connecticut’s declining prison population

Connecticut’s Declining Prison Population:Some contributing factors

Presented to:CJPAC

September 29, 2016

Research and Evaluation Unit, Criminal Justice Division, OPM

CT’s prison population since 2008

Since February 1, 2008*, the total prison has contracted by 4,871 prisoners (19,894 to 15,023), a 24% decline.

During the same period, the state’s sentenced-prison population declined by 3,816 prisoners (14,998 to 11,182), a 27% drop.

* The state’s prison population hit its historic peak in February 2008.

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CT’s prison population since 1997

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Wom

enMen

Men Women

John Rowland Jodi Rell Dannel Malloy

John Armstrong Theresa Lantz B. Murphy L. Arnone J. Dzurenda S. SempleGovernorDOC Comm.

DOC transfers 500 prisoners

to VA

Last CT prisoner returns from VA

ACLU sues over conditions at VA prisons

Michael Ross executed

Cheshire murders

TOP program opens

RREC implemented DUI home

confinement

DOC population peaks at 19,894 Raise the

age for 16-year olds

Raise the age for 17-year olds

Prisoner re-entry center opens at Cybulski

Marijuana decriminalization

2nd Chance Act

The DOC population since 2008

2 Governors and 5 DOC Commissioners We can point to no single factor that can explain CT’s

declining prison population There were many contributing factors to the reduced

prison count, several will be highlighted here: Declining crime rates Fewer arrests Fewer admits

New people 2014 Recidivism

Raise the age legislation Reduced penalties for narcotics possession DUI home confinement Parole Board reforms, increasing community caseloads Re-integration Center and CRU

Reported Crime in CT

Between 2008 and 2015: Property crime in CT dropped by 24.8% Violent crime declined by 26.4%

87,442 82,712 78,519 77,445 77,380 71,191 69,351 65,778

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Property crimes

10,768 10,532 10,077 9,887 10,167 9,107 8,495 7,925

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Violent crimes

21,664(-24.8%)

2,843(-26.4%)

Source: DESPP, CT UCR data

Arrests and arraignments in CT

Between 2009 and 2016*, statewide criminal arrests* have declined by 31%. Arraignments were down by 19%.

117,196 124,249114,156 114,789

101,065 94,856 90,310 84,703 85,669

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Arrests38,580(-31.0%)

* Arrest data from OBTS – arrests with new dockets

43,121 42267 40708 37571 37805 36893 36148 34,869

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Arraignments8,252(-19.2%)

Arrests in CT

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

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80,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Arrests by some major crime types

Violent Burglary Drug related Larceny Simple assault

Crime type 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % changeViolent 6,902 5,515 5,486 4,950 4,770 4,463 4,019 3,557 -48%

Burglary 3,230 2,974 2,947 2,873 2,947 2,366 2,421 1,956 -39%

Drug related 18,304 17,791 17,581 13,980 10,331 10,554 9,943 8,981 -51%

Larceny 14,957 15,405 14,194 14,388 14,655 13,830 13,904 12,669 -15%

Simple assault 24,236 24,804 24,312 23,600 22,957 20,910 18,757 17,309 -29%

Fewer arrests, fewer prison admissions

Admissions to DOC facilities have been dropping steadily since 2008 Total admits are down 30.3% Pre-trial admits are down 29.3%

33180 31452 30036 27429 27338 26155 24950 23521 23108

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 est.

All prison admits

23,958 22,298 21,52319,211 19,464 18,744 18,097 16,908 16,940

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Pre-trial admits

10,072(-30.3%)

7,018(-29.3%)

Fewer new people entering prison each year

3,066 2,853 2,838 2,501 2,708 2,633 2,545 2,130

3,4803,000

2,5802,236 2,100 1,863 1,825

1,384

0

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7,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

New

pre

-tria

l adm

itees25 and older Under 25

Percent change in the number of new persons admitted to DOC on pre-trial status, 2008 to 2014:

All persons: - 33% (6,546 to 4,370)Persons under 25: - 48% (3,480 to 1,825)Persons 25 and older: -17% (3,066 to 2,545)

New persons admitted to the CT DOC on pre-trial status, age quintiles

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38 to 91

-75%

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0%

14 to 19 20 to 23 24 to 28 29 to 37 38 to 91

** 38 to 91 quintile: 51% were 45 or younger; 98% were 65 or younger

Fewer new people are entering the prison system each year…

Raise the age: Incarceration and arrests

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<16 16-17 18-21 22-29 30-39 >40Prisoners by Age Group

2009 2010 2011 2012

2013 2014 2015 2016

10130

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26139

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33997

8345

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25693

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<16 16-17 18-21 22-29 30-39 >40Arrestees by Age Group

2008 2009 2010 2011

2012 2013 2014 2015

Raise the age: Incarceration and arrests

Age 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016% change

2009 to 2016<16 25 10 9 15 8 11 17 5 -80%16-17 307 207 152 136 92 61 65 71 -77%18-21 2,067 1,952 1,732 1,510 1,391 1,167 1,011 943 -54%22-29 5,498 5,413 5,120 4,802 4,894 4,740 4,573 4,211 -23%30-39 5,446 5,235 4,937 4,750 4,927 4,981 4,929 4,788 -12%>40 5,548 5,614 5,681 5,378 5,676 5,591 5,430 5,324 -4%Total 18,891 18,431 17,631 16,591 16,988 16,551 16,025 15,342 -19%

Age 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015% change

2008 to 2015<16 10,130 8,345 7,402 6,104 5,703 5,069 4,528 3,878 -62%16-17 11,813 10,387 8,419 6,987 6,121 5,131 4,911 4,290 -64%18-21 26,139 25,693 24,375 21,398 18,508 16,167 14,567 12,422 -52%22-29 36,522 36,014 35,601 33,285 32,712 31,658 30,783 28,856 -21%30-39 26,880 25,319 25,083 23,757 23,922 23,470 23,866 23,318 -13%>40 33,997 33,509 33,010 31,447 31,615 30,109 29,290 27,156 -20%Total 145,481 139,267 133,890 122,978 118,581 111,604 107,945 99,920 -31%

Reduced penalties for narcotics possession

229 fewer people, with a narcotics-possession-related controlling offense, were in prison in September 2016 than in October 2015. Total drop: 44.9% Sentenced drop: 39.9% Pre-trial drop: 54.2%

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Nov. 25 2015

Dec. 2, 2015Dec. 9 2015Dec. 16, 2015Dec. 23, 2015Dec. 30, 2015Jan. 6, 2016Jan. 13, 2016Jan. 20, 2016Jan. 27, 2016Feb. 3, 2016Feb. 10, 2016Feb. 17, 2016Feb. 24, 2016M

ar. 2, 2016M

ar. 9, 2016M

ar. 16, 2016M

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ar. 30, 2016Apr. 6, 1026Apr. 13, 2016Apr. 20, 2016Apr. 27, 2016M

ay 4, 2016M

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ay 18, 2016M

ay 25, 2016June 1, 2016June 8, 2016June 15, 2016June 22, 2016July 6, 2016July 13, 2016July 20, 2016July 27, 2016Aug. 3, 2016Aug. 10, 2016Aug. 17, 2016Aug. 24, 2016Aug. 31, 2016Sept. 7, 2016Sept. 14, 2016Sept. 21, 2016

In prison on 21a-279 class offenses, controlling

Sentenced Pre-trial Total

DUI Home Confinement

Since its inception in March 2011, 1,441 offenders have been released through the DUI home confinement program.

On any given day, approximately 100 people are supervised in the community instead of in prison.

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DUI Home confinement caseloads

Recidivism rates v. recidivism events, 2011 & 2014

4.4%

8.2%

11.8%15.0%

18.0%20.6%

23.1%25.2%

27.1%28.8%

30.6%32.4%

4.1%

7.8%

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14.9%17.7%

20.7%23.2%

25.5%27.8%

29.6%31.4%

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Cum

. per

cent

of r

etur

nees

Months since discharge or release

Recidivsm, return-to-prison, 2011 and 2014 cohorts

2014 cohort, cum %2011 cohort, cum %

2011 2014 Change,%Offenders in cohort 12,579 10,328 -17.9%Recidivators w/in 1-year 4,138 3,348 -19.1%1-year recidivism rate 32.9% 32.4% -1.5%

Recidivism - 1-year return to prison, 2011 v. 2014

Recidivism rates v. recidivism events, 2011 & 2014

2011 2014 Change,%Offenders in cohort 12,579 10,328 -17.9%Recidivators w/in 1-year 4,138 3,348 -19.1%1-year recidivism rate 32.9% 32.4% -1.5%

Recidivism - 1-year return to prison, 2011 v. 2014

514 469 456 439

352

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315 288

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224

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451 398 370 331 310 268

257 222 197 174

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20112014

The DOC Community Release Unit (CRU)

• In operation since March 2015• Unified decision-making across facilities

• All potential, non-parole, discretionary offender releases are scrutinized using the same standards

• Data-driven accountability• Improved efficiencies up the supply-chain• Better ability to assess gaps in programming and

performance• Solid bench-marking

• Shortened wait times to release for release-eligible offenders • 800 to 900 cases reviewed per month• Release grant rates of approximately 50%

The DOC Community Release Unit (CRU)

1,600

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Comm

unity supervision, discretionarySe

nten

ced

popu

latio

n

SentencedDiscretionary

CRU unit created

Although the BOPP has made strong progress in increasing the number of parole hearings, in its reconsideration of transfer parole and its review of technical violation procedures, OPM believes that the creation of CRU was the primary factor that has helped to bend the trend line for community supervision caseloads.

Community Release Unit (CRU)

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Indexing data allows us to track the performance of different variables relative to themselves. Indexing also allows us to evaluate the comparative performance of different variables from the same starting point.

The total DOC population, indexed


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The facility population, indexed

Here we compare the performance of the total DOC population against the facility population. Note the increase in sentenced offenders post-Cheshire.


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Supervised population, indexed

Finally we attach the indexed trend line for offenders under community supervision. Note how volatile community supervision performance has been since 2007 and the reforms of 2008.


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Post Cheshire collapse of community supervision


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The implementation of RREC drives down both the facility and community populations.


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A shift to structured decision-making leads to a sustained decrease in the community population.


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The system reverses a years long trend driving more offenders to the community by increasing efficiencies in the release process

Prepared by:

Ivan Kuzyk, Kyle Baudoin, Kendall BobulaCT OPM, Criminal justice Policy and Planning Div.

Research Unit

connecticut’s declining prison population

Documents