cosmo-sreps priority project
DESCRIPTION
COSMO-SREPS Priority Project. C. Marsigli ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy. COSMO-SREPS. aim: to develop a limited-area ensemble system for the short-range considering also small scale uncertainty. boundary conditions. initial conditions. LAM ensemble. model (LM): schemes, parameters, - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
COSMO-SREPS Priority Project
C. Marsigli
ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy
model (LM): schemes, parameters,
surface forcings
COSMO-SREPS
i.c. and b.c. perturbations -> INM multi-model
LM perturbations
aim: to develop a limited-area ensemble system for the short-range considering also small scale uncertainty
LAM ensemble
boundary conditions
initial conditions
people involved in the PP
Involved COSMO people:
• Marsigli, Montani, Paccagnella (ARPA-SIM)
+ collaborations:
• S. Theis (DWD) – discussion on the methodologies and sharing of perturbation techniques
• U. Schaettler (DWD) – new version of LM developed to move from the code to a namelist a number of tuneable parameters
• WG2 and WG3 people has provided a parameter list
Non-COSMO:
• INM (Spain): J. Garcia-Moya, J. Simarro, …
Task Suggested scientists(optional)
% FTE per year
start milestones date
0: Preliminary actions for the system set-up
people external to the project
0 September 2005 - LM code to LM by December 2005- INM initial and boundary conditions at ECMWF by June 2006
June 2006
1: Definition of the methodologies to perturb model trajectories
external collaboration of S. Theis
30% January 2006 - model parameters to be perturbed by December 2006
December 2006
2: Definition of the methodologies to perturb initial condition
40% October 2006 - ETKF implemented by the end of 2007
June 2008
3: System set-up external collaborations of INM and U. Schaettler
5% May 2006 - data transfer by INM for the first tests- 1-month test set-up by October 2006 - set-up of e-suite in 2007
June 2007
4: Test on case studies
50% June 2006 - analysis of the impact of the different perturbations
December 2006
5: Test on a regular basis
40% January 2007 December 2007
6: Verification 20% January 2007 October 2008
ic and bc: multi-model approach a MUlti-Model MUlti-Boundaries ensemble is operational at INM (Spain): 4 different limited-area models (HIRLAM, HRM, MM5, UM) are nested on 5 different global models (IFS, GME, AVN, UM, LM) => 20 members ensemble (25 km horizontal resolution)
LM has been added in May 2006
IFS LM 25km
GME LM 25km
AVN LM 25 km
Courtesy of INM
UM LM 25 km
COSMO-SREPS (Short-Range Ensemble
Prediction System) short range (up to 3 days)
16 LM runs at 10 km
LM at 25 km on IFS
IFS – ECMWF globalb
y I
NM
Sp
ain LM at 25 km on GME
GME – DWD global
LM at 25 km on UM
UM – UKMO global
LM at 25 km on NCEP
AVN – NCEP global
P1: conv. scheme (KF)
P2: turb. parameter 1
P3: time filter
P4: turb. parameter 2
Parameter listparameter name parameter description range default value usedPHYSICS
crsminminimal stomata resistance (part of 'terra'; sensible for much vegetation and not too dry soil [50,200] s/m 150 50, 200
c_soilsurface area index of the evaporating soil (part of 'terra'; sensible for less vegetation and not too dry soil ]0,c:lnd[ 0, clnd (=2)
plcovplant cover (part of 'terra' and 'turbtran'; controls transpiration) [0,1]
laileave area index (part of 'terra' and 'turbtran', controls transpiration) [0,10]
rlam_heat scaling factor of the laminar layer depth [0.1,50] 0.1, 50
c_difffactor for turbulent diffusion of TKE (may influence mixing at an inversion top) [0,2] 1 0, 2
pat_lenlength scale of thermal surface patterns (influences mixing in the stable stratified atmosphere) [0,10000] m 500 0, 10000
tur_lenmaximal turbulent length scale (influences mainly stratospheric mixing) [100,1000] m 1000
rat_canscaling parameter for the diagnosed canopy height (rather big influence on Td2m, but will be obsolete shortly) [0,10]
z0m_diaroughness length at a synop station (rather big influence on V10m, will very likely be obsolete in future) [0.05,0.5] m
NUMERICSl2tls 2-time-level scheme T or F false trueepsass Asselin filter coefficient [0.05,0.2] 0.15 0.05
13 15 UTC
47N
44N
6W 9W
13 18 UTC
47N
45N
7W
10W
14 00 UTC
46.5N
45N
10.5W 13W
14 06 UTC
13 May 12-18 UTC
COSMO-SREPS PROB. MAPS fc. range 12-18 18-24 24-30 h
COSMO-LEPS PROB. MAPS fc. range 0-6 6-12 12-18 h
> 10mm/6h
> 10mm/6h
10
30
60
90
100
COSMO-SREPS fc. range 24-30
14 May 0-6 UTC
ecmwf
gme
avn
ukmo
ensemble spread
12/05
12UTC
13/05
00UTC
13/05
12UTC
member behaviour (“father”)
intra-group distance
Task 0. Preliminary actions for the system set-up
Formal agreement between COSMO and INM:
• use of LM by INM: support has been given to INM -> done
• provision of the forecasts to COSMO: SREPS output available
From May 2006 3-hourly initial and boundary conditions for COSMO-SREPS are provided daily at ECMWF on ECFS: 4 LM runs at 25 km on an Euro-Atlantic area, nested on 4 different global models (IFS,GME,AVN,UKMO) interpolated with int2lm at 10 km over the COSMO-LEPS area
Task 1. Definition of the methodologies to perturb model trajectories
• Schemes (physics and numerics): Some schemes have been selected to be perturbed: Tiedtke, Tiedtke with cape closure, Kain-Fritsch, 2-time-level, Runge-Kutta
• Parameters:
• a first selection of the parameters has been done (analysis of few case studies)
• the new tuneable parameters will be tested (provided by external collaborations of WG3 people + Susanne Theis)
• Surface forcings: LM surface fields -> interest of Luca Bonaventura to test a technique for the perturbation of surface parameters -> to be developed
Task 2. Definition of the methodologies to perturb initial conditions: it will start in October with a visit to Bologna of Neill Bowler from UKMO.
Task 3. System set-up:• Data transfer between INM and ECMWF: done
• Adaptation of source code to give the possibility to use tuneable or random parameters: the new model version model will include a new namelist file in which many physical parameters can be set (Uli Schaettler, WG6) -> done
• Extracting LM frames and nesting of LM on LM frames (WG6): to be discussed
• Discussion on computer resources: during 2006 SP SPITLAEF is being used. A new Special Project submitted to ECMWF for the developing phase for 2007 (SPITFEAR). Collection of COSMO units to be discussed.
• Establish the link SIR-COSMO SREPS: this meeting
• Possibility to have a COSMO originating centre in the GRIB coding: to be discussed (possible link with TIGGE)
Task 4. Test on case studies
Test of SREPS prototype on real-time case studies and comparison with COSMO-LEPS and “model perturbed COSMO-LEPS”:
• run of COSMO-SREPS for 1 case study to test that the chain from INM to COSMO-SREPS is working -> done
• run of COSMO-SREPS with model perturbations only for 1 month of Autumn 2006:
• statistical analysis of the system
• provide b.c. for EELMK tests
• comparison with COSMO-LEPS and PEPS
Plans for 2006-2007Task 5. Test on a regular basis
• Task 5.1 selection of the methodology to generate the perturbations :
• parameters: based on the analysis of the results of the 1-month test period
• development of the i.c. perturbations technique
• Task 5.2 selection of the testing period:
• possible link with MAP D-PHASE (summer-autumn 2007)
• availability of observations (-> WG5)
• Task 5.3 investigation on computer resources:
• COSMO units available?
• Task 5.4 INM data availability
Plans for 2006-2008
Task 6. Verification
• Task 6.1 selection of the verification methodologies (with WG5)
• Task 6.2 selection of the reference data-set: COSMO observations, VERA analyses (MAP D-PHASE),…
• Task 6.3 computation of the score: comparison with COSMO-LEPS (and/or perturbed COSMO-LEPS?) and PEPS
+ EELMK and SIR links