copyright © 2015, technology futures, inc. · (telenor) 4.2004, pp. 32-42. nominal range 1.5 mb/s...


Lawrence Vanston, Ph.D.President,Technology Futures, Inc. [email protected]

International Institute of Forecasters

35th International Symposiumon Forecasting

June 21 – 24, 2015

Riverside, California - USA

Broadband Access in America:

Status, Forecasts, and Politics

13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C-1 • Austin, Texas 78750

+1 512 258-8898 • www.tfi.com


TFI Broadband Forecasts, 1990s


A Facsimile of the Future: Forecasts of Markets and Technologies, Lawrence K. Vanston,

William J. Kennedy, and Samia El-Badry-Nance (1991)

Computer-Based Imaging and Telecommunications: Forecasts of Markets and Technologies,

Lawrence K. Vanston, Samia El-Badry-Nance, William J. Kennedy, and Nancy E. Lux (1992)

Interactive Multimedia and Telecommunications: Forecasts of Markets and Technologies, Julia

Marsh and Lawrence K. Vanston (1992)

Local Area Network Interconnection and Telecommunications, Bruce R. Kravitz and Lawrence K.

Vanston (1992)

Video Communications, Lawrence K. Vanston, Julia Marsh, and Susan M. Hinton (1992)

Telecommunications for Television/Advanced Television, Lawrence K. Vanston, Julia Marsh, and

Susan M. Hinton (1992)

New Telecommunications Services and the Public Telephone Network, Lawrence K. Vanston

(1993)

All Technology Futures, Inc.


U.S. Digital Households,1996 TFI Forecast

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Pe

rcen

tage

of

Hou

se

ho

lds

Year

Households Using Digital Services

Households Using Digital Services(incl. ISDN,xDSL,Cable Modems)

MM Online/InternetHouseholds


U.S. Broadband Households, 1996 TFI Forecast

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ho

use

ho

lds

Year

Households Using Digital Services -Minimum Competitive Data Rates

1.5 Mb/s18 kft

6Mb/s10 kft

24 Mb/s3 kft

100 Mb/s& Above1 kft @52 Mb/s

Digital Services1.5 Mb/s& Above

Maximum loop lengthsshown in italics


Average Data Rate, 1996 TFI Forecast

0.01

0.10

1.00

10.00

100.00

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Ave

rage

Da

ta R

ate

(M

b/s

)

Year

Home Digital Services -Average Data Rate

28 Kb/s

64 Kb/s

1.5 Mb/s

6 Mb/s

24Mb/s

50 Mb/s

100 Mb/s

Annual Increase: 50%


Constant Percentage Rate of Advance

• Most new technologies progress this way

• Rates will continue if:

– The improvement is technically possible

– Basic approach remains the same

– Demand, utility, need continue

From TFI’s Technology Forecasting Seminar


U.S. Minimum Broadband Availability & Broadband Households, 1996 TFI Forecast

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ho

use

ho

lds

Year

Home Digital Availability and Subscribers -1.5 Mb/s & Above

AVAILABILITY1.5 Mb/s& Above

SUBSCRIBERS1.5 Mb/s& Above

Take-Rate


Adoption and Availabilty

• Adoption, the percentage of the potential market that has adopted the service (e.g., subscribers), aka, Market Penetration

• Availability, the percentage of the potential market that has the service available (e.g., homes passed) which reflects the deployment of network technology

• Take Rate = Adoption / Availability

= Subscribers / Homes Passed


Original Source: Telecommunications for Television/Advanced Television: Forecasts

of Markets and Technologies, Lawrence K. Vanston, Julia A. Marsh, and Susan M.

Hinton, Technology Futures, Inc., 1992.

Recent Paper: Forecasting Communications Services: Technology

Deployment and Customer Adoption, Lawrence K. Vanston, 2nd

Workshop on ICT and Innovation Forecasting, Paris,

May 27-28, 2015


U.S. Broadband* Households,1999 TFI Forecast

Analogy Country Range b

Radio U.S. 1922-1940 .1803Color TV U.S. 1955-1992 .1843Television U.S. 1946-1960 .3175CD Player U.S. 1986-1994 .1651VCR U.S. 1979-1994 .2337Pay cable U.S. 1973-1981 .2121

Average .2155

“b” value implied by analogies .2155

Lawrence Vanston, Forecasts for

Internet/Online Access, Presentation to 17th

Annual ICFC Conference, Denver,

Colorado, June 15-18, 1999.

*Broadband = High-speed

Digital Access


U.S. Minimum Broadband Availability & Broadband* Households, 1999 TFI Forecast

Lawrence Vanston, Forecasts for Internet/Online

Access, Presentation to 17th Annual ICFC

Conference, Denver, Colorado, June 15-18, 1999.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

Percen

tage o

f U

.S.

Ho

useh

old

s

High-speed Digital

Access Households

Minimum Availability

Cable Modem

Estimate

*Broadband = High-speed Digital Access


U.S. Availability & Adoption of Broadband (1998-2010)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ho

use

ho

lds

Year

Actual Availability(Homes Passed)

bf = .56

Subscribers

bg= .24

Source: Technology Futures, Inc.

2015

Bro

adband A

ccess

bg / bf = .42 Minimum

Availability

bg / bf = .33

Data Source: Kagan and FCC



Lawrence Vanston, Forecasts for Internet/Online

Access, Presentation to 17th Annual ICFC

Conference, Denver, Colorado, June 15-18, 1999.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of H

ou

se

ho

lds

1.5 Mb/s18Kft

6Mb/s10Kft

24 Mb/s3Kft

100 Mb/s& Above1Kft @

52 Mb/s

Digital Services

1.5 Mb/s

& Above

Maximum loop lengthsshown in italics

Nominal Range

1.5 Mb/s Less than 3 Mb/s

6 Mb/s At least 3 Mb/s and less than 10 Mb/s


100 Mb/s At least 100 Mb/s



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ho

us

eh

old

s

1.5

Mb/s

6

Mb/s

24

Mb/s

100 Mb/s

& Above

All Broadband

Households


Lawrence Vanston and Ray Hodges, Technology Forecasting

for Telecommunications, Telektronikk

(Telenor) 4.2004, pp. 32-42.

Nominal Range





VHS

Broadband


Trend in Residential Access Data Rates

M o d em an d D S L S p eed s

1500

6000

24000

0.3

1.2

2.4

9.614.4

28.8

56.0

96000

0.1

1.0

10.0

100.0

1000.0

10000.0

100000.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Year

Da

ta R

ate

(K

b/s

)

A na log M odem S peeds

(r=40% )

D S L S peeds

(r=41% )Perform ance incr eases

on average 4 t im es e very

4 years.

IBC, London, 10 October 2001London Marriott Hotel



28.814.4

2.4

0.3

1.2

9.6

56.0

50000 100000

24000

6000

1500

0

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Year

No

min

al D

ata

Ra

te (

Mb

/s)

Analog

Modems

Broadband

Performance Increases

4 times every 4 years

(42% annually)


2007

Bro

adband A

ccess


Forecasted Life-cycle for Standard DSL circa 2004


Broadband Minimum Availability24 Mb/s & Above

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Pc

t o

f H

ou

se

ho

lds


Minimum

Required

Availability,

24 Mb/s & AboveBroadband

Subscribers,

24 Mb/s & Above

Lawrence Vanston and Ray Hodges, Technology

Forecasting for Telecommunications, Telektronikk

(Telenor) 4.2004, pp. 32-42.


U.S Broadband Households, 2008 TFI Forecast

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ho

us

eh

old

s

1.5

Mb/s

6 Mb/s

24 Mb/s

100 Mb/s

& Above

All Broadband

Households


2008

Bro

adband A

ccess 50 Mb/s

Data Source: FCC. Speeds are based on DSL &

FTTL data. Excludes mobile w ireless broadband

Lawrence Vanston and Ray Hodges, Transforming

the Local Exchange Network, 4th Edition,

Technology Futures, Inc., 2008

Nominal Range






VHS

Broadband


VHS Fiber Adoption (Telco Operators)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ac

ce

ss

Lin

es


Verizon

FiOS

AT&T

U-Verse

2008

Others estimated to

lag industry avg

by ~1.5 years

Bro

adband A

ccess F

iber

Industry

Average

Leading ILECs





Industry VHS Fiber Deployment Compared to VHS Broadband Availability Requirement (Telco Operators)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ac

ce

ss

Lin

es


Industry

VHS Fiber

2008

Bro

adband A

ccess F

iber

VHS Broadband

(24 Mb/s & Above)

Required Availability





0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ho

us

eh

old

s

1.5

Mb/s6 Mb/s

24

Mb/s

50

Mb/s

All Broadband

Households


2013

Bro

adband A

ccess

100 Mb/s

& Above

Data Source: FCC. Data excludes mobile

w ireless broadband





Nominal Range






VHS

Broadband


VHS Broadband Deployment by Type (Telco Operators)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ho

us

eh

old

s


FTTP

ILECs

FTTN

ILECs

2013

Bro

adband A

ccess F

iber

Industry

Large ILECs

Middle Scenario

Rural

Areas





VHS Broadband Deployment, Middle Scenario (Telco Operators)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ho

us

eh

old

s


2013

Bro

adband A

ccess F

iber

Rural

Areas

Large ILECs

Middle Scenario

Non-

Rural

Areas

Homes Passed,

VHS Broadband

Wireless Broadband

and other VHS BB Techs





VHS Broadband Availability and Deployment (Telco Operators)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ho

us

eh

old

s


2013

Bro

adband A

ccess F

iber

Large ILECs

Middle Scenario

Homes Passed,

VHS Broadband

VHS BB

Req Avail

50 Mb/s

Req Avail

100 Mb/s

Req Avail

2 year lag

5 year lag





U.S. Population Density

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Po

pu

lati

on

Population per Sq Mile


Pop D

ensity

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

1 Sq Mile = 2.6 Sq km


Why forecasting deployment by individual network operators is difficult

• Geographic factors, including density

• Regulatory and other government factors

• Aerial vs Buried Cable

• Financial, competitive, and demographic factors


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ho

us

eh

old

s

Year

1.5Mb/s

6 Mb/s

24Mb/s

50 Mb/s

All BroadbandHouseholds


2014

Bro

adband A

ccess

100Mb/s

Data Source: FCC. Data excludes mobile wireless broadband

300 Mb/s& Above

Nominal Range*






300 Mb/s At least 300 Mb/s (includes 1 Gb/s)


*These are based on downstream, but

upstream is becoming important also.


Broadband Substitution Curves, 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ho

use

ho

lds

Year

6 Mb/s& Above

24 Mb/s


50 Mbs& Above

1.5 Mb/s& Above

2014

Bro

adband A

ccess

100 Mbs& Above

300 Mbs& Above

`

Data Source: FCC. Data excludes mobile wireless broadband

Lifecycle (t) =

Substitution (t) – Next Substitution (t)


Resulting Average Data Rate

0.010

0.100

1.000

10.000

100.000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Ave

rag

e D

ata

Ra

te (

Mb

/s)

YearSource: Technology Futures, Inc.

TrendLine

WeightedAverage

2014

Bro

adband A

ccess

Growth Rate = 33%


Caveat: The generations reflect historic trends in nominal bandwidth demand. Market forces may accelerate these without a corresponding acceleration in actual bandwidth requirements.

Example: 300 Mb/s & Above may include a lot of “pre-mature” Gigabit!



0.3

1.22.4

9.614.4

28.856.0

1,500

6,000

24,000

50,000 100,000

300,000

1,000,000

0

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

No

min

al D

ata

Ra

te (

Mb

/s)

Year

AnalogModems

Broadband

Performance Increases4 times every 4 years

(42% annually)


2014

Bro

adband A

ccess

Note: 1 Gb/s wasn’t “due” until 2018


Conclusion

• We have been able to forecast the progress of broadband in the U.S. with reasonable accuracy over a period of 20+ years via – Analysis of drivers and constraints– Adaptions of basic exponential and S-shaped

curves applied to minimal data

• This progress has occurred in the U.S. under market forces with minimal government involvement or regulation


Forecast

• The same forecasting approach is likely to work in the future

• Continued progress is likely to continue in the future if we don’t let “politics” mess it up (which we probably won’t)


Key Players

• The Service Providers (Cable TV and Telcos)

• The Application Providers (Google, Netflix, Facebook, etc.)

• The Federal Communications Commission (FCC)

• Consumers


Comparative Broadband Statistics as a Political Weapon


Highspeed and Standard Coverage by Technology - 2012

Source: FCC, Fourth International Broadband Data

Report (2015), https://www.fcc.gov/document/fourth-

international-broadband-data-report-2015


Total Highspeed Broadband Coverage by Country, Dec 2012

Source: FCC, Fourth International

Broadband Data Report (2015),

https://www.fcc.gov/document/fourth-


“Highspeed” = 25 Mb/s (U.S.)

= 30 Mb/s (Europe)


Rural Highspeed Broadband Coverage by Country, Dec 2012

Source: FCC, Fourth International

Broadband Data Report (2015),

https://www.fcc.gov/document/fourth-



Source: FCC, Fourth

International

Broadband Data

Report (2015),

https://www.fcc.gov/do

cument/fourth-

international-

broadband-data-report-

2015

Highspeed

Broadband

Coverage,

Europe

2012 Data


Source: FCC, Fourth International Broadband Data

Report (2015), https://www.fcc.gov/document/fourth-


Highspeed Broadband Coverage, U.S.

2012 Data


Average

(Weighted)

Actual

Download

Speeds,

Based on

Ookla data.


Connection Speeds by Country, Akami, 4Q13

Akamai’s State of the Internet:

Q4 2013 Report


Connection Speeds by Country, Akami, 4Q14

Akamai’s State of the Internet: Q4 2014 Report


Are these comparisons meaningful?

• Most countries “ahead” of U.S. are not comparable. Most are small, dense, and/or wealthy. Others have unique characteristics.

• Not clear that the differences imply significant competitive advantage

Similar comparisons by city, by price, etc. are also questionable

Yet loud rhetoric and major U.S. policy decisions are revolving around them


Thank you!

Larry Vanston

[email protected] +1 512 258-8898Mobile +1 512 415-5965

www.tfi.com

mailto:[email protected]

Your Bridge to the Future

(512) 258-8898 • www.tfi.com

copyright © 2015, technology futures, inc. · (telenor) 4.2004, pp. 32-42. nominal range 1.5 mb/s...

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