Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution

Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling

Review of the Gothenburg Protocol

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE

What has changed?

New Eulerian dispersion model Ecosystem dependent deposition rates Sensitivity of ecosystems, ozone flux approach Health effects of particles and ozone Emission estimates New (national) projections, time horizon 2020 Effects of existing control options (cycle bypassing) Increased potential of cost-effective measures due

to linkages with climate policy, non-technical local measures and measures for ships

• Emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOC declined

• Current policy efforts are no-regret, but…• The Gothenburg Protocol is not sufficient to meet

the original ambitions regarding the long term protection of ecosystems and health

Preliminary conclusion TFIAM32

73

65 %

35

48

78

75

35

50

ecosystem specific dep.

Updated emissions & meteo variability

59296529grid average deposition

Unified Model & 2004 CLs

492356252004 critical loads

54256126 1998 critical loads

Lagrangian Model

EU25EuropeEU25Europe

2010 GP2000

Unprotected Ecosystem-area (nitrogen) - %

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

Factors changing ecosystem risk estimates

Goth Protocol Updated CL 50 * 50 km

Eulerian model Ecosyst. spec. dep.

Exceedance

of CLnut

in 2010

Trends in unprotected ecosystem area (%)

% 1990 1995 2000 2004 2010GP

Acidification

EU25 39 27 23 15 16

EMEP 41 19 15 10 11

Eutrophication

EU25 81 74 75 66 64

EMEP 66 54 50 47 48

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

GP knowledge: days with ozone above 60 ppb Problem for Northwestern & central Europe

1990

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

0.0

0.0

1.0

5.0

10.0

25.0

50.0

100.0

U nit: %

1990 2010

Current knowledge: SOMO35 [ppb.days] problem in Southern Europe

2000 2010 2020

Sum Of Mean Ozone values over 35 ppb in rural areas

Effect of hemispheric ozone increases the challenge

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

No increase Expected increase

Increasing importance of ship emissions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2010

IIASA

2020

IIASA

% s

hip

s e

mis

sio

ns

to

lan

d

ba

se

d e

mis

sio

ns

SO2

NO2

Contribution of SOx from shipping to deposition of S Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

Emission factors cars higher than expected

Artemis, diesel, NOx

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135

Average Speed [km/h]

[g/k

m]

Euro I

Euro II

Euro III

Euro IV

Emission factors cars higher than expected

Artemis, diesel, NOx

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135

Average Speed [km/h]

[g/k

m]

Euro I

Euro II

Euro III

Euro IV

ARE THERE

MORE

SCIENTIFIC CHANGES

IN PIPELINE?

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2 NOx

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2 NOx VOC

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2 NOx VOC PM2.5

With CLE emissions significantly decrease,

with the exception of NH3 and CO2 [EU25, Primes projection]

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2SO2 NOx VOCNH3 PM2.5

Remaining problem areas in 2020 Eutrophication remains wide scale problem

Forests – acid dep

Semi-natural – acid dep Freshwater – acid dep Health - PM

Health+vegetation - ozone Vegetation – N dep

2004 - Distance to Target NOx

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

Preliminary data !

To do list

Improve & update national emissions projections• Non EU-countries• What control measures are envisaged and when? (TFEIP)

Write TFIAM background document to the official review report

Same structure, including figures & 4 additional items: • Add para. on policy development in EU to TFIAM-document• Describe the quality of models used based on reviews• Explore new knowledge on damage to materials• Discuss costs and benefits of Gothenburg Protocol ?

Preparations for revision of the Protocol

Modelling particulate matter Local air pollution modelling (TFMM) Update MFR, including emerging technologies & non-

technical measures Inclusion of GHG abatement measures GAINS Options for target setting & robustness of strategies