cost-effective ship nox control - iiasa ship nox control christer Ågren ... heart disease . ......
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Cost-effective ship NOx control
Christer Ågren AirClim
2017-02-16
Ship emissions occur close to land Globally, 70-80% of ship emissions take place within 400 km from shore
In the North Sea, 90% of emissions take place within 90 km from shore
Sources: ICCT (2007), PBL (2012)
EU28 land-based vs. shipping around Europe 1990-2015 (kton)
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
EU-28 Shipping
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
EU-28 Shipping
SO2 NOx
Land-based NOx cut by 58% 1990-2014 Land-based SO2 cut by 88% 1990-2014
50,000 deaths/year in Europe
Source: J. Brandt et al, CEEH, Denmark (2011)
In Europe, emissions from international shipping is estimated to cause some 50,000 premature deaths per year due to PM2.5
Tiny airborne particles (PM2.5) cause premature death through lung and heart disease
Ship emissions are a major cause of eutrophication and acidification
NOx-N Norway 28% Sweden 26% Denmark 26% Portugal 24% Ireland 23% Netherl. 19% Finland 18% Spain 18% UK 18% Italy 15%
SO2-S Portugal 26% Denmark 24% Netherl. 22% Ireland 20% Norway 19% Spain 18% Sweden 17% France 15% UK 13% Italy 13%
Source: EMEP (2015)
Examples of countries with a high proportion of air pollutant fallout from ship emissions (2013)
International Maritime Organisation (IMO) Revised MARPOL Annex VI (adopted 2008) • Entry into force 1 July 2010 • New global sulphur limits: - 3.50% 1/1 2012 - 0.50% 1/1 2020 • New SOx-ECA sulphur limits*: - 1.00% 1/7 2010 - 0.10% 1/1 2015 • Stricter NOx standards for new ship engines - Tier II standard (-16-22%) 1/1 2011 - Tier III standard (-80%) in NOx-ECAs only (*Note: Alternatives such as scrubbers or LNG allowed.)
Sulphur content of transport fuels ppm
0.001%
Global average: 2.5% 35000
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IMO globalmarine fuel limit
from 2012
Marine fuel oilcurrent global
average
IMO globalmarine fuel limit
from 2020
IMO SECA fuellimit from 2015
Road transportand inland
shipping fuellimit
Global 0.5% sulphur cap from 2020
Based on IMO’s fuel oil availability study, in October 2016 IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee decided that the 0.5% sulphur global cap shall apply as from 2020. This will:
• Cut global ship SO2 emissions by 8.5 - 9 million tonnes/year
• Prevent more than 100,000 annual premature deaths from PM2.5
Source: IMO MEPC 70/INF.34 (2016)
Health benefits
Year Avoided premature deaths
2020 107,800
2021 110,400
2022 113,100
2023 115,700
2024 118,300
Sum: 569,600
EU28 land-based vs. shipping around Europe 2010-2030 (kton) SO2 NOx
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EU-28 Shipping
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EU-28 Shipping
NEC
NEC
NEC NEC
IMO NOx-standards for new ship engines
Compare to EU-standards (Euro VI) for new heavy duty diesel engines in trucks and buses set at 0.4 g/kWh as from 2013 - down from 8 g/kWh from 1992 (Euro I).
2000: 17-9,8 g/kWh
2011: 14,4-7,7 g/kWh
2016 (NOx-ECAs): 3,4-2 g/kWh
NOx-abatement measures
Some of the main NOx-abatement options for ships:
• Exhaust gas after-treatment (e.g. SCR)
• Combustion modifications (e.g. EGR)
• Fuel switch (e.g. to LNG or methanol)
• Reduced fuel consumption (e.g. lower speed)
Reducing NOx by NECA
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2005
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BAU NECA
Source: IVL/CE Delft (2016)
kton
NOx emissions in the Baltic Sea and North Sea with/without NECA from 2021
Reducing NOx by NECA + Levy & Fund kton
Source: IVL/CE Delft (2016)
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2005 2010 2015 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2035 2037 2038 2039 2040
BAU NECA Levy&Fund
CBA for NECA in Baltic Sea & North Sea
171
298
429
563
VSL [VALUEVÄRDE]
VSL [VALUEVÄRDE]
VSL [VALUEVÄRDE]
VSL [VALUEVÄRDE]
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NECA: Benefits as VSL vs. costs (central valuation)
Benefits
CostsVOLY 621
VOLY 884
VOLY 1147
Source: IVL (to be published in March 2017)
€ million
VOLY 351
CBA for NECA + Levy&Fund
941
866
756
723
VSL [VALUEVÄRDE]
VSL [VALUEVÄRDE]
VSL [VALUEVÄRDE]
VSL [VALUEVÄRDE]
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
2025
2030
2035
2040
NECA + Levy & Fund: Benefits as VSL vs. costs (central valuation)
Benefits Costs
VOLY 1423
VOLY 1452
€ million
VOLY 1395
VOLY 1490
Source: IVL (to be published in March 2017)
Some conclusions from the studies • Baseline (BAU) projection up to 2040 indicates a slight NOx
reduction (-14% 2015-2040) (due “optimistic” assumptions on improved efficiency?)
• A NECA would significantly cut NOx in the longer term (-63% 2015-2040), but not so much in the near term (-37% 2015-2030)
• Significant short-term reductions are possible through the use of economic instruments, e.g. Levy & Fund (-72% 2015-2030)
• A Levy & Fund can cut NOx by around 500,000 tonnes/yr throughout the 2020s. This equals current total annual land-based emissions from SE, DK, FI and NO combined.
Sources: IVL/CE Delft (2016) + IVL (2017)
Ship NOx CBA summary table
Accumulated results 2021-2040 (central valuation) NECA NECA + Levy & Fund
NOx emission reduction
4.5 million tonnes
9.9 million tonnes
Abatement costs
€ 6.2 billion
€ 16.5 billion
Health benefits (VOLY)
€ 12.7 billion
€ 28.3 billion
Net benefits (VOLY)
€ 6.6 billion
€ 11.8 billion
Source: IVL (to be published in March 2017)
Measures to cut ship emissions
• Improved emissions monitoring and compliance control
• Lowered speeds • Emission standards for PM • Develop and adopt an EU marine
fuels quality directive
• Designate all European seas as full Emission Control Areas
• Emission charges to cut NOx (and PM?) from existing ships
• Enforce global 0.5% sulphur standard from 2020
NOx
