credit suisse global industrials conference...dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume...

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Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference James A. Squires President December 4, 2013 1

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Page 1: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference

James A. Squires

President

December 4, 2013

1

Page 2: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Norfolk Southern Update

Responses to Traffic Changes

Business Outlook

Fourth Quarter Update

General Merchandise Trends

Long Term Productivity Opportunities

Capital Allocation

2

Page 3: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

23% 23% 20% 19%

34% 32% 33% 33%

43% 45%

47% 48%

2010 2011 2012 YTDSep13

Coal GM Intermodal

Traffic Volume Changes Percentage of Total Volumes

3

Page 4: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

-4%

2%

6%

3%

-9%

-1%

0%

-3%

Volume Train Starts

Operating Efficiencies First Nine Months 2013 vs. 2012

4

Coal Gen Merch Intermodal Total

Page 5: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

5

-10%

-10%

-1%

6%

1%

Train and Engine Service Overtime

Re-Crews

Equipment Rents (Velocity Driven)

Carloads/Units per Locomotives in Service

Gross Ton Miles per Gallon

Year-Over-Year Percent Improvement

Operating Efficiencies First Nine Months 2013 vs. 2012

Page 6: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Norfolk Southern Update

Responses to Traffic Changes

Business Outlook

Fourth Quarter Update

General Merchandise Trends

Long Term Productivity Opportunities

Capital Allocation

6

Page 7: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

7

Business Outlook

• Utility coal impacted by

reduced demand for

electricity, competition

from natural gas and

higher stockpiles in the

South

• Soft domestic

metallurgical market to

support steel production

• Weak demand in

European market for both

met and steam coal

• Excess global supply and

weaker Australian dollar

Coal

Page 8: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

8

Business Outlook

• Utility coal impacted by

reduced demand for

electricity, competition

from natural gas and

higher stockpiles in the

South

• Soft domestic

metallurgical market to

support steel production

• Weak demand in

European market for both

met and steam coal

• Excess global supply and

weaker Australian dollar

• Continued opportunities

for highway conversion

• New Intermodal service

lanes ahead as new

corridor terminals open

• Growth with

International shipping

partners

• Greer, SC Inland Port –

Q4

Coal

Intermodal

Page 9: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

9

Business Outlook

• Utility coal impacted by

reduced demand for

electricity, competition

from natural gas and

higher stockpiles in the

South

• Soft domestic

metallurgical market to

support steel production

• Weak demand in

European market for both

met and steam coal

• Excess global supply and

weaker Australian dollar

• Continued opportunities

for highway conversion

• New Intermodal service

lanes ahead as new

corridor terminals open

• Growth with

International shipping

partners

• Greer, SC Inland Port –

Q4

Coal

Intermodal

Merchandise

• Project growth in crude

oil, plastics for housing

and automotive and

increased volume for

shale related liquid

petroleum gases

• Gains in steel, frac sand

• Continued automotive

growth

• Favorable corn and

soybean crop for 2013-

2014 with export potential

• Improved housing &

related construction

materials market

Page 10: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Norfolk Southern Update

Responses to Traffic Changes

Business Outlook

Fourth Quarter Update

General Merchandise Trends

Long Term Productivity Opportunities

Capital Allocation

10

Page 11: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

1,242.1 1,314.6

2012 2013

Units (000)

Current Railway Volume Fourth Quarter through Week 48 (November 30, 2013)

11

Total Volume: 1,314,600 units, up 6%

24%

14%

10%

7%

6%

2%

(5%)

Change in Units

4QTD13 vs. 2012

Chemicals

Automotive

Agriculture

Intermodal

MetCon

Paper

Coal

Page 12: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Train Speed 1Q10 – 4QTD13

19.0

20.0

21.0

22.0

23.0

24.0

25.0

Mile

s p

er

Ho

ur

12

Better

Page 13: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Terminal Dwell 1Q10 – 4QTD13

20.0

21.0

22.0

23.0

24.0

25.0

26.0

27.0

Ho

urs

13

Better

Page 14: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Norfolk Southern Update

Responses to Traffic Changes

Business Outlook

Fourth Quarter Update

General Merchandise Trends

Long Term Productivity Opportunities

Capital Allocation

14

Page 15: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Continued Strength in Automotive

• NSC Automotive volume up 6% YTD

• North American vehicle production

forecasted at 16.5 million units for

2013, up 4% vs. last year

• Average vehicle age at all-time high

Source: Ward’s, Polk 15

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

US Vehicle Sales (M)

Vehicle Age (yrs.)

U.S. Vehicle Age vs. Sales

Page 16: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Merchandise Network Automotive Facilities

16

Atlanta

Charlotte

Chicago

Columbus

Detroit

Savannah

Miami

Cincinnati

Harrisburg

Norfolk

New Orleans

Memphis

Dallas

Jacksonville

Charleston

Lexington

Kansas City St Louis

Louisville

Baltimore

Toledo Cleveland

Pittsburgh

Ayer Albany Buffalo

Titusville

NY/NJ

Philadelphia

Birmingham

Meridian

Chattanooga

NS Automotive Network NS Automotive Network and Haulage

26 Assembly Plants

Assembly Plants on Short Line

connecting with NS

Ft. Wayne

Page 17: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Source: EIA, Bentek, Industry Sources, Bloomberg

Permian Current: 1.3M

Projected: 1.9M-2.3M

$84 Williston

$101 WTI

$69 WCS

$109 Brent

Prices represent October 2013 averages ($/bbl)

Projected 2020 daily production levels (bbl) Oil Sands Current: 1.8M

Projected: 3.2M-4.8M Williston Basin

Current: 980K

Projected: 1.3M-2.1M

Niobrara Current:

280K

Projected: 330K-765K

Eagle Ford Current: 1.3M

Projected: 1.4M-1.8M

Utica Current: 35K

Projected: 100K-118K

$103 LLS

$105 ANS

Crude Oil Market Dynamics Domestic Production Growth Driving Interior Oil to Coasts

Page 18: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

North American Crude Oil Pipelines NS Markets Politically and Topographically Isolated from Pipeline Connectivity

US Rail

Network

Page 19: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Supply Chain Routing East Coast Options Include NS “Crude Corridor”

NS has the shortest, most direct route to East Coast

Proven transit times of 36-40 hours on NS Crude Corridor

Page 20: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

NS Chicago to the East Coast Ample Corridor Capacity to Destination

87% of the Crude Corridor Operates Below 80% Capacity

NS Capacity Factor Across Crude Corridor by Miles

< 80%

< 85%

Page 21: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Norfolk Southern Update

Responses to Traffic Changes

Business Outlook

Fourth Quarter Update

General Merchandise Trends

Long Term Productivity Opportunities

Capital Allocation

21

Page 22: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Roanoke Hump Closure

Roanoke

Atlanta

Norfolk

Charleston

Philadelphia Columbus

Page 23: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Sheffield, AL

Bellevue Yard Expansion

Bellevue, OH

Allentown, PA

Macon, GA

Birmingham, AL

Enola, PA

Elkhart, IN

Conway, PA

Linwood, NC Chattanooga, TN Knoxville, TN

Page 24: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Bellevue Yard Expansion

Page 25: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

UTCS - Movement Planner

10 of 11 Divisions on Base System

4 of 11 Divisions on

Movement Planner with remaining in 2013-14

Realizing benefits in

velocity, productivity, and schedule adherence

Page 26: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Right-sizing the workforce

Enabled by technology

Enabled by better coordination

Maintain high network velocity and customer service

Expect to exceed $100M in productivity gains in 2013

Productivity Initiatives

Page 27: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Norfolk Southern Update

Responses to Traffic Changes

Business Outlook

Fourth Quarter Update

General Merchandise Trends

Long Term Productivity Opportunities

Capital Allocation

27

Page 28: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Budget

$1,558 $1,299

$1,470

$2,160 $2,241 $2,008

Capital Expenditures ($ millions)

21

28

Page 29: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013YTD

$2,715

$1,860

$2,714

$3,227 $3,065

$2,404

$1,558 $1,299

$1,470

$2,160 $2,241

$1,470

Cash from Operations Capital Expenditures

Cash From Ops and Capital Expenditures ($ millions)

21

29

Page 30: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$0.30 $0.36 $0.48

$0.68

$0.96

$1.22 $1.36 $1.40

$1.66

$1.94 $2.04

Annual Dividend Per Share

Compound annual

growth rate of 21% for

2003 through 2013

+15% +20% +33% +42% +41% +27% +11% +3% +19% +5%

30

Page 31: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

Balanced Cash Flow Utilization 2006 through 3Q 2013

Dividends Share Repurchases Capital Expenditures

$12.5 Billion $11.9 Billion*

$8.1 Billion

$3.8 Billion

* See reconciliation of Total Shareholder Distributions to GAAP posted on our website, www.nscorp.com.

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Page 32: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference...Dec 04, 2013  · and automotive and increased volume for shale related liquid petroleum gases • Gains in steel, frac sand • Continued

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Thank You