COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE

www.clim-atic.orgwww.clim-atic.orgA Project part-financed by the European Union and the

European Regional Development Fund

Clive BowmanClim-ATIC project

coordinator

UHI Science Day Pickaquoy Centre, Kirkwall, Friday 5th September 2008

www.live-the-solution.com

Causes of climate change

* IPCC 2007 “It is very likely that greenhouse gas forcing has been the dominant cause of the * IPCC 2007 “It is very likely that greenhouse gas forcing has been the dominant cause of the observed warming of globally averaged temperatures in the last 50 years”observed warming of globally averaged temperatures in the last 50 years”

*

Fossil fuels used in transport

Domestic activities

Industry and manufacturing

Land management

Land use change Land use change and Forestry and Forestry emissions 8%emissions 8%

Energy 37%Energy 37%

Public Public 2%2%

Residential 11%Residential 11%

Agricultural Agricultural 12%12%

Business 12%Business 12%Transport 17%Transport 17%

Scottish Green House Gas Emissions

Contribution of each sector to Scottish GHG Emissions of GHGs in 2003Scotland Rural Development Programme 2007 - 2013: Strategic Environmental Assessment - Environmental Report

Waste 1%Waste 1%

“Climate change is evident in Scotland from observed trends in temperature, rainfall and snow cover.”

“Much of the change in climate over the next 30 to 40 years is already determined by past and present emissions, so it is important that Scotland prepares itself for the inevitable impacts.”

SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006

Its already happening!

And its going to get worse!

average spring, summer and winter temperatures have risen by more than 1°C since 1961

Change in mean temperature (°C) based on a linear trend, 1961–2004SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006

UK top 10 warmest years

Year

(°C) Difference from average with respect to 1971-2000

1998 +0.52

2005 +0.48

2003 +0.46

2002 +0.46

2004 +0.43

2006 +0.42

2007 (Jan-Nov) +0.41

2001 +0.40

1997 +0.36

1995 +0.28

Source: Met Office Hadley Centre and UEA Climatic Research Unit 2007 2007

Change in precipitation (%) based on a linear trend, 1961–2004C5SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006

Scotland has become much wetter since 1961 with:• an increase in average winter precipitation of almost 60% in the north and west;• an increase in average annual precipitation of 20% for the whole country.

Some parts of north-west Scotland have become up to 45% drier in summer

Changes in winter river flows at selected locationsSEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006

high winter flow frequencieson western source rivers have increasedover the past two decades

Profile A1 A2 B1 B2

Population growth

low high low medium

GDP growth very high medium high medium

Energy use very high high low medium

Land- use changes

low medium/high high medium

Resource availability

medium low low medium

Pace of technological change

rapid slow medium medium

Change favouring

F fossil

T non fossil

B balanced

regional efficiency & dematerialization

“dynamics as usual”

Summary characteristics of the 4 IPCC storylines

A2 B1 B2

The IS92a scenario used by the IPCC is the business as usual scenario

CO2 EMISSION PROFILES under IPCC scenarios

Global mean annual temperature changes relative to 1980 – 1999 (ºC) for IPCC scenarios

5.85.85.25.2

www.live-the-solution.com

Vegetation of the Arctic: current conditions and projected changes under the IS92a scenario for 2090-2100

Aspect Implications

Water resource

More frequent and severe river flooding, affecting 77,000 properties

Increased likelihood of summer droughts leading to river water quality problems and disruption of water supply

Biodiversity Changes in abundance and distribution of species and length of growing season

Higher temperatures less favourable for native species

High intensity rainfall causing destruction to river habitat & Increased erosion and siltation with consequences for fish spawning

Disruption to food chain with potential catastrophic loss of species (e.g. island breeding sea bird populations)

Marine Higher sea level, increased wave height leading to coastal erosion and loss of habitat & more frequent and coastal flooding affecting 93,000 properties

Loss of traditional commercial fishery

Land surface Drying out of soils combined with higher intensity storm events causing landslides, with potential disruption of transport links

Accelerated decomposition of peaty soils resulting in increased emissions of carbon dioxide and methane, fuelling further climate change

Increased soil loss through water and wind erosion

Changes to agricultural practice and crops (e.g. longer growing season)

Human health Increased flood-related stress, illness and economic costs

Increased respiratory illness and heat-related distress

Fewer cold-related deaths

Water quality Periods of reduced river flow providing less dilution for discharges with increased sewage treatment costs

Increased treatment costs to provide water supplies

Increased run-off impacting on bathing water quality

Air quality Local and regional ozone air quality goals probably more difficult to achieve in the future

An increase in summertime photochemical smog, linked to increasing temperatures and small reductions in cloud cover

Likely that the frequency of wintertime air quality pollution events will reduce

Weather The weather will become more erratic and therefore less predictable, with a greater likelihood of extreme events.

Table of climate change impacts for Scotland taken from SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006

www.live-the-solution.com

Communities are on the front line!

How can they adapt?

The Clim-ATIC project2.35 Million Euro

Understanding climate change adaptation at a

community level for northern regions

European Regional Development Fund’s Northern Periphery Programme 2007 - 2013.

www.clim-atic.orgwww.clim-atic.orgA Project part-financed by the European Union and

the European Regional Development Fund

5 participating regions in Clim-ATIC

Glen Urquhart and the Cairngorms National Park

Flora, Sogn og Fjordane

County of Vasterbotten, and Åre

Rovaniemi, Kittilä and Kolari, Lapland

UummannaqUummannaq

IllulissatIllulissat

SisimiutSisimiut

IcelandIceland

Faroe IslandsFaroe Islands

Adaptation to Climate change impactsanticipatory or reactive?

The earlier we start adapting, the better equipped we will be to cope with higher temperatures, increased rainfall and the other potential changes.

Adapting to climate change is a process. It needs to be built in to our normal planning and risk management processes, whether in business, government or community.

Having the ability to adapt is called ‘adaptive capacity’ and this is increased through:

1. knowledge2. experience 3. resources

Diagram adapted from Finland’s National Adaptation Strategy (2005)

Socio-economic development

Changes in natural systems

Climate Change

Impacts

Advantages Disadvantages

Adaptive capacity

Opportunities Threats

Mitigation Adaptation

Decision making

Build community capacity through knowledge with communities

Rovaniemi Ilulissat Ilulissat Cairngorms National

Park

Flora Sogn og Fjordane

Lycksele Glen Urquhart

Culture and

traditions

Flooding

Tourism

Snow

activities

Fishing

Tourism

Sustainable

transport

Sustainable

energy

managemen

t

Natural

heritage

Land use

managemen

t

Agriculture

Tourism

Biodiversity

Risk

managemen

t

Sea level

rise

Health

Energy

managemen

t

Business

developmen

t

County Plan

for Climate

and Energy

Tourism

Reindeer

herding

Forestry

Agriculture

Transportati

on

Energy

systems

Snow cover

Flooding

Land use

managemen

t

Sustainable

flood risk

managemen

t

Agriculture

New

developmen

t

Tourism

Currentclimate

CommunityVulnerability

Scenarios

Currentsociety

Futureclimatechange

scenarios

Futuresocial

change scenarios

climate models and data + socio-economic data + local knowledge

Knowledge sources

Climate change impact visualisations

Community / stakeholder brainstorming meetings

Community adaptationaction plans

Knowledge communication and use

Building adaptation knowledge with communities

11 to 18 year olds in the Cairngorms National Park

Forest owners in Sweden

Tourism operators in Rovaniemi, Finland

Landowners and farmers in Glen Urquhart

Ski area businesses in Åre, Sweden

Building community capacity through experience

sustainable transport

tourism opportunities

sustainable energy management

risk management and response

Finland New tourism opportunities

GIS flood mapping for development planning

Greenland Dog sledging on thin ice!

Climate change tourism and sustainable huts

Fish waste to Bio-gas

Norway Impacts on energy supply infrastructure

Land slides and public warning system

Scotland Trial of EV for community use

Tourism opportunities and ski area adaptation

Wood fuel cooperative – local business and suppliers

River restoration project - sustainable flood management

Sweden Winter tourism and sustainable transport project - partnership of ski industry and LA

Woodland owners management plans

Dog sledge adaptations in Greenland

Adaptation demonstration projects

Mapping the tourism products of Northern Finland

Fish waste to Bio-gas in Greenland

Climate change tourism and sustainable accommodation huts in Greenland in Greenland

Risk and response management in Norway

Tourism destination management in Scotland

GIS-based flood hazard maps - Rovaniemi, Finland

River restoration river Enrick, Glen Urquhart

Trial of EV for community use

The Clim-ATIC project

www.clim-atic.org

www.clim-atic.orgwww.clim-atic.orgA Project part-financed by the European Union and the

European Regional Development Fund