cost-competitive renewable power generation: potential across south east europe
TRANSCRIPT
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Contracting Parties of the Energy Community:• Albania • Bosnia and Herzegovina• Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia • Kosovo• Moldova• Montenegro• Serbia• Ukraine
Members of the European Union: • Bulgaria• Croatia• Romania• Slovenia
Geographic scope of the study
• Assessment of the overall renewable electricity potential in the region
• Identification of cost-competitive RE potential – focus on wind & solar PV
• Input to decision making in the upcoming process of undertaking new commitments and developing long-term strategies for renewables.
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Objectives
Cost-competitive potential• LCOE within the ranges of the fossil-fuel supply options.
• Level of cost-competitive potential today, 2030 and 2050
• Sensitivity analysis for cost of capital (WACC)
• Energy Community 2020 Renewable Energy targets
• Alignment with 2030 Energy and Climate framework of the EU
• Increase in electricity demand (as per the National Renewable Energy Action Plans) and ongoing discussion on the required power capacity additions in the region
• Importance of hydropower
• Sharp cost reduction in solar PV and wind technologies
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Context
Shares of Renewable Power Capacity in SEE Total: 36 GW (2015)
Solar: 3.4791 GW10%
Wind: 4.9247 GW14%
Hydro: 27.3065 GW76%
Biomass: 0.3374 GW1%
Resource assessmentSolar PV and Wind suitability analysis
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Suitable locations for Wind investments in SEE
Suitable locations for Solar PV investments in SEE
Biomass, Hydropower, Geothermal energy
National energy strategies, NREAPs, Academic studies – validated by the energy
experts from the respective countries
Assess this map at: http://irena.masdar.ac.ae?map=2411
IRENA Renewable Costing AllianceIRENA Renewable Cost Database
based on data from over 9,000 utility-scale RE projects
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Cost analysisDramatic decline in Solar PV & Wind costs
Significant cost reductions since 2009:• Solar PV module costs by 80%• Wind turbine prices by a third
Potential for further reduction by 2025:• Solar PV - 59%• Onshore wind - 26% • Offshore wind - 35%
2016
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 2600
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
Low cost of capital scenario
Medium cost of capital scenario
High cost of capital scenario
LCOE for CCGT (exclud-ing CO2)
LCOE for CCGT (includ-ing CO2)
LCOE Wind (EUR/MWh)
Win
d Po
tenti
al (G
W)
2030
SEE cost-competitive Wind potential
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 2600
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
550000
600000
LCOE Wind (EUR/MWh)
Win
d Po
tenti
al (G
W)
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SEE cost-competitive Solar PV potential
40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 2800
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
Low cost of capital scenario
Medium cost of cap-ital scenario
High cost of capital scenario
LCOE for CCGT (excluding CO2)
LCOE for CCGT (including CO2)
LCOE PV (EUR/MWh)
PV p
oten
tial (
GW)
40 60 80 100 120 1400
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
LCOE PV (EUR/MWh)
PV p
oten
tial (
GW)
2016 2030
8.2 GW Gap to achieve cumulative RE deployment target for 2020 (based on NREAPs)
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NREAP targets vs.Cost-competitive additional potential
Based on: Medium cost of capital scenario
Solar PV: 5.23 GW4%
Wind: 98.15 GW
77%
Hy-dropower
: 18.12 GW14%
Biomass: 4.7 GW4%
Geothermal 0.69 GW1%
PV Wind0
100
200
300
400
500
600
5.2 GW 98.2 GW111.5 GW
405.3 GW
20302016
127 GW of Renewable Energy today 620 GW of Wind and Solar PV by 2030
Eliminate administrative barriers and improve market access
Create attractive and consistent RE support schemes
Improve PPA structure
Address grid integration challenges
Enhance skills and capacities
Facilitate access to finance
Impact of cost of capital
Cumulative additional cost-competitive renewable RE potential for SEE - 2016
PV Wind Hydropower Biomass Geothermal0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Series6 Series5 Hydro
Renewable energy techologies
Pote
ntial
[GW
]
Thank you
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