cool facts - acadeuro-bergen.no · → re-education and language regulation starting in...
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Universität zu Köln
Cool Facts
for a hot Debate
- A Wake-up Talk -
Christoph Buchal
Forschungszentrum Jülich und Universität zu Köln
( Lecture and Books: ENERGY, CLIMATE, ELECTRICTY, MOBILITY … + )
EPS Rome, 24.9.2015
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A Look at the Heart of Democracy
In the long run counts
what most people fear, think, hope, ���
say and vote for.
Of very limited influence is
what scientists advise.
This fact will more than anything else determine
the future of energy technologies in Europe.
(10 years of talks and nearly 400 000 books did not reach the politicians)
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Blaise Pascal (1623- 1662): Uncertainty and Religion
We do not know the facts
about Religion and God , ���
but we can carefully ���
try a path of Ethics.
Today: ���Climate Change became „Religion“ and „worth a Cruisade“
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We are stuck in a Puzzle of Uncertainties …
Climate Change … y
Natural … y Human … y
Are there realistic measures … ?
Consequences: bad or good ?
Relative Global Importance ?
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Universität zu Köln
True
1. Human Contribution to CO2 in the Atmosphere
2. Green House Physics
Open
1. Temperature Predictions
2. Consequences for farming, living, sea level
3. Food, Energy & Peace for 10 x 109 people
4. Public Opinion
5. Realistic action
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The wisdom of the „Frogs“ against the „Iron Dogma“
Weather: unpredictable, 10 days rule
Physics of chaos
Solution: 30 years average
„Climate Periods“
are stable enough for modelling
„Is this DOGMA liberating us from
the power of chaos and nonlinear physics?“
NO! Look at last 500 years of climate history
(20.Century had a super-friendly climate in Europe)
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Jetstream, Meander, up to 300 km/h, 10-15 km high
• Auch „Chaos“ bestimmt über das Wetter (und das Klima) !
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Jet creates the Highs and Lows
• Einfach: thermisches Tief - hier aber Dynamisches Tief
„Dynamic Pressure Systems, Highs and Lows“
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Can Climate Science avoid permanent Chaos ?
Climate: 30 years average for
Temp, Wind, Rain, …
Summer(7°) Winter(14°) vs. Full Year(5°)
Region
Global
These data sets show very different trends
More actors: sun, El Nino, NAO, volcanoes
and more chaos ?
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Additional Concept
• Note: The early hypothesis of the bistable earth
Nonlinear physics shows up again: Slow Trends, interrupted by Climate Tipping Points First consequence:
Predictions become unstable Second consequence: Most climate researchers become really afraid and
would like to stop any change Third consequence: Media hype, confused voters and politicians under pressure
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0,6°C/100m
trocken: 1 °C/100 m
Falls Ozeantemp. um 1 °C steigt →Verdunstung steigt um 7% (11°C → 100%, Verdoppelung)
Wolken kühlen … oder wärmen…
Regen ist gut für …. Nordafrika, M.East, Antarctica + Überschwemmungen sind unerwünscht…
Clouds + Wind are a real problem for modelling
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Bottom Line:
Please do not trust climate predictions
I have followed the never ending litany:
„We need more computing power…“
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Universität zu Köln
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Universität zu Köln
Since the Era of Dinosaurs the global temperatures were dropping !
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Universität zu Köln
The Earth keeps going thru very unstable climate conditions …
Super- Chaos- Climate
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Universität zu Köln
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Universität zu Köln
I went thru
two Ice Ages
(160 000 years)
Australian Men: 3 Mio Jahre Homo Erectus: 1 Mio Jahre
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Universität zu Köln
Oceans, Currents, CO2, Jetstream,… ��� Cicken - Egg – Problem, Instabilities, Tipping points, …
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Universität zu Köln Erdoberfläche im Mittel 15 °C warm (Unser Mond: - 18°C)
SKIN - Temp.: -18°C = 255 K
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Universität zu Köln
Slope unchanged only 2 ppm / year
July 2015: 401,30 ppm
D: 2,5% → global attractive ? or rich man´s sports ?
Thanks to the oceans ! (Tragedy: Riding the tiger)
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MPI Meteorologie Hamburg: + 2° ab 1960
Analyse 2015: 10 Gt C/y linear sinkend auf 0 Gt C in 2100 (85 Jahre) verbleibende maximale Menge: 425 Gt C SRU: nur noch 210 Gt
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KLIMA S. 163: Die fossilen Vorräte
Gt C Milliarden Tonnen Kohlenstoff
Verbraucht
-------------
Noch in der Erde
Für „2-Grad“ erlaubte Restmenge: 200 – 400 Gt modellabhängig
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The future policy - as seen by our officials
SRU: The Official Scientific Advising Committee of the German Government recommends
80% of all accessible coal must remain in the ground
50% of all oil
50% of all natural gas
(Greenpeace: 100% R.E. until 2050 realistic + possible !)
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Welt-Emissionen: ca. 36 Gt = 36 000 Mio t CO2equiv. Jährl. Zunahme: 800 Deutschland: 912 Mio. t = 2,5% der glob. Emiss.
„Fehlbetrag“: 160 Mio t - das ist in etwa der Beitrag der Braunkohle
Ziel: - 40% von 1.248
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GROWTH of global CO2-Emiss: 10 000 Mio t in 12 years = 800 Mio t per year (2%/y) German National Total: 900
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Universität zu Köln
Tr Tropen:T > +25 °CAntarktis:T < - 30 °C
Klimawandel: global ca. + 0,7 - 0,8 °C
Wo ist dasbesonders spürbar?Gewinner undVerlierer !
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Der Mensch ist nur ein Akteur bei vielfältigen Prozessen
Interne Prozesse: Zirkulation (Atmosphäre, Ozean, …), Wechselwirkungen Externe Prozesse/Einflüsse: z.B. Sonne, Vulkane, Mensch
Cubasch/Kasang, 2010
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Universität zu Köln
2015:
7,4 Milliarden
Feeding already more than 6,5 Billion people well
R&D of Fertilizer, Crop Science, Genetic Engineering (D.: No!)
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Universität zu Köln
2100:
> 11 Billion
Africa: 1 → 5.1
Asia: ~ 5
Eur + N.America: < 1
R&D of fertilizer, crop science, genetic engineering, ENERGY
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Die letzten 10 000 Jahre
Dombau in Warmperiode
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Flächenbedarf dafür: 2000 x 2 km²= 4000 km²= 100 km x 40 km
Jülich - Bitburg - Rhein
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Expect enormous fluctuations of wind and solar power Too much: Electrolysis … Hydrogen … Fuels too little: FOSSILE FUELS !
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All German Storage ~ 40 GWh = 10% for 5 h
There is no seasonal storage in sight, not at all.
Count on hydrogen.
Use hydrogen smart !
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Druckbetankung mit 700 bar (70 MPa)
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Universität zu Köln
Wird das Klima extremer?
Dresden Aug. 2002 Düsseldorf, Aug. 2003
New Orleans, Aug. 2005 Febr. 2003
Motten (Rhön), Okt. 2005
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More and more expensive desasters:
Ä More peopleÄ Higher standards of livingÄ Megacities with expensive InfrastructureÄ Building in dangerous areasÄ Sensitive, expensive technologyÄ More insurances boughtÄ Climate Change ???
© 1999 GeoRisikoForschung, Münchener Rück
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1926 2000 Florida aus dem All
Sources:http://www.awesomeflorida.com/history.htm���(http://www.esig.ucar.edu/rp_senate) - Wendler Collection; Roger Pielke ���http:\\www. worldweb.com; http://www.napa.ufl.edu/98news/bioland.htmhttp://www.bettertransportation.org/Issues/1999/additional_funding.htm
Einwohner1920: ca. 100.000���1950: ca. 3.000.000���2000: ca. 15.000.000���2025: ca. 25.000.000
Touristen1920: -1970: ca. 5.000.000 1999: ca. 45.000.000 2010: ca. 65.000.000
Florida: Bevölkerungstrends
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Sommerhäuser am Atlantik
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Uncertainty and Climate Change
We all want to be good –
but
We do not know the facts
about the future of climate, ���
so we only should ���
try a path of Ethics.
Is Climate Change really asking for a „radical Cruisade“ or are we Germans victims of (national) hysteria ?
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Errors
Bio- Fuel and Bio – Electric Power
Feeding German cows &pigs with „rain forest“ soja
Running German cars with „Sustainable Palmoil“
Heating German houses with wood pellets from rain forest (Enviva)
Grand scale cheating with emission certificates (Atmosfair)
German general condemnation of nuclear power
of coal power plants
of genetic engineering
General inabilty to follow quantitative arguments���
General „NIMBY“ to power lines, wind turbines etc.
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Universität zu Köln
1. Reconsider the Basics, … R & D … 2. Conserve Energy and resources, where useful
3. The real global challenge:
Food, Energy, Health and Peace for 10 x109 people
Germany: Green Lobby successfully seized Media & Politics
→ Re-education and language regulation
starting in Kindergarten
→ Industry already adapted the moralization of markets
→ expensive, frequently useless „climate laws/projects“
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THINK ! Please do not jump on the „Angry Climate Bandwagon!“
…and carely recheck the mighty lobbies!