copyright © 2010 ymr, · all worldwide rights reserved · confidential led supply/demand outlook...

Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential

LED Supply/Demand Outlook

October 25 - 27, 2010San Diego Convention Center, San Diego, CA, USPira Intertech


2

Outline

• State of LED Supply– Regional– LED Manufacturer– LED Tool Maker

• LED Demand– Small/Medium Displays– Large Area Displays– Lighting– Automotive/Signaling– Others

• Supply/Demand – Reactor Forecast• Forecast Deviations


LED Supply


4

Supply Model

• Methodology– Survey Tool Makers and LED

Producers by: – Tool Model

• Capacity• Install Dates• Bookings

– Model the production based on:• Average Die Size/application• Yields/Application

– Epi– Binning

• Calculate Runs/day• Apply

– Fab Utilization– Packaging Yield

• Results– Fab/Wafer Capacity– Epi Yield– Binned Die Capability– Production by

• Tool Maker• LED Producer• Region• Wafer

• Application


5

MOCVD Installed Base

• MOCVD tool count will grow by 50% from 2009 to 2010

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10

Inst

alle

d R

eact

ors

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Gro

wth

Reactors

Y/Y Growth

Q/Q Growth

Source: YMR


6

MOCVD Installed Base by Region

• Chinese government supporting tool purchases:– 13 regional industrial bases– Land/Tax Abatements– US$1.1m to US$1.8M tool subsidies

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10

Sha

re

Taiwan Korea

Japan China

USA Europe

Source: YMR


7

MOCVD Supplier Installs

• New tool shipments and capacity growing exponentially in 2010

Company Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10e

Aixtron 15 41 70 101 130 159

Veeco 7 22 36 48 81 100

Nippon Sanso 0 75 75 75 225 225

Other 0 0 0 0 7 12

Total 22 138 181 224 443 496

Q/Q Growth 31% 24% 98% 12%

Y/Y Growth 1914% 259%

Source: YMR


8

Wafer Capacity (000)

• Wafer size shifting from 2” and 3” to 4”• 6” wafers increase market share in terms of capacity

2009 2010 Growth 2009 Share 2010 Share

2" 45255 60751 34% 73% 63%

3" 5070 4378 -14% 8% 5%

4" 11130 30257 172% 18% 31%

6" 356 1710 380% 1% 2%

Total 61812 97096 57% 100% 100%

Wafer (000)

2009 Area 2010 Area Growth 2009 Share 2010 Share

2" 92 123 34% 43% 29%

3" 23 20 -14% 11% 5%

4" 90 245 172% 43% 58%

6" 6 31 380% 3% 7%

Total 212 420 98% 100% 100%

sq. m (000)

Wafer Size

Wafer Size

Source: YMR


9

Die Capacity(m) and Growth

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10

Die

(m)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Gro

wth

Total

Q/Q Growth

Y/Y Growth

Source: YMR


10

Binned Die(m)and Growth

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10

Bin

ned

Die

(m

)

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Gro

wth

Total

Y/Y Growth

Q/Q Growth

Source: YMR

• Includes epi and binned die yields• Includes utilization and packaging yields


11

Binned Die – Regional Share

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10

Sha

re

Taiwan KoreaJapan ChinaUSA Europe

Source: YMR


12

Leading Manufacturers of LED Die (m)

• Binned Die Production

Rank Company Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10

1 Nichia 1099 1099 1099 1099 1118 1279 1636

2 LG Group 259 261 281 373 399 619 836

3 Epistar 609 623 629 714 636 730 773

4 HUGA 326 339 351 430 467 641 749

5 Tekcore 382 382 382 397 421 535 713

6 Samsung LED 328 337 351 390 399 516 625

7 Epivalley 525 528 533 533 502 521 620

8 Seoul Opto 92 97 105 123 133 348 554

9 Forepi 369 369 369 385 392 445 487

10 Genesis Photonics 391 391 391 391 369 411 427

Others 4037 4050 4094 4211 3926 4686 5726

Total 8417 8478 8586 9046 8762 10731 13148

Die (m)

Source: YMR


13

Taiwan LED Revenues (TWD)

• Taiwan LED m/m revenues down in Oct/Sept. 2010 due to LED (LCD) TV inventories

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ayJu

ne July

Augus

t

Septe

mbe

r

Octobe

r

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

TW

D (

m)

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2009

2010

2009 Growth

2010 Growth

Source: Company Reports


LED Demand


15

Demand Model

• Demand Sources– Backlights

• LCD TVs• Notebooks• Monitors• Small/Medium Displays

– Camera Flashes– Illumination Products

• Residential• Commercial• Industrial• Outdoor

– Automotive/Display/Others


16

Small/Medium Display Demand

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Pan

els

(m)/

LE

D (

m)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Gro

wth

Panel Shipments

LED Shipments

Shipment Growth

LED Growth

Source: YMR


17

Large Area Displays

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Pan

els

(m)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

LE

Ds

(m)

Notebook Monitors

CRT LCD (CCFL)

LCD (LED) PDP

Other LED

Source: YMR/IMS


18

LED Backlit L/A Panels & LED GrowthL/A LED Displays

L/A LED Display Growth

LED Growth

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Pan

els

(m)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Gro

wth

Source: YMR/IMS


19

Converting from Traditional to SSL2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Output (lm) 80 88 97 106 117 129Power (W) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Electrical Efficiency 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95%Thermal Efficiency 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95%Optical Efficiency 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95%LED Degradation 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%Luminaire Efficiency 69% 71% 73% 76% 78% 81%Cost per LED $1.50 $1.35 $1.22 $1.09 $0.98 $0.89

Source: YMR

$-

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$250.00

Incandescent CFL Fluorescent HID

Pri

ce D

iffe

ren

tial

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


20

Lighting Shipments(m) by Application

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Outdoor

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Outdoor

Industrial

Commercial

ResidentialLuminaires Lamp

s

Source: YMR


21

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Incandescent CFL

Fluorescent High Intensity

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Incandescent CFL

Fluorescent High Intensity

Lighting Shipment Share by Technology

Luminaires Lamps

Source: YMR


22

Conversion from Traditional to SSL

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Residential CommercialIndustrial Outdoor

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Residential CommercialIndustrial Outdoor

Luminaires (m)

Lamps (m)

Source: YMR


23

LED Shipments (m) and Share

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Residential CommercialIndustrial Outdoors

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Residential CommercialIndustrial Outdoors

Shipments (m)

Share

Source: YMR


24

LED/Traditional Lamp – Annual Shipments

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%Trad. Lamps SSL LampsSSL Share

Source: YMR


25

LED Demand – Automotive/Signals/Other

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Other

Signals/Automotive

Growth

Source: YMR


LED Supply/Demand


27

LED Demand and Growth

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

LE

D D

eman

d (

m)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Gro

wth

OtherLightingSmall/Medium BacklightsLarge Area LCD BacklightGrowth

Source: YMR/IMS


28

LED Supply/Demand

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Bin

ne

d D

ie (

M)

Binned Die (m) Supply

Binned Die (m) Demand @105%

Die Glut (m) @105% of demand

Supply Fixed at 2010 Levels

Source: YMR


29

Reactor Demand Forecast

128

1447 1457 1482

299

691774

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Rea

cto

rs

Base

3 per. Mov. Avg. (Base)

Source: YMR


Forecast Deviations


31

CNT Based Backlight ReplacementReplacement Characteristics• Catalyst -- metallic

nanoparticles are embedded in a matrix

• Thin– .5 mm glass– <1 mm spacers

• Eliminates – color filter• Provides local dimming• Redundant Emitters• Progressive scan capability• No gate requirement• Cost issues using HFCVD

equipment, potential for printing

• High Voltage Anode (~10-15 kV)

• High LuminanceForecast

Penetration 5% 10% 15%TVs 195 225 250CNT 10 23 38LEDs (m) 4875 10125 15188

Source: YMR/Motorola


32

AMOLED TVs

• Samsung (SMD) expected to announce 8th Gen Fab dedicated to OLED TVs– Timeframe – 2012-2013 installation– 18 40” panels/substrate– Target Capacity

• Year 1 -- 30k substrates/month• Year 2 -- 60k substrates/month• Year 3 -- 90k substrates/month

– LG Display, AUO, Panasonic, Chinese likely to follow

• Forecast (40” panels/year) OLED 2013 2014 2015

Fab 1 1593 8295 13704

Fab 2 1593 8295

Fab 3 8295

Total (000) 1593 9888 30293

LEDs (m) 797 4449 12269

Source: YMR


33

OLED Lighting• Current Status

– >15 companies developing prototypes and pilot lines, including• Philips – Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent• Osram Opto -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent• GE – Solution Based Phosphorescent, R-T-R• Panasonic -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent• Konica Minolta -- Solution Based Phosphorescent, R-T-R• Lumiotec -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent• Zumtobel/Thorne Lighting/Ledon/Fraunhofer – Polymer Based• Mitsubishi/Pioneer -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent, 2nd Gen Fab• Moser Baer -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent• Samsung -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent, 2nd Gen Fab• LG -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent• ModisTech – Polymer, R-T-R• NEC Lighting -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent

– Target Size Substrate• 2nd Gen 2010• 4th Gen 2012


34

OLED Lighting

Primary Market• Currently, OLED lighting

is limited to demonstration programs and decorative/architectural lighting.

• Future – 3 to 5 years away– Fluorescent

Luminaire Replacements

– Integrated into acoustic ceiling tiles

– Compete with LEDs

Source: Osram Opto

Source: Lumiotec

Source: Acuity Brands

Source: General ElectricSource: Lumiotec

Source: Philips


35

OLED Lighting

• Assumptions– Production Capacity

– Performance

– LED/OLED Replacement

2013 2014 2015250x250 mm 16 16 16Substrates (000) 360 720 1080Utilization 70% 80% 85%Yields 50% 75% 85%Production (m) 2 7 12

730x920

sq. m cd/m2 lumens Lm/W W $/klm10" 0.063 3000 589 100 5.9 25512" 0.093 4000 1167 110 10.6 17114" 0.126 5000 1986 120 16.6 126

LEDs 2013 2014 2015per Luminaire 26 23 20Luminaires (m) 9 9 11Lamps (m) 126 327 666Total (m) 135 336 677Total LEDs (m) 3522 7730 13535OLED Share (m) 7 34 102Total LEDs (m) 176 773 2030OLED Fabs 4 5 9

Source: YMR


36

Impact of CNT & OLEDs on MOCVD Installs

Plan Deviation

Difference % Change

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Rea

cto

rs

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

Ch

ang

e

Source: YMR


Questions [email protected] Produces:

Quarterly High Brightness LED Supply and Supply/Demand Report Available from IMS Research

Quarterly Model for Solid State Lighting (SSL) Adoption

LED Material Report (under construction)

OLED Lighting & Display Report (under construction)

copyright © 2010 ymr, · all worldwide rights reserved · confidential led supply/demand outlook...

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