credit suisse global industrials conference...dec 04, 2013 · and automotive and increased volume...
TRANSCRIPT
Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference
James A. Squires
President
December 4, 2013
1
Norfolk Southern Update
Responses to Traffic Changes
Business Outlook
Fourth Quarter Update
General Merchandise Trends
Long Term Productivity Opportunities
Capital Allocation
2
23% 23% 20% 19%
34% 32% 33% 33%
43% 45%
47% 48%
2010 2011 2012 YTDSep13
Coal GM Intermodal
Traffic Volume Changes Percentage of Total Volumes
3
-4%
2%
6%
3%
-9%
-1%
0%
-3%
Volume Train Starts
Operating Efficiencies First Nine Months 2013 vs. 2012
4
Coal Gen Merch Intermodal Total
5
-10%
-10%
-1%
6%
1%
Train and Engine Service Overtime
Re-Crews
Equipment Rents (Velocity Driven)
Carloads/Units per Locomotives in Service
Gross Ton Miles per Gallon
Year-Over-Year Percent Improvement
Operating Efficiencies First Nine Months 2013 vs. 2012
Norfolk Southern Update
Responses to Traffic Changes
Business Outlook
Fourth Quarter Update
General Merchandise Trends
Long Term Productivity Opportunities
Capital Allocation
6
7
Business Outlook
• Utility coal impacted by
reduced demand for
electricity, competition
from natural gas and
higher stockpiles in the
South
• Soft domestic
metallurgical market to
support steel production
• Weak demand in
European market for both
met and steam coal
• Excess global supply and
weaker Australian dollar
Coal
8
Business Outlook
• Utility coal impacted by
reduced demand for
electricity, competition
from natural gas and
higher stockpiles in the
South
• Soft domestic
metallurgical market to
support steel production
• Weak demand in
European market for both
met and steam coal
• Excess global supply and
weaker Australian dollar
• Continued opportunities
for highway conversion
• New Intermodal service
lanes ahead as new
corridor terminals open
• Growth with
International shipping
partners
• Greer, SC Inland Port –
Q4
Coal
Intermodal
9
Business Outlook
• Utility coal impacted by
reduced demand for
electricity, competition
from natural gas and
higher stockpiles in the
South
• Soft domestic
metallurgical market to
support steel production
• Weak demand in
European market for both
met and steam coal
• Excess global supply and
weaker Australian dollar
• Continued opportunities
for highway conversion
• New Intermodal service
lanes ahead as new
corridor terminals open
• Growth with
International shipping
partners
• Greer, SC Inland Port –
Q4
Coal
Intermodal
Merchandise
• Project growth in crude
oil, plastics for housing
and automotive and
increased volume for
shale related liquid
petroleum gases
• Gains in steel, frac sand
• Continued automotive
growth
• Favorable corn and
soybean crop for 2013-
2014 with export potential
• Improved housing &
related construction
materials market
Norfolk Southern Update
Responses to Traffic Changes
Business Outlook
Fourth Quarter Update
General Merchandise Trends
Long Term Productivity Opportunities
Capital Allocation
10
1,242.1 1,314.6
2012 2013
Units (000)
Current Railway Volume Fourth Quarter through Week 48 (November 30, 2013)
11
Total Volume: 1,314,600 units, up 6%
24%
14%
10%
7%
6%
2%
(5%)
Change in Units
4QTD13 vs. 2012
Chemicals
Automotive
Agriculture
Intermodal
MetCon
Paper
Coal
Train Speed 1Q10 – 4QTD13
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
Mile
s p
er
Ho
ur
12
Better
Terminal Dwell 1Q10 – 4QTD13
20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
Ho
urs
13
Better
Norfolk Southern Update
Responses to Traffic Changes
Business Outlook
Fourth Quarter Update
General Merchandise Trends
Long Term Productivity Opportunities
Capital Allocation
14
Continued Strength in Automotive
• NSC Automotive volume up 6% YTD
• North American vehicle production
forecasted at 16.5 million units for
2013, up 4% vs. last year
• Average vehicle age at all-time high
Source: Ward’s, Polk 15
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8
10
12
14
16
18
20
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
US Vehicle Sales (M)
Vehicle Age (yrs.)
U.S. Vehicle Age vs. Sales
Merchandise Network Automotive Facilities
16
Atlanta
Charlotte
Chicago
Columbus
Detroit
Savannah
Miami
Cincinnati
Harrisburg
Norfolk
New Orleans
Memphis
Dallas
Jacksonville
Charleston
Lexington
Kansas City St Louis
Louisville
Baltimore
Toledo Cleveland
Pittsburgh
Ayer Albany Buffalo
Titusville
NY/NJ
Philadelphia
Birmingham
Meridian
Chattanooga
NS Automotive Network NS Automotive Network and Haulage
26 Assembly Plants
Assembly Plants on Short Line
connecting with NS
Ft. Wayne
Source: EIA, Bentek, Industry Sources, Bloomberg
Permian Current: 1.3M
Projected: 1.9M-2.3M
$84 Williston
$101 WTI
$69 WCS
$109 Brent
Prices represent October 2013 averages ($/bbl)
Projected 2020 daily production levels (bbl) Oil Sands Current: 1.8M
Projected: 3.2M-4.8M Williston Basin
Current: 980K
Projected: 1.3M-2.1M
Niobrara Current:
280K
Projected: 330K-765K
Eagle Ford Current: 1.3M
Projected: 1.4M-1.8M
Utica Current: 35K
Projected: 100K-118K
$103 LLS
$105 ANS
Crude Oil Market Dynamics Domestic Production Growth Driving Interior Oil to Coasts
North American Crude Oil Pipelines NS Markets Politically and Topographically Isolated from Pipeline Connectivity
US Rail
Network
Supply Chain Routing East Coast Options Include NS “Crude Corridor”
NS has the shortest, most direct route to East Coast
Proven transit times of 36-40 hours on NS Crude Corridor
NS Chicago to the East Coast Ample Corridor Capacity to Destination
87% of the Crude Corridor Operates Below 80% Capacity
NS Capacity Factor Across Crude Corridor by Miles
< 80%
< 85%
Norfolk Southern Update
Responses to Traffic Changes
Business Outlook
Fourth Quarter Update
General Merchandise Trends
Long Term Productivity Opportunities
Capital Allocation
21
Roanoke Hump Closure
Roanoke
Atlanta
Norfolk
Charleston
Philadelphia Columbus
Sheffield, AL
Bellevue Yard Expansion
Bellevue, OH
Allentown, PA
Macon, GA
Birmingham, AL
Enola, PA
Elkhart, IN
Conway, PA
Linwood, NC Chattanooga, TN Knoxville, TN
Bellevue Yard Expansion
UTCS - Movement Planner
10 of 11 Divisions on Base System
4 of 11 Divisions on
Movement Planner with remaining in 2013-14
Realizing benefits in
velocity, productivity, and schedule adherence
Right-sizing the workforce
Enabled by technology
Enabled by better coordination
Maintain high network velocity and customer service
Expect to exceed $100M in productivity gains in 2013
Productivity Initiatives
Norfolk Southern Update
Responses to Traffic Changes
Business Outlook
Fourth Quarter Update
General Merchandise Trends
Long Term Productivity Opportunities
Capital Allocation
27
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Budget
$1,558 $1,299
$1,470
$2,160 $2,241 $2,008
Capital Expenditures ($ millions)
21
28
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013YTD
$2,715
$1,860
$2,714
$3,227 $3,065
$2,404
$1,558 $1,299
$1,470
$2,160 $2,241
$1,470
Cash from Operations Capital Expenditures
Cash From Ops and Capital Expenditures ($ millions)
21
29
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$0.30 $0.36 $0.48
$0.68
$0.96
$1.22 $1.36 $1.40
$1.66
$1.94 $2.04
Annual Dividend Per Share
Compound annual
growth rate of 21% for
2003 through 2013
+15% +20% +33% +42% +41% +27% +11% +3% +19% +5%
30
Balanced Cash Flow Utilization 2006 through 3Q 2013
Dividends Share Repurchases Capital Expenditures
$12.5 Billion $11.9 Billion*
$8.1 Billion
$3.8 Billion
* See reconciliation of Total Shareholder Distributions to GAAP posted on our website, www.nscorp.com.
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Thank You