consumer credit worldwide

Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010

Consumer Credit worldwideConsumer Credit worldwide at endat end--2010 2010

July 2011


For the third year in a row, Sofinco, a brand of Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance, has devoted an issue of its Consumer Credit Overview to a special report on the global consumer credit market.At end-2010, global consumer loans outstanding totalled EUR

5,473 billion, representing an increase of 2.5% on 2009.

The size of the market varies from region to region: North

America

(EUR 2,190 billion) accounts for almost 40% of global outstanding loans; In contrast, Africa

(EUR 85 billion) represents just 2% of global outstanding loans; Asia and the Middle East

combined represent the second-largest consumer credit region, with outstanding loans of EUR 1,540 billion; Europe

comes in behind this with EUR 1,310 billion.

The global consumer credit market remains quite concentrated:

The five main markets (US, Japan, Canada, the UK and Germany) represented 62% of global outstandings in 2010; this figure is however down: it was 76% in 2008;

The 15 largest markets account for 83% of global outstandings.

The 2.5% global increase observed in 2010 is distributed unevenly:

In 2010, consumer credit outstandings grew rapidly in South America (+22%) and, to a lesser extent, in Asia and the Middle East (+7.1%), Africa (+6.6%) and Oceania (+2.2%).

In contrast, they continued to shrink in North America (-0.6%) and Europe (-0.3%). This decline was even more marked in the 27 EU member states (-2.8%).

We can therefore see that the emerging and developed markets are converging at an ever-faster rate.

Differences also exist in the level of outstandings

per capita, although these are becoming less marked. In 2010, the average

outstandings per capita worldwide stood at around EUR

790. The level of outstandings per capita is by far greatest in Canada (EUR 10,157), followed by Japan (EUR 5,973) and the US (EUR 5,886). In Europe, average outstandings per capita are modest (EUR 1,667).

In most emerging markets, outstandings per capita are rapidly increasing, in particular in Latin and South America (Brazil, Argentina) but also in Asia and the Middle East (China, Indonesia, Thailand).

‎ Global consumer credit at end-2010

SummarySummary


The primary data on consumer credit presented in this report were sourced from central banks and national statistical institutions.

They were processed by the economic analysis firm Asterès so as to ensure consistency in terms of product and market scope: In terms of operators, they include banking and non-banking agents (i.e. all credit institutions). In terms of products, they include bank overdrafts, even those obtained for purchasing consumer goods, but exclude mortgage loans.

To enable comparisons to be drawn between markets, all data were converted into euro at the average 2010 exchange rate. This is an important point that may explain significant variations between years.

The majority of data presented in this report are estimated and the complete accuracy thereof cannot be guaranteed. Variations may exist in the quality of statistics obtained from primary sources (frequently central banks), and sometimes in the availability of such statistics. This is particularly true of statistics relating to non-banking operators.

For the purposes of this report, six geographic regions were defined in line with certain specific features of the consumer credit market. These six regions are: North America South America Europe

While these regions are broadly based on their standard geographical definition, the following points should be noted:

In addition to the 27 EU member states, Europe as referred to in this report includes Switzerland, Norway, Russia, Ukraine, Croatia, Serbia and Turkey. Given the change in scope, the figures indicated may differ from data presented in the Sofinco report entitled "The European consumer credit market in 2010" published in June 2011, which dealt exclusively with the 27 EU member states.

North America includes the US, Canada and Mexico. The Middle East is combined with Asia.

MethodologyMethodology

& & forewordforeword

Global consumer credit at end-2010

Africa Asia & the Middle East Oceania


Global consumer Global consumer creditcredit

mapmap

Breakdown of consumer credit outstandings

at end-2010



40% of global outstandings is accounted for by North America, i.e. the US (33% of global outstandings), Canada (6%) and, to a lesser extent, Mexico.

Asia and the Middle East (26%) represents the second-largest consumer credit region, with outstandings of EUR 1,540 billion, a figure that far outstrips Europe's outstandings of EUR 1,310 billion.

Consumer credit outstandings in Africa represent just 1.6% of the global total. South Africa is the leading African market with estimated outstandings of around EUR 51 billion. Nevertheless, the gaps are narrowing.

Source: Asterès

MarkedMarked

disparitydisparity

betweenbetween

regionsregions

PercentagePercentage

of global of global outstandingsoutstandings2010 consumer credit 2010 consumer credit outstandingsoutstandings

per region (in EUR billions)per region (in EUR billions)

(40%)

(28%)

(24%)

(4.3%)

(2.1%)

(1.6%)

(40%)

(28%)

(24%)

(4.3%)

(2.1%)

(1.6%)


85

112

237

1,310

1,540

2,190

Africa

Oceania

Latin America

Europe

Asia & the Middle East

North America

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

North America


Europe

Latin America

Oceania

Africa


An annual increase of 2.5% An annual increase of 2.5%

The global consumer credit market recovered in 2010, expanding by 2.5%. However, this global increase conceals a decoupling

of emerging countries, where there is strong growth in consumer credit, from developed countries, which are struggling.

The strongest growth in the consumer credit market was recorded in Latin America (21.9%). Brazil, the region's leading market, displayed particularly strong momentum (+30%), as did Argentina (+37%).

In Africa, market growth was solid (+6.6%), particularly in South Africa.

Total outstandings in Asia and the Middle East grew by 7.1% compared with 2009, primarily thanks to the momentum of certain Asian countries (China, India, Indonesia, Thailand). However, in Japan, the zone's largest market, outstandings shrank by 5.3%. Ex-Japan, growth in Asia and the Middle East amounted to 24%.

For their part, the North American and European markets continued to contract (shedding 0.6% and 0.3% respectively). In Europe, outside of the EU where outstandings fell by 2.5%, certain emerging markets continued to grow (Turkey) or rebounded sharply (Russia).

Changes are calculated using amounts in EUR (2010 average exchange rate).

Source: Asterès


-0.6%

-0.3%

2.2%

6.6%

21.9%

7.1%

North America

Europe

Oceania

Africa


Latin America

Change in consumer credit Change in consumer credit outstandingsoutstandings

per region from 2009 to 2010 (%):per region from 2009 to 2010 (%):

Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010Sources: Feri, Asterès

Global growth recovered in 2010 (+4%), driven by the strength of emerging markets (+7.5%).

Global consumer spending held up well overall (+2.4%). Here too, emerging markets (+4.6%) bolstered global demand.

ContextContext: global consumer : global consumer spendingspending

Average annual growth rate 2000Average annual growth rate 2000--2010 (vol., %)2010 (vol., %) Annual growth in 2010 (vol., %)Annual growth in 2010 (vol., %)


4.9%

1.2%

2.1%

4.6%

1.5%

2.4%

Emerging countries Developed countries Global

GDP Household spending

7.5%

2.7%

4.0%4.6%

1.5%

2.4%

Emerging countries Developed countries Global

GDP Household spending


In North

America, the average consumer credit outstandings per capita exceeded EUR 4,800. In particular, the highest level worldwide was recorded in Canada, where outstandings per capita topped EUR 10,000.

Outstandings per capita were also high in Oceania

(Australia and New Zealand) at around EUR 3,200.

In Europe, the figure stands at a little over EUR 1,600, due to the inclusion of emerging countries (primarily Central and Eastern European countries) and certain large developed countries (Southern Europe) where the use of credit remains moderate.

Sharp growth was noted in outstandings per capita in Latin and South America (now at around EUR 500).

The figure is also on the increase in Asia and the Middle East

(EUR 400). There are marked disparities even within this region. The amount of outstandings per capita in Japan (EUR 5,973) is 38 times higher than in China. The consumer credit market has been rapidly expanding in most countries in the region, in particular in China and South-East Asia.

On average, consumer credit indebtedness in Africa

remains low. However, as in Asia, there are great differences within the region: outstandings per capita exceed EUR 1,000 in South Africa whereas in the continent's northern countries, the figure is on average 10 times less than that.

Source: Asterès

Outstandings per capita (2010, in EUR):Outstandings per capita (2010, in EUR):

Global Global outstandingsoutstandings

per capita at EURper capita at EUR

787 in 2010 787 in 2010


82

370

497

1,667

3,195

4,819

Africa


Latin America

Europe

Oceania

North America

Consumer Credit Worlwide at end-2010Source: Asterès

The weighting of the 5 largest markets has fallen: from 76% in 2The weighting of the 5 largest markets has fallen: from 76% in 2008 to 62% 008 to 62% in 2010in 2010

Share of total global Share of total global outstandingsoutstandings

(2010, %)(2010, %)Weighting of the 5 largest markets in total global Weighting of the 5 largest markets in total global outstandingsoutstandings

(2010, %)(2010, %)

Although the global consumer credit market is still concentrated, it is becoming increasingly less so: indeed, the five largest markets (US, Japan, Canada, the UK and Germany) now represent just 62% of global outstandings compared with 76% in 2008.

In addition, the 15 largest markets now account for just 83% of global consumer credit outstandings compared with their 90% share of the global market in 2008.

These figures reflect the sustained growth seen in most emerging markets (particularly China, now the world's 6th-largest market).


76%

65%62%

2008 2009 2010

62%

77%

83%

5 largest markets

10 largest markets

15 largest markets


Sources: central banks, Asterès

The US

is the world's largest consumer credit market, with outstandings amounting to EUR 1,815 billion at end-2010. This is more than twice the level of outstandings in Japan, the next largest market.

With EUR 249 billion in outstandings, the UK

represents the fourth-largest market in the world, ranking just below Canada

(EUR 343 billion), and is Europe's leading market.

Fifth in the world, Germany

is the largest market in the eurozone.

With estimated outstandings of EUR 209 billion at end-2010, representing a leap of 54.2%, China

is the second-largest Asian market after Japan

and sixth-largest in the world, ahead of France.

Brazil

has also overtaken France in terms of outstandings (EUR 172 billion). It is the largest market in Latin America as well as one of the region's most thriving markets (+29.6% compared with 2009).

2010 2010 outstandingsoutstandings

of the 15 largest markets (in EURof the 15 largest markets (in EUR

billions):billions):

Top 15: China and Brazil now rank above FranceTop 15: China and Brazil now rank above France


5657699098114152152172209229249

343763

1,815

TurkeyIndonesia

RussiaSpain

AustraliaItaly

South KoreaFranceBrazilChina

GermanyUK

CanadaJapan

United States


The Chinese consumer credit market grew by more than 60%, comparable to the increase reported between 2008 and 2009.

The US market, the largest in the world in terms of outstandings, shrank by 1.7%.

The UK, Europe's leading market, also contracted by 2.7%.

Change in consumer credit Change in consumer credit outstandingsoutstandings

from 2009 to 2010 (%):from 2009 to 2010 (%):


Top 15: change in Top 15: change in outstandingsoutstandings

of the 15 largest markets from 2009 to 2010of the 15 largest markets from 2009 to 2010


-5.7%

-5.3%

-1.7%0.5%

0.9%

1.7%2.4%

5.0%

9.8%16.6%

25.8%

29.6%31.5%

59%

-10.7%SpainUK

JapanUnited States

GermanyItaly

FranceAustraliaCanada

South KoreaRussia

IndonesiaBrazil

TurkeyChina


Canada

has the highest level of consumer credit outstandings per capita in the world, at over EUR 10,000.

Japan

ranks second (EUR 5,973), closely followed by the US

(EUR 5,886), which is trailed by Australia

(EUR 4,614) and the UK

(EUR 3,998).

Outstandings per capita in Spain

dropped sharply in 2010, now standing at less than EUR 2,000.

Although not among the fifteen largest markets in terms of total outstandings, Ireland (EUR 4,471), Denmark (EUR 3,174) and Greece (EUR 3,138) have some of the highest levels of outstandings per capita in the world.

Consumer Consumer creditcredit

outstandingsoutstandings

per capita in 2010 (in EUR):per capita in 2010 (in EUR):

Top 15: Top 15: outstandingsoutstandings

per capita in the leading 15 marketsper capita in the leading 15 markets



158235

497

720865

1,893

1,9562,410

2,801

3,1353,998

4,614

5,8865,973

10,157

ChinaIndonesia

RussiaTurkeyBrazil

ItalySpain

FranceGermany

South KoreaUK

AustraliaUnited States

JapanCanada


Top 15: Top 15: outstandingsoutstandings

per capita per capita vsvs

total consumer credit total consumer credit outstandingsoutstandings

The largest markets do not necessarily have the highest levels of outstandings per capita. For example:

Canada, where total consumer credit outstandings amount to EUR 343 billion (i.e. 6% of global outstandings), only ranks 3rd in terms of total outstandings but 1st in terms of outstandings per capita.

China ranks 6th in terms of total outstandings yet is last in the list when it comes to outstandings per capita.

Rank Outstandings per capita (in EUR)

1 Canada 10,157

2 Japan 5,973

3 United States 5,886

4 Australia 4,614

5 UK 3,998

6 South Korea 3,135

7 Germany 2,801

8 France 2,410

9 Spain 1,956

10 Italy 1,893

11 Brazil 865

12 Turkey 720

13 Russia 497

14 Indonesia 235

15 China 158

Rank Outstandings (in EUR millions)

1 United States 1,815

2 Japan 763

3 Canada 343

4 UK 249

5 Germany 229

6 China 209

7 Brazil 172

8 France 152

9 South Korea 152

10 Italy 114

11 Australia 98

12 Spain 90

13 Russia 69

14 Indonesia 57

15 Turkey 56



Europe24%


28%

North America

40%

Latin America 4%

Oceania 2% Africa

2%

North America is by far the world's largest consumer credit market. Total outstandings in the region stood at EUR 2,190 billion at end-2010, representing 40% of global outstandings.

Average outstandings per capita are the highest in the world (EUR 4,819). The two main markets (the US and Canada) are notable for their strong consumer credit penetration rates, the result of a very high level of consumer spending per capita as well as of the highly competitive and extensive credit market.

1st: United States EUR

1,815 billion in outstandings

at end-2010i.e. 33% of global outstandings and 82.9% of outstandings in North America EUR 5,885 per capita

2nd: Canada

EUR

343 billion in outstandings

at end-2010i.e. 6% of global outstandings and 15.7% of outstandings in North America EUR 10,157 per capita

3rd: Mexico

EUR


at end-2010i.e. 0.6% of global outstandings and 1.5% of outstandings in North America EUR 290 per capita

Focus on: North America, the world's largest marketFocus on: North America, the world's largest market


Breakdown of Breakdown of outstandingsoutstandings

by regionby region


by by country in North America country in North America

Mexico2%

United States82%

Canada16%


Asia and the Middle East combined represent the second-largest consumer credit market in the world. Outstandings in the region stood at EUR 1,540 billion at end- 2010, i.e. 28% of global outstandings.

The region is dominated by Japan, the second-largest market in the world, and China. The Chinese market is notable for its strong growth in outstandings (more than 50% in 2010). It is now the sixth-largest market in the world, ranking above France.

In terms of credit, this region is very diverse, with large developed markets (Japan, South Korea, Singapore) and high-growth emerging markets (China, Thailand, Indonesia, India).

1st: Japan

EUR


at end-2010i.e. 13.9% of global outstandings and 50% of outstandings in Asia & the Middle East EUR 5,973 per capita

2nd: China

EUR


at end-2010i.e. 3.8% of global outstandings and 14% of outstandings in Asia & the Middle East EUR 158 per capita

3rd: South Korea

EUR


at end-2010i.e. 2.8% of global outstandings and 10% of outstandings in Asia & the Middle East

EUR 3,135 per capita

Focus on: Asia and the Middle East, the world's secondFocus on: Asia and the Middle East, the world's second--largest marketlargest market



by regionby region


by by country in Asia and the Middle Eastcountry in Asia and the Middle East

Other26%

South Korea10%

Japan50%

China14%

Europe24%


28%

North America

40%

Latin America 4%

Oceania 2% Africa

2%


The European consumer credit market represented outstandings of EUR 1,310 billion at end-2010, i.e. 24% of global outstandings

(losing speed compared with Asia and the Middle East).

Outstandings per capita (EUR 1,667) are modest in view of the level of development in most of the region's economies.

The 27 EU member states (EUR 1,105 billion) account for 85% of the market.

1st: UK EUR


at end-2010*i.e. 4.5% of global outstandings and 22% of outstandings in Europe EUR 3,998 per capita

2nd: Germany

EUR


at end-2010i.e. 4.2% of global outstandings and 21% of outstandings in Europe EUR 2,801 per capita

3rd: France

EUR


at end-2010i.e. 2.8% of global outstandings and 12% of outstandings in Europe EUR 2,410 per capita

Focus on: Europe, the world's thirdFocus on: Europe, the world's third--largest marketlargest market

* The variation compared with the previous report is primarily due to changes in the exchange rate.** The data were updated on the basis of outstandings published by the Banque de France and reprocessed using estimated data for France's overseas départements, i.e. EUR 151.7 billion in outstandings at end-2010



by regionby region


by by country in Europecountry in Europe

Other45%

France12%

UK22%

Germany21%

Europe24%


28%

North America

40%

Latin America 4%

Oceania 2% Africa

2%


With EUR 78.1 billion in consumer credit outstandings under management at end-2010, Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance is the leading player on Europe's consumer credit market.

Via its subsidiaries, Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance operates in 19 European countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK) as well as in Saudi Arabia, Morocco and China.

At end-2010, two-thirds of its outstandings under management were generated by international activities.

Sofinco is a French brand of Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance.

CrCréédit Agricole Consumer Financedit Agricole Consumer Finance Europe's leader in consumer creditEurope's leader in consumer credit



Contact :

Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance

DPCI

H.0.2. - rue du Bois Sauvage - 91038 Evry cedex (France)

Tél. : 33 (0)1 60 76 88 17

E-mail : [email protected]

All Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance ‘s studies are available from www.ca-consumerfinance.com, Section Consumer Credit Overview

consumer credit worldwide

Business