connecticut aaham what do the mid-term elections really mean thursday, november 13, 2014
TRANSCRIPT
Connecticut AAHAM
What Do the Mid-Term Elections Really Mean
Thursday, November 13, 2014
• What Happened in the House
• What Happened in the Senate
• What Happened in Key Governors Races
• What Do Results Mean to 2016 Race for the White House
• What Do Results Mean For Healthcare Reform
• Where Are We With the TCPA
ONLY MANDATE IS VOTERS ARE TIRED OF GRIDLOCK
What Happened?
All major polls were
WAY off the mark
What Happened In The House:
• Republicans pick up 14 seats and expand their majority (68 seat majority)
• 2010 redistricting made it VERY hard for Republicans to lose control– You would have needed major catostrophic turn of events for
Democrats to repeat what Republicans pulled off in 2010 by winning 63 seats
– House more partisan than ever before– Tea Party in 2010 made comprising in the House difficult– 2014 Republicans elected more conservative members– President has lost 70 House seats during his Administration– Democrats lost for two main reasons:
• Messaging – saw as one trick pony focusing on social issues that didn’t work
• President popularity at 40% - this has frustrated key Democratic constituencies and House Democrats
– Hispanics did not turn out for Democrats in the numbers they needed
What Happened In The House:
Democrats not all bad news (over long-term):• Small group of Democratic operatives focusing on winning state level
elections so they can control redistricting next time• 2016 could mean Democrats win some of the seats back they lost this
cycle due to a bad year
Keys to Republican success:• Speaker Boehner has new hop in his step. He has raised over
$80 million for candidates since 2012. Could see keeping Tea Party in check
• House leadership conservative, but willing to deal• Speaker Boehner, Majority Leader McCarthy and Majority
Whip Scalise willing to begin talking about more controversial issue for Republicans
• Technology – Republicans have copied Pres. Obama use of technology targeting votes and rallying voters
New House Make-Up
Democratic
Republican
Undecided*
Democratic
Republican
Undecided*
Democratic
Republican
Undecided*Democrats: 175Republicans: 243Independents: 0Undecided: 17
Analysis• Republicans won a total of at least 243 seats in the House, their largest majority since 1928• An expanded GOP majority in the House means that Speaker Boehner will have an easier time passing
legislation in the House without Democratic support, and Republicans will also have an easier time holding on to their majority in future elections
What Happened In The Senate:
• Became a GOP Wave (even with the losses suffered by GOP)
• Biggest surprises in my opinion:– NH race where Sen. Jeanne Shaheen ran stellar race and almost
lost to former MA Senator Scott Brown (52-48%)– NH race closer than most thought. Brown closed the gap last 72-
hours– Shaheen hurt by Presidents low approval ratings– Brown hurt a bit by carpetbagger view early on, but in closing
hours did not hurt him– Senate race in VA between incumbent MARK Warner and former
Bush ally Ed Gillespie– This should not have been close– Gillespie ran heck of a campaign and now puts VA in play for
Republicans in 2016 race for WH (49-48% - recount likely)– CO race between incumbent Mark Udall and Rep. Cory Gardner –
not surprised by outcome just the % (Gardner wins by 7%)– How off the polls were – races not as close as expected
OH
WV VA
PA
NY
ME
NC
SC
GA
TN
KY
IN
MIWI
MN
IL
LATX
OK
ID
NV
OR
WA
CA
AZNM
CO
WY
MT ND
SD
IA
UT
FL
AR
MO
MS AL
NE
KS
VT
NHMA
RICT
NJ
DEMD
HI
2 Democrats
2 Republicans
1 Democrat + 1
Republican
1 Democrat + 1
Independent
1 Republican + 1
Independent
Undecided/Runoff
2 Democrats
2 Republicans
1 Democrat + 1
Republican
1 Democrat + 1
Independent
1 Republican + 1
Independent
Undecided/Runoff
May take until Nov. 18th to count all votes
AK
Runoff election will be held on
December 6, 2014
Democrats: 44Republicans: 52
Independents: 1Undecided: 2
Analysis• Having won most of this year’s competitive races, Republicans secured at least 52 Senate seats on
election night, flipping the Senate from blue to red• Additional GOP wins in Louisiana and Alaska are still possible• If Republicans eventually expand their majority to 54 seats, they will have an easier time passing
legislation in the Senate because they will need fewer Democratic defections to overcome filibusters (which require a 60 vote supermajority)
Senate Results: A Retrospective
Seats HeldBefore Elections
Number ofIncumbents
DefeatedOpen Seats Won
Seats HeldAfter Elections
Year D R I D R I D R I D R I
2000 46 54 0 1 5 0 1 1 0 50 50 0
2002 49 49 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 47 52 0
2004 48 51 0 1 0 0 2 5 0 44 55 0
2006 44 55 1 0 6 0 0 0 0 49 49 0
2008 49 49 2 0 4 0 3 0 0 56 41 2
2010 57 41 2 2 0 0 0 4 0 51 47 2
2012 51 47 2 0 1 0 2 1 1 53 45 2
2014 53 45 2 3 1 0 1 7 0 44** 52** 2
Senate Results: A Retrospective
What Happened In The Senate:
• Hispanic and young people didn’t show up for Democrats
• Now comes hard part of governing for GOP
• Which party will show-up: Antagonistic or solution driven?
• Republicans have 6-months to prove they are serious or they risk alienating voters and you can expect Dem control again in 2016.
• Republicans have to defend 24 versus Democrats 10
• Republican majority could be short-lived– Does Ted Cruz wing force very conservative agenda– Can Mitch McConnell cut deals and hold control of Senate– Does 2016 Presidential race derail progress on key issues
• Sen. Angus King (I-ME) could caucus with Republicans and possibly moderate Dem Sen. Joe Manchin (WV) who is no fan of the President
Republicans Extend Gubernatorial Advantage
OH
WV VA
PA
NY
ME
NC
SC
GA
TN
KY
IN
MIWI
MN
IL
LATX
OK
ID
NV
OR
WA
CA
AZNM
CO
WY
MT ND
SD
IA
UT
FL
AR
MO
MS AL
NE
KS
VT
NH
RI
NJ
DEMD
AK
HI
Democrats: 18Republicans: 31Independents: 0Undecided: 3
Dem Governor
GOP Governor
Undecided*
Analysis• While Republicans already controlled most governors’ mansions prior to 2014 elections, gains in
Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Connecticut added to the GOP’s sizeable majority of governorships
• Legislative activity at the state level has taken on increased importance in recent years due to gridlock at the federal level; as such, increased GOP control of governorships nationwide could give Republicans additional leverage to achieve policy goals at the state level
What Happened By the Numbers:
– 88% of voters in KY said control of Senate was most important reason for their vote
– McConnell as unpopular as President, but control of Senate mattered more
– McConnell won 54% of independent voters in KY
– 54% disagree with President handling of economy– 78% disapprove of Congress handling of issues– 65% of voters believe we are on wrong track
– 12% of young people voted
What Happened By the Numbers:
Unmarried women: Voting 61-37 percent for the Democrats in the House. These numbers mark a significant shift in the way unmarried women voted this year. This 24-point margin is the slimmest advantage for Democrats in this group in available data back to 1992.
White men: 59% Rep and 39% Dem (75% of the total vote)
Voters under age 30: Voting Democratic by a 13-point margin, 55-42 percent. This compares to 60-38 percent in 2012. Young voters’ share of the electorate is down from 19 percent in 2012 to 12 percent in 2014.
Seniors: Voting Republican by 56-43 percent, and there are many more of them than young voters. This group has grown by 7 percent, making it 24 percent of the electorate is seniors, up from 17 percent in 2012.
Hispanic Voters: 64% Dem and 34% Rep - 25.2 million Hispanic’s are eligible to vote. (8% total vote)
African Americans: 90% Dem and 9% Rep (12% total vote)
Asian Americans: 52% Dem and 48% Rep (3% total vote)
What Do Mid-Term Results Mean to 2016 Race for the White House
What Do Mid-Term Results Mean for Congress and President
• Republican House and Senate may force President to cut deals to secure a positive legacy
• Republican House and Senate may force Republicans to cut deals with President in effort to keep majority and have a shot at WH in 2016
• Neither side budges and you have continued stalemate
• Democrats abandon President and push their own agenda trying to force his hand – Democrats feel a bit left on the side with Presidents failure to put his muscle behind their top priorities
• Industry has to target Congress early and push aggressively to get its issues on the agenda and to the floor for votes.
What Do Mid-Term Results Mean to 2016 Race for the White House
What Do Mid-Term Results Mean to 2016 Race for the White House
If You’re a Democrat, Here Is Your Choice (Right Now)
I’m watching So am I
President needs me now
What Do Mid-Term Results Mean to 2016 Race for the White House
VP ”Smokin” Joe Biden Gov. Martin O’Malley Sen. Elizabeth Warren Sen. Amy Klobuchar
Sen. Bernie SandersSen. Kirsten Gillibrand Gov. Andrew Cuomo
What Do Results Mean For Healthcare Reform
• Will be push by some in GOP to force repeal votes on ACA
• More logical solution will be if Republicans offer “fixes” to ACA
• House has been meeting for past 6-months drafting solutions I would expect them to unveil early in 2015
• Healthcare will be front and center
• Issues still at issue:– Continuing increases in healthcare costs– Employer mandate– Cadillac plans– High deductible plans– Year 2 coverage – will people continue to pay premiums
AAHAM’s TCPA Efforts
• Effort started 3-years ago• 2012: Lack of knowledge in Congress• 2013: More support and understanding, but nothing concrete• 2014: Congressional support and action
– Rep. Blackburn sent letter to FCC signed by several other House members urging rule-making
– AAHAM is working with several other lawmakers on possible legislative solution in 2015
– FCC Commissioner O’Reilly comes out touting the need to look at modernizing TCPA
– AAHAM met with FCC staff on several occasions to layout case for industry change
– AAHAM files FCC petition requesting clarification on TCPA
Paul A. Miller
Miller/Wenhold Capitol Strategies
P: (703) 383-1330
C: (703) 930-7790
W: www.mwcapitol.com
Twitter: @mwcapitolFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/Paul.Miller.MWCapitol