Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Climate science is the only scientific discipline with such

an authorative boundary organisation between science

and policy

Why do we need an IPCC?

Glaciers smelt very fast at

Antarctica

22-05-2015 de Volkskrant

Nederlands emit much more CO2

22-04-2015 Trouw

Sea level rises faster

12-05-2015 de Volkskrant

Snow fall slows down

sea level rise

17-03-2015 de Volkskrant

More ice on Antarctica due to climate

change

31-03-2015 Nu.nl

Sea level rises slower than

expected

11-07-2014 de Volkskrant

Nederlands emit less CO2

29-05-2013 Nu.nl

Global warming has already

stopped for 16 years

16-10-2012 Telegraaf

Global warming

slower than expected

21-09-2013 Trouw

Global warming faster than

expected

06-10-2014 New Scientist

Dangerous tropical cyclones have sloweddown because of global warming. Independent, june, 2018

Climate Change likley worsedue to observational errorsAD, 26-10-17

Left-wing climate change histerica is nonsense

NRC, 19-01-2018

No, the Earth cannot get fever

Telegraph, 20-06-2018

CoP21, Paris, Dec 2015

Creating scientific fundament

IPCCIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

1988

1992WMO

Climate change organisation in UN

WHAT IS THE TASK OF THE IPCC?

Providing an assessment of the scientific knowledge of climate change: the physical basis, the vulnerability, socio-economic impacts and adaptation – mitigation options

8 6

WAT IS THE IPCC?A panel with government representatives of all UN member states

• WHAT THE IPCC DOES

Organising the writing process

Determining which rapports should appear

Determines the index

Determines the rules

Approves the reports

• WHAT IT DOES NOT

Ordering reseaerch

Prescribing the scientici content

8 7

Impact of IPCC assessments

1990 1995 2001 2007

SARFAR AR4

SR Emission scenarios

SR Technology Transfer

SR CO2 capture and

storage

SR Ozone and Climate

20052000

UNFCCC

agreed

Kyoto Protocol

agreed

TAR

Kyoto Protocol

in force

UNFCCC

in force

Doha

agreement

2010 2012 2015

SR Renawbles

SR Managing

risks on

Extreme Events

AR5

IPCC

created

Paris 2015

The organisation

Het schrijfproces

Publications

Main report:

•Assessment

•Technical summary

•Summary for policy makers

•Synthesis

Extra:

•Special assessments

•Technical publications

•Supporting material

Approval of the IPCC assessment

By approving the Summary forPolicy Makers, the assessmentis approved

Approval SPM Stockholm 2013

Approval process

• Panel consists of government representatives of 195 UN countries

• Official 6 UN languages: English, Arabic, Chinese, Spanish, French, en Russian

• All countries have speaking rights by interventions or bynotes

• There are observers (zoals as the EU Commisson , WMO, WHO, UNESCO, FAO, World bank, etc.), but without speaking rightt. They can ask for speaking time

Line by line

•The SPM is approved line by line

•Conflicts can be solved through (in)formal groups(countriesand authors)

•Authors always have the last word

• Interventions: – upon request by raising your flag and wait for your turn– by motions through notes submitted to the board

• Intervention strategy: – let other countries make your intervention– form coalitions for a joined intervention– persuade dissenters off-line

• Discussion with science panel (authors) is

not allowed during formal plenary

• Text changes can only formally be approved

after the authors approval

Approval session rules

Approval process

• Text approval by consensus

• Handling of conflicts:

✓ In small groups during the plenary

✓ In a larger group in a separated room (informal consultation)

✓ In formel contact groups (with chair and secretary)

• Sessions within UN translator timeslots

• Exceeding timeslots: the panel must agree upon English as the formal language

• Nights-long sessions .....

If was painfull from the start

Monday: 15:00

Discussion about credibility of climate science:

model projections: ‘assumptions’

The very first conclusionafter day 1 not even approved

Tuesday: 10:00

This was the start of a 3-day long difficult discussion

Time pressure is extremely high

Day 3Day2 Day 4

WG1, Stockholm

September 2013

SyR, Copenhagen

Oktober 2014

Sometimes delegations complicatethe text

Was:

Is geworden:

Before approval

After approval

Sometimes delegations simplify the text

Before approval

After approval

Approval SPM WGIII Berlin: seperated figures toremove causiality

Approval SPM WGIII Berlincomplete figures where removed from the SPM

2500

3000

3500

OECD 1990

Economies in Transition

Asia

Latin America

Middle East and Africa

CO

2em

issio

n f

ossil

fuels

and land u

se (

Gt)

Political tensions

• The OPEC countries, Russia and Baltic States try to weaken the conclusions

• China is very critical with anti-Western attitude

• Germany pushes its sustainable energy political agenda

• US is tight by national political constraints and geo-political interests

• Developing countries and small Island states try to strengthen the conclusions for more investments

Affects the formulation of the conclusions

Saudi Arabia - ‘This is inflammatory language written to give Reuters a headline’

Bolivia - ‘When a change is suggested by the South it is ignored but when the same suggestion is made by a country from the North it is accepted’

Venezuela – ‘It is unfair to make decisions in contact groups and expect the plenary to accept them without question’

Challenges for policy assessmentsWish Pitfall

Sound scientific quality Internal process(group thinking)

political ownership Political prescriptive

Transparant Public engagement

Chaotic and unreliable

Policy relevant Policy prescriptive(alarmism)

Students involved

Vera Jim (l) en Thomas (r)