COVID-19 pandemic impact in Barnet

Report prepared on: 28/06/20 by Barnet Public Health Team

We welcome your feedback. Please send your comments to publichealth@barnet.gov.uk

• Covid – 19 detected infection rates and death rates in the UK, London and Barnet have been significantly reducing over the past weeks;

• Local infection rates in Barnet are higher than London’s average and, in absolute numbers, were amongst the top five in London during the peak time;

• Highest rates of infection and death are amongst people over 60 years of age;

• It was estimated that 522 excess deaths were observed locally since the beginning of the pandemic, 82% (430) were related to COVID-19;

• Approximately 50% of all care settings have been affected by Covid-19 infection however recent reports suggest a significant decrease in detected infection and no reported deaths over the last two weeks;

• Mapping of cases detected and suspected since easing out of lock-down measures suggest emerging local hotspots around Hendon, Finchley Church End and East Finchley;

• Mapping of cases and deaths by proportion of BAME population and proportion of people over 65 years of age did not show any significant relationship at this descriptive level of analyses;

• NHS Track and Trace system picks up and follows app. 75% of all confirmed Covid-19 cases.

INTERNAL USE ONLY

Key points

• PHE data on Covid-19 cases is only those with severe illness requiring hospital care. As testing is getting expanded from 20th April, PHE data may capture different population and therefore may not be comparable with a historic trend;

• Slide 10 includes absolute numbers rather than rates and therefore do not take into account size of the population or age;

• Slide 11 includes deaths from Barnet registry office, figures include all deaths taken place in Barnet, regardless of place of residence, and excludes deaths of Barnet residents that took place outside Barnet e.g. Royal Free Hospital. This data is however more recent than ONS data.

• Slide 14 includes deaths from across North Central London registry office and therefore describes deaths of Barnet residents who have died in North Central London. Figures exclude those residents of Barnet who died outside North Central London;

• Slide 19 contains data reported to Adult Social Care and PHE London Corona Response Cell directly from care settings on a daily basis. They therefore include all tested cases and those with a clinical diagnosis (possible) of Covid19. As not everyone in care setting is tested, not all deaths are confirmed positive cases.

Data Caveats

Source: Public Health England (Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK)

Daily reports of laboratory confirmed Covid-19 cases in London (n = 27,642)

Source: Public Health England (Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK)

Daily reports of laboratory confirmed Covid-19 cases in Barnet

Source: Public Health England (Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK) Note: Public Health England will revise counts for recent days as more data becomes available.

0.34% of Barnet population (1,319 cases)

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7-day rolling average

Rates of Covid-19 infection per 100, 000 population byboroughs, London (27/06/20)

Source: Public Health England (Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK)

Covid-19 laboratory confirmed cases.Age-specific rate per 10, 000 population

Population projection source: Greater London Authority (2018-based Population Projections (Housing-led Model))

Note: Analysis is based on confirmed and suspected cases where data is available at time of report preparation. Contains data on both suspected and confirmed cases

4.05 5.44

23.52 22.2329.00

40.3049.58

67.03

193.66

1.01 1.36 2.21 2.52 7.47 7.49 6.88 7.40

25.39

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0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+

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Age range

Confirmed cases Suspected cases

COVID-19 deaths by MSOA(1 March to 31 May)Source: Office for National Statistics

COVID-19 cases by MSOA (29/06/20)Source: Public Health England

Analyses of Covid-19 cases and deaths by Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA) using postcode of residence

Cases of Covid-19 and percentage of BAME population by ward (29.06.20)

BAME – Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic Sources: 2011 Census and Public Health England

Cases of Covid-19 and percentage of population age 65 and above by ward (29.06.20)

Daily registration of deaths where Covid-19 was a primary cause (n = 378)

Note: Deaths with COVID-19 recorded as primary cause for all deaths registered in Barnet, regardless of place of residence. Source: Barnet Registration and Nationality Services

Age-standardised rates of Covid-19 related deaths per 100, 000 population byboroughs, London (01/03/20 to 31/05/20)

Source: Office for National Statistics (Deaths involving COVID-19 by local area and deprivation)

83% of deaths due to COVID-19 in Barnet were in people over 80 years of age

Deaths by primary cause (weekly numbers and cumulative), for deaths registered up to 12 June 2020 by week, Barnet

Source: Office for National Statistics (Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and health board)

Cases and deaths in Care settings (up to 26.06.20)Barnet has app. 2, 500 beds in all care settings

Sources: Barnet Adult Social Care, Public Health England and Office for National Statistics (Weekly provisional figures on deaths occurring and registered in England and Wales by Local Authority)

Care homes

Home care

Supported living/ extra care provider

Total

Total suspected cases

68 8 34 110

Total confirmed cases

82 2 19 103

94 deaths where Covid-19 was reported as a primary cause of death occurred since the beginning of pandemic until 12th June(ONS data).

No deaths in care settings in Barnet have been reported in the past ten days.

Care setting comparison

Data is from market intelligence (24.06.20). Note the response rate is not 100% and varies between borough, therefore data should be interpreted with caution.

BoroughNumber of residents in care

settingsProportion of residents

affected Proportion of deathsBarnet 2025 4.3% 3.7%Bexley 979 0.2% 4.1%

Bromley 1068 0.2% 9.3%Croydon 1610 0.4% 5.4%Enfield 1093 9.5% 8.4%Harrow 821 0.1% 6.0%

Havering 1181 0.4% 2.5%Sutton 703 1.0% 9.0%

Excess deaths in Barnet care homes (2020 deaths minus 2014 to 2018 registered average)

• Since March 14th there have been a total of 204 excess deaths in Barnet care homes compared to the average number of deaths in 2014-2018.

• Of these 94 (46%) were attributed to COVID-19.

Note: Week number refers to week that the death occurred. Excess number of deaths in Week 1 is currently being investigated by ONS as the 2014-2018 average number of deaths is lower than expected. Care home deaths include nursing and residential homesSource: Office for National Statistics