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Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Connectivity and Super Supply Chains

AIAA Enterprise Chapter of Los AngelesAIAA Western Office

Ken DozierExecutive Director, WESRAC

10/17/2006


The Western Research Application Center

http://ttc.usc.edu/learningcenter/presentations.asp


WIRED Project Department of Labor Workforce Innovation in Regional Economic Development initiative

"Innovation, education and entrepreneurship: those are the keys that will open the door to challenging and rewarding jobs."Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, February 2, 2006

• Interface with industry/economic development academia to support/develop education/training resources

• Create sustainable innovation economic development model

• Identify candidate companies for projects

WESRAC is a funded-partner of WIRED


Jack Welch, Former Chairmen General Electric

The Future

“When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight”

Source: John F. Welch, Jr. Chairman / CEO General Electric’s 2000 Annual Report


Source: Lon Hatamiya, Secretary - California Trade and Commerce Agency, South Bay Economic Development Partnership, “South Bay of Los Angeles County Workforce Perspective", October 2001

Velocity

“ According to Silicon ValleyCEO’s, 60 % of the high-tech

items they manufacture today did not exist 10 months ago”


Truth Knowledge Belief

Universal

No Debate

Effect

Social

Converge on debate

Cause

Personal

Diverge on debate

Cause

Source: “Ten Philosophical Mistakes”, Mortimer J. Adler 1985

What is Knowledge ?


Info-Tech

Nano-Tech

Bio-Tech

Technologies Change Fast

Source: SRI International 2002


“where ... The ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computer in the the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons” - Popular Mechanics, 1949

“I predict the internet... Will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse ” - Bob Metcalfe, 3COM founder and inventor, 1995

“This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us”

- Western Union, Internal memo, 1876

“The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it” - New York Times, 1949

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home”- Ken Olson, president and founder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

Anchor and Adjust

Source: “The Future is Ours” Communication of the ACM, March 2001


Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International 2005

3. Singapore4. Iceland5. Canada6. Finland7. Denmark8. Switzerland9. Australia10.Luxembourg

Global Competition

1. USA

2. Hong Kong


Demassification

Denationalization

Despacialization

Disintermediation

Disaggregation

Decentralization

Source: The Social Life of information, Brown & Duguild March 2000

6-D Dimensions of Global Commerce


Source: Corporate Information Systems, Lynda Applegate, 1999

Make & Sell vs. Sense & Respond


An increasing attribute of our knowledge age

Exponential Economy

Copyright SRI International 2002


0 2

9 28 Copyright SRI International 2002

Possibility for creating N(2(N-1)-1) value

Computing Synergy


Media Bandwidth

DSL/ Cable

IEEE 1394 / Firewire

Gigabit Ethernet

LASER / Fast Ethernet

10BaseT/CAT 5 EthernetMicrowave

G2 Wireless

G3 / Wireless LAN

Async. Trans. Mode (ATM)

G1 Wireless

10Gig Ethernet

Voic

e Inte

rnet

Acc

ess

Gam

ing

File

sha

ring

Dig

ital M

usic

NTS

C V

ideo

VHS

Vide

o MPE

G V

ideo

DV

Vide

oH

DTV

Vid

eo

10^11

10^10

10^9

10^8

10^7

10^6

10^5

10^4

Ban

dwid

th R

equi

red

Bits

/sec

(bps

)120 Gbps 12X QDR InfiniBand10^12


High Performance Grid Computing


What’s up?

• The United States initially was the world leader in broadband deployment.

• Now it has plunged to 19th place. • While the United States is still first in

absolute number of broadband lines, its lead will soon be overtaken by China.

Source: http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0601, January 2006


How Important is Broadband?

• The Brookings Institution estimated that America’s broadband decline could lead to a potential loss of $1 trillion in economic productivity over the next decade, as well as more than 1.2 million jobs that could be created by better broadband.

Source: The Brookings Institute 2004


Europe is getting it

• City of Amsterdam announced a project to deploy FTTU throughout the city. http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=86384

• Paris, France, announced the goal of deploying FTTU throughout “all of Paris.”http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=86547

• The City of Vienna, Austria, announced plans for a citywide FTTU network that will provide residents 1 Gbps of symmetrical broadband capacity. http://www.heise.de/english/newsticker/news/68912


How Important is Computing?

Walmart Perspective

• If you can understand your data, you can do predictive analysis.

• It’s an advantage if suppliers can link into Walmart’s systems and perform their own analyses using Walmarts’s complex tables- CTO Walmart (September 2006)

Source: HPC Wire, September 15th , 2006



Pratt & Whitney Perspective

• Building models on the computer is faster and lower-cost, and you can look at any level of detail.

• Digital models are the basis for innovation. • Suppliers also do modeling and simulation to speed

development and reduce costs.• We take a lot of time determining whether suppliers

can use these tools.- Chief engineer for systems analysis & aerodynamics, Pratt & Whitney

(September 2006)Source: HPC Wire, September 15th , 2006


20

Num

ber o

f Use

rsN

umbe

r of A

pplic

atio

ns

1 4 64

NeverEverUser

Mid Range HPC User “Missing Middle”

Entry Level HPCUser Experienced

HPC User“Heroes”

Nodes 1,000

10,000+

NICE:Move Users

Forward

NICE:Move Users

Forward

World Class

Computing

NICE: Fill the

Expertise Gap

NICE: Fill the

Expertise Gap


Competitiveness Transformation Challenge

National Innovation Collaboration Ecosystem(NICE)

Source: USC ISI


Dynamic Systems

Common modes of behavior in dynamic systems

Source: System Dynamics, John Sterman, 2000


Exponential Growth

• How thick do you think a paper folded in-half 42 times would be?

• How thick would it be after 100 folds?


Exponential Growth

The Answers

• 42 folds = 440,000 Km (the distance from the earth to the moon.)

• 100 folds = 850 trillion times the distance from the earth to the sun!


The Beer Game

Steady state at 4 cases per week.


Connectivity


The Beer Game - Not Sharing

The system after only a single change from 4 to 8 case.


The Beer Game - Sharing

Knowledge sharing, reduces the damage of a simple change in the system.


Findings

• Disruptions move up and down the supply chain. Creates a state of co-dependency.

• Knowledge sharing between members of the supply chain tend to suppress the damage created by unwanted oscillations.

• Grid computing can create a B2B trust environment that creates super supply chains.


http://wesrac.usc.eduFor more information, please write:

Contact Information

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