COVID-19

30th April 2020

Weekly Economic Watch

2

Introduction

Highlights

This is the third edition of our weekly economic watch, issued in the context of economic and financial developments arising in the midst of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The views

expressed in the document are based on our current assessment of the situation. Readers are, however, advised to take cognizance of the highly dynamic nature of the operating landscape,

which may, therefore, cause opinions and forecasts to evolve rapidly over time.

• A number of countries around the world have started to loosen the strict COVID-19 related restrictions that had been imposed on the mobility of people and conduct ofactivities. In general, the lockdown exit plans are scheduled to be implemented in a phased manner, with continued adherence to the advice on staying at home ifsymptomatic, the maintenance of physical distancing, and a persisting ban, for some time yet, on group gatherings.

• Data-wise, the week has been dominated by the release of first readings of quarterly economic growth figures for major advanced economies, while the legacy of the crisisis beginning to flare up, notably in respect of rising debt burdens.

• As for international financial markets, stocks have gathered some steam during the week as major economies have moved to ease lockdown measures. In the US, equitiesare now trending close to pre-crisis levels while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury has risen in an indication of reduced pessimism in the market.

• Regarding commodity prices, while Brent and WTI crude oil prices have recovered somewhat from their historical lows observed the previous week, the oil market remainsunder pressure, with the agreement to cut oil production likely to be insufficient to deal with the continued declines in demand in May. Elsewhere, after closing at a seven-year high during mid-April, gold prices have slipped marginally during the last days as some countries are gearing up for gradually reopening their economies.

• In Mauritius, the process leading towards post-confinement, when it happens, will be undertaken in a phased manner. As the situation stands, there are increasinglyconcordant indications that several economic sectors would take a severe hit from the pandemic, with a return to normal likely to take some time.

3

Countries prepare to peel back severe lockdown restrictions …

Lockdown exit plans

Governments across several countries are outlining detailed plans to ease their lockdowns as they seek an exit route from the confinement measures brought in to contain the impact of COVID-19. The following depicts the key highlights of exit plans designed by selected countries.

Czech Republic – Reopened universities on27th April as part of several lifted restrictions in recent days.Non-essential travel is now permitted on reasonable groundsas well as meetings in groups smaller than 10 but masks aremandatory in public.

Spain – Children are now permitted to leave theirhomes once per day with an adult. Government isexpected to allow outdoor exercise and walks as from 2nd

May, provided infection rate continues to slow.

Norway – Government has prioritised the reopening ofschools on 27th April as it begins to scale back on lockdownmeasures introduced on 12th March.

France – Gradual opening, as from 11th May, of schools,shops (except those in shopping centres) and businesses.Restaurants, bars, hotels to remain closed. Masks would beobligatory where physical distancing is not possible. Publictransport set to resume with 70% of the Paris network to run.

Greece – Registry offices and courts reopened on27th April, with plans under discussion to reopen somecommercial outlets as from next week.

Austria – Larger shops, shopping centres andhairdressers due to reopen from 1st May. Restaurants andhotels to reopen from mid-May if health conditions allow.

Albania – Shops and courts to be reopened this week andpeople will be permitted to be outside for more than thecurrent 90 minutes per day. Decision on schools to be madenext week.

Portugal – The authorities aim to start liftingrestrictions from start of May, with further easing to beconsidered every 15 days.

Denmark – Daycare centres and schools for youngerchildren reopened on 15th April. Restaurants/cafes to remainclosed and gatherings of more than 10 people banned until10th May.

Italy – The authorities plan to restart manufacturing on 4th

May. Veneto has last week defied the central government andrelaxed restrictions on cemeteries, takeaways and pizzerias.

Germany – Measures eased last week, leading to anincrease in social activity that has worried some healthauthorities. Masks to be mandatory in shops and on publictransport from 27th April.

Belgium – Shops to open as from 11th May, with schoolsreopening the following week but with caps on the number ofpupils in each class. Fabric shops will open on 4 May, to helppeople comply with new regulations requiring those aged 12or over to wear masks on public transport.

Switzerland – Opened some businesses such asapproved hairdressers and flower shops but next stagebegins 11th May when primary school children return toschool and all retail stores reopen.

US – US states are beginning to lift lockdown orders. Georgia,Oklahoma, Alaska and South Carolina have already allowedsome businesses to reopen.

New Zealand – Effective 28th April, healthcare andeducation activity have resumed. Social distancing rules are stillin place, and hairdressers, pubs, malls and other public shoppingareas would remain closed for at least another fortnight.

4

… while the first set of economic data released confirm the scale of the crisis …

First economic releases

Announcements by major Central Banks

• In the first quarter of the year, the US economy contracted by its fastest rate since the 2008 financial crisis, ending the longest expansion on record as lockdowns aimed atcurbing the coronavirus pandemic impacted economic activity. GDP shrank by a 4.8% annualised rate in the first three months of the year, according to the preliminaryestimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, exceeding forecasts previously made. The biggest driver of US economic growth – personal consumption – dropped by7.6%, which marked the biggest decline since 1980. Moving forward, it is feared that the extent of the collapse caused by the pandemic would become more apparentwhen second quarter data is released, with preliminary indications suggesting that the US economy could suffer a double digit contraction in Q2.

• Regarding the EU, the European Commission indicated that its overall economic sentiment indicator fell at a record rate of 28.8 points to 65.8 across the zone in April,which is close to the all-time lows of the financial crash a decade ago. The fall is likely to have been even more severe because the survey could not be carried out in Italy.Furthermore, as per figures released by Eurostat, GDP contracted by 3.8% in the euro area and by 3.5% in the European Union during the first quarter of 2020 comparedwith the previous quarter. These growth outcomes represent the sharpest declines observed since time series started in 1995 as per the Eurostat.

• At the end of a two-day meeting, the US Federal Reserve kept the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 0 and 0.25 per cent, the level prevailing sinceMarch 15. In its statement, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee mentioned that it would keep rates close to zero until it is confident that the economy hasweathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals. To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, theFederal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

• The European Central Bank has, at its meeting this week, launched a fresh push to lend to banks at ultra-low rates. Specifically, towards bolstering the European bankingsystem’s access to funds and to avoid a drying up of credit, the ECB said it would lend money at rates as low as minus 1 per cent to banks and launched a fresh round ofliquidity on generous terms. Additionally, the ECB kept its main deposit rate on hold at an all-time low of minus 0.5 per cent, and stuck to its plan to buy more than €1tnof assets this year to shore up financial markets and keep borrowing costs low for households, businesses and governments.

• The Bank of Japan expanded monetary stimulus and pledged to buy unlimited amount of bonds to keep borrowing costs low to support the economy. The Bank sharplycut its growth forecast and now expects that the economy will shrink by 3 to 5% during the fiscal year to next March, compared with a previous estimate of 0.8 to 1.1%.The Central Bank also expects inflation to fall well short of its 2% target for three more years, suggesting its near-term focus will be to battle the crisis.

… which is requiring major measures by authorities

Singapore - The Government’s risk-share as part of the Enterprise Financing Scheme’s Working Capital Loan was increased to 80% and the maximum loan amount was doubledJapan - The Japan Federation of Credit Guarantee Corporations (JFG) will guarantee the full loan amount for SMEs affected by the outbreak, under a new frameworkUS - After an initial USD 349 billion funding used within 2 weeks, an additional USD 320 billion Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) has been made available for SMEsUK - Introduction of ‘bounce-back loans’ that give UK’s small businesses guaranteed access to loans worth 25% of their turnover, up to £50,000 which is interest-free for the first year

Financial instruments: loan guarantees; direct lending to SMEs; grants and subsidies

Deferral: income/ corporate tax; Value Added Tax (VAT); social security and rent/utilities/ local tax and debt moratorium

Labour: partial redundancies; wage subsidies and self-employed

Structural policies: new markets; teleworking/ digitalisation; innovation; training and redeployment

France - After an examination of companies severely impacted by the coronavirus situation, the authorities would grant tax rebates with respect to corporate income tax on a case-by-case basisGreece - Introduction of a four-month deferral of VAT payments due at the end of March for companies which shut down for at least 10 daysFrance and Germany - Offer of conflict mediation between SMEs and clients/suppliers, and credit mediation to help SMEs wishing to renegotiate credit terms

China - Large enterprises being encouraged to cooperate with SMEs, by increasing their support in supply chains, in terms of loan recovery, raw material supply, and project outsourcingKorea - Introduction of measures to encouraging brick-and-mortar shops to open their business onlineNew Zealand - Allocated NZD 100 million to help redeploy workers, affected by the economic impact of COVID-19, into local alternative employment for the next three to six months

Netherlands - Companies expecting a drop in value added (minimum 20%), can ask for a compensation of 90% of wage costs, where 80% can be given in advance.France - Shortening of procedures to encourage firms to have recourse to temporary lay-offs

5

In the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak, the authorities worldwide have taken wide-ranging and substantial support measures to help preserve the running and viability ofindustries, assist in compensating individuals for earnings shortfall or loss of jobs, boost liquidity and supply of credit as well as guarantee loans, amongst others. Whilebusinesses across sectors are finding it challenging, the pandemic is proving particularly difficult for SMEs. As stressed in a report by the OECD, results of 31 SME surveys indicatethat up to 50% could go out of business over the next three months without further support measures. Some measures provided to SMEs across countries are depicted below.

A concerted effort towards a debt-resolution strategy

COVID-19’s debt bequest

6

Overall, the crisis is exacerbating debt burdens …

UNCTAD - On 30 March, UNCTAD called for a USD 2.5 trillion coronavirus crisis package for developing countries.

• While there is still substantial uncertainty regarding the actual outcome of the COVID-19 outbreak,one legacy of the pandemic looks certain. Governments around the world will be left with a pile ofdebt as they are taking fiscal actions amounting to trillions to contain the pandemic and its damage tothe economy. As per IMF estimates, fiscal deficits in the rich world could average some 11% of GDP in2020, even with no lockdown in the second half of the year, while debt levels would climb from 105%to 120% of GDP. Emerging markets and developing economies would also face up to rising debtburdens. With regard specifically to the sub-Saharan African region, the IMF expects that average debtlevels would rise from 58% in 2019 to 64% of GDP in 2020, while the World Bank recently indicatedthat massive fiscal costs could lead several Governments to default on their debt. Approximately 17Governments, including Angola, Ghana, Nigeria, and Zambia, have bond spreads that exceed 1,000basis points, a threshold value that typically preceded defaults. The scale of the threat is such thatinternational organisations are moving quickly and boldly to increase emergency funding, throughdifferent modes of financial assistance, alongside suspending debt payments in some cases.

IMF - On April 13, the IMF approved Immediate Debt Relief for 25 countries, providing grants to cover their IMF debt obligations for an initial phase over the next six months. The Fund isworking to almost triple its response (through the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust) from about USD 500 million to USD 1.4 billion to extend the duration of relief.

G-20 - On April 15, G-20 nations announced their decision to freeze all bilateral government loan repayments due from eligible low-income countries starting on May 1 and until end of2020.

Contribution to the change in global Government debt (% of GDP)

Sources: IMF, UNCTAD, World Bank

Multilateral development banks - The World Bank has earmarked over USD 160 billion of financing, on highly concessional terms, to be disbursed in 2020 and 2021, and the four majorregional development banks (namely, the African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the Inter-AmericanDevelopment Bank) have committed to roughly USD 80 billion over the same period, bringing the running total to about USD 240 billion through to the end of 2021

7

… while ongoing developments continue to dictate financial markets movements …

Key highlights during the week

• Risk appetite on international financial markets was boosted by the news that a number of countries wouldgradually ease COVID-19 related restrictions over the weeks ahead. Equities were, in general, on the rise lately.

• Interestingly, the US Treasury yield curve, whose movements are watched by traders for harbingers of economicrecession, has shifted back into positive territory in recent times, after having inverted for some time duringJanuary and February. While it is believed that the US Federal Reserve’s unprecedented stimulus efforts havealtered how the current economic cycle would play out, the fact that the yield curve has un-inverted does not meanthe problems are gone. Campbell Harvey – the Professor who uncovered the inverted yield curve as a recessionindicator – stressed that the model links the slope of the yield curve to economic growth or future economicgrowth, and that irrespective of the slope of the curve now, the US economy is on course to register a markedslowdown, at least in the short term.

As at 29 April 2020w.o.w

changey.t.d

change

MSCI World 2,070.8 4.9% -12.2%

S&P 500 2,939.5 5.1% -9.0%

Dow Jones 24,633.9 4.8% -13.7%

Nasdaq 8,914.7 4.9% -0.6%

FTSE 100 6,115.3 5.0% -18.9%

CAC 40 4,671.1 4.9% -21.9%

DAX 11,107.7 5.6% -16.2%

Nikkei 19,771.2 1.8% -16.4%

10-year US Treasury yield

0.63% 0.03 pp -1.3 pp

US

Europe

Asia

Stocks

Bonds

Sources: Bloomberg & US Treasury

The market's favourite recession indicator has stopped flashing red

Note: Market participants use yield

curves to gauge the relationship

between risk and time for debt at

various maturities. A normal yield curve

is one in which shorter-term debt

instruments have a lower yield than

longer-term debt instruments. An

inverted yield curve means long-term

government bond yields are below

short-term interest rate-0.4

-0.2

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Yield spread 10 yr - 3 months

Inverted yield curve

10-Year yield to 3-month yield spread

8

Oil market: A major timing problem

Sources: World Bank, The Economist, WEF, Yahoo Finance and Reuters

• It can be recalled that the price of the May futures contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil plunged to a hitherto unfathomable level of – USD 40 during the last week. Theprice of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, sank too, although both recovered somewhat lately. Yet, the oil markets remain faced with a major timing problem. Indeed, outputis unlikely to drop quickly enough to bring oil markets into balance in May, June or even later, as global supply could exceed demand in the second quarter by more than 13 millionbarrels a day. In the meantime, storage across America is filling up rapidly and could reach tank tops in June. Brent crude is seaborne and, therefore, less vulnerable to transport andstorage problems than landlocked WTI. But, it too faces constraints. The volume of oil stored on ships has jumped by 70% since the beginning of March.

... and mixed fortunes are being observed in commodity markets

Price of gold futures Price of sugar futures

1,000

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USD

/to

z

Price of Gold Futures

• Gold prices have surged to a seven-year high during mid-April as rising fears over the scale of the impending economic downturn continue to drive investors away from risk. This week, prices wereunder bearish pressure as many countries around the world geared up about reopening their economies, shifting investors’ attention away from safe-haven assets.

• The marked decline in international oil prices has, in particular, led millers in Brazil to divert more cane to sugar production, with ethanol becoming less competitive as compared to gasoline.Additionally, the Brazilian real has depreciated against the US dollar, thus making the export of sugar more attractive than ethanol production in the domestic market. All in all, such dynamics havetriggered a sharp decline in sugar prices on the world market.

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Price of Sugar Futures

9

The sub-Saharan African region is heading into a deep recession

• This year, sub-Saharan Africa is poised to witness one of its worst growth downturns in decades. Given the difficulty of containing the virus on the continent, there is areal risk that the damage to the economy and society could be more protracted than elsewhere.

• Strains on balance of payments are being compounded by capital outflows from Emerging Markets (EMs). African economies are among the most dependent onforeign capital inflows and have the largest external vulnerabilities.

• Below are the key takeaways on the outlook for sub-regions from the latest African Economic Outlook by Capital Economics.

The unprecedented threat for sub-Saharan Africa

• The collapse in incomes caused by the fall in global oil prices could push Angola into deep recession this year and its Central Bank is likely to allow the exchange rates toweaken. It is looking increasingly likely that Angola will seek to restructure its sovereign debt.

• South Africa is likely to suffer one of the largest falls in GDP of any major EM this year.• Zambia is set for a deep recession this year due to a collapse in global copper prices and numerous mine closures. With dwindling foreign exchange inflows and fragile

public finances, the authorities already seem to have started debt restructuring talks.

• The pandemic outbreak and collapse in oil prices are likely to push Nigeria’s economy into its sharpest recession since its financial crisis in the early 1980s, with the nairalikely to fall further.

• Pressure on the Ghana budget has already prompted the authorities to seek assistance from the IMF. The approved USD 1 billion disbursement and a debt servicemoratorium on bilateral loans will ease concerns over urgent financing needs. But, with the high debt ratio, IMF could ask for debt restructuring to ensure sustainability.

Southern Africa

West Africa

East Africa

• The reduction in exports will force the Central Bank of Ethiopia to sell reserves to prevent a sharper fall in the birr. Ethiopia has an IMF programme in place, but, given thealready high public debt ratio, the Fund may request a restructuring.

Source: Capital Economics, African Economic Outlook, April 2020

10

In Mauritius, the process of returning to ‘normal’ will be progressive …

• Since the 14th of April, only 10 new positive cases of COVID-19 have been reported in Mauritius and 90% of cases have now recovered. In this context, the authorities areworking on a plan for a phased easing of confinement measures and the curfew in place in the country.

• That being said, it is evident that nationwide economic activity is expected to pick up only gradually, with different sectors switching on at different periods, the more so whenmaking allowance for measures that are likely to remain in place for some time yet, e.g. physical distancing and bans on crowds or concentrations.

Number of new positive cases

Deg

ree

of

imp

act

Time for activity to reach a reasonable level Longest

Hig

hes

t

Degree of impact and recovery time for key sectors

Business

Process

Outsourcing

Notes:(i) The size of the bubble in the chart corresponds to value added generated by the sector in theMauritian economy.

(ii) The above classification is only indicative, based on an assessment of the current situation, and issubject to change, depending on the propagation of the pandemic and measures deployed to contain it.

0.900602

0

5

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ar21

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Non-sugar agriculture

Seafood

Wholesale & retail trade

Domestic oriented

industries

Financial sector

Transport (excluding aviation)

AviationConstruction &

real estate

Business Process Outsourcing

Textile

Tourism & hospitality

Arts & Recreation

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Time for activity to start picking up

11

… with the tourism sector set to witness a longer recovery period

Likely shape of recovery• As stressed in previous editions, the tourism sector would take a significant hit from the COVID-19pandemic through the interplay between several factors, notably:

o the ramifications of containment measures deployed locally and worldwide;o restrictions on international travel and the deteriorating health of the airline industry; ando the decline in disposable income in our main markets in the wake of pay cuts and/or job losses.

• The actual outcome would eventually depend on how the afore-mentioned factors evolve over timeand the effectiveness of measures put in place locally and abroad to support economic activities.

The following assumptions are made to estimate the potential loss in tourism earnings and determine thepossible shape of recovery in the tourism sector:

• The pandemic fades in the second half of the year on the worldwide scale and containment efforts aregradually unwound, with international travel restrictions lifted only in late Q3 2020

• A modest pick-up in arrivals is foreseen as from Q4 2020, with a return to pre-pandemic levels not to beobserved before Q4 2021 based on projections of international tourist arrivals and views by local operators

• Despite benefitting from a weaker rupee, some hotels are expected to cut prices more than proportionatelyin the face of lower demand, with the average tourist also reducing its spending

A shortfall in tourism earnings (compared to 2019 levels) of around Rs 40 billion this year

Likely shape of recovery

Tourist arrivals

Tourism earnings

200

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2016 2017 2018 2019 2020(f) 2021(f)

000s

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Rs

bn

Sources: Statistics Mauritius, Bank of Mauritius & MCB Treasury

Note: The Key Repo Rate isthe key policy rate used bythe Bank of Mauritius tosignal changes in itsmonetary policy stance.

Whereas inflation remains contained, pressures continue to be cast on Forex and money markets …

Key Repo Rate and monthly overall weighted yields MUR v/s main currencies

12

Headline inflation

Note: Headline inflation ismeasured by comparing theaverage level of prices, asmeasured by the CPI, duringa 12-month period with theaverage level during thecorresponding previous 12-month period.

1.2

0.0

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Note: An increase/decrease in the index corresponds to a depreciation / appreciation of the Mauritian rupee

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Ind

ex:

03

Jan

202

0 =

100

Evolution of MUR against main currencies

USD GBP EURO

Mid-rate

30-Apr-20 m.o.m y.o.y y.t.d

MUR % % %

USD 40.00 2.4 13.8 9.8

Euro 43.38 0.5 10.6 6.9

GBP 49.78 3.2 9.8 4.3

(Appreciation)/Depreciation of the rupee

0

1

2

3

4

Jan-

20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

%

Key Repo Rate Average weighted yield on T-bills

13

… as well as the Stock Exchange of Mauritius

Evolution of the SEMDEXContribution to change in SEMDEX by sector since the

beginning of the year

Ceased trading

1,400.00

1,600.00

1,800.00

2,000.00

2,200.00

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SEM

DEX

-p

oin

ts

-400 -300 -200 -100 0

Banking, Insurance

Commerce

Industry

Investments

Leisure & Hotels

Property development

Sugar

Transport

points

(%) in points (%) in points

SEMDEX -27.9 -607.6 -5.2 -65.5

As at 30 April y.t.d change w.o.w change

14

Concluding remarks

• In the periods ahead, in line with modalities and requirements set by the Government, a major challenge for Mauritius will be how to implement a responsible lockdown exitstrategy and find the safest way forward for the welfare of the population, alongside allowing citizenry to progressively reestablish some normality in their lives. That said,Mauritius will be stepping into a relatively unknown territory and will confront unprecedented realities as the mobility of its people and economic activities resume and gainmomentum over time. Bearing this in mind, a key objective is to ensure that mobility restrictions are lifted in a thoughtful, coordinated and steady manner given the risksnormally associated with rash decisions, as observed in some countries which, during the post-confinement period, witnessed a resurgence of infections, that, in turn,undermined hard-won gains. In another spirit, mindful of the potential increase in health and sanitary threats that augmented human contact can instigate if left unchecked, itwould be crucial that every one of us upholds strict vigilance and carefulness in the conduct of our daily interactions, in compliance with national rules and guidelines. At thesame time, the changing operating landscape calls for strategic measures already deployed by the public and private sectors to contain the propagation of the pandemic to befurther stepped up, with emphasis inter alia on upscaling of reliable testing capabilities, increased mobilisation of resources for contact tracing purposes and the disseminationof adequate medical facilities, notably protective equipment. Recently, amidst the country’s plans to gradually ease its lockdown, the Australian Prime Minister stressed, “It’sgoing to be step by step, there is going to be some trial and error, this is completely uncharted territory. No country in the world has worked this out yet … we will all worktogether and we will all find a way through.” Overall, while capitalising on extensive and regular consultations with stakeholders, the onus for Mauritius is to move forwardwith discipline and pragmatism, with our main salute likely to, in all probability, be our national collective resolve and the collaboration of each and every individual.

• Furthermore, besides offering immediate relief to industries and reliable safety nets to vulnerable sections of society, it would, beyond the short run, be imperative forMauritius to promptly implement a broad-based, targeted and time-bound stimulus plan to help shore up its economic recovery as it emerges from the pandemic, alongsidelaying favourable grounds to, in due course, further transform the nationwide economic paradigm as well as promote high and inclusive GDP growth. Not far from us, thePresident of South Africa announced “We are now embarking on the second phase of our economic response to stabilise the economy. As part of this phase, we are announcingthis evening a massive social relief and an economic support package of ZAR 500 billion, which amounts to around 10% of GDP.” Essentially, though it remains quite hard tothink ahead of the COVID-19 pandemic, the challenge for us – beyond strengthening resilience against health risks – is to help sectors regain their productive capabilities,incentivise employers to retain and recruit people, and stimulate consumption and investment. Towards those ends, a major prerequisite is to undertake a dispassionate andwholesome appraisal of the nature and extent of economic hardships faced by businesses and households with a view to coming up with an optimal mix of monetary, fiscaland structural policies. In turn, to execute the stimulus plan in an opportune and comprehensive manner, an important consideration is the careful prospection of suitablesources of funding, on both the local and international fronts. On this note, whereas it is understandable that our fiscal and debt indicators would, in line with global trends, beadversely impacted as we deal with socio-economic challenges, a key success factor for the stimulus plan to work out is to exercise strict discipline over earmarked outlays andrelated beneficiaries. As highlighted by the OECD, “Fiscal stimulus packages should be temporary, well-communicated, and not create permanent deficits.” In addition to that,the national stimulus plan should manage to yield robust and long-lasting benefits if backed by the following: (i) formulation of a clear roadmap of initiatives, backed by well-defined milestones; (ii) establishment of effective coordination across different layers of policy making; and (iii) strengthening of institutional ownership and accountability.

This report has been prepared by the Strategy, Research & Development (SRD) department of MCB Ltd.

For more information, please contact the SRD Economic Analysis team on (230) 202-6381/ (230) 202-5814 or economic.analysis@mcb.mu