-0.8-2.10.3-1.41.11.11.70.70.8-0.2-2.7-1.5-1.5-1.17
Mid Coast-0.3-0.6-1.6-1.0-0.71.01.21.2-0.40.9-0.4-1.1-0.8-0.6-0.53
Malheur-2.1-2.3-2.40.5-1.80.30.90.61.11.0-0.0-1.4-1.4-1.6-0.75
Mal Lake-2.1-1.4-1.81.0-1.90.70.4-0.11.00.1-1.5-1.4-1.2-1.0-0.03
Umpqua-1.7-1.3-2.70.3-2.51.11.71.11.31.30.2-2.8-0.9-0.5-0.19
Owyhee-1.2-1.7-2.70.4-1.80.60.80.80.70.3-0.80.0-1.3-2.2-0.96
Goose-2.0-2.4-2.60.2-2.20.92.11.01.71.20.3-1.8-0.8-0.7-0.83
South Coast1.6-0.3-2.11.2-1.21.01.0-0.41.50.4-1.6-1.91.51.8-0.88surrogate K 2001 value found by average of nearby basins
Klamath-1.8-2.6-3.0-0.2-2.70.21.21.01.81.40.4-2.1-1.8-1.9-1.93-2.08125
Rogue-1.7-1.3-2.70.3-2.51.11.71.11.31.30.2-2.8-0.9-0.5-0.19
South Coast1.6-0.3-2.11.2-1.21.01.0-0.41.50.4-1.6-1.91.51.8-0.88
Oregon-1.1-1.3-2.10.1-1.70.61.11.00.70.9-0.2-2.4-0.7-0.9-0.5
basins surrounding K: R, UQ, D, GS
may be used to form surrogate drought index value for 2001
TOTAL0
drought
10
10
00
01
00
00
00
00
00
00
10
189
33
43
33
drought index
conflict
cooperate
year
drought value
Klamath drought index
consmp use
DateDeschutesGooseGrande RondeHoodJohn DayKlamathMalheurMalheur LakeMid CoastNorth CoastOwyheePowderRogueSandySouth CoastUmatillaUmpquaWillamette
1/1/9312.72106.153.625.742.5637.50273.938.931.054.68270.4542.2611.8059.501.6485.063.537.60
4/1/9314.4477.794.919.785.3151.50135.4858.911.473.73128.6038.1915.2751.421.3274.621.2326.40
7/1/9319.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.34454.43158.2910.2922.40503.02133.6224.4233.3323.17226.9615.0031.66
10/1/9316.8189.905.5212.6018.0239.52195.2621.9310.4222.39294.8739.126.2059.3612.77120.825.567.99
1993 Ave15.88148.3212.4717.4020.6263.22264.7762.025.8113.30299.2463.3014.4250.909.73126.866.3318.41
1/1/9412.72106.153.625.742.7237.50273.938.931.264.69270.4542.2611.8059.501.7785.063.537.66
4/1/9414.4477.794.919.785.3151.50135.4858.911.763.75128.6038.1915.2751.421.3874.621.2326.45
7/1/9419.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.34454.43158.2910.3122.50503.02133.6224.4233.3323.25226.9615.0732.13
10/1/9416.8189.905.5212.6018.0239.52195.2621.9310.4322.39294.8739.126.2059.3613.10120.825.568.13
1994 Ave15.88148.3212.4717.4020.6663.22264.7762.025.9413.33299.2463.3014.4250.909.87126.866.3518.59
1/1/9512.72106.243.625.742.7237.50273.938.931.334.69270.4542.2611.8059.501.8585.063.587.70
4/1/9514.4477.904.919.785.3451.54135.4858.911.783.75128.6038.2515.2751.421.4674.681.2826.50
7/1/9519.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2910.4322.50503.02133.6224.4733.3323.72226.9615.0732.91
10/1/9516.8189.905.5212.6018.0239.54195.2621.9310.4322.39294.8739.126.2059.3613.44120.835.658.87
1995 Ave15.88148.3712.4717.4020.6763.25264.7762.025.9913.33299.2463.3114.4450.9010.12126.886.3918.99
1/1/9612.72106.243.625.742.7237.50273.938.931.334.69270.4542.2611.8059.502.1085.063.597.90
4/1/9614.4777.904.919.785.3451.58135.4858.911.783.75128.6038.2515.3251.421.7774.681.2926.68
7/1/9619.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2910.4322.50503.02133.6224.4733.3323.77226.9615.0732.94
10/1/9616.8189.905.5212.6118.0239.54195.2621.9310.4322.39294.8739.126.2059.3613.57120.835.658.87
1996 Ave15.89148.3712.4717.4020.6763.26264.7762.025.9913.33299.2463.3114.4550.9010.30126.886.4019.10
1/1/9712.74106.293.625.832.7237.50273.938.931.334.69270.4542.2611.8059.502.1285.063.597.91
4/1/9714.4877.904.919.785.3451.58135.6158.911.783.75128.6038.2515.3251.421.7874.681.2926.70
7/1/9719.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2910.4322.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.78226.9615.1432.97
10/1/9716.8189.905.5212.6118.0239.54195.2621.9310.4322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.58120.835.658.93
1997 Ave15.90148.3812.4717.4220.6763.26264.8162.025.9913.33299.2463.3114.4950.9010.31126.886.4219.13
1/1/9812.74106.343.625.832.7237.50273.938.951.334.69270.4542.2611.8259.502.1885.063.597.95
4/1/9814.5377.904.919.795.3451.58135.6159.041.783.75128.6038.2515.3251.421.8474.691.2926.72
7/1/9819.57319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2911.0022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.78226.9915.1432.99
10/1/9816.8189.905.5212.6118.0239.54195.2621.9310.9022.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.59120.835.658.93
1998 Ave15.91148.4012.4717.4320.6763.26264.8162.056.2513.33299.2463.3114.4950.9010.35126.896.4219.15
1/1/9912.74106.343.705.832.7237.50273.938.971.744.69270.4542.2611.8259.502.2185.063.598.06
4/1/9914.5377.904.9810.245.3451.58135.6159.162.153.75128.6038.2515.3351.421.8574.691.2926.72
7/1/9919.59319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2911.0022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.78226.9915.1432.99
10/1/9916.8189.905.5212.7018.0239.54195.2696.3110.9022.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.59120.835.658.93
1999 Ave15.92148.4012.5117.5620.6763.26264.8180.686.4513.33299.2463.3114.4950.9010.36126.896.4219.17
1/1/0012.74106.343.706.112.7237.50273.9361.291.754.69270.4542.2611.8259.502.2185.063.598.08
4/1/0014.5677.904.9810.245.3451.62135.6159.162.163.75128.6038.2515.3351.421.8674.691.3126.80
7/1/0019.59319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2911.0022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.78226.9915.1433.00
10/1/0016.8189.905.5212.7018.0239.54195.2696.3110.9322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.59120.835.658.95
2000 Ave15.92148.4012.5117.6320.6763.27264.8193.766.4613.33299.2463.3114.4950.9010.36126.896.4219.21
1/1/0112.80106.343.706.112.7237.57273.9361.291.754.69270.4542.2611.8259.502.2285.583.598.10
4/1/0114.6177.905.0010.245.3451.62135.6159.162.163.75128.6038.3015.3351.421.8674.691.3126.83
7/1/0119.65319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43158.2911.0022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.79226.9915.1433.26
10/1/0116.8890.555.5212.7018.0239.54195.2696.3110.9322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.60120.835.659.20
2001 Ave15.98148.5612.5117.6320.6763.29264.8193.766.4613.33299.2463.3214.4950.9010.37127.026.4219.35
1/1/0212.80106.343.796.112.7237.57273.9361.291.754.69270.4542.2611.8359.502.2385.583.618.19
4/1/0214.6477.905.0510.245.3451.62135.6159.162.183.75128.6038.3015.3351.421.8674.691.3126.95
7/1/0219.65319.4435.8441.4856.60124.42454.43159.3911.0922.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.79226.9915.2133.43
10/1/0216.8890.555.6212.7018.0239.54195.2696.8810.9322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.60120.835.659.73
2002 Ave15.99148.5612.5717.6320.6763.29264.8194.186.4913.33299.2463.3214.5050.9010.37127.026.4419.57
1/1/0312.82106.343.796.112.7237.57273.9361.741.754.69270.4542.2611.8359.502.2485.773.618.32
4/1/0314.6577.905.0510.245.3451.62135.6160.282.183.75128.6838.3015.3351.421.8774.691.3127.06
7/1/0319.65319.4535.8441.4856.60124.42454.43159.3911.1022.50503.02133.6224.5733.3323.84226.9915.2133.50
10/1/0316.8890.765.6212.7018.0253.46195.2696.8810.9322.39294.8739.126.2559.3613.66120.835.659.78
2003 Ave16.00148.6112.5717.6320.6766.77264.8194.576.4913.33299.2663.3214.5050.9010.40127.076.4419.67
1/1/0412.82106.343.796.112.7256.63273.9361.801.754.69270.4542.2611.8559.502.2585.773.618.38
4/1/0414.8277.905.0810.245.3490.02135.6160.282.183.75128.6838.3615.3351.421.8774.691.3127.12
2004 Ave
BasinCnspm Use Ave 2003
Deschutes16.00
Goose148.61
Grande Ronde12.57
Hood17.63
John Day20.67
Klamath66.77
Malheur264.81
Malheur Lake94.57
Mid Coast6.49
North Coast13.33
Owyhee299.26
Powder63.32
Rogue14.50
Sandy50.90
South Coast10.40
Umatilla127.07
Umpqua6.44
Willamette19.67
conflict
cooperation
year
drought index value
Willamette drought index
1
2
1
4
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
3
0
1
0
2
6
10
3
5
1
4
1
1
4
0
3
9
conflict
coop
year
drought index
Deschutes
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
3
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
conflict
cooperation
year
drought index
Sandy
0
0
4
3
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
conflict
year
drought index
Rogue
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
2
2
0
1
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
1
Oregon
conflict
cooperation
drought index average
Oregon v # of events
3
2
8
10
1
5
0
1
2
3
2
3
3
8
2
6
6
6
9
16
9
7
20
15
7
9
8
3
10
18
drought
conflict ave
coop ave
Year
Drought Index
-1.0363636364
0.3090909091
-2.2545454545
2
-0.2909090909
1.1090909091
0
0.0727272727
-0.6181818182
0.6545454545
-0.5272727273
0.4727272727
-0.8181818182
1.0363636364
-0.3636363636
0.7818181818
-1.4727272727
0.6
-1.9636363636
3.0545454545
-1.7454545455
1.4181818182
-5.4909090909
2.1454545455
-2.0363636364
1.8
-2.6363636364
0.6181818182
-1.5636363636
3.7818181818
drought index
# lawsuits
year
drought index average
number of lawsuits
Oregon drought v. lawsuits
10
31
7
1
10
9
15
13
18
37
28
62
26
26
44
-
Four Worlds Framework: Four Needs and Four Claims
Physical Positions
Emotional Interests
Perceptual Values
Spiritual Harmony
NEEDS FOR: Intrapersonal Interpersonal Groups Nations
CLAIMS: Expressions of needs in negotiations
-
Vishnus 4 totems
mace physical strength lotus flower glory of existence discus mind chakra conch OM: primeval sound
of all creation
-
East South
North West
Men
Women
Father sky
Mother earth
Physical Mental
Emotional Spiritual
Objective
Subjective
Medicine Wheel from Shoshone-Bannock and Oglala Lakota Traditions Source: Sammy Matsaw Jr. 2016
-
Four-Fold Matrix Adversarial Physical Positions Serpent
Reflexive Emotional Interests Jaguar
Integrative Intuitive Values Humming-bird
Action Spiritual Unity/ Alignment
Eagle
-
Four Worlds Framework: Four Needs and Four Claims
Physical Positions
Emotional Interests
Perceptual Values
Spiritual Harmony
NEEDS FOR: Intrapersonal Interpersonal Groups Nations
CLAIMS: Expressions of needs in negotiations
-
Thank you!
-
Issue: Water Allocations Positions: Israel water allocations, Palestinians water rights Interests: Values: Solution:
-
Issue: Water Allocations Positions: Israel water allocations, Palestinians water rights Interests: Israel wants to problem-solve, Palestine wants history recognized Values: Respect, sovereignty Solution: ???
-
Issue: Water Allocations Positions: Israel water allocations, Palestinians water rights Interests: Israel wants to problem-solve, Palestine wants history recognized Values: Respect, sovereignty Solution: Rightful Allocations
-
Issue: Transboundary EIA Positions: 3 countries in favor, 1 against Interests: Values: Solution:
-
Issue: Transboundary EIA Positions: 3 countries in favor, 1 against Interests: Lack of capacity Values: Equity, Respect Solution: ??
-
Issue: Transboundary EIA Positions: 3 countries in favor, 1 against Interests: Lack of capacity Values: Equity, Respect Solution: Capacity-building workshops
-
Kura-Araks
Extremely poor relations (none between Azerbaijan and Armenia)
Quality degradation - legacy of Soviet Union
-
Issue: Shared Data Positions: All need basin model, Azerbaijan & Armenia will not collaborate Interests: Values: Solution:
-
Issue: Shared Data Positions: All need basin model, Azerbaijan & Armenia will not collaborate Interests: 2 countries have territorial dispute; both have relations with Georgia Values: Sovereignty, healthy environment Solution: ???
-
Issue: Shared Data Positions: All need basin model, Azerbaijan & Armenia will not collaborate Interests: 2 countries have territorial dispute; both have relations with Georgia Values: Sovereignty, healthy environment Solution: Crafted policy of parallel bilateralism to map and manage quality hotspots through 3rd party
-
The Amu-Darya River Basin
-
Tupalang
Tajikistan
Nurek Dam
Uzbekistan
Surkhandarya region
.
/ -. 1409
/ -
/
Rogun Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant
-
Issue: Upstream Dam Positions: Tajikistan yes, Uzbekistan no. Interests: Values: Solution: ??
-
Issue: Upstream Dam Positions: Tajikistan yes, Uzbekistan no. Interests: Power for heating (winter) and export, water for irrigation (summer) Uzbekistan has natural gas World Bank reports that smaller dam more efficient Values: Respect, sovereignty, economic growth Solution: ???
-
Tupalang
Tajikistan
Nurek Dam
Uzbekistan
Surkhandarya region
.
/ -. 1409
/ -
/
Rogun Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant
-
Issue: Upstream Dam Positions: Tajikistan yes, Uzbekistan no. Interests: Power for heating (winter) and export, water for irrigation (summer) Values: Respect, sovereignty, economic growth Solution: Smaller dam, payment for storage, natural gas upstream, water downstream, use of regulating dam
-
Kabbalah of Conflict
-
Balance in Conflict
Universal?
Justice/Self Mercy/Other
Compassion
Anger/ The Other Side
-
Yin Yang
-
Balance in Conflict
Justice/Self Mercy/Other
Compassion
Anger/ The Other Side
-
Active & Transformational Listening
-
Balance in Conflict
Justice/Self Mercy/Other
Compassion
Anger/ The Other Side
Listen! Observe -- detach from interpretations Emotion protects vulnerability (4 worlds) Listen transformatively Engage from understanding
-
Listening Active Listening
Paying Attention Body Language Separate out cultural, personal differences
Eliciting Ask. Ask (non-threatening) questions. Useful both to better understand the speaker, and also to reassure them that you are really listening;
Reflecting Repeat main points. This lets the speaker know that they have really been heard, a powerful psychological message, as well as helping to focus the dialogue; "I" not "you" statements. Future, not history.
-
Balance in Conflict
Justice/Self Mercy/Other
Compassion
Anger/ The Other Side
Listen! Observe -- detach from interpretations Emotion protects vulnerability (4 worlds) Listen transformatively Engage from understanding
-
Listening Active Listening
Paying Attention Eliciting Reflecting
Transformative Listening Space Tracking Offer without insisting Check for completeness
Most will listen once listened to Transformation dissipates anger, allows for empathy Helps understand interests behind positions (anger masks pain or vulnerability)
Water Conflict Management & TransformationSlide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Events Database, ExampleNumber of Events by BAR Scale 1948-2008Number of Media Reported Events in Oregon along a Cooperation- Conflict Spectrum from 1990 to 2004BASINS AT RISK: Working HypothesisSlide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Oregon TimelineOregon TimelineSlide Number 16Four Worlds Framework:Four Needs and Four ClaimsSlide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Four-Fold MatrixSlide Number 26Four Worlds Framework:Four Needs and Four ClaimsSlide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Slide Number 35Slide Number 36Slide Number 37Slide Number 38Slide Number 39Slide Number 40Slide Number 41Slide Number 42Slide Number 43Slide Number 44Slide Number 45Slide Number 46Slide Number 47Slide Number 48Kabbalah of ConflictBalance in ConflictYin YangSlide Number 52Slide Number 53Balance in ConflictActive & Transformational ListeningSlide Number 56Balance in ConflictListeningSlide Number 59Balance in ConflictListening