cotton - downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu · prices. the a-index and u.s. spot price have risen...

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Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

State Reserve Impacts China Import Demand

For most cotton spinning countries, import demand is largely driven by the supply gap between production and consumption. However, China has been an outlier. The country’s trade has shown little correlation between its imports and its supply gap over the last decade; for example, 2011/12 imports doubled and reached nearly 25 million bales while the supply gap fell by 75 percent to 4 million bales. The disconnect between the supply gap and import volume was due to the fluctuations the level of China’s State Reserve (SR) – the SR absorbs surplus domestic cotton to keep internal prices from falling too low, and also purchases foreign cotton at times. The SR also supplies the domestic market if prices and supplies outside of China are such that internal prices rise too high relative to world prices.

Since China’s accession to the WTO in 2001, the SR has bought or sold nearly 200 million bales of cotton; SR holdings have changed by up to nearly 20 million bales in a single year. The reasons for SR activity have been both external and internal – external being the global price shocks of 2008 and 2010, while the policy of shifting production to

Xinjiang served internal purposes. Year-to-year SR activity has had a major impact on China’s imports, as some years cotton released from the reserve reduced demand for imported cotton and in other years purchases bolstered import demand.

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service July 2020

Cotton: World Markets and Trade

Anticipating the level of SR activity is important in predicting China’s import demand. Following annual auctions of the world’s largest cotton reserves in the years starting after 2013/14, USDA now estimates that China’s State Reserve has reached the government’s preferred level. Nearly 10 million bales are estimated to remain – a level consistent with the government’s objectives and down from nearly 60 million bales in March 2014. USDA predicts a strategy of rotation going forward and minimal net changes in stock levels, with the State Reserve auctioning old-crop and replacing with both new-crop domestic cotton and imports. This would imply that for the first time in over a decade that import demand in China will largely be based on the supply gap.

COVID-19 has sharply reduced China’s spinning activity and therefore import demand in 2019/20 and to some extent into 2020/21. Looking ahead, demand is expected to recover from the COVID-19 impacts. Production in the inland areas is likely to continue its decline, while area expansion in Xinjiang is limited and the USDA Baseline forecasts total production to grow modestly. If China’s consumption increases at or near the expected global rate of growth, then import demand will still witness steady growth, albeit somewhat limited.

Overview:

2020/21 For 2020/21, the July forecast shows lower production and ending stocks. Production is lowered for the United States, Turkey, and Tanzania, more than offsetting a small rise in Pakistan. Consumption is lowered only 100,00 bales, and global trade is mostly unchanged. The U.S. forecast shows lower production, exports and ending stocks; the season-average farm price is raised 2 cents to 59 cents per pound. For current prices received by farmers click here; NASS farm price

2019/20

For 2019/20, the July forecast shows slightly higher ending stocks due to lower consumption. The U.S. forecast shows higher exports and the U.S. season-average farm price is unchanged at 59 cents per pound.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 July 2020Global Market Analysis

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/c821gj76b?locale=en

Prices

The A-index and U.S. spot price have risen for the second consecutive month but remain below the season average. June’s Acreage report reported lower-than-expected plantings for 2020/21, helping prop prices up from the previous month. Also, crop conditions in the largest producing state, Texas, are very poor to poor (over one-third) according to USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report as minimal rainfall and severe heat have affected the crop. Less planted acres and recent weather conditions are expected to support ICE prices in the short term.

For more information on U.S. spot price click here; AMS Cotton Market News

1,000 Bales (480-lb)

Jul-20, 67.8

Jul-20, 56.030

50

70

90

110

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20ce

nts/

lb.

Monthly Average Cotton Prices

A-Index U.S. Spot Price

2020/21 TRADE OUTLOOK

Major Importers:

Previous Current Change Reason

WORLD 42,818 41,842 -976

Pakistan 4,500 3,900 -600 Larger crop

Mexico 900 650 -250 Lower-than-expected consumption

Turkey 4,200 4,100 -100 Higher carryin reduces import demand

Major Exporters:


WORLD 42,900 41,805 -1,095

United States 16,000 15,000 -1,000 Lower crop


https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/8336h188j

http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/cotton

2019/20 TRADE OUTLOOK

Major Importers:


WORLD 39,678 39,995 317

Pakistan 3,300 3,600 300 Stronger-than-expected import pace

Turkey 4,000 4,300 300 Stronger-than-expected import pace

China 7,500 7,250 -250 Weaker-than-expected import pace

Bangladesh 6,500 6,700 200 Stronger-than-expected import pace

India 2,200 2,400 200 Stronger-than-expected import pace

Major Exporters:


WORLD 39,813 39,983 170

United States 15,000 15,200 200 Higher-than-expected seasonal

shipments

Brazil 8600 8750 150 Stronger-than-expected export pace

Cote d'Ivoire 725 625 -100 Weaker-than-expected export pace

The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m.

FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7 Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports):

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx Export Sales Report:

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/ Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports):

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx


https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/ Economic Research Service:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops National Agricultural Statistics Service:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Questions may be directed to:

James Johnson (202) 690-1546 ([email protected])

Graham Soley (202) 772-4235 ([email protected])


http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)

Country Mktg Year Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Argentina

75000-750000 2019/20

50000-250-5075-25 2020/21

Austria

0-50-50-5000 2019/20

Bangladesh

2000000200000 2019/20

2000000002000 2020/21

Brazil

-170000150-20000 2019/20

-170000000-1700 2020/21

Bulgaria

0-100-100-10000 2019/20

China

-2500000-250000 2019/20

-250000000-2500 2020/21

Colombia

0000-5-5000 2019/20

Costa Rica

3-100-100-7000 2019/20

3-50-50-5030 2020/21

Cote d'Ivoire

100000-1000000 2019/20

1000000001000 2020/21

Ecuador

-5-100-100-15000 2019/20

-150000-100-50 2020/21

El Salvador

-20-300-300-50000 2019/20

-10-100-10000-200 2020/21

Greece

-1500000-150-5 2020/21

Honduras


Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued)

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)


Harvested

Beginning

Stocks


Cons.

Ending

Stocks

180809000 2019/20

01001009010 2020/21

India

2000000200000 2019/20

2000000002000 2020/21

Italy

-100000-10000 2019/20

-300000-200-100 2020/21

Malaysia

-3000000-300000 2019/20

-300000000-3000 2020/21

Mexico

-7150050210000 2018/19

154-2000-2000250-710 2019/20

-96-1000-1000-250-100154-5 2020/21

Pakistan

325000-25300000 2019/20

-750000-600200325200 2020/21

Philippines

0-350-350-35000 2019/20

Portugal

-100000-10000 2019/20

-10000000-100 2020/21

South Africa

-900000-900 2019/20

-39000-200-50-9-10 2020/21

Tanzania

-115-100-10-500-1750-130 2020/21

Turkey

27500025300000 2019/20

-1250000-100-300275-50 2020/21

United States

0-2-2020000 2017/18

0-74-740740000 2018/19


Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued)

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)


Harvested

Beginning

Stocks


Cons.

Ending

Stocks

-2000002000000 2019/20

-1,200000-1,0000-2,000-200-447 2020/21

World

World

0-2-2020000 2017/18

-71-24-7450950000 2018/19

359-2920-292170317-9-710 2019/20

-1,897-1150-115-1,095-976-2,490359-472 2020/21


Table 01 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1)

(1000 MT)

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Jun

2020/21

Jul

2020/21

Production none

5,879 India 6,314 5,617 6,641 6,205 6,205

4,953 China 5,987 6,042 5,933 5,770 5,770

3,738 United States 4,555 3,999 4,336 4,246 3,810

1,528 Brazil 2,007 2,830 2,874 2,613 2,613

1,676 Pakistan 1,785 1,655 1,350 1,372 1,415

811 Uzbekistan 840 713 762 708 708

697 Turkey 871 816 751 718 653

3,943 Other 4,628 4,161 4,125 4,221 4,136

23,226 Total 26,989 25,834 26,772 25,852 25,310

USE Dom. Consumption none

8,382 China 8,927 8,600 7,185 8,056 8,056

5,302 India 5,258 5,225 4,355 5,008 5,008

2,243 Pakistan 2,373 2,330 1,960 2,243 2,243

1,481 Bangladesh 1,633 1,611 1,350 1,524 1,524

1,426 Turkey 1,622 1,502 1,393 1,502 1,502

1,176 Vietnam 1,437 1,524 1,328 1,481 1,481

697 Brazil 740 740 653 697 697

4,585 Other 4,735 4,677 4,063 4,400 4,375

25,290 Total 26,725 26,210 22,287 24,910 24,885

Imports none

1,096 China 1,243 2,099 1,579 1,960 1,960

1,481 Bangladesh 1,655 1,568 1,459 1,546 1,546

1,197 Vietnam 1,524 1,502 1,415 1,524 1,524

801 Turkey 876 762 936 914 893

533 Pakistan 740 621 784 980 849

738 Indonesia 766 664 621 664 664

596 India 365 392 523 239 239

1,763 Other 1,790 1,640 1,392 1,495 1,435

8,205 Total 8,959 9,248 8,708 9,323 9,110

Exports none

3,248 United States 3,545 3,230 3,309 3,484 3,266

607 Brazil 909 1,310 1,905 1,960 1,960

991 India 1,128 764 653 980 980

221 Greece 234 295 305 321 321

180 Benin 233 283 261 283 283

239 Mali 283 294 256 283 283

812 Australia 852 791 272 218 218

1,953 Other 1,871 2,007 1,744 1,813 1,792

8,251 Total 9,055 8,975 8,705 9,340 9,102

Ending Stocks none

9,998 China 8,272 7,766 8,055 7,755 7,701

1,716 India 2,009 2,028 4,183 4,597 4,641

1,509 Brazil 1,885 2,668 2,985 2,984 2,947

599 United States 914 1,056 1,546 1,742 1,481

504 Pakistan 616 543 701 712 696

355 Bangladesh 404 388 526 533 577

333 Turkey 387 358 570 570 543

2,463 Other 3,131 2,698 3,406 3,895 3,791

17,475 Total 17,618 17,506 21,972 22,789 22,376


Table 02 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1)

(1000 Bales)

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Jun

2020/21

Jul

2020/21

Production none

7,020 Brazil 9,220 13,000 13,200 12,000 12,000

22,750 China 27,500 27,750 27,250 26,500 26,500

27,000 India 29,000 25,800 30,500 28,500 28,500

7,700 Pakistan 8,200 7,600 6,200 6,300 6,500

3,200 Turkey 4,000 3,750 3,450 3,300 3,000

17,170 United States 20,923 18,367 19,913 19,500 17,500

3,725 Uzbekistan 3,860 3,275 3,500 3,250 3,250

18,112 Other 21,256 19,112 18,948 19,388 18,998

106,677 Total 123,959 118,654 122,961 118,738 116,248

USE Dom. Consumption none

6,800 Bangladesh 7,500 7,400 6,200 7,000 7,000

3,200 Brazil 3,400 3,400 3,000 3,200 3,200

38,500 China 41,000 39,500 33,000 37,000 37,000

24,350 India 24,150 24,000 20,000 23,000 23,000

3,300 Indonesia 3,500 3,150 2,700 3,000 3,000

10,300 Pakistan 10,900 10,700 9,000 10,300 10,300

6,550 Turkey 7,450 6,900 6,400 6,900 6,900

3,250 United States 3,225 2,975 2,500 2,800 2,800

2,000 Uzbekistan 2,500 2,800 3,000 3,100 3,100

5,400 Vietnam 6,600 7,000 6,100 6,800 6,800

12,507 Other 12,523 12,554 10,461 11,309 11,194

116,157 Total 122,748 120,379 102,361 114,409 114,294

Imports none

6,800 Bangladesh 7,600 7,200 6,700 7,100 7,100

5,032 China 5,710 9,640 7,250 9,000 9,000

2,736 India 1,677 1,800 2,400 1,100 1,100

3,391 Indonesia 3,517 3,051 2,850 3,050 3,050

392 Malaysia 739 744 1,000 750 750

1,000 Mexico 925 850 550 900 650

2,450 Pakistan 3,400 2,850 3,600 4,500 3,900

1,226 Thailand 1,149 1,075 700 925 925

3,679 Turkey 4,024 3,499 4,300 4,200 4,100

5,500 Vietnam 7,000 6,900 6,500 7,000 7,000

5,481 Other 5,409 4,864 4,145 4,293 4,267

37,687 Total 41,150 42,473 39,995 42,818 41,842

Exports none

3,731 Australia 3,915 3,632 1,250 1,000 1,000

825 Benin 1,070 1,300 1,200 1,300 1,300

2,789 Brazil 4,174 6,018 8,750 9,000 9,000

1,155 Burkina 1,225 800 825 875 875

500 Cameroon 400 575 500 575 575

625 Cote d'Ivoire 620 895 625 950 950

1,017 Greece 1,076 1,355 1,400 1,475 1,475

4,550 India 5,182 3,511 3,000 4,500 4,500

1,100 Mali 1,300 1,350 1,175 1,300 1,300

14,917 United States 16,281 14,837 15,200 16,000 15,000

6,688 Other 6,348 6,948 6,058 5,925 5,830

37,897 Total 41,591 41,221 39,983 42,900 41,805

Ending Stocks none

1,630 Bangladesh 1,855 1,783 2,415 2,450 2,650

6,929 Brazil 8,657 12,256 13,711 13,706 13,536

45,919 China 37,993 35,670 36,995 35,620 35,370

7,880 India 9,225 9,314 19,214 21,114 21,314

2,315 Pakistan 2,830 2,495 3,220 3,270 3,195

1,528 Turkey 1,777 1,644 2,619 2,619 2,494

2,750 United States 4,200 4,850 7,100 8,000 6,800

11,312 Other 14,381 12,390 15,642 17,890 17,413

80,263 Total 80,918 80,402 100,916 104,669 102,772


Table 04 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production

From last month From last year

MBalesPercent

Yield

(Kilograms per hectare)

Jul 2018/19 MBales

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production

(Million 480 lb. bales)

Change in Production

2018/19

Prel.

2019/20 Jun Jun

Prel.

2019/20 Jul

Prel.

2019/20 Jun Jul Percent

2020/21 Proj.2020/21 Proj. 2020/21 Proj.

2018/19

33.36World -5.46-6.71-2.10-2.49116.2535.00 33.45 32.98 774 765 773 768 118.65 122.96 118.74

4.04United States -12.12-2.41-10.26-2.0017.504.70 4.59 4.15 989 922 924 919 18.37 19.91 19.50

29.31Total Foreign -4.17-4.30-0.49-0.4998.7530.30 28.85 28.83 745 740 749 746 100.29 103.05 99.24

none

Western Hemisphere

1.64 Brazil -9.09-1.200.000.0012.001.67 1.55 1.55 1,726 1,721 1,686 1,686 13.00 13.20 12.00

0.24 Mexico -33.12-0.52-8.70-0.101.050.23 0.17 0.16 1,555 1,519 1,517 1,429 1.74 1.57 1.15

0.34 Argentina -7.14-0.10-3.70-0.051.300.46 0.45 0.43 728 670 653 666 1.12 1.40 1.35

0.01 Paraguay 0.000.000.000.000.020.01 0.01 0.01 416 416 416 416 0.02 0.02 0.02

0.02 Peru -3.850.000.000.000.050.01 0.01 0.01 1,169 1,029 1,089 1,089 0.10 0.05 0.05

0.01 Colombia 0.000.000.000.000.070.02 0.02 0.02 1,350 823 987 987 0.06 0.07 0.07

Africa

0.63 Burkina -5.00-0.050.000.000.950.58 0.58 0.58 294 379 360 360 0.85 1.00 0.95

0.73 Mali 0.000.000.000.001.350.74 0.74 0.74 381 400 400 400 1.27 1.35 1.35

0.39 Cote d'Ivoire 1.010.010.000.001.000.41 0.41 0.41 520 528 531 531 0.94 0.99 1.00

0.25 Cameroon -0.78-0.010.000.000.640.25 0.25 0.25 523 562 557 557 0.60 0.65 0.64

0.65 Benin 0.000.000.000.001.450.68 0.68 0.68 469 468 468 468 1.40 1.45 1.45

0.06 Chad 1.540.010.000.000.330.25 0.25 0.25 145 283 287 287 0.04 0.33 0.33

0.18 Togo 18.180.040.000.000.260.19 0.18 0.18 308 259 314 314 0.26 0.22 0.26

0.02 Senegal 20.690.010.000.000.040.02 0.02 0.02 301 395 381 381 0.03 0.03 0.04

0.14 Egypt -29.51-0.090.000.000.220.10 0.07 0.07 757 664 720 720 0.49 0.31 0.22

0.20 Zimbabwe 5.260.010.000.000.200.20 0.21 0.21 218 207 207 207 0.20 0.19 0.20

0.27 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.000.240.27 0.27 0.27 190 190 190 190 0.24 0.24 0.24

Asia Oceania

3.50 China -2.75-0.750.000.0026.503.45 3.30 3.30 1,726 1,720 1,748 1,748 27.75 27.25 26.50

12.60 India -6.56-2.000.000.0028.5013.30 12.50 12.50 446 499 496 496 25.80 30.50 28.50

2.30 Pakistan 4.840.303.170.206.502.45 2.20 2.40 719 551 623 590 7.60 6.20 6.30

0.13 Kazakhstan -14.86-0.060.000.000.320.13 0.11 0.11 587 644 623 623 0.35 0.37 0.32

0.18 Tajikistan -14.53-0.090.000.000.500.18 0.16 0.16 502 708 680 680 0.42 0.59 0.50

0.55 Turkmenistan 9.780.090.000.001.010.55 0.60 0.60 364 368 367 367 0.91 0.92 1.01

1.10 Uzbekistan -7.14-0.250.000.003.251.01 0.98 0.98 648 754 726 726 3.28 3.50 3.25

0.52 Turkey -13.04-0.45-9.09-0.303.000.57 0.45 0.40 1,570 1,318 1,597 1,633 3.75 3.45 3.30

0.38 Australia 172.001.080.000.001.700.06 0.18 0.18 1,261 2,268 2,056 2,056 2.20 0.63 1.70

0.03 Syria 0.000.000.000.000.140.03 0.03 0.03 1,219 1,219 1,219 1,219 0.14 0.14 0.14

0.24 Burma 0.830.010.000.000.730.25 0.24 0.24 637 641 662 662 0.70 0.72 0.73

Europe

0.25 Greece -2.99-0.05-0.91-0.021.630.29 0.28 0.28 1,253 1,280 1,275 1,287 1.41 1.68 1.64

1.77Others -5.79-0.24-5.56-0.233.822.00 1.99 1.85 448 442 442 449 3.65 4.06 4.05

Note: Yeild for Total Foreign and Others is an incorrect calculation.


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2020/21

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductionCountry

0 500301228545 Afghanistan 42

0 001211 Albania 1

40 00354500 Algeria 10

0 0051053 Angola 5

5 42505252,5711,300425 Argentina 1,621

0 000000 Armenia 0

0 1,0000352,6121,700180 Australia 1,577

15 00151800 Austria 3

0 3500100591480140 Azerbaijan 141

40 00404800 Bahrain 8

7,100 0107,0009,66014545 Bangladesh 2,650

40 00404600 Belarus 6

30 100203600 Belgium-Luxembour 6

0 1,3000151,9181,450675 Benin 603

2 00101484 Bolivia 4

25 9,00003,20025,73612,0001,550 Brazil 13,536

25 003542102 Bulgaria 7

0 8750251,380950575 Burkina 480

50 5007251,057730240 Burma 282

1 001200 Cambodia 1

0 575020909640250 Cameroon 314

2 002200 Canada 0

0 4000564134 Central African Republic 16

0 225010536330250 Chad 301

0 000000 Chile 0

9,000 125037,00072,49526,5003,300 China 35,370

45 001151526815 Colombia 37

2 0017211530 Congo (Kinshasa) 4

40 00405611 Costa Rica 16

0 9500301,6021,000410 Cote d'Ivoire 622

0 000000 Croatia 0

10 00141644 Cuba 2

0 000000 Cyprus 0

7 007900 Czech Republic 2

0 000000 Denmark 0


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2020/21 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


1 004534 Dominican Republic 1

50 00607593 Ecuador 15

550 2001056095921565 Egypt 189

165 0015520011 El Salvador 45

15 00151800 Estonia 3

20 5027535024082 Ethiopia 70

35 00354300 France 8

70 00759100 Germany 16

0 15010372815 Ghana 12

30 1,47525901,9201,625275 Greece 330

135 0013518532 Guatemala 50

0 1800211813 Guinea 3

5 00101157 Haiti 1

35 00404542 Honduras 5

5 500800 Hong Kong 3

3 300300 Hungary 0

1,100 4,500023,00048,81428,50012,500 India 21,314

3,050 503,0003,73333 Indonesia 728

250 0052569527580 Iran 170

35 0050731510 Iraq 23

0 000000 Ireland 0

2 350449354 Israel 10

125 5013016600 Italy 31

220 0022526400 Japan 39

0 250060493315110 Kazakhstan 183

15 0040642826 Kenya 24

95 001402155519 Korea, North 75

550 5055067600 Korea, South 121

0 1050013011518 Kyrgyzstan 25

7 106900 Latvia 2

5 005600 Lebanon 1

80 008511000 Lesotho 25

0 000000 Lithuania 0

5 005600 North Macedonia 1

0 10020453020 Madagascar 15


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


0 80051649080 Malawi 79

750 40003751,59600 Malaysia 821

0 1,3000251,9711,350735 Mali 646

120 0011514600 Mauritius 31

650 200251,7002,4641,050160 Mexico 539

50 00507200 Moldova 22

30 00303911 Morocco 9

0 10505201115125 Mozambique 91

15 00151700 Netherlands 2

0 90112104 Nicaragua 2

0 6031495 Niger 5

10 600185354235270 Nigeria 109

3,900 1002510,30013,6206,5002,400 Pakistan 3,195

0 000000 Panama 0

10 15015382111 Paraguay 8

250 203003805010 Peru 78

65 00658521 Philippines 20

17 00172000 Poland 3

175 0016521600 Portugal 51

1 001200 Romania 1

75 00859900 Russia 14

0 3500393520 Senegal 4

8 0081000 Serbia 2

3 300400 Singapore 1

1 001100 Slovakia 0

8 0081000 Slovenia 2

3 001011712 Somalia 1

50 11009040315030 South Africa 203

10 27502534230065 Spain 42

5 00101255 Sri Lanka 2

0 475070844600200 Sudan 299

0 000000 Sweden 0

2 002300 Switzerland 1

0 7006519414025 Syria 59

425 5042555900 Taiwan 129


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


0 350080921500160 Tajikistan 491

0 2250150805375450 Tanzania 430

925 0258501,03021 Thailand 155

0 235015342260180 Togo 92

20 003035102 Tunisia 5

4,100 32506,9009,7193,000400 Turkey 2,494

0 20008001,7341,010600 Turkmenistan 734

0 150015308170100 Uganda 143

5 005600 Ukraine 1

2 002300 United Kingdom 1

5 15,00052,80024,60517,5004,146 United States 6,800

0 000000 Uruguay 0

0 10003,1004,6083,250975 Uzbekistan 1,408

15 00951358515 Venezuela 40

7,000 006,8008,59431 Vietnam 1,794

0 3025342818 Yemen 6

0 18005518200120 Zambia 333

0 1751030384200210 Zimbabwe 169

World

41,842 41,805135114,294259,006116,24832,975 World 102,772


(1000 MT and 1000 HA)

Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2020/21

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


0 1107271945 Afghanistan 9

0 000001 Albania 0

9 0081000 Algeria 2

0 001213 Angola 1

1 930114560283425 Argentina 353

0 000000 Armenia 0

0 21808569370180 Australia 343

3 003400 Austria 1

0 76022129105140 Azerbaijan 31

9 0091000 Bahrain 2

1,546 021,5242,1033245 Bangladesh 577

9 0091000 Belarus 1


0 28303418316675 Benin 131

0 002324 Bolivia 1

5 1,96006975,6032,6131,550 Brazil 2,947

5 008922 Bulgaria 2

0 19105300207575 Burkina 105

11 110158230159240 Burma 61

0 000000 Cambodia 0

0 12504198139250 Cameroon 68

0 000000 Canada 0


0 490211772250 Chad 66

0 000000 Chile 0

1,960 2708,05615,7845,7703,300 China 7,701

10 0025331515 Colombia 8


9 0091201 Costa Rica 3

0 20707349218410 Cote d'Ivoire 135

0 000000 Croatia 0

2 003314 Cuba 0

0 000000 Cyprus 0


0 000000 Denmark 0


(1000 MT and 1000 HA)

Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2020/21 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply



11 00131623 Ecuador 3

120 4421222094765 Egypt 41

36 00344401 El Salvador 10

3 003400 Estonia 1

4 1060765282 Ethiopia 15

8 008900 France 2

15 00162000 Germany 3

0 3028615 Ghana 3

7 321520418354275 Greece 72

29 00294012 Guatemala 11

0 4005413 Guinea 1

1 002217 Haiti 0

8 0091012 Honduras 1


1 100100 Hungary 0

239 98005,00810,6286,20512,500 India 4,641

664 1065381313 Indonesia 159

54 001141516080 Iran 37

8 001116310 Iraq 5

0 000000 Ireland 0

0 8011184 Israel 2

27 10283600 Italy 7

48 00495700 Japan 8

0 5401310769110 Kazakhstan 40

3 00914626 Kenya 5

21 0030471219 Korea, North 16

120 1012014700 Korea, South 26

0 2300282518 Kyrgyzstan 5

2 001200 Latvia 0

1 001100 Lebanon 0

17 00192400 Lesotho 5



0 20410720 Madagascar 3


(1000 MT and 1000 HA)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


0 1701362080 Malawi 17

163 8708234700 Malaysia 179

0 28305429294735 Mali 141

26 00253200 Mauritius 7

142 445370536229160 Mexico 117

11 00111600 Moldova 5

7 007801 Morocco 2

0 23014425125 Mozambique 20



0 101325 Niger 1

2 130407751270 Nigeria 24

849 2252,2432,9651,4152,400 Pakistan 696

0 000000 Panama 0

2 3038511 Paraguay 2

54 0065831110 Peru 17


4 004400 Poland 1

38 00364700 Portugal 11

0 000000 Romania 0

16 00192200 Russia 3

0 8008820 Senegal 1

2 002200 Serbia 0


0 000000 Slovakia 0

2 002200 Slovenia 0

1 0022212 Somalia 0

11 24020883330 South Africa 44

2 6005746565 Spain 9

1 002315 Sri Lanka 0

0 103015184131200 Sudan 65

0 000000 Sweden 0


0 15014423025 Syria 13

93 109312200 Taiwan 28


(1000 MT and 1000 HA)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


0 76017201109160 Tajikistan 107

0 4903317582450 Tanzania 94

201 0518522401 Thailand 34

0 51037457180 Togo 20

4 007822 Tunisia 1

893 7101,5022,116653400 Turkey 543

0 440174378220600 Turkmenistan 160

0 33036737100 Uganda 31

1 001100 Ukraine 0


1 3,26616105,3573,8104,146 United States 1,481

0 000000 Uruguay 0

0 2206751,003708975 Uzbekistan 307

3 0021291915 Venezuela 9

1,524 001,4811,87111 Vietnam 391

0 1057618 Yemen 1

0 390111344120 Zambia 73

0 38278444210 Zimbabwe 37

World

9,110 9,1022924,88556,39225,31032,975 World 22,376


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 06: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2019/20

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


0 500201079048 Afghanistan 37

0 001211 Albania 1

30 00303500 Algeria 5

0 0051052 Angola 5

0 35004802,0961,400455 Argentina 1,266

0 000000 Armenia 0

0 1,2500352,19762560 Australia 912

10 00101300 Austria 3

0 350080541480140 Azerbaijan 111

40 00404800 Bahrain 8

6,700 0106,2008,62514245 Bangladesh 2,415

40 00404600 Belarus 6


0 1,2000151,6831,450675 Benin 468

2 00101484 Bolivia 4

5 8,75003,00025,46113,2001,670 Brazil 13,711

15 002532102 Bulgaria 7

0 8250251,2801,000575 Burkina 430

50 400675992724246 Burma 277

1 001200 Cambodia 1

0 500020789645250 Cameroon 269

2 002200 Canada 0


0 170010386325250 Chad 206

0 000000 Chile 0

7,250 175033,00070,17027,2503,450 China 36,995

60 001201596818 Colombia 39


35 00355011 Costa Rica 15

0 6250301,257990408 Cote d'Ivoire 602

0 000000 Croatia 0

10 00141644 Cuba 2

0 000000 Cyprus 0


0 000000 Denmark 0


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 06: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2019/20 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply



45 00557193 Ecuador 16

450 22510550979305100 Egypt 194

120 0013016411 El Salvador 34

15 00151800 Estonia 3

30 10025035025080 Ethiopia 90

40 50354800 France 8

90 1007510600 Germany 21

0 20010392815 Ghana 9

30 1,40025801,7701,675285 Greece 265

150 0014018732 Guatemala 47

0 1800211812 Guinea 3

5 00101157 Haiti 1

35 00384442 Honduras 6


3 300300 Hungary 0

2,400 3,000020,00042,21430,50013,300 India 19,214

2,850 502,7003,38533 Indonesia 680

250 0050067027580 Iran 170

35 0050731510 Iraq 23

0 000000 Ireland 0

2 400456435 Israel 12

150 5012517100 Italy 41

230 0022026400 Japan 44

0 275060513370125 Kazakhstan 178

15 0040612825 Kenya 21

95 001402055519 Korea, North 65

585 20060074600 Korea, South 126

0 1050012011518 Kyrgyzstan 15

7 106900 Latvia 2

5 005600 Lebanon 1

90 008511500 Lesotho 30



0 10020453020 Madagascar 15


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


0 70051499080 Malawi 74

1,000 37503251,54600 Malaysia 846

0 1,1750251,8211,350735 Mali 621

120 0011514100 Mauritius 26

550 525251,5002,8141,570225 Mexico 764

70 00608200 Moldova 22

35 00354311 Morocco 8

0 9505186115125 Mozambique 86



0 6031495 Niger 5

10 300175314235270 Nigeria 109

3,600 50259,00012,2956,2002,450 Pakistan 3,220

0 000000 Panama 0

8 15014362111 Paraguay 7

220 202703525211 Peru 80


17 00172000 Poland 3

150 0015019100 Portugal 41

1 001200 Romania 1

100 0010512900 Russia 24

0 3000342916 Senegal 4

8 0081000 Serbia 2


1 001100 Slovakia 0

8 0081000 Slovenia 2

3 001011712 Somalia 1

50 10008538812228 South Africa 203

15 30002035231366 Spain 32

5 00101255 Sri Lanka 2

0 425070739600200 Sudan 244

0 000000 Sweden 0


0 5006016414025 Syria 54

400 10040054400 Taiwan 134


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


0 400070891585180 Tajikistan 421

0 2500165845595600 Tanzania 430

700 12575087921 Thailand 103

0 200015297220185 Togo 82

20 003035102 Tunisia 5

4,300 37506,4009,3943,450570 Turkey 2,619

0 10007251,549920545 Turkmenistan 724

0 14001529317089 Uganda 138

5 005600 Ukraine 1


5 15,200-322,50024,76819,9134,700 United States 7,100

0 000000 Uruguay 0

0 30003,0004,6583,5001,010 Uzbekistan 1,358

15 00851208515 Venezuela 35

6,500 006,1007,69131 Vietnam 1,591

0 3025342818 Yemen 6

0 12505448210130 Zambia 318

0 1251030349190200 Zimbabwe 184

World

39,995 39,98398102,361243,358122,96135,000 World 100,916


(1,000 Metric Tons)

Table 06A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2019/20

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseImportsProductionCountry

0 811042048 Afghanistan

0 000001 Albania

7 100700 Algeria

0 100112 Angola

0 276760105305455 Argentina

0 000000 Armenia

0 1992720813660 Australia

2 100200 Austria

0 2476017105140 Azerbaijan

9 200900 Bahrain

1,459 526021,3503145 Bangladesh

9 100900 Belarus

7 120400 Belgium-Luxembour

0 10226103316675 Benin

0 100224 Bolivia

1 2,9851,90506532,8741,670 Brazil

3 200522 Bulgaria

0 9418005218575 Burkina

11 6090147158246 Burma

0 000000 Cambodia

0 5910904140250 Cameroon

0 000000 Canada

0 3900934 Central African Republic

0 45370271250 Chad

0 000000 Chile

1,579 8,0553807,1855,9333,450 China

13 800261518 Colombia

0 1004330 Congo (Kinshasa)

8 300801 Costa Rica

0 13113607216408 Cote d'Ivoire

0 000000 Croatia

2 000314 Cuba

0 000000 Cyprus

2 000200 Czech Republic

0 000000 Denmark


(1,000 Metric Tons)

Table 06A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2019/20 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks


0 000114 Dominican Republic

10 3001223 Ecuador

98 4249212066100 Egypt

26 7002801 El Salvador

3 100300 Estonia

7 2020545480 Ethiopia

9 210800 France

20 5201600 Germany

0 2402615 Ghana

7 58305517365285 Greece

33 10003012 Guatemala

0 1400412 Guinea

1 000217 Haiti

8 100812 Honduras

1 110000 Hong Kong

1 010000 Hungary

523 4,18365304,3556,64113,300 India

621 1481058813 Indonesia

54 37001096080 Iran

8 50011310 Iraq

0 000000 Ireland

0 390195 Israel

33 9102700 Italy

50 10004800 Japan

0 396001381125 Kazakhstan

3 5009625 Kenya

21 1400301219 Korea, North

127 274013100 Korea, South

0 323002518 Kyrgyzstan

2 000100 Latvia

1 000100 Lebanon

20 7001900 Lesotho

0 000000 Lithuania

1 000100 North Macedonia

0 3204720 Madagascar


(1,000 Metric Tons)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks


0 1615012080 Malawi

218 1848207100 Malaysia

0 13525605294735 Mali

26 6002500 Mauritius

120 1661145327342225 Mexico

15 5001300 Moldova

8 200801 Morocco

0 19210125125 Mozambique

3 000300 Netherlands

0 020024 Nicaragua

0 110125 Niger

2 24703851270 Nigeria

784 7011151,9601,3502,450 Pakistan

0 000000 Panama

2 2303511 Paraguay

48 1700591111 Peru

7 400501 Philippines

4 100400 Poland

33 9003300 Portugal

0 000000 Romania

22 5002300 Russia

0 1700616 Senegal

2 000200 Serbia

1 010000 Singapore

0 000000 Slovakia

2 000200 Slovenia

1 0002212 Somalia

11 44220192728 South Africa

3 765046866 Spain

1 000215 Sri Lanka

0 5393015131200 Sudan

0 000000 Sweden

0 000000 Switzerland

0 12110133025 Syria

87 29208700 Taiwan


(1,000 Metric Tons)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks


0 9287015127180 Tajikistan

0 9454036130600 Tanzania

152 220516301 Thailand

0 18440348185 Togo

4 100722 Tunisia

936 5708201,393751570 Turkey

0 158220158200545 Turkmenistan

0 3030033789 Uganda

1 000100 Ukraine

0 000000 United Kingdom

1 1,5463,309-75444,3364,700 United States

0 000000 Uruguay

0 2966506537621,010 Uzbekistan

3 800191915 Venezuela

1,415 346001,32811 Vietnam

0 1105618 Yemen

0 69270146130 Zambia

0 40272741200 Zimbabwe

World

8,708 21,9728,7052122,28726,77235,000 World


Table 09: World Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Country Mktg Year Beginning

Stocks

Area

Harvested

Production Imports Total

Supply

Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Stock to

Use %

World

2924,98487,13923486,90531,357143,48032,70379,72031,69631,057 1989/90

3227,47385,69417085,52429,560142,72730,57887,16533,15324,984 1990/91

4336,97186,55636886,18828,204151,73129,02495,23434,75827,473 1991/92

4034,51086,4006386,33725,435146,34527,06782,30732,64336,971 1992/93

3327,83385,70314385,56026,620140,15627,96777,67930,71834,510 1993/94

3832,02084,292-33084,62228,118144,43030,30086,29732,25027,833 1994/95

4740,13585,396-54485,94027,396152,92727,00493,90335,92032,020 1995/96

5144,63987,351-58587,93626,777158,76728,57990,05333,74040,135 1996/97

5749,47386,686-58187,26726,777162,93625,92992,36833,79744,639 1997/98

6252,85883,651-1,11484,76523,517160,02624,48086,07332,88549,473 1998/99

5651,14490,490-60291,09227,126168,76027,99387,90932,35052,858 1999/00

5449,56290,724-1,42492,14826,156166,44226,20989,08932,01151,144 2000/01

5854,68093,601-78194,38229,081177,36229,29798,50333,71749,562 2001/02

4947,88297,608-80498,41230,400175,89030,18891,02230,75654,680 2002/03

4948,37697,179-90998,08833,152178,70734,15096,67532,25847,882 2003/04

5660,977107,960-1,245109,20534,949203,88633,965121,54535,65848,376 2004/05

5361,906115,178-1,793116,97144,922222,00644,668116,36134,72060,977 2005/06

5162,987122,493-1,715124,20837,416222,89638,305122,68534,57661,906 2006/07

5061,878121,743-2,094123,83738,868222,48939,453120,04932,87862,987 2007/08

5661,453108,860-1,436110,29630,207200,52030,573108,06930,62261,878 2008/09

3946,179119,482-12119,49435,804201,46536,928103,08430,18761,453 2009/10

4349,273115,591119115,47234,910199,77436,297117,29833,82646,179 2010/11

6972,035103,876-210104,08646,029221,94045,423127,24436,05649,273 2011/12

8389,326107,880-343108,22346,360243,56647,630123,90134,31672,035 2012/13

9199,904109,97892109,88641,007250,88941,204120,35932,85589,326 2013/14

95106,749112,479268112,21135,958255,18636,065119,21733,86599,904 2014/15

8090,159113,476264113,21234,721238,35635,44496,16330,752106,749 2015/16

6980,263116,363206116,15737,897234,52337,687106,67729,76190,159 2016/17

6680,918122,863115122,74841,591245,37241,150123,95933,75580,263 2017/18

6780,402120,42243120,37941,221242,04542,473118,65433,35680,918 2018/19

99100,916102,45998102,36139,983243,35839,995122,96135,00080,402 2019/20

90102,772114,429135114,29441,805259,00641,842116,24832,975100,916 2020/21


Table 10: United States Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Harvested

Yield Beginning

Stocks


Supply

Exports Use Loss Ending

Stocks

Stock to

Use %

United States

183,000-1638,7597,69419,290212,1967,0926883,860 1989/90

142,344-2858,6577,79318,509415,5053,0007114,748 1990/91

233,70489,6136,64619,9711317,6142,3447315,245 1991/92

304,662-19010,2505,20119,923116,2183,7047854,501 1992/93

203,530-810,4186,86220,802616,1344,6626795,173 1993/94

132,650-3811,1989,40223,2122019,6623,5307945,391 1994/95

142,6092710,6477,67520,95840817,9002,6506026,478 1995/96

223,971-811,1266,86521,95440318,9422,6097915,216 1996/97

213,8874111,3497,50022,7771318,7933,9717545,425 1997/98

273,939-39410,4014,29818,24443913,9183,8877014,324 1998/99

233,91514510,1946,75021,0049716,9683,9396805,433 1999/00

386,000-4838,8626,74021,1191617,1883,9157085,282 2000/01

407,4481807,69611,00026,3242120,3036,0007905,596 2001/02

285,3851667,27311,90024,7246717,2097,4487465,025 2002/03

173,4502116,26613,75823,6854518,2555,3858184,858 2003/04

265,4951086,69114,43626,7302923,2513,4509585,284 2004/05

266,069-2005,87117,67329,4132823,8905,4959315,586 2005/06

539,4793034,93512,95927,6761921,5886,0699125,152 2006/07

5510,0514294,58413,63428,6981219,2079,4799854,245 2007/08

386,337-2633,54113,26122,876012,82510,0519123,063 2008/09

192,947-143,55012,03718,520012,1836,3378703,049 2009/10

142,6001823,90014,37621,058918,1022,9479104,330 2010/11

223,350-1723,30011,71418,1921915,5732,6008863,829 2011/12

233,8003483,50013,02620,6741017,3143,3509993,772 2012/13

172,3502923,55010,53016,7221312,9093,8009213,051 2013/14

253,6502103,57511,24618,6811216,3192,3509393,785 2014/15

303,8001683,4509,15316,5713312,8883,6508593,268 2015/16

152,750603,25014,91720,977717,1703,8009723,848 2016/17

224,200-303,22516,28123,676320,9232,7501,0144,492 2017/18

274,850-922,97514,83722,570318,3674,2009894,043 2018/19

407,100-322,50015,20024,768519,9134,8509224,700 2019/20

386,80052,80015,00024,605517,5007,1009194,146 2020/21


Table 11: Foreign Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Harvested

Yield Beginning

Stocks


Supply

Exports Use Loss Ending

Stocks

Total Foreign

25,12945576,86721,767124,21830,57471,66021,98454928,405 1990/91

33,26736076,57521,558131,76029,01177,62025,12957329,513 1991/92

29,84825376,08720,234126,42227,06666,08933,26751128,142 1992/93

24,30315175,14219,758119,35427,96161,54529,84852525,545 1993/94

29,370-29273,42418,716121,21830,28066,63524,30354026,859 1994/95

37,526-57175,29319,721131,96926,59676,00329,37056229,442 1995/96

40,668-57776,81019,912136,81328,17671,11137,52654328,524 1996/97

45,586-62275,91819,277140,15925,91673,57540,66856528,372 1997/98

48,919-72074,36419,219141,78224,04172,15545,58655028,561 1998/99

47,229-74780,89820,376147,75627,89670,94148,91957426,917 1999/00

43,562-94183,28619,416145,32326,19371,90147,22958626,729 2000/01

47,232-96186,68618,081151,03829,27678,20043,56260528,121 2001/02

42,497-97091,13918,500151,16630,12173,81347,23262525,731 2002/03

44,926-1,12091,82219,394155,02234,10578,42042,49762327,400 2003/04

55,482-1,353102,51420,513177,15633,93698,29444,92670530,374 2004/05

55,837-1,593111,10027,249192,59344,64092,47155,48269129,134 2005/06

53,508-2,018119,27324,457195,22038,286101,09755,83774829,424 2006/07

51,827-2,523119,25325,234193,79139,441100,84253,50876728,633 2007/08

55,116-1,173106,75516,946177,64430,57395,24451,82775227,559 2008/09

43,2322115,94423,767182,94536,92890,90155,11672927,138 2009/10

46,673-63111,57220,534178,71636,28899,19643,23273229,496 2010/11

68,685-38100,78634,315203,74845,404111,67146,67375432,227 2011/12

85,526-691104,72333,334222,89247,620106,58768,68576030,544 2012/13

97,554-200106,33630,477234,16741,191107,45085,52678529,804 2013/14

103,09958108,63624,712236,50536,053102,89897,55474530,080 2014/15

86,35996109,76225,568221,78535,41183,275103,09966027,484 2015/16

77,513146112,90722,980213,54637,68089,50786,35975225,913 2016/17

76,718145119,52325,310221,69641,147103,03677,51376729,263 2017/18

75,552135117,40426,384219,47542,470100,28776,71874529,313 2018/19

93,81613099,86124,783218,59039,990103,04875,55274030,300 2019/20

95,972130111,49426,805234,40141,83798,74893,81674628,829 2020/21


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