country profile japan - asian sky group en.pdfbbj’s success in the china market. as japan goes...
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THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | I
THIRD QUARTER 2016
THIRD
QU
ARTER 2016
ASIA
N SKY Q
UA
RTERLY
SPOTLIGHTBOEING BBJ & BBJ MAX
INTERVIEWSDAVID LONGRIDGEPRESIDENT, BBJ
LEONA QIPRESIDENT OF NORTH ASIA VISTAJET
ASIA-PACIFIC OUTLOOK
METRICS & MOOD
CURRENT MARKET SUMMARIES
JETS & HELICOPTERS
COUNTRY PROFILE
JAPAN
II | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
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THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 1
PUBLISHER’S NOTE
SPECIAL THANKS TO OUR CONTRIBUTORS:
This is the 4th edition of Asian Sky Quarterly which means we’ve been at this for a year now. And yes while it is interesting to look back at changes throughout the year in the somewhat dry economic data and market dynamics, the most interesting “look back” is the information found in ASG’s survey results. Fascinating, informative, surprising but also inexplicable at times – so it goes with people’s moods and intentions. The survey has been a great success. This quarter we had over 210 respondents, which was the highest to date and also a better geographical balance was achieved from across the Asia-Pacific region.
Examining the changes over the 12 months since Issue 1 of Asian Sky Quarterly, it would seem the business aviation environment is getting worse: the mood in the Asia-Pacific region has gotten more pessimistic, as more people are feeling we are not yet at the low point of the current economic cycle; and, in all likelihood a direct consequence of this pessimism, as 2016 has progressed, aircraft utilizations have continued to decrease with the highest slow down occurring in China.
But then against this backdrop of ominous dark clouds and going against the grain, you have purchase intentions increasing quarter to quarter with respondents indicating this quarter the highest intent yet to purchase a new or pre-owned aircraft (28%/29%). Over the course of the year the percentage of “No / I’m not sure” has dropped 16% from 58% down to a new low of 43%.So on one hand increased pessimism but then on the other increased purchase intentions. The two are completely contradictory to one another. As said, there’s no explaining people’s moods and intentions sometimes. So, let’s ignore the bad mood and sell more airplanes.
Along with Moods & Intentions, all the regular sections – Economics and Market Dynamics -- are featured in this edition.
We’ve had the opportunity to yet again sit down with some notable personalities in the industry. VistaJet’s Leona Qi spoke about the charter company’s unique business model and its plans to further expand. BBJ President, David Longridge provided some insight on the upcoming additions to the BBJ family, as well as BBJ’s success in the China market.
As Japan goes through some trying economic times, we found it important to take a closer look at this market for this edition’s country profile. ASG spoke to a number of industry leaders in Japan, who provided us with an inside look at the industry and challenges it faces.
As always, Asian Sky Quarterly aims to offer a better understanding of the market. Thank you to our readers and supporters.
Sincerely,Jeffrey C. Lowe
Managing Director, Asian Sky Group
2 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
ECONOMICSOverview of the Asia-Pacific region’s current status and each specific country’s GDP in contrast with their business aircraft fleet growth.
MOOD & INTENTIONSSurvey results of the Asia-Pacific region’s mood on current economic status, aircraft utilization, purchase intentions, and influencing factors.
COUNTRY PROFILEOverview and examination of Japan’s business aviation industry, its fleet growth, and top operators.
MARKET DYNAMICSAn in-depth analysis of the changing pricing signals and business aircraft momentum, given the continual fluctuations of supply and demand.
INTERVIEW: LEONA QI, VISTAJET PRESIDENT OF NORTH ASIA Discussing the company’s plans for expansion, evolving customer service, and their new mobile app.
PUBLISHER Asian Sky Group
PUBLISHING AGENTBlu Inc Media (HK)
EDITORIALLitalia Yoakum
CREATIVE DIRECTORJennifer Spano
DESIGNBlu Inc Media and ASG
ADVERTISING [email protected]@bluincmedia.com
TECHNICALColorprint OffsetAddress 地址 香港柴湾新业街8号八号商业广场18楼1808室 Tel 电话 +852 2896 7777 Fax 传真 +852 2869 6666Website 网站 www.cpo.com.hk
Asian Sky Quarterly is published by Blu Inc Media (HK) Ltd, a subsidiary of SPH Magazines Pte Ltd. Copyright and trademark registered by SPH Magazines Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. Content copyright © Blu Inc Media (HK) Ltd.
The trademark and content may not be used or reproduced without the permission of SPH Magazines Pte Ltd and Blu Inc Media (HK) Ltd. © 2015 by Blu Inc Media (HK) Ltd.
The materials and information provided by Asian Sky Group Limited (“ASG”) in this report is for reference only. Any information we provide about how we may interpret the data and market, or how certain issues may be addressed is provided generally without considering your specific circumstances. Such information should not be regarded as a substitute for professional advice. Independent professional advice should be sought before taking action on any matters to which information provided in this report may be relevant.
ASG shall not be liable for any losses, damage, costs or expenses howsoever caused, arising directly or indirectly from the use of or inability to use this report or use of or reliance upon any information or material provided in this report or otherwise in connection with any representation, statement or information on or contained in this report.
ASG endeavors to ensure that the information contained in this report is accurate as at the date of publication, but does not guarantee or warrant its accuracy or completeness, or accept any liability of whatever nature for any losses, damage, costs or expenses howsoever caused, whether arising directly
or indirectly from any error or omission in compiling such information. This report also uses third party information not compiled by ASG. ASG is not responsible for such information and makes no representation about the accuracy, completeness or any other aspect of information contained. The information, data, articles, or resources provided by any other parties do not in any way signify that ASG endorses the same.
AIRCRAFT SALES INQUIRIES:
Asian Sky GroupSuite 3905, Far East Finance Centre, 16 Harcourt Road, Admiralty, Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2235 9222 | Fax: (852) 2528 [email protected] | www.asianskygroup.com
Blu Inc Media (HK) Ltd2/F, Chinaweal Centre, 414-424 Jaffe Rd, Wanchai, Hong KongTel: (852) 2165 2800 | Fax: (852) 2868 1799www.bluincmedia.comAll editorial and circulation inquiries should be directed to this address
AIRCRAFT SPOTLIGHTA comprehensive market performance analysis of the BBJ 1, BBJ 2, and BBJ 3, plus an introduction to the BBJ MAX 8 & 9.
INTERVIEW: DAVID LONGRIDGE, BBJ PRESIDENT Speaking on BBJ’s success in Asia and the upcoming BBJ Max series.
MARKET SUMMARY -- JETSA model-by-model market positioning and average days-on-market analysis with featured pre-owned business jets.
MARKET SUMMARY -- HELICOPTERSA model-by-model market positioning and average days-on-market analysis with featured pre-owned civil helicopters.
06 30
08
14
36
22
39
55
29
CONTENTS
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 3
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4 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
AustraliaDomestic demand remained weak, as the unwinding of the resources boom continued to weigh on the economy. The current setup of increased political uncertainty post elections and the move by one of the rating agencies to move Australia to a negative ratings watch has arguably increased the constraints for a fiscal policy response.
ChinaThe combination of the fading impact of previous policy stimulus and no new incremental policy support in recent months has been weighing on the domestic trend. Fiscal spending and infrastructure investment growth have slowed down. Property investment growth, which had been one of the key drivers to the mini-cycle recovery, has also decelerated, as property sales growth has moderated due to the implementation of tightening measures in select cities with strong growth in property prices. Policy makers will likely implement defensive easing measures if growth continues to slow, but the pace of policy support is likely to be slower in the second half of the year, as compared to before.
Hong KongAll growth indicators in Hong Kong paint a picture of persistent weakness in aggregate demand. Retail sales, property transactions, loan growth, and exports growth are still in the contractionary territory and in some cases for an extended period of time. Retail sales declined for the 16th consecutive month, a further indication of the broad-based, persistent slowdown in the Hong Kong economy.
IndiaWithin domestic demand, two wheeler sales remain at robust levels and passenger car sales have rebounded in July. The pick-up in food prices over the last four months has meant that the transition to lower inflation has been delayed. In the last three months, the government has also embarked on a higher fiscal deficit.
IndonesiaConsumption-related indicators have shown some signs of stabilization recently, led by improving passenger car sales. The Bank of Indonesia has kept its policy rate unchanged after having cut it by a cumulative 100 basis points. No further rate cuts are expected from the central bank.
JapanWeak wage growth, an uncertain global economic outlook and a strong yen limited growth in Japan. Businesses and consumers have been reluctant to spend, resulting in negative GDP numbers in five quarters over the past three years. The government has unveiled a 269B USD stimulus package, in an attempt to jumpstart the economy.
KoreaPassenger car sales contracted by 10% YOY, in July, after the expiration of tax benefits in June 2016, which has boosted car sales in the preceding months. Retail sales had improved further in the month, which was largely down to a favorable base of comparison. After cutting policy rates in June, the Bank of Korea has stayed on hold in its subsequent monetary policy meetings. The fiscal stance is likely to stay conservative, due to concerns stemming from aging demographics, particularly the weak financial position of pension funds as well as financial stability risks.
MalaysiaExport growth remained in the negative territory for the 21st consecutive month, which has displayed signs of sluggishness compared to earlier in the year. Overall domestic demand is still subdued and car sales have continued to contract. Capital goods imports have bounced back into positive territory but have slipped at the margin.
PhilippinesThe strong run of growth in domestic demand has continued almost unabated, as capital goods import growth stayed well above 50%, while passenger car sales continued to expand at a double-digit growth rate. Export growth remained negative for the 15th month and has slipped further at the margin.
SingaporeMost growth indicators continued to contract on a YoY basis, indicative of the cyclical and structural headwinds that the economy is facing. The sluggish global growth environment, coupled with headwinds to domestic demand, will continue to weigh on aggregate demand trends.
Taiwan Consumption indicators including retail and auto sales have moderated, as subdued wage earnings growth continues to weigh on consumer demand. Recently, the government announced plans to boost investment through the provision of infrastructure support. These measures are expected to improve the domestic investment environment while enticing participation from the private sector.
ThailandGrowth within private consumption has held up relatively well, largely attributed to durable goods posting positive growth after a period of nearly three years. The economy has experienced a repeated pick up in the last couple months, but durability of this improvement in growth trajectory will be dependent on the policy response going forward, as well as external demand conditions.
A still subdued external demand environment and fading policy pass-throughs are weighing on aggregate demand in Asia (ex-Japan). In the near-term, the growth trajectory will depend on the trend in external demand, and monetary and fiscal policy response, which will likely remain defensive in nature.
Source: Morgan Stanley
ECONOMICS
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 5
GDP (B USD)*
BUSINESS JET FLEET AND GDP BY COUNTRY
BUSINESS JET FLEET † CIVIL HELICOPTER FLEET †
6,040 1,779
746
253
195
718
161163
134
111
77
3243
1 1
145
114
74
56
8
13
3
1715
29
3537
2,086
835
765751
319
157
113121
200197216
3139
308
181
145
64
141
5253
4947
37
232216
3
11,393
4,643
2,305
1,5151,464
965
538
424
361
316308304
208
22
5,495
1,709
1,1421,095
755
446
341
255236229200
145
10
2010 2010 20102011 2011 20112012 2012 20122013 2013 20132014 2014 20142016 Q1
2016 Q1
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q2
2016 Q2
2015 2015 2015
* GDP Source: Trading Economics.com
* 2014 & 2015 ASG data and historically adjusted using Jetnet fleet yearly increases.
† Business jet and civil helicopter fleet data obtained from ASG’s Fleet Reports. For more information, please download the Fleet
Reports from www.asianskygroup.com.
ECONOMICS
China
Japan
IndiaAustralia
South Korea
Indonesia
Taiwan Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Hong Kong
Philippines
New Zealand
Papua New Guinea
6 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
33+26+25+14+2+GRESPONDENT LOCATION BREAKDOWN
WHAT IS OUR CURRENT ECONOMIC STATUS?(QUARTERLY COMPARISON)
Asia Pacific Business Associated 29 (14%)
Central Asia 5 (2%)
Oceania 53 (25%)
210+ RESPONDENTS
Greater China 70 (33%)
South & East Asia 54 (26%)
33+24+22+12+9+GTOP 5 RESPONDENT’S COUNTRIES
Singapore 17 (12%)
Hong Kong 31 (22%)
Japan 13 (9%)
China 34 (24%)
Australia 48 (33%)
70+30+GRESPONDENT’S AIRCRAFT TYPE
Business Jets or Turboprops 152 (70%)
Helicopters 65 (30%)
27+47+26+G30+46+24+G30+48+22+G30+45+25+G27%26%
2016 Q3
2016 Q2
2016 Q1
2015 Q4
At Low Point
Not Reached Low Point
Past Low Point
30%24%30%
30%22%
25%
47%
46%
48%
45%
Neutral
For this quarter (2016 Q3), 26% of the total respondents believe that our economy has passed its low point and will get better. This is up from 22% in 2016 Q1.
In the ‘Economic Status’ section, the answers ‘Past Low Point’ and ‘At Low Point’ are described as ‘Optimistic’, as respondents believe that the economy will eventually get better. ‘Not Reached Low Point’ is described
In August 2016, 211 respondents participated in ASG’s survey on the mood and intentions of the current business aviation market – our highest response yet.
Regions with the most respondents include:• Greater China (33%, including Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau)
• South & East Asia (26%, including Japan, Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand)
• Oceania (25%, Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea)
Respondents were also from Central Asia (2% India, Qatar and United Arab Emirates), as well as those who live outside of the region but have associated business in the area (14% of total respondents).
as ‘Pessimistic’, because respondents believe the economy will worsen. Based on results from this quarter and previous quarters, we can see that the percentage of people holding a pessimistic outlook toward the economy has fluctuated minimally (45% to 48%) since 2015 Q4. This quarter results are at 47%. Over 50% of the respondents steadily hold an optimistic opinion and trust the economy will get better in the near future.
MARKET MOOD FOR CURRENT ECONOMICS
Pessimistic(Will get worse)
2016 Q3
2016 Q2
2016 Q1
2015 Q4
Optimistic(Will get better)
47%
46%
48%
45%
53%
54%
52%
55%
MOOD & INTENTIONS:ASIA-PACIFIC REGION SURVEY 2016 Q3
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 7
19+0+0+0+0 25+0+0+0+0 37+0+0+0+0 11+0+0+0+0 844+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0 37+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0 1914+0+0+0+0 19+0+0+0+0 33+0+0+0+0 20+0+0+0+0 1433+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0 33+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0 3414+0+0+0+0 20+0+0+0+0 33+0+0+0+0 21+0+0+0+0 1234+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0 33+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0 3317+0+0+0+0 26+0+0+0+0 28+0+0+0+0 19+0+0+0+0 1043+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0 28+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0 29Down 20% or more(<-20%)
Decreased
Down but less than20% (-20-0%)
The same (0%) Up but less than20% (0-20%)
The same
Up by 20% and more(>20%)
Increased
WHAT IS OUR CURRENT ECONOMIC STATUS?
54%
19%
44%
0% 100%50%
37%
19%
11%8%
25%
37%
14%
33%
33%
34%
20%
14%
19%
33%
14%
34%
17%
43%
26%
28%
28%
29%
10%
33%
33%
21%19%
12%
20%
33%
57%
80%
43%
38%
46%
43%
20%
57%
62%
Greater China
Optimistic Pessimistic
South & East Asia
Central Asia
Oceania
Asia Pacific Business Associated
2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3
When comparing this quarter’s opinions of economic status by region, a high of 80% of the Central Asia respondents are optimistic about their future economy. Over 50% of respondents in Greater China, South & East Asia, are optimistic about their economic future. For Oceania countries — in line with decreasing domestic demand in the Oceania regions — the market seems to be more pessimistic now as 57% of the
respondents believe the economy has not reached its low point, which is a significant 9% raise compared to last quarter. And for respondents that have associated business in the Asia-Pacific region, they are also pessimistic of the current economy and believe the economy will worsen in the future.
Regarding utilization, respondents were asked ‘what is your aircraft’s utilization compared to 12 months ago?’. 43% of respondents believed their aircraft utilization is down, which is 9% higher compared to the
last quarter. 29% of the respondents believe that their utilization has increased, which is 4% less compared to 2016 Q2. Aircraft utilization in the region has been steadily decreasing since 2016 Q1.
HOW IS YOUR AIRCRAFT UTILIZATION COMPARED TO 12 MONTHS AGO?
MOOD & INTENTIONS: ASIA-PACIFIC REGION SURVEY 2016 Q3
8 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
24+0+0+0+0 38+0+0+0+0 27+0+0+0+0 2241+0+0+0+0 25+0+0+0+0 42+0+0+0+0 4635+0+0+0+0 37+0+0+0+0 30+0+0+0+0 32
49+0+0+0+0 39+0+0+0+0 37+0+0+0+0 4735+0+0+0+0 27+0+0+0+0 32+0+0+0+0 19 16+0+0+0+0 34+0+0+0+0 32+0+0+0+0 342015 Q4
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q3
49%
41%
Much Improved
Worsening
PESSIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
OPTIMISTIC
OPTIMISTIC
BALANCING SIGNAL LINE
BALANCING SIGNAL LINE
Slightly Worsening Worsening continued
37%
42%
47%
46%
39%
25%
35%
35%
32%
30%
19%
32%
27%
37%
16%
24%
32%
27%
34%
22%
34%
38%
GREATER CHINA’S AIRCRAFT UTILIZATION TREND ANALYSIS
OCEANIA’S AIRCRAFT UTILIZATION TREND ANALYSIS
Decreased The Same Increased Signal Line
Decreased The Same Increased Signal Line
Decreased The Same Increased Signal Line
Continued worsening with total utilization expectation lowered
MOOD & INTENTIONS: ASIA-PACIFIC REGION SURVEY 2016 Q3
Improved with total utilization
expectation higher
50+0+0+0+0 50+0+0+0+0 23+0+0+0+0 3743+0+0+0+0 32+0+0+0+0 36+0+0+0+0 28 7+0+0+0+0 18+0+0+0+0 41+0+0+0+0 352015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3
50%
Slightly ImprovedPESSIMISTIC
OPTIMISTICBALANCING SIGNAL LINE
Much Im
proved with
total
utilization e
xpectation h
igherWorsening with total
utilization expectation lower
23%
37%
50%
43%36%
28%32%
7%
41%35%
18%
SOUTH AND EAST ASIA’S AIRCRAFT UTILIZATION TREND ANALYSIS
AIRCRAFT UTILIZATION:REGIONAL DIFFERENCES
An Optimistic-Pessimistic Signal Line has been added to regional aircraft usage trend analyses for Greater China, Oceania and South & East Asia regions. An optimistic mood is derived from more people indicating a ‘higher’ aircraft utilization than 12 months ago, and a pessimistic mood is derived from more people indicating a ‘lower’ aircraft utilization than 12 months ago.
Greater ChinaRespondents believe that aircraft utilization is decreasing and the trend is worsening. Since 2015 Q4, the total aircraft utilization has been decreasing, although there was a brief upturn in 2016 Q1. Eventually the total utilization trend has fallen into the pessimistic zone.
OceaniaAircraft utilization in the Oceania region (mostly Australian respondents) began 2016 with a positive response and improved total aircraft utilization. However, after Q1 the signal line has dropped from the blue zone and fallen into the pessimistic area. Total aircraft utilization has been worsening and the trend sees continuing into 2016Q4.
South and East AsiaSouth and East Asia – Since 2015 Q4 aircraft utilization levels in South and East Asia have been rising and the signal line entered the blue zone briefly in 2016 Q2. After Q2 though, the aircraft utilization signal line exited the blue zone, and like other area in Asia Pacific, a pessimistic mood towards aircraft utilization reformed.
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 9
Overall, aircraft owners are satisfied with the ‘operational safety’ (4.0 points, highest), and not satisfied with the ‘value for money’ (3.3 points, lowest) from their management companies. The Oceania region has the highest satisfaction level compared to other regions, particularly for factors such as ‘Value for Money’, ‘Operational safety’ and ‘Customer Service’. In Greater China, respondents are mostly satisfied with the factors ‘Operational Safety’ and ‘Quality of Maintenance’, but not satisfied with ‘Value for Money’. For South & East Asia, ‘Operational Safety’ is the most satisfying factor while the least satisfied factor is ‘Value for Money’.
MANAGEMENT COMPANY SATISFACTION KEY FACTORS (OUTER IS BETTER)
Quality of Maintenance
Quality of Maintenance
Value for Money (Price)
Value for Money (Price)
Quality of On-board Service
Quality of On-board Service
Operational Efficiency
Operation Efficiency
Customer Service
Customer Service
Operational Safety
Operation Safety
Oceania
Operator
Greater China South & East Asia
Broker
APAC Overall
OVERALL SATISFACTION BROKER VS OPERATOR (OUTER IS BETTER)
52+10+38+GDO YOU OR YOUR CLIENT OWN OR CHARTER
A PRIVATE AIRCRAFT?
Just Charter (10%)
Just Own (38%) Both Own and Charter (52%) Contact Broker (18%)
18+82+GPRIMARY CHOICE WHEN SOURCING
A CHARTER AIRCRAFT
Contact Operator (82%)
When asking ‘Do you or your client own or charter a private aircraft?’, 10% of the respondents would say they just charter an aircraft and 38% of the respondents say they just own a private aircraft. The remaining 52% would both own and charter an aircraft. For frequent flyers therefore who
When asking respondents to compare charter brokers and charter operators, we found that the satisfaction level of a charter operator is generally higher compared to a charter broker, except where the quality of on-board service is concerned.
already own a jet, chartering a jet for travel is still a reasonable option. When asking respondents what would be their source for chartering an aircraft, 82% would contact an operator first.
4.0
4.5
3.5
3.0
2.5
MOOD & INTENTIONS: ASIA-PACIFIC REGION SURVEY 2016 Q3
3.5
4.0
4.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
10 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
When asking our respondents about their preferences when purchasing an aircraft, most of them would still choose a large jet (i.e. G550, Falcon 7X) first. On the helicopter side, respondents prefer to buy a single turbine engine helicopter (i.e. Robinson R66, Bell 206).
Influencing Factors on Purchase Decision
This quarter, we simplified the influencing factors into four major categories: Need, Business Activity, Aircraft Price and Public Image and found significant regional differences. In Greater China, what concerns aircraft buyers the most is public image because they worried that the government / public would still consider buying a jet as a display of wealth and social hierarchy, rather than an efficient means of transportation. Given this overriding concern it is noteworthy that according to the survey results Chinese buyers are the least sensitive to price when making a purchase decision. In Oceania, the actual need and the current aircraft price stands in the way when buyers are trying to make a purchase decision. However, buyers don’t need to worry about public image when purchasing an aircraft. In South & East Asia, buyers are not sensitive of the current economic downturn and they indeed have the need for a private aircraft, but they do have a concern about their public image when purchasing an aircraft. Taking Japan’s survey results as an example, like China, the public image is the factor they are most concerned with, while they are also sensitive to aircraft prices, when making a purchase decision.Aircraft Price
Public Image
Need
Business Activity
OceaniaGreater China South & East Asia APAC Overall
28+0+0+0+0 29+0+0+0+0 4320+0+0+0+0 22+0+0+0+0 5820+0+0+0+0 22+0+0+0+0 5822+0+0+0+0 30+0+0+0+0 48PURCHASE INTENTION 2015 Q4 - 2016 Q3
Single Turbine Helicopter
Medium Jet
Large Jet
Small JetTwin Turbine Helicopter
Corporate Airliner
Turboprop/Piston Fixed Wing
Piston Helicopter
Yes, a new aircraft Yes, a pre-owned aircraft
No / I’m not sure
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
20%
58%
22%20%
58%
22%22%28%
43%48%
30% 29%
PURCHASE INTENTION - AIRCRAFT TYPE (OUTER IS PREFERRED)
PURCHASE DECISIONS - INFLUENCING FACTORS(OUTER IS LIMITING)
This quarter, 28% of respondents are considering to buy a new aircraft, which is a 6% increase compared to last quarter. 29% of respondents are considering to buy a pre-owned aircraft, which is 1% decrease compared to last quarter.
MOOD & INTENTIONS: ASIA-PACIFIC REGION SURVEY 2016 Q3
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 11
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GJCP 21073 - Asian Sky Quarterly - October 2016 2.indd 1 9/28/16 2:27 PM
12 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
COUNTRY PROFILE
JAPAN
Photo: Tokyo
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 13
CHANGE IS ON THE HORIZON
Airport, known as Haneda Airport. The Japan Business Aviation Association (JBAA), along with the Japan Civil Aviation Bureau (JCAB), and MLIT continue to make efforts toward creating a more business aviation-friendly market.
STATUS QUO
While the country pushes to open its doors wider to the industry, data from ASG’s Business Jet Fleet Report shows the market has grown over the past few years.
There are currently 53 business jets based in Japan, with 64% (34) of these in the long range and light categories and over half manufactured within the last 10 years. This is an increase since 2014, when the number of business jets based in the country was 44.
According to the JCAB, overall business aviation movements (arrivals and departures) in Japan are on the rise, with a 2.2% increase per year from 2010-2014. Internationally, movement is also increasing, with a 3.3% annual increase.
“Business aircraft sales transactions in Japan are not increasing, but there are stable demands — especially for ultra-long range business jets and very light jets,” says Airbus Vice President of Business Development Japan, Shingo Ueda. “Inbound activities from foreign countries to Japan are increasing drastically in recent years, thanks to the expansion of Haneda airport’s capability for business jets.”
Japan’s rotary market remains strong, with the third largest helicopter market in the region — 765 in total. The country’s geographic characteristics make it a natural place for helicopter operations. The Japanese fleet is dominated by medium-sized, light twin, and piston helicopters, at 77%, with the fleet involved primarily in multi-mission, EMS, law enforcement, and search and rescue (SAR) missions. The heavy and medium helicopter segments’ popularity in the country is attributed to the operational needs of para-public needs, often used by prefectural authorities.
“The para-public and civil helicopter markets are very well matured. The number of JCAB-registered helicopters has remained stable for the last decade,” explains Japan Helicopter Society’s Toshiro Tamaki.
INFRASTRUCTURE CHALLENGES
The JBAA, along with JCAB, and MLIT, have made considerable improvements toward creating a more accessible business aviation environment.
AS THE WORLD’S THIRD LARGEST ECONOMY, the ‘Land of the Rising Sun’ aims to develop into a more welcoming country towards the general aviation industry. Like the economy, expansion within certain aspects of the industry is stagnant. However, the Pacific island nation is confident that change is on the horizon.
Made up of over 6,000 islands — with four main islands: Hokkaido, Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu — Japan is considered a Great Power, with a strong work ethic, inclination toward technology, and government-industry cooperation, allowing the country to develop into an advanced society.
In recent years, the country has been plagued with issues that have the potential to suppress the economy, if not managed. According to the Statistics Bureau of Japan, in 2015 the country’s population was 127,110,000 — down by almost one million from five years earlier when the population was 128,057,352. The shrinking population is attributed to plummeting birthrates and an increasing amount of elderly citizens, with nearly one-third of the total population over 60 years old.
The country’s economy has shown modest growth, as well as suffering a number of recessions. Government stimulus pushed the economy toward recovery, until the 2011 earthquake and subsequent tsunami that killed over 15,000 people. Japan has since attempted to get back on track, albeit slowly, with the help of Prime Minister Shinzō Abe’s reform package ‘Abenomics’.
In early August, Japan’s Cabinet approved another economic stimulus package — totaling 28.1 trillion yen (276 Billion USD) — in an effort to once again improve the status of the economy. The package will focus on agriculture and tourism, as well as providing support for child and elder care to enable more women to work full-time. A large amount will also be set aside for infrastructure projects to help promote tourism – expanding ports for large cruise ships, upgrading airport facilities, and speeding up high-speed train project.
Politics within the island remain challenging, as the Prime Minister calls for a debate on rewriting Japan’s pacifist constitution, including removing Article 9 —renouncing war — and creating a more conventional and defensive army. The debate, supported by conservatives within the country, has caused alarm in neighboring countries, as well as domestically. Emergence of a stronger military would undoubtedly impact the aviation industry, as an increased demand for pilots and aircraft would be necessary.
A stronger military presence has added increased tension in relations with China. The two countries are currently working to dissolve territorial disputes over the Diaoyu Islands, in the East China Sea, as well as battling a long history of political disagreements.
While the country works to get on track, the aviation sector strives to become more business aviation-friendly. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) has worked toward accommodating business jets, particularly at the Tokyo International
Overall business aviation movements in Japan are on the rise, with a 2.2% increase per year from 2010-2014.
by Litalia Yoakum
COUNTRY PROFILE: JAPAN
14 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
EDUCATION
Since business aviation’s beginnings in Japan, the country’s values have led many to view the use of a private jet as an ‘obvious display of power and wealth’, according to Aviation Consultant Specialist, Jiro Kamimura.
Created in 2013, MLIT set up the Council for International Development of Aviation Infrastructure “to promote aviation infrastructure business internationally through public-private collaborative initiative.”
“Air transportation in Japan, including infrastructure, has been built mainly for commercial airlines,” says JBAA Managing Director & Secretary General, Makoto Tsunogae. “Most of the airports are designed and operated for commercial airliners, and in many aspects, regulations for airlines are applied to charter operations of small airplanes, which create a high cost structure for Japanese operators. In 2011, the government realized that business aviation is indispensable to draw the world economy into Japan. Since then, small but steady improvements have been made.”
A great part of increased business aviation movement can be attributed to the improved accessibility at the Haneda airport — which opened the airport up to more parking spots and a dedicated traffic lane, in September 2014. During this same year, 70% of foreign visitors to Japan came through one of three major airports: Narita, Kansai, and Haneda.
Again in April 2016, the increased accessibility toward business aviation aircraft, at the Haneda airport, was approved by the JCAB. The arrival and departure slots for business jets doubled from eight to 16 slots, per day. The Narita International Airport has also become more accessible toward business jets, after opening Premier Gate —Tokyo’s first dedicated business aviation terminal — in 2012. Narita International Airport, Chubu Centrair International Airport, and Nagoya International Airport also offer business aviation terminals.
Although changes are being made, there is still a lot of work to be done, as Jet Aviation’s Senior VP & General Manager U.S. Aircraft Services, David Paddock explains: “The overall market is restrictive and doesn’t allow for natural growth for business aircraft. They are prioritizing available space at airports for passenger airlines and cargo airlines and not general aviation.”
In reference to the doubling of slots at the Haneda airport, “For an airport the size of Haneda — in the city the size of Tokyo — whether you add
eight parking slots, or 16 slots for business aircraft, it’s still relatively small, especially when you look at the size of the city.”
Paddock when onto explain that the government needs to understand the benefit of business aviation, in order for more improvements to be made.
As minimal changes have come about in recent years, the number of support facilities has increased. Throughout Japan there are countless FBOs and ground handlers however, there are only a few full-serviced FBOs including Kobe Air Center - HirataGakuen at the Kobe Airport and Fuji Dream Aviation Engineering Co., Ltd at Mt. Fuji Shizuoka Airport. These offer arrival and departure clearances — customs, immigration, and quarantine (CIQ), as well as ground handling services. Although Kobe provides full services, opening hours are limited and arrangements must be made weeks ahead of arrival.
As Japan moves closer to the Rugby World Cup in 2019 and the 2020 Summer Olympic/Paralympic Games, the JCAB and JBAA will continue to create initiatives to further facilitate the business aviation environment in Japan.
Photo: Tokyo
In 2014, 70% of foreign visitors to Japan came through one of three major airports: Narita, Kansai, and Haneda.
COUNTRY PROFILE: JAPAN
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 15
COUNTRY PROFILE: JAPAN
4+26+11+10+38+11+G51+22+13+6+4+2+2+G
Business Jet Fleet — Size Category Breakdown
Business Jet Fleet — OEM Breakdown
Large 6 (11%)
Mid-Size 5 (10%)
Corp. Airliner 2 (4%)
Boeing 1 (2%)
Cessna 27 (51%)
Light 20 (38%)
Gulfstream 12 (22%)
Very Light 6 (11%)
Airbus 1 (2%)
Bombardier 7 (13%)
Hawker 3 (6%)
Dassault 2 (4%)
Long Range 14 (26%)
53
53
Organizations including the JBAA were founded on the principle of ‘popularizing the use of business aviation in Japan’. JBAA has made great strides in its effort to advocate for the industry and corresponding benefits.
TOURISM
An increased interest in tourism generally brings a boost in general aviation activity and operations. 2015 brought the highest number of international visitors — 18 million — to Japan, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO). The number of luxury travelers increased, as well, with a 35% increase from the previous year.
The country is particularly sought after by wealthy Chinese travelers, aged 18-36. The Chinese Luxury Traveler 2016 — a luxury travel report released by Marriot International, in partnership with Hurun Research Institute — listed Japan as the most “memorable destination for Generation Y luxury travelers in 2015” and their “most visited destination over Chinese New Year 2016”. Increased travel to Japan is attributed to the country’s proximity to China, shopping and dining experiences, and modern, sophisticated culture.
Japan ranks ninth globally (out of 141 countries) and second in Asia Pacific on the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index. The country’s success within the Index is credited toward a number of factors including culture and heritage, efficient ground and air transport, and information and communications technology (ICT) readiness.
Although the country is seemingly prepared to handle a continued influx of visitors, future events in 2019 and 2020 provide Japan with additional opportunities to showcase accessibility for tourists.
GOVERNMENT USE
As Japan positions itself to strengthen its military power, the country becomes only the fourth nation to test fly its own stealth jet — joining the US, Russia, and China. Although the jet — built with reduced invisibility to infrared sensors and supersonic speed capability — is being considered as the basis for a new fighter jet to replace the F-2, a decision will not be made until the end of March 2019.
The issue is not only with cultural customs but with educating the market on the significance of business aviation and its potential to support the economy.
While the use of a private aircraft is often seen as a luxury, it is important to educate the market on the significance it can bring to an economy. For corporations, an aircraft can be utilized as a business tool to operate efficiently and maximize productivity.
“Considering the number of multi-national companies in Japan, there should be huge demand for business aircraft in Japan,” says Ueda. “Once the market realizes the benefit of business aviation and some major Japanese corporations start buying business jets, then Japan market could be a potentially huge market for business aviation.”
According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), “Business aviation provides benefits for every party involved in the value chain of air transport. Any entity in the value chain of the business aviation industry, such as airports, major operators, business aircraft manufacturers, business flight pilots, major service providers and business aviation users, can benefit from growing business aviation traffic and its wider effect on a region.”
41+14+14+13+8+6+4+GHelicopter Fleet — Mission Breakdown
Corporate 108 (14%)
Flight Training 30 (4%) Multi-Mission 313 (41%)
Law Enforcement 102 (13%)
EMS 104 (14%)
SAR 63 (8%)
Private 45 (6%)
765
16 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
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Business Jets — Top Operators by OEM
Civil Helicopters — Top Operators by OEM
ACJ318 1 1
BBJ 1 1
Global 6000 2 2
Global Express 2 2
Citation CJ4 3 3
Citation Ultra/V 3 3
Falcon 900/C/DX 2 2
Gulfstream G650 2 2 4
Gulfstream IV/IV-SP 2 2
Gulfstream V 2 2
Total 5 4 4 3 3 3 22
% of Fleet 9% 8% 8% 6% 6% 6% 43%
Airbus Helicopters 40 46 21 8 11 25 11 12 14 13 201
Bell Helicopter 20 12 16 9 7 9 6 79
Kaman 3 3
Kamov 1 1
Leonardo 1 14 17 24 3 59
MD 9 3 12
Robinson 3 3
Sikorsky 6 1 14 2 23
Total 75 62 52 48 42 27 24 18 17 16 381
% of Fleet 10% 8% 7% 6% 6% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 50%
COUNTRY PROFILE: JAPAN
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 17
Photo: japan-guide
45+19+17+12+4+2+1+G3+37+21+20+19+G
Helicopter Fleet — OEM Breakdown
Helicopter Fleet — Size Category Breakdown
Airbus Helicopters345 (45%)
Medium 281 (37%)
MD 15 (2%)
Piston 147 (19%)
Others 10 (1%)
Heavy 23 (3%)
Light Twin 158 (21%)
Bell Helicopter 129 (17%)
Robinson 148 (19%)
Single 156 (20%)
Leonardo 88 (12%)
Sikorsky 30 (4%)
765
765
The testing comes in light of the proposed amendment to the country’s constitution, seeking to remove the war-renouncing article, which reads: “the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.” The article would be replaced with one that calls for increased military support.
Historically, general aviation has played a significant role in Japan. Government entities, including Prefectural Police Departments, Fire Departments, and the Japan Coast Guard utilize aircraft. Of the 765 helicopters within the Japan fleet, 76% are used in multi-mission, EMS, law enforcement, and search and rescue (SAR) missions. Of the 53 business jets within Japan, 46 are owned by government entities, with the remaining amount privately-owned.
For general aviation, a change to the constitution could have a tremendous effect on the industry. An increased military presence, will likely bring a sudden need for pilots. This coming at a time when Asia faces a dire shortage of pilots and Japan, specifically, faces the added challenge of a shrinking population.
Voting on the constitutional changes will require a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament, as well as a majority of votes in a public referendum. Should Abe’s proposal go through, this will be the first amendment to the constitution since its adoption after Japan’s defeat in World War II.
ROTARY MARKET
With the third largest helicopter fleet in the region, the archipelago of Japan has proven to have a more developed helicopter market than the business jet segment. The 765 helicopters are used most often for prefectural authorities including Prefectural Police Departments, the Japan Coast Guard, and the National Police Agency.
“Civil and para public helicopter markets are well matured, so the number of registration in JCAB has remained stable for the last decade,” says Japan Helicopter Society’s Toshiro Tamaki.
COUNTRY PROFILE: JAPAN
18 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
Although the fleet is one of the largest in the Asia-Pacific region, there is still growth that can be done.
“The extension of operation/mission hours is one possibility to expanding the helicopter market,” continues Tamaki, who believes the use of instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) operations are needed to help expand the market.
IMC is a flight category describing the weather conditions that require pilots to fly using the primary assistance of an instrument, under instrument flight rules (IFR). The typical conditions for pilots is flying under visual meteorological conditions (VMC), which are conditions in which there is sufficient visibility to fly the aircraft.
The use of an instrument to aid in less than ideal weather conditions is now being planned by JCAB and its Collaborative Actions for Renovation of Air Traffic Systems (CARATS) initiative. The initiative is aimed at enhancing aircraft safety and improving operation efficiency, as well as combating increasing airspace traffic.
MADE IN JAPAN
In a time when automobile and consumer electronics manufacturers are moving out of one of the leading car making countries in the world, Japan is now seeking to save face with the aerospace industry.
“The Japanese manufacturing industries will move out of Japan, where cheaper manufacturing costs are available,” says Aviation Consultant Specialist, Jiro Kamimura. “This is inevitable in any industrially matured nation.”
The challenge now is to prove that the country can successfully enter into the aerospace industry.
As the country strives to keep manufacturing jobs at home, The Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) — built by Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation — is at the forefront of Japan’s entry into the industry. The nation’s first locally built passenger jet in 50 years, since the YS-11 turboprop made by Nihon Aircraft Manufacturing Corp., is attempting to break through a market dominated by Embraer and Bombardier.
Although the jet has been overrun by costs, delays and aborted tests, 407 orders —including options and purchase rights — have already been received for the new aircraft.
A ban on aircraft production (until 1952), during the occupation of Japan after World War II, kept Japan’s aerospace industry from taking off. This was a period that coincided with rapid growth within the industry. The country still became involved with production of military aircraft and subcontracting work, however was unsuccessful with its own endeavors. One of Japan’s strongest ties to the industry is its
partnership with Boeing, of which the country was a major supplier for the Boeing 787.
The challenge now is to prove that the country can successfully enter into the aerospace industry, despite its rocky history.
FUTURE OF JAPAN BUSINESS AVIATION
Although the business aviation environment in Japan has progressed, there are still a number of improvements to be made.
“The most important issue on general aviation in Japan is that it is not well-recognized,” says Universal Aviation Japan Representative Director, Hiroshi Higashiyama. “An understanding by the public is important. If the market matures and develops, then the market should grow in the next 5-10 years. The key factors are the Rugby World Cup in 2019 and the Olympic/Paralympic Games in 2020. These big events are the final straw to grow the market. However, we’ll need to [continue] to plot strategies even after these events for even further development.”
“Competitive international environment, economic growth of developing countries, and a change in business decision making processes in Japan will bring steady growth to the business aviation market,” says JBAA’s Makoto Tsunogae. “However, most or part [of the fleet] will be overtaken by foreign-registered aircraft, unless cost structure of ownership and operations are changed.”
The world will now wait and see what Japan has to offer once the Rugby World Cup and Olympic/Paralympic Games come around. For now, the right steps are being taken to improve the industry.
COUNTRY PROFILE: JAPAN
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 19
Throughout the following pages, we have attempted to create a structure to analyse the market dynamics for the most prevalent business jets and civil helicopters models in the Asia Pacific region. We have analysed the most popular 26 business jets and 16 civil helicopters operated in this region, with the hopes of tangibly understanding whether timing is appropriate for potential buyers and aircraft owners to purchase or sell an aircraft.
MARKET INVENTORYThis section describes the amount of aircraft (in USD) currently for sale on the market and shows the trend and activity level of such market.
The Inventory Value Line represents the total number of aircraft (chosen models) for sale in US dollars, being the number of aircraft currently for sale on the market multiplied by their average asking price.
The Trend Line represents the difference between the 12 and 6 months moving averages of the Inventory Value line, indicating whether the market momentum is performing better or worse. A rising Trend Line indicates that the market momentum is moving towards a seller’s market, while a declining Trend Line indicates that the market momentum is moving towards a buyer’s market.
The Signal Line measures the average market trend over a period of 3 months. The signal line crossing above the trend lineindicates a possible recovery, while crossing below indicates a possible decline.
OFFER VS. DEMAND INDICATORSThis section shows whether some aircraft models are in demand (no. of transactions) in contrast with current offer levels (how many are for sale). It also shows for how long each model has been available on the market for sale on average. Those measurements can provide essential insights into the marketability of certain models versus others.
MARKET POSITIONING BY MODELThis chart presents the aggregates of four market indicators – relative supply, demand, attractiveness and market momentum – for each aircraft model analyzed in this report, in an attempt to qualify whether it is currently positioned in a buyer’s market, seller’s market or in a balanced offer & demand situation. The positioning of the last quarter is also shown to highlight the change and direction of any movement.
20 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
UNDERSTANDING
MARKET DYNAMICS
PRE-OWNED BUSINESS JETS MARKET INVENTORY
INVENTORY VALUE (USD)
This section shows market value and trend indicators for the worldwide fleet of 26 popular business jet models as covered in this report.
MARKET DYNAMICS
In the 24 months up to August 2016, the value of the pre-owned business jets’ inventory for sale grew from $5.8 billion to $7.9 billion USD – an increase of 35% – and now represents 10.2% of the entire fleet (chosen models) in numbers, suggesting a relative abundance of aircraft for sale.
Since February 2016, the value of the pre-owned jet inven-tory for sale has stabilised, due to a combination of lowering asking prices and a recent halt in additional aircraft on offer. July and August 2016 were the only 2 consecutive months in 2 years where both aircraft prices and availability have decreased. With the average days on market now being near its highest in years (311 days), the business jet market
trend still shows currently “Buyer’s Market” characteristics where prices are continuing to be driven lower and buyers have many options to choose from.
There was an average of 20.8 pre-owned business jets sold per month over the last 12 months, decreasing from an average of 21.9 per month last quarter. With average asking prices falling at a higher rate (-8.5% per year) versus last quarter (-6.5% per year) and availability having stabi-lised around 390 jets for sale since last April, the business jet market in the coming quarters is now looking to return towards a healthier position where supply and demand are balanced.
Source: JETNET & ASGTHIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 21
Inventory Value
Trend Line
Signal Line
26
17
31
2020
12
2118
15 15
2521
24
26
1821
16
22
26
13 11
2427
Sep2014
JunOct Jul AugNov Dec Feb MarJan2015
Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2016
Feb Mar Apr MayJul
35
$5,842 M
$7,880M
BUYER’S MARKET
AIRCRAFT SOLD
MARKET TREND
RECOVERY
RECOVERY
DECLINE
$8,244MAPRIL 2016
The pre-owned business jet inventory value level since February 2016, the market is now heading towards a healthier and balanced offer/demand position. However, some models have significantly reduced their market offer/demand ratio (price inflation pressure) – such as the ACJ319, Falcon 7X, F900EX, G200 and G650. Conversely Increasing their market offer/demand ratio (price deflation pressure) were the CL604, Global 6000 and Legacy 600/650, indicating either an increase in offer, a reduction in demand, or both. The average days for sale on market for the fleet has
slightly increased from 312 to 326 days and is continuing to increase. Taking longer than average to sell are the ACJ318, BBJ, BBJ 2, CL850, Legacy 600, Falcon 2000S and F900EX/Easy models. Taking a lower-than-average time to sell are the ACJ319, Challenger 604/605, Global 5000 & 6000, Legacy 650, Lineage 1000, Falcon LX/LXS, 7X, 900DX/LX, G200/280 and G450/550/650/ER.
22 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
OFFER VS. DEMAND INDICATORS
OFFER VS. DEMAND RATIO AVG. DAYS ON MARKET
BUSINESS JETS
SHORTER TIMETO SELL
2016 Q3
LONGER TIMETO SELL
OFFER LOWER THAN DEMAND
% OF FLEET FOR SALE
BUSINESS JETMODEL
Pre-owned Sales - Last 12 Months Q3 2016
OFFER HIGHERTHAN DEMAND
0 200 400 600 800
NO TRANSACTION
NO TRANSACTION
NO TRANSACTION
NO TRANSACTION
0
Avg. AC for sale / Total sold in last 12 months Average Days For Sale on Market
50% 10.2% Avg.100%150%200%250%300%350%
ACJ31820.0%
ACJ3199.9%
BBJ10.8%
BBJ 29.5%
CL60411.3%
CL60510.8%
CL85014.9%
GL500010.8%
GL60006.0%
L60017.8%
L65017.8%
L100014.8%
F2000LX9.2%
F2000LXS1.9%
F2000S3.2%
F7X12.0%
F900DX8.3%
F900EX9.3%
F900EXe9.2%
F900LX18.4%
G20015.9%
G2804.2%
G4507.8%
G5506.2%
G6508.3%
G650ER7.4%
AVERAGE
AIR
BUS
BOEI
NG
BOM
BARD
IER
EMBR
AER
DASS
AU
LTG
ULF
STRE
AM
AVER
AGE
MARKET DYNAMICS
Source: JETNET & ASG
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 23
AIR
BUS
BOEI
NG
BOM
BARD
IER
EMBR
AER
DASS
AU
LTG
ULF
STRE
AM
More buyers than sellers or Higher prices to sell or More transactions
BalancedOffer & Demand
More sellers than buyers or Lower prices to buy or Fewer transactions
MARKET POSITIONING BY MODELBUSINESS JETS
ACJ318
ACJ319
BBJ
BBJ 2
CL604
CL605
CL850
GL5000
GL6000
L600
L650
L1000
F2000LX
F2000LXS
F2000S
F7X
F900DX
F900EX
F900EXe
F900LX
G200
G280
G450
G550
G650
G650ER
Market Position 2016 Q2
Market Position 2016 Q3
SELLER’S MARKET BUYER’S MARKET
The graphs above provide a visual representation of the ‘market position’ of each aircraft model analysed in this report relative to each other and to what could be considered as a balanced market demand and offer status according to four market indicators: the percentage of aircraft for sale relative to its fleet size, the number of aircraft sold relative to the average number for sale, the average days for sale on the market relative to all models’ average days on market, and the momentum of the marketplace, whether it is moving towards a buyer’s or seller’s market as a whole as portrayed earlier.
Interestingly, most business jet models have continued to approach a healthier and more balanced market offer/demand position. Nearly
every model is reaching towards a balanced position, except for the ACJ318 which still trails behind. From a buyer’s perspective therefore now is a timely opportunity to buy as the bottom of the market appears in sight and sellers are finally accepting lower prices. From a seller’s perspective, if the pre-owned business jet market reaches an offer-demand equilibrium within the following 1 or 2 quarters, asking prices may finally halt their descent and represent the end of the urgency to sell.
MARKET DYNAMICS
Source: JETNET & ASG
This section shows market value and trend indicators for the worldwide fleet of 16 popular helicopter models as covered in this report.
In the 24 months up to August 2016, the value of the civil helicopter pre-owned inventory for sale has increased by 59%, from 683M to 1087M USD, exhibiting the effects of a sudden change in December 2014 from a relatively stable situation before that time. With now 4.7% of the civil helicopter fleet for sale (16 chosen models), this market remains significantly depressed despite a recent stabilisation at around 200 aircraft for sale. Average asking prices have remained strong since April 2016 (+6.4% annual average) despite average days for sale on the market breaking a new
high at 493 days. The number of aircraft sold per month has remained in line with the 12-month average of 6 helicopters per month.
With the uncertainty of leasing helicopter fleets potentially becoming available on the market, it is still too early to predict whether the market will remain in a Buyer’s Market position, or if it will continue towards a balanced supply/offer situation.
MARKET DYNAMICS
24 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
OFFER VS. DEMAND RATIO
INVENTORY VALUE (USD)
PRE-OWNED CIVIL HELICOPTERS MARKET INVENTORY
Inventory Value
Trend Line
Signal Line
$683 M
$648 M
$1,087 M
$1,158 M2016 Q2
BUYER’S MARKET
MARKET TREND
AIRCRAFT SOLD
Sep2014
Oct Nov Dec Feb MarJan2015
Apr May Jun JunAug AugSep Oct Nov Dec Jan2016
Feb Mar Apr MayJul Jul
9
3
8 85
8810
65
11
15
47
2 24
12
57
4 576
DECLINE
DECLINE
Source: JETNET & ASG
The pre-owned civil helicopter inventory value for sale is indicating signs of a potential course reversal with the average offer-to-demand ratio coming down from 328% to 276%. Although prices themselves have yet to come down and transactions are flat and relatively stable. The S92A, AW109SP GN and EC135T2 models all currently enjoy more demand than number of aircraft on offer, however with average days for sale now having increased from 467 to 502 days for the fleet, sellers of lower demand models such as the Sikorsky S76C+/++, the Bell 412EP/
HP, AW109E PWR, AS332L1, EC155B and H155 Will need to adjust their price downwards to complete a transaction. With 4.7% of the fleet for sale, a low but steady level of transactions from a stable inventory, little movement in prices and aircraft staying longer on the market, it is still unclear whether the civil helicopter market will remain in a Buyer’s Market position, or improve towards easier marketability.
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 25
NO TRANSACTION
HELICOPTERMODEL
OFFER VS. DEMAND RATIO AVG. DAYS ON MARKET
CIVIL HELICOPTERS2016 Q3
% OF FLEET FOR SALE
Pre-owned Sales - Last 12 Months Q3 2016
SHORTER TIMETO SELL
LONGER TIMETO SELL
OFFER HIGHERTHAN DEMAND
OFFER LOWER THAN DEMAND
SIKO
RSKY
BELL
HEL
ICO
PTER
LEO
NA
RDO
AIR
BUS
HEL
ICO
PTER
S
050%100%150%200%250%300%350%
S76C+16.7%
S76C++7.5%
S92A1.4%
BELL 412EP2.9%
BELL 412HP5.9%
BELL 4293.0%
AW1392.4%
AS332L19.0%
H2252.9%
EC135P25.8%
EC135T22.1%
EC1451.4%
EC155B26.7%
H1557.1%
AW109E PWR14.5%
AW109SP GN2.8%
AVER
AGE
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
AVERAGE
Avg. AC for sale / Total sold in last 12 months Average Days For Sale on Market
4.7% Avg.
OFFER VS. DEMAND INDICATORS
Source: JETNET & ASG
MARKET DYNAMICS
MARKET DYNAMICS
26 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
SIKO
RSKY
BELL
HEL
ICO
PTER
LEO
NA
RDO
AIR
BUS
HEL
ICO
PTER
S
S76C+
S76C++
S92A
BELL 412EP
BELL 412HP
BELL 429
AW139
AS332L1
H225
EC135P2
EC135T2
EC145
EC155B
H155
AW109E PWR
AW109SP GN
More buyers than sellers or Higher prices to sell or More transactions
BalancedOffer & Demand
More sellers than buyers or Lower prices to buy or Fewer transactions
CIVIL HELICOPTERS
SELLER’S MARKET BUYER’S MARKET
Market Position 2016 Q2
Market Position 2016 Q3
Uncharacteristically, helicopter average asking prices have not depreciated as one would have expected following a sudden increase of availability on the market, and sales have continued at the same average levels of 6 to 8 sales per month, although taking a much longer time to conclude. As the number of helicopters offered on the market has stabilised around 200 since March 2016, most models have now
seen their position shift from a clear Buyer’s Market position towards a more balanced market territory. The S76C+, AW109E PWR, AS332L1, EC155B and H155 all remain in a Buyer’s Market situation, with the S92A, Bell 412EP/429, AW109SP GN, EC135P2/T2 and EC145 are exhibiting some neutral market offer-demand characteristics.
MARKET POSITIONING BY MODEL
Source: JETNET & ASG
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 27
MARKET POSITIONING BY MODEL
Launched in 2004, VistaJet has enjoyed the accolade of being deemed one of the world’s fastest growing private aviation companies – offering private jet services through its
Flight Solutions Program and On-Demand solutions. The business model eliminates operational and residual value risks, factors often accompanying aircraft ownership. With the number of flights to Asia increasing by 62% and number of passengers to the region increasing by 57% year-on-year, VistaJet is now looking to capitalize on this growing market.
“We have a very unique business model,” says VistaJet President of North Asia, Leona Qi. “We own our entire fleet and the customer only really pays for the hours they’re in the air. Owning an aircraft comes with risks; VistaJet’s model eliminates that.”
With over 65 aircraft to the company name, the VistaJet fleet is capable of taking clients almost anywhere they desire. “As long as it’s safe and the runway is long enough, we’ll fly our customers there,” explains Qi.
The fleet, made up of large-cabin Bombardier Global and Challenger private jets, has an average age of just 18 months. Clients registered for the Flight Solutions Program have 24/7 guaranteed access to the fleet, anywhere in the world.
Although the business model may suggest an inclination for programs over ownership, Qi affirms that VistaJet is not exclusively for those that don’t own an aircraft. “A lot of our customers are aircraft owners themselves, using VistaJet for supplemental hours or for longer distance. Our fleet is super medium to long range. If a client owns an aircraft in Asia with a maximum range of six hours and they want to go to the US or Europe, then they’d be more than happy to use an aircraft through VistaJet.”
Currently, VistaJet covers about 90% of the globe with more established markets in Europe, the Middle East, and Russia. With flight traffic constantly increasing in Asia, the company is now focusing more attention on this market. “At VistaJet, we’re very excited about the Asia market – especially China,” says Qi. “Looking at the movements [in the region], we believe this market will continue to grow over the coming years.”
“VistaJet is seeing some changes in the market, in terms of what businesses are demanding. We see a lot of businesses and individuals moving away from private ownership, because of the need for complete flexibility. This is where VistaJet can step in.”
The subscription model offers a compelling proposition for the region’s growing number of high-net-worth-individuals, corporations, and entrepreneurs who value the time saving benefits of private flight without asset risk.
Qi stresses the importance of tailor-made experiences onboard a VistaJet flight for maximum comfort and a home-like feeling. As for particular customer service within the Asia-Pacific region, VistaJet will continue to go above and beyond. “From the most basic, we have people that speak the languages of our clients -- from our customer service team to cabin hostesses on board. Catering is also something we take into consideration.” These are just a few of the smaller details that the company takes into consideration when preparing a flight for Asian clients.
VistaJet joined the tech realm in March 2016, launching a VistaJet mobile application to make booking easy and convenient. “Customers can book a flight, along with other details on line,” explains Qi. “In our business, it’s important to have actual humans reply to customers, but in this day and age we do find a lot of customers appreciate the flexibility and convenience of a mobile app and online services.”
With continued unmatched customer service and infinite accessibility to support services, VistaJet now looks to the future. “Our slogan is ‘Think Global’. We want to provide our clients with global and consistent service. We are committed to offering the best.”
The company’s commitment to its service is to continue to expand past the 90% of the globe it has already covered, as well as focusing on less-established markets. “The company launched in 2004 and we’ve come a long way over the last decade. In 2006, VistaJet traveled to about 233 destinations carrying less than 5,000 passengers. In 2015, we have landed in close to 15,000 airports and about 37,000 passengers worldwide have traveled with us. Our growth has been quite steep over the past few years.” Asia is now a priority market for the company.
“VistaJet has a lot of entrepreneurial spirit,” says Qi. “We’ve done a lot of growing and will continue to do so. In terms of business aviation, the best and the most competitive will continue to grow – and VistaJet is one of the best and most competitive.”
www.vistajet.com
EXPANDING THE MARKET
Interview by Litalia Yoakum
INTERVIEW WITH LEONA QI VISTAJET PRESIDENT OF NORTH ASIA
AIRCRAFT SPOTLIGHT BOEING BBJLaunched as a joint venture between Boeing and General Electric in 1996, the Boeing Business Jet (BBJ) was created in response to the demand for an airliner-sized business jet. Based on the 737 airliner — one of the best-selling commercial aircraft of all time — the BBJ is specially modified to provide for the private jet sector. The BBJ prides itself on a luxury configuration that comfortably fits up to 60 passengers and its long-range is often deemed a main selling point.
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 29
The first and most popular aircraft of the series, the BBJ is based on the 737-700 airframe with the wing from the 737-800, which is very practical combination for corporate travelers. The BBJ offers plenty of space with a typical configuration consisting of four cabin areas: a boardroom, a lounge, a VIP bedroom, and business office. This aircraft is also a popular choice among government entities and corporations, which generally require a higher density configuration. Alternatively, privately owned BBJs typically have a more luxurious configuration, designed to carry only around 20 passengers. The ability to customize each BBJ is additionally a major selling point for the aircraft. The cabin volume for this aircraft is 5,396 cubic feet and can fly passengers up to 6,235 nautical-miles, including nine auxiliary fuel tanks.
After the worldwide success of the BBJ came the BBJ 2, offering even more cabin space than the BBJ, with a 21% increase in cabin volume. The airframe of the BBJ 2 is based off the Boeing 737-800 and it also offers an increased payload capability. It has the capacity for up to seven auxiliary fuel tanks and the BBJ 2 can fly 5,620 nautical-miles. The first delivery of a BBJ 2 was in 2001.
In 2005, Boeing announced an even larger BBJ 3 that was produced a year later. The BBJ 3 is based off the 737-900ER and has 35% more cabin volume than the original BBJ. It is also 28 feet longer than the original and weighs 16,700 pounds more at takeoff. The BBJ 3 has up to eight auxiliary fuel tanks and a range of 5,495 nautical miles.
The first edition of the BBJ series is the most popular of the three BBJ models — with 130 jets in the worldwide fleet. The BBJ 2, produced in 2001, has a worldwide fleet size of 21 jets and the BBJ 3 has a fleet size of 6. Currently, there are 13 BBJs available on the market and 2 pending transactions. The 15 aircraft range in age from 1998 to 2011.
The lowest asking price is 21.75M USD and the highest is 59.5M USD, with an average asking price of 41.7M USD. Two BBJ 2s are also available: a 2001 model, priced at 38.9M USD, and a 2012 model, priced at 95M. The average days spent on the market for the BBJ is 607 and 529 days for the BBJ 2.
1999
1999
1998
1998
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
2015
2016
2016
Asking prices have slowly depreciated over the last year and a half. In September of 2015, the average asking price was 46M USD and in October of 2014, the average asking price was 50M USD. The biggest factor driving asking prices tends to be which completion facility did the cabin outfitting.
When examining the overall fleet, there are 157 worldwide in operation with the majority of these based in the US, followed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and China. Of those available for sale, six are based in the Middle East.
Overall, the demand for large-cabin, long-range business jets is down from previous years, a decline that can be attributed to dropping prices in the oil industry and the strengthening of the US dollar against other currencies. While the market is down across the board, pre-owned BBJs still have increasing interest, particularly in greater China, where large-cabin, long-range jets are favored.
When comparing the BBJ family to comparable sized aircraft (ACJs, CL850, and Lineage 1000E), BBJ is leading the market. In the past 12 months, eight BBJ 1s have been sold and one BBJ 2. This is exceptionally well, compared to the ACJ 319 which sold five, the Challenger 850 which sold five as well and the Lineage 1000/E which sold only two.
The Max 7, the BBJ Max family member replacing the BBJ, formally launched in July 2016, will be ready for delivery in 2022. As the delivery date is too far out, the Max 7 is not expected to impact prices on the pre-owned market. However, a pre-owned BBJ is deemed an ideal interim aircraft for any of the new members of the BBJ Max family. So, it is likely that when the Max 8, Max 9 or Max 7 start deliveries, many owners will look to exit their pre-owned aircraft and enter the latest Max, expanding the pre-owned market even further.
As prices continue to drop for older pre-owned BBJs, there is a corresponding increase in BBJ purchases indicating it is a buyer’s market. Prospective buyers now have the luxury to wait for the best opportunities.
FLEET AGE DISTRIBUTION
Year of Delivery
AIRCRAFT SPOTLIGHT
Year of Manufacturing
0
0
5
5
10
10
15
15
20
20
30
30
25
25
BBJ 1
BBJ 1
BBJ 2
BBJ 2
BBJ 3
BBJ 3
30 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
REF MODEL YOD Airframe Time ASKING PRICE DOM PAX AUX TANKS
1 BBJ 1 1999 9,926 Make Offer 603 23 3
2 BBJ 1 1998 3,743 $ 21,950,000 672 18 9
3 BBJ 1 1999 4,478 $ 37,000,000 43 19 5
4 BBJ 1 1999 11,415 $ 21,750,000 245 23 5
5 BBJ 1 2000 7,296 $ 26,000,000 119 18 7
6 BBJ 1 1999 8,891 Make Offer 117 26 3
7 BBJ 1 1999 6,891 $ 39,500,000 Off Market 18 7
8 BBJ 1 2002 4,848 Make Offer 428 18 7
9 BBJ 1 2003 5,906 Make Offer 168 22 5
10 BBJ 1 2001 3,864 $ 35,000,000 1,372 33 6
11 BBJ 1 2006 1,818 $ 59,500,000 769 15 7
12 BBJ 1 2007 2,849 $ 56,950,000 2,055 19 6
13 BBJ 1 2008 2,105 $ 48,950,000 692 16 7
14 BBJ 1 2008 163 Make Offer 1,125 18 7
15 BBJ 1 2010 955 $ 56,000,000 902 28 7
16 BBJ 1 2011 1,240 $ 56,000,000 791 27 7
17 BBJ 2 2001 10,554 $ 38,900,000 557 29 5
18 BBJ 2 2012 550 $ 95,000,000 336 19 6
AIRCRAFT SPOTLIGHT
BBJ 1/2 - PRICE VS AGE-TIME SCORE
BBJ PRICE VS AGE-TIME SCORE
MAKE OFFER
BBJ 1 ASKING PRICE UNDER CONTRACT
TREND LINE FROM ASKING PRICES
Aski
ng P
rice
(M U
SD)
Age Time Score(2x Year of Manufacturing + Airframe Time)
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
10
5
7
12
11
15 16
13
3
41
6
9
14
8
* BBJ 1 No.2, and all BBJ 2 are not included in the graph.* No.2 and No.8 are currently under contract, No.8 is currently “make offer” on market.
Source: Asian Sky Group and JETNET
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 31
AIRCRAFT SPOTLIGHT
PRE-OWNED BBJ FOR SALE
INVENTORY VALUE (USD)
11
2
11
3
11
$812M
$5,842 M
$8,244M(Apr. 2016)
$514M
$683M $584M
$7,880 M
BUYER’S MARKET
DECLINE
RECOVERY
TOTAL BUSINESS JET MARKET(26 models)
NO. AIRCRAFT SOLD
MARKET TREND
TOTAL BBJ
Signal Line (MACD EMA 91 days)MACD Line (12-6 months EMA)
The graphs above show market value and trend indicators for the worldwide fleet of the Boeing Business Jet (BBJ) aircraft. The meanings of the Inventory Value, Trend Line and Signal Line are described in the Market Inventory section of this document on page 24.
Over the last 24 months up to August 2016, the value of the BBJ inventory for sale decreased from $683M to $584M USD, or -14.5%, suggesting a stable situation on the supply side. The demand side however, is still well below the average monthly offer, with only 5 sale transactions in the last 12 months, or 8 in the last 24 months. With the average of 607 days on the market for selling a BBJ being almost double the business jet fleet average of 326 days, the BBJ (and BBJ 2) is one of the least transacted pre-owned aircraft in the past 12 months, joining other models such as the ACJ318/319, CL850, L650, L1000,
F2000s, F900DX/LX, G280 and G650ER. Nevertheless, it appears the BBJ’s market situation continues to display some balanced market characteristics, which should put any buyers or sellers at ease.
Dec14
Jan15
Apr15
Feb15
Mar15
May15
Jun15
Aug15
Sep15
Jul15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
Sep14
Oct14
Nov14
Jan16
32 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
The baseline models of the BBJ family — which consists of the BBJ 1, BBJ 2, and BBJ 3 — are now being improved by the latest generation, the BBJ MAX series. Launched in April 2014 — with
an expected delivery of 2018 — the ultra-long range BBJ MAX 8 is the first member of the family.
Based on the commercial airliner 737 MAX 8, the BBJ MAX 8 will take advantage of the efficiency of LEAP-1B engines and Boeing developed advanced technology winglets. The new engine and winglet provide a 13% fuel-burn improvement, which results in a 6,555 nautical mile range — an increase of more than 14% over the BBJ 2. The BBJ MAX 8 has the same amount of cabin space as the BBJ 2 — 1,025 square-feet (95.2 square-meter) and is equal length at 98 feet and 6 inches (30.02m). It also maintains the advantages of a lower cabin altitude, seen in the baseline BBJ models.
To provide suitable ground clearance for the larger engines, the landing gear is lengthened so the aircraft will stand taller on the ground. The BBJ MAX 8 will employ fly-by-wire controls to the wing spoilers, as well as incorporate the addition of four 15.1 inch Rockwell Collins flight displays in the cockpit — the same displays that are on the Boeing 787 Dreamliner. Maintenance on the BBJ MAX 8 will also be easier, because of its enhanced onboard network system and self-diagnostic capabilities.
Following the launch of the BBJ MAX 8 comes the BBJ MAX 9, based on the 737 MAX 9 commercial airliner. It will be ready for delivery in
2020. The BBJ MAX 9 has a range of 6,375nm and a cabin size of 1,120 square-feet (104.05 square-meters), similar to that of a BBJ 3. The length is also similar to the BBJ 3 at 107 feet and 2 inches (32.66m).
Compared to the BBJ MAX 8, the BBJ MAX 9 has one additional auxiliary fuel tank (making eight in total), an increased length of 8 feet 8 inches, a strengthened main landing gear and wing, and a two position tail skid. The BBJ MAX 9 also has an increased Maximum Take-Off Weight (MTOW) of 194,700 pounds, up from 181,200 pounds for the BBJ Max 8.
The MAX program will continue to maintain the uncompromising cabin comfort of today’s BBJ, as well as providing increased range capability, an updated flight deck, lower noise, and reduced emissions. Buyers can also expect the BBJ MAX 7, which was announced at the Farnborough International Airshow in July 2016. Ready for deliver in 2022, users will be impressed by a range of 7,000nm, 800nm more than the baseline BBJ.
Since the launch of the MAX program, both the BBJ MAX 8 and BBJ MAX 9 have attracted plenty of attention from buyers. As of July 2016, Boeing Business Jets had 12 BBJ MAXs on order; 11 for the BBJ MAX 8 model and one for the BBJ MAX 9.
www.boeing.com/commercial/bbj
AIRCRAFT SPOTLIGHT BBJ MAX 8/9
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 33
AIRCRAFT SPOTLIGHT
BBJ MAX 8 BBJ MAX 9
SPECS
CROSS SECTION COMPARISON
MAX RANGE ADVANTAGE
WEIGHTS-LB (KG)MAX. TAKEOFFMAX. LANDINGMAX. ZERO FUELOPERATING EMPTYINTERIOR ALLOWANCE
CABIN - SQ FT (SQ M)*
CARGO VOLUME - CU FT (CU M)
FUEL CAPACITY - US GAL (L)
RANGE NM (KM)**
8 PASSENGERS
*AT FLOOR LEVEL**WITH 7 AUXILIARY FUEL TANKS
WEIGHTS-LB (KG)MAX. TAKEOFFMAX. LANDINGMAX. ZERO FUELOPERATING EMPTYINTERIOR ALLOWANCE
CABIN - SQ FT (SQ M)*
CARGO VOLUME - CU FT (CU M)
FUEL CAPACITY - US GAL (L)
RANGE NM (KM)**
8 PASSENGERS
*AT FLOOR LEVEL**WITH 8 AUXILIARY FUEL TANKS
181,200 (82,191)152,800 (69,309)145,400 (65,952)110,000 (49,895)18,000 (8,165)
1,025 (95.2)
713 (20.2)
10,420 (39,444)
6,555 (12,140)
194,700 (88,314)163,900 (74,344)156,500 (70,987)118,080 (53,560)21,000 (9,525)
1,120 (104.1)
874 (24.7)
10,944 (41,428)
6,375 (11,807)
35.9 M / 117 ft 10 inWINGSPAN 12.3 M / 40 ft 4 in
HEIGHT
39.5 M / 129 ft 8 inLENGTH
35.9 M / 117 ft 10 inWINGSPAN
12.3 M / 40 ft 4 inHEIGHT
42.2 M / 138 ft 4 inLENGTH
BBJ MAX 8 & 9
Traditional ultra-long range business jets
BBJ
3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
BBJ 2MAX 8
6,550
Range (nm)
MAX 9 6,375
660 nm of Additional Range
7 Tanks8 Tanks9 Tanks
BBJ 3
3.53 M / 11ft 7 in INTERIOR WIDTH
Source: www.boeing.com/commercial/bbj
34 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
CAPITALIZING ON AN ACTIVE ASIA PACIFICQ&A with David Longridge, BBJ President
Interview by Litalia Yoakum
With a growing market, the announcement of a new addition, and enthusiastic showings at business aviation shows across the globe, Boeing Business Jets has experienced an exciting few last years — in addition to marking its 20th
anniversary this year for the popular jet series.
The new BBJ Max family was launched in 2014, with the BBJ Max 8 which has a 6,555 nautical mile range, more cabin space than a BBJ 2, and three times the cargo space. The BBJ Max 9 was launched just a year later, with a 6,375nm range. The newest member of the family, the BBJ Max 7, was announced at the 2016 Farnborough International Airshow. This ultra-long-range aircraft boasts an impressive 7,000nm range and is set to be launched in 2022.
In the interim, the BBJ team is continuing to capitalize on the success of the BBJ family. David Longridge, a veteran of Boeing, is at the forefront of Boeing Business Jets as the President. Since 1996, 238 BBJ airplanes have been sold, including the BBJ, BBJ 777, BBJ 787 and BBJ 747.
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 35
What is the current outlook of business aviation in the Asia-Pacific region?
It’s very healthy. We are very happy about how things are going for Boeing Business Jets. We have a total of 53 BBJs, including narrow and wide bodies, in the Asia-Pacific region. The bulk of these (38) are the BBJ family – based on the 737. There are three additional 737s that were sold outside of the BBJ framework. There have been four 787s sold, two 777s sold, one 747-8 sold and five BBJ Max (our new variant) sold in the region. Overall, total sales are healthy for us.
In service, there are 36 BBJs. 33 of them are from the BBJ family, two from the 737s, and one 787. Relative to the size and expense of a BBJ this size and price range, there is a lot of market activity.
Is there one market that is more active than others?
Greater China is definitely the most active market in this region. We have 18 aircraft in service there, which amounts to 50% of the entire region’s in-service fleet. This includes the region’s first 787 BBJ. Of those 18 currently in service, 14 of them have entered service since 2014. This is relatively recent.
Greater China is also active, and doing particularly well, in the pre-owned market. In the last few months of 2015, five aircraft were sold to China and this year a few were sold, as well.
Why is BBJ doing so well in the Greater China market?
The number one reason this market prefers the BBJ is the product itself. Boeing Business Jets has the only aircraft that goes non-stop from Beijing to New York and back again – that’s the BBJ Max 8. The BBJ has about a 500nm range advantage over the next comparable business jet, which is an ACJ Neo. Aside from just the product, we offer a great product support organization and we have a dedicated field support representative in Beijing. We also have a fantastic sales force who really understand the Chinese market. It’s not just the product, but the team we have behind it; the BBJ team is enthusiastic, professional, and knowledgeable and the market is responding to this through sales.
What are the main differences between the market in the Asia-Pacific region and the markets of North America and Europe?
The biggest, most obvious difference for us between these markets is the pace of sales. China is by far Boeing Business Jets’ most active region. It is a knowledgeable customer base. And more so, the sheer size and pace of the market is outdoing other regions. Even when China’s economic growth is low, it still outpaces other regions. The distance that these customers are flying is often much longer than the distances of a customer in North America or Europe. This plays well into the BBJ market.
What can the market expect from the latest BBJ addition — the BBJ Max 7?
The BBJ Max 7 — based on the 737-7 Max airliner — will be ready for deliveries in 2022. It will be six feet longer than a current BBJ. It’s a bit smaller than a BBJ 2, but bigger than a BBJ, with a 7,000nm range. It will have a lower cabin altitude feature, for a maximum cabin altitude of 6,500 feet. It will also have the things in it that make the BBJ successful today, but it will fly further and be physically larger. This is a very exciting product and we believe this aircraft will sell very well.
The BBJ Max 7, 8, 9 and the BBJ 787 is a killer lineup. We would love to sell more 747 and more 777, but looking at the market the 787 and the BBJ Max will be the foundation of the market going forward.
Will the latest BBJ Max detract from the BBJ pre-owned market?
No, not at all. One of the things that amazes me about this market is its sheer depth and size. If you look at Gulfstream or Bombardier, the pre-owned market hasn’t slowed them down and they have a lot more to contend with than we do. The percentage of pre-owned aircraft available, relative to our total fleet, is in line with that of our competitors, so we aren’t worried.
A big segment of our market consists of new aircraft deals and there’s the other growing segment, which is the pre-owned market. A pre-owned aircraft is a great way to introduce people to what it’s like to fly an ultra-large business jet, if you’re moving up from, say a smaller jet. Some of these pre-owned BBJs are more financially within reach.
We believe that once you’ve flown on an aircraft of this size, with a shower, a bedroom, office, and a dining room, then it’s difficult to go back to a smaller aircraft. Pre-owned aircraft are a great way of introducing new customers to flying in a Boeing aircraft.
What can we expect from Boeing Business Jets in the coming years?
In the ultra-large business jet range, we expect to see relatively stable and steady sales for the foreseeable future. This is not an enormous market, so we don’t expect the numbers that Gulfstream or Bombardier may have. However, we do expect to sell between 6-10 aircraft annually.
Outside of sales, Boeing Business Jets has come a long way over the past few years. I worked for Boeing Business Jets in Western Europe 20 years ago. This company has a far more global brand, product and sales team than it did at the beginning of BBJ. Now, we have a nicely balanced market, where we can sell steadily.
Our product line will focus on the 737 max family and the 787. Probably more Max, but over time the 787 will still sell.
We’ll continue to enhance our products. We are just putting the finishing touches on the upcoming Max 7, which will join the BBJ family. The 787 continues to be a very exciting product for a specific part of the market place. As always, we will continue to market our aircraft and improve them — making them faster and more interesting. We’ll continue to stick to the perspective that when you buy an aircraft of this size, it’s all about putting what you want in the interior. We’re really pushing customization. Overall, we’ll continue to be a world leader in customer support, and provide that with enthusiasm and a knowledgeable team.
www.boeing.com/commercial/bbj
INDUSTRY INSIDER
36 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 37
AIRCRAFT POSITIONING
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000750550 1500
BUSINESS JETS Aircraft Total Yearly Cost vs Maximum Range
Source: ASG & Conklin & de Decker 2016
* Total Yearly Cost estimated using Conklin & de Decker 2016 industrial cost figures for aircraft acquisition cost on 10 years, plus yearly operating cost, plus adjustments to account for regional differences and financing.
TOTA
L YEA
RLY
CO
ST (M
ILLIO
N U
SD/Y
EAR)
MAX RANGE (N.M.)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
1819
20
908988
87
86
85
84
83
60
58
5756
55
54
53
52
5150
49
48
46
45
4443
42
41
40
47
38
37
36
35
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
2524
9
8
7
62
4
3
15
10
11
22
23
34
33
39
21
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
7267
66
6564
6361
62 71
70
6968
20
19
18
17
1615
14
13
12
59
83 Cit. CJ184 Cit. CJ1+85 Cit. M286 Cit. Mustang87 Eclipse 55088 HondaJet89 Phenom 100E90 Premier IA
Very
Lig
ht
22 CL60423 CL60524 F200025 F2000DX26 F2000EX27 F2000LX28 F2000LXS29 F2000S30 F900EX31 F900EX EASy32 F900LX33 G30034 G35035 G45036 G-IV37 G-IVSP38 Legacy 60039 Legacy 650
Larg
e
40 Astra SP41 Cit. Latitude42 Cit. Sovereign43 Cit. Sovereign+44 Cit. X45 Cit. X+46 CL30047 CL35048 F50EX49 G10050 G15051 G20052 G28053 H400054 H80055 H800XP56 H850XP57 H900XP58 L60XR59 Legacy 45060 Legacy 500
Mid
- Si
ze
61 Beechjet 40062 Cit. Bravo63 Cit. CJ264 Cit. CJ2+65 Cit. CJ366 Cit. CJ3+67 Cit. CJ468 Cit. Encore69 Cit. Encore+70 Cit. Excel71 Cit. Ultra72 Cit. VII73 Cit. XLS74 Cit. XLS+75 Diamond 1A76 H400XP77 L40XR78 L45XR79 L7080 L7581 Nextant 400XTi82 Phenom 300
Ligh
t
12 F7X13 F8X14 G55015 G65016 G650ER17 Global 500018 Global 600019 Global Express20 Global Express XRS21 G-V
Long
Ran
ge
1 ACJ3182 ACJ3193 ACJ3204 ACJ3215 BBJ 16 BBJ 27 BBJ 38 CL8509 CL870 CS
10 CL890 CS11 Lineage 1000E
Corp
. Airl
iner
38 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
AIR
BUS
ACJ319
$45.0
$49.5
$59.8
5
6
7
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
MARKET SUMMARY PER MODEL — BUSINESS JETS
ACJ318
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLD00
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
4,200 N.M. / 7,800 km (with ACTs)
Mach 0.82
19
$43.8
$42.2
$39.7
6 65
Source: JETNET & ASG
5 (25.0%) 39.7M USD 929
AVERAGE ASKING PRICE & NO. OF AIRCRAFT FOR SALE
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLD51
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
6,000 N.M. /11,100 km (with ACTs)
Mach 0.82
19
7 (9.9%)59.8M USD 261
MARKET SUMMARY — JETSBO
EING
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 39
BBJ 1
BBJ 2
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLD11
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
5,620 N.M. / 10,408 km (with 7 ACTs)
Mach 0.82
19
2 (9.5%) 67.0M USD 529
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLD81
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
6,235 N.M. / 11,547 km (with 9 ACTs)
Mach 0.82
19
14 (10.8%) 41.7M USD 607
Source: JETNET & ASG
$43.0
16
$42.7
$41.7
14 14
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
$39.2$55.6
$67.0
3
22
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
40 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
BOM
BARD
IER
MARKET SUMMARY — JETS
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLD318
247
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
CL605
4,000 N.M. / 7,408 km
Mach 0.82
9
CL604
4,027 N.M. / 7,458 km
Mach 0.82
9
41 (11.3%) 6.3M USD 310
31 (10.8%) 12.6M USD 196
BOEIN
G
FEATURED AIRCRAFT
2003 CHALLENGER 604 SN5557 5,700,000 USD4,300 Hours, 9 Pax
CHALLENGER 604/605
REDUCED PRICE
2000 GLOBAL EXPRESS SN9060 MAKE OFFER5,612 Hours, 14 Pax
[email protected]+852 2235 9222
Source: JETNET & ASG
$7.1CL604
$15.4
CL605
$13.0 $12.6
67
$6.3 $6.3
6772
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
Don’t miss an update! Subscribe to our mailing list and stay informed.
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 41
BOM
BARD
IERMARKET SUMMARY — JETS
CHALLENGER 850
GLOBAL 5000
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLD51
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
2,811 N.M. / 5,206 km
Mach 0.80
14
10 (14.9%) 9.4M USD 694
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLD94
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
5,200 N.M. / 9,630 km
Mach 0.89
13
23 (10.8%) 15.9M USD 266
Source: JETNET & ASG
$9.8
14
$8.8
$9.4
13
10
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
$21.0
13
$16.3$15.9
2423
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
42 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
BOM
BARD
IER
MARKET SUMMARY — JETS
GLOBAL 6000
SPECS
FOR SALE No. for sale Avg Asking Price
Avg Days on Market
SOLD 70
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
12 (6.0%) 40.0M USD 191
6,000 N.M. / 11,112 km
Mach 0.88
13
$41.5
5
$42.6
$40.0
12
5
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
Source: JETNET & ASG
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 43
DASSAU
LTMARKET SUMMARY — JETS
Source: JETNET & ASG
2001 FALCON 2000 SN152 MAKE OFFER5,474 Hours, 10 Pax
2000 FALCON 2000 SN112 5,900,000 USD5,350 Hours, 10 Pax
REDUCED PRICE
FEATURED AIRCRAFT [email protected]+852 2235 9222
2010 FALCON 2000LX SN223 MAKE OFFER1,237 Hours, 12 Pax
2011 FALCON 7X SN130 29,950,000 USD2,096 Hours, 15 Pax
$34.0$28.2 $27.7
21
31
23
FALCON 7X
SPECS
FOR SALE No. for sale Avg Asking Price
Avg Days on Market
SOLD 163
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
5,950 N.M. / 11,018 km
Mach 0.90
12
31 (12.0%) 27.7M USD 217
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
44 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
DASS
AULT
MARKET SUMMARY — JETS
2008 FALCON 7X SN32 24,700,000 USD1,882 Hours, 12 Pax
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FEATURED AIRCRAFT [email protected]+852 2235 9222
2007 FALCON 900EX EASy II SN181 21,800,000 USD3,560 Hours,11 Pax
2009 FALCON 900EX EASy SN205 MAKE OFFER2,669 Hours, 14 Pax
NEW ARRIVAL
Source: JETNET & ASG
2000S
3,350 N.M. / 6,208 km
Mach 0.83
10
FALCON 2000LX/LXS/S
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLD92
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
2000LX
4,000 N.M. / 7,408 km
Mach 0.83
10
11
14
19
2000LXS
4,000 N.M. / 7,408 km
Mach 0.83
10
$19.3 FALCON 2000LX
$27.9$29.0$30.0FALCON 2000LXS
$18.0$19.5
12 (9.2%)19.5M USD 246
1 (1.9%)27.9M USD 103
1 (3.2%)Make Offer 369
00
10
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 45
DASSAU
LTMARKET SUMMARY — JETS
Source: JETNET & ASG
$17.6
FALCON 900DX/EX/EX EASy/LX
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLD20
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
F900DX
4,100 N.M. / 7,593 km
Mach 0.83
12
41
33
36
AugAug Nov Feb May
2015 2016
103
70
21
F900EX
4,500 N.M. / 8,334 km
Mach 0.83
12
F900EX EASy
4,500 N.M. / 8,334 km
Mach 0.83
12
F900LX
4,750 N.M. / 8,800 km
Mach 0.83
12
$15.4
F900DX
$11.4F900EX
$21.7
$17.6F900EX EASy
$28.9$30.2F900LX
$33.7
$10.1 $9.5
$13.4 $13.0
2 (8.3%) 13.0M USD 156
11 (9.3%) 9.5M USD340
11 (9.2%) 17.6M USD712
9 (18.4%) 28.9M USD300
46 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
EMBR
AER
MARKET SUMMARY — JETS
FEATURED AIRCRAFT
2,295 HOURS SINCE NEW617 CYCLES SINCE NEW
2011 FALCON 900LX SN258
REDUCED PRICE
• ONE OWNER SINCE NEW
• AVAILABLE FOR VIEWING IN WILMINGTON, U.S.
• A/2A/A+/2A+/Z INSPECTIONS -
DECEMBER 2015 BY HAWKER PACIFIC
• CAMP MAINTENANCE TRACKING PROGRAM
• HONEYWELL MSP
• FALCONCARE PROGRAM COVERAGE
• HONEYWELL 2ND CERT EASY II AVIONICS
SUITE UPGRADE
• ADS-B OUT
• CPDLC
ASKING PRICE:
22.95M USD
LINEAGE 1000/E
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLD20
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
Lineage 1000
4,400 N.M. / 8,149 km
Mach 0.82
19
Lineage 1000E
4,600 N.M. / 8,520 km
Mach 0.82
19
4 (14.8%) Make Offer232
$39.0 $39.0 Make Offer
2
44
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
[email protected]+852 2235 9222
Source: JETNET & ASG
EMBRA
ER
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 47
MARKET SUMMARY — JETS
LEGACY 600/650
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLD141
71
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
Legacy 600
3,400 N.M. / 6,297 km
Mach 0.80
13
Legacy 650
3,640 N.M. / 7,112 km
Mach 0.80
13
31 (17.8%) 7.9M USD 365
16 (17.8%) 18.5M USD 224
$9.4
$21.4Legacy 650
Legacy 600
$20.2
$18.5
25
$8.3 $7.9
4247
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
FEATURED AIRCRAFT
586 HOURS SINCE NEW373 CYCLES SINCE NEW
2008 LEGACY 600SN14501069
NEW ARRIVAL
• ENGINE ENROLLED ON
ROLLS ROYCE CORPORATECARE
• AIRFRAME ENROLLED ON EMBRAER
STANDARD EEC (INCLUDING AVIONICS,
AIRFRAME, APU)
• COMPLETED 72 MONTH INSPECTION IN
NOV 2014 AND RVSM COMPLIANCE
• ADS-B OUT INSTALLED
• CAT II, RVSM CERTIFICATION
• DUAL FLIGHT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
• DATALINK CAPABILITY
ASKING PRICE:
9.3M [email protected]+852 2235 9222
Source: JETNET & ASG
2011 FALCON 900LX SN258
48 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
GU
LFST
REA
MMARKET SUMMARY — JETS
G200 & G280
3913
22
G200
3,050 N.M. / 5,651km
Mach 0.81
8
G280
3,600 N.M. / 6,667 km
Mach 0.84
8
39 (15.9%) 5.0M USD 288
4 (4.2%) 19.0M USD 143
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLDPast 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
2004 G200 SN102 2007 G200 SN1685,500,000 USD MAKE OFFER3,929 Hours, 9 Pax 6,651 Hours, 9 Pax
2007 G200 SN156 MAKE OFFER2,229 Hours, 9 Pax
NEW ARRIVAL NEW ARRIVAL
FEATURED AIRCRAFT [email protected]+852 2235 9222
$6.1G200
$18.6G280 $19.0
$22.6
$5.5 $5.0
36
46
43
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
REDUCED PRICE
2005 G200 SN118 MAKE OFFER7,812 Hours, 9 Pax
NEW ARRIVAL
Source: JETNET & ASG
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 49
GU
LFSTREAM
MARKET SUMMARY — JETS
Source: JETNET & ASG
2007 G450 SN4063 2004 G550 SN5015
2005 G450 SN40242007 G450 SN4117
12,250,000 USD 17,495,000 USD
13,495,000 USD MAKE OFFER
3,612 Hours, 16 Pax 6,299 Hours, 12 Pax
4,516 Hours, 14 Pax
NEW ARRIVAL
$22.0
$17.4
$15.6
25
2826
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
FEATURED AIRCRAFT [email protected]+852 2235 9222
26 (7.8%) 15.6M USD 293
259
REDUCED PRICE
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLDPast 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
4,350 N.M. / 8,056 km
Mach 0.85
13
50 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
GU
LFST
REA
MMARKET SUMMARY — JETS
2016 Q3
33 (6.2%) 28.3M USD 258
367
29
3433
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
$31.9
$29.4$28.3
ENTRY INTO SERVICE: 2009
1,357 HOURS SINCE NEW
552 CYCLES SINCE NEW
NEW ARRIVAL
• 18 PASSENGERS CONFIGURATION
• ENROLLED WITH ROLLS-ROYCE CORPORATECARE
& HONEYWELL MSP PLAN
• FORWARD GALLEY / FORWARD & AFTER LAVATORIES
• SATCOM / WLAN
• TAWS / TCAS / EVS / HUD
• ADSB-OUT
FEATURED AIRCRAFT
ASKING PRICE:
CONTACT FOR OWNER APPROVED BEST PRICING
2009 G550 SN5231
[email protected]+852 2235 9222
6,750 N.M. / 12,501km
Mach 0.87
18
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 51
GU
LFSTREAM
MARKET SUMMARY — JETS
$70.0
$63.5
$61.0
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
10
18
16
$75.0
$68.4 $69.0
11 (8.3%) 61.0M USD 200
4 (7.4%) 69.0M USD 145
145
32
2016 Q3
FEATURED AIRCRAFT
423 HOURS SINCE NEW139 CYCLES SINCE NEW
2014 G650 SN6109
• U.S. BASED & REGISTERED SINCE NEW
• HONEYWELL SWIFTBROADBAND HIGH SPEED DATA
INTERNET
• HONEYWELL DBS SATELLITE TELEVISION
• ENHANCED NAV & SYNTHETIC VISION
• FANS 1/A CPDLC/ADS-B OUT /RNP
• RUNWAY AWARENESS ADVISORY SYSTEM (RAAS)
• 15 PASSENGER, FORWARD GALLEY CUSTOM
CONFIGURATION
• TRANSFERRABLE MANUFACTURER WARRANTIES
• ENROLLED ON GCMP
ASKING PRICE:
61.95M [email protected]+852 2235 9222
REDUCED PRICE
G650
7,000 N.M. / 12,964km
Mach 0.90
18
G650ER
7,500 N.M. / 13,890km
Mach 0.90
18
2009 G550 SN5231
52 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
C
M
Y
CM
MY
CY
CMY
K
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 53
200 250 300 350 550400 600450 650500 700
CIVIL HELICOPTERSAircraft Acquisition Price vs Maximum Range
* Aircraft Purchase Price estimation using Conklin & de Decker 2016 industrial cost figures for aircraft acquisition cost.
AIR
CRA
FT A
CQ
UIS
ITIO
N P
RIC
E (M
ILLIO
N U
SD)
MAX RANGE (N.M.)
36
37
15
17
19
1618
20
2
4
3
1
5
21
29
25
33
23
31
27
35
22
30
26
34
24
32
28
8
10
12
14
7
9
11
13
0.1
0.5
2.0
8.0
0.3
1.0
4.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
20.0
24.0
28.0
32.0
15 AW109 GN16 H13517 Bell 43018 Bell 42919 MD 90220 AW109 Power
Ligh
t Tw
in
6 Bell 412EPI7 S-76D8 AW1399 H155
10 H14511 S-76C++12 AC312*13 EC14514 AW 169
Med
ium
1 AS332 L1e2 AW1893 H2254 S-925 H175
Hea
vy
21 AW119 Kx22 H13023 Bell 407GXP24 AC311*25 H12526 Bell 40727 MD 600N28 Bell 206L429 MD 520N30 MD 530F31 H12032 MD 500E33 S-33334 EN480B35 R66
Sing
le T
urbi
ne
6
Source: JETNET & ASG
AIRCRAFT POSITIONING
36 R44 Raven II37 R22 Beta IIPi
ston
54 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
EC135T2 & P2
SPECS
FOR SALE No. for sale Avg Asking Price
Avg Days on Market
SOLD Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
EC135T2
332 N.M. / 614 km
127 Knots
6
50
102
3 (2.1%) 1.8M USD 1,150
9 (5.8%)2.7M USD658
EC135P2
332 N.M. / 614 km
127 Knots
6
$2.2
$2.8 EC135P2
EC135T2
$2.6 $2.7
13
$1.8 $1.8
12 12
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
FEATURED AIRCRAFT2008 EC130B4 SN4601
ASKING PRICE:
MAKE OFFER
DELIVERY YEAR: 2015TOTAL HOURS: 1,698 SINCE NEWTOTAL CYCLES: 3,465 SINCE NEW
• UTILITY CONFIGURATION
• ALWAYS MAINTAINED BY AIRBUS HELICOPTERS
• ALWAYS HANGARED
• CARGO HOOK
• DUAL CONTROLS
• 7 SEATS CONFIGURATION
• AIR CONDITIONING SYSTEM
• EMERGENCY FLOATATION GEAR - FIXED PARTS
NEW ARRIVAL
[email protected]+852 2235 9222
AIR
BUS
HEL
ICO
PTER
S
MARKET SUMMARY PER MODEL — CIVIL HELICOPTERSAVERAGE ASKING PRICE & NO. OF AIRCRAFT FOR SALE
Source: JETNET & ASG
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 55Source: JETNET & ASG
2005 AS350B2 SN9072 995,000 USD946 Hours, 5 Pax, VIP
2013 EC135 P2+ SN1107 MAKE OFFER1,350 Hours, 5 Pax, VIP
FEATURED AIRCRAFT [email protected]+852 2235 9222
EC145
$4.5
7
$4.5 $4.5
1111
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLDPast 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
461 N.M. / 855 km
131 Knots
9
63
10 (1.4%) 4.5M USD 252
2008 EC145 SN9226 MAKE OFFER2,483 Hours, 8 Pax, Utility
2009 EC155 SN6847 4,950,000 USD980 Hours, 5 Pax, VIP
AIRBU
S HELICO
PTERSMARKET SUMMARY — HELICOPTER
NEW ARRIVAL
56 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
EC155B & H155
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLD00
11
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
EC155B
516 N.M. / 955 km
135 Knots
13
H155
516 N.M. / 955 km
150 Knots
13
8 (26.7%)Make Offer770
10 (7.1%) 5.6M USD479
*EC155B1 has changed its model name to H155
$5.7 H155
14
$5.7 $5.6
18 18
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
$3.3MakeOffer
MakeOffer
FEATURED AIRCRAFT
ASKING PRICE:
MAKE OFFER
DELIVERY YEAR: 2008TOTAL HOURS: 3,984 SINCE NEW
2008 EC155B1 SN6825
• EMERGENCY FLOATS (FP+RP)
• TOTAL 3,984 HOURS
• 12 SEATS OFFSHORE CONFIGURATION
• 5 SEATS CORPORATE CONFIGURATION
• WEATHER RADAR
[email protected]+852 2235 9222
FOR SALE
AIR
BUS
HEL
ICO
PTER
SMARKET SUMMARY -- HELICOPTER
Source: JETNET & ASG
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 57Source: JETNET & ASG
FEATURED AIRCRAFT
ASKING PRICE:
MAKE OFFER
DELIVERY YEAR: 2015FERRY FLIGHT HOURS/LANDINGS ONLY
2015 H225 SN2968
FOR SALE
• 19 PASSENGERS
• FERRY FLIGHT HOURS ONLY
• C-CLASS UTILITY OPERATIONS
• EMERGENCY FLOATATION GEAR WITH
AUTOMATIC FIRING
• CARGO SLING W/ DYNAMOMETER
• MULTI-PURPOSE ENGINE AIR INTAKES
(ANTI-SAND & ANTI-ICE FILTERS)
• COCKPIT & CABIN AC
$8.4$8.4 $8.5AS332L1
H225$25.5 $25.5 $25.5
9
1411
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
AS332L1 & H225
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLDPast 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
H225
452 N.M. / 837 km
142 Knots
19
AS332L1
452 N.M. / 837 km
142 Knots
19
11
5 (2.9%)25.5M USD 269
6 (9.0%)8.5M USD 489
22
[email protected]+852 2235 9222
AIRBU
S HELICO
PTERSMARKET SUMMARY — HELICOPTER
58 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
BELL
HEL
ICO
PTER
MARKET SUMMARY — HELICOPTER
BELL 429
2009 BELL 407 SN53939837 Hours, 7 Pax, VIP
MAKE OFFER2010 BELL 429 SN57021 MAKE OFFER338 Hours, 6 Pax, VIP
FEATURED AIRCRAFT [email protected]+852 2235 9222
Source: JETNET & ASG
8
$4.8
5
$6.1 $5.7
8
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
368 N.M. / 681 km
130 Knots
7
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLDPast 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
53
8 (3.0%) 5.7M USD 247
Don’t miss an update! Subscribe to our mailing list and stay informed.
FEATURED AIRCRAFT
ASKING PRICE:
MAKE OFFER
BELL 412EP/412HP
633 HOURS SINCE NEW
2010 BELL 407 SN53986
FOR SALE
• 6 PASSENGERS
• ONE OWNER SINCE NEW
• HIGH SKID GEAR
• CARGO HOOK
• FLOATS
• DUAL CONTROLS
• NO DAMAGE HISTORY
• 5 YEAR INSPECTION C/W JANUARY 2015
$6.7
$3.8 BELL 412HP
BELL 412EP
$2.9 $3.8
22
$5.0 $5.3
1920
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
SPECS
FOR SALE No. for sale Avg Asking Price
Avg Days on Market
SOLDPast 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
Bell 412EP
356 N.M. / 659 km
140 Knots
9
Bell 412HP
349 N.M. / 646 km
133 Knots
14
23
32
4 (5.9%) 5.3M USD 558
16 (2.9%) 3.8M USD379
[email protected]+852 2235 9222
BELL HELICO
PTER
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 59
MARKET SUMMARY — HELICOPTER
Source: JETNET & ASG
60 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016 THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 60
LEO
NA
RDO
MARKET SUMMARY — HELICOPTER
2008 A109S GRAND SN22114530 Hours, 5 Pax, VIP
3,295,000 USD
2009 A109E POWER SN11773 1,950,000 USD2,327 Hours, 6 Pax, EMS
2011 A109E POWER SN11784 2,950,000 USD1,179 Hours, 6 Pax, EMS
1,595,000 USD2006 A109E POWER SN116572,915 Hours, 6 Pax, EMS
A109E POWER/A109SP GRANDNEW
FEATURED AIRCRAFT [email protected]+852 2235 9222
$2.7$2.2 $2.1
A109E Power
A109SP GRANDNEW$4.9 $4.8 $4.9
58
63
58
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLDPast 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
A109SP Grandnew
480 N.M. / 889 km
130 Knots
7
A109E Power
353 N.M. / 654 km
139 Knots
7
92
60
4 (2.8%)4.9M USD437
54 (15.8%) 2.1M USD 595
Source: JETNET & ASG
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 61
LEON
ARD
OMARKET SUMMARY — HELICOPTER
AW139
2016 Q3
SPECS
FOR SALE 19 (2.4%)8.4M USD 518
No. for sale Avg Asking Price
Avg Days on Market
SOLD 102
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
568 N.M. / 1,052 km
140 Knots
15
$9.8
18
$8.8$8.4
17 19
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
Source: JETNET & ASG
SIKO
RSKY
62 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
MARKET SUMMARY — HELICOPTER
FEATURED AIRCRAFT
ASKING PRICE:
MAKE OFFER
S-92
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLD42
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
474 N.M. / 877 km
155 Knots
19
4 (1.4%) Make Offer 326
10,357 HOURS SINCE NEW
2005 S-76C+ SN760592
FOR SALE
• OIL AND GAS PLATFORM COMPLIANT
• ENROLLED ON SBH & PAP
• 12 PAX INTERIOR
MAKE OFFER
2
4 4
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
[email protected]+852 2235 9222
Source: JETNET & ASG
FEATURED AIRCRAFT
ASKING PRICE:
MAKE OFFER
SIKORSKY
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 63
MARKET SUMMARY — HELICOPTER
Source: JETNET & ASG
S-76C+ / S-76C++
SPECS
FOR SALE
No. for sale Avg Asking Price Avg Days on Market
SOLD40
21
Past 12 Months Past 3 Months
2016 Q3
Max Range
Max Speed
Typ. Passengers
S-76C+
335 N.M. / 620 km
155 Knots
12
S-76C++
335 N.M. / 620 km
155 Knots
12
144 (16.7%) 4.2M USD 489
214 (7.5%) 7.3M USD272
10,028 HOURS SINCE NEW
2001 S-76C+ SN760521
FOR SALE
• 12 PASSENGERS
• FREON AIR CONDITIONING
• UTILITY CONFIGURED
• EMERGENCY POP-OUT FLOATS & WINDOWS
26
4039
$8.4
$3.8 S-76C+
S-76C++
$4.5 $4.2
$7.1 $7.3
Aug Nov Feb May Aug2015 2016
[email protected]+852 2235 9222
2005 S-76C+ SN760592
64 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — THIRD QUARTER 2016
For inquiries, please contact [email protected] FEATURED AIRCRAFT
Note: “*“ means multiple aircraft available. The earliest manufacturing year is shown.
ROTA
RY
MODELAirbus Helicopters - AS350B2Airbus Helicopters - AS350B3Airbus Helicopters - AS355F2Airbus Helicopters - AS355F2Airbus Helicopters - AS355NAirbus Helicopters - EC135 P2+Airbus Helicopters - EC135 T2i Airbus Helicopters - EC135 T1 Airbus Helicopters - EC145Airbus Helicopters - EC155 B1Leonardo - A119Leonardo - AW139Sikorsky - S-76C+
YEAR1997200419971994199520062007199820062012200420102005
+
+
++
HOURS2,8002,0897,7442,5271,8812,4502,1393,3523,225300
4,0006,0002,600
+
+
+++
555555-755866125-7
ASKING (USD) 968,000
Make Offer 675,000 675,000
Make Offer3,000,0002,895,0001,100,0001,950,000Make Offer1,280,000
10,500,000Make Offer
FIXE
D W
ING
MODELBeechcraft - Hawker 800XPBeechcraft - Hawker 800XPBeechcraft - King Air 350iBeechcraft - King Air B200Beechcraft - King Air C90GTXBeechcraft - Premier IBombardier - Challenger 300Bombardier - Learjet 45XRBombardier - Learjet 45XRBombardier - Learjet 60Cessna - Citation CJ2Cessna - Citation CJ2+Cessna - Citation X+Cessna - Citation XLSDassault Falcon - 50EXEmbraer - Legacy 600Gulfstream - GIV-SPGulfstream - GIV-SPGulfstream - G200Gulfstream - G400
YEAR20022002201420052013200320102006200920042004201020142005200420071998199820002002
HOURS4,5081,680
New Delivery3,572
152,267649
3,4732,8412,0843,641958137
3,6463,7752,2824,5476,4924,2384,618
PAX988766888767999
1315139
13
ASKING (USD)2,495,0002,750,000Make OfferMake OfferMake OfferMake OfferMake OfferMake Offer4,995,000Make OfferMake Offer4,200,000Make Offer4,495,0005,495,0008,300,0006,995,000Make Offer3,495,0006,950,000
Price Reduced New Arrival
YEAR:
HOURS:
PAX:
YEAR:
HOURS:
PAX:
YEAR:
HOURS:
PAX:
YEAR:
HOURS:
PAX:
2002
1,021
8
2014
137
9
1998
6,179
8
2004
3,584
8
Citation X+ SN 750-0513
Hawker 800XP SN 258579
King Air 350 SN FL196
King Air 350 SN FL393Make Offer
Make Offer 1,550,000 USD
2,650,000 USD
NEW ARRIVAL
NEW ARRIVAL
FOR SALE
FOR SALE
CONFIG/PAXUtility: Utility:VIP: VIP: Utility: Utility:VIP:EMS:VIP:VIP:Utility:Utility:Utility:
THIRD QUARTER 2016 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | [email protected]
Contact:Office:Mobile:
Ms. Carmen Chan+852 2335 9222+852 6285 9919
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