corn situation and outlook

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Corn Situation and Outlook Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007

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Corn Situation and Outlook. Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007. Corn Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1992-2007. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Price, 1992-2007. U.S. & Foreign Corn Ending Stocks 1996-2007. Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Corn Situation and Outlook

Corn Situation and Outlook

Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007

Page 2: Corn Situation and Outlook

Corn Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1992-2007

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mill

ion

bu

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu

Page 3: Corn Situation and Outlook

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Price, 1992-2007

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mill

ion

bu

$1.50

$1.70

$1.90

$2.10

$2.30

$2.50

$2.70

$2.90

$3.10

$3.30

$3.50

Ending Stocks Price/Bu

Page 4: Corn Situation and Outlook

U.S. & Foreign Corn Ending Stocks 1996-2007

010002000300040005000600070008000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

Mill

ion

bu

sh

els

Foreign Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks

Page 5: Corn Situation and Outlook

Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Corn ----------Supply/Demand ----------

Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low

Beginning Stocks(MB) 1137 1137 1137Acres (MPA) 90.9 92.9 94.9Acres (MHA) 83.6 85.4 87.2Yield 142.0 150.3 158.4Supply(M. Bu) 13018 13992 14971 Use:

Feed 5700Ethanol 3400 Food, Seed 1390 Exports 2000

Ending Stocks 967 1502 2037Projected Price $3.50 $3.00 $2.50

Page 6: Corn Situation and Outlook

Wheat Situation and Outlook

Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007

Page 7: Corn Situation and Outlook

Wheat Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2007

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mill

ion

Bu

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu

Page 8: Corn Situation and Outlook

U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2007

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mill

ion

Bu

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

Ending Stocks Price/Bu

Page 9: Corn Situation and Outlook

U.S. & Foreign Wheat Ending Stocks, 1996-2007

010002000300040005000600070008000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

Mill

ion

bu

sh

els

Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks

Page 10: Corn Situation and Outlook

Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Wheat ----------Supply/Demand ----------

Low/High Exp/Exp High/LowBeginning Stocks(MB) 456 456 456Acres (M. A. Planted) 60.0 60.5 61.0Acres (M.A. Harvested) 52.1 52.5 52.9Yield 39.9 40.7 41.5Supply(M. Bu) 2633 2694 2753 Use:

Food, Seed 1011 Feed, Resid 215 Exports 1050

Ending Stocks 359 418 476Projected Price $5.55 $5.20 $4.85

Page 11: Corn Situation and Outlook

Soybean Situation and Outlook

Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007

Page 12: Corn Situation and Outlook

Soybean Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2007

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mill

ion

Bu

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu

Page 13: Corn Situation and Outlook

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2007

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mill

ion

Bu

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

$8.00

Ending Stocks Price/Bu

Page 14: Corn Situation and Outlook

U.S. & Foreign Soybean Ending Stocks, 1996-2007

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

Mil

lio

n B

ush

els

Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks

Page 15: Corn Situation and Outlook

U.S. & Foreign Soybean Meal Ending Stocks, 1997-2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

Mil

lio

n M

etr

ic T

on

s

Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks

Page 16: Corn Situation and Outlook

U.S. & Foreign Soybean Oil Ending Stocks, 1997-2007

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

Mill

ion

Me

tric

To

ns

Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks

Page 17: Corn Situation and Outlook

Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Soybeans ----------Supply/Demand ----------

Low/High Exp/Exp High/LowBeginning Stocks(MB) 600 600 600Acres (MA Planted) 62.6 64.1 65.6Acres (MA Harvested) 61.8 63.3 64.8Yield 39.9 41.5 43.0Supply(M. Bu) 3070 3229 3390 Use:

Crushing 1800 Exports 1020 Seed, Feed 164

Ending Stocks 143 245 347Projected Price $8.50 $7.50 $6.50

Page 18: Corn Situation and Outlook

Grain Sorghum Situation and Outlook

Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007

Page 19: Corn Situation and Outlook

Sorghum Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1996-2007

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mill

ion

Bu

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu

Page 20: Corn Situation and Outlook

U.S. Sorghum Ending Stocks and Price, 1996-2007

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mill

ion

Bu

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

Ending Stocks Price/Bu

Page 21: Corn Situation and Outlook

Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008Sorghum ----------Supply/Demand ----------

Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low

Beginning Stocks(MB) 38.0 38.0 38.0

Acres (M. P. A.) 7.3 7.8 8.3

Supply(M. Bu) 407 468 527

Use:

Food & Seed 65

Exports 160

Feed 180

Ending Stocks 31 63 94

Projected Price $3.25 $2.85 $2.45

Page 22: Corn Situation and Outlook

Cotton Situation and Outlook

Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007

Page 23: Corn Situation and Outlook

Cotton Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2007

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Th

ou

san

d B

ales

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Production Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)

Page 24: Corn Situation and Outlook

U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2007

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Th

ou

san

d B

ales

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)

Page 25: Corn Situation and Outlook

U.S. & Foreign Cotton Ending Stocks, 1997-2007

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Year

Th

ou

san

d B

ales

Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks

Page 26: Corn Situation and Outlook

Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Cotton ----------Supply/Demand ----------

Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low

Beginning Stocks(MB) 9.8 9.8 9.8Acres (M. P. A.) 10.6 11.1 11.6Acres (MA Harvested) 10.0 10.5 11.0Yield 762 800 835Supply(MB) 25.7 27.3 28.9 Use:

Domestic 4.4 Exports 17.0

Ending Stocks 4.0 5.9 7.8Projected Price/cwt

Page 27: Corn Situation and Outlook

What Could Change The Outlook?

South America Plant Mix Non-Farm Economic Conditions in U.S.,

World – Oil Supplies, War Exchange Rates China Weather