continental europe in turmoil where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/documents/boutique...euro...

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This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent and may not be reproduced, copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other person. This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent and may not be reproduced, copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other person. BCI Global Investment Conference This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent and may not be reproduced, copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other person. Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here? Wednesday, 7th June 2017

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Page 1: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent

and may not be reproduced, copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other person.

This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent

and may not be reproduced, copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other person.

BCI Global Investment Conference

This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent and may not be reproduced,

copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other person.

Continental Europe in turmoil –Where to from here?Wednesday, 7th June 2017

Page 2: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

2

European equities are cheap on normalised earnings metrics

European macro is very supportive of domestic earnings growth

Earnings growth is accelerating quickly and is world leading

Positioned in pro-cyclical sectors that will benefit from the pick up in economic growth and earnings

Long term value creation accrues to those with the best compounding of returns

Excellent compound value stocks across luxury, technology, capital goods and consumer

Banks as a group are much more fully valued than realised but some are interesting

Summary – reasons to be (very) bullish

Stock selection is key

Source: GAMThe views are those of the manager at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Page 3: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

European equities relative to global equities

Source: GAM, Bloomberg, 1987=100

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

3

European equities have dramatically underperformed the rest of the world

Page 4: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

4

Valuation and earnings

Europe Shiller P/E

Real price divided by 10-year average real EPS

Return on Equity of US and European markets

Source: : Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 15 Nov 83 to 5 May 17 Source: Morgan Stanley, MSCI Jan 75 to 5 May 17

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

X

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Average

+ 1 stdev

- 1 stdev

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

%

Europe ROE (%)USA ROE (%)

Page 5: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

5

1. Current accounts have moved from deficit to surplus

2. Austerity is coming to an end and a positive ‘fiscal impulse’ will support economic growth

3. Southern Europe has become more competitive

4. The European banking sector has been substantially re-capitalised

– A positive ‘credit impulse’ has been set off

– There is deep misunderstanding of deleveraging and debt dynamics

Four key structural points

Source: GAMThe views are those of the manager at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Page 6: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

6

Structural improvements are real

Current account balances

As a % of GDP

Primary Budget balance

As a % of GDP

Germany France Italy Portugal Greece Ireland Spain Finland

Unit labour costs

Q1 2000 = 100

Capital strengthening

European banks ‘leverage’ ratio

Source: Haver, Goldman Sachs, Citi European Strategy Team, Autonomous Research

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017E

Tangible equity to tangible assets

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

The views are those of the manager at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Page 7: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

Short-term macro - very positiveEuro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est.

Source: GAM 7

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

The views are those of the manager at the time of publication and are subject to change.

-3,0

-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

PMI GDP

% q

oq

Ind

ex le

ve

l

Page 8: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

Credit conditions suggest positive impulse

Euro area credit impulse and growth

Euro area credit numbers – A solid story

Source: Haver Analytics as at 5 Apr 2017.

The views are those of the manager at the time of publication and are subject to change.

New borrowing as a % of GDP

Supply of credit

-5

0

5

10

15

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017New borrowing as a % of GDP

Euro area% GDP

-10

-5

0

5

10

-10

-5

0

5

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017Credit impulse Private demand (rhs)

Euro area% yoy % yoy

-30

-10

10

30

50

-10

-5

0

5

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Credit impulse Credit supply

Euro area

Index level % qoq -40

-20

0

20

40

60-10

-5

0

5

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Credit impulse Credit conditions

Euro area

Index level % qoq

8

(lhs)

(lhs) (rhs)(lhs) (rhs)

The performance of past values and returns is no indicator of their current or future development.

Page 9: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

9

Medium-term:

Eurozone domestic demand recovery to drive domestic consumer and industrial cyclical stocks

Most positive on Spain and Ireland but France and Italy also improving

Long-term:

Long-term value creation accrues to those with the best compounding of returns

Structural growth from emerging market middle class to drive growth

Transfer of consumer spending from physical to on-line world to cause serious disruption

Disrupters and growth technology stocks offer excellent growth and returns

Reflation vs. deflation:

A red herring, as real GDP is what matters

Strong reason to believe inflation is overstated and real GDP under recorded

Short-term inflation in energy and commodities pass through only

Banks are more highly valued than realised, are not so geared to a recovery

Key investment themes

Source: GAMThe views are those of the manager at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Page 10: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

How we are positioned for ‘the earnings recovery’

10

Key sectors:

Building and construction materials

Consumer spending beneficiaries

Employment

Importance of “levels”: many areas of activity saw declines of 40-80% from peak.

Don’t underestimate the upside

Multi-year recovery

Importance of “operational gearing”

Survivors have reduced costs and become much leaner

Operational gearing from high drop through of revenues to profits will super-

charge earnings

Eurozone domestic demand recovery

Source: GAMThe views are those of the manager at the time of publication and are subject to change. Reference to a security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security.

Examples

Kingspan

Grafton Group

CRH

Cairn Homes

DIA

Ryanair

Caixabank

Mediaset Espana

AdeccoExposure to cyclical stocks in consumer and industrial

sectors with exposure to domestic Europe

Page 11: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

Kingspan Group PLC

Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Reference to a security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security.

Source: Bloomberg

World leader in rigid board insulation with

significant R&D and investment maintaining

technological leadership

Strong cyclical growth drivers from recoveries in

property and construction in the OECD

Strong structural growth drivers from need to

reduce buildings’ energy usage and carbon

footprint backed by strengthening legislation

Strong growth at high Return on

Capital

The views are those of the manager at the time of publication and are subject to change.11

Page 12: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

Kingspan growth vs construction macro

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Kingspan Macro

UK US

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Kingspan MacroGermany The Netherlands

90

110

130

150

170

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Kingspan Macro

70

90

110

130

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Kingspan Macro

12Source: Non-Residential Construction Stats Euroconstruct & Reed Data, Kingspan, 2016 Full Year results presentation

Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Reference to a security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security.

Page 13: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2016 2020P

13

Kingspan penetration growth

Source: Kingspan 2016 Full Year results presentation, Penetration as a % of the respective addressable markets

Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Reference to a security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2016 2020P

Insulated Panels

UK Germany

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2005 2016 2020P

North America

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2005 2016 2020P

UK

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2005 2016 2020P

Western Europe

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2005 2016 2020P

Australia

Insulated Boards

Page 14: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

14

A. Exposure to emerging market middle class consumption growth

Luxury

Beverages

Healthcare

Elevators

B. Disruptive technology and ‘growth’ technology

Autonomous vehicles

Measurement technology

Low cost carriers

C. Transition of consumer spending from physical to on-line

On-line retailers

Physical retailers with right business model

Long term value creation

Source: GAMThe views are those of the manager at the time of publication and are subject to change. Reference to a security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security.

Examples

LVMH

Richemont

Pernod Ricard

AB InBev

Fresenius

Schindler

Continental

Hexagon

Ryanair

Zalando

Inditex

Paddy Power

Long term value creation accrues to those with the best

compounding of returns

Page 15: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

15

Regional breakdown of European Equity revenues

Source: Redburn, forecast data from 5 Dec 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15f

20

16f

20

17f

Rest of World Asia ex Japan Other Americas USA and Canada Japan Europe

Page 16: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

Zalando SELargest European online apparel retailer

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.Reference to a security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security.

Source: Bloomberg

Largest purely online European retailer serving 18m

active customers and generating Eur 3bn in sales in

a European fashion market worth c.Eur 420bn

Strong barriers to entry driven by investment in

technology now reinforced by high proportion of

repeat customers as well as platform of choice for

brands seeking growth and pricing discipline

Attractive capital light model – potential to double

sales on existing warehousing and IT infrastructure

suggests strong operational leverage to growth

Turning retail on its head by putting technology and

big data at the heart of the customer proposition

The views are those of the manager at the time of publication and are subject to change.16

Page 17: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

APPENDIX

Page 18: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

GAM Continental European Equity Composite - GrossPerformance from 30 Nov 2009 to 30 Apr 2017

Source: GAM, MSCIPresented as supplemental information only. Please refer to the relevant GIPS compliant report and the GIPS supplemental text.

Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Performance is provided gross of fees.

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Page 19: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

Niall GallagherInvestment Director,

European Equities

Joined GAM in 2009, now with 21 years’ industry experience

Manages a number of Europe-focused equity funds with an emphasis on capital growth

Stocks selected on a fundamental, bottom-up approach

Runs a combined USD 1.8bn in assets

Page 20: Continental Europe in turmoil Where to from here?documents.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique...Euro area PMI v GDP - 31 Mar 2000 to 30 June 2017 est. Source: GAM 7 Past performance

Source: GAM, unless otherwise stated. (Where applicable and, unless otherwise noted, performance is shown net of fees, on a NAV to NAV basis).GAM has not independently verified the

information from other sources and no assurance can be given as to whether such information is accurate, true or complete and GAM makes no warranty, expressed or implied, regarding such

information. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, but GAM cannot be held responsible for any errors or omissions. While every effort has been made

to ensure the accuracy of the financial information herein, you should note that some of the information may be based on unaudited or otherwise unverified information.

This material is confidential and intended solely for the use of the person, persons or entities with nationality of or respectively with their residence, domicile or registered office in a State or

Country in which such distribution, publication, making available or use is contrary to laws or other regulations, and may not be reproduced, copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other

person. It is aimed at sophisticated, professional, eligible, institutional and/or qualified investors/ intermediaries appointed by GAM who have the knowledge and financial

sophistication to understand and bear the risks associated with the investments described.

Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice, nor is it to be solely relied on in making an investment or other decision. This document qualifies as marketing

material.

The views expressed herein are those of the manager at the time and are subject to change. The price of shares may go down as well as up and the price will depend on fluctuations in

financial markets outside GAM's control. As a result an investor may not get back the amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future performance and reference to a

security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Holdings and allocations are subject to change. Prices quoted refer to accumulation shares, unless otherwise stated. Historic

data may be subject to restatement from time to time.

This is not an invitation to invest in any GAM product or strategy. Investments should only be made after a thorough reading of the current prospectus, offering memorandum, the Key Investor

Information Document “KIID”, the articles of association and the current annual and semi-annual reports (the “legal documents”), as well as after consulting an independent finance and tax

specialist. The legal documents can be obtained in hard copy and free of charge from the addresses indicated below.

Some of the sub-funds may not be registered for sale in all jurisdictions. Therefore, no active marketing must be carried out for them. Subscriptions will only be received and shares or units

issued on the basis of the current fund prospectus.

Shares of the fund have not been registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) and the fund is not registered under the US Investment Company Act of

1940, as amended (the “Company Act”). Accordingly, unless an exemption is available, such shares may not be offered, sold or distributed in the United States or to US persons. However,

pursuant to an exemption from registration under the Securities Act and the Company Act, the shares may be sold or resold in the United States or to certain qualified US investors in

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This material/presentation may mention sub-funds of GAM Star Fund p.l.c., registered office at George’s Court, 54-62 Townsend Street, Dublin 2, Ireland, an umbrella investment company with

variable capital and segregated liability between the sub-funds, incorporated under the laws of Ireland and authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) as a UCITS Fund in accordance with

the Directive 2009/65/EC. Management Company is GAM Fund Management Limited, George’s Court, 54-62 Townsend Street, Dublin 2, Ireland.

UK: As far as UCITS described herein are recognised schemes under section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000: Copies of the legal documents can be obtained in English, free

of charge, from the Facilities Agent GAM Sterling Management Limited, 20 King Street, London SW1Y 6QY (authorised and regulated by the FCA) or on the internet at www.gam.com.

Investments in the funds are not protected by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme.

Within the UK, this material has been issued and approved by GAM London Ltd, 20 King Street, London SW1Y 6QY, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Disclaimer

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