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Incheon, 27-29 November 2018
Could ignoring the mind’s “Elephant” be a barrier to building trust?
Providing Trusted Evidence in a Post-Truth WorldThe Future of Wellbeing
6th OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge & Policy
www.akas.london [email protected]
The Challenge:
TheElephant
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A recent paper by the Luxembourg’s Institute of Statistics & Economics Studies highlights the Elephant challenge
Jonathan Haidt (2013) claims that the "mind is divided, like a rider on an elephant, and the rider’s
job is to serve the elephant. The rider is our conscious reasoning— the stream of words
and images of which we are fully aware. The elephant is the other 99 percent of mental processes—the ones that occur outside of awareness but that actually
govern most of our behaviour”
Source: Trust in official statistics. An econometric search for determinants. The case of Luxembourg, Dr Serge Allegrezza. Director General. Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (STATEC), Paper prepared for
the 16th Conference of IAOS OECD Headquarters, Paris, France, 19-21 September 2018
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So the mind’s Elephant is more powerful than theRider in mental processing
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Haidt, J.(2006, 2013)
Slow
Analytical
ExperiencedIntuitive
Automatic
The Elephant & the Rider (dual processes in the mind) have specific roles
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FastInstinct-driven
Data-driven
Automatic
Controlled
Conscious
Source: *Haidt, J. (2006). The happiness hypothesis: Finding modern truth in ancient wisdomHaidt, J. (2013) The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion
Arguably, NSOs have historically measured the Rider response in surveys, & paid less attention to The Elephant
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*Source: OECD (2011), Measuring Trust in Official Statistics, Cognitive Testing Report to the OECD of the Electronic Working Group on
Measuring Trust in Official Statistics
OECD’s framework for measurement of trust (2011)
Accuracy
Timeliness
Reliability
Credibility
Objectivity
Relevance
Coherence
ConfidentialityProtected
Integrity
Openness/Transparency
Impartiality
EffectiveStakeholder Mgt
Trust in statistical products Trust in statistical institution
The OECD’s 2017 guidelines on measuring trust & the TrustLab might be capturing the Elephant better
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**Source: OECD (2017), Guidelines on Measuring Trust
OECD Guidelines on Measuring Trust (2017)
Responsiveness
Reliability
Openness
Fairness
Integrity
Trust in Competence Trust in Values (or Intentions)
Let’s take an example: Immigration statistics
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INDIVIDUAL
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A typical individual forms their intuition based on many factors, such as…
INDIVIDUAL
CulturalIdentity
PoliticalBeliefs
Genes
Situationaltriggers
Hatemi, P. et al (2014)
Myers, T. at al (2017)Nisbet, E, Cooper, K., & Garret, R (2015)
Haidt, J. (2013)
Norms
Emotions
Sniderman, P. M., Hagendoorn, L., & Prior, M. (2004).
Dolan, P., et al (2012)
Lerner, J., & Keltner, D. (2000).
Migrants make up 25%
of the population*
* Ipsos (2015), UK Figures from Perils of Perception
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But there is a conflict between the Rider & the Elephant
Source: * Ipsos Perils of Perception UK Figures, (2015) ** Annual Population Survey , UK office of National Statistics (2015)
STATISTICS ORG INDIVIDUAL
Migrants make up 25%
of the population*
Foreign born residents make up 13% of the
resident population**
STATISTICS ORG
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INDIVIDUALDon’t believethese figures
The Elephant rejects the message and the individual’s intuition is trusted
Migrants make up 25%
of the population*
Source: * Ipsos, Perils of Perception UK Figures, (2015) ** Annual Population Survey , UK Office of National Statistics (2015)
Foreign born residents make up 13% of the
resident population**
Brexit showed many people trusted “their own eyes”….
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“[In local authority areas] Where foreign-born populations increased by more than 200% between 2001 and 2014, a leave vote followed in 94% of cases”
*The Economist, Explaining Brexit (2016)
Source: *The Economist, Explaining Brexit, Britain’s immigration paradox, 8 July 2016
“[In local authority areas] Where foreign-born populations increased by more than 200% between 2001 and 2014, a leave vote followed in 94% of cases”
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Source: *The Economist, Explaining Brexit, Britain’s immigration paradox, 8 July 2016** YouGov UK Survey, Feb 2017
Distrust Economists**
LeaveVoters
RemainVoters
56%
36%
Brexit showed many UK voters trusted “their own eyes”…. rather than the experts
The Opportunity:
Exploring 5 Ways To Tame
TheElephant
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1.Using
Trusted Messengers
2.Developing
Warmth
3.IncreasingRelevance
4.Young People
5.Actively
Listening &Emphasising
STATISTICS AGENCY INDIVIDUAL
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Migrants make up
25% of the population*
Migrants make up 11%
of the population
1. Building relationships with & use trusted messengers to develop “borrowed trust”
STATISTICS AGENCY INDIVIDUAL
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TRUSTEDMESSENGER
Migrants make up 11%
of the population
Migrants make up
25% of the population*
1. Building relationships with & use trusted messengers to develop “borrowed trust”
STATISTICS AGENCY INDIVIDUAL
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TRUSTEDMESSENGER
Some interestingnew story
on migrants,might change
your mind
Migrants make up 11%
of the population
Maybe there are fewer migrants
1. Building relationships with & use trusted messengers to develop “borrowed trust”
Migrants make up
25% of the population*
Who could the trusted messengers be?
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Source: Ipsos (2018) - Veracity Index Base: 1,001 British adults aged 15+Fieldwork 12-25 October 2018
Q: “Now I will read you a list of different types of people. For each would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not? (% trust to tell the truth)
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2. Developing warmth* as well as competency to help researchers become trusted messengers
Source: *Fiske, S. T., & Dupree, C. (2014). Gaining trust as well as respect in communicating to motivated audiences about science topics. Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences,111(Supplement 4), 13593-13597.
4.5
3.5
2.5
4.503.52.51.5
1.5
Warmth(Rating Out of 5) Teacher Nurse
Doctor
ProfessorWorkerFarmer
Child Care
Writer
Actor
Secretary
Researcher
Accountant
Engineer
Scientist
CEO
Lawyer
Prostitute
Dishwasher TruckDriver
TaxiDriver
GarbageCollector
Food Server
Fast FoodWorker
CashierMaid
WriterJanitor
Customer Service
Laborer
PoliticianMechanic
Banker
Plumber
Manager
Bus DriverRetailWorker Office
ClerkPolice Officer
Construction WorkerSalesperson
CookLandscaperFactory Worker
Competence(Rating Out of 5)
Low WarmthHigh Competence
High WarmthHigh Competence
Warmth- Competence Rating for 42 Professions (USA)
The warmth-competency framework or stereotype content model has been used in 37 countries
Source: Durante, F., Fiske, S. T., Kervyn, N., Cuddy, A. J., Akande, A., Adetoun, B. E., ... & Barlow, F. K. (2013). Nations' income inequality predicts ambivalence in stereotype content: How societies mind the gap.British Journal of Social
Psychology,52(4), 726-746.
Countries were the stereotype content model has been used (2013)
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NSO* sites (the face) are highly competent: text, data
www.akas.london 21Source: *AKAS analysis of 36 OECD NSO homepages, Nov 2018
Homepages of 36 OECD National Statistical Offices (Nov 2018)
But low warmth: 17% show ordinary people’s faces
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Homepages of 36 OECD National Statistical Offices (Nov 2018)
Source: *AKAS analysis of 36 OECD NSO homepages, Nov 2018
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The competition has high warmth & competence
*Nielsen’s Homepage: https://www.nielsen.com/uk/en.html
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4. Increase relevance: Ensure published information is more relevant to people’s everyday concerns
NSO websites dominated by macro economics*:
Coverage on NSO homepages:
81% Inflation72% Unemployment/Employment64% GDP53% Population
Source: *AKAS analysis of 36 OECD NSO homepages, November 2018
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3. Increase relevance: Explore highlighting information that is more relevant to people’s everyday concerns
Top 5 Public’s concerns in 26 Countries:*
34% Financial/ Political Corruption33% Unemployment 33% Poverty/ Social Inequality 33% Crime & Violence 24% Healthcare
Source: *AKAS analysis of 36 OECD NSO homepages, November 2018**Ipsos, What Worries the World (Sep 2018), Covers 26 Countries
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3. Increase relevance: Explore highlighting information that is more relevant to people’s everyday concerns
Source: *AKAS analysis of 36 OECD NSO homepages, November 2018**Ipsos, What Worries the World (Sep 2018), Covers 26 Countries
Top 5 Public’s concerns in 26 Countries:*
34% Financial/ Political Corruption33% Unemployment 33% Poverty/ Social Inequality 33% Crime & Violence 24% Healthcare
Coverage on NSO homepages**:
3% 72%
3%6%
17%
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4. Engaging young people to help them “lock-in” accurate beliefs before they get older
The brain’s ability to change in response to experiences
2 4 6 8 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Source: *Levitt C. A, (2009), From Best Practises to Breakthrough Impacts: A Science-Based Approach to Building A More Promising Future For Young Children and Families, Center on the Developing Child,
Harvard University, Cambridge, MA
Age
The amount of effortsuch change requires
Levitt’s* conceptual
graph of brain
plasticity by age
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5. Actively Listening & Empathising: Outreach, focusing on day to day research contacts, empathising*** with the public
Source: *Financial Times, 19 Aug 2017, & ** 7 Oct 2018*** Broockman, D. and Kalla, J (2016)
* **
1.Using
Trusted Messengers
Summary: 5 areas to explore to tame the Elephant
2.Developing
Warmth
3.IncreasingRelevance
4.Young People
5.Actively
Listening &Emphasising
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Incheon, 27-29 November 2018
Could ignoring the mind’s “Elephant” be a barrier to building trust?
Thank you!
www.akas.london [email protected]
Incidentally, this gap between perceptions and reality is common in OECD countries
*From Ipsos (2015), UK Figures from Perils of Perception What percentage of the population do you think are immigrants (i.e. not born in this country
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%age point gap between the perceived vs. actual immigrant population(22 OECD countries)Mexico 21
USA 19
Canada 18
Chile 17
Colombia 17
Italy 17
France 14
Germany 14
Belgium 14
Netherlands 13
Great Britain 12
New Zealand 12
Australia 10
Hungary 10
Sweden 9
South Korea 8
Spain 8
Japan 8
Poland 7
Ireland 7
Norway 2
Israel -3