corn march 150301

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corn march 150301

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  • PO Box 4620 Laguna Beach, CA 92652 Tel: 949-464-1051 Fax: 949-464-1081 Internet: www.HarmonicTiming.com Email: [email protected] Editor: Ernie P. Quigley

    2015 HARMONIC TIMING. INVESTING AND FUTURES TRADING OFFERS SUBSTANTIAL RISK & INVOLVES THE POTENTIAL OF LOSSES IN EXCESS OF YOUR ORIGINAL TRADING CAPITAL. IT SHOULD BE ATTEMPTED BY THOSE IN THE PROPER FINANCIAL CONDITION & WHO ARE WILLING TO ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISK INVOLVED. PAST & SIMULATED PERFORMANCE ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THIS JOURNAL MAY CONTAIN INADVERTENT TYPOGRAPHICAL ERRORS, FOR WHICH WE APOLOGIZE. THE FACTUAL INFORMATION OF THIS JOURNAL HAS BEEN OBTAINED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT IS NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS.

    _____________________________________________________________________________ MARCH 1, 2015 VOL. 24 NUMBER 3 *12 MONTHLY ISSUES & SPECIAL REPORTS & VIDEOS

    Cycle Turn Windows Beware the Ides of March! Time is the most important consideration in the analysis of stocks and commodities. When time has expired, the markets will change trend. W.D. Gann A Preview: A Cycle Turn Window is upon us! Chart 1 updates the 48 to 50 Week Interval of Ganns 84-Year Cycle measured from the historic low of October 2001 presented in Harmonic Timings 2015 Forecast. Notice that seven years after the historic low of 2001 this cycle nailed the high of June 2008. Because of its reliability, this cycle is one of my favorites. Measured from October 22, 2001 this cycle has a Cycle Turn Date projected for March 2, 2015. Table 2 shows the Cycle Forensics of the 48 to 50-Week Cycle. Ranging from $0.17 to $2.47, the average rally associated with this cycle is $0.77. The median rally is $0.55. The average decline

    Chart 1 The 48 to 50 Week Interval of Ganns 84-Year Cycle

  • Harmonic Timing of Corn Page 2 associated with this cycle is $1.92 . The Cycle Turn Window of the 48 to 50 Week Cycle is from February 26th to March 25, 2015.

    Table 1 Cycle Forensics of the 48 to 50 Week Interval of the 84-Year Cycle The mid point of the 48 to 50 Week Cycle Turn Window is March 11th. There are High Energy Days projected for Friday-Monday, March 13th-16th. With a Cycle Turn Window projected for March, I measured back from March 2015 on several of my reliable cycles to see if there was a confirmation of the Cycle Turn Window.

    Chart 2 A 10 to 13 Month Cycle Measured Back from March 2015

  • Harmonic Timing of Corn Page 3 Chart 2 shows a 10 to 13 Month Interval of Ganns 45-Year Cycle. I originally measured back from March 3, 2015. After making several adjustments, I found that measurements from October 8, 2007 aligned with a number of past highs and lows. Taking ideal measurements from the actual turning points projected a Window from February 22nd to March 28th. The 10 to 13 Month Cycle reinforces the probability of an important turning point during March 2015. The Spring High is anticipated during March. If the Spring High unfolds as anticipated, a declining trend from that high is expected. This declining trend may last into February 2016 as the 30-Year Cycle makes a low. If the cycles projected for March arrive as lows it will change things considerably. A Review: Chart 3 shows a 9 to 12 Month Interval of W.D. Ganns 20-Year Cycle measured from June 29, 2001. As can be seen on the chart, this cycle interval regularly aligns with multi-week highs and lows. Note that it aligned with the significant highs of October 2012 and June 2013. The Cycle Turn Window of the 9 to 12 Month Cycle extended from January 28 to February 19, 2015. 8-Week Momentum turned bullish during late January, indicating a cycle low was made on January 30th. This cycle low was the Winter Low, which indicates prices are moving toward their Spring High.

    Chart 3 The 9 to 12 Month Interval of Ganns 20-Year Cycle How It Turned Out Momentum Measurements of July Corn Weekly Momentum measurements are useful when they are overextended; either overbought or oversold, and trigger reversal patterns followed by confirmations. Reliable signals of an intermediate-term high or low are when different time frames; i.e., Weekly and Daily Measures of Momentum trigger

  • Harmonic Timing of Corn Page 4 reversals in close proximity. When reversals are made during an important Cycle Turn Window, Weekly Momentum is used to confirm that a cyclical turn is unfolding or has been made. When two different look back periods of the same time frame; i.e., weekly or daily trigger reversals in close proximity, it is a sign a change of trend is at hand. This is especially important when 8-Week and 13-Week Momentum trigger reversals in close proximity. This is a strong pattern that a multi-week change of trend is at hand.

    Chart 4 Weekly Momentum of July Corn Chart 4 shows measurements of 8-Week and 13-Week Momentum. As of Friday, February 27th, 8-Week Momentum was bullish and close to being overbought. 13-Week Momentum was also confirmed bullish. Weekly Momentum indicates net strength can last into mid-March +/-. Chart 5 shows measurements of 8-Day Momentum and 13-Day Momentum. 8-Day Momentum has triggered and confirmed a bullish reversal at an oversold level. 13-Day Momentum is bearish with its fast line oversold. Daily Momentum suggests net daily strength can continue. Chart 6 shows MACD Momentum of July corn. MACD Momentum triggered a slight bearish crossover this past Wednesday, February 25th. On Friday it triggered a slight bullish crossover. A bullish Zero Line Crossover will signal potential for higher prices. The lack of a strong bullish Zero-Line Crossover will indicate weakness can develop.

  • Harmonic Timing of Corn Page 5

    Chart 5 Daily Momentum of July Corn

    Chart 6 MACD Momentum of July Corn

    The Daily Pattern:

    Chart 7 shows the daily pattern of July corn from the Fall-Harvest Low of October 1, 2014 through Friday February 27, 2015.

  • Harmonic Timing of Corn Page 6 The low of October 1, 2014 is labeled as the Fall-Harvest Low. This low followed the waterfall decline from April-May 2014. The low of October 2014 completed a five-swing decline from the April-May 2014 high. Swing theory states that a five-swing pattern can be followed by an ABC correction. The labeling that is shown on Chart 7 is that an ABC correction is unfolding.

    Chart 7 The Daily Pattern of July Corn The Winter High of December 29th is the Winter High and labeled as a Swing (A) high. The Winter Low of January 30th is the Winter Low and labeled as a Swing (B) low. If this labeling is accurate, a Swing (C) rally is unfolding. July corn bottomed on February 26th at Geometric Support and turned up. The immediate target is the Ratio and Geometric Cluster Zone at $4.12 to $4.15 +/-. Convincing closes above $4.15 will indicate there is potential to reach $4.21 to $4.23 +/-. If there are changes to this analysis, it will be reported first in the twice-weekly Updates.

    The Pattern of the Four Seasons Chart 8 shows the daily pattern of Cash Corn at Central Illinois from the Fall-Harvest Low of November 18, 2013. The chart shows the Annual High of April 29, 2014 at $4.98 . It shows the Fall-Harvest Low of October 1, 2014, which was the Annual Low of 2014. From the Fall-Harvest Low of October 1, 2014 Cash Corn at Central Illinois rallied to their Winter High of December 26, 2014 at $3.90 . Table 2 shows the data since 1986 of the rallies from the Winter Lows to the Spring Highs. The average rally has lasted for 75 calendar days and has rallied close to 20%. I isolated five prior bear markets to see what the percent increase in prices were:

  • Harmonic Timing of Corn Page 7

    Chart 8 Cash Corn at Central Illinois Pattern of the Four Seasons

    Table 2 Historical Data of the Rallies from the Winter Lows to the Spring Highs

  • Harmonic Timing of Corn Page 8 The rally from April 1, 1977 to April 22, 1977 was 4.4%. The rally from March 3, 1978 to April 14, 1978 was 17.2%. The rally from March 7, 1986 to April 4, 1986 was 7.0%. The rally from February 26, 1999 to April 1, 1999 was 12.1%. The rally from March 2009 to April 3, 2009 was 16.5%. These five rallies averaged 11.4%. The median rally was 12.1%. If an average rally from data since 1986 unfolds it will be approximately 20%. If a bear market is unfolding the average rally will be approximately 11% to 12%. The TREND of Corn is Bearish Was the high for the 2014-15 Marketing Year in July corn made on December 29th at the Winter High? (This high was made at $4.31 . 144 x 3 = 432) Chart 9 shows the pattern of July corn. The window at the bottom shows its Accumulation Distribution Index (ADI) and a moving average. When the ADI is confirmed above its moving average, the TREND is bullish. When the ADI is confirmed below its moving average, the TREND is bearish.

    Chart 9 The Accumulation-Distribution Index of July Corn Notice what followed in October 2014 when the Index rallied above the moving average. This positive crossing was a timely indication that a bullish trend was developing. This bullish trend lasted for months. During January 2015, the Accumulation Distribution Index (ADI) crossed below its moving average. This was a bearish development. During February, the ADI declined further below its moving average. This was a confirmation that the TREND of corn prices had turned bearish.

  • Harmonic Timing of Corn Page 9 The bearish TREND of corn indicates that the rally from the Winter Low to the Spring High may be limited. The Accumulation Distribution Index cautions that a rally to the Spring High may not reach as high as the Winter High of $4.31 . Chart 10 shows the one-sixth divisions of Ganns 84-Year Cycle. Until October 2001, these divisions traced out a sawtooth high-low pattern. During October 2001, what was anticipated to be a major high was a major low. The odds favor the turning point projected for 2016 will revert to the prior high-low pattern and be a low. This indicates the monthly trend will decline into 2016.

    Chart 10 The One-Sixth Intervals of Ganns 84-Year Cycle The Commitment of Traders Data The latest Commitment of Traders Data is as of Tuesday February 24th and released on Friday, February 27, 2015. On February 24th the Commercial-Hedgers had a net short position of 14,647 futures and option contracts. This is considerably less than the position a month ago on January 27th of being short 70,286 futures and option contracts. The Commercials are hedging less and less of their inventory. IF the trend continues they will develop a net long position in the weeks ahead. This will be an Alert to be prepared for a multi-week rally.

  • Harmonic Timing of Corn Page 10

    Chart 11 The Commnitment of Traders Data for Corn

    Corn Newsletter Subscription: Hardcopy $324 Paid Annually See www.HarmonicTiming.com for Online and Special Bundled Prices

    Harmonic Timing of Corn newsletter is published close to the 1st of each month. No solicitation is made here for individuals to buy or sell futures contracts.

    Harmonic Timing Newsletters, P.O. Box 4620, Laguna Beach CA. 92652 - Published since 1993.