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TRANSCRIPT
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Politics in Iran
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Country Bio: Iran
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World’s only theocracy◦ Government in which laws are grounded in
religion and express will of God, ◦ clergy exercises supreme power
Established in 1979◦ Overthrew Mohammad-Reza Shah Pahlavi – last
ruler of monarchy◦ Ruholla Khomeini – clerical leader, authored
blueprint for theoretic government, led 1979 revolution, opposed democracy on religious grounds
◦ Divine law, shari’a, interpreted and applied by ulema (religious scholars) precedence over laws made by legislators
Politics in Iran
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First decade of Islamic Republic:◦ Some redistribution of wealth◦ Leadership mostly from middle-class backgrounds◦ Adopted populist policies, bettered poor◦ Poverty, inequality, underemployment continue
Job creation very inadequate Need to increase economic output: population
grows 600,000 a year Dissatisfaction with status quo among ethnic
minorities Corruption
Current Policy Challenges
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United States & Iran Relationship Status
It’s complicated 1953 coup
US replaced the UK as “the Great Satan” US seen as the power behind the Shah’s
secularization, westernization & modernization policies Source of decadence & immorality
Partly responsible for weakening the Shah Carter’s human rights emphasis
1979 Revolution seizure of US embassy and the hostage crisis “Death to America”
Current Policy Challenges
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United States & Iran Relationship Status
It’s complicated 9/11
A member of “the axis of evil” Iran-Iraq War
“The enemy of our enemy is our friend” Support for Saddam Hussein
Operation Iraqi Freedom Iran supported Shiite militias against the US
Religious & nationalist competitions in the Middle East Sunni vs. Shia Saudi Arabia (et. al.) vs. Iran
Many US “friends” are Sunni Deepens Iranian suspicions about US motives/intentions
Current Policy Challenges
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United States & Iran Relationship Status
It’s complicated Iranian support for terrorist groups
Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp Hezbollah in Lebanon vs. Israel
The enemy of my friend is my enemy Support for Assad in Syria
Iran’s nuclear program US-led international sanctions due to nuclear program
The Rise of ISIS “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” Iran’s support for Shiite militias in Iraq against ISIS
Current Policy Challenges
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Islam◦ More than 1 billion adherents◦ 2nd largest religion in the world◦ Means “submission to God”◦ One central tenet: There is only one God (Allah)
and Muhammad is his prophet◦ Two major branches
Sunni – “followers of tradition” Shi’ia – “partisans of Ali”
World’s only theocracy
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Sunni◦ Majority (90%)
Shi’ia◦ Concentrated in Iran, southern Iraq, Bahrain,
eastern Turkey, Azerbaijan & southern Lebanon
World’s only theocracy
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Sunni & Shi’ia differences◦ Differ over who should have succeeded the
Prophet Muhammad◦ Sunnis favored choosing the caliph (leader) from
the accepted leadership (the Sunni)◦ Shi’ias argued that leadership should be
hereditary, and should pass to Muhammad’s son-in-law (Ali) Kept belief that the true heirs of Islam were the
descendants of Ali (called imans)
World’s only theocracy
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Sunni & Shi’ia differences continued◦ Shi’ias are also known as Twelvers, since they
follow the Twelve Imans The 12th iman disappeared in the 10th century Called the Mahdi or the Hidden Iman, who will return
to herald the end of the world In the absence of the 12th Iman, the authority to
interpret the shari’a (religious law) should be in the hands of the senior clerical scholars – the ayatollahs
Emphasis on “martyrdom” Some factions embrace apocalyptic views
World’s only theocracy
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Islam as a political theory/ideology◦ More than a religion◦ Complex interplay among Islamic law, social rules
and politics◦ No separation of religion (islam) and state (dawla) ◦ the followers of Islam are all part of a larger
community of the faithful that transcends race, language and national borders
World’s only theocracy
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Islam as a political theory/ideology◦ Provides theories of government and the state
and a comprehensive body of law that can guide the lives of its followers if properly applied A complete program for ordering society
Islamism◦ Attempt to translate the original meaning of the
Quran into something like a constitution for a new political movement
World’s only theocracy
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Islamism◦ Western technology, political ideas, and moral
standards have corrupted Islam,◦ Have taken away the dignity of Muslims◦ And are used by their leaders to keep power by
force and deceit◦ Once Muslims go back to the basics of Islam,
everything will fall into place
World’s only theocracy
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Islamism◦ All laws must be grounded in religion and the
clergy exercises supreme power◦ Sharia (ulama) forms the basis of laws◦ Traditional/conventional interpretations reject
democratic principles of equality and natural rights
World’s only theocracy
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Islamism◦ Strong bias toward inequality
Men & women Muslims & non-Muslims Legitimate minorities (“peoples of the book” ) &
illegitimate (“unbelievers’) ◦ Rights do emanate from God BUT the individual is
subordinate to the larger religious community
World’s only theocracy
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Theology – a government in which political authority resides with religious leaders
An Islamic Republic?◦ A republic assumes that authority resides with the
representatives of the citizens◦ An oxymoron ?
World’s only theocracy
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Persian speakers are largest, half of population
Azeri Turks, Lurs, Baluchis, Arabs, Turkmens
Prerevolutionary elites defined nation as Persian
Post-revolution: Twelver Shiism as defining trait
Conflicts: ignoring of ethnic minorities and non-Twelver Shiites
Historical Legacy: Multiethnic Nation
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1. Never colonized by European powers2. 1905 Revolution & Constitution 3. Mosadegh elected, then ousted in 1953 by
U.S. and Britain 4. Shah put in power until popular revolution
in 1979 5. War with Iraq in 1980 allowed Islamists to
consolidate power
History – Key Periods
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Historical Legacy: Constitutionalism in Iran
1905-06: widespread dissatisfaction led to constitution
Believed citizenry had right to elect representative parliament
Ayatollah Muhammad-Husayn Na’inni: Twelfth Imam chose to remain in hiding, believers are his deputies
Reconciled Shiism’s beliefs with modern constitutionalism , legacy revolutionaries of 1979 could not ignore in creating Islamic state
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1953 Mosadegh advocates nationalizing Iran’s oil
business The empire strikes back
◦ British & American intelligence services orchestrate a coup America becomes the Great Satan; UK a lesser Satan
◦ Shah reinstated with American support (through 1970s) Created a distrust of West – economic & cultural
◦ “They’re out to get us”; “They want our oil”; “The Shah is selling us out to the Americans”
Modern Iranian History
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Shah institutes a “White Revolution”◦ “modernizing authoritarian”◦ Counter the “reds”◦ Buy land from large owners and sell to small
farmers◦ Secularized society by giving voting rights to
women and restricting polygamy; women allowed to work outside the home Angered religious traditionalists
◦ Authoritarian regime: SAVAK (secret police)
Modern Iranian History
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Iran transformed into a rentier state◦ Economy heavily supported by state expenditures◦ State receives “rent” from other countries by
selling oil◦ So much income that internal taxes are no longer
needed Regime doesn’t “need” the people anymore Some import substitution by encouraging domestic
industries
Modern Iranian History
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Islamic Revolution◦ Shah’s behavior
Totalitarian Secularized Iran too much too fast (clerical view) Ties to the west (especially USA)
Offended Iranian nationalists
◦ Divided political culture Modern (secular) vs. traditional ways
Clerical elite rose to oppose the shah, lead a revolution, and eventually take over the government
Modern Iranian History
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Oil prices decreased by about 10% at the same time that consumer prices increased by about 20%◦ “revolution of rising expectations”
US pressures on Shah to stop human rights abuses◦ Iran groups voice frustrations◦ Demonstrations with police overreaction
Unarmed demonstrators killed (Bloody Friday) Oil workers on strike Anti-regime rallies From his exile in Paris Khomeini audiotapes encouraged
unrest Shah leaves Iran for medical treatment
Sparks that Began the Crisis
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1979 – return of religion and the market ◦ Iranian Revolution
Triumph of Islam; creation of world’s 1st modern theocracy (Islamic Republic)
◦ Deng Xiaoping begins to open-up China’s economy China modernizes & liberalizes the economy Maintains & (arguably) increases the power of the CCP
◦ Margaret Thatcher elected PM of UK Free markets & privitizatation
◦ Mujahideen rose up against the Soviets in Afghan Beginning of the end of the USSR? The road to “9/11” and beyond
◦ Pope John Paul II visits Poland
A Bird Walk Through History
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The Islamic Republic◦ Khomeini as Supreme Leader
consolidation of power and purges
occupation of US embassy Iran-Iraq war increased levels of repression
within Iran
The Evolution of the Iranian State
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History Review: The Islamic Revolution
Shah began liberalizing Iran’s political system Groups pushed for greater reforms Revolutionary uprising: Khomeini best organized 1979 New Constitution
Parliament elected by universal suffrage Shah replaced by elected president
1979 to 1981◦ Secular moderates, competition for power◦ Khomeini gained upper hand, began instituting
Islamic law in all spheres of public life
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Islamic Revolution◦ Charismatic leader: Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini
Defended Islamic fundamentalism Quran, social conservatives, political tradionalists
Articulated resentments against elites and USA Redefined old Shia term “velayat-e faqih”
Jurists guardianship Originally gave senior clergy broad authority over
unfortunate people (widows, orphans, etc.) New: clerical authority over entire Shia community
Modern Iranian History
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Khomeini returns Islamic Republic established April 1979 New constitution by Assembly of Religious
Experts◦ Adopted through referendum
75% turnout; 99% yes US hostage crisis Consolidation of power by clerics
◦ Khomeini’s charisma and popularity◦ Irag’s invasion – rallied Iranian people to protect
country against a common enemy◦ Oil prices back up
Sparks that Began the Crisis
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The Iranian Revolution was the first contemporary revolution in which dominant ideology, forms of organization, leadership cadres, and proclaimed goals were religious in form and aspiration.◦ A revolution led by the clergy, financed by the
bazaaris (traditional merchants), and fought by the urban poor, it led to the establishment of the 1st revolutionary theocracy in the modern era. While Western revolutions were all against church
and state, in Iran it was only directed against the state.
Comparing Characteristics and Outcomes of Some Revolutions
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The ascendency of clerics to political power in Iran in 1979◦ Financial independence from the state◦ Strong communication networks◦ Legal centers of mobilization (mosques, seminaries,
religious foundations, etc.)◦ Numerous religious occasions◦ Historical/mythical figures◦ A centralized leadership w/ a well-defined
hierarchical structure◦ A ready blueprint for action◦ Shah’s regime suppressed the leftist competition
Comparing Characteristics and Outcomes of Some Revolutions
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The Iranian Revolution remains the only modern social revolution in which the peasantry and rural guerilla warfare played a marginal role
Just like in China, the new revolutionary elites in Iran started a campaign of “cultural revolution” to purge their enemies◦ Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution◦ Iranian “cultural revolution” (1980-82)
“Hezbollahis” targeted leftist forces (communists) and liberal intellectuals (non-loyal and undesirable elements)
◦ Revolutionary zeal more important that technocratic expertise
◦ Educational systems came to a standstill
Comparing Characteristics and Outcomes of Some Revolutions
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The leaders of both the Chinese and the Iranian revolutions (Mao and Khomeini) personified charismatic authority.
The founding fathers of the Russian and the Iranian revolutions (Lenin and Khomeini) each spent many years in exile.
Lenin & Khomeini both developed political theories that included the concept of “guardianship” (by the party; by the clergy)
Deng Xiaoping, Gorbachev, and Khatami were three reformist leaders who ventured to change the direction of a state born through revolution.
Comparing Characteristics and Outcomes of Some Revolutions
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Historical Legacy: Iran-Iraq War
Khomeini began calling for overthrow of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, provoked attack
War enabled revolutionary regime to consolidate power, means for suppressing dissent
Created “war” generation of veterans calling for social order, more political participation
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Mixture of theocracy and democracy◦ “vox dei” & “vox populi”
Clerical authority AND popular sovereignty “divine right” of clergy AND rights of the
people◦ People have constitutional rights to speech,
assembly, etc. “within the criteria of Islam” Regular elections for presidency and Majles
(parliament) Clerically dominated Guardian Council
determined who can run for elected office
The Islamic Republic of Iran
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◦ The Iranian state Elected Institutions
president Assembly of Experts Majlis
The People and Politics
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◦ The Iranian state Unelected elements
Supreme Leader: controls military, media, judiciary, and clerical hierarchy
Guardian Council: approves all candidates and legislation
Expediency Council: mediates between majlis and Guardian Council
judiciaray
The People and Politics
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Velayat-e faqih (Jurist’s guardianship) The principle instituted by Khomeini of
overarching authority for different government institutions:◦ Supreme Leader◦ Guardian Council◦ Assembly of Religious Experts◦ Expediency Council
This authority is all-encompassing and is over whole community based on their ability to understand shari’a and their commitment to champion the rights of the people
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Institutions of the Islamic Republic An Honestly Undemocratic Constitution
◦ Elected reformers can be blocked by other not-elected political actors using powers included in the constitution
Multiple Power Centers◦ 1. Not content with purging state institutions of
individuals they deemed counterrevolutionary, revolutionaries built new ones whose competency overlapped with the old established ones.
◦ 2. The idea was that the old institutions would more or less carry on with business as usual, while the new institutions would actively pursue the realization and defense of the new Islamic order.
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Attempted synthesis of the divine and popular sovereignty
Institutions were created by the revolutionaries to supplement the activities of the traditional state institutions In 1979, the revolutionaries inherited administrative
personnel whose commitment to the new ideology they did not trust
They created new institutions which would actively pursue the realization and defense of the new Islamic order while overlapping with the old established ones, who would carry on more or less with business as usual.
Multiple Power Centers
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Examples◦ Office of the Revolutionary Prosecutor runs
parallel to the Ministry of Justice◦ The komitehs (revolutionary committees whose
members enforce aspects of the regime’s moral codes) parallel the police
◦ The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC or Pasdaran) originally safeguarded the revolution but has, in time, developed into a parallel army and even air force & navy.
Multiple Power Centers
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In the 1990s, some state institutions came under the control of the reformists
Conservatives created new parallel institutions under the authority of the Supreme Leader◦ When the Ministry of Information/secret police
came to be staffed with reformists, the Judiciary (whose head is names by the Supreme Leader), set up a parallel secret police
Greatly complicate policymaking
Multiple Power Centers
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Institutions of the Islamic Republic Leader
◦ Highest authority in Islamic Republic Combines religious, temporal
authority ◦ Assembly of Experts Choose Leader
President◦ Elected by universal suffrage every four years◦ Must be Twelver Shiite and male ◦ Does not have to be cleric
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The constitution gives him wide-ranging powers
Functions as the vital link between the three branches◦ Mediates between the legislature, the executive,
and the judiciary “Determine the interests of Islam” “Supervise the implementation of general
policy” “Set political guidelines for the Islamic
Republic”
The Leader
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Can eliminate presidential candidates Can dismiss the duly elected president Can grant amnesty As commander in chief, he can mobilize the
armed forces, declare war & peace, and convene the Supreme Military Council
He can appoint and dismiss the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards, as well as those of the regular army. Navy, and air force
The Leader
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Nominate and remove the chief judge, the chief prosecutor, and the revolutionary tribunals
Nominates 6 clerics to the 12-man Guardian Council◦ Can veto parliamentary bills◦ Review all candidates for elected office
Appoints the Expediency Council◦ Resolves disputes between the Guardian Council
and the Majles◦ Can initiate laws on its own
The Leader
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Fills a number of important non-governmental posts◦ Preachers at the main city mosques◦ Director of the radio-television network◦ Heads of the main religious endowments
(bonyads), Especially, the Foundation of the Oppressed
Cannot be dismissed (newest interpretation) Selected by the Assembly of Religious
Experts
The Leader
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Chief executive 4-year term; two-term limit Conducts internal and external policies
◦ Signs all international treaties, laws, and agreements
◦ Chairs the National Security Council Responsible for defense
◦ Selects vice presidents and cabinet ministers◦ Appoints provincial governors, town mayors, and
ambassadors
The President
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President is the formal head of executive branch◦ But, he can be overruled, even dismissed , by the
chief cleric (the Leader or Supreme Leader) President appoints the minister of justice
◦ Whole judiciary is under the supervision of the chief judge, who is appointed by the Leader
The Islamic Republic of Iran
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Institutions of the Islamic Republic
Parliament◦ Unicameral, the Majles: 290 members◦ Must be Muslims but Constitution provides for 5
members to represent Christians (3), Jews (1), Zoroastrians (1)
◦ Two features of political system limit the Majle’s legislative role: Many policies, rules, regulations are set by unelected
specialized bodies All bills subject to veto of Council of Guardians
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Legislature (Majles) makes laws◦ But bills do not become law unless the Guardian
Council deems them compatible with Islam and the Islamic Constitution
Contemporary Iranian politics resonates with both◦ Vox dei (voice of God) and◦ Vov populi (voice of the people)◦ 2009 election was exception to above
The Islamic Republic of Iran
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Institutions of the Islamic Republic Council of Guardians
◦ 6 members of ulema, 6 lay Muslim lawyers◦ Ulema appointed by Leader, lawyers nominated
by Judiciary, approved by Parliament Expediency Council: for determination of what
is in interest of regime◦ Collective body for arbitration of conflict◦ Leader appoints 30 members of council◦ Helps leader formulate policy
An Honestly Undemocratic Constitution Multiple Power Centers
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It has become an upper chamber to the Majles
Meets in secret Accountable only to the Leader
◦ 32 members including president, chief judge, speaker of the Majles, ministers of intelligence, oil, culture & foreign affairs, commander of the Revolutionary Guard, chief of the General Staff, and others
Expediency Council
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Largely controlled by the Supreme Leader◦ Appoints the head of the judiciary
Who in turn appoints the head of the supreme court and chief public prosecutor
Public courts deal with civil and criminal cases
“Revolutionary” courts try crimes against national security, narcotics smuggling, and acts that undermine the Islamic Republic◦ Decisions cannot be appealed
The Judiciary
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Laws are supposed to conform to religious law – shari’a
The principle of jurist’s guardianship means that the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and the Assembly of Religious Experts have the final say regarding interpretation of law
Two types of law◦ Shari’a and Qunun
The Judiciary
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Shari’a◦ Considered the foundation of all Islamic
civilization◦ Divine law derived from God◦ Meant to embody a vision of a community in
which all Muslims are brothers and sisters and subscribe to the same moral values
◦ Foundation of Iran’s political systems rest in the belief that shari’a supersedes all other types of law
◦ And its interpretation is the most important of all responsibilities for political and religious leaders
The Judiciary
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Qanun◦ No sacred basis◦ Body of statutes made by legislative bodies◦ Must not contradict shari’a
Function of Guardian Council and the Supreme Leader to review work of legislature
Judicial review does exist in Iran However, ultimate legal authority does not
exist in the constitution, but in shari’a law itself
The Judiciary
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The judicial system itself has been Islamized all the way down to the district courts
Created a penal code (Retribution Law) based on “an eye for an eye…”◦ Permitted families to demand “blood money” in
compensation◦ Extensive use of death penalty , including “moral
transgressions” Divided the population into male & female
and Muslims & non-Muslims and treated them unequally
The Judiciary
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Iran:• Tradition of rule of law:▫ Rule by Shah▫ Sharia law adopted in 1979 Constitution
• Measurement:▫ Freedom House: PR-6, CL-6▫ World Bank Governance Percentile Rank: 23
• Institutions:▫ Chief Judge, Minister of Justice▫ Supreme Court, special courts (revolutionary, clerical)
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Culture and Islamic Guidance◦ Controlling the media and enforcing “proper
conduct” in public life Intelligence Heavy Industries
◦ Manages the nationalized factors Reconstruction
◦ Expanding social services◦ Take “true Islam” into the countryside
Dominated by clergy
The Bureaucracy
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Policy Formulation
State Institutions Mentioned in the Constitution◦ No state policy may contradict Islam
Leader Expediency Council National Security Council Council of Guardians Executive branch and parliament
State Institutions not Mentioned in the Constitution◦ Supreme Council for the Cultural Revolution
Power Centers and the Difficulty of Coordination◦ Multiple power centers, policies often not
coordinated◦ Judiciary, Revolutionary Guards
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A. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps◦ Pasdaran in Persian◦ Military force (125,000 troops including ground
forces, navy, air force, intelligence & special forces) Controls the paramilitary Basij (Mobilization of the
Oppressed) Shock troops called out to use force to suppress dissent
◦ Growing political power
Retired officers taking on executive roles in government Head of key ministries: oil, energy, interior, defense New job – manage intelligence for Iran; report directly
to the Leader
Semi-Public Institutions
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A. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps◦ “A business conglomerate with guns.”
Ties to over 100 companies that control roughly $12 billion in construction & engineering capital
Khatam al-Anbiya: holding company with control of more than 812 registered companies inside or outside Iran; recipient of 1700 gov’t contracts (often “no bid” under Ahmadinejad)
Majority stake in the main telcom company Thought to control around 1/3 of Iran’s economy
University labs, arms companies, car manufacturer
Semi-Public Institutions
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A. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps◦ Exercise additional control through:
B. Bonyads (Charitable Foundations)◦ See Briefing Paper pp. 42-43◦ Run by religious authorities◦ Often in competition with IRGC◦ Case study: “Inside Iran’s Holy Money Machine”
(WSJ, 2007) The Shrine of Imam Reza
C. Parastatels
Semi-Public Institutions
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Modern middle class Educated women Students
◦ Recent “protests” (1999, 2002, 2009?) Revolutionary Guard Basij Bonyads Bazaari Merchants
Important Political Groups
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A. Overlaps and duplications leading to contradictions
B. Fatwas (religious edicts) by the leader C. Expediency Council to decide when to
override religious law D. Supreme Council for the Cultural
Revolution See Briefing Paper pp 38-42, 43-51
State policymaking
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Policy Formulation Economic Policymaking: most contentious
topic 1980s liberal approach: private sector, market
mechanisms Mixed results, led to hardship, faced opposition
Under Ahmadinejad: Populist rhetoric of redistribution,
privatization Uses government contracts to reward allies
Spreading Progress and Prosperity◦ State educational system good◦ Birth control, health care◦ Roads, basic services
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Recruiting the Political Elite
What kinds of people govern Iran?◦ Under Shah:
Small class of educated, secular Iranians who had personal loyalty to monarch
◦ Under Islamic Republic: Personalism Revolutionary pedigrees Clergy recruited into state Nonclerical parliamentarians, ministers emerge from
educational, military institutions Many new elite have come from ranks of Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij Kinship ties
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A. Formerly based on revolutionary credentials
B. Currently based on selection from newly Islamicized universities, Islamic Revolutionary Guard, and Basij
Recruitment of political elites
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Elections and Parties
The Prerevolutionary Legacy◦ Limited competitive elections◦ Suffrage for women◦ Parties weak
Postrevolutionary Parties◦ Islamic Republican Party (IRP)
Factionalism: ideological differences Conservatives Pragmatists Reformers
◦ 1990s: Khatami’s election, more parties appeared on scene, alliances are fluid
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Personalized, not “catch-all” Not legalized until 1998
◦ Early stages of developing a party system◦ The Iranian “party system” resembles the party
system of …. ? Why? “… resemble professional groupings
engaged in political ventures rather than full-fledged groups of full-time activists.”◦ Briefing Paper pg 24◦ Overhead listing of pre-2005 parties
Political Parties
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See Briefing Paper pg 25 Competitive & Institutionalized Majority needed for election The Majles election of 2004
◦ The conservations push back The Presidential election of 2005
◦ Why Ahmadinezhad (“The Accidental President”) won
The stolen election of 2009 “A New Hope?” Rouhani in 2013
Elections
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Elections and Parties Parliamentary Elections
◦ Multimember constituencies Voter names as many candidates as there are seats
in constituency Top vote-getters in each constituency are elected, if
receive 50% of total vote Elections of 2004
Council of Guardians disallowed Reformist candidates
Call for boycott of election, 50% of population went to polls
◦ Elections of 2008 Reformist candidates disallowed, turnout again high New outspoken critics of Ahmadinejad
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Elections and Parties: Presidential Elections
◦ 1980 first ever presidential election
◦ Next four elections: Khomeini associates
◦ Khatami: Outsider, appealed to those
who had been humiliated by regime
Promised greater cultural openness, personal freedom
2005 & 2009 elections: conservative mayor of Tehran, Mahud Ahmadinejad
2013 Rouhani (moderate? reformer?)
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The Islamic Republic◦ Rafsanjani’s presidency
Rasanjani a pragmatist Khameini (new Supreme Leader) more
conservative Khatami’s presidency: moderate stressing
development of civil society Khameini’s (& Conservatives) reassertion of
power 2004 majlis election 2005, 2009 elections of Ahmadinejad “Green Movement” Protests
The Evolution of the Iranian State
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Elections and Parties: Local Elections
◦ 1906 Constitution provided for elected local government councils, never constituted
◦ Similar provision, 1979 Constitution, began 1999 Iranians (first time) elected city, town, village councils Reformists won control over most councils
Elections 2003: low turnout Mostly conservatives, result: very conservative
councils December 2006: new elections
Participation increased Ahmadinejad conservatives won only a few
seats Rebuke for president’s handling of economy
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◦ Political Culture no homogeneous political culture Social cleavages
Religion Ethnicity Social class
division between rural and urban poor and urban middle class and wealthy
Reformers and conservatives See Briefing Paper pp 28-30
unpredictable evolution of huge youth cohort
The People and Politics
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Political Culture System level
◦ Iranian nationalism, ancient Persia◦ Vanguard of Islamic world’s struggle against
Western domination◦ Ethic nationalism has become stronger among
Iran’s non-Persian populations◦ Right to develop nuclear energy Government used issue to shore up
legitimacy
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Political Culture
Process level◦ Islamic revolution increased participation in
politics◦ Some disaffected◦ Extreme individualism◦ Lack of trust of government◦ Periodic emergence of charismatic leaders◦ Factionalism
See handout: “Iran Presidential Poll: Issues & Divisions”
Note: “Green Movement” of 2009
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Factions in The Islamic Republic
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Anti- Ahmadinejad coalition (pro-Khamene’i)◦ Captured approximately 75% of the seats
Pro-Ahmadinejad coalition = approximately 15-20%
Others – 5-10% Reformists – boycotted election
2012 Majiles election
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Political Culture
Policy level◦ Oil: Iranians expect state to provide welfare,
material well-being for everybody, alleviate gap between rich and poor
◦ Corruption◦ Suspicion of private enterprise◦ Populism
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Political Socialization
Education System: first to be Islamicized Military and Veterans: conscription Religion and Religious Institutions: more
divisive than unifying
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Shi’ite Islam plays a role in political socialization – through mosques
Schools ◦ “secularized” under Shah◦ Return to religion after Islamic Revolution
Established pro-regime volunteer organizations to monitor and contend with political activities of students◦ See Briefing paper pg 30◦ Universities subject to periodic attempts to “cleanse”
and “purify” recent examples as reported in the news
Political Socialization
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A. Public role pronounced, but state unable to monopolize religious belief and practice
1. Divisive role of religion 2. Local variations in religious observance 3. Satellite dishes and the Internet 4. University-educated younger generation
Role of religion
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Policy Outcomes
Islamization of Society◦ Alcohol banned except for non-Muslim
minorities◦ Veiling enforced in public spaces◦ State committed to minimizing contact
between unrelated men, women◦ Religious content of education vastly expanded◦ Gruesome physical punishment to adulterers,
homosexuals, offenders of religious morality◦ Outwardly a success, underneath surface:
bootlegging, prostitution, drugs, corruption◦ Religious practice has become more private
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Political Socialization
Mass Media: role is unifying and divisive Family and Social Groups: family dynamic
changing, popular voices no influence
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Feedback: media independent but heavily regulated by government◦ See Briefing Paper pg 31◦ Criminal offense to use “pen and speech” against
the government (1981)◦ Radio and TV are government run
Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) Head is directly appointed by the Leader
◦ Newspapers and magazines are privately owned
Mass Media
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Media has some function to criticize the government◦ But not directly
Exact rules for the media are vague Rules change depending on who’s in charge Satellite dishes are illegal, but many
Iranians have them anyway◦ Examples of media controls in the news◦ See Freedom House analysis
Mass Media
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Protest and challenges to the Islamic Republic◦ 1999, 2003, and 2007 (mostly students)◦ no organized democratic movement
Elections and the prospects for Democracy◦ freest electoral system in Middle East
eight presidential and seven legislative elections
dozens of parties unelected Guardian Council blocks
democracy
The People and Politics
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Conclusion: Uncertainty◦ internal and external forces ambiguous◦ reaction of huge youth cohort to change or lack
of change unpredictable◦ attitudes of leadership uncertain
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Interest Articulation and Aggregation
Forms of interest articulation and aggregation◦ Noninstitutional Clientelism and patron-client
networks◦ Institutionalized Voting, weakness of party
organizations Institutional Groups and Professional
Organizations Nonassociational Social Groups Demonstrations and Public Protests
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Elections Patron-client relations Personalistic relations
Interest Aggregation & Articulation
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Interest articulation◦ Interest Groups◦ Political parties are ill-defined◦ Difficult to draw the lines between parties and
interest groups◦ Groups register with the government◦ Examples
Islamic Association of Women Green Coalition Workers House
Factory workers Political party = Islamic Labor Party Published own newspaper
Linkage Institutions
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A. Women B. Bazaari merchants
◦ Political backing has been important◦ Have lost some power recently◦ Go on strike to protest proposed government
actions; e.g. tax increases ◦ See Briefing Paper pg. 42
C. War veterans D. Families of martyrs and those disabled in
Iran-Iraq war
Autonomous associations
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G. Policy failures—unable to spread Islamic moral values
1. prostitution 2. drug addiction 3. bootlegging 4. corruption H. Inability to aggregate interests
successfully
State policymaking
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Policy Outcomes
Gender Relations ◦ Legal restrictions on women’s rights◦ Discriminations instituted by Islamic Republic◦ Fields of study closed to women◦ Sports restricted, attire incompatible with
veiling◦ Compete in sports, at locations men not
admitted◦ Women increasing participation in public life◦ Many working outside home◦ Universities’ restrictions on studies being lifted◦ Mal-veiling◦ Islamic feminism
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Faith and gender◦ theocracy◦ treatment of women is a telling sign of state of
affairs The Economy
◦ average wealth equal to Mexico or Russia◦ dependence on export of oil◦ poverty, inflation, and unemployment of youth are
unsolved problems◦ bonyads, created from seized property of former
regime leaders and powerful economic influence
Public Policy
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E. Results—centralized control and totalitarianism untenable
F. Policy successes—◦ state educational system, ◦ improving lot of the poor,◦ lowering birth rates, ◦ improving healthcare, and ◦ improving the countryside and general provision
of services to citizens
State policymaking
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Policy Outcomes
Foreign Policy ◦ Under Shah - US an ally◦ Now – neither East nor West
1990s: national interest rather than exporting revolution dominated
Third World desire to escape hegemony of West Regional trade in goods, services with Middle East Emboldened Kurds of Iran Main issue confronting Iranian diplomacy is
nuclear program◦ International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring◦ Sanctions
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A. Transition from exporting Islamic Revolution to protect national interest
B. Continued international isolation due to anti-Western policies, nuclear program, and support of Hizballah in Lebanon
C. Schism with Sunni Muslims likely to limit influence on Islamists worldwide
Foreign policy and position in the world
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A. Conspiracy theories B. Lack of trust towards media C. Socialization through schools and military D. Cleansing of universities of
“counterrevolutionary elements” E. Role of family and neighborhood as areas
for debate
Effects of position in international system
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Iran and the United States: Toward the Next War?
◦ US involvement since ’53 coup◦ hostile policies from US
attacks during embassy occupation opposition during Iran-Iraq war “axis of evil” label
◦ ambiguity of nuclear power/weapons program◦ economic influence
Public Policy
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Conclusion
Faced many challenges and survived
Reopening of debate: What is the proper relation between religion and politics in Iran?
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