covid-19: economic brief - capital economics...china’s hospitality, retail and construction...

Business in strict confidence

COVID-19: Economic Brief

Assessing implications for economies, sectors and markets

Grant Colquhoun and Marie-Louise Deshaires

24 April 2020


Developments and implications summary – 24th April

2

Overview In the euro-zone the direction of travel is towards easing lockdowns as the number of daily new infections trends downwards. There are no firm plans for when the United Kingdom’s lockdown will ease.

In the United States some states are easing lockdowns. South Korea is easing restrictions while Singapore and Hong Kong look to extend lockdowns.

Sectors The economic hit is passing from services to industry. Flash PMI manufacturing readings for April point to advance economies export volumes falling twenty per cent year-on-year.

Housing markets are under strain. Mortgage providers in the United Kingdom have become more cautious and existing home sales in the United States fell at their fastest rate in four and a half years in March.

Markets The fallout in the oil market has shifted up a gear due to excess supply and limited storage capacity. The United States oil price benchmark, WTI, briefly turned negative and Brent fell to a two-decade low.

Collapsing oil prices hit equities on Tuesday. But prospects for developed market equities depend on the speed at which the coronavirus is brought under control and the extent central bank support for markets.

Recovery path Pre-crisis levels of activity should be reached by mid-2021 in most Asian emerging markets ex-China by mid-2021. Economies will still be 2-5 per cent smaller at end-2022 than if the crisis hadn’t happened.

The Euro-zone economy should rebound in the second half of the year. We expect the economy at end-2022 to be around five per cent below its pre-crisis level, with huge strains on the currency union.

Forecasts Our latest forecast is for the global economy to shrink by 5.5 per cent this year. Italy, Spain, Brazil and Mexico have seen forecast downgrades this week.

We have decreased our forecast for global economic growth in 2021 to 8.0 per cent from 8.5 per cent last week. Germany and France have seen sizeable downgrades.


Developments and implications summary – 24th April

3

Asia Europe Americas

China’s hospitality, retail and construction sectors contracted at a double-digit pace in Q1, while information technology and finance continued to grow, according to official data. Infrastructure spending should support construction in Q2, but labour market strains will weigh on consumer-facing sectors.

A sharp drop in private consumption in South Korea in Q1 was the main cause of a contraction in gross domestic product. We believe there is much worse to come.

In Japan, the flash estimate of the composite PMI fell to a record-low of 27.8 points in April. We think, however, that the survey is understating the severity of the downturn as it did during the 2008/09 recession.

As new case numbers continue to ease across euro-zone countries have further eased their lockdown measures. On Monday, German government allowed small shops to open and Poland reopened parks and forests.

April’s PMIs were shockingly bad across countries. And the European Commission euro-zone consumer confidence index declined to a record low. However, the household sentiment gauge excludes data for Italy and almost certainly understates the true extent of the deterioration.

Sharp rebounds in the ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicators for both Germany and the euro-zone inprobably reflect the easing of lockdowns in a number of countries. Nevertheless, investors appear pretty gloomy about the pace of recovery..

Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina and other US states are easing stay-at-home restrictions. The expected gradual lifting of most states shutdowns from May suggests that the economic damage could be less severe than in Europe.

More than 25 million jobless claims have been lodged in the US in the past five weeks. This suggests the unemployment rate will surge to between 15-20 per cent in April. As the economy re-opens, however, unemployment should drop quickly as many workers will be recalled from temporary layoffs.

US existing home sales recorded their largest month-on-month decline in four and a half years in March. Given that sales are recorded with a time lag, that only represents the start of the fall. We expect sales in Q2 to be down 50 per cent from the start of 2020.


Coronavirus tracker: Promising signs in Europe, but mixed picture in Asia

4

New cases per million people*

Trend in new cases Latest virus containment policy developments

Asia

China 0.0 No new policy developments in last week.

Korea 0.3 Easing of some social distancing rules with South Koreans returning to work, parks and malls.

Japan 4.2 No new policy developments in last week.

Singapore 127.8 Lockdown measures extended by four weeks to 1st June.

India 1.0 Easing of some lockdown restrictions, in particular for farming activities, which employ more than half the nation's workforce.

Europe

Germany 31.5 Opening of small retail spaces alongside car dealerships, cycling stores and bookshops, and people advised to wear masks while in public.

France 22.0 Possible reopening of shops on 11 May.

Italy 55.3 Prime minister Giuseppe Conte said the government is working to start lifting lockdown measures from 4 May.

Spain 93.7 Prime minister Pedro Sánchez to ask parliament for a two week extension of the state of alert to 9 May, with a slight relaxation of the regime.

Poland 12.0 Reopening of parks and forests.

United Kingdom 85.1 Testing being made available for up to ten million key workers and their households.

Americas

United States 92.5 Some states easing lockdowns. President Trump suspends immigration for 60 days.

Mexico 4.4 No new policy developments in last week.

Brazil 13.2 No new policy developments in last week.

Improving / Less

restrictive

Worsening / More

restrictive

Sources: Capital Economics and variousNote: *Change in confirmed cases per million people, three day average.


Signs of falling new cases in the United States while some Asian countries extend lockdowns

5

Latest total confirmed cases of coronavirus, selected countries, thousands

Sources: Capital Economics and RefinitivNote: Case numbers subject to revision.

Daily reported change in confirmed cases of coronavirus, selected countries, thousands

Encouraging signs of new infections easing in the US

Signs that the number of daily new infections in the United States may have peaked have been revived this week with the number of new cases dropping from 32,000 on Saturday to around 24,000 on Wednesday. President Trump announced in a tweet a temporary ban on immigration for 60 days intended to protect work opportunities for the Americans who have lost their jobs in the coronavirus pandemic. Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina and other US states are easing stay-at-home restrictions. The expected gradual lifting of most states shutdowns from May suggests that the economic damage could be less severe than in Europe.

In Asia, South Korea is taking steps to relax certain social distancing rules as new cases drop further, offering some relief for religious and sports facilities previously subjected to strict restrictions. Singapore and Hong Kong, in contrast, said they will extend their lockdowns by four and two more weeks, respectively, as new cases rose over recent days.

Direction of travel towards easing lockdowns in euro-zone

The number of daily new infections in the euro-zone has continued the downward trend experienced over the past two weeks, prompting various governments to relax their lockdowns. The German government allowed small shops to open from Monday and Poland reopened parks and forests on Monday. Restriction across Europe, however, remain tight, and it will still be a long time before economies fully re-open.

In Italy the number of new cases continued its downward trend until mid-week, reaching 2,600 on Thursday, down from around 3,800 on Saturday. This was its lowest level since the second week of March and brings the lifting of the lockdown closer.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

0

50

100

150

200

250

20-Jan 03-Feb 17-Feb 02-Mar 16-Mar 30-Mar 13-Apr

China Italy SpainSouth Korea Japan United States (RHS)

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

20-Jan 03-Feb 17-Feb 02-Mar 16-Mar 30-Mar 13-Apr

Italy Spain South Korea Japan United States (RHS)


China output contraction in Q1 driven by hospitality and retail

Gross domestic product contracted in Q1 for the first time since China began publishing quarterly data in 1992. The detailed breakdown of China’s Q1 provides a useful framework for gauging the relative performance of different sectors amid the COVID-19 disruption. Hospitality, retail and construction contracted at a double-digit pace, while information technology and finance continued to grow.

The key takeaway is that conditions vary hugely from sector to sector and this will likely remain the case over coming months. A ramp up in infrastructure spending this quarter should help construction return to growth, but labour market strains and lingering virus concerns will continue to weigh on sectors such as hospitality and retail. Parts of industry will be held back by dependence on foreign demand, which is set to slow sharply.

Economic activity in S. Korea fell by the most since 2008 in Q1

South Korean gross domestic product also shrank in Q1. The economy declined by 1.4 per cent on a quarterly basis, after expanding 1.3 per cent in Q4. A breakdown of the data shows that a sharp drop in private consumption of 6.4 per cent was the main cause of the contraction. Government consumption growth slowed but is likely to rebound strongly in Q2 as fiscal stimulus kicks in. Investment is likely to head in the opposite direction after recording positive, albeit much slower, growth last quarter. Exports volumes shrank 2.0 per cent, while imports volumes fell 4.1 per cent.

There is much worse to come for the economy. With the external environment weighing heavily on export demand, a much deeper contraction is likely this quarter. We expect the economy to shrink by nearly three per cent over the year as a whole

Extent of hit to consumer-facing sectors clear from Q1 data for Asia

6

China Q1 2020 gross domestic product by sector, annualchange, per cent

Sources: Capital Economics, Refinitiv, Wind and CEIC

South Korea gross domestic product by expenditure, quarterly change, per cent

Telecommunications & ITFinance

OtherAgriculture

Real Estate ServicesIndustry

Leasing & Commercial ServicesTransport, Storage & Post

ConstructionRetail & Wholesale

Hospitality (incl. F&B)

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

GDP PrivateCons.

Gov Cons. Investment Exports Imports

Q4 2019 Q1 2020


Manufacturing downturn to deepen in Q2 as exports slump

7

Surveys in Japan drop driven by services

Early PMI readings for April point to the size of the Q2 downturn in major economies. In Japan, the flash estimate of the composite PMI fell to a record-low of 27.8 points in April. The manufacturing PMI declined only a little from 44.8 to 43.7, but the output sub-index dropped by another 3.3 points to 37.8, consistent with industrial production falling by more than ten per cent annually. And new export orders fell from 40.0 to 33.5, consistent with a fall in export volumes by around 30 per cent on a quarterly basis in Q2.

The services PMI slumped from 33.8 to 22.8, far below the previous low of 33.7 reached in February 2009. Overall the drop in the composite PMI index points to gross domestic product falling by at least seven per cent in Q2. We think, however, that the survey is understating the severity of the downturn as it did during the 2008/09 recession and we expect economic output to plunge by twelve per cent in Q2.

Trade collapse pointing to manufacturing hit

Japan’s experience is not unique. As expected, after a dreadful month in March, the flash PMIs index for advanced economies got a whole lot uglier in April. Advanced economies were in lockdown throughout the entire survey period for April’s batch of PMIs, unlike the surveys for March, for which responses largely came in before containment measures were intensified. At the aggregate level, we estimate that the developed markets composite PMI fell to around 22.5.

Although the drop in the composite PMI indices was mainly driven by a collapse in services sector output, manufacturing output is also expected to deteriorate in these countries. The new exports orders balance in April is broadly consistent with a near-twenty per cent drop in real exports from developed markets in year-on-year terms.

Japan Composite PMI index, points, and real gross domestic product annual change, per cent

Sources: Capital Economics, Refinitiv and Markit.

Developed markets manufacturing and new export orders index and real exports

-10-8-6-4-202468

20

30

40

50

60

70

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Composite PMI (LHS) Real GDP (% y/y, RHS)

25

35

45

55

65

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

CPB Adv. Economies real exports (3m avg., %y/y, LHS)DM manuf. new export orders (Adv. 3m, RHS)


Most Emerging Asian economies won’t regain pre-crisis level of output until mid-2021

8

Output across emerging Asia to rebound in Q3 2020

Due to lockdowns, emerging Asia is now in the middle of a devastating recession. The daily data that we track on traffic congestion, the movement of people, tourist arrivals and trade flows all point to a collapse in economic output. We think gross domestic product in most countries, apart from China, will contract by around ten per cent in the second quarter of the year. There is a great deal of uncertainty about what the recovery, when it comes, will look like. As lockdowns are lifted, industries and shops are re-opened, and people return to work, we expect the economic output to strongly rebound in Q3.

Recovery to face constraints from demand and balance sheets

Even after supply disruptions are brought to an end, however, economies will face a powerful headwind in the form of weak demand. Many people will steer clear of shops, restaurants and other public spaces. Shutdowns will leave a legacy of job losses and firm closures, that will lead to a further drag on demand. External headwinds will also weigh on the recovery as the drags on domestic is demand in Asia will be mirrored abroad.

Impaired balance sheets will add further downward pressure. Most countries have introduced huge fiscal stimulus packages to support their economies through the crisis. Public debt-to-gross domestic product ratios are likely to rise by around ten percentage points this year. For some countries a subsequent period of fiscal austerity will be needed. Households and companies that take on extra debt during the crisis will also require a period of retrenchment, which will likely drag on consumption and investment.

Most economies are unlikely to regain their pre-crisis level of output until the middle of 2021. We expect they will still be 2-5 per cent smaller at the end of 2022 than if the crisis hadn’t happened.

Difference in gross domestic product by end-2022 compared with if crisis had not happened, percentage-points

Sources: Capital Economics and Refinitiv.

Government debt, as a share of gross domestic product, per cent

0 25 50 75 100

Sri LankaIndia

MalaysiaVietnam

ChinaThailand

PhilippinesKorea

TaiwanIndonesia

2020 2019

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

Korea Taiwan Singap. Indon. Philip. Malaysia Thailand


Euro-zone business and consumer surveys understating depth of downturn in Q2

9

Eurozone experiencing its biggest slump since World War two

In the Eurozone, the lockdown has triggered the biggest economic slump since the second World War with activity likely to drop by around twenty per cent in Q2 2020. The slump is so severe that, in our view, the normal business surveys released since the lockdown started, such as the composite PMIs, can provide only a rough indication of its scale. The decline in the Composite PMI from 29.7 in March to 13.5 in April left the index consistent with gross domestic product declining by nearly five per cent in Q2, but we expect the economy to contract much more sharply than that.

Fall in confidence understates crash in consumption

The slump in the European Commission euro-zone consumer confidence index in April was another record decline. Euro-zone consumer confidence dropped significantly in April reaching -22.7, down from -11.6 in March. However, the index excludes data for Italy and almost certainly understates the true extent of the deterioration.

We suspect that household consumption fell much more sharply than the index implies. Household spending appears to have dropped by 20-30 per cent since mid-March. Spending on entertainment and travel has stopped completely. And the Bank of France reports that payments via bank cards halved in late March, consistent with a 30 per cent fall in consumption there. Beyond Q2, household consumption should pick up gradually as lockdown measures are eased. But over the full year, we expect consumption to slump by twelve per cent.

Euro-zone Composite PMI index and gross domestic product

Sources: Capital Economics, Refinitiv

Euro-zone European Commission consumer confidence index and household spending annual change, per cent

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

10

20

30

40

50

60

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Composite PMI (LHS) GDP (% q/q, RHS)

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

-30

-23

-15

-8

0

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

EZ consumer confidence (LHS)Household Consumption (% y/y, RHS)


Pace and extent of euro-zone rebound will be underwhelming

10

EU economic sentiment rebounds but weak recovery lies ahead

The sharp rebounds in the ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicators for both Germany and the euro-zone in April to 28.2 and 25.2, respectively, from minus 49.5 in March, suggest that investors are now expecting some recovery from the complete collapse in activity over recent weeks. That probably reflects recent moves in some countries, including Germany, to ease lockdown measures.

The euro-zone sentiment indicator is broadly consistent with gross domestic product rebounding to about two per cent on an annual basis. Any improvement is likely to be very slow. After all, even if a majority of investors now think the only way is up, they were pretty gloomy about the pace of the recovery.

Recovery set to be partial and mild

As the peak of the epidemic passes, restrictions are expected to be lifted gradually in the second half of the year leading to a pick up in household consumption and a rapid rebound in economic activity. We think, however, that the recovery will be mild and that gross domestic product will still be around five per cent below its pre-crisis level at the end of 2022.

Spending will likely remain much lower than before the coronavirus because some restrictions will remain in place and private sector balance sheets, including banks’, will be damaged. Also, we expect the uneven impact of the slump to put huge strains on the currency union. The European Central Bank has done enough to contain sovereign bond spreads for now, but it may need to do more particularly if the euro-zone fails to agree joint fiscal support.

Euro-zone investor sentiment index and gross domestic product annual change, per cent

Sources: Capital Economics and Refinitiv.

Euro-zone gross domestic product, index (Q4 2019 = 100)

80

100

120

140

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Pre-GFC trend (Q1 99-Q1 08)

Pre-euro-zone crisis trend (Q2 09-Q1 11)

Pre-Covid-19 forecast

New forecast

-10

-5

0

5

10

-100

-50

0

50

100

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (Adv. 6 months, LHS)Euro-zone GDP (%y/y, RHS)


Unemployment surging but worst of the upward spike could prove short-lived

11

Small crack in United Kingdom labour market to turn into chasm

In the United Kingdom, Labour Force Survey data for February suggested that labour market conditions were softening even before the lockdown began. The more timely “flash” estimate of Pay As You Earn employment data for March, derived from company payroll tax records, showed employment fell by 17,500 compared to February.

We think that it is a matter of months before the unemployment rate rises from four to almost nine per cent and households real disposable incomes fall by almost ten per cent. That’s despite this week’s encouraging news that in its first day the government’s scheme to support employment has paid 80 per cent of the wages of over one million furloughed workers.

US labour market fallout, but not as bad as it seems

The unprecedented surge in United States initial jobless claims appears to be tailing off slightly. More than 25 million people, however, have already filed claims over the past five weeks and the weekly insured unemployment rate hit a record high of eleven per cent in the week ending 11 April. Overall, the unemployment rate will surge to more than fifteen per cent in April.

Such a surge in the unemployment rate would invite comparisons with the Great Depression, but we think those are misplaced because many of the unemployed will return to paid employment when the lockdowns are lift. Indeed nearly all of the increase in unemployment in March was due to temporary layoffs rather than permanent job losses. This is unlike what is observed in a normal economic cycle and leaves us hopeful that rate will come down relatively quickly, falling back below seven per cent by year-end.

Change in employment, rolling three-month change, thousands

Sources: Capital Economics, Office for National Statistics, Markit and Refinitiv.

United States unemployment rate, per cent

-100

0

100

200

300

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

PAYE* (3m/3m, March is m/m) Labour Force Survey (3m/3m)

* Pay As You Earn

0

5

10

15

20

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

CE forecast


Housing activity collapsing due to lender caution and consumer retrenchment

12

UK mortgage lenders becoming more cautious

In recent weeks, financial markets have shown signs of stress. The LIBOR-OIS spread, a measure of credit risk in the United Kingdom banking sector, has risen to around 65 basis points. This evokes memories of 2007. On the face of it recent behaviour from mortgage lenders seems similar, too, with mortgage availability shrinking and lenders pulling back on risker, high lifetime value products.

For the mortgage market, however, any future credit crunch is more likely to come from lenders’ concerns about the economy, house prices and risk appetite, than a dislocation in funding. Of course, movement restrictions make house purchase very difficult, so mortgage availability won’t be important for at least several weeks. When the lockdown starts to be lifted, however, credit supply will be a key determinant of whether house prices are stagnant, or whether they collapse.

US existing home sales to fall 50 per cent in Q2

In the United States, existing home sales recorded their largest month-on-month decline in four and a half years in March, dropping by 8.5 per cent. Given that sales are recorded with a time lag, that only represents the start of the fall in activity. Realtor confidence in the six-month sales outlook has dropped to a record low of 29. Looking ahead, we expect sales will eventually fall to around 2.8 million annualised in the second quarter, down 50 per cent from the start of the year.

As the economy reopens, pent-up demand from the spring-selling season should then help sales bounce back, but it will take time for households’ income and savings to recover and we doubt all the drop in sales and starts will be made up. At 5.2 million annualised expected by end-2022, existing home sales will not have returned to their pre-virus level of over 6.0 million.

United Kingdom three-month LIBOR-OIS spread, basis points

Sources: Capital Economics, National Association of Realtors, Refinitiv and Bloomberg.

United States existing home sales and National Association of Realtors’ confidence index

-100

0

100

200

300

400

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Global financial crisis

European sovereign debt crisis Coronavirus

20

40

60

80

3

4

5

6

Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20

Existing new sales (000s, annualised, LHS)NAR* confidence index (advance 1-month, RHS)


Oil price slump hampers oil exporters response to virus, but unlikely to hold back equities

13

COVID-19 control and central banks key for most equity markets

The MSCI World Index of developed market equities fell by around three per cent on Tuesday, its worst day since 1st April. That came on the back of a further collapse in the oil market, which took the prices of some benchmark contracts below zero for the first time ever.

Although developed market equities and oil often move in the same direction that does not necessarily mean that one drives the other. The energy sector now makes up only around three per cent of the MSCI World index so the direct impact on most equity indices from falls in oil prices ought to be fairly small. Admittedly, in some developed markets, such as the United Kingdom and Italy, and emerging markets oil matters much more. The key for developed market equities over the coming months is likely to be the speed at which the coronavirus is brought under control, and the extent to which central banks continue to prop up financial markets.

Plunge in oil prices won’t push Russia into a financial crisis

Russia’s benchmark crude oil, Urals, fell as low as $8.5 per barrel during the week, a level not seen since 1998. The collapse reflects the unprecedented hit to oil demand from the virus and the lack of global storage capacity. Russia, however, should be able to weather low oil prices for some time and the country’s strong balance sheets mean that low oil prices shouldn’t result in major economic strains.

Given the high marginal tax rate on oil exports and the export duty and mineral extraction tax exemptions that kick in with low Urals prices, however, government revenues are expected to slump. One consequence is that fiscal support to firms and households affected by the coronavirus outbreak will remain limited. This will probably force the central bank to be more proactive. We expect policy rates to be cut by a total of 1.5 percentage points to 4.5 per cent.

Oil price and MSCI World index (2020 Prices)

Sources: Capital Economics, Risultati di ricercaRisultato web con link ai siti

The Central Bank of Russian Federation, Ministry of Finance and Refinitiv

Russia oil and gas revenues in Russian rubles, thousands, and US dollars

-50

10

70

130

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

1984 1991 1998 2005 2012 2019

MSCI World ($US-Terms, LHS) WTI ($US per barrel, RHS)

-50

50

150

250

350

0

2

4

6

8

10

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Revenues in rubles (LHS) Revenues in US dollars (RHS)

CE Forecasts


Huge and uneven slump in euro-zone activity puts new strains on currency union

14

-21

-18

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

Forecast as of 24th April Pre-crisis forecasts

Source: Capital EconomicsNote: * China Activity Proxy, not official measure of gross domestic product.

Latest forecast for year-on-year change in gross domestic product in 2020, alongside pre-virus forecasts, per cent


Gross domestic product forecasts in detail, selected countries – 24th April

15

Real economic growth rate, quarter-on-quarter, per cent

Forecasts, year-on-year, per cent

Revisions since pre-crisis, percentage points

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2021 2020 2021

Asia

China* -19.5 13.5 7.0 3.5 -5.0 15.0 -10.0 10.0

Korea -0.6 -8.0 5.8 1.7 -3.0 6.0 -5.5 3.5

Japan -0.5 -12.0 7.2 2.5 -7.0 5.0 -6.8 4.1

India 0.0 -5.3 7.7 1.8 1.0 9.0 -4.7 2.5

Europe

Germany -3.0 -11.0 6.0 2.5 -8.0 4.5 -8.2 3.9

France -3.4 -19.0 14.8 5.5 -10.0 7.5 -10.8 6.5

Italy -7.0 -30.0 25.0 10.0 -18.0 15.0 -18.2 14.8

Spain -6.2 -27.2 24.5 7.3 -15.0 10.0 -16.3 8.5

United Kingdom -1.5 -24.0 16.0 4.8 -12.0 10.0 -13.0 8.2

Americas

United States -0.9 -12.0 5.0 5.3 -5.5 7.0 -7.5 4.6

Mexico -2.0 -12.5 7.0 2.5 -8.0 5.0 -8.5 3.0

Brazil -0.5 -10.0 3.0 2.5 -5.5 2.5 -7.0 0.7

World -5.4 -6.5 5.5 4.0 -5.5 8.0 -8.3 4.8

Source: Capital EconomicsNote: * China Activity Proxy, not official measure of gross domestic product.


Summary of containment measures in place, selected countries

16

Summary of containment measures in place

Lockdown Schools closed

Borders closed

Social distancing

Large events banned

Non-essential businesses

closedAsia

China *Korea * * Japan * *Singapore India * *Europe

Germany *France * Italy * *Spain *Poland * United Kingdom Americas

United States * * Mexico Brazil * *

Legend

* Indicates partially in place

Indicates (largely) in place

Indicates (largely) not in place

Sources: Capital Economics and various


Contact details

17

Grant Colquhoun

Head of Consultancy

[email protected]

Marie-Louise Deshaires

Economist

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


18

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