cphc information group report 2009 · ucl april 2009 •headlines from report: –at a time when...

Information Group

CPHC Conference:UCL April 2009

Professor Lachlan MacKinnon,

Head of School of Computing & Creative Technologies

University of Abertay Dundee

CPHC Information Group Report 2009

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•Information Group 2008-9•Mandate:

•Develop responses on public consultations of relevance toCPHC, in concert with BCS and UKCRC•Develop information resources to support CPHC activities,particularly in lobbying government and funding agencies•Commission and coordinate research to link together existingactivities by e-skills UK, industry and public agencies.•Identify and, where possible, populate gaps in existing researchrelative to CPHC agenda.

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• Information Group Activities– Team has responded, as required, in public

consultations– Major pieces of work during the year:

• A Study on the IT Labour Market in the UK - a report byResearch Insights, commissioned by CPHC through BCS,coordinated by Lachlan MacKinnon and Liz Bacon,completed June 2008, on website

• Briefing note and precis for meeting with Bill Rammell andDIUS, circulated to members and available on CPHCwebsite

• Consultation responses on STEM, Department of Science,GCSE ICT and Digital Britain, available on website

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• Research Insights report:– Commissioned late December 2007 to consider:

• Computing graduates passing out from UK Higher EducationInstitutes (HEIs)

• Destination of Computing graduates passing out from UKHEIs

– Graduates working in the IT industry– Graduates working in the non-IT industry– Destination of graduates after passing out from UK HEIs

• UK IT job market• IT skills gap and immigration as a result of the skills gap

– Report completed June 2008, and released to press.

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• Headlines from Report:– At a time when the number of Higher Education students and graduations for “All

Subjects” is at a record high, Higher Education Computing student numbers andgraduations are falling.

• Students:HE Computing students fell by 22.3% from 2003-04 to 2006-07 (from 137,650 down to106,910), and are now at their lowest level since 2001.

– Over the same period “All subject” student numbers increased by 5.1% (from2,247,440 to 2,362,815)

• Graduations:HE Computing graduations fell by 16.5% from 2004-05 to 2006-07 (from 37,445 down to31,270), and are now at their lowest level since 2002.

– Over the same period “All subject” graduations increased by 2.8% (from 633,045 to651,060)

– An even larger decline can be seen in the number of pupils studying A-LevelComputing courses (down 46.8% since 2003). This will contribute to a continuingdecline in future applications for Higher Education Computing courses.

• The number of pupils studying Computing at A-Level has fallen every year since an all timehigh in 2003 (down 48.6% from 10,913 to 5,610).

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• Headlines (cont.)• Without significant intervention, the fall in the annual number of Computing graduates will

continue to 2010 at least.• The number of UCAS applications and acceptances for Computing courses has fallen for the

last 6 years (2001 was the high point ; 2007 is the current low point). This will result in a fallin the annual number of students graduating until at least 2010.

• Long term change is only possible if a major initiative is launched to increase HigherEducation Computing student numbers.

• Higher Education qualifications are of fundamental importance to employment inthe IT labour market.

• In 2004, 54% of IT professionals had a degree, and 39% of IT professionals with a degreehad a Computing degree.

• The IT labour market is set to grow by 163,000 from 2007 to 2016 (from 1,069,000 up to1,232,000).

• Continuing demand for staff in the IT labour market across a wide range of roles is leadingto a net growth in the number employed

• The single largest area of growth will be amongst Software Professionals, a role for which ahigh degree of technical knowledge, capability and training is required.

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UCAS Undergraduate Applicants & Acceptances forComputing Courses 1996-2007(HESA: G5-G8[1996-2001], G4-G7[2001-207])

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4.27% 3.33% 2.12% 1.14%

9.12% 7.57%

20.60%

7.20%

13.26%

0.57%

7.23%

4.79%1.78%2.54%

2.70%

-4.63%-8.48%

-11.02%-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1998-99 1999-00 2000–01 2001–02 2002–03 2003–04 2004–05 2005–06 2006-07

Per

cent

age

chan

ge

All Subjects Computing

Year-on-year Change in HE Student Numbers (1998-99 to2006–07) sourced from HESA

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Year-on-year Change in HE Qualifications(1998-99 to 2006-07) - sourced from HESA

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IT and Telecom Professionals in the IT labour market by Occupation 2007–16

NUMBER OF PROFESSIONALS IT ROLES

2007 2016 E GROWTH IN POPULATION

2007-2016

Software Professionals 317,000 403,000 +86,000 ICT Managers 286,000 324,000 +38,000

IT Strategy & Planning 140,000 176,000 +36,000 IT Operations Technicians 125,000 134,000 +9,000

IT User Support 48,000 51,000 +3,000 Computer Engineers 37,000 35,000 -2,000

Others 116,000 109,000 -7,000 Total 1,069,000 1,232,000 +163,000

Percentage of degree-qualified IT Professionals with Computing Qualifications (2006)

IT ROLES % OF PROFESSIONALS WITH COMPUTING DEGREE

Software Professionals 46% IT Strategy/Planning Staff 44% Operation Technicians 38% ICT Managers 28% Total Workforce 39%

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• A substantial number of IT labour market appointments are made each year.• 179,800 appointments are made each year in the IT labour market, the majority (78.5%;

141,300) of which will go to “new entrants” (people who are not currently in the IT labourmarket).

• Of this annual requirement of 141,300, 26,800 will be joining direct from education. Over50% of this 26,800 will be expected to be Computing graduates.

• A decline in the number of Computing graduates will result in fewer “new entrants” fromHigher Education having the necessary deep-based technical skills.

• The worst skill gap in the IT labour market relates to technical skills.• 38% of IT Managers have a technical skill gap, as do 12% of Networking Staff, 10% of

Programmers, and 10% of PC Support Staff.• It is crucial to understand that technical staff and managers are the two areas where the largest

employment growth will take place over the coming years.• A technical skill gap amongst such people is a serious problem.• A major initiative/focus is needed to resolve this technical skill gap

• Other skill gaps exist, especially amongst IT Managers.• 23% of IT Managers have a business skills gap, 22% have an interpersonal skills gap, and 22%

have an “other” (undefined) skills gap.• By contrast, the level of business skills gap and interpersonal skills gap amongst other IT roles

is small (less than 10%).

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Skill Gap by IT Role - e-Skills 2008

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Current Position (April 2009):

Small increase in applicants in 2008, <3%, but in the context of a 10% growth inoverall applicants

Despite increase in applicants, there is a decrease in overall applications, whichsuggests fewer potential students considering Computing as an option, and this appearseven worse in initial figures (to 15th January) for 2009 from UCAS

Comparison with STEM subjects, including Mathematics, which is included in Gcode, shows Computing declining at comparatively greater rate

Computing has accepted a higher percentage of applicants, and maintained apresence in clearing, to maintain numbers, but is still in decline

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IT professionals in the UK workforce / UK Applicants to Computing degreesSource: e-skills UK analysis of ONS LFS and UCAS data. Post 2000 LFS data uses SOC 2000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

IT p

rofe

ssio

nals

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Com

putin

g A

pplic

ants

Total IT professionals

Total applicants to Computing degrees

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Applicants to Computer Science Courses - Domicile 1996-2008

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Source: e-skills analysis of UCAS data

1996-2001 Subject line G5-

G8 2002-2007 Subject line

G4-G7

Home

EU

Other overseas

Total

Home 14,166 16,105 18,403 21,856 24,016 27,177 22,702 19,852 15,357 14,708 13,532 12,970 13,514

EU 672 832 796 819 843 798 583 544 645 720 730 897 880

Other overseas 879 1,045 1,243 1,379 1,988 2,762 2,852 2,258 1,962 1,968 1,273 1,391 1,259

Total 15,717 17,982 20,442 24,054 26,847 30,737 26,137 22,654 17,964 17,396 15,535 15,258 15,653

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

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All Applicants to HE Courses - Selected Subject Groups 2002-2008Group G includes Computer Science

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: e-skills analysis of UCAS data

Group C Biological Sciences Group F Physical Sciences Group G Mathematical & Comp SciGroup H Engineering Group N Business & Admin studies Computer Science (G4-G7)

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– Applications continue to decline:• 2008 decline attributable to UCAS drop from 6 to 5 options• Small growth in applicants in 2008 still effectively a decline, since

relationship to all applicants is still dropping - from 6.77% of allapplicants in 2001 to 2.66% in 2008

• Latest UCAS figures for 2009 (to 15/1/9) show a drop from 68,298applications to Computing in 2008 to 56,958 in 2009 - down 16.6%

– Improved conversion of applications and continued use ofclearing has improved acceptance levels to well above applicantlevels

• Clearing has represented 17-21% of acceptances to Computingconsistently between 1996-2007

• Total acceptances has grown from 94% to 125% of applicants between1996-2007

– G4 Computer Science was the 5th most popular subject byacceptances in 2008, but is 15th by applications in 2009

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• Conclusions:– Decline is real and continuing, figures have now reversed

growth of 1996-2001 and are equivalent to mid-90s(Applications vs. Applicants issue needs investigation)

– IT job market is growing steadily, with a particular requirementfor technically-skilled staff, not significantly affected by creditcrunch.

– Employers are already having difficulty filling posts, especiallyfor experienced technical staff, this can only get worse:

• 225,000 staff with Computing degree in workforce currently• 42% of Computing graduates enter industry, good vocational rate but

currently only enough to cover churn, and declining at 8% per year until2010 at least

• Growth of 15% predicted by e-skills UK to 2016, with the sectorrebalancing to over 50% of that growth in high technical skills areas

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• Without significant intervention, HE cannot meet growth targets and wewill have a massive shortfall in technically-skilled personnel, estimated atwell over 50,000 by 2016, compromising our global competitiveness in thiskey world market (see DIUS briefing June 2008)

– Significant decline in HE funding threatens the ability ofComputing departments to maintain existing provision, far less togrow capability:

• Not treated as a STEM subject• Not eligible for SIVS funding• No ASNs from HEFCE, if numbers were to turn round

– Growth of partnerships with industry is an important wayforward, projects like RevitaliseIT offer way forward, butindustry also needs incentives, such as tax breaks, to invest ineducational opportunities, internships and graduate entryschemes.

– Credit crunch may allow us a small amount of breathing space!!

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• Next Actions:– Prepare new briefing for new Minister, David Lammy– Carry out more detailed analysis of effects of decline on

Computing departments, and consider postgraduatepicture, HESA data requested

– Provide input to all political parties on issues, tosupport development of manifesto commitments

– Liaise on responses to public consultations with BCSand UKCRC

– Provide information support to local CPHC groupings– Develop international presence (i.e. IFIP statement)

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Questions????

cphc information group report 2009 · ucl april 2009 •headlines from report: –at a time when...

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