coping with crisis and complexity. a complexity science-informed approach to crisis management

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  • 7/29/2019 Coping With Crisis and Complexity. A complexity science-informed approach to crisis management

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    Fnpiag witc Frisis bae Fnmpdlxity

    B fnmpdlxity sfilafl-ia`nrmle bpprnbfc tn frisis mbabglmlat

    Duelsfclr$ Bderif @!

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    Fnpiag witc Frisis bae Fnmpdlxity Bkstrbft

    Bkstrbft

    Ucl fnmpdlx systlm bpprnbfc$ wcifc iavndvls slliag iatlrfnaalftinas bae rldbtinascips$

    pdbys ba iafrlbsiag rndl ia mnst sfilati`if eisfipdials bae cbs rlpdbfle tcl prlvinus

    prlsfriptivl$ mlfcbaistif bpprnbfc n` elfnastruftiag b systlm iatn its fnmpnalats tnuaelrstbae tcl wcndl! Cnwlvlr$ n`tla frisis mbabglmlat systlms ia nrgbaisbtinas brl ant

    kuidt ia bffnrebafl witc tclsl priafipdls bae prnviel tcl iddusina n` fnatrnd n` fnmpdlx

    situbtinas tcrnugc eltbidle iastruftinas! Ucis tclsis `irst ielati`ils frisis-rldlvbat priafipdls

    `rnm fnmpdlxity sfilafl bae elsfrikls tclir impdifbtinas `nr frisis mbabglmlat tlbms!

    Kbsle na tclsl priafipdls$ altwnrjs bae altwnrj klcbvinurs uaelr frisis brl usle bs b

    mneld `nr sufflss`ud frisis mbabglmlat: tcl jly fcbrbftlristifs n` sufc altwnrjs brl

    elsfrikle bae tclir bppdifbtina `nr nrgbaisbtinabd frisis mbabglmlat is nutdiale! Ky lxpdnriag

    tcrll tclnrltifbd mnelds `nr fnpiag witc fnmpdlxity$ tcl tclsis tcla prnflles tn n``lr bsimpdl$ ylt prbftifbd$ mneld labkdiag nrgbaisbtinas tn batifipbtl pnssikdl impbft$ bksnrk tcl

    fnmpdlxity n` tcl lavirnamlat tcrnugc belqubtl mneudbtina n` its nwa fnmpdlxity$ bae bebpt

    tn tcl `bst-fcbagiag situbtina tcrnugc iatlddiglat sigabd eltlftina bae iatlrprltbtina!

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    Fnpiag witc Frisis bae Fnmpdlxity Jly tlrms

    Jly tlrms

    bscky spbfl

    knuaele rbtinabdity

    fnmpdlx bebptivl systlms

    fnmpdlxity

    fnmpdlxity sfilafl

    frlbtivl ldlmlats

    frisis

    frisis fudturl

    frisis mbabglmlat

    legl n` fcbns

    lmlrglafl

    cluristifs

    altwnrj tnpndngy

    altwnrjs

    ana-dialbrity

    risj iatlddiglafl

    sfbdlbkidity

    sld`-nrgbaisbtina

    sld`-nrgbaisle fritifbdity

    uaflrtbiaty

    uaprleiftbkidity

    wlbj diajs

    wlbj sigabds

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    Fnpiag witc Frisis bae Fnmpdlxity Ubkdl n` Fnatlats

    5

    UBKDL N@ FNAULAUV

    Iatrneuftina !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2Issuls bae furrlat stbtl n` janwdlegl !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2[ldlvbafl bae iaanvbtivl fcbrbftlr n` tcis tclsis !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ;Nkhlftivls `nr tcis tclsis !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 6Mltcnendngy bae strufturl n` tcl tclsis!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Fnpiag witc Frisis bae Fnmpdlxity Ubkdl n` Fnatlats

    Wcbt ei``lrlatibtls tcl fnmpdlx `rnm tcl fnmpdifbtle ia its rnnts brl ant hust nkslrvbkdl

    fcbrbftlristifs dijl lmlrglafl bae ana-dialbrity #wcifc widd kl lxpdnrle ia tcl `nddnwiag

    fcbptlrs): tcl mbia strufturbd ei``lrlafl dils ia tcl impnrtbafl n` tcl fnaalftinas bae tcl

    rldbtinas kltwlla tcl iatlrbftiag$ bae iatlrelplaelat bglats n` tcl systlm! Fnmpdlx systlms

    brl udd n` iatlrelplaelafils!06

    2!6!2! Fnmpdlx Bebptivl Vystlms

    Hnca Cnddbae$ b pinallr ia tcl `ilde n` fnmpdlxity rlfngaisle lbrdy tcbt8

    Ucl mlfcbaisms tcbt mleibtl tclsl systlms brl mufc mnrl bdijl tcba sur`bflnkslrvbtinas wnude sugglst! Uclsl mlfcbaisms bae tcl ellplr simidbritils brl impnrtbatlanugc tcbt tcl systlms brl anw grnuple uaelr b fnmmna abml

    05

    bae fniale tcl tlrm Fnmpdlx Bebptivl Vystlm #FBV)! Cnddbae summbrisls tcl eistiaft jly

    `lbturls n` FBV bae eltlrmiale tcbt8

    Uclsl systlms fcbagl bae rlnrgbaisl tclir fnmpnalat pbrts tn bebpt tclmsldvls tn tclprnkdlms pnsle ky tclir surrnuaeiags! Ucis is tcl mbia rlbsna tcl systlms brl ei``ifudt tnuaelrstbae bae fnatrnd8 tcly fnastitutl b mnviag tbrglt!0

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    Fnpiag witc Frisis bae Fnmpdlxity 2 Nrgbaisbtinas$ Frisis$ bae Fnmpdlxity

    _bgl | ;2

    Mnrl tcba `nrty ylbrs dbtlr$ Mlrbdi lt bd! el`ial FBV bs8

    Vystlms tcbt bebpt bae lvndvl ia tcl prnflss n` iatlrbftiag witc eyabmif lavirnamlats!Bebptbtina bt tcl mbfrn dlvld #tcl 'wcndl' systlm) is fcbrbftlrisle ky lmlrglafl bae sld`-nrgbaisbtina kbsle na tcl dnfbd bebptivl klcbvinur n` tcl systlm's fnastitulats!00

    Fnmpdlx systlms cbvl rlflivle iafrlbsle bttlatina `rnm eisfipdials nvlr tcl pbst tcrll

    elfbels pbrtifudbrdy siafl Cnddbaes rlslbrfc bae bfbelmif ditlrbturl ia tcl `ilde n`

    fnmpdlxity sfilafl ielati`ils tcl `nddnwiag bpprnbfcls$ abmle b`tlr tclir glngrbpcifbd

    lmlrglafl8

    Ucl Lurnplba Vfcnnd n` fnmpdlxity erbws `rnm pcysifbd sfilafls witc b `nfus na sld`-

    nrgbaisbtina$ bevnfbtiag tcl fnaflpts n` 'nrelr nut n` fcbns' bae 'nrelr tcrnugc `duftubtinas !

    \siag mbtclmbtifbd mnelds$ tcl Lurnplba Vfcnnd `nfusls na cnw +uanrgbaisle latitils ia b

    givla systlm sllmiagdy nrgbaisl tclmsldvls iatn fnnreiabtle strufturls tcbt sustbia nrrlprneufl tclmsldvls wcla sukhlftle tn ba lxtlrabd `dnw n` lalrgy!+07

    Ia fnatrbst$ tcl Anrtc Bmlrifba Vfcnnderbws `rnm tcl di`l sfilafls bae mbjls lxtlasivl usl n`

    fnmputbtinabd bpprnbfcls! Ucl `nfus dils na bglat-kbsle mnelds tn simudbtl tcl lmlrglafl n`

    nrelr bs wldd bs cilrbrfcifbd strufturls! Nal n` tcl jly tclnrils lxpdbias tcbt8

    +Vufc b systlm n` bglats lvndvl spnatbalnusdy tn b stbtl n` 'sld`-nrgbaisle fritifbdity #Kbj$2990) bt wcifc tcl sizl bae `rlqulafy n` rlstrufturiag lvlats bmnag bglats is rldbtle ky baiavlrsl pnwlr dbw!+03

    Bddla elsfrikls fnmpdlx systlms mnrl tlfcaifbddy8

    B fnmpdlx systlm is b 'wcndl' mbel up n` b dbrgl aumklr n` iatlrbftiag 'pbrts' nr 'bglats'$wcifc brl lbfc gnvlrale ky snml rudls n` `nrfl wcifc rldbtls tclir klcbvinur ia b givla timlplrine fnatiaglatdy tn tcl stbtls n` tcl pbst! Z!!!] Bs iaeivieubd pbrts rlspnae tn tclir nwasplfi`if dnfbd fnatlxts ia pbrbddld witc ntclr pbrts$ qubditbtivldy eistiaft lmlrglat pbttlras$prnplrtils bae pclanmlab fba brisl bt tcl dlvld n` tcl systlm elspitl tcl bkslafl n`lxpdifit iatlr-pbrt fnnreiabtina! Nutfnmls n` tcis prnflss n` upwbre fbusbdity brl vlry ei``ifudttn prleift `rnm janwdlegl n` tcl pbrts bae rudls cnwlvlr!

    09

    @rnm tcis stbtlmlat bdnal$ fnasistlat eistiaguisciag `lbturls fba kl lxtrbftle tcbt brl

    sigai`ifbat `nr frisis mbabglmlat bae brl ldbknrbtle upna ia tcl `nddnwiag fcbptlr!

    0

    Cnw wlddlmkleele isfrisismbabglmlat iaynurnrgbaisbtina>

    Cnw n`tla enlsynurnrgbaisbtinatrbia its frisismbabglmlattlbm>

    Cnw impnrtbatbrl ynuria`nrmbdfnaalftinas iambabgiag bfrisis>

    Cbs ynur frisismbabglmlatsystlm kllabftivbtle ia tclpbst ; ylbrs>

    Wcifc typl n`frisis cbvl ynulxplrilafle mnst`rlqulatdy>

    Eie ynu `iaeynur frisismbabglmlatsystlml``lftivl>

    Wcifc tcrlbt ismnst dijldy tneisrupt ynurkusialss ia tclalxt 2; mnatcs>

    ;0

    ;?26-?2-;2228638?7*?5?? Yls

    @nrmbdmbabglmlatfnatrndprnflsslsimpdlmlatle Ylbrdy nr dlss Midedy impnrtbat

    Mnrl tcba