cpt4 - system loss analysis-6th batch jvm edited

7/29/2019 CPT4 - System Loss Analysis-6th Batch JVM Edited

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NATIONAL ELECTRIFICATION ADMINISTRATIONU. P. NATIONAL ENGINEERING CENTER

Certificate in

Power System Modeling and Analysis

Competency Training and Certification Program in Electric Power Distribution System Engineering

U. P. NATIONAL ENGINEERING CENTERU. P. NATIONAL ENGINEERING CENTER

Competency Training and Certification Program in Electric Power Distribution System Engineering

T r a i n i n g Co u r s e i n

Sy s t em Lo s s A n a l y s i s


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2

Competency Training & Certi fication Program in

Electric Power Distribution System EngineeringU. P. National Engineering Center

National Electrification Administration




Training Course in System Loss Analysis

Co u r s e Ou t l i n e

System Loss Caps

Distribution System Loss Models andMethodologies

Segregation of Distribution SystemLosses

System Loss Reduction and Control

Petition for Compliance to ERC DSL


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3








Sy s t em Lo s s Ca p s

RA 9136 on System Loss Caps PDC Chapter 3.4.1

Guidelines for the Application andApproval of Caps on the Recoverable Rateof Distribution System Losses


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RA 9 1 3 6 o n Sy s t e m Lo s s Ca p s

Based on the RA 9136 Chapter IV, Section 43(f) the cap on the recoverable rate of systemlosses prescribed in Section 10 of RA 7832 ishereby amended and shall be replaced by capswhich shall be determined by the ERC based on

a . L o a d D e n s i t y

b . Sa l e s M i x

c . Co s t o f S e r v i ce

d . D e l i v e r y V o l t a g e

e . A n d o t h e r t e ch n i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s i t

m a y p r o m u l g a t e


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PDC Ch a p t e r 3 .4 .1

Based on the Philippine Distribution Code(PDC) Chapter 3.4.1, system losses shall besegregated into the following components:

a .Te c h n i ca l L o s s

b . N o n - T e c h n i c a l L o s s a n d

c .A d m i n i s t r a t i v e Lo s s


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Guidelines for the Application and Approval ofGuidelines for the Application and Approval of

Caps on the Recoverable Rate ofCaps on the Recoverable Rate ofDistribution System lossesDistribution System losses

Article I General Provisions

Article II Segregation Distribution System LossesArticle III Recoverable Rate of Distribution System

Losses

Article IV Filing Requirements and Procedures

Article V Reportorial Requirements and Monitoring

Article VI Administrative SanctionsArticle VII Repeal and

SeparabilityAnnex A

Methodology for the

Segregation of DSL

Annex B

Data Requirements

Templates

7T i i C i S L A l i


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Guidelines for the Application and Approval of Caps onGuidelines for the Application and Approval of Caps on

the Recoverable Rate ofthe Recoverable Rate of

Distribution System lossesDistribution System losses

Total Distribution System Losses

Administrative Loss Technical Loss Non-Technical Loss

Energy Deliveredto the Distribution

System

EnergyDelivered to the

Customers-

=

Metered EnergyConsumption ofEssential andConnected Loads

Three Phase Load FlowSimulations ofDistribution System

Residual after subtractingAdministrative & TechnicalLoss from Total DistributionSystem Losses

Article II - Segregation Distribution System Losses

8T i i C i S t L A l i


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Caps on the Recoverable Rate ofCaps on the Recoverable Rate of


Calculation and Reporting Period

Monthly

Coincides with the billing cycle

Distribution Utilities shall report thefollowing:

Number of Days Number of Hours; and Dates Covered by the Billing Period

9T i i C i S t L A l i


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The component of Distribution System Lossesthat accounts for the electric energy used by theDistribution Utility in the proper operation of theDistribution System including the followingfacilities subject to ERC Approval:

Administrative Loss

a. Distribution Substations;

b. Offices;c. Warehouses; andd. Workshops.

10Training Course in System Loss Analysis


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Distribution System lossesDistribution System lossesFacility/Activity:

Location:

Purpose:

Space Area (sq. m.):

Number of Occupants:

Count QuantityConnected Load

(Description)Use of Connected Load

Rating

(Watts)

AverageDemand

(kW)

AverageDuration

(Hrs)

Ave. MonthlyConsumption

(kWhr)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1314

15

16

17

18

19

20

Total Monthly Energy Consumption (kWhr)

Connected and Essential

Electrical Loadsa) Distribution Substations

b) Offices

c) Warehouses and Workshops

d) Other essential electrical Loads

Tobe

Approv

edby

ERC

Actual (i.e., metered) energy consumption

Qu a n t i f y i n g A dm i n i s t r a t i v e Lo s s



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The component that is inherent in the electricalequipment, devices and conductors used in thephysical delivery of electric energy. It includes boththe Load and No-Load (or fixed) losses.

Technical Loss = [Hourly Load and No-Load (Fixed)Losses in all electrical equipment,

devices and conductors]Computer Simulations of Power Flow of Distribution

System based on Billing Cycles and Estimates for

Metering Equipment Losses

Technical Loss






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Customer Energy Bill

Distribution System Data

Distribution

System Loss

Analysis

Program

(3-phase Load Flow)

S e g r e g a t e d

T e c h n i c a l L o s s

(Billing Period)

Me t e r i n g

Eq u i p m e n t

L o s s Metering Equipment

Inventory

Distribution Reliability

Assessment

Ca l cu l a t i o n o f T e c h n i ca l Lo s s



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Potential Transformer Loss

= Power Loss in PT (kW) x Number of PT x Number of Operating

Hours in the Billing PeriodCurrent Transformer Loss

= Power Loss in CT (kW) x Number of CT x Number of Operating

Hours in the Billing Period

Electric Meter Potential Coil Loss

= Power Loss in Electric Meter Potential Coil (kW) x Number of

Electric Meters x Number of Operating Hours in the Billing Period

Electric Meter Current Coil Loss



Operating Hours = No. of days x 24 hours SAIDI

Metering Equipment Losses






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Non-Technical Loss

The component that is not related to the physicalcharacteristics and functions of the electricalsystem, and is caused primarily by human error,

whether intentional or not.Includes the electric energy lost due to pilferage,tampering of meters and erroneous meter

reading.For purposes of these Guidelines, the Load Lossdue to electric Energy pilferage shall be considered

as part of the Non-Technical Loss.



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Non-Technical Loss= Total Distribution System Losses

- Administrative Loss

- Technical Loss

- Recovered Losses

Recovered Energy through anti-pilferage activities or anyother form of recovery subject to ERC approval shall besubtracted from the Non-Technical Loss.

Recovered Energy shall be so reported to reflect its character

as a delayed metered energy consumption of End-Users.

Ca l cu l a t i o n o f N o n - T e ch n i ca l Lo s s






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g y y

Three (3) Separate Caps for Segregated Losses

Cap for the Technical Loss % of Energy Input to the Distribution System

Based on Historical and Forecasted Technical Losses ERC may choose to adopt grouping of DUs taking intoaccount technical characteristics

Cap for the Non-Technical Loss

% of Energy Input to the Distribution System Declining Cap based on Proposed Non-Technical LossReduction Program

Cap for the Administrative LosskWhr allowance based on existing essential loads

Article III - Recoverable Rate of Distribution System Losses






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g y y

Expenses associated with any technical loss

reduction program shall be considered part of DUcapital and operating costs

Declining Cap for Non-Technical Losses with a

Plan

ERC may decide to implement a rewardmechanism

Example

75% for DU reward / 25% for Customers

-3 Standard Deviation

< -3 Standard Deviation


Technical Loss Cap 100% Recoverable for DU

50% for DU / 50% for Customers

100% for Customers Rate Reduction


25% for DU / 75% for Customers

Sy s t em Lo s s Re d u c t i o n P r o g r a m & I n c e n t i v e s






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g y y



Distribution System lossesDistribution System lossesArticle IV Filing Requirements and Procedures

Petition for Distribution System Loss Caps

Data Requirements Procedures for Filing and Approval

Article V Reportorial Requirements and Monitoring Monthly Reports of Segregated Distribution System Losses

(Frequency to be determined by ERC)

ERC shall monitor and verify, on an annual basis,compliance of DUs on the approved Caps

Article VI Administrative Sanctions

Article VII Repeal and Separability

Annex B

Data Requirements

Templates



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D i s t r i b u t i o n Sy s t e m Lo s s M o d e l s

a n d M e t h o d o l o g i e s

Load-Loss Index Method

Sun Load-Window Models

Cespedes Segregated Joule and Black Loss

Model

Chen Simplified Feeder Loss Model



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Lo a d - Lo s s I n d e x M e t h o d Establishes the relationship between

the Load Factor and the Loss Factor

Load-Loss Index2

(1 )LS LD LDF aF a F = +

max,Loss

ave,Loss

LS

P

PF =

max

aveLD

P

PF =

where:FLS= Loss Factor

FLD= Load FactorPave= Average DemandPmax= Peak DemandPLoss,ave = Losses at average demandP

Loss,max= Losses at peak demand



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Lo a d - Lo s s I n d e x M e t h o d Assume a load curvewith only two levels:peak load and

off-peak loadPeak Load

Average Load

Off-Peak Load

P2

P1

Pave

PLS1PLS,ave

PLS2

t T

Peak Loss

Average Loss

Off-Peak Loss

max 2

ave aveLD

P PF

P P= =

( ) ( )( )2 1ave

P t P T t P

T

+ =

( ) ( )( )2 12

1

2

LD

P t P T t

F P T

Pt T t

T P T

+

=

= +



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Lo a d - Lo s s I n d e x M e t h o d ( ) ( )( ),2 ,1

,

LS LS

LS ave

P t P T t P

T

+ =

( ) ( )( ),2 ,1,2

LS LS

LS

LS

P t P T t F

P T

+ =

Peak Load

Average Load

Off-Peak Load

P2

P1

Pave

PLS1PLS,ave

PLS2

t T

Peak Loss

Average Loss

Off-Peak Loss

2 2

,1 1 ,2 2;LS LSP kP P kP = =

( ) ( )( )2 22 122

2

1

2

LS

kP t kP T t

F kP T

Pt T t

T P T

+

=

= +



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Lo a d - Lo s s I n d e x M e t h o d Case 1:

Off-peak load is zero

Case 2:

Load is steady

Case 3:

Very short-lasting peak

LS LD

tF F

T= =

LS LD

tF F

T

= =

( )2

0

1

LS LD

t

T tT

F F



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Lo a d - Lo s s I n d e x M e t h o d Range of Values

FLD2 < FLS < FLD FLS = a FLD + (1-a) FLD

2

Variation of Loss Factor

with Load Factor

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Load Factor

Loss

Factor



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Lo a d - Lo s s I n d e x M e t h o d Illustration

Annual peak demand = 2000 kW

Total I2R losses at peak load = 100 kW Total Energy delivered = 5.61 x 106

Total annual copper loss = ?

20.16 0.84LS LD LDF F F= +



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Lo a d - Lo s s I n d e x M e t h o d

6

2

5.61 10

0.322000 8760

0.16(0.32) 0.84(0.32) 0.1372

LD

LS

kWh

F kW

F

= =

= + =

LSAverage Power Loss F Loss at Peak Load

0.1372 100

13.72

13.72 8760 hr/yr

120,201 kWh

Power

kW

kW

Annual Copper Loss kW

=

=

=

=

=



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Su n L o a d W i n d o w M o d e l *

Load Modeling

uses Load Windows

Weekday-Weekend, Seasonal (Winter, Summer, shoulder)

Line and Cable Modeling

R + jX for each line/phase

Transformers

Leakage impedance + Core Losses

Core Losses as a function of voltage

Single-phase or three-phase

*IEEE, 1980



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Ce sp e d e s Se g r e g a t e d Jo u l e

a n d B la c k Lo s s M o d e l * L o s s e s

Joule Loss refers to the technical loss

Black Loss refer to the non-technical loss

Power Factor

Assumed constant for all loads, as measured at the substation

Phase Unbalance Neglected

Loads

Peak loads only

Voltages

Constant

*IEEE, 1983



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Ch e n Sim p l i f i e d Fe e d e r Lo s s *

Load Patterns

Determined using load survey (metering) and

customer survey

Secondary Circuit

Equivalent resistance (Rb*Leq)

Transformers Loading

Hourly demands computed from monthly energy

values

Includes Open-Y Open- transformers

*IEEE, 1994-1997



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Ch e n Sim p l i f i e d Fe e d e r Lo s s

2

2

LHLHLossPF

LD0206.3TR0908.0S0041.2P752.06433.32P

+++=

Where,

PLoss: total feeder loss (KW)

P LH: primary conductor length (km)

S LH: secondary conductor length (km)

TR: total transformer capacity (MVA)

LD: feeder loading (MW)

PF: power factor of feeder loading



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Se g r e g a t i o n o f D i s t r i b u t i o n

Sy s t e m Lo s se s Total Distribution System Losses

Administrative Losses

Unbundling the Technical & Non- TechnicalLosses

DSL Segregator Historical Technical Analysis (2004 or 2005)

Forecast Technical Analysis (2006 2010)

Non-Technical Reduction Program

EDUs Application for Caps



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To t a l D i s t r i b u t i o n Sy s t e m Lo s s e s

AdministrativeLoss

+

Total Distribution

System Losses

=

Energy Deliveredto the Distribution

System

EnergyDelivered to

Users

-

Technical Loss Non-Technical Loss+

Bundled Technical & Non-Technical Losses



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To t a l D i s t r i b u t i o n Sy s t e m Lo s s e s

Total DSL = Energy Input - Energy Output

Total DSL= [Energy delivered by the Transmission System]

+ [Energy delivered by Embedded Generating Plants]

+ [Energy delivered by Other Distribution Systems]

+ [Energy delivered by User Systems with

Generating Units]- [Energy delivered to the Users of the Distribution

System]



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A dm i n i s t r a t i v e Lo s s e s

The actual (i.e. metered) electric energyconsumed by essential loads in the facilities of the

Distribution Utility

Administrative Loss =

= [Energy Consumed by Distribution Substations]

+ [Energy Consumed by Offices of the DU]

+ [Energy Consumed by Warehouses and Workshops]


U b d l i t h T h i l d


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U n b u n d l i n g t h e Te ch n i c a l a n d

N o n - Te ch n i c a l Lo s s

Technical

Losses

Non-Technical

Losses

+

-Technical

Losses

Shall be quantified

through 3-Phase

(Unbalanced) Load

Flow Simulations

Non-TechnicalLosses

=Residual after

subtractingAdministrative &

Technical Losses from

the Total Distribution

System Losses


U n b n d l i n g t h e Te ch n i c a l a n d


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N o n - Te ch n i c a l Lo s s Te c h n i ca l Lo s s

= [Hourly Load and No-Load (or Fixed) Losses in allelectrical equipment, devices and conductors]

a)Sub-transmission Linesb)Substation Power Transformers

c)Primary Distribution Lines

d)Distribution Transformers

e)Secondary Distribution Linesf) Service Drops

g) Voltage Regulatorsh) Capacitors

i) Reactors

j) Other electrical equipment

Hourly Load Flow Simulations

P l u s Ca l c u l a t e d M e t e r i n g Eq u i p m e n t L o s s




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Primary Distribution Lines

(Main Feeder)

Substation

Transformer

Residential

Subtransmission Lines

Primary Distribution Lines(Laterals)

Distribution

Transformer

Commercial Industrial

Misc Loads

Secondary Distribution Lines

Service

Drop

Th r e e - P h a s e U n b a l a n c e d

Lo a d Fl o w Sim u l a t i o n s

a)Sub-transmission Lines

b)Substation Power Transformers

c)Primary Distribution Lines

d)Distribution Transformers

e)Secondary Distribution Lines

f) Service Dropsg)Voltage Regulators

h)Capacitors

i) Reactors

j) Other electrical equipment

Load Losses and

No-Load (Fixed) Losses






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Potential Transformer Loss

= Power Loss in PT (kW) x Number of PT x Number of Operating

Hours in the Billing Period

Current Transformer Loss

= Power Loss in CT (kW) x Number of CT x Number of Operating

Hours in the Billing PeriodElectric Meter Potential Coil Loss



Electric Meter Current Coil Loss



Operating Hours = No. of days x 24 hours SAIDI

Ca l c u l a t i o n o f M e t e r i n g Eq u i p m e n t






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N o n - Te ch n i c a l Lo s s N o n - T e ch n i c a l Lo s s

= Total Distribution System Losses

- Administrative Loss

- Technical Loss- Recovered Losses

Note: Losses recovered from anti-pilferage activities aresubtracted from the total distribution system losses.

Recovered Energy shall be so reported to reflect its character

as a delayed metered energy consumption of End-Users.



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DSL Se g r e g a t o r

Customer Energy Bill

Distribution System Data

Distribution

System Loss

Segregation

Program

(3-phase Load Flow)

S e g r e g a t e d

T e c h n i c a l

L o s s (Billing Period)

Me t e r i n g

Eq u i p m e n t

L o s s Metering EquipmentInventory

Distribution Reliability

Assessment



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DSL Se g r e g a t o r


H i s t o r i c a l Te ch n i c a l A n a l y s i s


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TECHNICAL LOSS COMPUTATION

INPUT

ERC DSLTemplatesPer FeederPer Month

DSLSegregator

DSL Simulation

OutputPer FeederPer hour per day in amonth

Output result to use: (kwhr

per day)

Primary Line LossPrimary Service Drop LossDT Load Loss

DT No-load LossSecondary Line LossService Drop LossVR, Shunt Capacitor Losses

Compute

DSL simulationoutput intoPer MeteringpointPer month

RESULT: kwhr per month per

metering point

Primary Line LossPrimary Service Drop LossDT Load Loss

DT No-load LossSecondary Line LossService Drop LossVR, Shunt Capacitor Losses

Output result to use:

( per hour per day inmonth)

INPUT (KW) per hourINPUT (KVAR) perhour

INPUT

Rating of the PowerTransformer

Compute

PowerTransformerLosses


metering point

Power Transformer Load LossPower Transformer No-LoadLoss

INPUT

Internal Loss of Kwhr Meters,

CTs and PTs

Input data to use:

No. of meteredconsumers per feeder

Compute

Metering, CTs &PTs losses


metering point

Meter, CT and PT losses

courtesy of BENECO



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DATA REQUIREMENTS TEMPLATES

ERC-DSL-01 ADMINITRATIVE LOAD DATA

ERC-DSL-02 CUSTOMER DATA

ERC-DSL-03 BILLING CYCLE DATA

ERC-DSL-04 CUSTOMER ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA

ERC-DSL-05 LOAD CURVE DATA ERC-DSL-06 BUS DATA

ERC-DSL-07 SUBTRANSMISSION LINE DATA- OVERHEAD

ERC-DSL-08 SUBTRANSMISSION LINE DATA- UNDERGROUND/ SUBMARINE CABLE

ERC-DSL-09 SUBSTATION POWER TRANSFORMER DATA- TWO WINDING

ERC-DSL-10 SUBSTATION POWER TRANSFORMER DATA- THREE WINDING

ERC-DSL-11 PRIMARY DISTRIBUTION LINE DATA- OVERHEAD

ERC-DSL-12 PRIMARY DISTRIBUTION LINE DATA- UNDERGROUND CABLE

ERC-DSL-13 PRIMARY CUSTOMER SERVICE DROP DATA- OVERHEAD

ERC-DSL-14 PRIMARY CUSTOMER SERVICE DROP DATA- UNDERGROUND

ERC-DSL-15 DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER DATA

ERC-DSL-16 SECONDARY DISTRIBUTION LINE DATA

ERC-DSL-17 SECONDARY CUSTOMER SERVICE DROP DATA

ERC-DSL-18 VOLTAGE REGULATOR DATA

ERC-DSL-19 SHUNT CAPACITOR DATA

ERC-DSL-20 SHUNT INDUCTOR DATA

ERC-DSL-21 SERIES INDUCTOR DATA

ERC-DSL-22 ENERGY SALES DATA

ERC-DSL-23 OTHER TECHNICAL DATA




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H i s t o r i c a l Te ch n i c a l A n a l y s i s FEEDER DATA




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DSL RESULT PER FEEDER PER HOUR PER DAY IN A MONTH




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DSL RESULT PER FEEDER PER HOUR PER DAY IN A MONTH





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H i s t o r i c a l Te ch n i c a l A n a l y s i s DSL RESULT FOR ALL MONTHS PER FEEDER IN KWHR/DAY




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2004 OR 2005 BILLING CYCLE




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H i s t o r i c a l Te ch n i c a l A n a l y s i s RESULT FOR ALL MONTHS PER FEEDER IN KWHR/MONTH




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yRESULT PER METERING POINT FOR ALL MONTHS IN KWHR/MONTH




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TECHNICAL LOSS COMPUTATION FOR POWER TRANSFORMER LOSSES

INPUT


DSLSegregator

DSL SimulationOutputPer FeederPer hour per day in a

month


( per hour per day inmonth)INPUT (KW) per hourINPUT (KVAR) perhour

INPUT

Name Plate Data ofthe PowerTransformer

Compute

PowerTransformerLosses


metering point


courtesy of BENECO




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H i s t o r i c a l Te ch n i c a l A n a l y s i s DSL RESULT PER FEEDER PER HOUR PER DAY IN MONTH




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DSL RESULT PER FEEDER PER HOUR PER DAY IN MONTH




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2004 0R 2005 BILLING CYCLE




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yPOWER TRANSFORMER LOSS COMPUTATION




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TECHNICAL LOSS COMPUTATION FOR KWHOUR-METER LOSSES

INPUT


INPUT

Internal Loss of Kwhr Meters,CTs and PTs

Input data to use:

No. of meteredconsumers perfeeder

Compute


RESULT: kwhr per month

per metering point


courtesy of BENECO




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KILOWATT HOUR METER TESTING




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RESULT FOR METERING EQUIPMENT LOSSES IN KWHR PER MONTH




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INPUT: kwhr per month per

metering point

Primary Line LossPrimary Service Drop LossDT Load LossDT No-load LossSecondary Line LossService Drop LossVR, Shunt Capacitor Losses


metering point


Compute

TECHNICAL WHRLOSSES IN KWHRPER METERING PT.MONTH PER MONTH


metering point


RESULT:

TECHNICAL kwhr losses per

month per metering point

Power Transformer Load LossPower Transformer No-LoadLossPrimary Line LossPrimary Service Drop LossDT Load LossDT No-load Loss

Secondary Line LossService Drop LossVR, Shunt Capacitor LossesMeter, CT and PT losses

Note: Will file new petition if the DUs acquired theSubstransmissionLines of the TRANSCO

courtesy of BENECO




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TECHNICAL LOSS COMPUTATION PER METERING POINT


ADMINISTRATIVE LOAD DATA



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ADMINISTRATIVE LOAD DATA




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ADMINISTRATIVE LOSS COMPUTATION

INPUT


RESULT:

ADMNISTRATIVE kwhr

losses per month per

metering point

Compute

ADMINISTRATIVEKWHR LOSSES PERMETERING POINTPER MONTH

Input data to use:

Administatuve LoadTemplate

INPUT

Historical KwhrAdministrativeLossesPer month perfeeder for year 2004

COMPARE

courtesy of BENECO




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ADMINISTRATIVE LOAD LOSS PER METERING POINT PER MONTH




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yNON-TECHNICAL LOSS COMPUTATION

INPUT:

ADMNISTRATIVE kwhrlosses per month permetering point

INPUT:

TECHNICAL kwhrlosses per month permetering point

INPUT

ENERGY PURCHASE(input) & ENERGYSALES (output) permonth per meteringpoint

RESULT:

NON-TECHNICAL kwhrlosses per month per

metering point

Compute

NON-TECHNICALKWHR LOSSES PERMETERING POINTPER MONTH

courtesy of BENECO



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NON-TECHNICAL LOSS COMPUTATION




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y

SEGREGATED DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM LOSSES

INPUT:

NON-TECHNICAL kwhr


metering point

INPUT:

ADMNISTRATIVE kwhr

losses per month permetering point

INPUT:

TECHNICAL kwhr


metering point

RESULT:

SEGREGATEDDISTRIBUTION SYSTEMLOSSES PER MONTH

Compute

SEGREGATEDDISTRIBUTIONSYSTEM LOSSESPER MONTH

INPUT

ENERGY PURCHASE(input) & ENERGYSALES (output) permonth per meteringpoint

courtesy of BENECO




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SEGREGATED LOSSES FOR ATOK SUBSTATION (METERING POINT)


H i s t o r i c a l Te ch n i c a l A n a l y s i s SUMMARY OF SYSTEM LOSSES FOR YR 2004 OR 2005


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SUMMARY OF SYSTEM LOSSES FOR YR 2004 OR 2005


Fo r e ca s t Te ch n i c a l A n a l y s i s


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LOAD FORECASTING METHOD

CUBIC

TRENDING

METHOD

INPUT:

Minimum of 7-year Historical

Sales (Output)data

RESULT:FIVE-YEARFORECASTEDENERGYSALES(OUTPUTDATA)

Other Load Forecasting Methods(Spatial Load Forecasting)

courtesy of BENECO




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LOAD FORECASTING METHODINPUT:

FIVE-YEAR (2006-2010)ALLOCATED

ADDITIONAL SALES

(referred to year 2004)

RESULT:

ALLOCATEDADDITIONALSALES(OUTPUT) PERFEEDER PER

MONTH YEAR(2006-2010)

INPUT:

2004 ENERGYSALES (output)per Feeder permonth

Compute

(use

formula

below)

Where:FSM2004 = 2004 Sales per month per FeederFSA2004 = 2004 Sales per year per FeederAAS = Allocated Additional Sales per yearAASy = Allocated Additional Sales per yearper FeederAASm = Allocated Additional Sales per month per Feeder

2004

2004

FSM

FSAAASyAASm

=

AASsAnnualSale

FSAAASy =

2004

2004

courtesy of BENECO




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INPUT:

ALLOCATED ADDITIONALSALES (OUTPUT) PERFEEDER PER MONTHYEAR (2006-2010)

INPUT:DETERMINE THE NUMBER OFNEWCONNECTION/CONSUMERPOINTS FOR THE ADDITIONALSALES (OUPUT)

RESULT:

ALLOCATEDADDITIONAL SALES(OUTPUT) PERCONNECTION POINTPER MONTH PERFEEDER FOR YEARS2006-2010

Compute

(use formula

below)

LOAD FORECASTING METHOD

Where:

CP = No. of additional connection pointsAASm = Allocated Additional Sales per month per FeederCAASm = Allocated Additional Sales per month per Feeder ofeach new connection point

CP

AASmCAASm =

courtesy of BENECO

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MINIMUM PRIMARY LINE VOLTAGE

DSL SimulationOutputPer FeederPer hour per dayin a month

Output result to use:( per hour per day in month)

PRIMARY VOLTAGEPROFILE

DETERMINE

MINIMUM

VOLTAGE PER

FEEDER

RESULT:

MINIMUMPRIMARYLINEVOLTAGEPER FEEDER

courtesy of BENECO

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DATA REQUIREMENT FOR FORECAST DSL SIMULATION

RESULT:

FORECASTERC DSL

TemplatesPer Feeder

Per Year

(EDITEDFORM FROM

J ANUARY2004 ERC DSL

TEMPLATE)

INPUT:

ALLOCATED ADDITIONALSALES (OUTPUT) PERCONNECTION POINT PERMONTH PER FEEDER FORYEARS 2006-2010

INPUT:

TYPICAL LOAD CURVE PERMETERING POINT

MINIMUMPRIMARY LINEVOLTAGE PER

FEEDER

(CRITERIA =92.5%)

INPUT

REQUIRED

DATA TO THE

APPROPRIATE

SHEET

BASE MONTH = JANUARYcourtesy of BENECO

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TECHNICAL LOSS CALCULATION

HISTORICALDSL SimulationOutputPer FeederPer hour per dayin a month


ALL MONTHLY LOSSES INPERCENT (%)

% referred to the EnergyInput up to Primary Line

OBTAIN THE

RATIO OF THE

PRIMARY LINE

LOSS OF ALL

THE MONTHS

REFERRED TO

THE BASE

MONTH

RESULT:

RATIO OF PRIMARY LINELOSSES OF FEBRUARYTO DECEMBERREFERRED TO J ANUARY

PRIMARY TO SERVICE DROP LINE LOSS CALCULATION (%)

BASE MONTH = JANUARY

courtesy of BENECO

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BASE MONTH = JANUARY

INPUT:

FORECAST ERC DSL

TemplatesPer FeederPer Year

(EDITED FORM FROMJ ANUARY 2004 ERC DSLTEMPLATE)

DSL Segregator

FORECAST DSLSimulation OutputPer FeederPer hour per dayfor J ANUARY


PRIMARY LINE LOSSIN PERCENT (%)% referred to theEnergy Input up PrimaryLine

OBTAIN THE

PRIMARY LINE

LOSS PERCENT(%)

EQUIVALENT OF

THE REST OF

THE MONTH

(FEBRUARY-

DECEMBER)

RESULTNEXTPAGE

IS

MINIMUM PRIMARY

LINE VOLTAGE PER

FEEDER

GREATER THAN92.5%

DO NOT SIMULATE THENEXT YEAR. OBTAIN DSLOUTPUT RESULT OF THEPREVIOUS SIMULATION

YES

YES NO

INPUT:

RATIO OF PRIMARYLINE LOSSES OFFEBRUARY TO

DECEMBER REFERREDTO J ANUARY

courtesy of BENECO

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RESULT: (PER FEEDER)

PERCENT(%) EQUIVALENT OFPrimary Line Loss

Primary Service Drop LossDT Load LossDT No-load LossSecondary Line LossService Drop LossVR, Shunt Capacitor Losses

% referred to the Energy Input up to PrimaryLine

FIXED orequal toBaseYear

JanuaryDecemberFebruary PLLRatioEquivalent %% =

Base

MonthossimaryLineLRatio

%

)(%Pr=

NOTE:ONLY THE PRIMARY LINE LOSS PERCENTAGE(%) INCREASES WHILE THE REST OF THE LINE

LOSS PERCENTAGES REMAIN AS IS.

Where:

%Base = Primary Line Loss in % per month per feeder

Base month = J anuaryRatio = ratio of the primary line loss % of the month over the primary line loss % of the base month (J anuary)

% Equivalent = % equivalent of primary line loss for February to December of the forecasted years (2006-2010)%PLL = % Primary Line loss simulated from the forecasted DSL ERC Template (J anuary)

courtesy of BENECO

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PRIMARY TO SERVICE DROP LINE LOSS

CALCULATION (%)INPUT: (PER FEEDER)

PERCENT(%) EQUIVALENTOF

Primary Line Loss

Primary Service Drop

LossDT Load LossDT No-load LossSecondary Line LossService Drop LossVR, Shunt CapacitorLosses

% referred to the Energy Inputup to Primary Line

INPUT:

ALLOCATED ADDITIONALSALES (OUTPUT) PER

FEEDER PER MONTH YEAR(2006-2010)

CALCULATE THE

EQUIVALENT

KWHR LOSSES

OF THECOMPONENTS

RESULT: (PER FEEDER)

KWHR EQUIVALENT OFPrimary Line LossPrimary Service Drop LossDT Load LossDT No-load Loss

Secondary Line LossService Drop LossVR, Shunt CapacitorLosses

EQUIVALENT KWHR = % EQUIVALENT x ENERGY INPUT

)1()2004( MonthMonthMonthMonth ntLossTotalPercelesditionalSaForecastAdSalestEnergyInpu ++=

courtesy of BENECO

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METERING LOSSES CALCULATION

CUBIC TRENDING

METHOD

INPUT:

Minimum of 7-yearHistorical AverageNo. of Consumersdata

RESULT:

FIVE-YEARFORECASTEDAVERAGE NO. OFCONSUMERS

INPUT

Internal Loss of Kwhr Meters,CTs and PTs

Input:

No. of FORECASTEDmetered consumersper feeder PER YEAR

Compute



metering point

Meter, CT and PT losses perfeeder per month per year

courtesy of BENECO

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PRIMARY TO METERING LOSS CALCULATION

CALCULATE THE

KWHR LOSSES

OF THECOMPONENTS

PER METERING

POINT

RESULT: (PER METERING POINT)

KWHR LOSS OF:Primary Line LossPrimary Service Drop LossDT Load LossDT No-load LossSecondary Line LossService Drop LossVR, Shunt Capacitor LossesMeter, CT and PT losses

INPUT: (PER FEEDER)

KWHR EQUIVALENT OFPrimary Line LossPrimary Service Drop LossDT Load LossDT No-load LossSecondary Line LossService Drop LossVR, Shunt CapacitorLosses


courtesy of BENECO

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POWER TRANSFORMER LOSS

CALCULATION

INPUTRating of the Power

Transformer

Compute

Power

TransformerLosses

RESULT: kwhr per

month per metering

point

Power TransformerLoad LossPower Transformer No-Load Loss

INPUT

FORECAST

TYPICAL LOADCURVE OF EACHMETERING POINT

INPUT

FORECASTDAILY INPUT FORPOWERTRANSFORMERLOADING

courtesy of BENECO

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SUMMARY OF TECHNICAL LOSS

CALCULATIONINPUT: kwhr per month per

metering point

Primary Line LossPrimary Service Drop LossDT Load LossDT No-load LossSecondary Line LossService Drop LossVR, Shunt Capacitor Losses


metering point

Power Transformer Load LossPower Transformer No-Load

Loss

Compute

TECHNICAL WHRLOSSES IN KWHRPER METERING PT.MONTH PER MONTH


metering point


RESULT:




LossPrimary Line LossPrimary Service Drop LossDT Load LossDT No-load LossSecondary Line Loss

Service Drop LossVR, Shunt Capacitor LossesMeter, CT and PT losses

courtesy of BENECO

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ADMINISTRATIVE LOSS CALCULATION

RESULT:(PER FEEDER)

FORECASTED ERC DSLTemplate-ADMINISTRATIVE LOADsheetPer FeederPer Month

COMBINEADMINISTRATIVELOSSES PERMETERING POINT

INPUT:

Programmedadditionaladministrative load forthe next five yearsbased from DDP

INPUT:(PER FEEDER)

REVISED ERC DSLTemplate-ADMINISTRATIVE LOADsheetPer FeederPer Month

ADD THEADDITIONAL LOAD

TO THEHISTORICAL DSL

TEMPPLATE


metering point

ADMINISTRATIVE LOAD PerMonth

courtesy of BENECO

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Fo r e ca s t Te ch n i c a l A n a l y s i s ENERGY INPUT (PURCHASE) CALCULATION


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INPUT:




LossPrimary Line LossPrimary Service Drop LossDT Load LossDT No-load LossSecondary Line LossService Drop Loss

VR, Shunt Capacitor LossesMeter, CT and PT lossesINPUT: kwhr per month per

metering pointADMINISTRATIVE LOSS PerMonth

INPUT:ALLOCATED ENERGY SALES(OUTPUT) PER METERINGPOINT PER MONTH YEAR(2006-2010)

CALCULATE THEENERGY INPUTPER METERINGPOINT


metering pointENERGY INPUT PER METERINGPOINT

INPUT:

HISTORICAL (2004) % NON-TECHNICAL LOSS PERMETERING POINT

Energy Input (Purchase)kwhr

= Energy Saleskwhr

+ Admin Losskwhr

+ Technical Losskwhr

1- % Non-Technical Loss

courtesy of BENECO

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SUMMARY OF THE FORECASTED

SEGREGATED DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM LOSS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


metering point

TECHNICAL LOSSADMINISTRATIVE LOSS

ENERGY INPUT (PURCHASE)ENERGY OUTPUT (SALES)

CALCULATESEGREGATEDLOSSES PERMONTH

RESULT:

SEGREGATED DISTRIBUTIONSYSTEM LOSSES PER MONTHPER YEAR

INPUT:

SEGREGATED LOSSES PERMONTH PER YEAR

SUMMARIZERESULT PER YEARWITH SENSITIVITYANALYSIS

RESULT:

FORECASTED SEGREGATEDDISTRIBUTION SYSTEMLOSSES PER YEAR

courtesy of BENECO

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N o n - Te ch n i c a l Lo s s Re d u c t i o n

P r o g r a m


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1.Factors contributory to non

technical loss

2.Materials and Costs in the non

technical loss reductionprogram

3.Projects / Activities

courtesy of BENECO

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N o n - Te ch n i c a l Lo s s Re d u c t i o n P r o g r am


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DATA INPUT:Non technical loss

per metering point (inkwhr) as a result ofDSL Segregation

ACTIVITIES /PROJECTS TOREDUCE NON

TECHNICALLOSS

PROJECT

COST PERACTIVITY

COMPUTE FORTHE OPTIMUMLEVEL OF LEAST% OF NON-TECHNICAL LOSS

ACTIVITY /PROJECT

IMPLEMENTATION

DATA INPUT:Per Metering Data

courtesy of BENECO

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ACTIVITIES / PROGRAMS TO REDUCE NON TECHNICAL LOSS


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ACTIVITIES / PROGRAMS TO REDUCE NON TECHNICAL LOSS:Communal Distribution Transformer Metering

Inspection and apprehension

Kwhr Meter Replacement (apprehended)

Phased out kwhr meter replacement (old kwhr meters)

Sole use Distribution Transformer metering

Streetlight kwhr metering

Streetlight Photo switching

Right of way clearing

Loose Connection correction

Others

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EXAMPLE: LAMUT S/S METERING POINT


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National E

cpt4 - system loss analysis-6th batch jvm edited

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