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6th April 2010 PRESENTED BY ENGR M SALIM MEMON

ORGANIZED BYDEPT OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING

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Presentation Roadmap

What is Management? What are issues of power industry?

What are reasons of growing GAP?

What is experience of developedcountries for similar issues?

What consumers must do?

What Government must do?

Recommendations to government


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WHAT IS MANAGEMENT?

ItIs Beyond Normal Situation,When SupplyIs Less ThanDemand, Management STARTS,

Upper LimitIs To Maintain SupplyAlways Greater Than Maximum

Demand.

Normally Supply Must Always BeEqual To 1.5 or 2 Times MaximumDemand.


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CUREENT ENERGY GAP

THE ENERGY GAPbetween firm supply andpeak demand is estimated at5,529 MW by theyear 2009-10when firm electricitysupply willstandat 15,055 MW againstpeakdemand of20,584 MW.

Chairman WAPDA Tariq Hamid at a Pressconference warned about the possible severeenergy crisis and stressed the need forquantum jump in power generation. Theexperts say it could only be possible througha mega project of hydropower generation,

otherwise the gap between firm supply andpeak demand will remain on the rise.


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FIVE BASIC RULES OF ENERGY

MANAGEMENT ADOPTED BY

DEVELOPED COUNTRIESProcure allthe energy based needs at theoptimum cost (Example: buy from original sources,review the purchase terms regularly)

Minimize consumption with most efficient devices(Example: improving energy use efficiency at everystage of energy chain)

Reusing and recyclingenergy by cascading (Example:waste heat recoveryAlways use most latest version of eco friendly devices

Minimize over all losses.ADOPT RECYCLINGas sources of energy and reducing the valueof energy required per item produced.


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ISSUES IN PAKISTAN

EVER GROW

ING ENERGY GAP since last decade

Lake of professional working, say irresponsiblebehavior top to bottom level of power industry

It is because reward / punishment does not exists anywhere at any level of power sector

Constant Delay Towards Capacity Addition AS PERDemand Growth Rate Of approx 8 To 11 % Per Annum

UN-AVAILABILITY OF R&D SECTIONIN UTILITIES , nopost project evaluation reports are uploaded.


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Status of Proposed Projects

Name of Project

Capacit

y

(MW)

Planed

Commissioning

Date

Present Status/Expected

completion Date

Hydel

Basha Dam, NWFP 3360 Dec- 2012

Just Ground Breaking

(2017)

Allai Khwar, NWFP 122 June 2006 Oct- 2011

Khan Khwar, NWFP 72 June 2006 Feb- 2010

Duber Khwar, NWFP 130 June 2006 Oct- 2010

Jinnah, Mianwali 96 Dec- 2005 Feb- 2010

Neelum Jhelum, AJ&K 969 June 2010 Dec- 2017

Golan Gol, NWFP 106 June 2006 Just Feasibility is completed

OtherChashma II, Punjab 300 Dec- 2009 2010

Korangi Thermal Power

Station

(KESC), Sindh 360 Dec. 2006 No Data Available


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Costs of Electricity Production in Newly

Constructed Power Plants in 2010

Energysource Costs (ct/kWh)

Nuclear Energy 10.70 12.40

Brown Coal 8.80 9.70

Black Coal 10.40 10.70

Domestic Gas 10.60 11.80

Wind Energy Onshore 4.97 9.61

Wind Energy Offshore 3.50 15.00

Hydropower 3.47 12.67

Biomass 7.71 11.55Solar Electricity 28.43 39.14


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Capital Cost 4 Nuclear , Coal, and

Hydro Power Plants

In Pakistan Nuclear power is expensive

As US$ 1.7 billion is required for a 300M We Nuclear plant while a 1000 M We

Hydro is built with US$ 2.16 billion(source: Wikipedia/WAPDA)

Hydro Project has agriculture benefitsalso

Carbon credits and CDM support Hydrofinancing


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GENERATION COST COMPOSITION


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GENERAL SITUATION EVERY

WHERE IN DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM


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PUBLIC SECTOR PRIVATE SECTOR

NEPRA

Ministry of

Water & Power

Pakistan Atomic

Energy CommissionKESC IPPs

CHASNUPPPPIBPEPCOWAPDA KANUPP

Water

Projects

Mega

DamsDISCOsGENCOs NTDC

Pakistan Power Sector Structure


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EVERY ONE MUST FUNCTIONWITHIN

HIS PRE DEFINED LINES / RULES


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ADDITION OF RENEWABLE

SOURCES ON URGENT BASIS


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MANAGNEMENT STARTS FROM

EACH END USER from EARLY AGE


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SUSTAINABLE HOME CRITERIA


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ABOUT OUR SWEET HOME

SUSTAINABLE NEEDS


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WHATWE CAN DO FOR GAP?


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Optimum Use of DAY LIGHT And

Consumption Trends

More daylight hours are obtainedduring the afternoon period while lessdaylight hours are obtained duringearly morning period.

Save the electricity used forillumination

But it increases the electricity usedfor heating and cooling systems

Researchers agree that later effect islarger than former and results inoverall increase in electricityconsumption.


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Energy Management Strategy

Energy management should be seen as acontinuous process. Strategies should bereviewed annually and revised as necessary.

The key activities involved in the process areoutlined below:

1. Identify a StrategicCorporate Approach2. Appoint Energy Manager3. Set up an EnergyMonitoring and Reporting

System

4. ConductEnergy Audit5. Formalize an EnergyManagement PolicyStatement


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ROADMAP 4 DEVELOPING

COUNTRIES AS PER

GLOBAL REQUIREMENTS

All Developed Countries AreStrictlyImplementing Energy Management PlansIn Due Time

Plans Must Be Workable, Acceptable ToAll Stakholders,beneficial ForNationalEconomy

TimelineFor Each Activityresponsibilities Must Be Decided Before

Start Of Work Annual ReportOf Each sector Must Be

Available Online as open document


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Options to Reduce Energy GAP

For short and medium term generationaddition FROM Coal and Hydro powerprojects should be on top priority

Share in Generation, from Coalitshould be increased(minimum) 50% of

max demand targeted up to Year 2050 Nuclear Power target of8,800 M We up

to 2030 is not feasible as it will bealmost 13% of total capacity

Even in US Nuclear share is almost10% while being the largest Nuclearpower producer in world


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OPTIONS CONTD

By one estimate of Pakistans private energysystems thermal efficiency in energygeneration tends to be around 32-35 percentwhen the global average is around 54 percent.We could thus have a 60 percent improvementin energy generation by simply switching to

newer production technologies. Distributionlosses in these systems tend to be around 23percent, whereas the technical losses shouldbe no more than 13 percent. By this estimate,Pakistan could increase its energy availabilityby a staggering 80 percent simply through

more efficient distribution systems that couldbe updated at a fraction of the cost of mega-energy generation projects being proposed.


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WHAT GOP SHOULD PROVIDE?

Government of Pakistan Needs ToReview / Update Energy policy.Updated data including before,during and after implementationmust be uploaded On RegularBasis For users to let them knowabout achievement details timely


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Pakistan has tremendous potential forhaving a sustainable energy policy, ifappropriate planning measures are putin ACTION. However, the currentdevelopment trajectory that thegovernment is pursuing CAUSESserious ecological concerns, whichinevitably translate into UNSUSTAINABLEdevelopment in the

long-term.


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The first step towards an environmentally consciousenergy policy would be to have a nationwide audit ofcurrent inefficiencies in the generation and distributionsystem for power. This must be followed by appropriatepricing and compliance enforcement to prevent lossesand perverse incentives for wastage of energy. Oncethese conservation matters have been addressed, theremaining shortfalls should first be met with plans forexpansion of renewable sources, primarily wind, solar,biomass and small-scale hydroelectric. Largehydroelectric generation projects should only beconsidered after the guidelines enunciated by theWorld Commission on Dams have been followed, ratherthan hastily pushing forward such projects under the

banner of national pride or patriotism.


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CITATION LIST

www.eia.usa.com www.energystar.com

www.dailytimes.com

www.wapda.com And many other similar energy

sector related web sites were cited


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