cpi preview, poultry, bnga, btps, market recap, covid-19 ......bank cimb niaga: 10m20 results -...

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Latest 2020F

7-DRRR (%), eop 3.75 3.75

Inflation (YoY %) 1.44 2.00

US$ 1 = Rp, period avg 14,124 14,745

JCI Index 5,759.9 1.42%

Trading T/O ( Rp bn ) 12,417.3

Market Cap ( Rp tn ) 6,692.6

2020F 2021F

P/E (x) 22.4 16.4

P/BV (x) 2.3 2.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 15.0 12.8

Div. Yield (%) 2.9 2.3

Net Gearing (%) 25.0 22.5

ROE (%) 10.4 13.7

EPS Growth (%) -24.8 36.6

EBITDA Growth (%) -11.7 16.9

Earnings Yield (%) 4.5 6.1

* Aggregate of 74 companies in MS research universe,

representing 63.5%of JCI’s market capitalization

Economic Data

Stock Market Data (26 November 2020)

Market Data Summary*

• Nov-20 CPI Preview: Likely a Modest Inflation • Poultry: Consecutive Supply Adjustments since August • Bank CIMB Niaga: 10M20 Results - Margin Recovery in Oct-20 (BNGA; Rp875; Buy; TP:

Rp840) • BTPN Syariah: 10M20 Results - Sequential Improvement in Margin (BTPS; Rp4,270;

Buy; TP: Rp3,200) • Market Recap November 26th 2020; JCI 5,759.92 Points +80.67 pts (+1.42%); Valued

$882mn; Mkt Cap $448bn; USD/IDR 14,124 • Daily Covid-19 Update: Data as of 26 Nov’20 Nov-20 CPI Preview: Likely a Modest Inflation

A modest inflation. We estimate the Nov-20 CPI to record a 0.20% MoM inflation, resulting in a pickup on the annual figure to 1.52% YoY from 1.44% in Oct-20. On the core inflation, the figure is expected to be benign at 1.67% YoY (vs. 1.74% in Oct-20), partly owing to lower gold price. The Statistic Agency (BPS) is scheduled to deliver the data on Tuesday (01/12).

Inside the CPI basket. The food price contribution to total inflation may have increased to 0.20 ppt from 0.07 in the corresponding period. Chicken price seems to be the main driver (0.10 ppt) due to the government’s continuous culling program since Aug-20. Meanwhile, we do not see potential pressure from other components; in fact, gold jewelry price declined this month (-0.02 ppt).

Closing the year on a low note. All in all, we estimate the inflation will close the year with a low note at 0.3–0.4% MoM in Dec-20, resulting in an annual figure of 1.4–1.6% in YE2020. The seasonal transportation inflation seems to be lower than usual, as people’s mobility will be limited. Moreover, the government plans to reduce the year-end holiday period (from currently 11 days) to prevent rising COVID-19 cases. Meanwhile, food prices will be manageable amid the La Nina condition, in our opinion. Inflation is expected to pick up next year, following the economic recovery and the withdrawal of excess liquidity from BI’s OMO instrument, which has reached Rp778tn as of the 3rd week of November (vs. Rp335tn on average).

HIGHLIGHT

Equity Research | 27 November 2020 INVESTOR DIGEST

ECONOMY


Equity Research | 27 November 2020


INFLATION SUMMARY Sep-20

MS Forecast Market Consensus

Headline inflation (%, YoY) 1.44 1.52 1.50

Headline inflation (%, MoM) 0.07 0.20 0.18

Core inflation (%, YoY) 1.74 1.67 N/A

Oct-20

Sources: CEIC, Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas estimate

FOOD PRICE OBSERVATION IN NOV-20

% MoM Contribution (ppt)

Rice -0.02 (0.00)Broiler chicken meat 9.07 0.10Beef 0.13 0.00Broiler chicken egg 4.74 0.03Red onion 13.54 0.04Garlic 5.82 0.01Red chili 0.10 (0.01)Chili pepper (Rawit) 7.39 0.01Cooking oil 1.04 0.01Sugar 0.29 0.00Total Foodstufs 0.20

Nov-20Commodity

Source: National Strategic Food Information Center (PIHPS), Mandiri Sekuritas estimate (as of 25-Nov-20)

Leo Rinaldy(+6221 5296 9406) [email protected] Imanuel Reinaldo(+6221 5296 9651) [email protected]

Poultry: Consecutive Supply Adjustments since August

The Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) has announced the ninth culling period for this year and the fifth consecutive supply adjustment since the end of August. Based on the disclosure of supply-demand projection and the completion of the Aug-Nov culling realization, the MoA took two new measures to sustain the current prices and curb the oversupply condition. Maintain Overweight, with JPFA as the most preferred.

The fifth consecutive culling regulation. The MoA via Circular Letter no. 26045/PK.230/F/11/2020 has announced the ninth culling in 2020 or the fifth consecutive supply adjustment since the end of August. Similar to the previous regulation, the MoA published its base for supply reduction for December using supply production estimate and demand projection. For December, the government estimated broiler demand and supply at 209.8mn and 304.8mn, or an oversupply of 45.3%. As a result, the MoA has enacted two new culling measures as follows:

− Culling of 19-day DOC FS HE by 12.3mn/week from 28-Nov to 31-Dec

− Early culling of PS with age of >50 weeks by 4mn birds nationally from 28-Nov to 31-Dec. The cutting of PS with age of >60 weeks will continue until the end of this year.

SECTOR




Price has recovered to a profitable level. Broiler prices in Java/ex-Java have recovered to Rp20.3k/Rp23k per kg or +25%/+11% MoM. DOC price also rebounded to Rp7k/chick or +19% MoM. We see that the continuous culling regulations, the completion of Aug-Nov culling regulations, and the gradual demand recovery helped improve prices. Note, the MoA projected a 42% MoM increase of DOC FS demand in December. Considering the 7- to 8-week lag for 19-day FS HE and the 9- to 12-week lag for PS, we expect prices to be more stable until mid-Feb-20.

Feeble local corn price should be able to offset soaring soybean meal prices. Soybean meal (SBM) prices have rallied by 33% YoY as a result of a production decline in major soybean-producing areas due to dry weather. Local corn price, however, has declined by 10% YoY as a result of a successful corn harvest in 1Q20-3Q20 and lower demand from smaller feed millers. Volume-wise, corn accounts for 55% of feed composition, while SBM only accounts for 20%. We believe our covered poultry integrators should be able to maintain their margins in 4Q20 and 1Q21, given the recovery of broiler and DOC prices.

Key action. We retain our positive view and maintain the Overweight rating for the sector. The government’s assistance on top of relaxation on social mobility restriction across Indonesia and end-of-year high poultry demand seasonality should further support price and volume recovery onward. We have Buy ratings for all three names, with JPFA as the most preferred, given its enticing valuation. JPFA is currently trading at 9.3x 2021 PE based on our number or 6% discount to 3Y mean. Key risk: soaring new COVID-19 cases that might result in another strict social mobility restriction.

SEPTEMBER – NOVEMBER CULLING REGULATIONS Date Cull target Population target Commencement date Total culling (mn birds) 09-Sep-20 Internal live bird absorption

19,8 09-Sep-20 Buyback program 23.2mn/week Sep-20 97,4 09-Sep-20 FS HE 19 days in Java 7mn Completion of Aug-20 regulation 4,6 09-Sep-20 FS HE 19 days nationwide 6.4mn/week 9 - 30 Sep'20 19,2 09-Sep-20 CSR FS HE 7.5mn/week

30,0

09-Sep-20 PS > 50 weeks 1mn Sep-20 1,3 18-Sep-20 CSR FS HE 36mn/week 20 Sep - 17 Oct'20 143,9 18-Sep-20 FS HE 19 days 16.5mn/week 19 Sep - 20 Oct'20 65,9 18-Sep-20 Buyback program

Sep-20 15,1

18-Sep-20 PS > 50 weeks in Java 2.2mn 19 - 26 Sep'20 2,9 18-Sep-20 PS > 50 weeks in ex-Java 1mn 19 - 26 Sep'20 1,3 19-Oct-20 FS HE 19 days 12.1mn/week 19 Oct - 21 Nov'20 60,5 19-Oct-20 FS HE 19 days Completion of Aug to Oct regulation 13,3 19-Oct-20 Buyback program Completion of Aug to Oct regulation 28,4 19-Oct-20 PS > 50 weeks in Java Completion of Oct regulation 1,2 19-Oct-20 PS > 50 weeks in ex-Java Completion of Oct regulation 0,3 26-Nov-20 FS HE 19 days 12.3mn/week 26 Nov - 31 Dec'20 61,3 26-Nov-20 PS > 50 weeks 4mn 26 Nov - 31 Dec'20 4,0 Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates

Riyanto Hartanto (+6221 5296 9488) [email protected] Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected]

Bank CIMB Niaga: 10M20 Results - Margin Recovery in Oct-20 (BNGA; Rp875; Buy; TP: Rp840)

BNGA’s bank-only net income stood at Rp1.8tn in 10M20, -38% yoy, accounting for 73% of FY20 consensus and 76% of Mansek’s FY20 numbers. Estimated consolidated net income stood at Rp1.9tn, 78%/82% of consensus/ours. PPOP stayed in the positive territory at +2%yoy, mainly backed by declining opex growth that compensated the weak margin. Meanwhile, provision expenses increased +54%yoy, leading to operating income growth of -35%yoy. Oct-20’s net income was at Rp61bn, a recovery from net loss of Rp103bn in Sep-20, driven by improvement in margin and stable opex.

CORPORATE




Loan growth -7% yoy/-2% mom, deposit growth at +10% yoy/+2% mom in Oct-20. Deposit growth was supported by demand deposits at +40%yoy, saving deposits at +31%yoy, while time deposit contracted by -14% yoy, resulted in a solid improvement in CASA ratio to 60% in Oct-20 from 49% in Oct-19. Meanwhile, LDR declined to 81% from 96% in the same period.

NIM declined to 4.7% in 10M20 from 5.1% in 10M19 on faster reduction in asset yield than in CoF. Oct-20’s NIM improved to 4.7% in Oct-20 from 4.5% primarily driven by improvement in asset yield.

Cost to income ratio declined to 49% in 10M20 from 54% in 10M19

Provision expenses increased +54%yoy to Rp4.2tn in 10M20. We estimate the bank wrote-off Rp2.6tn of bad debt in 10M20 vs. Rp2.8tn in 10M19. Cost of credit jumped to 2.9% in 10M20 from 1.7% in 10M19 while on the monthly basis, cost of credit also rose to 4.4% in Oct-20 from 3.4% in Sep-20. Provisioning level increased to 6.7% in Oct-20 from 6.3% in Sep-20. BNGA guides FY20 cost of credit to be at 2.8%.

Numbers under review. The stock is trading at 0.5x 2020F P/BV. Income Statement (Rp bn) Oct-19 Sep-20 Oct-20 % MoM % YoY 10M19 10M20 % YoY FY20F

% of FY20F

FY20 Cons

% of FY20F

Cons Net interest income 975 985 1,045 6 7 10,093 9,945 (1) 12,492 80

Non-interest income 440 232 312 35 (29) 4,097 3,247 (21) 5,225 62

Operating income 1,414 1,217 1,357 11 (4) 14,190 13,192 (7) 17,717 74 17,067 77

Provision expenses (271) (504) (637) 26 135 (2,724) (4,187) 54 (5,434) 77

Operating expenses (728) (634) (634) (0) (13) (7,592) (6,478) (15) (9,257) 70

Operating profit 415 79 86 9 (79) 3,874 2,527 (35) 3,026 83 3,303 76

PPOP 687 583 723 24 5 6,598 6,714 2 8,460 79

Pre-tax profit 417 81 85 5 (80) 3,902 2,530 (35) 3,076 82 3,326 76

Net profit 305 (103) 61 n.a (80) 2,862 1,788 (38) 2,340 76 2,459 73

Balance Sheet (Rp bn) Oct-19 Sep-20 Oct-20 % MoM % YoY

Gross loan 187,484 177,812 174,051 (2) (7) Demand deposits 44,986 62,360 63,166 1 40

Saving deposits 50,566 65,828 66,056 0 31

Time deposits 100,838 84,083 87,116 4 (14)

Total deposits 196,390 212,271 216,339 2 10

CASA to deposits (%) 48.7 60.4 59.7

Ratio (%) Oct-19 Sep-20 Oct-20

10M19 10M20

LDR 95.5 83.8 80.5

95.5 80.5

NIM 5.0 4.5 4.7

5.1 4.7

ROE 8.8 (3.1) 1.9

8.5 5.5

Cost to income 51.5 52.1 46.7

53.5 49.1

Cost of credit - net 1.7 3.4 4.4

1.7 2.9

Provisioning level 3.0 6.3 6.7

3.0 6.7

Silvony Gathrie (+6221 5296 9544) [email protected] Tjandra Lienandjaja (+6221 5296 9617) [email protected]




BTPN Syariah: 10M20 Results - Sequential Improvement in Margin (BTPS; Rp4,270; Buy; TP: Rp3,200)

BTPS posted net income of Rp614bn in 10M20, -45%yoy, accounting for 63%/52% of consensus/Mansek’s FY20 estimates. PPOP declined -7%yoy mainly over weak top-line growth. Meanwhile, operating profit declined -46% yoy as a result of rising provision charges by +228%yoy. Oct-20’s net income was at Rp107bn, +13% mom/-19% yoy, supported by stable opex and improvement in NII.

Loan growth +5%yoy/+3% mom, deposit growth +2%yoy/+4% mom. Demand deposits grew the highest at +7% yoy, followed by time deposits +3% yoy and saving deposits at +1% yoy. This resulted in stable CASA ratio of 21%, while LDR increased to 98% in Oct-20 vs. 96% in Oct-19.

NIM declined to 24.5% in 10M20 from 31.9% in 10M19 on lower asset yield, while on the monthly basis, BTPS demonstrated a sequential NIM improvement to 26.5% from 25.1% in Sep-20 and 21.0% in Jun-20, mostly from recovery in asset yield, since some of the borrowers have started paying again after the large scale social distancing has been lifted.

Cost to income ratio declined to 44% from 46% in 10M19.

Provision expenses increased +228%yoy to Rp814bn. We estimate BTPS to have written off Rp258bn in 10M20 vs. Rp186bn in 10M19. Cost of credit increased to 10.4% in 10M20 from 3.3% in 10M19, while Oct-20’s cost of credit was at 5.8% vs. 4.9% in Sep-20. BTPS guides FY20 cost of credit to be at around 9%. Provisioning level declined to 9.0% from 9.3% in Sep-20.

Numbers under review. BTPS is now trading at 5.2x 2020F P/BV. Income Statement (Rp bn)

Oct-19 Sep-20 Oct-20 % MoM % YoY 10M19 10M20 % YoY FY20F % of FY20F

FY20 Cons

% of FY20F

Cons Net interest income 362 298 321 8 (11) 3,205 2,874 (10) 3,946 73

Non-interest income 1 1 1 11 29 15 19 23 19 101

Operating income 363 299 323 8 (11) 3,221 2,893 (10) 3,965 73 3,772 77

Provision expenses (29) (37) (45) 22 56 (248) (814) 228 (421) 193

Operating expenses (151) (140) (140) (0) (7) (1,479) (1,269) (14) (1,993) 64

Operating profit 183 122 137 13 (25) 1,493 811 (46) 1,551 52 1,398 58

PPOP 213 159 183 15 (14) 1,741 1,624 (7) 1,973 82

Pre-tax profit 180 123 137 12 (24) 1,488 815 (45) 1,548 53 1,282 64

Net profit 133 95 107 13 (19) 1,110 614 (45) 1,189 52 975 63

Balance Sheet (Rp bn) Oct-19 Sep-20 Oct-20 % MoM % YoY

Gross loan 8,989 9,104 9,405 3 5

Demand deposits 25 25 26 5 7

Saving deposits 1,919 1,952 1,939 (1) 1

Time deposits 7,411 7,267 7,616 5 3

Total deposits 9,355 9,245 9,582 4 2

CASA to deposits (%) 20.8 21.4 20.5

Ratio (%) Oct-19 Sep-20 Oct-20

10M19 10M20

LDR 96.1 98.5 98.2

96.1 98.2

NIM 32.5 25.1 26.5

31.9 24.5

ROE 31.9 20.8 23.0

29.5 13.3

Cost to income 41.5 46.8 43.4

45.9 43.9

Cost of credit - net 3.9 4.9 5.8

3.3 10.4

Provisioning level 3.1 9.3 9.0

3.1 9.0

Silvony Gathrie (+6221 5296 9544) [email protected] Tjandra Lienandjaja (+6221 5296 9617) [email protected]




Market Recap November 26th 2020; JCI 5,759.92 Points +80.67 pts (+1.42%); Valued $882mn; Mkt Cap $448bn; USD/IDR 14,124

TOP TURNOVER: TLKM BBRI ASII BMRI BBNI BBCA TKIM MNCN TOWR DOID PTBA HMSP MDKA MEDC UNTR ADRO ANTM (48%)

ADVANCING SECTOR: construction+3.3%; telco+3.0%; mining+2.0%; property+1.6%; auto+1.1%; consumer+0.9%; financial & cement+0.8%

DECLINING SECTOR: plantation-0.1%

Indo shares advanced, with the JCI recovering 1.4% to 5760 level, as markets’ euphoric mood over COVID-19 vaccines and the prospects of more political predictability and economic stimulus under the incoming Biden administration overrode a slate of weak US economic data. Trading activities continued to revolve around the sharia list: ASII+1.8% BSDE+0.96% JSMR+1.39% which all removed. While coal miners led by DOID+14% jumped after Fitch’s improving assessment of Indonesian coal miners’ earnings outlook. TLKM contributed the most to overall market gain, increasing 5.8%, after TLKM’s VC arm MDI Ventures and Finch aim to create a jv to raise $40MN and invest in regional startups emerging from COVID-19 pandemic. MDI and Finch hope to fill a void in funding during the pandemic where funding for the region’s startups slid 13% to $5.6BN in 1H20, according to Centro Ventures. MDI ventures is the VC arm of Indonesia-listed TLKM, the country’s largest telecom carrier. Market turnover (excluding $8MN BHAT; $3.6MN ULTJ; $2.7MN BACA crossing) stayed strong at $882MN. Foreign participants rose slightly to 20% and came up better buyer for 21%. Gainers beat losers by 2 to 1. The IDR strengthened at 14124 level along with sovereign bonds as inflows into local debt offer support. The 10-year govt bond yield fell 2bps to 6.17%, declining for a third day. Global funds bought a net $78.3MN of Indonesian bonds on Nov 24th, a fourth day of inflows; and bought a net $40.9MN of the nation’s equities on Nov 25th.

Sales Team +6221 527 5375

Bank BTN (BBTN) partners up with Industrial Estate Association (HKI) The bank states that it provides a number of lending services i.e. construction loans, land loans, working capital loans and investment loans especially for entrepreneur in the real estate area. The bank also offers other banking services such as supply chain financing, bank guarantee and BTN Solusi. (Investor Daily)

LinkAja might go public in the next 1-1.5 years LinkAja, JV of Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) along with several SOEs, might go public in the next 1-1.5 years, according to CEO of Telkomsel, Setyanto Hartanto. He stated that there is a plan to bring LinkAja IPO but the timeline has not decided. (Bisnis) MDI Ventures launched Arise Fund with Finch Capital MDI Ventures, investment arm of Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ), launch Arise fund with Finch Capital, VC from Netherland. Arise fund will have USD40mn to invest in pre-Series A stages and will put more focus in Asia regions. Arise fund also will provide technical assistance for the startups on top of capital injection. (Investor Daily)

Moody’s reaffirmed Baa3 rating and stable outlook of XL Axiata Moddy’s, credit rating agency, reaffirmed Baa3 rating and stable outlook of XL Axiata (EXCL IJ). This rating was derived as Moody’s believes the company could defend its position and financial performance in the next 12-18 months. (Bisnis) Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP) has got Rp17.42tn new contracts in 11M20 This achievement translated to 68% achievement to the company’s FY20 target, while still down by 37% YoY. The recent contracts was coming from Smelter Feronickel Kolaka of Rp3.2tn, additional works from RDMP Balikpapan of Rp1.8tn, SPAM Pekanbaru-Kampar of Rp1.26tn, and Bogor Heritage Apartment of Rp1.2tn.(kontan)

MARKET

FROM THE PRESS




Daily Covid-19 Update: Data as of 26 Nov’20

Testing: Daily specimens tested rose to 52k yesterday. Daily case tested declined to 38k yesterday. Jakarta testing has returned to normal level.

New cases: Indo recorded new cases of 4,917 cases yesterday.

Infection rate: Daily national infection was stable at 13% yesterday (vs. 3DMA 15%/7DMA 14%). Jakarta daily infection rate was 10% yesterday (vs. 3DMA 10%/7DMA 9%) after revision in historical testing numbers.

Epicenters: Jakarta (+1,064); West Java (+776); Central Java (+559). Based on our observation, long weekend impact was only apparent in all Java regions as seen with rising infection and bed occupancy. No notable impact outside Java, with relatively low hospital bed occupancy.

COVID-19 INDONESIA




Inggrid Gondoprastowo (+6221 5296 9450) [email protected] Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected]




Indices and Fund Flows Currencies and Bonds Major Commodities

Indices Last Chg (%) YTD Chg

(%) Currency Last Chg (%)

YTD Chg (%)

Last Chg (%) YTD

Chg (%)

JCI 5,759.9 +1.4 -8.6 Rp/US$ 14,100 -0.31 -1.8 Crude Oil, WTI (US$/bl) 45.71 +1.8 -25.1

Dow Jones 29,872.5 -0.6 +4.7 US$/EUR 1.191 -0.03 -5.9 Copper (US$/mt) 7,283 +0.1 +18.4

Nikkei 26,537.3 +0.9 +12.2 YEN/US$ 104.26 -0.19 +4.2 Nickel (US$/mt) 16,010 -1.2 +14.8

Hang Seng 26,819.5 +0.6 -4.9 SGD/US$ 1.339 -0.10 +0.5 Gold (US$/oz) 1,816 +0.5 +19.7

STI 2,857.5 -0.4 -11.3 Tin 3-month (US$/mt) 18,736 +0.2 +9.1 Ishares indo 22.3 -0.7 -13.1 CPO futures (Ringgit/ton) 3,227 -1.8 +6.5 Coal (US$/ton) 63.9 +0.2 -5.7 Foreign Fund Flows (US$mn)

Last Chg YTD Chg

Gov. Bond Yield

Last Chg

(bps)

YTD Chg

(bps) Rubber forward (US¢/kg) 246.7 +0.7 +48.3

Equity Flow +42.5 -2,634 5Yr 5.09 -5 -135 Soybean oil (US$/100gallons)

38.18 +0.3 +10.7

Bonds Flow -2.7 -5,096 10Yr 6.17 -1 -89 Baltic Dry Index 1,197.0 +2.0 +9.8




Equity Valuation Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield

Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021

MANSEK universe 5,760 5,540 -3.8 4,250,085 189,387 258,781 22.4 16.4 2.3 2.2 15.0 12.8 -24.8% 36.6% 2.9% 2.3%

Banking 1,669,415 66,939 102,916 24.9 16.2 2.4 2.2 N.A. N.A. -30.4% 53.7% 2.4% 1.5%

BBCA Neutral 32,400 35,000 8.0 798,822 26,722 32,541 29.9 24.5 4.4 4.0 N.A. N.A. -6.5% 21.8% 1.7% 1.6%

BBNI Buy 6,300 5,900 (6.3) 117,487 7,073 15,323 16.6 7.7 1.1 1.0 N.A. N.A. -54.0% 116.6% 3.3% 1.5%

BBRI Neutral 4,290 4,000 (6.8) 528,951 19,246 33,603 27.5 15.7 2.7 2.4 N.A. N.A. -44.0% 74.6% 3.2% 1.1%

BBTN Buy 1,750 1,900 8.6 18,533 1,510 2,120 12.3 8.7 1.0 0.9 N.A. N.A. 621.6% 40.4% 3.0% 1.6%

BDMN Buy 3,130 4,000 27.8 30,000 2,703 4,752 11.1 6.3 0.7 0.6 N.A. N.A. -33.6% 75.8% 4.8% 3.2%

BJBR Buy 1,420 860 (39.4) 13,971 1,260 1,438 11.1 9.7 1.3 1.2 N.A. N.A. -19.2% 14.1% 6.6% 6.6%

BJTM Buy 670 590 (11.9) 10,052 1,146 1,434 8.8 7.0 1.0 1.0 N.A. N.A. -16.8% 25.2% 7.2% 7.2%

BNGA Buy 875 840 (4.0) 21,990 2,340 4,211 9.4 5.2 0.5 0.5 N.A. N.A. -35.8% 80.0% 6.6% 4.3%

BNLI Sell 2,270 430 (81.1) 63,657 909 1,494 70.0 42.6 2.6 2.5 N.A. N.A. -39.4% 64.4% 0.0% 0.0%

PNBN Buy 1,010 1,100 8.9 24,329 1,976 3,508 12.3 6.9 0.6 0.6 N.A. N.A. -40.4% 77.5% 0.0% 0.0%

BTPS Buy 4,270 3,200 (25.1) 32,895 1,189 1,547 27.7 21.3 5.2 4.3 N.A. N.A. -15.1% 30.1% 0.9% 0.7%

BFIN Buy 400 475 18.8 5,986 781 841 7.7 7.1 0.9 0.8 N.A. N.A. 9.7% 7.7% 3.0% 3.9%

AMOR Buy 2,600 2,500 (3.8) 2,744 80 88 34.5 32.7 9.6 10.0 25.7 27.4 -12.9% 5.6% 3.2% 2.9%

Construction & materials 206,679 3,363 7,827 61.5 26.4 1.6 1.5 16.7 12.1 -73.2% 132.8% 1.4% 0.8%

INTP Buy 14,900 14,500 (2.7) 54,850 1,673 2,003 32.8 27.4 2.3 2.1 15.3 13.5 -8.9% 19.8% 1.2% 1.1%

SMGR Buy 11,925 11,020 (7.6) 70,733 2,520 2,825 28.1 25.0 2.1 2.0 10.9 10.2 5.4% 12.1% 1.7% 1.4%

ADHI Buy 1,120 810 (27.7) 3,988 105 361 37.9 11.1 0.7 0.7 9.9 7.6 -84.2% 243.0% 3.3% 0.5%

PTPP Buy 1,320 1,370 3.8 8,184 219 754 37.4 10.9 0.7 0.6 11.1 7.3 -76.5% 244.3% 3.4% 0.8%

WIKA Buy 1,585 1,680 6.0 14,202 561 1,159 25.3 12.3 1.0 0.9 9.4 7.2 -75.4% 106.5% 0.8% 1.6%

WSKT Buy 1,055 1,230 16.6 14,117 -2,141 -1,501 -6.6 -9.4 1.4 1.6 37.4 23.1 N/M 29.9% -3.0% -2.1%

WTON Buy 352 500 42.0 3,068 285 438 10.8 7.0 0.9 0.8 4.7 3.4 -44.4% 53.7% 5.0% 2.8%

WSBP Buy 218 195 (10.6) 5,747 -115 83 -49.8 69.3 0.8 0.8 21.3 15.1 N/M N/M 7.0% 0.0%

JSMR Buy 4,380 5,690 29.9 31,789 256 1,707 124.0 18.6 1.7 1.6 25.4 12.7 -88.4% 566.0% 1.4% 0.2%

Consumer staples 915,958 41,277 51,577 22.2 17.8 4.8 4.3 14.3 11.7 -14.8% 25.0% 3.8% 3.3%

ICBP Buy 10,125 12,050 19.0 118,077 5,977 6,319 19.8 18.7 4.1 3.7 11.6 11.3 18.6% 5.7% 2.1% 2.5%

INDF Buy 7,225 9,950 37.7 63,435 5,919 6,307 10.7 10.1 1.5 1.4 6.6 6.2 20.6% 6.5% 3.8% 4.6%

MYOR Buy 2,470 2,600 5.3 55,227 2,413 2,190 22.9 25.2 4.9 4.4 15.6 14.4 21.4% -9.2% 1.4% 1.7%

UNVR Buy 7,750 9,700 25.2 295,663 7,420 8,138 39.8 36.3 59.1 54.9 28.0 25.7 0.3% 9.7% 2.5% 2.5%

GGRM Buy 44,400 63,450 42.9 85,430 7,422 10,321 11.5 8.3 1.6 1.5 7.6 6.0 -31.8% 39.1% 5.9% 5.9%

HMSP Buy 1,585 2,400 51.4 184,364 8,342 13,384 22.1 13.8 6.0 5.2 17.0 10.1 -39.2% 60.4% 7.3% 4.5%

KLBF Buy 1,490 1,900 27.5 69,844 2,731 2,842 25.6 24.6 4.0 3.7 17.4 16.4 9.0% 4.1% 1.9% 2.0%

SIDO Buy 795 980 23.3 23,850 912 1,011 26.1 23.6 7.4 7.1 19.6 17.6 12.9% 10.9% 3.2% 3.7%

MLBI Buy 9,525 13,250 39.1 20,069 141 1,063 142.8 18.9 52.6 15.4 34.9 12.1 -88.3% 656.9% 4.5% 0.7%

Healthcare 56,752 842 1,080 67.4 52.5 4.4 4.1 23.7 19.1 30.2% 28.3% 0.1% 0.1%

MIKA Buy 2,590 2,750 6.2 37,686 547 659 68.9 57.2 8.3 7.6 45.5 36.6 -25.1% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0%

SILO Buy 5,000 5,950 19.0 8,125 -44 22 -184.7 365.8 1.4 1.4 11.1 8.7 87.0% N/M 0.0% 0.0%

HEAL Buy 3,680 4,000 8.7 10,941 339 400 32.2 27.4 4.5 3.9 13.8 11.4 32.9% 17.8% 0.3% 0.4%

Consumer discretionary 332,989 21,000 25,795 15.9 12.9 1.7 1.5 11.1 8.8 -29.8% 22.8% 3.8% 3.0%

ACES Neutral 1,695 1,500 (11.5) 29,069 711 1,055 40.9 27.5 5.9 5.2 31.6 22.4 -31.0% 48.5% 1.8% 1.2%

LPPF Buy 1,295 1,800 39.0 3,779 50 497 74.9 7.6 2.1 1.7 6.2 2.4 -96.3% 884.6% 0.0% 0.4%

MAPA Buy 2,610 3,850 47.5 7,440 54 606 136.6 12.3 2.4 2.0 19.2 6.5 -92.1% 1013.2% 0.0% 0.2%

MAPI Buy 870 1,000 14.9 14,442 -1,704 543 -8.5 26.6 3.4 3.0 -135.1 8.5 N/M N/M 1.5% 0.0%

RALS Buy 785 700 (10.8) 5,570 -132 143 -42.2 39.0 1.6 1.5 -77.3 17.0 N/M N/M 6.9% -1.5%

ERAA Buy 1,805 2,000 10.8 5,758 268 436 21.5 13.2 1.1 1.1 10.6 9.0 -9.3% 63.0% 0.9% 1.5%

ASII Buy 5,650 6,300 11.5 228,732 17,763 18,098 12.9 12.6 1.5 1.4 10.7 9.1 -18.2% 1.9% 4.3% 3.5%

SCMA Buy 1,545 1,800 16.5 22,754 1,566 1,693 14.5 13.4 3.9 3.5 10.1 9.7 35.7% 8.1% 4.8% 5.2%

MNCN Buy 1,060 2,200 107.5 13,148 2,427 2,593 5.4 5.1 1.0 0.8 3.9 3.4 24.1% 6.8% 2.8% 3.0%

PZZA Buy 760 750 (1.3) 2,297 -2 130 -1,113.1 17.7 1.9 1.7 12.6 6.7 N/M N/M 4.4% 0.0%

Commodities 312,932 21,057 25,415 14.8 12.3 1.3 1.3 5.5 4.8 -13.3% 20.7% 2.7% 3.0%

UNTR Buy 24,500 31,700 29.4 91,388 7,172 10,603 12.7 8.6 1.4 1.3 5.1 3.8 -36.6% 47.8% 2.4% 3.5%

ADRO* Neutral 1,360 1,350 (0.7) 43,501 372 353 8.2 8.7 0.8 0.7 3.4 3.2 -7.9% -5.2% 4.3% 4.0%

HRUM* Neutral 2,290 1,300 (43.2) 5,878 17 14 23.6 30.4 1.3 1.3 6.1 6.8 -5.9% -21.7% 2.3% 1.8%

INDY* Neutral 1,485 910 (38.7) 7,737 2 6 328.2 85.5 0.6 0.6 2.1 1.7 N/M 286.9% 0.1% 0.3%




Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield

Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021

ITMG* Neutral 11,500 10,450 (9.1) 12,610 100 101 8.8 8.8 1.0 1.0 3.2 3.1 -20.8% 0.9% 9.7% 9.7%

PTBA Neutral 2,360 2,350 (0.4) 27,193 3,482 3,496 7.8 7.7 1.5 1.4 4.9 4.8 -18.3% 0.4% 9.6% 9.6%

ANTM Buy 1,210 1,300 7.4 29,077 1,107 1,320 26.3 22.0 1.3 1.3 10.8 10.1 470.9% 19.3% 1.3% 1.6%

INCO* Neutral 4,630 4,000 (13.6) 46,005 103 106 31.4 30.5 1.6 1.5 9.9 9.5 78.6% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%

TINS Neutral 1,095 800 (27.0) 8,155 -111 357 -73.4 22.9 1.5 1.4 19.5 10.7 81.8% N/M -0.5% 1.5%

MDKA* Buy 1,890 2,100 11.1 41,386 64 99 45.2 29.4 5.2 4.4 14.3 11.0 -11.8% 55.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Property & Industrial Estate 116,214 5,762 8,760 20.2 13.3 0.9 0.9 11.9 10.4 -28.9% 52.0% 2.1% 1.5%

ASRI Buy 234 210 (10.3) 4,598 42 683 110.1 6.7 0.4 0.4 11.2 8.2 -95.9% 1534.2% 0.9% 0.9%

BSDE Buy 1,055 1,160 10.0 22,336 1,399 2,050 16.0 10.9 0.7 0.7 11.9 11.1 -54.4% 46.5% 0.0% 0.4%

CTRA Buy 975 1,120 14.9 18,096 832 1,094 21.8 16.5 1.1 1.1 12.8 11.0 -28.2% 31.5% 0.8% 0.7%

JRPT Buy 500 670 34.0 6,875 997 1,065 6.9 6.5 0.9 0.8 6.1 5.5 -1.9% 6.7% 3.8% 0.1%

PWON Buy 525 700 33.3 25,284 1,007 1,764 25.1 14.3 1.6 1.5 14.7 10.3 -63.0% 75.2% 1.1% 1.1%

SMRA Buy 855 960 12.3 12,335 420 604 29.4 20.4 1.6 1.5 12.0 10.8 -18.5% 43.8% 0.6% 0.6%

LPKR Neutral 166 200 20.5 11,718 74 391 158.7 30.0 0.4 0.4 11.3 11.4 N/M 429.7% 0.6% 0.6%

DMAS Buy 272 300 10.3 13,110 885 988 14.8 13.3 2.2 2.3 14.3 12.9 -33.7% 11.7% 11.8% 7.7%

BEST Neutral 193 130 (32.6) 1,862 107 122 17.5 15.3 0.4 0.4 7.7 11.0 -72.0% 14.2% 1.8% 0.5%

Telecom 475,544 24,823 26,452 19.2 18.0 3.0 2.9 6.4 6.0 -0.7% 6.6% 3.8% 4.0%

EXCL Buy 2,540 3,600 41.7 27,050 2,186 1,340 12.4 20.2 1.3 1.2 4.7 4.4 207.9% -38.7% 0.8% 0.7%

TLKM Buy 3,470 3,900 12.4 343,746 19,403 21,026 17.7 16.3 3.3 3.2 6.2 5.9 4.0% 8.4% 4.5% 4.9%

ISAT Buy 2,330 3,200 37.3 12,661 -1,046 -648 -12.1 -19.5 1.1 1.1 4.3 3.8 N/M 38.1% 0.0% 0.0%

LINK Buy 2,570 3,300 28.4 7,292 736 744 9.9 9.8 1.5 1.4 4.2 4.2 -17.8% 1.1% 6.1% 5.1%

TBIG Buy 1,425 1,400 (1.8) 30,824 1,068 1,264 28.9 24.4 5.6 5.0 12.6 11.7 30.4% 18.3% 1.9% 1.9%

TOWR Buy 1,075 1,300 20.9 53,971 2,476 2,725 21.8 19.8 5.4 4.7 11.9 11.1 5.7% 10.1% 2.2% 2.2%

Transportation 3,040 -175 251 -17.4 12.1 0.6 0.6 12.8 5.0 -155.7% N/M -1.4% 2.1%

BIRD Buy 1,215 1,700 39.9 3,040 -175 251 -17.4 12.1 0.6 0.6 12.8 5.0 N/M N/M -1.4% 2.1%

Poultry 125,898 2,988 5,574 42.1 22.6 3.5 3.2 18.7 12.6 -46.2% 86.5% 1.2% 1.0%

CPIN Buy 6,625 6,950 4.9 108,637 2,775 3,728 39.1 29.1 4.8 4.3 22.4 18.2 -23.6% 34.3% 1.2% 1.1%

JPFA 1,700 15,772 344 1,696 45.8 9.3 1.4 1.3 11.2 5.9 -80.5% 392.5% 1.5% 0.7%

MAIN Buy 665 700 5.3 1,489 -131 150 -11.3 9.9 0.8 0.7 13.3 4.8 N/M N/M 0.0% 0.0%

Oil and Gas 34,665 1,511 3,133 22.9 11.1 0.9 0.9 7.4 5.9 61.2% 107.4% 1.7% 3.6%

PGAS* Buy 1,430 1,700 18.9 34,665 106 221 22.9 11.1 0.9 0.9 7.4 5.9 56.4% 109.1% 1.7% 3.6%

Note: - *) net profit in USD mn - U/R means Under Review - n/a means Not Available - N/M means Not Meaningful - N.A means Not Applicable


Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Menara Mandiri Tower I, 25th floor, Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 54 – 55, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5374 (Equity Sales)

Adrian Joezer Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Consumer [email protected] +6221 5296 9415 Tjandra Lienandjaja Deputy Head of Equity Research, Banking [email protected] +6221 5296 9617 Ariyanto Kurniawan Automotive, Coal, Metal Mining, Chemical [email protected] +6221 5296 9682 Kresna Hutabarat Telecom, Media [email protected] +6221 5296 9542 Lakshmi Rowter Healthcare, Consumer, Retail [email protected] +6221 5296 9549 Robin Sutanto Property, Building Material [email protected] +6221 5296 9572 Edbert Surya Construction, Transportation [email protected] +6221 5296 9623 Silvony Gathrie Banking [email protected] +6221 5296 9544 Inggrid Gondoprastowo Healthcare, Consumer, Retail [email protected] +6221 5296 9450 Riyanto Hartanto Poultry, Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9488 Henry Tedja Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9434 Wesley Louis Alianto Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9510 Leo Putera Rinaldy Chief Economist [email protected] +6221 5296 9406 Imanuel Reinaldo Economist [email protected] +6221 5296 9651 Silva Halim Managing Director [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Lokman Lie Head of Equity Capital Market [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Feliciana Ramonda Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Henry Pranoto Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Kevin Giarto Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Sharon Anastasia Tjahjadi Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Talitha Medha Anindya Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Angga Aditya Assaf Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Ilona Carissa Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Jane Theodoven Sukardi Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Michael Taarea Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Andreas M. Gunawidjaja Head Retail Equities [email protected] 6221 5296 9693 Boy Triyono Jakarta [email protected] 6221 5296 5678 Care Center Online Jakarta [email protected] 14032 Ruwie Medan [email protected] 6261 8050 1825 Linawati Surabaya [email protected] 6231 535 7218 Maulidia Osviana Lampung [email protected] 62721 476 135 Aidil Idham Palembang [email protected] 62711 319 900 Dhanan Febrie Handita Bandung [email protected] 6222 426 5088 Yuri Ariadi Pontianak [email protected] 62561 582 293 Yogiswara Perdana Yogyakarta [email protected] 62274 560 596 Achmad Rasyid Bali [email protected] 62361 475 3066 www.most.co.id [email protected] 14032

INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (15% or higher), Neutral (-15% to15%) and Sell (-15% or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number 62-21-5263445 or fax 62-21-5275374. ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.

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