consequences for biodiversity of large scale biomass production mnp rob alkemade michel bakkenes ben...

Consequences for biodiversity of large scale biomass production

MNPRob AlkemadeMichel BakkenesBen ten Brink (project leader)Bas EickhoutMireille de HeerTom KramTon MandersMark van OorschotFleur SmoutDetlef van VuurenHenk Westhoek

UNEP-WCMC:

Lera Miles

Igor Lysenko

Lucy Fish

UNEP-GRID Arendal:

Christian Nellemann

LEI-WUR

Hans van Meijl

Andrzej Tabeau

Rob Alkemade June 13th 2006 2

Overview

• Biodiversity indicators• Methodology• Baseline scenario• Climate mitigation (biomass production

included)• conclusions


biodiversity

time

Options?

Global Biodiversity Outlook

baseline

2000


Options

1. WTO liberalisation agricultural marked,

2. WTO + Poverty alleviation in Africa

3. Sustainable meat production4. Climate mitigation (max + 2oC; 450 ppm)

5. Sustainable forest (wood plantations)

6. Protected areas (20% per biome)


Biodiversity

• Convention of Biodiversity (CBD)– Biodiversity encompasses the variety of life at the level of

ecosystems, species and genes

• Indicators (a.o.)– Area of specific biomes, ecosystems and habitats– The abundance and distribution of selections of species– Coverage of protected areas– Status of threatened species: Red list index


Biodiversity loss? homogenisation

“Fishing down the foodweb (Pauly, 2001)”


original species of ecosystem

Speciesabundance

Range inintact ecosystem

a b c d e f x y zg h


Speciesabundance




Speciesabundance




Speciesabundance




Speciesabundance




Speciesabundance




Speciesabundance




Speciesabundance




Speciesabundance




Speciesabundance




Speciesabundance




Speciesabundance



Which indicator?

Time

Mean Species Abundance (MSA)

MSA


Biodiversitydecrease

100%

0%

50%

Map color


Changes in:

• Population• Economicgrowth• Technology • lifestyle (meat cons)

Indirect drivers• Food demand• Energy demand• Energy mix• Wood demand• Food trade

pressures

•Land use change • Climate change• N-deposition• Forestry• Infrastructure• fragmentation

Effects

Biodiversity

Methodolgy

GTAP – TIMER – IMAGE ---- > GLOBIO 3 model


0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2pr

imar

yfo

rest

sele

ctiv

elo

ggin

g

seco

ndar

yfo

rest

agro

fore

stry

plan

tatio

ns

crop

land

past

ure

mea

n sp

ecie

s ab

unda

nce

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

primary pasture cropland

mea

n sp

ecie

s ab

unda

nce

Relationships pressure – mean species abundance

Land use change

climate

forests grasslands

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0

Temperature change (degrees)

mea

n a

rea

red

uct

ion

grasslands

forests

tundraBiofuels:Crops (maize/sugarcane): 0.1Woody biofuels: 0.2


MSA = LUC * C * N * I * F

MSA = Biodiversity of a regionLUC = biodiversity value for land use typeC = biodiversity loss due to climate changeN = biodiversity loss due to Nitrogen pollutionI = biodiversity loss due to InfrastructureF = biodviversity loss due to Fragmentation

Overall Mean species abundance


Baseline scenario

Characteristics (2050): • Current policies

• Kyoto

• 1.5 x global population

• 2.5 x global energy use

• 3 x income per person

• growth of agricultural productivity

• 5 % decrease of agricultural land rel to 2000, shift towards crops

• Loss of biodiversity (MSA) of 7-8 % (from 70% MSA in 2000 to 63%

in 2050)

Sources: OECD, IEA, FAO


Biodiversity loss in the future

Fred Langeweg, Greenweek Brussels 30-5-06


Global loss: 70% -> 63%

63%


Baseline and biofuel option comparison (2050)

Baseline • Ca. 1.80C T increase

• Ca.630 ppm CO2 equi.

• Emission 19 Pg C/yr

(in 2020: 14 Pg C/yr)

• Energy use: 850 Ej

730 EJ fossil

25 EJ modern biofuels

95 EJ other

• 0.2 milj. Km2

Biofuels• Ca. 1.50C T increase

• Ca. 500 ppm CO2 equi.

• Emission 6 Pg C/yr

(in 2020: 12 Pg C/yr)

• Energy use: 650 EJ

380 EJ fossil

150 EJ modern biofuels

120 EJ other

• 6 milj. Km2


Allocation of biofuel production

• Extra area ca. 500 miljoen ha on low productive land:– Savannah– Tundra– Grassland systems

• Energy crops for 100 miljoen ha on abandoned agricultural land

• No extra conversion of forests• No competition with food crops


+ 10% Agricultural area climate


Probable location of biofuel crops


Effects of biomass production


On the longer term

0,40,45

0,50,55

0,60,65

0,7

1950 2000 2050 2100 2150

baseline

biofuels

Using current model

0,40,45

0,50,55

0,60,65

0,7

1950 2000 2050 2100 2150

baseline

biofuels

Climate effect >Land use effect <


Conclusions• Biomass production does help mitigating climate change, but land is needed to produce it, inevitably at the

cost of natural areas

• Mid – term (2050): bio-fuel production has a negative impact on biodiversity on global scale

• Long term (after 2100): A positive effect may be possible


Thank you


biodiversity

time

Options?

Question:

baseline

2000


Which biomes & regions?


Which biodiversity loss?

Decrease in abundance of many original species increase in abundance of a few, often man-favoured speciesas a result of human interventions

homogenisation


Design of model framework for GLOBIO 3

GLC 2000 IMAGE Infrastructure

Land use

Nitrogen Climateroads

Effect ofLand use

Effect ofnitrogen

Effect of climate

Effect ofpatch size

Effect ofInfrastructure

MSAGLOBIO3


Option 5: Sustainable forestry plantations produce 2-10 x semi-natural forest

wood plantations meet demand by 2050

• 6.5% increase “agricultural” area

Yearly cut forest area

0

100000

200000

300000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

year

km2/

yr

Option: Yearly Cut Plantation Area Option: Yearly Cut Managed/Semi-natural Forest

Option: Total Yearly Cut Area Baseline: Yearly Cut Area

Logged area baseline

Logged area option

Logged plantationLogged forest


Conclusions• Go for a smart combination of options • Initial losses unavoidable in structural solutions• You have to lose a fly to catch a fish

• Achieving the 2010-target a good signal?

Biodiversity

Structural solutions

Baseline scenario

2000 2050 > 2100

Turning point ?

Biofuel cropsPlantationsPoverty alleviation


Slimme maatregel mix?: (niet doorgerekend)

• Combinatie van meat, forestry & protected areas !

• Klimaat mitigatie zonder biofuels?

• Geleide liberalisatie: vul yield-gap Zuid (straf op conversie)

• Vrijkomende landbouwgrond: plantage, natuurherstel

•


Biodiversity gains & losses Sub-Saharan Arica


baseline

climate

liberalization

poverty reduction

sust. meat prod.

forestry

Protected areas

Agricultural land - 2050

Extensive grassland - 2050

Polar - 2050

Tundra - 2050

Boreal Forest - 2050

Temp grassland and steppe - 2050

Temperate Coniferous Forest - 2050

Temperate broadleaf and mixed Forest - 2050

Mediterranean forest, woodland and shrub - 2050

Desert - 2050

Tropical grassland and savannah - 2050

Tropical dry Forest - 2050

Tropical rain Forest - 2050

GBO_Region (All)

Sum of Inverse

scen

GBO_Biome

year

Overzicht: areaal effect per optie in 2050 per biome


Stylized relationship between human development (HDI) and productive ecological capital (NCI)

100%

0

HDI

NCI

consequences for biodiversity of large scale biomass production mnp rob alkemade michel bakkenes ben...

Documents

biodiversity value

rate of biodiversity

crops loss of biodiversity

biome slide

biodiversity time options

fao slide

model slide

mean species abundance