create summer school tim canty - candacsources: ipcc 2007 wg2 figure spm.2; six degrees: our future...
TRANSCRIPT
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Tim Canty
Geo-engineering of climate
Lecture C
27 July 2012
CREATE Summer School
Today:
• Climate change
• Geo-engineering of climate
• How this may affect the polar regions
• Will it really work?
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Is the climate warming?
2
Monthly, global temperature anomaly
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Is the climate warming?
3
Monthly, global temperature anomaly
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Is the climate warming?
4
Monthly, global temperature anomaly
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Is the climate warming?
5
Monthly, land temperature anomaly
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Is the climate warming?
6
Monthly, land temperature anomaly
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Is the climate warming?
7
Monthly, land temperature anomaly
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Is the climate warming?
8
Monthly, land temperature anomaly
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Is the climate warming?
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Monthly, land temperature anomaly
So, the Earth is getting warmer.
What’s the big deal?
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Consequences of Climate Change as a
Function of Future Rise in Globally Averaged T 1°C
– Increased damage from flooding & storms
– Coral bleaching
2°C: – Severe damage to Arctic, alpine, and coral ecosystems
– Freshwater resources stressed, leading to widespread crop shortages
3°C: – ~30% of global coastal wetlands lost
– Terrestrial biomass could become net carbon source due to drought,
accelerating rise in atmospheric CO2
4°C:
– Widespread coral mortality
– Melting of Ronne and Ross Ice Sheets
5°C:
– Permanent loss of ice sheets at both poles
– Loss of ocean clathrates, accelerating rise in atmospheric CH4
Sources: IPCC 2007 WG2 Figure SPM.2; Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas;
Chris Barnet presentations on Global Warming
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Consequences of Climate Change as a
Function of Future Rise in Globally Averaged T 1°C
– Increased damage from flooding & storms
– Coral bleaching
2°C: – Severe damage to Arctic, alpine, and coral ecosystems
– Freshwater resources stressed, leading to widespread crop shortages
3°C: – ~30% of global coastal wetlands lost
– Terrestrial biomass could become net carbon source due to drought,
accelerating rise in atmospheric CO2
4°C:
– Widespread coral mortality
– Melting of Ronne and Ross Ice Sheets
5°C:
– Permanent loss of ice sheets at both poles
– Loss of ocean clathrates, accelerating rise in atmospheric CH4
Sources: IPCC 2007 WG2 Figure SPM.2; Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas;
Chris Barnet presentations on Global Warming
So, the Earth is getting warmer.
What’s the big deal?
Hmm… OK, what can we do about this?
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Atmospheric Radiation
Panel (a): Curves of black-body energy versus
wavelength for 5750 K (Sun’s approximate
temperature) and for 245 K (Earth’s mean
temperature). The curves are drawn with equal area
since, integrated over the entire Earth at the top of
the atmosphere, the solar (downwelling) and
terrestrial (upwelling) fluxes must be equal.
Panel (b): absorption by atmospheric gases for a
clear vertical column of the atmosphere (1.0
represents complete absorption).
From Houghton, Physics of Atmospheres, 1991
• Solar irradiance (downwelling) at top of atmosphere occurs at wavelengths
between ~200 and 2000 nm (~5750 K “black body” temperature)
• Thermal irradiance (upwelling) at top of the atmosphere occurs at wavelengths
between ~5 and 50 m (~245 K “black body” temperature)
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Atmospheric Radiation
Panel (a): Curves of black-body energy versus
wavelength for 5750 K (Sun’s approximate
temperature) and for 245 K (Earth’s mean
temperature). The curves are drawn with equal area
since, integrated over the entire Earth at the top of
the atmosphere, the solar (downwelling) and
terrestrial (upwelling) fluxes must be equal.
Panel (b): absorption by atmospheric gases for a
clear vertical column of the atmosphere (1.0
represents complete absorption).
From Houghton, Physics of Atmospheres, 1991
• Solar irradiance (downwelling) at top of atmosphere occurs at wavelengths
between ~200 and 2000 nm (~5750 K “black body” temperature)
• Thermal irradiance (upwelling) at top of the atmosphere occurs at wavelengths
between ~5 and 50 m (~245 K “black body” temperature)
CFC’s absorb in the clearest region of the
“Atmospheric Window”
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GWP weighted emissions of CO2
GWP weighted emissions of CFCs,
without early aerosol propellant ban
(i.e., no ban on CFCs)
GWP weighted emissions of CFCs,
without Montreal Protocol
Velders et al., PNAS, 2007
ODS
Actual
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Geo-engineering of weather & climate has a long history:
• 1945: John von Neumann and other leading scientists meet at Princeton and agreed
that modifying weather deliberately might be possible (motivation was “next great war”)
• 1958: US Congress funded expanded rainmaking research (Irving Langmuir, GE)
• Cold War: U.S. military agencies devoted significant funds to research on what
came to be called "climatological warfare”
one aim was to make the Arctic Ocean navigable by eliminating the ice pack
extensive cloud-seeding conducted over Ho Chi Minh Trail during Vietnam war,
to increase rainfall and bog down the North Vietnamese Army's supply line in mud
• 1975: Mikhail Budyko calculated that if global warming ever became a serious threat,
we could counter with just a few airplane flights a day in the stratosphere, burning
sulfur to make aerosols that would reflect sunlight away
• 1977: N.A.S. report looked at a variety of schemes to reduce global warming, should it
ever become dangerous, and concluded a turn to renewable energy was a more practical
solution than geo-engineering of climate
Source: S. Weart, The Discovery of Global Warming, Harvard University Press, 2003
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/
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Geo-engineering of climate garnered renewed attention
with the publication, in August 2006, of an article entitled:
Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution
to Resolved a Policy Dilemma?
by Paul J. Crutzen : Climatic Change, 77, 211-219, 2006
Geo-engineering of weather & climate has a long history:
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Geo-engineering of climate garnered renewed attention
with the publication, in August 2006, of an article entitled:
Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution
to Resolved a Policy Dilemma?
by Paul J. Crutzen : Climatic Change, 77, 211-219, 2006
Geo-engineering of weather & climate has a long history:
(1995)
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Geo-engineering of climate garnered renewed attention
with the publication, in August 2006, of an article entitled:
Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution
to Resolved a Policy Dilemma?
by Paul J. Crutzen : Climatic Change, 77, 211-219, 2006
Geo-engineering of weather & climate has a long history:
(1995)
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Geo-engineering of climate garnered renewed attention
with the publication, in August 2006, of an article entitled:
Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution
to Resolved a Policy Dilemma?
by Paul J. Crutzen : Climatic Change, 77, 211-219, 2006
Geo-engineering of weather & climate has a long history:
(1995)
“…major volcanic eruptions can thus cause a drop in global mean
surface temperature of about half a degree Celsius that can last for
months and even years”. IPCC 2007
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Geo-engineering of climate garnered lots of renewed attention
with the publication, in August 2006, of an article entitled:
Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution
to Resolved a Policy Dilemma?
by Paul J. Crutzen : Climatic Change, 77, 211-219, 2006
According to model calculations … complete improvement in air quality
could lead to a decadal global average surface air temperature increase by
0.8 K on most continents and 4 K in the Arctic. Further studies indicate that
global average climate warming during this century may even surpass the
highest values in the projected IPCC global warming range of 1.4–5.8ºC
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Geo-engineering of climate garnered lots of renewed attention
with the publication, in August 2006, of an article entitled:
Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution
to Resolved a Policy Dilemma?
by Paul J. Crutzen : Climatic Change, 77, 211-219, 2006
According to model calculations … complete improvement in air quality
could lead to a decadal global average surface air temperature increase by
0.8 K on most continents and 4 K in the Arctic. Further studies indicate that
global average climate warming during this century may even surpass the
highest values in the projected IPCC global warming range of 1.4–5.8ºC
What aspect of air quality improvement
might lead to a large increase
in surface air temperature?
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Atmospheric Response to Mt. Pinatubo
Soden et al.,
Science, 2002
Agung El Chichón
Santa María
Pinatubo
Agung El Chichón
Santa María
Pinatubo
Mt Pinatubo erupted in June 1991,
depositing 6 Tg of sulfur into the stratosphere
The Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) reported global avg’d cooling of ~0.5°C
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Geo-engineering of climate garnered lots of renewed attention
with the publication, in August 2006, of an article entitled:
Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution
to Resolved a Policy Dilemma?
by Paul J. Crutzen : Climatic Change, 77, 211-219, 2006
• Requires 5.3 Tg perturbation to stratospheric S to counter
requires continuous injection of 2.65 to 5.3 Tg S per year (due to 2 or 1 yr τ STRATOSPHERE)
estimated cost $70 to 140 billion per year ($70 to 140 per capita of affluent world)
for comparison: annual military expenditures $1000 billion per year
advocates manufacture & surface release of a special gas (insoluble, non-toxic,
un-reactive with OH, and zero GWP) that is processed photochemically only
in the stratosphere to yield sulfate aerosols (he’s an atmospheric chemist!)
• Ozone depletion
Global column O3 declined by ~2.5% following eruption of Mt. Pinatubo
Compensating for CO2 doubling would lead to less ozone loss than followed Pinatubo
Stratospheric chlorine is declining, so enhanced O3 loss less worrisome in the future
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25
Geo-engineering of climate garnered lots of renewed attention
with the publication, in August 2006, of an article entitled:
Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution
to Resolved a Policy Dilemma?
by Paul J. Crutzen : Climatic Change, 77, 211-219, 2006
• Requires 5.3 Tg perturbation to stratospheric S to counter
requires continuous injection of 2.65 to 5.3 Tg S per year (due to 2 or 1 yr τ STRATOSPHERE)
estimated cost $70 to 140 billion per year ($70 to 140 per capita of affluent world)
for comparison: annual military expenditures $1000 billion per year
advocates manufacture & surface release of a special gas (insoluble, non-toxic,
un-reactive with OH, and zero GWP) that is processed photochemically only
in the stratosphere to yield sulfate aerosols (he’s an atmospheric chemist!)
• Ozone depletion
Global column O3 declined by ~2.5% following eruption of Mt. Pinatubo
Compensating for CO2 doubling would lead to less ozone loss than followed Pinatubo
Stratospheric chlorine is declining, so enhanced O3 loss less worrisome in the future
Will the response of polar ozone to stratospheric sulfur injection be as modest
as suggested by the response of global ozone to Mt. Pinatubo aerosol?
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Arctic Ozone Loss vs PSC Exposure
PSCs polar stratospheric clouds: provide surfaces for heterogeneous
conversion of HCl and ClNO3 to ClO
update to Rex et al., 2006
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Stratospheric Optical Depth
• Chlorine activation reactions occur on cold aerosols
• Chlorine activation depends on T as well as Surface Area
• Volcanoes provide more reactive surface area than PSCs !
Tabazadeh et al., PNAS, 99, 2609, 2002
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Effect of Geo-Engineering on Arctic O3 Loss
Tilmes et al., Science, 2008
Enhancement of stratospheric aerosols due to geo-engineering risks:
a) future Arctic Ozone Hole in “cold” winters
b) 30 to 70 year delay in the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole
Cold Winter Moderately Cold Winter
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Geo-engineering of climate garnered lots of renewed attention
with the publication, in August 2006, of an article entitled:
Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution
to Resolved a Policy Dilemma?
by Paul J. Crutzen : Climatic Change, 77, 211-219, 2006
• Ozone depletion
Global column O3 ↓ 2.5% following eruption of Mt. Pinatubo
Compensating for CO2 doubling would lead to less ozone loss than followed Pinatubo
Stratospheric chlorine is declining, so enhanced O3 loss less worrisome in the future
▪ National Academy of Sciences:
For the injection of sulfate aerosols, an additional concern exists: the potential for
increased concentrations of stratospheric aerosols to enhance the ability of residual
chlorine, left from the legacy of chlorofluorocarbon use, to damage the ozone layer,
especially in the early spring months at high latitudes. A sudden increase in stratospheric
sulfate aerosol could strongly enhance chemical loss of stratospheric polar
ozone for several decades, especially in the Arctic (Tilmes et al., 2008: 89 citations)
There’s something else to consider…
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Analysis of Surface Temperature
30 Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
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Weighted Multiple Linear Regression
31 Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
TMDL i = (1+ γ) (GHG RF i ) + (NAA RF i)
+ Co + C1SOD i−6 + C2TSI i + C3ENSO i
+ C4AMO i + C5PDO i + C6IOD i
QOCEAN i
Anthropogenic forcing term: accounts for greenhouse gas (GHG)
radiative forcing and net anthropogenic aerosol (NAA) radiative forcing
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Weighted Multiple Linear Regression
32 Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
TMDL i = (1+ γ) (GHG RF i ) + (NAA RF i)
+ Co + C1SOD i−6 + C2TSI i + C3ENSO i
+ C4AMO i + C5PDO i + C6IOD i
QOCEAN i
Multiple linear regression: determines the contribution to temperature
record from various climate proxies.
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Weighted Multiple Linear Regression
33 Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
TMDL i = (1+ γ) (GHG RF i ) + (NAA RF i)
+ Co + C1SOD i−6 + C2TSI i + C3ENSO i
+ C4AMO i + C5PDO i + C6IOD i
QOCEAN i
Export of energy into the ocean
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Analysis of Surface Temperature
34 Lean and Rind, GRL, 2008 Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
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Analysis of Surface Temperature
35 Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
Our model includes a climate sensitivity
parameter that accounts for feedbacks due
to water vapor, clouds, albedo, etc..
Also, accounts for energy flow to the ocean
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Analysis of Surface Temperature
36 Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
Our model includes a climate sensitivity
parameter that accounts for feedbacks due
to water vapor, clouds, albedo, etc..
Also, accounts for energy flow to the ocean
We can include other climate proxies in our
regression analysis, such as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Indian Ocean
Dipole (IOD), and the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO)
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Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2004/05mar_arctic
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38
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation occurs
on a 60-70 year cycle (Schelsinger and
Ramunkutty, 1994). Different theories as to
what drive this behavior:
May be due to the interplay between AMOC
and the export of sea ice through the Fram
Strait (Dima and Lohmann, 2007).
Dima and Lohmann, 2007
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39
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation occurs
on a 60-70 year cycle (Schelsinger and
Ramunkutty, 1994). Different theories as to
what drive this behavior:
May be due to the interplay between AMOC
and the export of sea ice through the Fram
Strait (Dima and Lohmann, 2007).
Could be due to forcing from anthropogenic
aerosols (Booth et al., 2012).
Booth et al., 2012
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Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
40 Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
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Analysis of Surface Temperature
41 Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
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Analysis of Surface Temperature
42 Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
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Analysis of Surface Temperature
43 Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
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Analysis of Surface Temperature
44 Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
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45
SOD vs AMO
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46
T vs SOD
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Analysis of Atmospheric Temperature
47 Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
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Analysis of Atmospheric Temperature
48 Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
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Analysis of Atmospheric Temperature
49 Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
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Analysis of Atmospheric Temperature
50 Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
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51
SOD GISS TPINATUBO
Surface
Temperature
Record
NO AMO Had3 SST Had3 LIN Had3 AF
CRU4, global 0.33 0.27 0.15 0.15
GISS, global 0.37 0.32 0.22 0.22
NCDC, global 0.27 0.23 0.15 0.15
CRU4, land 0.55 0.44 0.29 0.35
GISS, land 0.40 0.38 0.30 0.32
NCDC, land 0.50 0.40 0.25 0.28
BEG, land 0.56 0.41 0.25 0.30
Lower Atmos.
Temperature
Record
MSU, global –0.41 –0.39 –0.33 –0.31
MSU, land –0.50 –0.46 –0.37 –0.36
Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
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Overall Implications for Geo-engineering
52
Temperature records indicate atmosphere cooled after major eruptions:
The timing of stratospheric optical depth (SOD) and North Atlantic SST
anomalies suggest changes in ocean circulation preceded the four major
volcanic eruptions that have occurred since 1900.
Data record suggests ocean circulation has affected prior estimates of
volcanic cooling
Geo-engineering schemes based on input of sulfate aerosols into the
stratosphere must be “re-calibrated”
0.5° cooling from Pinatubo based on Atmospheric temperature record
not Surface temperature record
Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
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Overall Implications for Geo-engineering
53
Temperature records indicate atmosphere cooled after major eruptions:
The timing of stratospheric optical depth (SOD) and North Atlantic SST
anomalies suggest changes in ocean circulation preceded the four major
volcanic eruptions that have occurred since 1900.
Data record suggests ocean circulation has affected prior estimates of
volcanic cooling
Geo-engineering schemes based on input of sulfate aerosols into the
stratosphere must be “re-calibrated”
0.5° cooling from Pinatubo based on Atmospheric temperature record
not Surface temperature record
Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
If geo-engineering via anthropogenic release of sulfate aerosols is
still “on the table”… the question remains….
Who controls the thermostat?
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Overall Implications for Geo-engineering
54
Temperature records indicate atmosphere cooled after major eruptions:
The timing of stratospheric optical depth (SOD) and North Atlantic SST
anomalies suggest changes in ocean circulation preceded the four major
volcanic eruptions that have occurred since 1900.
Data record suggests ocean circulation has affected prior estimates of
volcanic cooling
Geo-engineering schemes based on input of sulfate aerosols into the
stratosphere must be “re-calibrated”
0.5° cooling from Pinatubo based on Atmospheric temperature record
not Surface temperature record
Canty et al., ACPD submitted 20 July, 2012
If geo-engineering via anthropogenic release of sulfate aerosols is
still “on the table”… the question remains….
Who controls the thermostat?