copyright © 2012 pearson addison-wesley. all rights reserved. chapter 2 the measurement of income,...

Copyright © 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

Chapter 2

The Measurement of Income,Prices, and Unemployment

Copyright © 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-2

The Circular Flow of Income and Expenditure

• The circular flow of income and expenditure model is a simple representation of the macro economy

• In the following graph, convince yourself that:– The value of output produced by firms equals the value of expenditures by participants in the economy

– The value of output produced by firms equals the total income generated in the economy


Figure 2-1 The Circular Flow of Income and Consumption Expenditures


Defining GDP

• GDP (Y) is the value of all final goods and services that are currently produced and sold (but not resold) through the market during the current time period– The GDP of a country is often referred to as the country’s output and/or income


Table 2-1 What’s In and What’s Out of GDP


Keeping Track of GDP and other U.S. Data

• The National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) is the official U.S. government accounting of all the U.S. flows of income and expenditures.

• The “Big Three” agencies for U.S. economic data– The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)– The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)– The Federal Reserve Board (Fed)

• Other sources of data– The Bureau of the Census– International data: OECD, the World Bank and the IMF


Types of Investment (I)

• Inventory Investment is the change in the stock of raw materials, parts and finished products held by businesses.– Any goods that are unsold automatically are counted as part of unplanned inventory investment.

• Fixed Investment includes all final goods (mainly structures and equipment) purchased by businesses not intended for resale.– Houses and condominiums owned by households are also counted as fixed investment.


Relation of Investment and Saving

• Personal Saving (S) is that part of personal income that is not consumed or paid out in taxes– Also referred to as Private Saving– Algebraically: S = (Y-T) - C (where T = Net Taxes)

• Funds from savings are channeled to firms in two basis ways:– Households buy bonds and stocks issued by firms– Households deposit savings in banks and other financial institutions that in turn lend money to firms

• Firms use the money channeled from savings to buy investment goods


Figure 2-2 Introduction of Saving and Investment to the Circular Flow Diagram


Net Exports and Net Foreign Investment

• Exports are goods produced within one country and shipped to another

• Imports are goods consumed within one country but produced in another country

• Net Exports (NX) are equal to the excess of exports over imports

• Net Foreign Investment (NFI) is equal to U.S. purchases of foreign financial assets minus foreign purchases of U.S. financial assets– Interesting connection: NX = NFI !


The Government Sector

• Government Purchases (G) is the value of goods and services purchased by the government at the federal, state and local levels

• Transfer Payments (F) are payments from the government to households that do not require the recipient to provide a service in return– Examples: Social Security, Medicare and Food Stamps

• Government Spending = G + F• The Government pays for its spending by collecting

Taxes (R) or by borrowing and/or printing money• Net Taxes (T) = R – F• Budget Surplus = T – G


Figure 2-3 Introduction of Taxation, Government Spending, and the Foreign Sector to the Circular Flow Diagram


Global Economic Crisis and GDP

• How long did the crisis last?– Business Cycle Peak: 2007:Q4– Business Cycle Trough: 2009:Q2

• How did the components of GDP behave over this time?– Real consumption by 0.8%– Real government spending by 6.6%– NX became significantly less negative– But real investment by 31.7%!


Deriving the “Magic” Equation

• The income accounting identity states that an economy’s income must equal its expenditures:

Y ≡ E

• Now, use the fact that household income must equal household outlays (and recall that T = R - F): Y + F = C + S + R

• Equating (1) and (2) yields the “Magic Equation”

C + S + T = C + I + G + NX

S + T = I + G + NX

Y = C + I + G + NX

Y = C + S + T

(1)

(2)


Interpreting the “Magic Equation”

Recall the “Magic Equation:” S + T = I + G + NX

• Leakages (S + T) describe the portion of total income that is not available for consumption

• Injections (I + G + NX) is a term for non- consumption expenditures

• The “Magic Equation” shows how leakages and injections are connected by definition!


“Magic Equation” Application: Twin Deficits

Recall the “Magic Equation:” S + T = I + G + NX

• Rearranging (1) yields T - G = (I + NX) – S– If T - G < 0 possibly NX < 0– This suggests that a budget deficit and trade deficit might be observed at the same time!

– Note that the “magic equation” only suggests the possible connections that may be observed in these variables.

(1)


The “Magic Equation” in Recent Years (as % of GDP)


Table 2-2 Households Get What Remains After All the Leakages


Nominal GDP, Real GDP and the GDP Deflator

• Nominal GDP is the value of gross domestic product in current (actual) prices.

• Real GDP is the measure of gross domestic product using prices of an arbitrarily chosen base year.

• The GDP deflator is a price index that measures the aggregate economy’s price level.– Algebraically: GDP Def = Nominal GDP / Real GDP * 100

– The percentage change in the GDP deflator gives a measure of the economy’s inflation rate.


Figure 2-4 Nominal GDP, Real GDP, and the GDP Deflator, 1900–2010

Source: Appendix Table A-1. See explanation in Appendix C-4.


How to Calculate Growth Rates

• The general formula for the percentage annual growth rate of any variable X at time t beginning from time s:

(where LN is the natural log function)• Inflation and GDP growth rates are just two applications of this formula!


Measuring Unemployment

• The unemployed are those without who either are on temporary layoff or have taken specific action to look for work

• The total labor force is total of the civilian employed, the armed forces and the unemployed

• The actual unemployment rate (U) is defined below:

• Each month 1,500 census workers interview a random sample of 60,000 households to estimate unemployment


Flaws in the Definition of Unemployment

• U is not a measure of social distress– Much worse for the head of a household to be unemployed compared to a 16-year old teenage

– Other common situations:• College graduates looking for first jobs • Women reentering the labor market after maternity leave

• People who voluntarily quit jobs and are now looking again

• U misses “forced part time workers”• U misses “discouraged workers” who are not actively seeking jobs and therefore are not in the labor force– See chart on next slide!


Millions Impacted by Recessionsbut Not Counted as Unemployed

copyright © 2012 pearson addison-wesley. all rights reserved. chapter 2 the measurement of income,...

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