FIDIC GAMA African ConferenceRyan Lewis, PrEng

10 May 2017

Connecting Communities through Port and Rail Planning

CONNECTING COMMUNITIES THROUGH PORTS AND RAIL

Outline

Transnet SOC Limited

Integration and Connecting Africa

Long term planning at Transnet

o Freight forecasting

o Rail planning

o Port planning

Transnet’s role beyond South Africa

Connecting communities

TRANSNET SOC LIMITED – FIVE OPERATING DIVISIONS

• 16 Cargo Terminals operating across 7 South African ports

• 8 Commercial ports along       2 798 km of coastline

• 20 500 km of railway track

• +220 million tons of freight

• General freight & 2 heavy haul export lines

• (Transnet Engineering)

• Manufacturing & maintenance of rolling stock 

• Research and Development

• AU Centre of Excellence for rolling stock

• 3 000 km of pipelines

• 18 billion litres of petroleum products and gas

• R300 billion of capital investments over 7 years

• CSI in Education, Health, Sport, Arts & Agriculture

Transnet Pipelines

Transnet Freight Rail

Transnet Port 

Terminals

Transnet National Ports 

Authority

PipelinesRailPorts 

2015/16 Financials: Revenue US$4.4bn – EBITA US$1.9bn – Total Assets US$25.4bn – Capex US$2.1bn – Gearing 43.1%

Transnet Advanced 

Manufacturing

CONNECTING AFRICA – PORT AND RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE

Integrated development enables: Connected and efficient logistics

corridors Economically active regional

communities A vibrant, borderless regional economy Encourages regional specialisation Stimulates economic activity and growth Catalyst for Africa’s growth

KEY PARTNERSHIPS TO SUPPORT CONNECTIVITY ON THE CONTINENT

2. Railway Rolling Stock & InfrastructureRenewal

3. Road Partners

4. Terminal and Warehousing facilities

1. Ports to improve Trade

Regional Focus 1

2

3

4

5

5. Construction

66. Advanced Manufacturing

TRANSNET OPERATES AN INTEGRATED LOGISTICS NETWORK

6

7. SaldanhaBulk (export iron 

ore),breakbulk

6. Cape TownContainers, breakbulk

4. NgquraContainers

3. East LondonContainers, breakbulk, agri‐Bulk, automotives

5. Port ElizabethContainers, breakbulk, bulk, automotivesWESTERN CAPE PORTS WESTERN CAPE PORTS

EASTERN CAPE PORTSEASTERN CAPE PORTS

KZN PORTS KZN PORTS

• 20,500 Km rail network

• 226 million tons of freight p.a.

• 4.6 million TEUs p.a. 

• 18 Billion litres of petroleum 

1. Richards BayBulk (export coal, magnetite, chrome), breakbulk

2. DurbanContainers, breakbulk, agri‐bulk, automotives

7

LONG TERM PLANNING AT TRANSNET

Operational Planning:Where: Operating DivisionsWhat: Operational Plans and SchedulesPurpose: Resource allocation & Operational enablementTimescale: Day-, week- , month- , months ahead

Business Planning:Where: Operating Divisions / Business SectorsWhat: Business Plans, Operating Division Strategic PlansPurpose: Resource Planning & Strategic EnablementTimescale: 1 to 7 year rolling

Corporate Strategic Planning:Where: ODs and Corporate CentreWhat: MDS / Corporate Plan Purpose: Strategic Target Setting, Integration & FundingTimescale: 5 - 10 years

Level 3

Long Term Planning:Where: Transnet-wide / Transportation sectorWhat: LTPF (Long Term Planning Framework)Purpose: Long Term Capacity Development FrameworksTimescale: 30 years

Level 2

National Planning & Policy:Where: National GovernmentWhat: New Growth Path, NDP, PICC / SIPsPurpose: Developmental Strategies and PoliciesTimescale: 10 - 50 years

Level 1

Level 5Transnet integrates with five complementary 

planning layers, each having a specific purpose. 

Transnet’s annual Long Term Planning Framework (LTPF) is an important link in all national and strategic planning in South Africa and Internationally. 

Level 4

The LTPF is compiled and updated annually and an Executive Summary is published for internal and external distribution.

www.transnet.net/BusinessWithUs/Pages/LTPF.aspx

30 YEAR FREIGHT DEMAND – HOW IT IS DEVELOPED

INPUTS

ENERGY DEMAND MODEL

Transnet Energy Demand for 30 years

ROLLING STOCK MODEL

Fleet requirements for 30 years

FREIGHT DEMAND MODEL (FDM)Production and consumption of commodities & growth forecasts for 30 years (SA and SADC)

TRANSPORTATION MODEL (TTM)

Gravity Flow Model to route demand onto the network: ports, pipelines, surface, etc.

LIQUID FUELS & GAS MODEL (LFGM)

Supply and Demand Flows for 30 years

MACRO-ECONOMIC MODELLING & FORECASTING

GDP growth rates, sector analysis, population growth, investment, etc.

MARKET INTELLIGENCE & RESEARCH

Mining sector

MARKET SHARE MODEL (MSM)Determines RAM (rail addressable

market) and set road to rail targets

CONTAINER DEMAND FORECAST MODEL (CDFM)Converting demand to 9 container

typologies

TRANSNETFREIGHT DEMAND

Demand Book

TRACK CAPACITY

MODEL LTPF 30 years

PROCESSING& ANALSYSIS

OUTPUTS

Forecast Input Report

FREIGHT FLOWS OVER 30 YEARS

2016 2047

• Total freight on the South African surface is expected to increase by 159%. • Flows through the port system is expected in increase by 133%• Cross‐border traffic by 128%

The resultant freight flows on the surface will densify significantly as illustrated below:

AFRICA FREIGHT FORECAST

African Freight Demand Model generates surface flows for 17 sub‐Saharan countries

Provides port forecasts for 48 ports for bulk volumes and containers

66 commodities are included in the demand model

57 districts are modelled

AFRICA FREIGHT FORECAST

2017

2044

2047

RAIL CAPACITY CREATION PRINCIPLES

• New track gauge standards• Axle loading upgrades• Speed standards• New vehicle gauge standards

• Additional passing loops• Track realignment• Extension of crossing loops• Electrification

• Advanced braking systems• In-cab signalling• Distributed power• New locomotive designs

• Longer trains• Better planning• Maintenance• Reliability

Impact

Capacity solution space

Bottom‐up solutions are the most affordable and provide the best fit to existing systemsConsider the operational improvements prior to implementation of major and costly new infrastructure solutions

Quantum infrastructure

Quick changeLow cost

Massive investmentExtensive disruption or incompatibility

New wave of competitiveness

Expensive investmentsModerate disruption

Long lead timesStep‐up capacity

Incremental capacity Moderate and direct cost

Incrementalinfrastructure

Equipment and technology

Operational discipline and redesign

1

2

3

4

PORT PLANNING PRINCIPLES

Long Term Planning 

Framework

Capacity Planning

Demand

Integration

Long Term PlanningIntegrate and align port and rail capacity 

planning

Maintain flexibility to respond to changing technological and economic conditions

Respond to environmental opportunities andconstraints

Capacity PlanningImprove infrastructural and operational 

efficiencyMaximize port zone functions

Develop back‐of‐port logistics areas to increase port capacity

IntegrationDevelop regional integration

Port system‐wide capital investmentAlign with planning initiatives of key 

stakeholders

TRANSNET’S MANDATE BEYOND SOUTH AFRICA

1

Grow Transnet footprint in the region

Pursue options to invest in port, rail and pipeline operating concessions

Transnet International Holdings established

Focus on port and rail alliances, coastal shipping market growth and linkages with rail corridors

Focus on Maputo, North‐South and East‐West Corridors

Set up “Joint Operating Centres” and inter‐rail agreements to improve corridor efficiency

Transnet International Strategy

Transnet leading logistics service 

provider in Africa and the Middle East

2

3

4 Position Transnet Advanced Manufacturing (Transnet Engineering) as preferred OEM for Africa

Launch the “Trans‐Africa” locomotive

CONNECTING COMMUNITIES – PORT AND RAIL 30 YEAR EXPANSION

2017  2047

CONNECTING COMMUNITIES THROUGH PORT AND RAIL

Economic growth 

Job creation opportunities

Access to technology 

Business development

Access to health/social services

Access to education and 

training

Opportunities for communities 

to travel within Africa and 

beyond 

CONCLUSION – COOPERATION AND COLLABORATION 

Cooperation An efficient, connected regional rail 

network Seamless border processes Standardised operating processes Standardised training

Collaboration Major Project Planning & Implementation  Aligned infrastructure investment and 

development priorities Value Chain focus Partnerships with road 

required to deliver superior door to door logistics

Technology & Systems for Road‐Rail integration and Intermodalism

The Possibilities are AliveAfrica needs to work 

together to realise them

Thank You

Ryan LewisPlanning SpecialistFramework and Capacity PlanningTransnet Group CapitalRyan.Lewis@transnet.net+27 84 751 7634

Imran KarimExecutive ManagerFramework and Capacity PlanningTransnet Group CapitalImran.Karim@transnet.net+27 83 265 7869