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CONVENTIONAL AND UNCONVENTIONAL OIL AND GAS: RESOURCES AND INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD MARKET
Vladimir Vysotsky, VNIIZARUBEZHGEOLOGIA (JSC)
RESOURCES AND INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD MARKET
Источник: et al, 2012
More than 500 oil and gas basins with a total area of 118 million sq km have been recognized. HC fields have been discovered in 240 basins. The Northern hemisphere harbors 93% world oil and 94% world gas resources. Twelve major oil and gas basins account for 70% world oil and 60% world gas resources. Deepwater basins (> 500 m) account for 6.4% world oil and 6.0% world gas resources.
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World conventional and tight oil resources, billion tonsWorld conventional and tight oil resources, billion tons
Conventional oil* Tight oil**
Cumulativeproduction
Cumulativeproduction
Remaining reserves
Remaining reservesproduction productionreserves reserves
566 47
Неоткрытые ресурсы
Undiscovered resources Undiscovered resources
Initial Reserves/ ultimate resources ratio – 64%Cumulative production/ultimate resources ratio – 30%
Oil recovery factor – 30%
Initial Reserves/ ultimate resources ratio – 1.9%Cumulative production/ultimate resources ratio - <1%
Oil recovery factor – 5%(* estimated by VZG as of 1.1.2013 )
y(** estimated by IEA, 2013)
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TIGHT OILTIGHT OIL
CONVENTIONAL AND TIGHT OIL POTENTIALCONVENTIONAL AND TIGHT OIL POTENTIAL(remaining reserves and undiscovered resources)(remaining reserves and undiscovered resources)
CONVENTIONAL OILCONVENTIONAL OIL((countries with conventional oil potential >countries with conventional oil potential >5 5 billion tonsbillion tons))
TIGHT OILTIGHT OIL((countries with tight oil potential >countries with tight oil potential >1 1
billion tonsbillion tons))
10 211
billion tons
10,2
7,98
9
10
4,4
3,7 3 54
5
6
7
3,7 3,5
1,81,2 1,2 1,1
1
2
3
4
0
Rus
sia
US
Chi
na
Arge
ntin
a
Liby
a
Vene
zuel
a
Paki
stan
Can
ada
Indo
nesi
a
Thirteen countries account for Thirteen countries account for 81% 81% of world total oil potential of world total oil potential including 75% of its unexplored resourcesincluding 75% of its unexplored resources
((VNIIZarubezhgeologiaVNIIZarubezhgeologia, 2013), 2013)
Ten countries account forTen countries account for 78% 78% of world oil of world oil potential potential
((IEA, 2013)IEA, 2013)
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20002000--2012 2012 US TIGHT OILUS TIGHT OIL PRODUCTION HISTORYPRODUCTION HISTORY
10090
MMt/yr (K2)(D3-C1) 2012 – 94.3 MMt
(29 5% f US t t l il d ti )90
80
70
(P2)(P1)(N )play
s
(29.5% of US total oil production)
Shale Revolution-27060
50
(N1)(D3)
(K2)Tigh
t oil
p
403020
(P1)(K2)
20
10
Source: IEA, 03.2013
Projections: 2015 – 180 (45%), 2020 – 260 (59%), 2025 – 330 (69%), 2030 – 380 (72%)
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World conventional and shale gas resources, trillion m3
Conventional gas * Shale gas **
Cumulative Remaining Undiscovered Cumulative production
greservesresourcesproduction
207703
Undiscovered resourcesRemaining
reserves
Initial Reserves/ ultimate resources ratio, % - 2.4Cumulative production/ultimate resources ratio, % - 0.5
Gas recovery factor – 25%**
Initial Reserves/ ultimate resources ratio, % - 46.8Cumulative production/ultimate resources ratio, % - 17.6
Gas recovery factor – 80%* Estimated by VNIIZarubezhgeologia 2013 ** Estimated by IEA 2013 Estimated by VNIIZarubezhgeologia, 2013 Estimated by IEA, 2013
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CONVENTIONAL AND SHALE GAS POTENTIAL CONVENTIONAL AND SHALE GAS POTENTIAL ((remaining reserves and remaining reserves and undiscoveredundiscovered resourcesresources))
CONVENTIONAL GASCONVENTIONAL GAS((countries with conventional gas potential >countries with conventional gas potential >10 10 trillion mtrillion m33
SHALE GASSHALE GAS((countries with shale gas potential >countries with shale gas potential >5 5
trillion mtrillion m33))
Ten countries account for Ten countries account for 6262..55% % of world total gas potential,of world total gas potential,Including Including 7272..22% % of its unexplored resourcesof its unexplored resources
((VNIIZarubezhgeologiaVNIIZarubezhgeologia, , 20132013))
Ten countries account for Ten countries account for 7979..1% 1% of world total of world total shale gas potentialshale gas potential
((IEA, 2013)IEA, 2013)
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2000-2012 US SHALE GAS PRODUCTION HISTORY
290 Shale gas plays
2012 production – 250 billion m3
(37% of US total saleable gas production)Bm3/yr
240 (K2)
(D3-C1)
(D2)Other plays
190
140
(J3)
(D2)
(D3)Marcellus
90 (C2)
Shale Revolution -1(C3)
(D )
Haynesville
40(D3)
Barnett
Forecast: 2015 – 300 (43%); 2020 – 350 (46%); 2025 – 380 (46%); 2030 – 400 (45%)Source: IEA, 03.2013
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WORLD UNCONVENTIONAL (OTHER THAN TIGHT OIL ANDWORLD UNCONVENTIONAL (OTHER THAN TIGHT OIL ANDSHALE GAS) OIL AND GAS RESOURCESSHALE GAS) OIL AND GAS RESOURCES
OIL, billion tons GAS, trillion cubic meters*Gas in low-permeabilityCoal-Bed Heavy and Extra
Heavy Oil permeability reservoirs(Tight Gas)
MethaneHeavy Oil
Oil shale***Oil Sand
* VNIGRI, 1989 ** OGR, 6, 2012*** Oil Sh l D i f h W ld 1988
* As reported by VNIIGAZ-GAZPROM, 2012, 2013*** Oil Shale Deposits of the World, 1988
Gas Hydrates – 10 000 trillion m3 (VNIIGAZ – GAZPROM)
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WORLD OIL PRODUCTION FORECAST
5400Growth - 1,2%
Production, mln.t
4800
5000
5200
Total Oil Production(Conventional and Unconventional Oil)
1,0%
0,8%
4400
4600
4800
C ti l Oil P d ti
Growth - 1,2%
43.7
4000
4200
Conventional Oil Production 1,0%
0,8%
43.1
43.4
38002010 2015 2020 2025 2030
43.1 Cummulative production/ultimate resources ratio, %
Oil Production Growth: 1970-1990 p.a. – 1,9%; 1991-2010 p.a. – 1,4%Scenarios: 2011-2030 p.a.: 0,8% (BP), 1,0% (EIA), 1,2% (LUKOIL)
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OIL AND GAS FIELDS DISCOVERED INOIL AND GAS FIELDS DISCOVERED IN 20122012
Country Basin Field name Sea depth,Reserves
Oil Gas
Number of discoveries and field sizes Largest oil and gas discoveries
yname
p ,m Oil,
MMtGas, Bm3
Angola Kwanza Cameia 1675 205 42.0
Mozambique Ruvuma Golfinho 1027 - 524.0
Mozambique Ruvuma Coral 2260 - 226.0
Mozambique Ruvuma Atum 1000 - 184.
Mozambique Ruvuma Mamba NE 1848 - 1700
Mozambique Ruvuma Mamba NE-2 1994 - 184.0
Mozambique Ruvuma Mamba North 1690 - 142.0
Brazil Santos Carcara 2027 109.6 8.0
Brazil Campos Pão de Açúcar 2788 67.2 41.8
Tanzania Ruvuma Zafarani 2580 - 113.2
* Forty-nine fields with average field sizes of 1.5-2.5 MMtoe have been discovered in Russia(according to N.Miletenko, 2013)
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North American Tight Oil Plays
D
*
D-C
*
*
K2
*
*
*
*
SpraberryN1
* M i P d ti
*K2
*
P1
* Main ProductionTight Oil Plays
Source: EIA, 2012
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US OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION FORECASTUS OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION FORECASTO I L
Variable 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030Variable 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total production, MMt 395 400 440 480 525
of that, tight oil 94 180 260 330 380
Net imports, MMt 421 350 280 210 130
Consumption, MMt 794 750 720 690 655
2012 net imports – 421 MMt (9.9% of world total production).Chief suppliers – Canada (117 MMt), Saudi Arabia (69 MMt),
Consumption, MMt 794 750 720 690 655
tight oil % in total production 23.8 45 59.1 68.75 72.4
tight oil % in consumption 11.8 24 36.1 47.8 58
Chief suppliers Canada (117 MMt), Saudi Arabia (69 MMt), Venezuela (45 MMt), Mexico (49 MMt).After 2025 – imports from Canada only (2030 – 130 MMt).Decrease in imports from 2012 to 2030 – 291 MMtG A S
Variable 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
Marketable production, billion m3 681 695 755 820 890
of that, Shale gas 250 300 350 380 400
Net imports, billion m3 43 30 0
Net exports, billion m3 0 35 75
2012 net imports – 43 billion m3.
Consumption, billion m3 724 725 755 785 815
Shale gas % in total production 36.71 43.17 46.36 46.34 44.94
Shale gas % in consumption 34.53 41.38 46.36 48.41 49.08
of that, shale gas
pChief supplier – Canada (net exports - 41 billion m3).By 2020 – the country becomes a net exporter.By 2025 – export potential is 35 billion m3, By 2030 – 75 billion m3.
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CANADA. BASINS AND FIELDS
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FORECAST OF OIL PRODUCTION IN CANADA AND VENEZUELAFORECAST OF OIL PRODUCTION IN CANADA AND VENEZUELA
CANADAVariable 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total production, MMt 183 171 230 275 305
of that, from oil sands 85 115 160 210 250
Consumption, MMt 107 101 120 140 160
Total 2012 oil production was 183 MMt, of that 85 MMt from oil sands; 2030 oil
Net oil exports, MMt 62 70 110 135 145
Oil from oil sands production as a percentage of total oil production, % 46.5 67.25 69.57 76.36 81.97
production forecast is 305 MMt and 250 MMt, respectively.Net exports during 2020-2030 are estimated at 110-145 MMt/yr.
VENEZUELA
Variable 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total production, MMt 161 180 310 320 330
of that, extra heavy oil 30 130 160 180 200
Consumption, MMt 40 50 52 60 70
Total 2012 oil production was 161 MMt including 30 MMt extra heavy oil; 2030
p ,
Net oil exports, MMt 86 130 258 260 260
Extra heavy oil production as a percentage of total oil production, % 18.63 72.2 51.6 56.25 60.6
Total 2012 oil production was 161 MMt including 30 MMt extra heavy oil; 2030 oil production forecast is 330 MMt and 200 MMt, respectively.Net exports during 2020-2030 are estimated at 260 MMt/yr
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VENEZUELA. ORINOCO BASIN
Resources – 81.6 bln.tReserves – 33.9 bln.t
Production:2012 – 30 mln.t
2030 200 mln t2030 – 200 mln.t
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BRAZIL. BASINS AND FIELDS
ESPIRITOSANTO BASIN
CAMPOS BASIN
BRAZILResources – 9830 mln.tReserves – 2210 mln.t
Production, mln.t:2012 – 139 (Export 13.4)
SANTOS BASIN
2020 – 2102030 – 300
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BRASIL. Santos Basin
STRUCTURE OF ATLANTIC MARGINS OF SOUTH AMERICA AND AFRICA
ANGOLA. Kwanza Basin
A t l a n t i c O c e a n
B t Rift d Oil d G C b t O i d S lt R kBasement(continent/ocean)
Rift sandy-argillaceous Sediments
Oil and GasSource Rocks
CarbonateRocks
Organic andCarbonate Structures
Salt Rocks
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ANGOLA. OIL FIELDS AND LICENCE BLOCKSANGOLA. OIL FIELDS AND LICENCE BLOCKS
Cameia OilField (2012)
Reserves – 205 mln.t
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IRAQ. DENSITIES OF HYDROCARBON RESOURCES MAPIRAQ. DENSITIES OF HYDROCARBON RESOURCES MAP
MAIN OIL FIELDSMAIN OIL FIELDS
Map № Name
Estimated Peak
Production mln.t
Principal Companies
MAIN OIL FIELDSMAIN OIL FIELDS
1 West Qurna 203 Lukoil
2 North Rumaila
140BP
1403 Rumaila PetroChina
4 Magnoon 89 Shell
5 Zubair 50 ENI
6 Halfaya 26 CNPC
Resources – 33,5 bln.tReserves – 20,1 bln.t
Production, mln.t,2012 – 152,4 (export – 120)
2020 – 4752030 - 500
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EAST AFRICA. BASINS AND FIELDS
UGANDAResources – 2.0 bln.tReserves – 490 mln.t
Production:2017 year 10 mln t2017 year - 10 mln.t
TANZANIA
MOZAMBIQUEResources – 4.2-5.2 trl.m3
Reserves – 127 bln.m3
Export LNG:2020 year-20 mln.t
TANZANIAResources – 2.0 trl.m3
Reserves – 34 bln.m3
Export LNG:2018 year - 6.6 mln.t
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L E V A N T B A S I N
Resources: Gas - 3450 bln. m3Oil – 230 mln. t
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TURKMENISTAN. AMU DARYA BASIN
Minara
YashlarEloten Osman South
Galkynysh gas field(Reserves 21-26 trln. m3)
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CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONSHydrocarbon production from unconventional sources in volumes sufficient for the essential redistribution of world export–import
flows is only possible in countries with extremely large unconventional hydrocarbon resources and with, mature oil and gas sector (large rig fleet) and favorable natural conditions (large freshwater resources).sector (large rig fleet) and favorable natural conditions (large freshwater resources).
These requirements are met in the US, China, and Russia.US (shale gas resources – 18.8 trillion m3, tight oil resources – 7.9 billion tons; rig fleet – >1800 rigs.)
Gas production growth rate suggests that domestic consumption will be satisfied and gas exports may start by 2020. Export potential is estimated at 35 billion m3 by 2025 and 75 billion m3 by 2030is estimated at 35 billion m3 by 2025 and 75 billion m3, by 2030.
Tight oil production will grow up to 380 MMt by 2030 and provide a possibility to reduce oil imports from 421 MMt in 2012 to 130 MMt in 2030. Oil can be supplied from Canada, whose export potential by 2030 is estimated at 145 MMt.
China (shale gas resources – 26-31 trillion m3, tight oil resources – 4.4 billion tons, rig fleet – 1500 rigs.)N ti l h l d l t i h l d ti t 80 billi 3 (23% f th t ’ t t lNational shale gas resource development program envisages shale gas production at 80 billion m3 (23% of the country’s total gas
production) in 2020 and 150 billion m3 (27.3%), in 2030. Based on field development scenarios prepared by international agencies and ВР, 2030 shale gas production in China is estimated at 60-90 billion m3. In all probability, the country’s import requirements by 2030 will be ranging from 100–200 billion m3.
Russia (shale gas resources 8 0 9 5 trillion m3Russia (shale gas resources – 8.0-9.5 trillion m3,tight oil resources – 10.2 billion tons, rig fleet – about 800 rigs.)
Shale gas production is not planned because of the high conventional gas reserves to production ratio. Tight oil production from the Bazhenovskaya Formation is anticipated at 15–20 MMt by 2020 and 70 MMt, by 2030. Total oil production in 2030 is anticipated at 540-550 MMt (ВР Forecast, 2013.)
Venezuela is likely to become world’s largest oil exporter mostly due to the development of extra heavy oil resources and supply about 260 MMt /yr oil to the market starting from 2020. By then, a significant increase in conventional oil production and exports, accordingly, is anticipated from Brazil and Iraq and conventional gas production and exports from Australia, Qatar and new participants (Mozambique, Tanzania). Excessive hydrocarbon supplies are highly probable on the European and, especially, Asia–Pacific markets. p , p y,
Increased competition may reduce oil and, especially, gas prices. In all probability, oil prices may drop down to US$90/bbl, and spot gas prices, down to US$300/1000 m3. At the same time, oil prices are hardly likely to drop down below US$80/bbl, because many nonconventional oil production projects will become uneconomic in this case.