connecting air pollution, climate change, and health j. jason west dept. of environmental sciences...
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Connecting Air Pollution, Climate Change, and Health
J. Jason WestDept. of Environmental Sciences and
EngineeringUniversity of North Carolina
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Smog Bothers Pedestrians, Los Angeles (1950s)
Hollywood Citizens News Collection, Los Angeles Public Library
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A global picture
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How Many People Die From Ambient Air Pollution?Ozone-related mortality PM2.5-related mortality(*)
470,000 (95% CI: 140,000 - 900,000) 2.1 million (95% CI: 1.3 - 3.0 million)
(*) PM2.5 calculated as a sum of species (dark blue) PM2.5 as reported by 4 models (dark green) Light-colored bars - low-concentration threshold (5.8 µg m-3) Silva et al. (2013)
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Global Burden: Ozone-related mortality
Respiratory mortality , deaths yr-1 (1000 km2)-1,
multi-model mean in each grid cell , 14 models
Global and regional mortality per year
Regions Total deaths
Deaths per
million people
(*)North America 34,400 121Europe 32,800 96Former Soviet Union
10,600 66
Middle East 16,200 68
India118,00
0212
East Asia203,00
0230
Southeast Asia 33,300 119South America 6,970 38Africa 17,300 73Australia 469 29
Global472,0
00149(*) Exposed population (age 30
and older)
Silva et al. (2013)
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Global Burden: PM2.5-related mortality
CPD+LC mortality , deaths yr-1 (1000 km2)-1,
multi-model mean in each grid cell , 6 models
Global and regional mortality per year
Regions Total deaths
Deaths per
million people
(*)North America
43,000 152
Europe 154,000 448Former Soviet Union
128,000 793
Middle East 88,700 371India 397,000 715
East Asia1,049,00
01,19
1Southeast Asia
158,000 564
South America
16,800 92
Africa 77,500 327Australia 1,250 78
Global2,110,0
00665
1
(*) Exposed population (age 30 and older)
Silva et al. (2013)
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Global burden of disease of outdoor air pollution
Lim et al., 2012
3.2 million deaths per year(95% CI:2.8 – 3.6 million)
WHO GBD 2010
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Connections Between Air Pollution and Climate Change
1) Several air pollutants affect climate- Ozone (O3) is a greenhouse gas (GHG)- Aerosols scatter and absorb sunlight, and
affect clouds.
2) Changes in climate may affect air quality (of O3, PM, or other pollutants).
3) Sources of air pollutants and GHGs are shared – fossil fuel combustion.
4) Climate change may influence demands for energy, and therefore emissions.
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Connections Between Air Pollution and Climate Change
Sources & Policies
Air pollutants
GHGs
Emissions Problems
Air pollution
ClimateChange
123
Big Question: How can we plan to address air pollution and climate change in a coordinated way?
4
Impacts
HumanHealth
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IPCC, 2007
Radiative Forcing 1750-2005
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Short-lived and Long-lived GHGs
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OHHO2
NO NO2
hO3
NMVOCs, CO
Ozone Precursors Affect Both Ozone Air Quality and Climate Forcing
Urban Global
OHHO2
NO NO2
hO3
NMVOCs, CO, CH4
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Ozone Precursors – Effects on Climate
Global Warming Potential (GWPH ): RF integrated to time horizon, H, following 1-year pulse emission: ∫H RFNOx /emissions / ∫H RFCO2/emissions
Patterns of GWP100 similar to normalized net RFs
-20% NOx-20% NMVOC -20% CO
[Fry et al., JGR, 2012]
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Using methods from Fry et al. [2012] and Collins et al. [2013]
CO as Kyoto’s Forgotten Gas
20-yr GWP
100-yrGWP
[Fry et al., ACP, 2013]
4.07 [3.71 to 4.37]All regional GWP20 within 8.8% of Global GWP20
1.34 [1.26 to 1.44]All regional GWP100 within 7.5% of Global GWP100
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OHHO2
NO NO2
hO3
NMVOCs, CO
Ozone Precursors Affect Both Ozone Air Quality and Climate Forcing
Urban Global
OHHO2
NO NO2
hO3
NMVOCs, CO, CH4
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Simulate a 20% Reduction of Global Methane
2000 A2 2030 ∆O3
24-hr. 29.1 33.6 -0.82
8-hr. daily max. 31.8 37.1 -0.87
8-hr. population-weighted
49.4 61.7 -1.16
Global annual average ozone (ppb)
Change in surface 8-hr. ozone from a 65 Mton CH4 yr-1 reduction in methane emissions, at steady state (81% achieved by 2030 if implemented in 2010).
A2 Anthrop. emissions 2000-2030: CH4 +48%, NOX +70%
Jun-Jul-Aug
Annual Average
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2030 Avoided Premature Deaths20% Global Methane Emissions
Reduction
Total 2030 avoided deaths: 30,200
West et al. (2006) PNAS
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Comparing Monetized Health Benefits
with Control Costs ~10% of anthropogenic methane emissions can be reduced at a cost-savings.
Marginal cost of reducing 65 Mton CH4 yr-1 (20%) is ~$100 per ton CH4 (total cost is negative, IEA (2003)).
Marginal cost-effectiveness is $420,000 per avoided death for the 20% reduction.
Benefit is ~$240 per ton methane reduced (~$12 per ton CO2 equivalent) when deaths are valued at $1 million each.
Health benefits can exceed the costs of the 20% methane reduction.
Methane mitigation can be a cost-effective tool for global and decadal ozone management. West et al. (2006) PNAS
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Shindell et al., Science, 2012
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Co-benefits - Background
Reducing GHG emissions also reduces co-emitted air pollutants
-Air quality and health co-benefits shown to be substantial compared to GHG abatement costs.
“$2-175 / ton CO2 … all studies agree that monetized health benefits make up a substantial fraction of mitigation costs.” IPCC AR4
“$2-196 / ton CO2, and the highest co-benefits found in developing countries. These values, although of a similar order of magnitude to abatement cost estimates, are only rarely included in integrated assessments of climate policy.” Nemet et al. (2010)
-Most studies have focused locally or regionally.-Tend not to analyze future scenarios.-None has been global, using an atmospheric model.
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Co-benefits of GHG Mitigation for Air Quality
Sources & Policies
Air pollutants
GHGs
Air pollution
ClimateChange
Objective: Analyze global co-benefits for air quality and human health via both mechanisms, in scenarios to 2100.
1) Immediate and Local
2) Long-Term and Global
HumanHealth
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Results – PM2.5 Concentration
28
30
32
34
36
38
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Glo
bal
PM
2.5
(μg
m-3
)
Year
REFRCP4.5eREFm45e45m85
Global population-weighted, annual average PM2.5
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Results – PM2.5 Concentration
2050
2100
Annual average PM2.5
Total changeRCP4.5 - REF
MeteorologyeREFm45 - REF
EmissionsRCP4.5 – eREFm45
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Results – Ozone Concentration
Global population-weighted, max. 6 month average of 1 hr. daily max ozone
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Glo
bal
O3
(pp
b)
Year
REFRCP4.5eREFm45e45m85
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Results – Ozone Concentration
2050
2100
Max. 6 month average of 1 hr. daily max ozone
Total co-benefit #2 Meteorology #1 Emissions
MeteorologyeREFm45 - REF
Total changeRCP4.5 - REF
EmissionsRCP4.5 - eREFm45
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Results – Global Premature Mortality
PM2.5 co-benefits (CPD + lung cancer mortality) 2030: 0.4±0.2 2050: 1.1±0.5 2100: 1.5±0.6
Ozone co-benefits (respiratory mortality) 2030: 0.09±0.06 2050: 0.2±0.1 2100: 0.7±0.05
-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Mo
rtal
ity
(Mill
ion
s yr
-1)
Year
O3 REFO3 RCP4.5PM2.5 REFPM2.5 RCP4.5
Global Projection of global population and baseline mortality rates from International Futures.
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Results – Global Premature Mortality
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Results – Valuation of Avoided Mortality
Red: High valuation (2030 global mean $3.6 million)Blue: Low valuation (2030 global mean $1.2 million)Green: Median and range of global C price (13 models)
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Monetized Co-benefits
• Global average: $50-380 / ton CO2
• US and Western Europe: $30-600 / ton CO2
• China: $70-840 / ton CO2
• India: -$20-400 / ton CO2
• Higher than previous estimates: $2-196 / ton CO2
- Use future scenarios where population, susceptibility to air pollution, and economies grow.
- Account for chronic mortality influences of ozone as well as PM2.5.
- Account for global transport, and long-term influences via methane.
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Major uncertainties
• Only adults >30 years accounted for. (low bias)
• Co-benefits of GHG mitigation would be greater had the reference scenario not assumed decreased air pollution.
• RCP emissions do not include primary inorganics (fly ash). (low bias for PM2.5)
• Coarse grid resolution for air pollution exposure. (low bias for PM2.5)
• Applying concentration-response functions from the present-day US, globally and into the future.
Alternative approach: value as avoided air pollution control costs.
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Co-benefits: conclusions
• Global abatement of GHG emissions brings substantial air quality and human health co-benefits.
• Global GHG mitigation (RCP4.5 relative to REF) causes 0.5±0.2 million avoided deaths in 2030, 1.3±0.5 in 2050, and 2.2±0.8 in 2100
• Global average monetized co-benefits are $50-380 / ton CO2
– Greater than previous estimates
– Greater than abatement costs in 2030 and 2050.
• The direct co-benefits from air pollutant emission reductions exceed those via slowing climate change.