copyright royalty board · presentation, sirius xm has raised its guidance for subscribers (a...
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PUBLIC VERSION
82
SX Trial Ex. 229 at 29. Sirius XM made a similar presentation in 2011 shareholder presentation,
only then it said Pandora had roughly a half million subscribers. SX Trial Ex. 16 at
SXM_CRB_DIR_00021691. Indeed, Mel Karmazin testified on this point in this very
proceeding. 6/11/12 Tr. 1334:14-17 (Karmazin) (“So today Pandora has about 2 percent of their
subscribers -- they have less than a million people who are paying for their service.”). But
according to Dr. Noll, everyone else (Dr. Ordover, Sirius XM, and the Wall Street analysts
following Pandora) all are wrong that Pandora had about a million subscribers because his
review of Pandora’s financial statements shows that they had more than two million subscribers.
See 8/15/12 Tr. 3576:16-17 (Noll). Unsurprisingly, it is Dr. Noll who is wrong.
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PUBLIC VERSION
206
531. In SDARS I, the Copyright Royalty Judges found that “[a]ffording copyright users
a fair income is not the same thing as guaranteeing them a profit in excess of the fair
expectations of a highly leveraged enterprise. Nor is a fair income one which allows the SDARS
to utilize its other resources inefficiently. In both these senses, a fair income is more consistent
with reasonable market outcomes.” SDARS I, 73 Fed. Reg. at 4095.
532. As discussed in greater depth in Section VIII.C.1.g., below, Dr. Lys found that,
applying SoundExchange’s proposed royalty rates, the projected return on (total) invested capital
(ROIC) for Sirius XM would exceed the current weighted average cost of capital (WACC),
indicating Sirius XM’s ability to outperform the returns commensurate with its risk levels even
under SoundExchange’s proposed rates. Lys WDT at 34, SX Trial Ex. 80.
Lys WDT at Attachment 12, SX Trial Ex. 80. The figure above also shows that Sirius XM
outperforms the average ROIC of the radio and television broadcasting industry. Lys WDT at
34-35, SX Trial Ex. 80. The figure above was based on an assumption that Sirius XM would pay
royalties on 100% of revenue. Id. The ROIC results are even stronger if the royalty rate
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Perc
ent
Attachment 12Sirius XM and Industry
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Proposed Rates Paid on 100 Percent of Revenue
2010 - 2015
Sirius XM ROIC Industry Composite ROICSirius XM WACC Industry Composite WACC
Actual Projected
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PUBLIC VERSION
217
see also Lys WDT at 18-21, SX Trial Ex. 80. Sirius XM regularly touts this dramatic growth to
shareholders, including in the slides below from its May 2012 shareholder presentation.
Lys WRT at SX Ex. 211-RP, pp. 10, 36-38, SX Trial Ex. 240. In fact, since this shareholder
presentation, Sirius XM has raised its guidance for subscribers (a second time) to 23.5 million,
thus a measure of cash available to the company to deploy as it sees fit, including as payments to shareholders in the form of a dividend or stock repurchase, or to repay debt, without reducing investments in the business. Id. As Sirius XM explains, free cash flow is a useful metric “to determine cash available for future subscriber acquisition and capital expenditures, to repurchase or retire debt, to acquire other companies and to evaluate our ability to return capital to stockholders.” Id. Free cash flow is the primary measure used in (equity) valuation. Id.
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PUBLIC VERSION
222
562. Moreover, Dr. Lys completed the same analysis assuming that Sirius XM would
only make royalty payments on approximately ] percent of its total revenue, as has it has
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PUBLIC VERSION
238
-$400 00
-$200 00
$0 00
$200 00
$400 00
$600 00
$800 00
$1,000 00
$1,200 00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Adj
uste
d E
BIT
DA
(in
mill
ions
)
Figure 7Sirius XM
2008 Morgan Stanley Projections vs. ActualsAdjusted EBITDA
May 2008 Morgan Stanley Exhibit 4
May 2008 Morgan Stanley Exhibit 5
May 2008 Morgan Stanley Exhibit 6
May 2008 Morgan Stanley Exhibit 7
Actual Results
Notes: See Attachment 8 Notes
-$800 00
-$600 00
-$400 00
-$200 00
$0 00
$200 00
$400 00
$600 00
$800 00
$1,000 00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Free
Cas
h Fl
ow (i
n m
illio
ns)
Figure 8Sirius XM
2008 Morgan Stanley Projections vs. ActualsFree Cash Flow
May 2008 Morgan Stanley Exhibit 4
May 2008 Morgan Stanley Exhibit 5
May 2008 Morgan Stanley Exhibit 6
May 2008 Morgan Stanley Exhibit 7
Actual Results
Notes: See Attachment 9 Notes
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PUBLIC VERSION
256
Lys WRT at SX Ex. 211-RP, p. 42, SX Trial Ex. 240. David Frear has proclaimed to investors:
“The debt market has also recognized our rapidly improving prospects. Sirius XM’s benchmark
unsecured debt is trading below 6%, a dramatic improvement from the cost of 15% secured debt
with equity, we incurred just three years ago.” Lys WRT at Ex. 224-RP at 6, SX Trial Ex. 240.
Mel Karmazin agreed: “Already, our debt trades at levels that imply a far lower borrowing cost
for future issuance than what we are currently paying.” Lys WRT at Ex. 224-RP at 4, SX Trial
Ex. 240.
606. Finally, it is noteworthy that Sirius XM is already at its long-standing target
leverage ratio of 3.0x gross debt to adjusted EBITDA. SX Trial Ex. 217 at 7 (statement from
David Frear that as of September 1, 2012, Sirius XM’s leverage “will be at our 3.0x target”); see
also 6/11/12 Tr. 1408:7-12 (Karmazin) (affirming long-standing target of debt around three
times EBITDA). This is a dramatic improvement from the last proceeding. Whereas in 2009
Sirius XM had a leverage ratio of around 6.7x, it has cut that ratio in more than half to its target
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PUBLIC VERSION
264
617. In the SDARS I decision, this Court found that a rate “lower than the upper
boundary most strongly indicated by marketplace data” was warranted in part to prevent “any
undue constraint on the SDARS’ ability to successfully undertake satellite investments planned
for the license period.” SDARS I, 73 Fed. Reg. at 4097. That consideration does not apply to
the coming rate term where Sirius XM has no intention of launching any new satellites until
2018. 6/6/12 Tr. 607:9-11 (Meyer) (“[O]ur plan today is that we would begin replacing again in
the '18 time frame . . . .”). In fact, Sirius XM specifically touts to its investors that the lack of
any need to invest in satellites during the coming rate term will translate into more free cash
flow, including in its most recent shareholder meeting:
Lys WRT at SX Ex. 211-RP, p. 44, SX Trial Ex. 240. While there is always a risk that a satellite
might not survive its whole expected life span, Mr. Meyer conceded that he did not believe it
was a material risk that Sirius XM would have significant expenditures to build new satellites.
6/6/12 Tr. 607:18-22 (Meyer). Sirius XM has stated that it has multiple in-orbit spares for both
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PUBLIC VERSION
268
623. The figure above also shows that Sirius XM outperforms the average ROIC of the
radio and television broadcasting industry. Id. The latest ROIC of radio and television
broadcasting industry composite was 3.90 percent, far below Sirius XM’s ROIC of 16.35 percent
and also below the industry composite WACC of 11.54 percent. Id. The figure above was based
on an assumption that Sirius XM would pay royalties on 100% of revenue. Id. As shown in the
figure below, the ROIC results are even stronger if the royalty rate schedule is applied to [
percent of Sirius XM’s total revenues (id. at Attachment 13).
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Perc
ent
Attachment 12Sirius XM and Industry
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Proposed Rates Paid on 100 Percent of Revenue
2010 - 2015
Sirius XM ROIC Industry Composite ROICSirius XM WACC Industry Composite WACC
Actual Projected
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PUBLIC VERSION
275
“technology transition” that began “in 2007-2008 and ended by 2010” in which Internet radio
became more prominent, smartphones became more capable, and cars provided more Internet
radio integration, such that there was a “critical mass” for Internet radio by 2010. Rosenblatt
WDT at 6-8, 37-39, SXM Trial Ex. 17.
633. If Internet radio were disruptive to Sirius XM, one would expect to have seen
reductions in Sirius XM’s growth during that time. But Sirius XM’s own figures show the
opposite. Satellite radio has become substantially more, not less, popular and profitable during
Mr. Rosenblatt’s “technology transition” and has continued that trend in the years since Internet
radio reached its “critical mass” as shown in the charts below.
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PUBLIC VERSION
278
SX Trial Ex. 229 at 34. And this figure does not even include the millions of cars that have
satellite radios from the aftermarket (i.e., not factory enabled). In contrast, even David Stowell,
the only witness in this proceeding who expects Sirius XM to lose subscribers during the coming
rate term, thinks that there will only be in the range of 25 million connected cars on the road by
the end of the rate period. 8/15/12 Tr. 3620:18-3621:3 (Stowell).
639. The reason for this gap is that Sirius XM enjoys a huge head start in terms of
integration into the automobile dashboard over Internet radio, 6/8/12 Tr. 1170:13-16
(Rosenblatt), that have made it “firmly entrenched in the automobile.” 6/6/12 Tr. 536:6-9
(Meyer). Sirius XM has agreements with every major automaker to offer satellite radios as
factory- or dealer-installed equipment in new vehicles, and satellite radio is already built into 65
percent of new cars. Meyer WDT at 18, SXM Trial Ex. 5; Sidak WDT at 30, SX Trial Ex. 78.
And because satellite radios have been built into new cars since at least 2003, satellite radios are
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PUBLIC VERSION
289
Ex. 16 at SXM_CRB_DIR_00021673 (p. 7), Sirius XM experienced only a temporary slowdown
in its growth, not a substantial loss of subscribers or revenue. Indeed, Dr. Salinger’s graph
demonstrates this point quite well – showing that Sirius XM’s growth was temporarily slowed
during the recession, but picked back up immediately after, even as household income continued
to decline well after the recession ended (Salinger WRT at 21, SXM Reb. Trial Ex. 9).69
661. In fact, the evidence shows that even in 2009 when Sirius XM lost subscribers
overall (by 200,000), Sirius XM’s self-pay subscriber base actually increased for the year by
154,000. See Lys WRT at SX 231-RP, p. 35, SX Trial Ex. 240. Self-pay subscribers are those
who actually pay for the service to Sirius XM, as opposed to trial subscribers who get a free trial
69 Sirius XM is a luxury product, i.e., a discretionary purchase, not a necessity. Sidak WDT at
19, SX Trial Ex. 78. Professor Sidak demonstrated that even as household income continued to decline after the recession officially ended, Sirius XM was able to grow in spite of less disposable income for such discretionary purchases. Id. While Sirius XM’s counsel tried downplay the significance of a 7% decline in household income, “a seven percent decline in median household income is enormous” because the decline cuts hugely into the disposable income of households available for luxury products. 6/18/12 Tr. 2795:7-8 (Sidak).
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293
thrived in spite of the worst car sales in thirty years. Once new car sales return to their historical
averages (around 16-17 million) over the next few years, as automobile analysts expect, Sirius
XM’s financial performance will be even better. Sirius XM made this very argument to its
shareholders in May 2012 at its annual meeting.
SX Trial Ex. 229 at 45. Tellingly, while Professor Stowell cites credit analysts to describe a
dependency of Sirius XM on auto sales, Stowell WDT at 11, SXM Dir Trial Ex. 18, he
conveniently fails to mention that credit analysts’ optimism surrounding the automobile industry
is one of the causes of the favorable outlook for Sirius XM, as Standard & Poor’s clearly states
in a document relied upon by Professor Stowell: “We are revising our outlook on the company to
positive from stable. This reflects our view that a continued recovery in auto sales will enable
Sirius XM to maintain subscriber growth and strengthen credit measures over the intermediate
term. Lys WRT at 45, SX Trial Ex. 240.
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PUBLIC VERSION
307
revenue paid by the service would be higher than the contractual percentage-of-revenue. 6/18/12
Tr. 2861:3-13 (Ford).
693. Because SoundExchange proposed a percentage-of-revenue royalty rate, Dr. Ford
focused his analysis on the revenue-based rates in the marketplace agreements. Ford WDT at 13,
SX Trial Ex. 79; 6/18/12 Tr. 2825:7-11 (Ford). A central reason for focusing on the percentage-
of-revenue rates is that the number of plays on the PSS cannot be accurately measured,
eliminating a per-play rate as a meaningful royalty option. Ford WDT at 15, SX Trial Ex. 79;
2825:16-20 (Ford). By relying on the percentages of revenue in the contracts Dr. Ford’s analysis
was intentionally conservative, because the effective percentages of revenue actually paid under
those contracts may be higher as a result of the “greater of” structure. See 6/18/12 Tr. 2861:3-13
(Ford).
694. Based on the marketplace contracts that Dr. Ford relied on, the range of
percentage-of-revenue royalty rates fall within a range of 45% to 70%, with one observed rate at
43%. Ford WDT at 15-16, SX Trial Ex. 79. The specific ranges for each service type are as
follows:
Type of Service % of Retail Revenues
Permanent Audio Download 70%
Cellular (Ringback/Ringtone) 43% to 50%
Interactive Subscription (Portable) 50% to 60%
Interactive Subscription (Non Portable) 50% to 60%
Ford WDT at 15-16, Table 1, SX Trial Ex. 79.
695. The primary advantage of focusing on revenue-based royalty rates is that such a
royalty scales on the basis of the revenues of a given copyright user, and the user’s revenues are
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