consolidated automobile industry report in view of market forces - jul-nov '08

CONTENTS

A - Trend Analysis – USD, JPY & Petrol

B - Highlights – Nov ‘08

C- PAMA ANALYSIS

An overview of the auto sector• Total auto sector sales

Overview of Hyundai’s performance• Santro Vs Cultus & Alto• Shehzore vs. Hilux & Master• Santro & Shehzore sales

Market share of DFML in Medium Passenger car & LCV segment• Market share of DFML in Medium Passenger car & LCV segment

Hyundai as compared to other brands

Auto sector analysisP C• Passenger Cars

• Large passenger cars• Small passenger cars• Trucks• Buses

Motorcycles• Motorcycles• Tractors

Trend Analysis of PKR – USDNov ‘08

90.00

Increase Nov’08 = PKR (2.2)% Increase Nov’ 08 = (2.7%)

66.94 68.45

71.5276.76

78.20

81.2079.00

70.00

80.00

61.28 62.33 62.82 62.72 63.6566.94

40.00

50.00

60.00

20.00

30.00

0.00

10.00

Dec '07 Jan '08 Feb '08 Mar '08 Apr '08 May '08 Jun '08 Jul '08 Aug '08 Sep '08 Oct '08 Nov '08

USD - PKR

Trend Analysis of PKR – JPYNov ‘08

0.83000.9000

Increase Nov ’08 = PKR (0.005)% Increase Nov ’08 = (0.59%)

0.58680.6227

0.6341

0.6878

0.7054

0.73420.8350

0.8300

0.7000

0.8000

0.5453

0.57890.6204 0.6470

0.4000

0.5000

0.6000

0.1000

0.2000

0.3000

0.0000


YEN - PKR

Comparison B/W Diesel, Petrol & CNG PricesNov ‘08

86.786.7

90.00

100.00

64 64

68.14

61 6065.8

68.8

75.7

86.7

76.6

66.670.00

80.00

38.73 38.73 38.73

32 5736.07 36.07 41.59

44.59 49.05

64.64 61.60

47.2544.5 44.5 44.5

53.7 53.7 53.753.7

62.8

40.00

50.00

60.00

32.57

24 24

35 35

37 37 37 38.2

20.00

30.00

0.00

10.00


Price Diesel (PKR/ Ltr) Price CNG (PKR/ Kg) Price Petrol

Highlights During Nov ‘08

Automakers reluctant to cut prices

Rs 500m subsidy for new transport operators

1,000 CNG buses in four months

Vendors, carmakers to seek govt. rescue

Import value of Chinese bike parts fixed

Honda Atlas reports loss

5th CNG exhibition to begin from Dec 2

G dd li it t t b k lGermany adds limits to car tax break plans

Committee on blending of Ethanol for motor vehicle, bio‐fuel technology formed

Hinopak to export buses from PakistanHinopak to export buses from Pakistan

Imported cars ‐ Hearing of petition against luxury tax adjourned

T t l S l 81 078

Auto Sector Sales Including Trucks & Buses

80,000

90,000 Total Sales = 55,398

Total Sales = 80,832Growth = 11%


Total Sales = 50,627Growth = (37%)


61%2 %

50,000

60,000

70,000

2%

39% 15%3%

32%

61%30%39% 21%

20 000

30,000

40,000

52% 57%34%

9%

45% 35%2%

58%

3% 46%

July - Nov '04 July - Nov '05 July - Nov '06 July - Nov '07 July - Nov '08-

10,000

20,000 28% 10%

3% 46%

4x4 Jeeps 685 954 1,151 448 581

Trucks & Buses 1,388 1,931 2,221 2,165 1,472

Pickups 3,483 5,043 3,390 3,465 1,463

Econo Cab 3,795 5,782 9,074 12,185 13,253

Passenger Cars 46,047 58,859 64,996 62,815 33,858

4x4 Jeeps Trucks & Buses Pickups Econo Cab Passenger Cars

Color coded percentages are the YOY growth of the different segments

Auto Sector Sales Without Trucks & Buses

80 000

90,000 Total Sales = 70,638Growth = 31%

Total Sales =78,611Growth = 11% Total Sales =78,913

Growth = 0%

T l S l 49 155

60,000

70,000

80,000 Total Sales 54,010

Total Sales = 49,155Growth = (38%)

33% 2% 58%

30%61%21%

39%

30,000

40,000

50,000 45%33% 2% 58%

46%

52% 57% 34% 9%

J l N '04 J l N '05 J l N '06 J l N '07 J l N '08-

10,000

20,000 28% 10% 3% 46%

July - Nov '04 July - Nov '05 July - Nov '06 July - Nov '07 July - Nov '08

4x4 Jeeps 685 954 1,151 448 581

Pickups 3,483 5,043 3,390 3,465 1,463

Econo Cab 3,795 5,782 9,074 12,185 13,253

Passenger Cars 46,047 58,859 64,996 62,815 33,858

4x4 Jeeps Pickups Econo Cab Passenger Cars

Color coded percentages are the YOY growth of the different segments

Sales – 1000ccSantro Vs. Cultus & Alto

Total Sales = 20,526Overall growth = 29%

Cultus growth rate = 37%Alto growth rate = 52%

Santro growth rate =(43%)Total Sales = 19,972

Overall growth = (3%)

1,538 1,304 20,000

25,000 Total Sales = 15,959

Overall growth = 26%Cultus growth rate = 44%

Alto growth rate = 31%Santro growth rate = (11%)

Santro growth rate =(43%) Overall growth (3%)Cultus growth rate = 5%Alto growth rate = (9%)

Santro growth rate = (15%)

Total Sales = 9,316

5,781

8,779 7,991

3,037

2,703 15,000

Total Sales = 12,632 Overall growth = (53%)Cultus growth rate = (49%)

Alto growth rate = (54%)Santro growth rate = (91%)

5,181 7,475

10,209 10,677

5,488

4,414

5,781

3,712

116

5,000

10,000

5, 88

-


H d i S t S ki Alt S ki C ltHyundai Santro Suzuki Alto Suzuki Cultus

Market Share – 1000cc

59% 40% 1%July - Nov '08

53% 40% 7%July - Nov '07

50% 43% 7%July - Nov '06

41%

47%

35%

36%

24%

17%

J l N '04

July - Nov '05

41% 35% 24%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

July - Nov '04

Suzuki Cultus Suzuki Alto Hyundai Santro

Sales 1-2.5 Ton Pickup

6,000

Total Sales = 5,043Overall growth = 45%

Toyota Hilux growth = (2%)Shehzore growth = 44%

622

4 000

5,000

Total Sales = 3,483

Total Sales = 3,390Overall growth = (33%)Hilux growth = (97%)

Shehzore growth = (9%)Master growth = (24%)

Total Sales = 3,286Overall growth = (3%)

Hilux growth = (100%)Shehzore growth = 3%Master growth = (31%)

3,161

-

472 325 3,000

4,000

Total Sales = 1,463Overall growth = (55%)

Shehzore growth = (70%)Master growth = (95%)

2,194

2,885 2,961

874

15

1,000

2,000

1,289 1,260

33 -

574 -

,


Master Hyundai Shehzore Toyota Hilux

Market Share 1-2.5 Pickup

39% 60% 1%July - Nov '08

0% 90% 10%July - Nov '07

1% 85% 14%July - Nov '06

25% 63% 12%July - Nov '05

37% 63%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

July - Nov '04

Toyota Hilux Hyundai Shehzore Master

Santro & Shehzore Sales

5,864 6 000

7,000 Growth = 12%

5,231

4,423 4,265

5,000

6,000

Growth = (25%)Growth = (4%)

40%12%

(13%)

(34%)

(20)%

3,000

4,000

(69%)(14%)

(34%)

(92%)

3,037

2,703

1,538

2,194 3,161

2,885 2,961

990 1,000

2,000 Growth = (77%)

1,304 116 874

-


Hyundai Santro Hyundai Shehzore Total Linear (Hyundai Santro) Linear (Hyundai Shehzore)

Combined Market Share of Medium Passenger Cars & LCVs

21% 79%July - Nov '08

29% 71%July - Nov '07

30% 70%July - Nov '06

29% 71%July - Nov '05

29% 71%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

July - Nov '04

Medium Passenger car + LCV Others (Auto Market w/o Medium Passenger cars & LCVs)

Market Share of DFML In Medium Passenger Cars & LCVs

9% 91%July - Nov '08

18% 82%July - Nov '07

18% 82%July - Nov '06

28% 72%July - Nov '05

32% 68%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

July - Nov '04

Santro+ Shehzore Others (Other Medium Passenger cars & LCVs)

Jul-Nov YOY Jul-Nov YOY Jul-Nov YOY Jul-Nov YOY Jul-Nov

Brand Wise Sales – Passenger Cars & LCVs

’04 Growth ’05 Growth ’06 Growth ’07 Growth ’08

Honda 6,886 79% 12,317 (41%) 7,236 (15%) 6,122 (16%) 5,135

Suzuki 23,595 28% 30,167 20% 36,225 (1%) 35,692 (52%) 17,236

Toyota 10,388 12% 11,686 25% 14,658 2% 15,018 (44%) 8,428

Nissan 1 (100%) - - - - - - -

Kia 177 (100%) - - - - - - -

Hyundai 5,231 12% 5,864 (25%) 4,423 (4%) 4,265 (77%) 990

Daihatsu 3,252 0% 3,246 65.5% 5,372 (10%) 4,858 (28%) 3,517

Master (LCV) - - 622 (24%) 472 (31%) 325 (95%) 15

Total 49,530 63,902 68,386 66,280 35,321Total 49,530 63,902 68,386 66,280 35,321

Growth 29% 7% (3%) (47%)

Brand Wise Market Share – Passenger Cars & LCVsJul- Nov ‘08Jul Nov 08

July '08

15%3%10%

24%

49%

Honda Suzuki Toyota Hyundai Daihatsu Master

Auto Segment Wise Market Share With Trucks & Buses

67% 26% 3%3% 1%July - Nov '08

77% 15% 4% 3% 1%July - Nov '07

80% 11% 4% 3% 1%July - Nov '06

81% 8% 7% 3% 1%July - Nov '05

83% 7% 6% 3% 1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

July - Nov '04

Passenger Cars Econo Cab Pickups Trucks & Buses SUVs

Auto Sector Segment Wise Growth Rate (%)

Segment July-Nov '05 July-Nov '06 July-Nov '07 July-Nov '08

Passenger cars 28% 10% (3%) (46%)

Econo Cabs 52% 57% 34% 9%

Pickups 45% (33%) 2% (58%)

Trucks & buses 39% 15% (3%) (32%)

SUVs/4x4 39% 21% (61%) 30%

64,996 62,815

Category Wise Sales of Passenger Cars

46,047

58,859

, ,

60,000

70,000

28%

10%3%

17,215

19,797 20,211

50,000

15%

2%46%

12 632

15,959 20,52619,972

15,221

11,142

33,858

30,000

40,000

26%

29%

3%

13%

15%

45%

18 19425,685 24,673

22,632

12,632

9,316

10 000

20,000

26%

53%

41% 8%4%

18,194

13,400

0

10,000


41%

800cc 1000cc 1300-2000cc

Category Wise Share of Passenger Cars

40% 28% 33%July - Nov '08

36% 32% 32%July - Nov '07

38% 32% 30%July - Nov '06

44% 27% 29%July - Nov '05

40% 27% 33%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

July - Nov '04

1300-2000cc 1000cc 800cc

Large Passenger Cars Product - Wise Sales

-

25,685

30,000 Growth = 41%

Growth = (4%)Growth = (8%)

(100%)

10,426

-

-

7

18,194

24,673

22,632

20,000

25,000

15%

40%

(100%)

(100%)

2,942

-

9,099

14,625

14,839

1

170 7

13,400 15,000

(100%)

15%1%

Growth = (41%)

45%

3,077

6,237

4,857 3 840

2,031 -

-

- 2,812

1,671

411

7,854

5,000

10,000

(21%)

(23%)

(47%)

(75%)

(41%)(22%)103%

3,809 6,080

2,379 2,282 2,194

,3,840 2,941

-


60% (61%)(4%) (4%)

( )

Kia (Classic NGV) Nissan (Sunny) Toyota (Corolla) Suzuki (Liana)

Suzuki (Baleno) Honda (City) Honda (Civic)

Large Passenger Cars Product - Wise Share

16% 22% 3% 59%July - Nov '08

10% 17% 7% 66%July - Nov '07

10% 20% - 11% 59%July - Nov '06

21%

24%

17%

24%

11%

11%

50%

41%

July - Nov '04

July - Nov '05

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Honda (Civic) Honda (City) Suzuki (Baleno)

Suzuki (Liana) Toyota (Corolla) Kia (Classic NGV)

Small Passenger Cars Product - Wise Sales

40,000

45,000

13%15%

2%30,000

35,000

45%

15,221 17,215

19,797 20,211

11 142

20,000

25,000

17%6%

50%3%

0% 10% 28%

11,969 13,969

14,425 15,353

7,625

11,142

10,000

15,000

0%65%

10% 28%

3,252 3,246 5,372 4,858 3,517

-

5,000


Daihatsu Cuore Suzuki Mehran Total sales

Small Passenger Cars Product - Wise Share

32% 68%July - Nov '08

24% 76%July - Nov '07

27% 73%July - Nov '06

19% 81%July - Nov '05

21% 79%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

July - Nov '04

Daihatsu Cuore Suzuki Mehran

4 000

Brand Wise Sales - Trucks

3,500

4,000

2,500

3,000

17%

89%

8%

27%

416 275 -

69 -

1,536

1,803 1,656

1,202 1,500

2,000

27%

(37%)

(34%)

(6%)

38%

374517

374 369

176 11

35 2

-

20

177 166

105

163

-

302

135

-

-811

1,000

54% (22%)38%

(28%) (1%)

(52%)

(94%) (100%)

55%

(51%)

218%

426 505 776

907 708

374

-

500


19%

54%17%

(22%)

Volvo Isuzu Master Dong Feng Nissan Hino

Brand Wise Share - Trucks

59% 15% 2% 14% 11%July - Nov '08

55% 22% 6% 17%July - Nov '07

43% 21% 9% 23% 4%July - Nov '06

33% 34% 2% 12% 20%July - Nov '05

53% 46% 1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

July - Nov '04

Hino Nissan Dong Feng Master Isuzu Volvo

Brand Wise Sales - Buses

577

600

700

Growth = 22%

41

22

28

-

81395 418

509

500

286%

38%(48%)

Growth = (32%)

(100%)(78%)

Growth = 6%

100%

508 12

16

22

23

12-

-

-

-

96

21

38

270300

400

(71%)

Growth = (47%)33%

38%

(53%)

(18%)

260

368404

225

- --38

100

200

( )

(49%)

42% 10% (53%)

(73%)

(44%)

0


Isuzu Master Dong Feng Nissan Hino

Brand Wise Share - Buses

83% 2% 14%July - Nov '08

79% 4% 16%July - Nov '07

88% 4%3% 5%July - Nov '06

`̀

88%

66%

7%

3%

5%

6%1% 24%

July Nov '04

July - Nov '05

88% 7% 5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

July - Nov '04

Hino Nissan Dong Feng Master Isuzu

36%

Brand Wise Sales - Motorcycles28%

173,822

146 027

198,097 207,450

200,000

250,000

5%

(21%)(56%)

16%

(26%)44%

(10%)

17%

2%

(17%)

245%

(20%)

(10%)

(56%)(10%)(2%)

146,027

100,000

150,000 11%

(53%)

(32%)

(23%)(39%)

July - Nov '05 July - Nov '06 July - Nov '07 July - Nov '08

Sazgar Three wheeler 978 1,250

i( i i )

-

50,000 (8%)

28% 19%

Ravi(HKF Engineering) 7,840 7,722

Fateh Hero 12,748 9,449 9,673 8,752

Qingqi 7,200 3,149 10,877 4,830

Triwheeler 820 651 584 523

Sohrab 5,838 2,764 2,284 2,739

S kiSuzuki 6,114 6,760 9,756 7,471

Yamaha 26,282 17,783 20,745 12,604

Honda 114,820 105,471 135,360 161,559

Total Motor cycles 173,822 146,027 198,097 207,450

Sazgar Three wheeler Ravi(HKF Engineering) Fateh HeroQingqi Triwheeler SohrabSuzuki Yamaha Honda

Brand Wise Share - Motorcycles

78% 6% 4%1%

2%4% 4%1%July - Nov '08

68% 10% 5%1%

‐

5% 5% 4%0%

July - Nov '07

72% 12% 5% 2%

‐

2% 6%July - Nov '06

66% 15% 4% 3%

‐

4% 7%July - Nov '05

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Honda Yamaha Suzuki

Sohrab Triwheeler Qingqi

Fateh Hero Ravi(HKF Engineering) Sazgar Three wheeler

25 000

Brand Wise Sales - Tractors

20,000

25,000

Growth =0%

Growth = 29%

Growth = 4%

15,641

15,646

9,075 15,000

15,016 14,978

7,736 6,545 7,725

10,000

17%15%18%

7,280 8,433 7,916

11,174 5,000

16%41%

6%

-

July - Nov '05 July - Nov '06 July - Nov '07 July - Nov '08

Millat (Massey Ferguson) Fiat (New Holland)

Brand Wise Share - Tractors

55% 45%July - Nov '08

51% 49%July - Nov '07

56% 44%July - Nov '06

48% 52%July - Nov '05

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Fiat (New Holland) Millat (Massey Ferguson)

consolidated automobile industry report in view of market forces - jul-nov '08

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