consumer confidence - nielsen...recession levels global consumer confidence returned to a...

C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C ECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLDQUARTER 1, 2014

2014 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 1ST EDITION

2 QUARTER 1 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2

GLOBALLY• Globalconsumerconfidenceincreasedto96pointsonascaleindexed

toamid-pointof100inQ12014,thehighestlevelsince2007

• PerceptionsoflocaljobprospectsimprovedinallregionsexceptLatinAmerica

• Recessionarysentimentimprovedin68percentofmarkets

• Discretionaryspendingintentionsincreasedinallregions

• U.S.consumerconfidenceisatitshighestlevelsince2007

• GermanyandJapanconsumerconfidenceareattheirhighestlevelssince2005

• Sub-SaharanAfricaconsumerconfidenceisincludedforthefirsttime

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REACHES PRE-RECESSION LEVELS

Globalconsumerconfidencereturnedtoapre-recessionlevelwith

anindexscoreof96inthefirstquarter—thehighestscoresince

first-quarter2007,accordingtoconsumerconfidencefindingsfrom

Nielsen,aleadingglobalproviderofinformationandinsightsintowhat

consumerswatchandbuy.

Theglobalindexscorerepresentsatwo-pointincreasefromfourth-

quarter2013andathree-pointincreasefromayearago(Q12013).The

Nielsenconsumerconfidenceindexmeasuresperceptionsoflocal

jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentions.

Consumerconfidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicate

degreesofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.

RegionalconsumerconfidencewashighestinAsia-Pacificwithanindex

scoreof106,aone-pointincreasefromthepreviousquarter(Q42013)

andathree-pointincreasefromayearago(Q12013).NorthAmerica

postedthelargestquarterlyincreaseoffivepointstoreachtheoptimism

baselineof100—thehighestlevelsince2007.TheMiddleEast/Africa

regionincreasedfourpointsto94,andEuroperosetwopointsto

75,comparedtofourth-quarter2013.LatinAmericareportedtheonly

quarterlyregionalconsumerconfidencedecline,fallingonepointto93.

3Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company 3

ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY

Thefindingsinthissurveyarebasedonrespondentswithonline

accessin60countries(unlessotherwisenoted).Whileanonline

surveymethodologyallowsfortremendousscaleandglobalreach,it

providesaperspectiveonlyonthehabitsofexistingInternetusers,

nottotalpopulations.Indevelopingmarketswhereonlinepenetration

isstillgrowing,audiencesmaybeyoungerandmoreaffluentthanthe

generalpopulationofthatcountry.Inaddition,surveyresponsesare

basedonclaimedbehaviorratherthanactualmetereddata.

Intheworld’sbiggesteconomies,consumerconfidenceincreasedsix

pointsintheU.S.(100),remainedflatinChina(111),increasedone

pointinJapan(81),increasedfourpointsinGermany(99),increased

eightpointsinFrance(59)andincreasedthreepointsintheU.K.(87).

“Withglobalconsumerconfidenceataseven-yearhigh,itmarks

asignificantmilestoneforthelongestrecessionsincetheGreat

Depression,”saidDr.VenkateshBala,chiefeconomistatTheCambridge

Group,apartofNielsen.“Aglobalsentimentmovestooneofcautious

stability.Asrecoverycontinues,signsofoptimismareincreasing.”

TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending

Intentions,establishedin2005,measuresconsumerconfidence,

majorconcernsandspendingintentionsamongmorethan30,000

respondentswithInternetaccess,in60countries.

Inthelatestroundofthesurvey,conductedFeb.17–March7,2014,

consumerconfidenceincreasedin60percentofmarketsmeasuredby

Nielsen—upfrom43percentthepreviousquarter(Q42013).Indonesia

(124)reportedthehighestconsumerconfidenceindexscoreforthefifth

consecutivequarter,whichwasflatcomparedtofourth-quarter2013.

CroatiaandItalyeachreportedthelowestconsumerconfidencescores

(45),anincreaseofonepointeachcomparedtothepreviousquarter.

Egypt(87)andSwitzerland(104)reportedthelargestquarter-on-quarter

increasesof11and10points,respectively.Ukraine(56)reportedthe

biggestquarterlydeclineofsevenpoints.

4 QUARTER 1 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ1-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicatedegreesofoptimism/pessimism.

Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12014

+6+2

+4+6

0

-1

-4

+10

+1

-1

+6

-5

0

+4

+2

+1

+2

-1

-1

0

-6

-2-6

+3+1

+11+8+4-4+4-2+5-4

-6+6

+40

-1

+3

+4

-1

-6

+1

+6

+3

0

+5

+3

+8

-7

+3

+8

-2+7

+2

+1

85 ISRAEL

86 LITHU

ANIA

86 M

EXICO 87

EGYPT 87 AUSTRIA

87 UNITED KINGDOM

SOUTH KOREA 51

89 AUSTRALIA

PORTUGAL 51

92 NORWAY

SERBIA 52

GREECE 53

92 MALAYSIA

HUNGARY 54

93 COLOMBIA

UKRAINE

56

98 CHILE

FRANCE 59

99 CANADA

SPAIN 61

99 PAKISTAN

ROMANIA 67

99 VIETNAM

FINLAND 67

99 SINGAPORE

SLOVAKIA 68 99 GERMANYBULGARIA 68 100 NEW ZEALAND

POLAND 70

100 DENMARK

ARGENTINA 71

100 UNITED STATES

BELGIUM 74

101 PERU

CZECH REPUBLIC 75

102 SAUDI ARABIA

TAIWAN 76

104 SWITZERLAND

NETHERLANDS 76

106 BRAZIL

LATVIA

76

108 THAILAND

VENEZUELA 7

8

111 C

HINA

ESTONIA

79

111

HONG KONG

TURKE

Y

81

114

UNITED A

RAB EM

IRATE

S

JAPA

N

81

116

PHIL

IPPI

NES

SOUT

H A

FRIC

A

82

121

IN

DIA

IREL

AND

8

2SW

EDEN

83

RUSS

IA

83

+4

SLOVENIA

48

0

124

IN

DO

NES

IA

IND

EX

COU

NTR

Y

LESS

CONFIDENT

MORE CONFIDENT

+1

ITALY45

+1

CROATIA

45

NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC

96 GLOBAL

AVERAGE( +2 change from Q4-2013 )

INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM

5Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company

60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ1-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

5

GLOBAL JOB OUTLOOK IMPROVESPositiveperceptionsaboutlocaljobprospectsoverthenext12months

increasedinthefirstquarterineveryregionexceptLatinAmerica.

Almosthalfofglobalrespondents(49%)believedthejobmarketwould

begoodorexcellentintheupcomingyear,anincreaseof2percentage

pointsinthefirstquarter,whichbringstheglobalaveragetojustbelow

thepre-recessionoutlookof50percent.Thebiggestquarterlysurgein

joboptimismcamefromNorthAmerica,increasing5percentagepoints

to43percent.Asia-Pacificrespondentsweremostoptimisticabout

employmentopportunities,with64percentbelievingthatjobprospects

werefavorablefortheyearahead,upfrom63percenttheprevious

quarter.

Anoptimisticoutlookforfuturejobprospectsalsoincreasedinthe

MiddleEast/Africa(40%)andEurope(28%),rising1and3percentage

points,respectively.InLatinAmerica,thetrendwasslightlydownward:

42percentofrespondentsregisteredpositiveperceptionsfor

employmentopportunities,comparedto43percentinfourth-quarter

2013.

Morethanhalf(55%)ofglobalrespondentsregardedtheirpersonal

financespositively,alevelthathasheldsteadyforthreeconsecutive

quarters.InLatinAmericaandAsia-Pacific,respondentsweremost

secureinmoneymatters,with63and62percent,respectively,believing

thestateoftheirfinancesweregoodorexcellent.Europeanrespondents

wereleastconfidentaboutfinances,with57percentsayingtheir

personalsituationwasnotgood.


JOB PROSPECT ATTITUDES

PERSONAL FINANCE ATTITUDES

PERCENT BELIEVING JOB PROSPECTS WILL BE GOOD OR EXCELLENT IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS

PERCENT BELIEVING THE STATE OF PERSONAL FINANCES WILL BE GOOD OR EXCELLENT IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS

Q4 2013

Q4 2013

Q1 2014

Q1 2014


63%

38% 43%

39%

25%

64%

43% 42% 40%

28%

ASIA-PACIFIC

ASIA-PACIFIC

NORTH AMERICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

EUROPE

EUROPE

MIDDLE EAST/ AFRICA

MIDDLE EAST/ AFRICA

62% 61% 57%

53%

37%

62% 63% 59% 56%

38%


PERCENT BELIEVING JOB PROSPECTS WILL BE GOOD OR EXCELLENT IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS

PERCENT BELIEVING THE STATE OF PERSONAL FINANCES WILL BE GOOD OR EXCELLENT IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS

GLOBAL RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT IMPROVESMorethanhalfofglobalrespondents(55%)feltmiredinrecessioninthe

firstquarter,animprovementcomparedto57percentintheprevious

quarter.

Regionally,recessionarysentimentimprovedmostinNorthAmerica,

down7percentagepointsto61percent,thelowestlevelsincethestart

oftherecession.Whilenearlythree-quarters(73%)ofrespondentsinthe

MiddleEast/Africaregionfeltaffectedbytherecession,thesentiment

wasanimprovementfrom75percentinfourth-quarter2013.Sixty-nine

percentinEurope,62percentinLatinAmerica,and43percentinAsia-

Pacificbelievedtheywereinaneconomicrecessioninthefirstquarter.

Morethantwo-thirds(68%)ofmarketsmeasuredbyNielsenreported

animprovedrecessionarysentimentcomparedtofourth-quarter2013,

withthesteepestimprovementsintheUnitedArabEmirates(-11

percentagepoints),Switzerland(-11pp)andPeru(-10pp).Recessionary

sentimentalsoimprovedby9percentagepointsinMexico,Vietnam,

RomaniaandNewZealandandby8pointsintheU.S.andthe

Netherlands.


RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT AROUND THE WORLD

PERCENT THAT BELIEVE THEIR COUNTRY IS IN AN ECONOMIC RECESSION


Q1 2008

Q3 2008

Q1 2009

Q2 2009

Q3 2009

Q4 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Q3 2010

Q4 2010

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

Q3 2013

Q4 2013

Q1 2014

Global Average Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East/Africa North America

100%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%


PERCENT THAT BELIEVE THEIR COUNTRY IS IN AN ECONOMIC RECESSION

U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REACHES A SEVEN-YEAR HIGH U.S.consumerconfidenceincreasedsixindexpointsinthefirstquarter

toreach100—theoptimismbaselineandthehighestscoresince

third-quarter2007.ElsewhereinNorthAmerica,confidenceinCanada

declinedonepointinthefirstquarterto99andwasdownfrom102last

year(Q12013).

U.S.savingsandinvestingintentionspickeduppaceinthefirst

quarter,with44percentofrespondentsputtingsparecashintosavings

accounts,upfrom39percentinfourth-quarter2013.Fifteenpercent

investedinstocksandmutualfunds,upfrom11percenttheprevious

quarter.Morethanone-third(36%)saidtheypaiddebts,creditcards

andloans,aquarterlyincreaseof5percentagepoints.

U.S.discretionaryspendingintentionsalsoincreased2percentage

pointsinthefirstquarterfornewclothes(26%)andhomeimprovement

projects(21%).Buyingnewtechnologyandspendingonout-of-home

entertainmentwereprioritiesfor21percentofrespondentseach,up4

and3percentagepoints,respectively,comparedtofourth-quarter2013.

“Whilefast-movingconsumergoodsspendingpatternsintheU.S.

continuetomovesideways,asevidencedbynearlyflat(0.2%)unitsales

gainsinthefirstquarter,asignificantmilestonehasbeenreachedwith

consumerconfidencenowatitshighestlevelsince2007,”saidJames

Russo,seniorvicepresident,GlobalConsumerInsights,Nielsen.


CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN NORTH AMERICA


Q3 2007

Q1 2008

Q3 2008

Q1 2009

Q2 2009

Q3 2009

Q4 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Q3 2010

Q4 2010

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

Q3 2013

Q4 2013

Q1 2014

United States Canada

120

60

70

80

90

100

110


EUROPE’S RECOVERY IS FRAGILE, BUT PROGRESSING ConsumerconfidenceinEuropeincreasedin21of32marketsinthe

firstquarter,withthebiggestincreasesfromsomeoftheregion’slowest

indexperformers.ConfidenceinFrance(59)andGreece(53)increased

eightindexpointseach,andPortugal(51)andSpain(61)increased

sevenandthreepoints,respectively,comparedtofourth-quarter2013.

ConsumerconfidenceinGermanyremainedrobustwithascoreof99,

anincreaseoffourpointsfromthepreviousquarterandthecountry’s

highestindexscorerecorded(sinceNielsenbeganmeasuringconsumer

confidencein2005).

Thelongroadtorecovery,hasbeguninkeymarkets,suchasFrance,

ItalyandSpain,”saidDr.Bala.Germanycontinuestoperformwell,

reportingthelowestunemploymentrateintheeurozone,andrecovery

intheU.K.continuestogathermomentum.”

“InGermany,theconsumerconfidenceindexreachedanewrecord

high,”saidIngoSchier,managingdirector,NielsenGermany.“After

100daysunderthenewgovernment,thewaiveontaxincreases,as

wellastheintroductionofminimumwagesandpensionsformothers,

aremeasuresthathelpedtostrengthenoptimismaboutthefuture.As

GermanyplaysanimportantroleinthebroaderEuropeancontext,this

optimismspellsgoodnewsfortheregion.”

FuturejobprospectsinEuropeincreasedin24of32markets.Themost

notablejoboptimismincreasescamefromSwitzerland,up8percentage

points;Austria,Ireland,GreeceandEstonia,up6percentagepoints

each;GermanyandFranceup5percentagepointseach;andtheU.K.,

Russia,FinlandandHungaryup4percentagepointseach,comparedto

fourth-quarter2013.Discretionaryspending,however,remainedvirtually

flatacrossallspendingcategoriesmeasuredinthefirstquarter.


CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN EUROPE

Q12014CIRCLESDENOTEINDEXDIFFERENCEFROMQ42013

Switzerland

France

Greece

Portugal

Estonia

Bulgaria

Ireland

Romania

Germany

Lithuania

Russia

CzechRepublic

Slovenia

UnitedKingdom

Slovakia

Spain

Hungary

Austria

Poland

Croatia

Italy

Latvia

Finland

Netherlands

Belgium

Norway

Sweden

Serbia

Israel

Denmark

Turkey

Ukraine

104 |

59 |

53 |

51 |

79 |

68 |

82 |

67 |

99 |

86 |

83 |

75 |

48 |

87 |

68 |

61 |

54 |

87 |

70 |

45 |

45 |

76 |

67 |

76 |

74 |

92 |

83 |

52 |

85 |

100 |

81 |

56 |

10

8

8

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

1

1

1

1

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

-2

-4

-5

-6

-7


“IntheU.K.,consumerconfidencerosetoitshighestlevelinsixyears,

boostedbyimprovingsentimentforjobprospects,”saidChrisMorley,

managingdirector,NielsenU.K.andIreland.“Whilethemacroeconomic

situationcontinuestorecover,optimismhasnotyetfilteredthroughto

people’spersonalfinances.Therehasbeenonlyaminorimprovementin

Britishconsumers’willingnesstospend,and1in4stillreportshaving

nosparecash.”

ConsumerconfidenceinRussiaincreasedfourindexpointsto83in

thefirstquarter,whileUkrainedeclinedsevenindexpointsto56—the

country’slowestscoresinceitwasaddedtotheNielsenGlobalSurveyin

second-quarter2009.

“InUkraine,thedropinconsumerconfidenceisnotsurprisingasrecent

eventsspurredbytheconflictinCrimeaarecreatingfearanduncertainty

inthecountry,”saidSvyatoslavaSvyst,marketleader,NielsenUkraine.

“Thedangerofwarandtheseverecurrencydevaluationcontributedto

consumerdoubtsaboutthecountry’sfuturefinancialandeconomic

stability.”


SPENDING INTENTIONS INCREASE IN ASIA-PACIFICConsumerconfidenceinAsia-Pacificincreasedineightof14markets

inthefirstquarter,wasflatinthreeanddeclinedinthree.Theregion’s

biggestquarterlyindexincreasewassixpoints,inbothIndia(121)and

HongKong(111).India’sindexrisereturnsthescoretoafourth-quarter

2012levelafterseveralquartersofdecliningperformance.Consumer

confidenceinthePhilippines(116)andThailand(108),aswellas

Indonesia(124)andChina(111),wereamongthehighestindexscoresof

the60countriesmeasured.

“InIndia,theoverallperceptionabouttheeconomyhasachieveda

steadystateasmanybelievethatthingscannotgetworseandthat

investmentswillpickupastheIndianfiscalyearendsandmost

householdsexpectthepositiveimpactofyear-endbonuses,”said

PiyushMathur,president,NielsenIndia.“However,inflationcontinues

tobeachallenge,andthereisasenseofcautiousanticipationabout

theoutcomesoftheworld’slargestdemocraticelection.Despitethese

factors,discretionaryspendingintentionsareslightlymorebuoyantthan

previousquarters,asistypicalattheendofthefinancialyear,andin

goodtimeforthesummerholidayseason.”

“InChina,weseestrongerconfidenceamongrespondentsinTier2and

Tier3cities,comparedwiththoseinTier1,”saidYanXuan,presidentof

NielsenGreaterChina.“Intheselowertierlocations,consumershave

higheraveragesalariesthantheircounterpartsinlowertierlocations,

andtheyhavelessworkandlifepressuresthanthoselivinginTier1

cities.Consumersinthemiddletiercitiesalsodemonstrateagreater

willingnesstopurchasemorepremiumproducts.Thecontinuedrise

oftheChinesemiddle-classthroughoutthecountrybodesverywellfor

China’sgoaltogrowitsGDPthroughmoredomesticconsumption,

ratherthansolelyrelyoninfrastructureinvestmentandexport.”

Indonesia

India

Philippines

China

HongKong

Thailand

NewZealand

Vietnam

Singapore

Malaysia

Australia

Japan

Taiwan

SouthKorea

124

121

116

111

111

108

100

99

99

92

89

81

76

51

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN ASIA-PACIFIC

Q1 2014CIRCLES DENOTE DIFFERENCE FROM Q4 2013


0

6

2

0

6

-1

0

1

2

-6

-6

1

3

2


ConsumerconfidenceinAustralia(89)andMalaysia(92)declined

sixindexpointseachinthefirstquarter.Australia’sindexdroppedto

itslowestscoreonrecord(sinceNielsenbeganmeasuringconsumer

confidencein2005),and44percentofrespondentsfeltmiredin

recession—upfrom31percentinfourth-quarter2013.

“InAustralia,anumberoflargemanufacturersannouncedcostcutting

efforts,jobcutsandoff-shoringofmanufacturingfacilitiesinthefirst

quarter,whichhaslikelyimpactedAustralians’overallconfidencelevels

inthecountry’seconomicoutlook,”saidChrisPercy,managingdirector,

NielsenPacific.“ThissentimentisreflectedinAustralians’increasing

concernaroundjobprospectsandtheperceptionofthestateoftheir

personalfinances.”

DiscretionarysavingandspendingintentionsintheAsia-Pacificregion

increasedacrossallcategoriesmeasured.Theregionboastedthe

mostprolificsavers,with67percentputtingsparecashintosavings

accounts—anincreaseof7percentagepointscomparedtofourth-

quarter2013.Investinginsharesofstocksandmutualfunds(38%)was

alsoup7percentagepointsinthefirstquarter.Spendingintentions

increasedfornewclothes(+6percentagepoints),homeimprovement

projects(+6pp),holidays/vacations(+4pp),out-of-homeentertainment

(+3pp)andnewtechnology(+3pp),comparedtofourth-quarter2013.


LATIN AMERICA REPORTS CONFIDENCE UPS AND DOWNSBrazilledtheLatinAmericaregionwithanindexof106,whichdeclined

fourpointsfromfourth-quarter2013.Brazilianrespondentsreportedan

optimisticoutlookforlocaljobprospects(58%)andpersonalfinances

(72%),thoughthesefiguresrepresentdeclinesof5and4percentage

points,respectively.

Thebiggestregionalquarter-on-quarterconsumerconfidenceindex

scoreincreaseswereinMexico(86)andVenezuela(78),whichrose

eightandfourpoints,respectively.Conversely,consumerconfidencein

Argentina(71)declinedsixpoints,whileChile(98)andPeru(101)each

fellonepoint,respectively,comparedtofourth-quarter2013.Colombia’s

indexremainedflatinthefirstquarterwithascoreof93.

ThebiggestconcernsforLatinAmericansincludedworriesaboutjob

security(16%),theeconomy(13%),crime(11%),work/lifebalance(9%)

andhealth(9%).

Regionally,quarter-on-quarterdiscretionaryspendingincreaseswere

reportedforout-of-homeentertainmentexpenses(+3percentage

points),newtechnologyproducts(+3pp)andhomeimprovement

projects(+2pp).Nearlyone-third(32%)ofLatinAmericanrespondents

putmoneyintosavingsand35percentpaiddebts,creditcardsand

loans.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN LATIN AMERICA

Q1 2014 CIRCLES DENOTE

DIFFERENCEFROM Q4 2013


BRAZIL

PERU

CHILE

COLOMBIA

MEXICO

ARGENTINA

VENEZUELA

106

101

98

93

86

78

71

-4

-1

-1

0

4

-6

8


OPTIMISM GROWS IN THE MIDDLE EAST/AFRICAUnitedArabEmirates(114)andSaudiArabia(102)reportedthehighest

consumerconfidenceindexscoresintheregion,increasingfourand

onepoints,respectively,comparedtofourth-quarter2013.Confidencein

Egyptincreasedmostintheregion,rising11pointsinthefirstquarter

to87.Pakistanincreasedtwopointsto99,andSouthAfricapostedthe

onlyregionalconfidencedeclineoffourpointsto82.

RecessionarysentimentimprovedintheUnitedArabEmirates,where

thepercentageofrespondentswhobelievedtheywereinrecession

droppedfrom44percentinfourth-quarter2013to33percent—the

lowestlevelintheregion.InPakistan,recessionarysentimentdeclined

aswell,falling6percentagepointsto76percent.Conversely,the

percentageofrespondentsfeelingmiredinrecessionincreased9

percentagepointsinSouthAfricato76percent,comparedtofourth-

quarter2013.

Regionaldiscretionaryspendingintentionsincreasedforallcategories

measuredinthefirstquarter,withthebiggestincreasesforholidays/

vacationsandout-of-homeentertainmentrising4and3percentage

points,respectively.Intentionstobuynewclothesandspendonhome

improvementprojectsincreased2percentagepointseach.Thirty-seven

percentputsparecashintosavingsand10percentinvestedinstocks,

increasesof2percentagepointseachinthefirstquarter.Twenty-

twopercentintheregionsaidtheyhadnosparecash,adeclineof3

percentagepointscomparedtofourth-quarter2013.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA

Q1 2014 CIRCLES DENOTEDIFFERENCE FROM Q4 2013


4

1

2

11

-4

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

SAUDI ARABIA

PAKISTAN

EGYPT

SOUTH AFRICA

114

102

99

87

82


CONFIDENCE IS MEASURED IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA NewtotheNielsenconsumerconfidencemeasurementinthefirst

quarteristheadditionofthreesub-SaharanAfricanmarkets—Nigeria,

KenyaandGhana.Amobilesurveymethodologywasdeployedtogauge

sentimentinthesecountries,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodology

usedtoreportconsumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsforthe

other60countriesoutlinedinthisreport.Assuch,thesethreesub-

SaharanAfricanmarketsarenotincludedintheglobalorMiddleEast/

Africaaveragesdiscussedthroughoutthisreport.Themobilesurvey

methodologyisaviablerepresentationofconsumersinthesemarkets,

wheremobilepenetrationexceedsonlinepenetration.


Ofthethreecountries,Nigeria’sconsumerconfidencewashighest

withanindexscoreof120inthefirstquarter.Kenyaalsoreportedan

optimistic,above-the-baselinescoreof110,andGhana’sscorewasjust

belowthebaselineat97.MorethanhalfofrespondentsinKenya(57%)

andNigeria(52%)wereoptimisticaboutlocaljobprospectsinthenext

12months,comparedwith42percentinGhana.

“Asseeninotherdevelopingmarkets,consumersinAfricagenerally

haveanextremelypositiveoutlook,whichisencouragingforconsumer

businesseslookingatgrowthinAfrica,”saidDwightWatson,managing

director,Nielsen,sub-SaharanAfrica.“However,withspendon

consumerproductsalreadyaccountingforonaveragejustover50

percentofincome,consumersarecautiousabouttheircurrentabilityto

spend,thereforeproductchoicestomeetconsumers’needsremainsthe

keyopportunity.”

While80percentofNigerianrespondentswereconfidentabouttheir

personalfinances,justunderhalf(49%)believedthatnowwasagood

timetospend.InKenya,69percentofrespondentsbelievedmoney

mattersweregoodorexcellent,and36percentwereconfidentintheir

currentspendingcapacity.InGhana,62percentwereoptimisticabout

theirfinances,and34percentofrespondentswerereadytospend.

Themajorityofrespondentsinthethreecountries(71%inGhana,66%

inKenyaand59%inNigeria)didnothavesparecash.Amongthosewho

didhavediscretionarymoneytospend,savingandspendingintentions

inthethreecountriesshowedsimilarpriorities.Savingwasapriority

for91percentinKenya,83percentinNigeriaand76percentinGhana,

followedbyspendingonhomeimprovementprojects(74%inKenya,

73%inNigeria,64%Ghana).

Otherspendingintentionsinclude:investinginstocks(70%inKenya,

66%inGhana,63%inNigeria),buyingnewtechnologyproducts(48%

inNigeria,40%inKenya,34%inGhana),spendingonout-of-home

entertainment(47%inKenya,44%inNigeria,25%inGhana)and

buyingnewclothes(57%inKenya,40%inNigeria,30%inGhana).

SPARE CASH SPENDING INTENTIONS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

PERCENT PLANNING TO SPEND DISCRETIONARY INCOME ON THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES


SPARE CASH SPENDING INTENTIONS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

GHANA KENYA NIGERIA

Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12014BasedonMobileSurveyMethodology

PUTTING INTO SAVINGS RETIREMENT FUNDOUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT

INVESTING IN STOCK/MUTUAL FUNDS

NEW TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTS

PAYING DEBTS/CREDIT CARDS/LOANS

HOME IMPROVEMENTS/DECORATING NEW CLOTHES HOLIDAYS/VACATIONS

76% 41% 25%

66% 34% 27%

64% 30% 18%

83% 27% 44%

63% 48% 31%

73% 40% 28%

91% 50% 47%

70% 40% 31%

74% 57% 29%

PERCENT PLANNING TO SPEND DISCRETIONARY INCOME ON THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES


Source:InternetWorldStats,June30,2012

MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION

Australia 89%

China 40%

HongKong 75%

India 11%

Indonesia 22%

Japan 80%

Malaysia 61%

NewZealand 88%

Philippines 32%

Singapore 75%

South Korea 83%

Taiwan 75%

Thailand 30%

Vietnam 34%

MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION MARKET INTERNET

PENETRATION


Austria 80%

Belgium 81%

Bulgaria 51%

Croatia 71%

CzechRepublic 73%

Denmark 90%

Estonia 78%


Egypt 36%

Pakistan 15%

SaudiArabia 49%

SouthAfrica 17%

UnitedArabEmirates

71%


Canada 83%

UnitedStates 78%

MARKET MOBILE PENETRATION*

Ghana 99%

Kenya 68%

Nigeria 64%

COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY

ASIA-PACIFIC

EUROPE

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

LATIN AMERICAEUROPE

Finland 89%

France 80%

Germany 83%

Greece 53%

Hungary 65%

Ireland 77%

Israel 70%

Italy 58%

Latvia 72%

Lithuania 65%

Netherlands 93%

Norway 97%

Poland 65%

Portugal 55%

Romania 44%

Russia 48%

Serbia 56%

Slovakia 79%

Slovenia 72%

Spain 67%

Sweden 93%

Switzerland 82%

Turkey 46%

UnitedKingdom 84%

Ukraine 34%

Argentina 66%

Brazil 46%

Chile 59%

Colombia 60%

Mexico 37%

Peru 37%

Venezuela 41%

*Basedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulation.Source:CIAWorldFactbook,2012


ABOUT NIELSEN NielsenHoldingsN.V.(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalinformationand

measurementcompanywithleadingmarketpositionsinmarketing

andconsumerinformation,televisionandothermediameasurement,

onlineintelligenceandmobilemeasurement.Nielsenhasapresencein

approximately100countries,withheadquartersinNewYork,USAand

Diemen,theNetherlands.

Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.

Copyright©2014TheNielsenCompany.Allrightsreserved.Nielsenand

theNielsenlogoaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofCZT/ACN

Trademarks,L.L.C.Otherproductandservicenamesaretrademarksor

registeredtrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies.14/7664

ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending

IntentionswasconductedFeb.17–March7,2014andpolledmore

than30,000onlineconsumersin60countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,

Europe,LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast,AfricaandNorthAmerica.

Thesamplehasquotasbasedonageandsexforeachcountrybased

onitsInternetusers,andisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternet

consumers.Ithasamarginoferrorof±0.6percent.ThisNielsen

surveyisbasedonlyonthebehaviorofrespondentswithonline

access.Internetpenetrationratesvarybycountry.Nielsenusesa

minimumreportingstandardof60percentInternetpenetrationor

anonlinepopulationof10millionforsurveyinclusion.TheChina

ConsumerConfidenceIndexiscompiledfromaseparatemixed

methodologysurveyamong3,500respondentsinChina.Thesub-

SaharanAfricancountriesinthisstudyarecompiledfromaseparate

mobilemethodologysurveyamong1,600respondentsinGhana,Kenya

andNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,whichincludestheGlobal

ConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablishedin2005.

consumer confidence - nielsen...recession levels global consumer confidence returned to a...

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