covid-19 spurs record downward adjustments to …...declines in global gdp for the first half of cy...

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For an email subscription, click here to register: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to Global Demand The April USDA forecast has world cotton consumption down 7.6 million bales (or 6.4 percent) from last month, the largest monthly change in consumption in USDA’s database. The unprecedented reduction is driven by the rapidly developing impacts of COVID-19 on countries around the world. It represents a loss of about 3-and-a-half weeks of global spinning or about 16 percent of the expected spinning March through July based on the March USDA forecasts. COVID-19-driven changes in behavior and regulations are significantly impacting the supply chain of the cotton sector. For example, cotton spinning in China fell by upwards of 90 percent during the height of the crisis in early March. Recent travel restrictions in India, Pakistan, and Vietnam are likely to have similar impacts on cotton supply and demand in the short-term. While spinning and other manufacturing sectors in China have begun to recover to some extent, the decline in consumers’ global consumption of apparel is expected to limit any dramatic global recovery for spinners in this marketing year. The extent and length of the shutdowns of spinning mills in China, where COVID-19 arrived earlier, provides some basis for extrapolating impacts in other major cotton spinning countries such as India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam, as disruptions in the supply chain follow the spread of the virus. Reductions in consumption this month are spread across all consuming countries of note. In addition to physical disruption across the global supply chain from farm to retailer, global cotton end- use (i.e., world retail sales of clothing and textiles) has plummeted amidst large portions of the global population limiting activity outside their homes and/or confined by stay-at-home orders and with many “non-essential” businesses including apparel stores closed. The two largest importers of apparel, the European Union and the United States, have seen widespread closure of shopping malls and retail stores, while three-quarters of the U.S. population are under travel restrictions. U.S. unemployment is rising at an unprecedented rate, leaving less income devoted to discretionary items such as apparel. Spending on clothing is highly correlated to changes in GDP. With expectations for unprecedented declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand. Retailers are responding to rapid declines in consumer spending by reducing and canceling orders for textiles and apparel worldwide. The severity and timing of consumer “demand destruction” will likely dictate how significant cotton consumption declines in the current marketing year and how long it may persist into 2020/21. Cotton prices have declined significantly in recent weeks, with the nearby ICE futures contract falling below 50 cents for the first time in over a decade. This has pressured spinners as higher-priced cotton purchased earlier in the season arrives when current prices are now 10 to 20 cents lower. Prices are expected to remain pressured with global consumption forecast at a 6-year low, world ending stocks at their highest level in 5 years, and stocks outside of China 25 percent above the previous record. United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service April 2020 Cotton: World Markets and Trade

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Page 1: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

For an email subscription, click here to register: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to Global Demand

The April USDA forecast has world cotton consumption down 7.6 million bales (or 6.4 percent) from

last month, the largest monthly change in consumption in USDA’s database. The unprecedented

reduction is driven by the rapidly developing impacts of COVID-19 on countries around the world. It

represents a loss of about 3-and-a-half weeks of global spinning or about 16 percent of the expected

spinning March through July based on the March USDA forecasts.

COVID-19-driven changes in behavior and regulations are significantly impacting the supply chain of

the cotton sector. For example, cotton spinning in China fell by upwards of 90 percent during the height

of the crisis in early March. Recent travel restrictions in India, Pakistan, and Vietnam are likely to have

similar impacts on cotton supply and demand in the short-term. While spinning and other manufacturing

sectors in China have begun to recover to some extent, the decline in consumers’ global consumption of

apparel is expected to limit any dramatic global recovery for spinners in this marketing year.

The extent and length of the shutdowns of spinning mills in China, where COVID-19 arrived earlier,

provides some basis for extrapolating impacts in other major cotton spinning countries such as India,

Bangladesh, and Vietnam, as disruptions in the supply chain follow the spread of the virus. Reductions

in consumption this month are spread across all consuming countries of note.

In addition to physical disruption across the global supply chain from farm to retailer, global cotton end-

use (i.e., world retail sales of clothing and textiles) has plummeted amidst large portions of the global

population limiting activity outside their homes and/or confined by stay-at-home orders and with many

“non-essential” businesses including apparel stores closed. The two largest importers of apparel, the

European Union and the United States, have seen widespread closure of shopping malls and retail stores,

while three-quarters of the U.S. population are under travel restrictions. U.S. unemployment is rising at

an unprecedented rate, leaving less income devoted to discretionary items such as apparel.

Spending on clothing is highly correlated to changes in GDP. With expectations for unprecedented

declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and

negatively impact cotton demand. Retailers are responding to rapid declines in consumer spending by

reducing and canceling orders for textiles and apparel worldwide. The severity and timing of consumer

“demand destruction” will likely dictate how significant cotton consumption declines in the current

marketing year and how long it may persist into 2020/21.

Cotton prices have declined significantly in recent weeks, with the nearby ICE futures contract falling

below 50 cents for the first time in over a decade. This has pressured spinners as higher-priced cotton

purchased earlier in the season arrives when current prices are now 10 to 20 cents lower. Prices are

expected to remain pressured with global consumption forecast at a 6-year low, world ending stocks at

their highest level in 5 years, and stocks outside of China 25 percent above the previous record.

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service April 2020

Cotton:

World Markets and Trade

Page 2: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

Overview

For 2019/20, the April forecast shows dramatically lower consumption and trade with sharply higher

ending stocks. Consumption has been lowered in all significant markets due to the effects of COVID-

19. Lower global trade reflects these downward revisions in major consuming countries; with

production and beginning stocks up marginally, ending stocks are up more than 8 percent. The U.S.

forecast has lower exports and consumption with higher ending stocks. The U.S. season-average farm

price is lowered 1 cent to 59 cents per pound.

For current prices received by farmers click here; NASS farm price

Prices

The A-index and U.S. spot price have continued their downward momentum from last month and are

down roughly 25 percent from January. Concerns over the COVID-19 outbreak have further depressed

demand and slowed global business activity.

For more information on U.S. spot price click here; AMS Cotton Market News

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 3: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

2019/20 Outlook

Major Exporters:

March April

Month

Change

%

Change

World 43,599 40,639 -2,960 -6.8%

United States 16,500 15,000 -1,500 -9.1%

India 3,600 3,300 -300 -8.3%

Brazil 8,800 8,600 -200 -2.3%

Benin 1,400 1,275 -125 -8.9%

Australia 1,300 1,200 -100 -7.7%

Mali 1,300 1,200 -100 -7.7%

Cote d'Ivoire 1,000 925 -75 -7.5%

Greece 1,500 1,450 -50 -3.3%

Burkina 900 850 -50 -5.6%

Cameroon 600 550 -50 -8.3%

Argentina 500 450 -50 -10.0%

Sudan 500 450 -50 -10.0%

Mexico 425 375 -50 -11.8%

Tajikistan 425 375 -50 -11.8%

Major Importers:

March April

Month

Change

%

Change

World 43,573 40,678 -2,895 -6.6%

China 8,250 7,500 -750 -9.1%

Pakistan 4,200 3,700 -500 -11.9%

Bangladesh 7,300 6,900 -400 -5.5%

Vietnam 6,800 6,400 -400 -5.9%

Turkey 4,300 4,000 -300 -7.0%

India 2,300 2,000 -300 -13.0%

Indonesia 3,000 2,900 -100 -3.3%

Mexico 800 700 -100 -12.5%

Thailand 950 875 -75 -7.9%

Egypt 500 450 -50 -10.0%

Iran 300 250 -50 -16.7%

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 4: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

Major Consumers:

March April

Month

Change

%

Change

World 118,163 110,583 -7,580 -6.4%

India 24,500 22,000 -2,500 -10.2%

China 36,500 35,000 -1,500 -4.1%

Pakistan 10,800 10,100 -700 -6.5%

Bangladesh 7,400 6,900 -500 -6.8%

Turkey 7,300 6,800 -500 -6.8%

Vietnam 6,800 6,300 -500 -7.4%

Indonesia 3,000 2,800 -200 -6.7%

Uzbekistan 3,300 3,150 -150 -4.5%

Brazil 3,400 3,300 -100 -2.9%

United States 3,000 2,900 -100 -3.3%

Mexico 1,950 1,850 -100 -5.1%

Thailand 950 850 -100 -10.5%

Egypt 630 550 -80 -12.7%

Iran 575 500 -75 -13.0%

Turkmenistan 825 770 -55 -6.7%

Burma 775 725 -50 -6.5%

Argentina 550 500 -50 -9.1%

The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database

for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand

Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m.

FAS Reports and Databases:

Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads

Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7

Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online):

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home

Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports):

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

Questions may be directed to:

James Johnson (202) 690-1546 ([email protected])

Graham Soley (202) 772-4235 ([email protected])

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 5: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

Export Sales Report:

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/

Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports):

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

Other USDA Reports:

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

Economic Research Service:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

National Agricultural Statistics Service:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 6: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Afghanistan

05051001507 2018/19

550515025012 2019/20

Angola

0-100-100-10000 2016/17

-2-80-80-10000 2017/18

-2-100-100-100-20 2018/19

-2-100-100-100-20 2019/20

Argentina

100-500-50-500000 2019/20

Australia

50000-1000-5000 2019/20

Azerbaijan

30000003000 2019/20

Bangladesh

100-5000-5000-400000 2019/20

Benin

-25000250000 2016/17

-950007000-250 2017/18

5000-10000-950 2018/19

130000-1250050 2019/20

Brazil

500-1000-100-200020000 2019/20

Burkina

140000-1400000 2018/19

190000-50001400 2019/20

Burma

25-500-500-25000 2019/20

Cameroon

50000-500000 2019/20

Chad

15000-150000 2019/20

China

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 6 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 7: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued)

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

750-1,5000-1,5000-750000 2019/20

Colombia

10-100-1000000 2019/20

Cote d'Ivoire

75000-750000 2019/20

Ecuador

5-50-500000 2019/20

Egypt

-300000-20-1000 2018/19

-20-800-80-25-50-45-300 2019/20

El Salvador

10-100-1000000 2019/20

Ethiopia

20-200-2000000 2019/20

Germany

5-50-500000 2019/20

Greece

80-100-10-50-52505 2019/20

Guatemala

10-100-1000000 2019/20

India

2,500-2,5000-2,500-300-300000 2019/20

Indonesia

100-2000-2000-100000 2019/20

Iran

25-750-750-50000 2019/20

Italy

30-300-3000000 2019/20

Japan

0-200-200-20000 2019/20

Kazakhstan

30-50-5-250000 2019/20

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 8: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued)

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Korea, North

10-100-1000000 2019/20

Korea, South

10-250-250-15000 2019/20

Kyrgyzstan

5000-50000 2019/20

Lesotho

5-50-500000 2019/20

Malawi

5000-50000 2019/20

Malaysia

275-250-250250000 2019/20

Mali

100000-1000000 2019/20

Mauritius

5-50-500000 2019/20

Mexico

50-1000-100-50-100000 2019/20

Moldova

5-50-500000 2019/20

Mozambique

5000-50000 2019/20

Nigeria

15-150-1500000 2019/20

Pakistan

205-7000-700-5-500000 2019/20

Peru

10-200-200-10000 2019/20

Philippines

5-50-500000 2019/20

Portugal

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 April 2020Global Market Analysis

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Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued)

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

10-200-200-10000 2019/20

Russia

5-50-500000 2019/20

South Africa

15-50-5-100000 2019/20

Spain

-900000-900 2018/19

40000013-91 2019/20

Sudan

55-50-5-500000 2019/20

Syria

5-50-500000 2019/20

Taiwan

-10-150-150-25000 2019/20

Tajikistan

55-50-5-500000 2019/20

Tanzania

30-100-10-200000 2019/20

Thailand

25-1000-1000-75000 2019/20

Togo

25000-250000 2019/20

Turkey

200-5000-5000-300000 2019/20

Turkmenistan

0-550-55-250-8000 2019/20

Uganda

10000-100000 2019/20

United States

1,600-1000-100-1,5000000 2019/20

Uzbekistan

150-1500-15000000 2019/20

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 9 April 2020Global Market Analysis

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Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued)

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Venezuela

5-50-500000 2019/20

Vietnam

100-5000-5000-400000 2019/20

Zambia

25000-250000 2019/20

Zimbabwe

25000-250000 2019/20

World

World

-25-100-1025-10000 2016/17

-97-80-870-100-250 2017/18

104-50-5-230-30-4-977 2018/19

7,867-7,5800-7,580-2,960-2,89511810418 2019/20

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 10 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 11: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

Table 01 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1)

(1000 MT)

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Mar

2019/20

Apr

2019/20

Production none

5,639 India 5,879 6,314 5,617 6,423 6,423

4,790 China 4,953 5,987 6,042 5,933 5,933

2,806 United States 3,738 4,555 3,999 4,311 4,311

1,289 Brazil 1,528 2,007 2,830 2,830 2,874

1,524 Pakistan 1,676 1,785 1,655 1,437 1,437

827 Uzbekistan 811 840 713 762 762

577 Turkey 697 871 806 740 740

3,485 Other 3,943 4,589 4,161 4,037 4,019

20,937 Total 23,226 26,950 25,823 26,474 26,499

USE Dom. Consumption none

7,838 China 8,382 8,927 8,600 7,947 7,620

5,389 India 5,302 5,258 5,225 5,334 4,790

2,243 Pakistan 2,243 2,373 2,330 2,351 2,199

1,372 Bangladesh 1,481 1,633 1,611 1,611 1,502

1,459 Turkey 1,426 1,622 1,502 1,589 1,481

980 Vietnam 1,176 1,437 1,524 1,481 1,372

675 Brazil 697 740 740 740 718

4,699 Other 4,587 4,736 4,659 4,673 4,394

24,654 Total 25,293 26,727 26,192 25,727 24,077

Imports none

959 China 1,096 1,243 2,099 1,796 1,633

1,388 Bangladesh 1,481 1,655 1,568 1,589 1,502

1,002 Vietnam 1,197 1,524 1,502 1,481 1,393

918 Turkey 801 876 762 936 871

718 Pakistan 533 740 621 914 806

640 Indonesia 738 766 664 653 631

233 India 596 365 392 501 435

1,858 Other 1,763 1,790 1,640 1,616 1,585

7,717 Total 8,205 8,959 9,248 9,487 8,857

Exports none

1,993 United States 3,248 3,544 3,214 3,592 3,266

939 Brazil 607 909 1,310 1,916 1,872

1,255 India 991 1,128 764 784 718

209 Greece 221 234 295 327 316

142 Benin 180 233 283 305 278

616 Australia 812 852 791 283 261

218 Mali 239 283 294 283 261

2,184 Other 1,948 1,870 2,001 2,003 1,875

7,555 Total 8,247 9,054 8,952 9,493 8,848

Ending Stocks none

12,345 China 9,998 8,272 7,766 7,510 7,674

1,534 India 1,716 2,009 2,028 2,833 3,378

1,243 Brazil 1,509 1,885 2,668 2,848 2,957

827 United States 599 914 1,056 1,110 1,459

569 Pakistan 504 616 543 516 561

330 Bangladesh 355 404 388 395 417

334 Turkey 333 387 347 358 401

2,446 Other 2,463 3,092 2,682 2,586 3,024

19,628 Total 17,475 17,579 17,480 18,158 19,870

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 11 April 2020Global Market Analysis

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Table 02 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1)

(1000 Bales)

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Mar

2019/20

Apr

2019/20

Production none

5,920 Brazil 7,020 9,220 13,000 13,000 13,200

22,000 China 22,750 27,500 27,750 27,250 27,250

25,900 India 27,000 29,000 25,800 29,500 29,500

7,000 Pakistan 7,700 8,200 7,600 6,600 6,600

2,650 Turkey 3,200 4,000 3,700 3,400 3,400

12,888 United States 17,170 20,923 18,367 19,800 19,800

3,800 Uzbekistan 3,725 3,860 3,275 3,500 3,500

16,005 Other 18,112 21,076 19,113 18,542 18,460

96,163 Total 106,677 123,779 118,605 121,592 121,710

USE Dom. Consumption none

6,300 Bangladesh 6,800 7,500 7,400 7,400 6,900

3,100 Brazil 3,200 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,300

36,000 China 38,500 41,000 39,500 36,500 35,000

24,750 India 24,350 24,150 24,000 24,500 22,000

3,000 Indonesia 3,300 3,500 3,150 3,000 2,800

10,300 Pakistan 10,300 10,900 10,700 10,800 10,100

6,700 Turkey 6,550 7,450 6,900 7,300 6,800

3,450 United States 3,250 3,225 2,975 3,000 2,900

1,800 Uzbekistan 2,000 2,500 2,800 3,300 3,150

4,500 Vietnam 5,400 6,600 7,000 6,800 6,300

13,332 Other 12,517 12,528 12,474 12,163 11,333

113,232 Total 116,167 122,753 120,299 118,163 110,583

Imports none

6,375 Bangladesh 6,800 7,600 7,200 7,300 6,900

4,406 China 5,032 5,710 9,640 8,250 7,500

1,072 India 2,736 1,677 1,800 2,300 2,000

2,941 Indonesia 3,391 3,517 3,051 3,000 2,900

443 Malaysia 392 739 744 1,000 1,250

975 Mexico 1,000 925 850 800 700

3,300 Pakistan 2,450 3,400 2,850 4,200 3,700

1,275 Thailand 1,226 1,149 1,075 950 875

4,218 Turkey 3,679 4,024 3,499 4,300 4,000

4,600 Vietnam 5,500 7,000 6,900 6,800 6,400

5,839 Other 5,481 5,409 4,864 4,673 4,453

35,444 Total 37,687 41,150 42,473 43,573 40,678

Exports none

2,828 Australia 3,731 3,915 3,632 1,300 1,200

650 Benin 825 1,070 1,300 1,400 1,275

4,314 Brazil 2,789 4,174 6,018 8,800 8,600

1,080 Burkina 1,155 1,225 800 900 850

550 Cameroon 500 400 575 600 550

780 Cote d'Ivoire 625 620 895 1,000 925

959 Greece 1,017 1,076 1,355 1,500 1,450

5,764 India 4,550 5,182 3,511 3,600 3,300

1,000 Mali 1,100 1,300 1,350 1,300 1,200

9,153 United States 14,917 16,279 14,763 16,500 15,000

7,623 Other 6,668 6,343 6,919 6,699 6,289

34,701 Total 37,877 41,584 41,118 43,599 40,639

Ending Stocks none

1,515 Bangladesh 1,630 1,855 1,783 1,813 1,913

5,709 Brazil 6,929 8,657 12,256 13,081 13,581

56,698 China 45,919 37,993 35,670 34,495 35,245

7,044 India 7,880 9,225 9,314 13,014 15,514

2,615 Pakistan 2,315 2,830 2,495 2,370 2,575

1,533 Turkey 1,528 1,777 1,594 1,644 1,844

3,800 United States 2,750 4,200 4,850 5,100 6,700

11,235 Other 11,312 14,201 12,320 11,879 13,891

90,149 Total 80,263 80,738 80,282 83,396 91,263

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 12 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 13: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

Table 04 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production

From last month From last year

MBalesPercent

Yield

(Kilograms per hectare)

Apr 2017/18 MBales

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production

(Million 480 lb. bales)

Change in Production

2017/18

Prel.

2018/19 Mar Mar

Prel.

2018/19 Apr

Prel.

2018/19 Mar Apr Percent

2019/20 Proj.2019/20 Proj. 2019/20 Proj.

2017/18

33.76World 2.623.110.100.12121.7133.49 34.61 34.63 798 771 765 765 123.78 118.61 121.59

4.49United States 7.801.430.000.0019.804.13 4.78 4.78 1,014 968 902 902 20.92 18.37 19.80

29.26Total Foreign 1.671.670.120.12101.9129.36 29.84 29.85 765 743 743 743 102.86 100.24 101.79

none

Western Hemisphere

1.18 Brazil 1.540.201.540.2013.201.64 1.70 1.70 1,708 1,726 1,665 1,691 9.22 13.00 13.00

0.21 Mexico -9.51-0.170.000.001.570.24 0.23 0.23 1,617 1,555 1,519 1,519 1.56 1.74 1.57

0.32 Argentina -10.71-0.120.000.001.000.38 0.36 0.36 558 642 605 605 0.82 1.12 1.00

0.01 Paraguay 0.000.000.000.000.020.01 0.01 0.01 416 416 416 416 0.02 0.02 0.02

0.02 Peru -49.02-0.050.000.000.050.02 0.01 0.01 1,048 1,169 1,029 1,029 0.08 0.10 0.05

0.01 Colombia 9.680.010.000.000.070.01 0.02 0.02 968 1,350 823 823 0.04 0.06 0.07

Africa

0.85 Burkina 17.650.150.000.001.000.63 0.58 0.58 307 294 379 379 1.20 0.85 1.00

0.71 Mali 6.300.080.000.001.350.73 0.74 0.74 432 381 400 400 1.40 1.27 1.35

0.33 Cote d'Ivoire 6.720.060.000.001.000.39 0.43 0.43 536 520 512 512 0.81 0.94 1.00

0.23 Cameroon 7.500.050.000.000.650.25 0.26 0.26 484 523 540 540 0.50 0.60 0.65

0.53 Benin 3.570.050.000.001.450.65 0.68 0.68 468 469 468 468 1.14 1.40 1.45

0.12 Chad 712.500.290.000.000.330.06 0.25 0.25 181 145 283 283 0.10 0.04 0.33

0.16 Togo 3.920.010.000.000.270.18 0.19 0.19 299 308 312 312 0.22 0.26 0.27

0.02 Senegal -13.790.000.000.000.030.02 0.02 0.02 359 301 320 320 0.03 0.03 0.03

0.09 Egypt -37.76-0.19-12.86-0.050.310.14 0.10 0.10 718 757 762 664 0.30 0.49 0.35

0.20 Zimbabwe -5.00-0.010.000.000.190.20 0.20 0.20 294 218 207 207 0.27 0.20 0.19

0.27 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.000.240.27 0.27 0.27 190 190 190 190 0.24 0.24 0.24

Asia Oceania

3.40 China -1.80-0.500.000.0027.253.50 3.45 3.45 1,761 1,726 1,720 1,720 27.50 27.75 27.25

12.60 India 14.343.700.000.0029.5012.60 13.00 13.00 501 446 494 494 29.00 25.80 29.50

2.70 Pakistan -13.16-1.000.000.006.602.30 2.50 2.50 661 719 575 575 8.20 7.60 6.60

0.13 Kazakhstan 7.250.030.000.000.370.13 0.13 0.13 523 587 644 644 0.30 0.35 0.37

0.19 Tajikistan 37.350.160.000.000.570.18 0.18 0.18 671 502 689 689 0.57 0.42 0.57

0.55 Turkmenistan 1.100.01-8.00-0.080.920.55 0.55 0.55 535 364 399 368 1.34 0.91 1.00

1.25 Uzbekistan 6.870.230.000.003.501.10 1.01 1.01 672 648 754 754 3.86 3.28 3.50

0.47 Turkey -8.11-0.300.000.003.400.52 0.56 0.56 1,853 1,549 1,322 1,322 4.00 3.70 3.40

0.53 Australia -71.59-1.58-7.41-0.050.630.38 0.06 0.06 1,972 1,261 2,449 2,268 4.80 2.20 0.68

0.03 Syria 0.000.000.000.000.140.03 0.03 0.03 1,161 1,219 1,219 1,219 0.16 0.14 0.14

0.25 Burma 0.000.000.000.000.700.24 0.24 0.24 634 635 635 635 0.73 0.70 0.70

Europe

0.23 Greece 18.790.271.520.031.680.25 0.28 0.29 1,157 1,253 1,283 1,280 1.22 1.41 1.65

1.71Others 8.550.311.750.073.961.78 1.84 1.86 412 447 460 464 3.24 3.65 3.89

Note: Yeild for Total Foreign and Others is an incorrect calculation.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 13 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 14: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 500351079048 Afghanistan 22

0 001211 Albania 1

30 00303500 Algeria 5

0 0051052 Angola 5

15 45005001,5311,000360 Argentina 581

0 000000 Armenia 0

0 1,2000352,19762560 Australia 962

15 00151800 Austria 3

0 350080541480140 Azerbaijan 111

40 00404800 Bahrain 8

6,900 0106,9008,82314045 Bangladesh 1,913

40 00404600 Belarus 6

30 100203600 Belgium-Luxembour 6

0 1,2750151,6831,450675 Benin 393

2 00101484 Bolivia 4

25 8,60003,30025,48113,2001,700 Brazil 13,581

25 003542102 Bulgaria 7

0 8500251,2801,000575 Burkina 405

50 50725969700240 Burma 239

1 001200 Cambodia 1

0 550020789645260 Cameroon 219

2 002200 Canada 0

0 3200443232 Central African Republic 12

0 185010386325250 Chad 191

0 000000 Chile 0

7,500 175035,00070,42027,2503,450 China 35,245

65 501201646818 Colombia 39

2 0017211530 Congo (Kinshasa) 4

42 00455711 Costa Rica 12

0 9250251,2921,000425 Cote d'Ivoire 342

0 000000 Croatia 0

10 00141644 Cuba 2

0 000000 Cyprus 0

7 007900 Czech Republic 2

0 000000 Denmark 0

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 14 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 15: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

1 004534 Dominican Republic 1

60 00658693 Ecuador 21

450 22510550979305100 Egypt 194

180 0017022411 El Salvador 54

15 00151800 Estonia 3

40 10027536025080 Ethiopia 75

40 50354800 France 8

90 1007510600 Germany 21

0 20010392816 Ghana 9

25 1,45025801,7651,675285 Greece 210

150 0014018732 Guatemala 47

0 1400171412 Guinea 3

5 00101157 Haiti 1

26 00303542 Honduras 5

5 500800 Hong Kong 3

3 300300 Hungary 0

2,000 3,300022,00040,81429,50013,000 India 15,514

2,900 502,8003,43533 Indonesia 630

250 0050067027580 Iran 170

35 0050731510 Iraq 23

0 000000 Ireland 0

2 400456435 Israel 12

160 5012518100 Italy 51

230 0023026400 Japan 34

0 275060513370125 Kazakhstan 178

15 0040582530 Kenya 18

95 001402055519 Korea, North 65

585 15060074600 Korea, South 131

0 1050012511518 Kyrgyzstan 20

7 106900 Latvia 2

5 005600 Lebanon 1

90 008511500 Lesotho 30

0 000000 Lithuania 0

5 005600 Macedonia 1

0 10020453020 Madagascar 15

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 15 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 16: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 70051499080 Malawi 74

1,250 45003501,79600 Malaysia 996

0 1,2000251,8211,350735 Mali 596

120 0011514100 Mauritius 26

700 375251,8503,0351,570225 Mexico 785

70 00608200 Moldova 22

35 00354311 Morocco 8

0 9505186115125 Mozambique 86

15 00151700 Netherlands 2

0 90112104 Nicaragua 2

0 6031495 Niger 5

10 300185314235270 Nigeria 99

3,700 952510,10012,7956,6002,500 Pakistan 2,575

0 000000 Panama 0

8 15014362111 Paraguay 7

240 502803725211 Peru 87

65 00607821 Philippines 18

17 00172000 Poland 3

160 0015020100 Portugal 51

1 001200 Romania 1

100 0010512900 Russia 24

0 2500302517 Senegal 5

8 0081000 Serbia 2

3 500600 Singapore 1

1 001100 Slovakia 0

8 0081000 Slovenia 2

3 001011712 Somalia 1

50 12008540113530 South Africa 196

15 30002036231366 Spain 42

5 00101255 Sri Lanka 2

0 450070739600200 Sudan 219

0 000000 Sweden 0

2 002300 Switzerland 1

0 5006016414025 Syria 54

500 6051564400 Taiwan 123

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 16 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 17: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 375070876570180 Tajikistan 431

0 2300165750500450 Tanzania 355

875 0258501,05421 Thailand 179

0 225015342265185 Togo 102

20 003035102 Tunisia 5

4,000 35006,8008,9943,400560 Turkey 1,844

0 22507701,549920545 Turkmenistan 554

0 14001529317089 Uganda 138

5 005600 Ukraine 1

2 002300 United Kingdom 1

5 15,000552,90024,65519,8004,777 United States 6,700

0 000000 Uruguay 0

0 30003,1504,6583,5001,010 Uzbekistan 1,208

15 00851208515 Venezuela 35

6,400 006,3007,59131 Vietnam 1,291

0 3025342818 Yemen 6

0 17505448210130 Zambia 268

0 1501030349190200 Zimbabwe 159

World

40,678 40,639185110,583242,670121,71034,630 World 91,263

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 17 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 18: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

(1000 MT and 1000 HA)

Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 1108232048 Afghanistan 5

0 000001 Albania 0

7 007800 Algeria 1

0 001212 Angola 1

3 980109333218360 Argentina 126

0 000000 Armenia 0

0 2610847813660 Australia 209

3 003400 Austria 1

0 76017118105140 Azerbaijan 24

9 0091000 Bahrain 2

1,502 021,5021,9213045 Bangladesh 417

9 0091000 Belarus 1

7 204800 Belgium-Luxembour 1

0 27803366316675 Benin 86

0 002324 Bolivia 1

5 1,87207185,5482,8741,700 Brazil 2,957

5 008922 Bulgaria 2

0 18505279218575 Burkina 88

11 10158211152240 Burma 52

0 000000 Cambodia 0

0 12004172140260 Cameroon 48

0 000000 Canada 0

0 70010732 Central African Republic 3

0 40028471250 Chad 42

0 000000 Chile 0

1,633 3807,62015,3325,9333,450 China 7,674

14 1026361518 Colombia 8

0 0045330 Congo (Kinshasa) 1

9 00101201 Costa Rica 3

0 20105281218425 Cote d'Ivoire 74

0 000000 Croatia 0

2 003314 Cuba 0

0 000000 Cyprus 0

2 002200 Czech Republic 0

0 000000 Denmark 0

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 18 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 19: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

(1000 MT and 1000 HA)

Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 001114 Dominican Republic 0

13 00141923 Ecuador 5

98 49212021366100 Egypt 42

39 00374901 El Salvador 12

3 003400 Estonia 1

9 2060785480 Ethiopia 16

9 1081000 France 2

20 20162300 Germany 5

0 4028616 Ghana 2

5 316517384365285 Greece 46

33 00304112 Guatemala 10

0 3004312 Guinea 1

1 002217 Haiti 0

6 007812 Honduras 1

1 100200 Hong Kong 1

1 100100 Hungary 0

435 71804,7908,8866,42313,000 India 3,378

631 1061074813 Indonesia 137

54 001091466080 Iran 37

8 001116310 Iraq 5

0 000000 Ireland 0

0 9011295 Israel 3

35 10273900 Italy 11

50 00505700 Japan 7

0 6001311281125 Kazakhstan 39

3 00913530 Kenya 4

21 0030451219 Korea, North 14

127 3013116200 Korea, South 29

0 2300272518 Kyrgyzstan 4

2 001200 Latvia 0

1 001100 Lebanon 0

20 00192500 Lesotho 7

0 000000 Lithuania 0

1 001100 Macedonia 0

0 20410720 Madagascar 3

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 19 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 20: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

(1000 MT and 1000 HA)

Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 1501322080 Malawi 16

272 9807639100 Malaysia 217

0 26105396294735 Mali 130

26 00253100 Mauritius 6

152 825403661342225 Mexico 171

15 00131800 Moldova 5

8 008901 Morocco 2

0 21014025125 Mozambique 19

3 003400 Netherlands 0

0 200324 Nicaragua 0

0 101325 Niger 1

2 70406851270 Nigeria 22

806 2152,1992,7861,4372,500 Pakistan 561

0 000000 Panama 0

2 3038511 Paraguay 2

52 1061811111 Peru 19

14 00131701 Philippines 4

4 004400 Poland 1

35 00334400 Portugal 11

0 000000 Romania 0

22 00232800 Russia 5

0 5007517 Senegal 1

2 002200 Serbia 0

1 100100 Singapore 0

0 000000 Slovakia 0

2 002200 Slovenia 0

1 0022212 Somalia 0

11 26019872930 South Africa 43

3 6504796866 Spain 9

1 002315 Sri Lanka 0

0 98015161131200 Sudan 48

0 000000 Sweden 0

0 000100 Switzerland 0

0 11013363025 Syria 12

109 1011214000 Taiwan 27

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 20 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 21: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

(1000 MT and 1000 HA)

Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 82015191124180 Tajikistan 94

0 50036163109450 Tanzania 77

191 0518522901 Thailand 39

0 49037458185 Togo 22

4 007822 Tunisia 1

871 7601,4811,958740560 Turkey 401

0 490168337200545 Turkmenistan 121

0 3003643789 Uganda 30

1 001100 Ukraine 0

0 000100 United Kingdom 0

1 3,266126315,3684,3114,777 United States 1,459

0 000000 Uruguay 0

0 6506861,0147621,010 Uzbekistan 263

3 0019261915 Venezuela 8

1,393 001,3721,65311 Vietnam 281

0 1057618 Yemen 1

0 38019846130 Zambia 58

0 33277641200 Zimbabwe 35

World

8,857 8,8484024,07752,83626,49934,630 World 19,870

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 21 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 22: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 06: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 45035978043 Afghanistan 17

0 001211 Albania 1

30 00303500 Algeria 5

0 0051052 Angola 5

5 54505751,6361,120380 Argentina 516

0 000000 Armenia 0

0 3,6320355,2392,200380 Australia 1,572

15 10141800 Austria 3

0 384075520390130 Azerbaijan 61

40 00404800 Bahrain 8

7,200 0107,4009,19313844 Bangladesh 1,783

42 00404600 Belarus 6

30 100203600 Belgium-Luxembour 6

0 1,3000151,5481,400650 Benin 233

2 00101484 Bolivia 4

17 6,01803,40021,67413,0001,640 Brazil 12,256

25 003643102 Bulgaria 7

0 8000251,105850630 Burkina 280

75 50775999700240 Burma 219

1 001200 Cambodia 1

0 575020739600250 Cameroon 144

2 002200 Canada 0

0 3200443232 Central African Republic 12

0 1000101714060 Chad 61

0 000000 Chile 0

9,640 213039,50075,38327,7503,500 China 35,670

84 051451816210 Colombia 31

2 0017211530 Congo (Kinshasa) 4

45 00455911 Costa Rica 14

0 8950251,212937392 Cote d'Ivoire 292

0 000000 Croatia 0

10 00141644 Cuba 2

0 000000 Cyprus 0

7 007900 Czech Republic 2

0 000000 Denmark 0

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 22 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 23: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 06: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

1 004534 Dominican Republic 1

60 00708793 Ecuador 17

500 350106001,184490141 Egypt 224

177 0017021311 El Salvador 43

14 00131600 Estonia 3

30 8027535324377 Ethiopia 70

36 20374700 France 8

86 1308010900 Germany 16

0 15010362816 Ghana 11

31 1,35525901,5351,410245 Greece 65

148 0014517932 Guatemala 34

0 1400171412 Guinea 3

5 00101157 Haiti 1

25 00293442 Honduras 5

7 500800 Hong Kong 3

3 300300 Hungary 0

1,800 3,511024,00036,82525,80012,600 India 9,314

3,051 603,1503,68833 Indonesia 532

300 0057572027580 Iran 145

35 0050731510 Iraq 23

0 000000 Ireland 0

2 450460425 Israel 11

159 5015518100 Italy 21

230 0023526900 Japan 34

0 275065483345128 Kazakhstan 143

15 0040582530 Kenya 18

95 001502055519 Korea, North 55

781 7080096800 Korea, South 161

0 1000011010518 Kyrgyzstan 10

7 106900 Latvia 2

5 005600 Lebanon 1

85 008511000 Lesotho 25

0 000000 Lithuania 0

5 005600 Macedonia 1

0 10020453020 Madagascar 15

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 23 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 24: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 06: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 70051349070 Malawi 59

744 31303501,20900 Malaysia 546

0 1,3500251,8461,270725 Mali 471

120 0012014100 Mauritius 21

850 500251,9503,2401,735243 Mexico 765

60 00607200 Moldova 12

29 00354211 Morocco 7

0 10005176106125 Mozambique 71

16 00151700 Netherlands 2

0 90112104 Nicaragua 2

0 6031495 Niger 5

10 300200299235270 Nigeria 69

2,850 602510,70013,2807,6002,300 Pakistan 2,495

0 000000 Panama 0

2 11014322111 Paraguay 7

214 2031539710219 Peru 80

62 00657621 Philippines 11

16 10162000 Poland 3

174 4017021500 Portugal 41

1 001200 Romania 1

150 2016019100 Russia 29

0 2502322921 Senegal 5

8 0081000 Serbia 2

2 100400 Singapore 3

1 001100 Slovakia 0

7 007900 Slovenia 2

3 001011712 Somalia 1

68 13808944321842 South Africa 216

10 32202037629165 Spain 34

3 00101255 Sri Lanka 2

0 425075639500180 Sudan 139

0 000000 Sweden 0

2 002300 Switzerland 1

0 9006517914025 Syria 24

592 0060074400 Taiwan 144

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 24 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 25: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 06: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 350055711415180 Tajikistan 306

0 2000175625375420 Tanzania 250

1,075 1251,0751,27821 Thailand 177

0 225015317255180 Togo 77

20 003035102 Tunisia 5

3,499 48206,9008,9763,700520 Turkey 1,594

0 15008001,579910545 Turkmenistan 629

0 12501526316181 Uganda 123

3 003400 Ukraine 1

2 002300 United Kingdom 1

3 14,763-182,97522,57018,3674,130 United States 4,850

0 000000 Uruguay 0

0 75002,8004,7083,2751,100 Uzbekistan 1,158

12 001001208515 Venezuela 20

6,900 007,0008,18831 Vietnam 1,188

0 2025332818 Yemen 6

0 15605399200125 Zambia 238

0 1751030374200200 Zimbabwe 159

World

42,473 41,118117120,299241,816118,60533,490 World 80,282

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 25 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 26: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

(1,000 Metric Tons)

Table 06A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseImportsProductio

n

Country

0 410081743 Afghanistan

0 000001 Albania

7 100700 Algeria

0 100112 Angola

1 1121190125244380 Argentina

0 000000 Armenia

0 34279108479380 Australia

3 100300 Austria

0 138401685130 Azerbaijan

9 200900 Bahrain

1,568 388021,6113044 Bangladesh

9 100900 Belarus

7 120400 Belgium-Luxembour

0 5128303305650 Benin

0 100224 Bolivia

4 2,6681,31007402,8301,640 Brazil

5 200822 Bulgaria

0 6117405185630 Burkina

16 4810169152240 Burma

0 000000 Cambodia

0 3112504131250 Cameroon

0 000000 Canada

0 3700732 Central African Republic

0 132202960 Chad

0 000000 Chile

2,099 7,7664608,6006,0423,500 China

18 701321310 Colombia

0 1004330 Congo (Kinshasa)

10 3001001 Costa Rica

0 6419505204392 Cote d'Ivoire

0 000000 Croatia

2 000314 Cuba

0 000000 Cyprus

2 000200 Czech Republic

0 000000 Denmark

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 26 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 27: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

(1,000 Metric Tons)

Table 06A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseImportsProductio

n

Country

0 000114 Dominican Republic

13 4001523 Ecuador

109 49762131107141 Egypt

39 9003701 El Salvador

3 100300 Estonia

7 1520605377 Ethiopia

8 200800 France

19 3301700 Germany

0 2302616 Ghana

7 14295520307245 Greece

32 7003212 Guatemala

0 1300312 Guinea

1 000217 Haiti

5 100612 Honduras

2 110000 Hong Kong

1 010000 Hungary

392 2,02876405,2255,61712,600 India

664 1161068613 Indonesia

65 32001256080 Iran

8 50011310 Iraq

0 000000 Ireland

0 2100195 Israel

35 5103400 Italy

50 7005100 Japan

0 316001475128 Kazakhstan

3 4009530 Kenya

21 1200331219 Korea, North

170 352017400 Korea, South

0 222002318 Kyrgyzstan

2 000100 Latvia

1 000100 Lebanon

19 5001900 Lesotho

0 000000 Lithuania

1 000100 Macedonia

0 3204720 Madagascar

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 27 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 28: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

(1,000 Metric Tons)

Table 06A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseImportsProductio

n

Country

0 1315012070 Malawi

162 1196807600 Malaysia

0 10329405277725 Mali

26 5002600 Mauritius

185 1671095425378243 Mexico

13 3001300 Moldova

6 200801 Morocco

0 15220123125 Mozambique

3 000300 Netherlands

0 020024 Nicaragua

0 110125 Niger

2 15704451270 Nigeria

621 5431352,3301,6552,300 Pakistan

0 000000 Panama

0 2203511 Paraguay

47 1700692219 Peru

13 2001401 Philippines

3 100300 Poland

38 9103700 Portugal

0 000000 Romania

33 6003500 Russia

0 1500621 Senegal

2 000200 Serbia

0 100000 Singapore

0 000000 Slovakia

2 000200 Slovenia

1 0002212 Somalia

15 47300194742 South Africa

2 770046365 Spain

1 000215 Sri Lanka

0 3093016109180 Sudan

0 000000 Sweden

0 000000 Switzerland

0 5200143025 Syria

129 310013100 Taiwan

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 28 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 29: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

(1,000 Metric Tons)

Table 06A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseImportsProductio

n

Country

0 677601290180 Tajikistan

0 544403882420 Tanzania

234 390523401 Thailand

0 17490356180 Togo

4 100722 Tunisia

762 34710501,502806520 Turkey

0 137330174198545 Turkmenistan

0 2727033581 Uganda

1 000100 Ukraine

0 000000 United Kingdom

1 1,0563,214-46483,9994,130 United States

0 000000 Uruguay

0 25216306107131,100 Uzbekistan

3 400221915 Venezuela

1,502 259001,52411 Vietnam

0 1005618 Yemen

0 52340144125 Zambia

0 35382744200 Zimbabwe

World

9,248 17,4808,9522526,19225,82333,490 World

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 29 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 30: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

Table 09: World Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Country Mktg

Year

Beginning

Stocks

Area

Harvested

Production Imports Total

Supply

Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Stock to

Use %

World

3631,05785,88064285,23833,481150,41833,58284,22233,83132,614 1988/89

2924,98487,13923486,90531,357143,48032,70379,72031,69631,057 1989/90

3227,47385,69417085,52429,560142,72730,57887,16533,15324,984 1990/91

4336,97186,55636886,18828,204151,73129,02495,23434,75827,473 1991/92

4034,51086,4006386,33725,435146,34527,06782,30732,64336,971 1992/93

3327,83385,70314385,56026,620140,15627,96777,67930,71834,510 1993/94

3832,02084,292-33084,62228,118144,43030,30086,29732,25027,833 1994/95

4740,13585,396-54485,94027,396152,92727,00493,90335,92032,020 1995/96

5144,63987,351-58587,93626,777158,76728,57990,05333,74040,135 1996/97

5749,47386,686-58187,26726,777162,93625,92992,36833,79744,639 1997/98

6252,85883,651-1,11484,76523,517160,02624,48086,07332,88549,473 1998/99

5651,14490,490-60291,09227,126168,76027,99387,90932,35052,858 1999/00

5449,56290,724-1,42492,14826,156166,44226,20989,08932,01151,144 2000/01

5854,68093,601-78194,38229,081177,36229,29798,50333,71749,562 2001/02

4947,88297,608-80498,41230,400175,89030,18891,02230,77954,680 2002/03

4948,37697,179-90998,08833,152178,70734,15096,67532,25847,882 2003/04

5660,977107,960-1,245109,20534,949203,88633,965121,54535,75948,376 2004/05

5361,906115,178-1,793116,97144,922222,00644,668116,36134,49460,977 2005/06

5162,987122,493-1,715124,20837,416222,89638,305122,68534,70561,906 2006/07

5061,878121,743-2,094123,83738,868222,48939,453120,04932,87862,987 2007/08

5661,453108,860-1,436110,29630,207200,52030,573108,06930,62261,878 2008/09

3946,179119,482-12119,49435,804201,46536,928103,08430,18761,453 2009/10

4349,288115,611119115,49234,875199,77436,297117,29833,82646,179 2010/11

6972,055103,906-210104,11645,994221,95545,423127,24436,05649,288 2011/12

8389,336107,900-343108,24346,350243,58647,630123,90134,31672,055 2012/13

9199,904109,99892109,90640,997250,89941,204120,35932,85589,336 2013/14

95106,739112,499268112,23135,948255,18636,065119,21733,86599,904 2014/15

8090,149113,496264113,23234,701238,34635,44496,16330,752106,739 2015/16

6980,263116,373206116,16737,877234,51337,687106,67729,81190,149 2016/17

6680,738122,870117122,75341,584245,19241,150123,77933,75580,263 2017/18

6780,282120,416117120,29941,118241,81642,473118,60533,49080,738 2018/19

8391,263110,768185110,58340,639242,67040,678121,71034,63080,282 2019/20

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 30 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 31: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

Table 10: United States Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Yield Beginning

Stocks

Production Imports Total

Supply

Exports Use Loss Ending

Stocks

Stock to

Use %

United States

517,0921657,7826,14821,187515,4115,7716944,835 1988/89

183,000-1638,7597,69419,290212,1967,0926883,860 1989/90

142,344-2858,6577,79318,509415,5053,0007114,748 1990/91

233,70489,6136,64619,9711317,6142,3447315,245 1991/92

304,662-19010,2505,20119,923116,2183,7047854,501 1992/93

203,530-810,4186,86220,802616,1344,6626795,173 1993/94

132,650-3811,1989,40223,2122019,6623,5307945,391 1994/95

142,6092710,6477,67520,95840817,9002,6506026,478 1995/96

223,971-811,1266,86521,95440318,9422,6097915,216 1996/97

213,8874111,3497,50022,7771318,7933,9717545,425 1997/98

273,939-39410,4014,29818,24443913,9183,8877014,324 1998/99

233,91514510,1946,75021,0049716,9683,9396805,433 1999/00

386,000-4838,8626,74021,1191617,1883,9157085,282 2000/01

407,4481807,69611,00026,3242120,3036,0007905,596 2001/02

285,3851667,27311,90024,7246717,2097,4487465,025 2002/03

173,4502116,26613,75823,6854518,2555,3858184,858 2003/04

265,4951086,69114,43626,7302923,2513,4509585,284 2004/05

266,069-2005,87117,67329,4132823,8905,4959315,586 2005/06

539,4793034,93512,95927,6761921,5886,0699125,152 2006/07

5510,0514294,58413,63428,6981219,2079,4799854,245 2007/08

386,337-2633,54113,26122,876012,82510,0519123,063 2008/09

192,947-143,55012,03718,520012,1836,3378703,049 2009/10

142,6001823,90014,37621,058918,1022,9479104,330 2010/11

223,350-1723,30011,71418,1921915,5732,6008863,829 2011/12

233,8003483,50013,02620,6741017,3143,3509993,772 2012/13

172,3502923,55010,53016,7221312,9093,8009213,051 2013/14

253,6502103,57511,24618,6811216,3192,3509393,785 2014/15

303,8001683,4509,15316,5713312,8883,6508593,268 2015/16

152,750603,25014,91720,977717,1703,8009723,848 2016/17

224,200-283,22516,27923,676320,9232,7501,0144,492 2017/18

274,850-182,97514,76322,570318,3674,2009684,130 2018/19

376,700552,90015,00024,655519,8004,8509024,777 2019/20

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 31 April 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 32: COVID-19 Spurs Record Downward Adjustments to …...declines in global GDP for the first half of CY 2020, weak consumer demand is forecast to persist and negatively impact cotton demand

Table 11: Foreign Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Yield Beginning

Stocks

Production Imports Total

Supply

Exports Use Loss Ending

Stocks

Total Foreign

25,12945576,86721,767124,21830,57471,66021,98454928,405 1990/91

33,26736076,57521,558131,76029,01177,62025,12957329,513 1991/92

29,84825376,08720,234126,42227,06666,08933,26751128,142 1992/93

24,30315175,14219,758119,35427,96161,54529,84852525,545 1993/94

29,370-29273,42418,716121,21830,28066,63524,30354026,859 1994/95

37,526-57175,29319,721131,96926,59676,00329,37056229,442 1995/96

40,668-57776,81019,912136,81328,17671,11137,52654328,524 1996/97

45,586-62275,91819,277140,15925,91673,57540,66856528,372 1997/98

48,919-72074,36419,219141,78224,04172,15545,58655028,561 1998/99

47,229-74780,89820,376147,75627,89670,94148,91957426,917 1999/00

43,562-94183,28619,416145,32326,19371,90147,22958626,729 2000/01

47,232-96186,68618,081151,03829,27678,20043,56260528,121 2001/02

42,497-97091,13918,500151,16630,12173,81347,23262425,754 2002/03

44,926-1,12091,82219,394155,02234,10578,42042,49762327,400 2003/04

55,482-1,353102,51420,513177,15633,93698,29444,92670230,475 2004/05

55,837-1,593111,10027,249192,59344,64092,47155,48269628,908 2005/06

53,508-2,018119,27324,457195,22038,286101,09755,83774529,553 2006/07

51,827-2,523119,25325,234193,79139,441100,84253,50876728,633 2007/08

55,116-1,173106,75516,946177,64430,57395,24451,82775227,559 2008/09

43,2322115,94423,767182,94536,92890,90155,11672927,138 2009/10

46,688-63111,59220,499178,71636,28899,19643,23273229,496 2010/11

68,705-38100,81634,280203,76345,404111,67146,68875432,227 2011/12

85,536-691104,74333,324222,91247,620106,58768,70576030,544 2012/13

97,554-200106,35630,467234,17741,191107,45085,53678529,804 2013/14

103,08958108,65624,702236,50536,053102,89897,55474530,080 2014/15

86,34996109,78225,548221,77535,41183,275103,08966027,484 2015/16

77,513146112,91722,960213,53637,68089,50786,34975125,963 2016/17

76,538145119,52825,305221,51641,147102,85677,51376529,263 2017/18

75,432135117,32426,355219,24642,470100,23876,53874329,360 2018/19

84,563130107,68325,639218,01540,673101,91075,43274329,853 2019/20

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 32 April 2020Global Market Analysis