covering analyst: colin bourdin
DESCRIPTION
Covering Analyst: Colin Bourdin. [email protected]. Company Overview. Founded by John Deere himself in 1837 In 1848 moved headquarters to Moline, Illinois where it resides today Modern day company was incorporated under laws of Delaware in 1958 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Company Overview
› Founded by John Deere himself in 1837
› In 1848 moved headquarters to Moline, Illinois where it resides today
› Modern day company was incorporated under laws of Delaware in 1958
› John Deere leading manufacturer of agricultural machinery in the world with a 44.2% market share
› Second largest manufacturer of Construction machinery in the world with a 7.1% market share
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Deere’s Products
› Agriculture & Turf equipment – 75%- Crop harvesting, turf & utility, hay & forage, crop care, and tractors
› Construction & Forestry – 18%
- Excavators, loaders, dump trucks, and skidders
› Financial Services – 6%- Financing for sales & leases by dealers of A&T and C&F equipment
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Deere’s Services
› Global satellite positioning technologies
› Intelligent Solutions Group - telematics
- John Deere Farmsight – virtually linking equipment with farmers
- John Deere Water – water management solutions and field connect soil sensing system
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Business Growth Strategies
› Sustainable SVS growth strategy – expanding more into six key geographic areas
- 2012 opened new distribution centers in India, South Africa, Argentina, Sweden, Germany
- 2013 building new factories in Brazil, China, and India
- Expanding Financial Services into India, Chile, Thailand, Russia, and China
› New Product Innovations
- Intelligent Solutions group – keeping Deere on forefront of technology
- New products in A&T and C&F – meeting Tier-4 standards
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Industry Overview› Agricultural Machinery Industry – 1.5% growth to 2017
- Mature and innovation focused on improving existing products
- Consolidation of farming – industry dominated by large conglomerates
- Need for immense technological change – Tier 4 and more efficiency
- Profitability has increased
Construction Machinery Industry – 5.7% growth to 2017
- Equipment for residential, commercial, highway, other infrastructure
- Sustained by strong international demand where infrastructure growing
- Domestic demand expected to increase
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Industry Market Share
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Industry Macroeconomic Influences
› Agriculture Machinery
- Increase in population, urbanization, and industrialization
- Climate – 2012 Drought
- Commodity prices and Farmer’s Cash Receipts
- Price of Steel and interest rates
Construction Machinery
- Increase in population, urbanization, industrialization
- Real Estate Market
- Interest rates and government spending on infrastructure
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Svigals Portfolio
› 11/29/2006 originally purchased 36 shares of DE for $96.27 per share
› 12/4/2007 2:1 stock split
› 12/4/2007 sold 16 shares at $87.38 per share
› 11/10/2011 sold 20 shares at $74.24 per share
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Revenue Model
› Percentage of Revenue method for Product Segments
› A&T – slowed year over year growth- High commodity prices and farm cash receipts expected to continue
- Demand from emerging markets expected to increase
- 2013 sales supported by early order program
- 2013 sales negatively effected from delayed effects of drought
- 2014 sales increase from new factories
- Continued expansion and new products increase A%T as % of revenue
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Revenue Model cont.
› C&F : Slowed year over year growth
- Improvement in U.S. real estate market increase 2013 sales and beyhond
- Continued increase in urbanization and industrialization – higher demand
- Rising prices for minerals/metals in 2013 and 2014 expected to drive mining activity
- New C&F factories in Brazil and China commence production in 2014
› Financial Services- Improved credit conditions in 2013
- Increased demand in A&T and C&F lower percentage of total revenue
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Working Capital Model
› Projected as percentage of revenueWorking Capital Model Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
($ in millions) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 1/31/2012 4/30/2012 7/31/2012 10/31/2012 2012A 1/31/2013 4/30/2013 7/31/2013 10/31/2013 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A
Total Revenue $28,437.6 $23,112.4 $26,004.6 $32,012.5 $6,766.5 $10,008.6 $9,590.0 $9,791.0 $36,157.0 $7,430.0 $10,468.0 $10,004.0 $10,085.0 $37,987.0 $40,114.3 $42,240.3 $44,394.6 $46,303.6
Current Assets
Accounts Receivable 21606.0 21882.9 24349.1 27501.6 26406.8 28764.0 29801.1 31426.4 31426.4 29980.1 31508.7 32713.1 33381.4 33381.4 35148.1 36926.5 38752.0 40122.0
Days Sales OutstandingA/R 278.1 345.6 341.8 313.6 359.0 258.7 285.9 295.3 318.1 29980.1 267.9 300.8 304.5 320.7 319.8 320.0 318.6 316.3
% of Revenue 75.98% 94.68% 93.63% 85.91% 390.26% 287.39% 310.75% 320.97% 86.92% 403.50% 301.00% 327.00% 331.00% 87.88% 87.62% 87.42% 87.29% 86.65%
Inventory 3041.8 2397.0 3063.0 4370.6 5677.7 6112.4 5867.5 5170.0 5170.0 6256.1 6511.1 5692.3 5687.9 5687.9 5896.8 6146.0 6259.6 6459.3
Days Inventory Outstanding 59.4 56.9 67.8 75.9 120.6 83.6 82.9 72.3 78.8 116.5 83.2 78.8 78.1 82.3 81.3 80.9 78.6 77.9
% of Revenue 10.70% 10.37% 11.78% 13.65% 83.91% 61.07% 61.18% 52.80% 14.30% 84.20% 62.20% 56.90% 56.40% 14.97% 14.70% 14.55% 14.10% 13.95%
Deffered Income Taxes 1440.6 2804.8 2477.1 2858.6 2879.5 2944.6 3029.1 3280.4 3280.4 3012.9 3419.9 3289.3 3610.4 3610.4 3810.9 4012.8 4217.5 4398.8% of Revenue 5.07% 12.14% 9.53% 8.93% 42.56% 29.42% 31.59% 33.50% 9.07% 40.55% 32.67% 32.88% 35.80% 9.50% 9.50% 9.50% 9.50% 9.50%
Total Current Assets 26088.4 27084.7 29889.2 34730.8 34964.0 37821.0 38697.7 39876.8 39876.8 39249.0 41439.7 41694.7 42679.7 42679.7 44855.8 47085.3 49229.2 50980.2% of Revenue 91.74% 117.19% 114.94% 108.49% 516.72% 377.89% 403.52% 407.28% 110.29% 528.25% 395.87% 416.78% 423.20% 112.35% 111.82% 111.47% 110.89% 110.10%
Long Term Assets
Net PP&E Beginning 3,534.0 4,127.7 4,532.2 3,790.7 4,352.0 4,303.8 4,387.6 4,463.4 4,352.0 4,667.0 4,719.0 4,828.9 4,919.0 4,999.6 5,332.3 5,653.2 5,948.9 6,215.2
Capital Expenditures 1,112.3 906.7 761.7 1,056.6 269.1 244.0 295.3 510.8 1,319.2 282.3 392.6 350.1 342.9 1,367.9 1,444.1 1,520.7 1,598.2 1,666.9
Acquisitions 252.3 49.8 45.5 60.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Depreciation and Amortization (831.0) (873.3) (914.8) (914.9) (243.3) (255.4) (244.0) (261.5) (1,004.2) (230.3) (282.6) (260.1) (262.2) (1,035.3) (1,123.2) (1,225.0) (1,331.8) (1,435.4)Net PP&E Ending 4,067.6 4,210.9 4,424.6 3,993.2 4,377.8 4,292.4 4,438.9 4,712.7 4,667.0 4,719.0 4,828.9 4,919.0 4,999.6 5,332.3 5,653.2 5,948.9 6,215.2 6,446.8
Total Current Assets & Net PP&E 30156.00 31295.6 34313.8 38724 39341.8 42113.4 43136.6 44589.5 44543.8 43967.985 46268.5956 46613.6312 47679.36 48012 50508.97313 53034.17056 55444.39948 57426.97286% of Revenue 14.30% 18.22% 17.01% 12.47% 64.70% 42.89% 46.29% 48.13% 12.91% 63.51% 46.13% 49.17% 49.58% 14.04% 14.09% 14.08% 14.00% 13.92%
Current Liabilities
Short-term Borrowings 8520.5 7158.9 7534.5 6852.3 8506.4 7910.0 7041.0 6292.5 6292.5 8352.8 8076.1 7826.1 6681.3 6681.3 6999.9 7307.6 7613.7 7445.6
% of Revenue 29.96% 30.97% 28.97% 21.41% 125.71% 79.03% 73.42% 64.27% 17.40% 112.42% 77.15% 78.23% 66.25% 17.59% 17.45% 17.30% 17.15% 16.08%
Payables to Unconsolidated Affiliates 169.2 55.0 203.5 117.7 113.5 189.6 103.5 135.2 135.2 126.3 204.1 115.0 141.2 141.2 148.4 156.3 164.3 171.3
% of Revenue 0.59% 0.24% 0.78% 0.37% 1.68% 1.89% 1.08% 1.38% 0.37% 1.70% 1.95% 1.15% 1.40% 0.37% 0.37% 0.37% 0.37% 0.37%
Accounts Payable and Accrued Expenses 6393.6 5371.4 6481.7 7804.8 6816.7 7631.4 8069.4 8988.9 8988.9 7642.5 9038.1 9159.7 9479.9 9479.9 9908.2 10137.7 10366.1 10779.5
% of Revenue 22.48% 23.24% 24.93% 24.38% 100.74% 76.25% 84.14% 91.81% 24.86% 102.86% 86.34% 91.56% 94.00% 24.96% 24.70% 24.00% 23.35% 23.28%
Deffered Income Taxes 171.80 167.30 144.30 168.30 152.80 164.80 162.70 164.40 164.40 209.53 188.42 172.07 166.40 166.40 172.49 168.96 164.26 157.43
% of Revenue 0.60% 0.72% 0.55% 0.53% 2.26% 1.65% 1.70% 1.68% 0.45% 2.82% 1.80% 1.72% 1.65% 0.44% 0.43% 0.40% 0.37% 0.34%
Short-term Securitization Borrowings 0.0 0.0 0.0 2777.4 2613.8 3033.3 3028.0 3572.8 3574.8 3013.6 3617.7 3268.3 3921.0 3921.0 4236.1 4507.0 4750.2 5000.8% of Revenue 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.68% 38.63% 30.31% 31.57% 36.49% 9.89% 40.56% 34.56% 32.67% 38.88% 10.32% 10.56% 10.67% 10.70% 10.80%
Total Current Liabilities 15255.1 12752.6 14364.0 17720.5 18203.2 18929.1 18404.6 19153.8 19155.8 19344.7 21124.4 20541.2 20389.9 20389.9 21465.1 22277.5 23058.5 23554.6% of Revenue 53.64% 55.18% 55.24% 55.35% 269.02% 189.13% 191.91% 195.63% 52.98% 260.36% 201.80% 205.33% 202.18% 53.68% 53.51% 52.74% 51.94% 50.87%
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DCF Assumptions
› COGS: Increase in 2013 due to rising price of steel and decreasing after due to decreasing price of steel
› SG&A: Higher in 2013 due to 5000 new employees, new plants, lower in future years
› R&D: Continued increase
› Capital Expenditures: Rise in line with revenue
› Depreciation: Increasing PP&E, increasing % of revenue
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DCF
› Projected as percentage of revenueDiscounted Cash Flow Analysis Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
($ in millions) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 1/31/2012 4/30/2012 7/31/2012 10/31/2012 2012A 1/31/2013 4/30/2013 7/31/2013 10/31/2013 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A
Total Revenue 28437.6 23112.4 26004.6 32012.5 6766.5 10008.6 9590.0 9792.0 36157.1 7430.0 10468.0 10004.0 10085.0 37987.0 40114.3 42240.3 44394.6 46303.6
% YoY Growth 18.09% -18.73% 12.51% 23.10% 10.58% 12.33% 14.55% 13.70% 12.95% 9.81% 4.59% 4.32% 2.99% 5.06% 5.60% 5.30% 5.10% 4.30%
Cost of Goods Sold 18743.8 15381.9 16484.0 21004.5 4332.7 6579.1 6512.0 6579.8 24003.6 4941.0 6961.2 6642.7 6696.4 25241.3 26475.4 27794.1 29078.5 30282.5
% Revenue 65.91% 66.55% 63.39% 65.61% 64.03% 65.73% 67.90% 67.20% 66.39% 66.50% 66.50% 66.40% 66.40% 66.45% 66.00% 65.80% 65.50% 65.40%
Gross Profit $9,693.8 $7,730.5 $9,520.6 $11,008.0 $2,433.8 $3,429.5 $3,078.0 $3,212.2 $12,153.5 $2,489.1 $3,506.8 $3,361.3 $3,388.6 $12,745.7 $13,638.9 $14,446.2 $15,316.1 $16,021.0
Gross Margin 34.09% 33.45% 36.61% 34.39% 35.97% 34.27% 32.10% 32.80% 33.61% 33.50% 33.50% 33.60% 33.60% 33.55% 34.00% 34.20% 34.50% 34.60%
Selling General and Administrative Expense (Less D&A)2960.2 2780.6 2968.7 3168.7 709.0 881.4 878.4 948.2 3417.0 787.6 1046.8 930.4 897.6 3662.3 3818.9 3991.7 4150.9 4259.9
% Revenue 10.41% 12.03% 11.42% 9.90% 10.48% 8.81% 9.16% 9.68% 9.45% 10.60% 10.00% 9.30% 8.90% 9.64% 9.52% 9.45% 9.35% 9.20%
Depreciation and Amortization 831.0 873.3 914.8 914.9 243.3 255.4 244.0 261.5 1004.2 230.3 282.6 260.1 262.2 1035.3 1123.2 1225.0 1331.8 1435.4
% Revenue 2.92% 3.78% 3.52% 2.86% 3.60% 2.55% 2.54% 2.67% 2.78% 3.10% 2.70% 2.60% 2.60% 2.73% 2.80% 2.90% 3.00% 3.10%
Research and Development Expenses 943.1 977.0 1052.4 1226.2 312.5 352.0 367.8 401.3 1433.6 349.2 450.1 370.1 373.1 1542.6 1644.7 1753.0 1864.6 1967.9
% Revenue 3.32% 4.23% 4.05% 3.83% 4.62% 3.52% 3.84% 4.10% 3.96% 4.70% 4.30% 3.70% 3.70% 4.06% 4.10% 4.15% 4.20% 4.25%
Other Operating Expenses 698.7 718.0 748.1 716.0 176.6 148.0 178.6 278.3 781.5 208.0 272.2 180.1 151.3 811.6 902.6 971.5 1043.3 1111.3
% Revenue 2.46% 3.11% 2.88% 2.24% 2.61% 1.48% 1.86% 2.84% 2.16% 2.80% 2.60% 1.80% 1.50% 2.14% 2.25% 2.30% 2.35% 2.40%
Earnings Before Interest & Taxes $4,260.8 $2,381.6 $3,836.6 $4,982.2 $992.4 $1,792.7 $1,409.2 $1,322.9 $5,517.2 $913.9 $1,455.1 $1,620.6 $1,704.4 $5,694.0 $6,149.5 $6,505.0 $6,925.6 $7,246.5
% Revenue 14.98% 10.30% 14.75% 15.56% 14.67% 17.91% 14.69% 13.51% 15.26% 12.30% 13.90% 16.20% 16.90% 14.99% 15.33% 15.40% 15.60% 15.65%
Interest Expense (Net) 1137.0 1042.4 811.4 759.4 192.1 195.7 194.9 200.1 782.8 185.8 219.8 190.1 201.7 797.4 862.5 929.3 976.7 1018.7
% Revenue 4.00% 4.51% 3.12% 2.37% 2.84% 1.96% 2.03% 2.04% 2.16% 2.50% 2.10% 1.90% 2.00% 2.10% 2.15% 2.20% 2.20% 2.20%
Equity in income of unconsolidated affiliates -40.2 6.3 -10.7 -8.6 -0.3 -2.4 -2.3 8.4 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% Revenue (.14%) .03% (.04%) (.03%) (.00%) (.02%) (.02%) .09% .01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Earnings Before Taxes 3,164.0 1,332.9 3,035.9 4,231.4 800.6 1,599.4 1,216.6 1,114.4 4,731.0 728.1 1,235.2 1,430.6 1,502.7 4,896.6 5,287.1 5,575.7 5,948.9 6,227.8
% Revenue 11.13% 5.77% 11.67% 13.22% 11.83% 15.98% 12.69% 11.38% 13.08% 9.80% 11.80% 14.30% 14.90% 12.89% 13.18% 13.20% 13.40% 13.45%
Less Taxes (Benefits) 1111.2 460.0 1161.6 1423.6 266.2 541.3 426.8 425.1 1659.4 249.0 432.3 503.6 533.4 1718.4 1876.9 1951.5 2052.4 2117.5
Tax Rate 35.12% 34.51% 38.26% 33.64% 33.25% 33.84% 35.08% 38.15% 35.08% 34.20% 35.00% 35.20% 35.50% 35.09% 35.50% 35.00% 34.50% 34.00%
Net Income $2,052.8 $872.9 $1,874.3 $2,807.8 $534.4 $1,058.1 $789.8 $689.3 $3,071.6 $479.1 $802.9 $927.0 $969.2 $3,178.2 $3,410.2 $3,624.2 $3,896.5 $4,110.4
Net Margin 7.22% 3.78% 7.21% 8.77% 7.90% 10.57% 8.24% 7.04% 8.50% 6.45% 7.67% 9.27% 9.61% 8.37% 8.50% 8.58% 8.78% 8.88%
Add Back: Depreciation and Amortization 831.0 873.3 914.8 914.9 243.3 255.4 244.0 261.5 1,004.2 230.3 282.6 260.1 262.2 1,035.3 1,123.2 1,225.0 1,331.8 1,435.4
Add Back: Interest Expense*(1-Tax Rate) 737.7 682.7 500.9 503.9 128.2 129.5 126.5 123.8 508.2 122.2 142.9 123.2 130.1 517.5 556.3 604.0 639.7 672.3
Operating Cash Flow 3621.5 2428.9 3290.0 4226.6 905.9 1443.0 1160.3 1074.6 4584.0 831.7 1228.4 1310.3 1361.5 4731.1 5089.6 5453.2 5868.1 6218.1
% Revenue 12.73% 10.51% 12.65% 13.20% 13.39% 14.42% 12.10% 10.97% 12.68% 11.19% 11.74% 13.10% 13.50% 12.45% 12.69% 12.91% 13.22% 13.43%
Current Assets 26,088.4 27,084.7 29,889.2 34,730.8 34,964.0 37,821.0 38,697.7 39,876.8 39,876.8 39,249.0 41,439.7 41,694.7 42,679.7 42,679.7 44,855.8 47,085.3 49,229.2 50,980.2
% Revenue 91.74% 117.19% 114.94% 108.49% 516.72% 377.89% 403.52% 407.24% 110.29% 528.25% 395.87% 416.78% 423.20% 112.35% 111.82% 111.47% 110.89% 110.10%
Current Liabilities 15,255.1 12,752.6 14,364.0 17,720.5 18,203.2 18,929.1 18,404.6 19,153.8 19,155.8 19,344.7 21,124.4 20,541.2 20,389.9 20,389.9 21,465.1 22,277.5 23,058.5 23,554.6
% Revenue 53.64% 55.18% 55.24% 55.35% 269.02% 189.13% 191.91% 195.61% 52.98% 260.36% 201.80% 205.33% 202.18% 53.68% 53.51% 52.74% 51.94% 50.87%
Net Working Capital $10,833.3 $14,332.1 $15,525.2 $17,010.3 $16,760.8 $18,891.9 $20,293.1 $20,723.0 $20,721.0 $19,904.2 $20,315.2 $21,153.5 $22,289.9 $22,289.9 $23,390.6 $24,807.7 $26,170.6 $27,425.6
% Revenue 38.09% 62.01% 59.70% 53.14% 247.70% 188.76% 211.61% 211.63% 57.31% 267.89% 194.07% 211.45% 221.02% 58.68% 58.31% 58.73% 58.95% 59.23%
Change in Working Capital 3498.8 1193.1 1485.1 ($249.5) $2,131.1 $1,401.2 $429.9 $3,710.7 ($816.8) $411.0 $838.2 $1,136.4 $1,568.9 $1,100.8 $1,417.11 $1,362.9 $1,255.0
Capital Expenditures 1112.3 906.7 761.7 1056.6 269.1 244.0 295.3 510.8 1319.2 282.3 392.6 350.1 342.9 1367.9 1444.1 1520.7 1598.2 1666.9
% Revenue 3.91% 3.92% 2.93% 3.30% 3.98% 2.44% 3.08% 5.22% 3.65% 3.80% 3.75% 3.50% 3.40% 3.60% 3.60% 3.60% 3.60% 3.60%
Acquisitions 252.3 49.8 45.5 60.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% Revenue .89% .22% .17% .19% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2256.9 -2026.4 1289.7 1624.1 886.3 -932.1 -536.2 133.9 -445.9 1366.1 424.8 121.9 -117.8 1795.1 2544.8 2515.5 2907.0 3296.2
Discounted Free Cash Flow 1344.9 411.7 116.3 -110.6 2244.9 2084.2 2262.2 2409.2
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Beta
Beta SD Weighting
5 year daily 1.25 0.03 25.00%
3 year daily 1.26 0.03 25.00%
5 year weekly 1.37 0.08 25.00%
3 year weekly 1.24 0.08 25.00%
Analysis Company Beta 1.2815743
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Growth Rates
› Due to 10.5% increase in FCF in 2017 choose to do 5% intermediate growth rate
› Choose 3% terminal growth rate as a conservative/ in line with GDP projection into perpetuity
2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
$3,461.00 $3,634.05 $3,815.75 $4,006.54 $4,206.87
$2,375.95 $2,343.14 $2,310.79 $2,278.89 $2,247.42
Intermediate Growth Rate 5.00%
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DCF Valuation Summary
Discounted Free Cash Flow Assumptions Considerations
Tax Rate 34.00% Terminal Growth Rate 3.00%
Risk Free Rate 1.92% Terminal Value 97,840
Beta 1.28 PV of Terminal Value 52,269
Market Risk Premium 7.00% Sum of PV Free Cash Flows 22,319
% Equity 51.46% Firm Value 74,588
% Debt 48.54% Total Debt 32,420
Cost of Debt 2.70% Cash & Cash Equivalents 4,652
CAPM 10.89% Market Capitalization 42,167
WACC 6.47% Fully Diluted Shares 388
Implied Price 108.71
Current Price 89
Undervalued 22.70%
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Comparable Analysis
› Comparables screened for similar industry and business segments, size, growth rates, % revenue domestic vs. international, beta, debt/EV, EV/EBITDA, and P/E
› Caterpillar (40%) – similar size, international presence, business segments, P/E, beta, debt/EV, EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA
› CNH Global (40%) – largest competitor to Deere in Agriculture Machinery and similar in business segments, EBITDA growth rate, debt/EV, P/E
› Cummings (10%) – Different business segments but similar revenue growth rates, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBITDA – CapEx
› AGCO (10%) – Smaller market cap and EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA very small although most similar growth rates and similar P/E
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Multiples
› EV/Revenue not included because AGCO’s is not comparable and would bring down overall valuation
Multiple Implied Price WeightEV/Revenue 58.34850389 0.00%EV/Gross Profit 100.6402176 20.00%EV/EBIT 104.6168194 20.00%EV/EBITDA 93.73125411 20.00%EV/(EBITDA-Capex) 111.7650191 20.00%Market Cap/Net Income = P/E 82.6870124 20.00%Price Target $98.69Current Price 88.60Undervalued 11.39%
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Final Valuation
DCF Analysis 60% $108.71
Comparable Analysis 40% $98.69
Current Price $88.60
Price Target 104.70$
Undervalued 18.18%
Final Implied Price
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Questions?Questions?
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Recommendation
› I recommend a hold to the Svigals Portfolio as Deere is undervalued
› Largest manufacturer in Agricultural industry – most trusted name
› Exponential increase in population, urbanization, industrialization make growth in industry inevitable
› Strongly positioned in fastest growing countries on Earth
› Housing market situated for a comeback
› Historically strong earnings, dividend growth, and yield – 14.5% annual dividend growth over last 5 years; current 2.1% dividend yield
› Not to mention Warren Buffet bought 4 million shares of DE last quarter