contemporary regional geostrategic issues

8/4/2019 Contemporary Regional Geostrategic Issues

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CONTEMPORARY REGIONALGEOSTRATEGIC ISSUES:

IMPLICATIONS FOR PHILIPPINE

EXTERNAL RELATIONS

Carolina G. Hernandez, PhD

Professor Emeritus

University of the Philippines


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Outline of the Presentation

Definition of Terms

Contemporary Regional Strategic Issues Implications for Philippine External Relations

Summary and Concluding Remarks


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Definition of Terms

Region

-physical/ geographic dimension

-intensity of interconnectedness/ interaction/transactions

Strategic

- Substance as in security, different dimensions,meanings, referent objects of security:external/internal security, comprehensive, common,

collaborative, cooperative security, traditional/non-traditional security, human security

-Timeframe as in long term


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Definition of Terms

External Relations

- National boundaries

- Domestic-foreign divide

- Increasing porosity of borders


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Contemporary Regional Strategic

Issues

Of recent origins and with military dimensions

Rise of regional powers (China and India) and

regional power shifts- Destabilizing effects of power shifts caused by rising anddeclining powers

- Implication for the regional distribution of power and

stability- Benign or malign powers?

- An Asian century?


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Issues

Nuclear proliferation and disarmament

- Nuclear deterrence during the Cold War

- Nuclear weapons proliferation: Non-ProliferationTreaty (NPT), Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT),nuclear weapons and non-nuclear weapons states,undeclared nuclear weapons states; nuclearambitions of North Korean and Iran; prospects for anuclear weapons convention?; nuclear zero?

disarmament: nuclear and conventional weapons;START II;

- Global terrorism and the risks of nuclearproliferation: UNSCR 1540


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Issues Maritime Security Issues

- Crimes at sea (piracy, illegal trafficking, dumping toxicwastes)

- Incidents in regional oceans (USNS Bowditch, USNS

Impeccable, intelligence gathering in the EEZs and territorialwaters, military exercises in nearby waters, etc.)

- Depletion of marine resources (fisheries, coral reefs, mineralresources in the subsoil and seabed of the continental shelfand ocean floor)

- Freedom of navigation and over flight in the high seas andthe EEZs


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Issues

Resurgence of territorial disputes on land and sea,including the South China Sea/ West Philippine Seadisputes

-The areas in dispute: Paracels and Spratly group of islands, orfeatures in the South China Sea, a semi-enclosed sea;

-The claimants: China, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia, thePhilippines, Vietnam

- Confidence building measures: Informal Workshop on the

South China Sea (1990s), joint activities including scientificexploration such as seismic exploration by the national oilcompanies of China, the Philippines and Vietnam that expiredin 2009, joint military exercises (?)


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Issues

Resurgence of territorial disputes on land and sea,including the South China Sea/ West Philippine Seadisputes (cont.)

-De-escalation of disputes in 1998-2010: Declaration on theConduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), 2002

- Resurgence of disputes in 2010

The disputes as distinct from the SCS/ WPS as Internationalwaterways

- The Guidelines on the DOC. July 2011: A case of too little,too late?

- A regional code of conduct in 2012?


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Issues

Alliance/defense transformation/arms races

- The firming of alliances: i.e., US- Philippines

- The forging of closer defense ties: i.e., US-Indonesia, US-Vietnam

- Defense transformation from internal to external focus: i.e.,the Philippines

- Military modernization before the 1997 Asian financial crisis

- The security dilemma and post 2008-2009 crisis arms races


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Issues

Non-military defense issues of long-standing

Resource scarcities: water, energy, food

- Water scarcity: uses of water, uneven distribution of water,water conflicts

- Energy security: depletion of oil and natural gas, search forrenewable energy resources, risks of the nuclear renaissance

- Food scarcity: land and water-based food sources, food andpopulation, risks to food security


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Issues

Global warming and climate change: implicationsfor natural disasters

- Global warming: alteration in the way humanity lives, sealevel rise

- Climate change: extreme changes in weather patterns andtheir temporal dimension

- Natural disasters: earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes,typhoons, storms, cyclones, etc.


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Issues

Transnational crime: illegal traffic in drugs, smallarms and light weapons (SALW), natural persons

- Trafficking in illegal drugs: the Philippines as source,transhipment and destination; health and social risks;

criminality elements; with implications for politicalperformance and stability;

Trafficking in SALWs: SALWs have killed more people thanWeapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs); multiple uses

(ordinary crimes, domestic violence, other transnationalcrime-use, domestic armed conflicts);

-Trafficking in natural persons especially women and children:Southeast Asia as source, trans-shipment, and destination;improved rating by US State Department;


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Implication for Philippine External

Relations

The Philippines and ASEAN

- ASEAN as a diverge grouping of ten (10) sovereign states

- Lack of common foreign and security policy

- ASEAN Community-building: ASEAN Economic Community,ASEAN Political Security Community, ASEAN Socio-CulturalCommunity

- ASEANs central role in regionalism

- ASEAN cohesion


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Relations

The Philippines and China

- Geo-economic dimension: economic integration with Chinawith rising trade, investments, etc., China-ASEAN Free TradeArea (CAFTA), impact of China on regional recovery from the

economic crisis of 2008-2009- Geo-political dimension: enhanced political/diplomaticrelations? regime differences/ gaps?, Beijing consensus?

- Geo-strategic dimension: strategic partner or strategic

competitor?, Philippine military ties to the United States?


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Relations

The Philippines and the United States

- Colonial ties

- Mutual Defence Pact: scope and limitation

- The West Philippine Sea: distinguishing the disputes fromthe waterways


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Summary and Concluding Remarks

Uncertainty and flexibility of the regional environment createsserious challenges for the Philippines, including as member ofASEAN.

Contemporary geo-strategic issues have serious implication of

countrys external relations. The Philippines as a small/medium-sized state has some

options, but each option has consequences that have to befaced squarely. Unlike great powers who do not what theycan, the Philippines has to do what it must.

We live in very interesting times indeed!

contemporary regional geostrategic issues

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