credit suisse monthly survey of real estate agents jan. 2013 results

CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES (USA) LLC

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, INFORMATION ON TRADE ALERTS, ANALYST MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit-suisse.com/ researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

February 2013

Daniel Oppenheim, CFA Homebuilding & Building Products 212-325-5726 [email protected] Michael Dahl 212-325-5882 [email protected] William Alexis 212-538-3992 [email protected]

Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents – January 2013

January ‘13 Slide 2

January Survey of Real Estate Agents: A Surge in Demand at the Start of 2013

• Meaningful step-up in traffic and pricing in January: Our January Survey of Real Estate Agents brought exceptionally good news at the start of the year, as agents saw an increase in traffic and upward pressure on home prices due to the lack of inventory. One year ago, in January 2012, we noticed the shift toward a confidence-driven market, as buyers had fewer worries about their personal employment and overall economic situation, and also decreased concerns about additional declines in home prices. However, at the start of 2013, we see even more buyer urgency, as buyers contend with the very limited available inventory of homes for sale. Most noticeable this month is the sharp increase in both traffic and pricing relative to December.

• Home prices leap higher in January: Our home price index broke out of its recent range, reaching a level of 74.6 in January, up markedly from 68.3 in December. Home prices increased in nearly all of markets we survey, with Atlanta and New York as the most prominent laggards. Continuing the recent trends, we saw the strongest pricing trends in markets in the west, but we also saw much better pricing trends in Texas as well.

• Traffic moves higher in January, after relative stability at end of 2012. Our traffic index increased to 59.0 in January, up from 52.0 in December. We had seen a slight improvement in our traffic index in December, after stable trends through much of the Fall. This seven-point increase is a strong sign at the start of the key Spring selling season. We saw improved traffic levels in the Southeast, Denver, and several Texas markets.

• Limited inventory continues to help pricing. With just over four months of inventory on a national basis, some of the best markets have less than two months of inventory (California markets). Our home listings (inventory) index held at 74.7 and well above a neutral level of 50, with readings at this level pointing to further declines in inventory, which will continue to support the rising home prices.

MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell

IndexAug-12 52.3 67.7 48.9 75.0 68.1Sep-12 50.1 68.7 46.3 71.3 66.7Oct-12 47.7 68.3 48.2 73.7 63.6Nov-12 49.0 66.4 46.7 74.0 63.3Dec-12 52.0 68.3 49.9 75.7 68.3Jan-13 59.0 74.6 52.4 74.7 71.5

Point Change 6.9 6.3 2.5 (1.0) 3.2

38%

42%

20%

Traffic Levels Versus Expectations

More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected

54%

12% 9%

40%

72%

39%

5%16%

52%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell

How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...

Increased Remained the same Decreased

Source: Credit Suisse


Table of Contents

Key Housing Markets: Key Housing Markets Continued: 4 Atlanta, Georgia 26 Orlando, Florida 5 Austin, Texas 27 Philadelphia-Southern New Jersey 6 Baltimore, Maryland 28 Phoenix, Arizona 7 Boston, Massachusetts 29 Portland, Oregon 8 Charleston, South Carolina 30 Raleigh, North Carolina 9 Charlotte, North Carolina 31 Richmond, Virginia

10 Chicago, Illinois 32 Sacramento, California 11 Cincinnati, Ohio 33 San Antonio, Texas 12 Columbus, Ohio 34 San Diego, California 13 Dallas, Texas 35 San Francisco, California 14 Denver, Colorado 36 Sarasota, Florida 15 Detroit, Michigan 37 Seattle, Washington 16 Fort Myers, Florida 38 St. Louis, Missouri 17 Houston, Texas 39 Tampa, Florida 18 Inland Empire (Riverside-San Bernardino), California 40 Tucson, Arizona 19 Jacksonville, Florida 41 Virginia Beach, Virginia 20 Las Vegas, Nevada 42 Washington, D.C. 21 Los Angeles, California 43 Wilmington, North Carolina 22 Miami, Florida Appendix: 23 Minneapolis, Minnesota 45 Historical Trends by Market 24 Nashville, Tennessee 50 Agent Recommendations 25 New York-Northern New Jersey 52 Survey Methodology


Atlanta, GA – Just Taking a Breather or Something More? Traffic Slips and Home Prices Fall in January

Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau

(9,146 single-family building permits in 2012, 5th largest market in the country)

Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Prices have been lowered.”

• “After Christmas blues and financial cliff crisis.”

• “Warmer than normal weather and end of holidays seems to have people back on track for purchasing homes. Owner occupants are concerned that interest rates may go up and they want to buy while rates are low.”

• “Supply shortages.”

• “We are seeing the beginning of the return of new home sales. Calls to broker about new home-presales are increasing.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index fell to 46 in January from 53 in

December, indicating traffic levels close to agents’ expectations. We’ll watch closely at the start of the spring selling season, especially given the decline in home prices.

• Home prices declined in January, as our home price index dropped to 36 from 56 in December, breaking a string of nine straight months of flat or rising prices.

• Inventory declined in January (our index jumped to 91 from 75), but some of this may be seasonal. It also took longer to sell a home, a potential negative for near term pricing trends.

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Point Change (7.9) (19.2) 1.7 15.9 (9.7)

18%

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18%

36%27%

36% 36%27%

45%

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Austin, TX – Strong Local Employment and Rising Rents Spur Continued Inflows to For-Sale Housing


(7,970 single-family permits in 2012, 7th largest market in the country)

Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Shortage of available housing, very low unemployment

rates, immigration into the area from other states and other areas of Texas seeking employment.”

• “There is less inventory and what I believe is pent up demand – a form of buyer kinetic energy. Rents are outrageous and still climbing and I see this as a driver for renters to become buyers.”

• “Good rates, good jobs, rising rents.”

• “Jobs, jobs. incoming transplants to the area.”

• “Getting interest but credit quality buyers getting rarer.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index increased to 57 in January from 53 in

December, indicating traffic levels above agents’ expectations for the 11th time in the past 13 months.

• Home prices increased further in January, as our home price index improved to 82 from 78 in December, the 10th straight month of rising prices.

• Home listings declined again and it took less time to sell a home, both positive indicators for near-term price trends.

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Point Change 4.0 4.0 4.0 (7.6) 3.1

36%

43%

21%



71%

14%7%

21%

57%

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Baltimore, MD – Weaker Traffic, but a Lack of Supply is Leading to Higher Prices



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “The lending requirement for credit score for lower income

is a big factor.”

• “Need lending help for the self-employed.”

• “Lenders do not share the rapid changes in the requirements for loans.”

• “No observed change from previous winter months.”

• “End of fiscal cliff concerns, optimism about 2013.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic fell to 33 in January from 39 in December, still

indicating traffic levels below agents’ expectations for this time of year. Tight lending criteria is a recurring theme, though some agents are more optimistic for 2013.

• Home prices edged higher in January, as our home price index improved to 56 from 50 in December, above a neutral 50.

• Prices appear headed for additional gains this spring, as inventory continues to trend lower (our index increased to 88 from 83) along with a shorter length of time needed to sell a home (our index increased to 72 from 67).

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IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change (5.6) 5.6 29.2 4.2 5.6

11%

45%

44%



11%0% 0%

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56%

0%

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Boston, MA – Solid Improvement in Demand and Home Prices Driven by Affordability and Tight Inventory



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Improving economy, continued low interest rates, dwindling

inventory.”

• “Seeing people coming out of rentals.”

• “Low rates, low inventory and more buyer confidence. buyers who were sitting on sidelines now jumping in.”

• “More cash buyers (investors) are entering the market.”

• “There is quite a bit of pent up demand.”

• “The agreement to continue the housing interest deduction, low interest rates, and low prices.”

Our Take: • Buyer traffic levels increased in January, as our buyer traffic

index improved to 61 from 50 in December, indicating traffic levels above agents’ expectations. Low rates and improving confidence are the key drivers.

• Home prices also increased for the third straight month, and the ninth of the past ten, as our home price index improved to 81 from 70 in December.

• Inventory continues to trend lower, and the time needed to sell a home is shrinking – both positives for home prices.

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Point Change 11.1 10.6 (7.7) (7.9) 9.1

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Charleston, SC – Buyers Staying on the Fence as Prices Tick Higher



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “People seem to be looking, but not committing.”

• “Low rates/price pick up.”

• “Buyers are trying to get the house before the price rises.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index dropped to 25 in January from 50 in

December, indicating lower traffic levels, below agents’ expectations for this time of year.

• Despite the lower traffic, home prices increased for the sixth straight month in January. Our home price index improved to 75 from 70 in December.

• The increase in inventory over the past two months could be a problem, combined with the weaker traffic, and lead to weaker pricing trends. Our home listings index dropped to 25 in January from 42 in December, below a neutral 50.

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Point Change (25.0) 5.0 10.0 (16.7) (4.2)

0%

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Charlotte, NC – Strong Trends in Buyer Traffic and Home Prices Seen Ahead of Spring Selling Season



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Low interest rates and good media reports are bringing out

eager buyers.”

• “Strong December followed by typical January lull. Buyers still hunting but inventory levels extremely low, down 35% from 2012.”

• “Prices, rates, and the fact that it appears bargains are no longer available.”

• “Still-low interest rates, perceived smaller inventory. Lenders are still the biggest hurdle.”

• “Pent-up demand and transfers.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index increased to 75 in January from 50 in

December, indicating traffic levels above agents’ (typically low) expectations for this time of year. Urgency seems to be increasing.

• Home prices increased for the sixth straight month in January, as our home price index improved to 85 from 72 in December. This nearly matches the all-time high of 89 seen in May ’06.

• Leading indicators point to further price gains. Our home listings index increased to 86, while our time to sell index increased to 75, indicating lower supply and less time to sell.

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Point Change 25.0 12.8 10.1 3.0 13.9

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Chicago, IL – Home Prices Rise in Our Survey for First Time Since Spring 2006



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Interest rates still attractive and good inventory is becoming

more scarce.”

• “Limited inventory, growing optimism about increasing values and the knowledge we eventually face increasing interest rates.”

• “There are a lot more qualified buyers out there than inventory. Anything decent and priced well is flying off the market.”

• “Buyers are starting to worry that the prices are going to start to go up so they are getting off the fence.”

Our Take: • Buyer traffic improved in January, as agents noted increasing

buyer urgency given the low rates and inventory. Our buyer traffic index increased to 61 from 46 in December, indicating traffic levels above agents’ expectations.

• Home prices increased in January, as our home price index improved to 62 from 45 in December. This is the first time our index has pointed to rising prices in Chicago since May ’06.

• Our home listings and time to sell indices both edged lower in January vs. December, but remained above neutral readings of 50 – a positive indicator for home price trends this spring.

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Point Change 14.2 17.4 0.0 (3.5) (3.3)

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Cincinnati, OH – Strengthening Confidence Driving Healthier Buyer Activity



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Not great but not bad either – I do expect a good market

this year. Consumer confidence seems to be strengthening.”

• “Lower inventory.”

• “Improved economy and the thought that we are past the bottom of the market.”

• “Renewed confidence.”

• “Unexpected. Other areas are saying business is brisk, but we aren’t seeing it.”

Our Take: • Buyer traffic remained above agents’ expectations in January,

as our buyer traffic index increased to 71 from 59 in December, led by improving consumer confidence in housing.

• Home prices trended higher for the fifth consecutive month, as our home price index edged up to 57 in January from 55 in December.

• Home prices should improve further in 2013, as agents are broadly noting declining inventory levels (our index jumped to 92 from 82) and less time needed to sell (our index improved to 71 from 68).

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Point Change 12.3 2.6 (12.1) 11.0 3.2

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Columbus, OH – Steadily Declining Length of Time Needed to Sell a Positive Indicator for Home Prices



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Still low inventory. Rates are still low.”

• “Partial solution to Fiscal Cliff. Could be a problem again if Congress doesn't sufficiently address debt issue.”

• “It's still the same as last month. I have several clients that want to invest in real estate. Some are looking for homes and some are wanting to add to their assets for income producing properties.”

• “It appears a little less tight lending criteria than 30 days before.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index was unchanged at 50 in January,

indicating traffic levels in-line with agents’ expectations for the third straight month. Agents noted seasonally slow traffic, but encouraging signs of buyer interest due to the strong affordability and low inventory levels.

• Home prices increased again, as our price index improved to 75 from 55 in December, driven by the tight inventory.

• Inventory continued to trend lower, as our index came in at 67 (above a neutral 50), while the time needed to sell declined for the 11th straight month, a positive for pricing.

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IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 0.0 20.5 15.0 (6.1) 24.2

16%

67%

17%



50%

17%

0%

50%

67%

33%

0%

17%

67%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%





Dallas, TX – Pricing Power Gaining Strength Ahead of Key Selling Season; Index at New High


(17,821 single-family permits in 2012, 2nd largest market in the country)

Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “We have bottomed in pricing and rates. In fact, both are

going up a little. People are ready to buy if they can qualify.”

• “With the holidays being over, I'm seeing a big increase in viewings. Investors are STARVING for houses. I'm getting multiple offers over list on even my worst homes.”

• “We are receiving multiple offers on any realistically priced home.”

• “Looooww inventory.”

• “Buyers feel the future is not so unpredictable – they see the economy getting better.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic slipped by two points to 56 in January from

58 in December, but indicates traffic levels remaining modestly above agents’ expectations (readings above 50).

• Price gains broadened out significantly in January, according to agents, as our home price index hit a new all-time high of 81 (up from 54 in December). We see this as a sign of increasing pricing power.

• Lower inventory levels (our home listings index increased to 75 from 72) and a shorter time to sell (our time to sell index increased to 66 from 64) point to higher prices ahead.

010203040506070

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change (2.1) 27.1 5.0 2.3 2.0

44%

25%

31%



63%

21% 25%38%

57%

19%

0%

21%

56%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%





Denver, CO – Prices Heading Higher and Builders are Taking Advantage of the Lack of Resale Supply



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Pent up buyer demand continues. Rental availability

remains low.”

• “We don't have enough inventory, because people are still upside down on their properties, but we are seeing a increase in appraisals.”

• “Pent up buyers looking in the $300-400k price range. New construction is on the upswing given low interest rates and low resale inventory.”

• “There are more and more buyers returning to the market, many are revisiting a discretionary move due to affordability.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index improved to 70 in January from 57 in

December, indicating higher traffic levels, above agents’ expectations for this time of year. A lack of supply is creating urgency, and homebuilders are capitalizing on this.

• Home prices strengthened ahead of the spring selling season, as our home price index jumped to 82 from 66 in December.

• Prices have now increased in 11 of the past 12 months, and the continued favorable trends in inventory and the time needed to sell a home (both indices measured 77 in January vs. a neutral 50) should lead to higher prices this spring.

01020304050607080

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

100

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 12.8 16.2 1.9 (16.4) 3.0

43%

54%

3%



64%

12%4%

36%

73%

39%

0%15%

57%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%





Detroit, MI – Trying to Climb Back Off of a Low Base



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “There are very few resale homes available so new

construction is needed.”

• “Buyers are still looking for bargains.”

• “Low interest rates are continuing to drive the buyers into the market hoping to get a good deal.”

• “Seasonal conditions and a lack of adequate inventory.”

• “Best 6 month period in 5 years.”

• “Prices are trying to increase but lenders seem to be digging in with tighter controls.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index edged up to 40 in January from 38 in

December, still indicating traffic levels below agents’ expectations (any reading below 50). However, many agents blamed the low volume on a lack of quality resale inventory rather than a lack of interest.

• Home prices continued to claw higher, as our home price index fell to 67 from 79 but remained well above a neutral level of 50.

• The lack of supply should support higher prices in coming months as well, as our home listings index improved to 87 from 79. The shorter time needed to sell a home is also a positive.

01020304050607080

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

100

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 2.5 (12.5) 19.8 7.5 (3.3)

7%

66%

27%



47%

0%

27%40%

79%

20%13% 21%

53%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





Ft. Myers, FL – Investors Help to Clear the Market and Drive Rebound in Home Prices



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Homebuyer traffic has remained level over the previous

month. Primary home buyers are investors and cash buyers.”

• “Demand is strong and it looks like it will continue in the coming months.”

• “Decreased inventory. Narrow margin between existing homes and new construction.”

• “Traffic is heavy and it is not looky-loos. Buyers are snapping up anything priced right. Especially after they miss one.”

• “Appraisals still lagging 3-4 months back in pricing.”

Our Take: • Traffic improved in January and met agents’ expectations for

this time of year, as our buyer traffic index increased to 47 from 29 in November. Traditional homebuyers are competing with heavy demand from investors.

• Home prices increased for the 15th consecutive month in January, as our home price index came in at 85. Strong investor demand is helping to clear and heal the market.

• Inventory levels continued to decline, as our listings index came in at 73, while the time needed to sell a home also improved, as our time to sell index edged up to 78.

0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

100

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 18.8 (0.7) (10.0) 1.1 2.5

16%

63%

21%



75%

40%

5%20%

40% 35%

5%20%

60%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%





Houston, TX – 2013 Kicks Off on a High Note with Sharply Higher Traffic and Growing Pricing Power


(28,568 single-family permits in 2012, largest market in the country)

Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “January has gotten off like gang busters. My buyers are

making full price and above offers on homes in the Inner Loop downtown area and maybe getting the home only 50 percent of the time. Low inventory, low interest rates and companies moving employees into Houston are creating unprecedented buyer demand.”

• “Booming relocation, very strong economy... 3.4 months of inventory lowest since 1999.”

• “Very LOW inventory.”

• “Rent increases are bringing buyers out.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index jumped to 62 in January from 50 in

December, pointing to higher traffic levels, above agents’ expectations. Agents credited the strong local economy, relocation demand and lack of inventory for the improvement.

• Our home price index reached its highest level since we began surveying Houston in 2005, rising to 83 from 79 in December, pointing to increasing breadth and strength of price increases.

• Prices have increased for eight straight months, and the tight supply conditions and shrinking time to sell should drive further gains in the coming months.

01020304050607080

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 11.9 3.9 1.1 (6.2) (0.7)

33%

57%

10%



67%

24%

0%

33%

62%

25%

0%14%

75%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%





Inland Empire, CA – Severe Lack of Inventory Leading to Bidding Wars, High Level of Urgency



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Restored confidence. I'm seeing ‘froth’ in the market

(prices up 20% this year) and I believe we may see a slight correction in prices soon.”

• “Backlog of investor and owner occupy buyers unable to purchase a home due to a severe lack of inventory.”

• “Affordability is driving demand coupled with historically low interest rates.”

• “Historic low inventories, lots of cash investor buyers.”

• “Short of inventory of houses on the market. Prices have gone up because buyers are competing with each other.”

Our Take: • Buyer traffic increased at the beginning of 2013, as our buyer

traffic index improved to 71 from 67 in December. Agents noted a high sense of urgency due to the rising home prices and lack of supply.

• Home prices continued to push higher in January, as our home price index improved to 83 from 78 in December. Our price index has exceeded 80 in six of the past eight months.

• Nearly every agent surveyed noted lower inventory in January (and a majority said it took less time to sell a home), which will likely lead to further increases in home prices.

01020304050607080

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

100

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 4.2 5.2 (14.5) 5.2 (9.2)

50%42%

8%



67%

18% 17%

33%

73%

25%

0%9%

58%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%





Jacksonville, FL – Buyers Becoming More Confident, Looking to Take Advantage of Affordability


(4,582 single-family permits in 2012, 23rd largest market in the country)

Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “More positive atmosphere.”

• “Values are starting to stabilize.”

• “Interest rates moving up a bit led to better than expected traffic.”

• “On homes priced correctly, the appraisals come in right on the money.”

• “Lenders are driving the buyers crazy with so many requests, so frequently.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index jumped to 75 in January from 56 in

December, indicating better traffic sequentially and overall levels above agents’ expectations. Agents cited affordability and a desire to buy while the rates and prices are still low.

• Home prices increased again in January, as our home price index was unchanged at 75, well above a neutral level of 50. Prices have now increased for five straight months.

• Declining inventory levels (our index improved to 75 from 63) and a shorter time to sell (our index was unchanged at 63) should lead to further home price improvement.

01020304050607080

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


01020304050607080

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 18.8 0.0 4.5 12.5 0.0

50%50%

0%Traffic Levels Versus Expectations


50%

29%13%

50%

71%

50%

0% 0%

38%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%





Las Vegas, NV – Builders are Re-Taking Share and Raising Prices as Buyers Find Little Existing Inventory



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Buyers are in a panic about buying, but no inventory.

Builders are increasing prices, and utilizing their mortgage presence.”

• “Folks are scrambling to take advantage of the low pricing.”

• “The lack of available re-sales are driving the majority of non-investor buyers to new homes.”

• “There appears to be momentum in demand for homes, however restricted inventory makes that demand difficult to estimate. Multiple offers do signal strong demand.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index edged down to 62 in January from 63 in

December, but still points to traffic levels above agents’ expectations. A shortage of inventory remains the key theme, with buyer urgency rising along with home prices and buyers seeking out new home communities.

• Nearly every agent surveyed noted higher home prices in January, as our home price index increased to 98 from 93, the highest reading since our survey began in 2005.

• Leading indicators such as our home listings index and time to sell index remain favorably, pointing to higher prices ahead.

0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change (1.4) 4.3 0.5 11.9 5.2

33%

57%

10%



95%

14%5%5%

57%

33%

0%

29%

62%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





Los Angeles, CA – Buyers Getting Exasperated Trying to Compete with Investors for Scarce Inventory


(4,921 single-family permits in 2012, 22nd largest market in the country)

Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “There are new listings coming up but we still are so low in

inventory that there are multiple buyers for each property as long as it is priced within a realistic range.”

• “The buyers are at a high frustration level due to the lack of inventory. Some have stopped looking.”

• “Buyers have been out in droves for months with low inventory and record low interest rates plus a lot of all cash buyers.”

• “Improved job market. Low interest rates.”

• “Frenzy buying with not enough inventory.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index edged down to 67 in January from 68 in

December, still indicating healthy traffic levels above agents’ expectations. Urgency remains high as buyers want to take advantage of the high affordability, but agents say some buyers are getting fed up trying to compete over such limited supply.

• Home prices increased further in January, as our home price index came in at 84, the seventh straight month above 80.

• There are few signs of inventory increasing fast enough to match current demand levels (our home listings index came in at 86), which will likely drive prices even higher this spring.

01020304050607080

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

100

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change (1.3) (4.1) 2.4 (7.3) (1.6)

47%

40%

13%



75%

0% 3%18%

81%

38%

7%19%

59%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





Nashville, TN – Buyers Gain a More Positive Outlook on Housing and the Economy



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “People are buying, anticipating that rates will increase.”

• “Buyer sentiment has been improving. There are more jobs, and people see positive news about housing in the media.”

• “The local economy has been getting better. The job market is stable and interest rates are low.”

• “Several high foreclosure areas are seeing inventories drop because of strong activity from investors.”

Our Take: • Traffic remained above agents’ expectations in January. Our

traffic index came in at 61, unchanged from our reading in December. Agents indicated that buyers felt increasingly comfortable about the direction of the housing market and the economy.

• Home prices were higher in January, as our home price index increased to 78 from 50 in December.

• Prices have been choppy in recent months. However, both inventories and the time needed to sell a home declined in January. These are positives for future pricing trends.

01020304050607080

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 0.0 27.8 13.2 0.0 5.6

22%

78%



56%

0%11%

44%

63%

33%

0%

38%

56%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%





Miami, FL – Investors Continue to Dominate, but Traditional Buyers are Getting in on the Action Too


(5,048 single-family permits in 2012, 21st largest market in the country)

Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Prices are increasing fast and there is a rush to buy.”

• “Affordable prices, investment opportunities.”

• “Foreign buyers, out of town-ers, investors and local demand picking up.”

• “Value gains due controlled release of REO's. Perception the market has stabilized with media support. Low interest rates.”

• “Inventory is very low. What is available is higher priced and lower quality than it has been during the past year and buyers are putting on the brakes.”


December, pointing to levels above agents’ expectations. Agents noted the recent rise in home prices coupled with low levels of listed inventory are spurring greater buyer urgency.

• Home prices increased further in January, as our home price index improved to 93 from 88 in December, matching the highest level we’ve seen in our survey (spring 2005).

• Inventory levels continued to decline, as our listings index came in at 80, while it also took less time to sell as our index improved to 79. Both are positive leading indicators for pricing.

01020304050607080

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

100

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 5.0 4.5 4.1 (5.9) 9.3

47%

27%

26%



85%

3% 9%15%

93%

26%

0% 3%

66%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





Minneapolis, MN – Traffic Bounces Back in January as Buyers Don’t Want to Miss Out on Deals



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Low inventory, pent up buyers looking for inventory. Homes

selling before they hit the market.”

• “New construction and existing sales in most markets are seeing price increases. Supply levels are at historic lows.”

• “More confidence in the market and lack of supply. Buyers realize they need to be active and looking because there just isn't much out there.”

• “Low interest rates and a lack of inventory are bringing buyers out to get first looks.”

• “Confidence in economy and interest rates.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index rebounded to 57 in January from 40 in

December, indicating traffic levels above agents’ expectations. Agents noted a release of pent up demand as buyers want to take advantage of the low rates and see limited supply.

• Home prices increased for the 10th straight month in January, as our home price index improved to 83 from 79 in December.

• Our home listings index came in at 85, above a neutral 50, pointing to further inventory declines. Meanwhile, it also took less time to sell a home – a positive for pricing trends – as our time to sell index came in at 82 (above a neutral 50).

01020304050607080

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 17.9 4.8 (6.7) (3.4) 1.0

35%

44%

21%



69%

11% 6%

28%

80%

25%

3% 9%

69%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





New York-Northern NJ – Buyers Jumping off the Fence, Looking to Lock Down Low Interest Rates



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “There is a perception of a stabilizing market. Buyers also

want to take advantage of interest rates. The buzz is that they will start to move higher soon.”

• “I don’t have enough inventory to show my clients. There are multiple bids on old inventory because there aren’t a lot of new listings.”

• “I think buyers are tired of waiting and know that interest rates are amazingly low.”

• “We still have buyers out there who are concerned about the economy and their job security.”


December, suggesting traffic met agents’ expectations (first time since March 2012). The local economy has remained a headwind in the region, though agents indicated that some buyers are tired of waiting and willing to take the risk.

• Home prices were flat in January, as our price index came in at 48 from 42 in December (first time since February 2006).

• Inventories continued to decline in January, while the time to sell was flat. With better traffic, we would expect these dynamics to lead to rising prices in the coming months.

010203040506070

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 13.2 6.4 (1.1) (0.4) 11.7

31%

29%

40%



19%8%

31%

58%78%

33%23% 15%

35%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





Orlando, FL – Not Buying into Recovery Just Yet, Low Inventory Prevents Interested Parties from Buying



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Several clients tell me they’re still afraid of the market. Even

with rising prices, they don’t have the confidence to start looking.”

• “There are some buyers in the market, but inventory is extremely tight. The typical buyer is frustrated because it is difficult to win bids against all cash investors.”

• “There are more homebuilder subdivisions out there with some good incentives for buyers. There are also still buyers out there looking for a deal.”

Our Take: • Traffic missed agents’ expectations again in January, as our

buyer traffic index came in at 35 from 36 in December. Traffic has struggled to improve amidst buyers’ economic concerns and a lack of inventory.

• Home prices continued to improve in January, as our home price index came in at 73 from 80 in December.

• Prices continue to move higher in spite of slow traffic levels, as inventories and the time needed to sell a home fall further. This is a positive for future pricing, though traffic levels continue to lag.

010203040506070

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change (1.1) (6.9) 13.8 (13.6) (14.1)

8%

54%

38%



62%

15%8%

23%

62%

46%

15%23%

46%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%





Philadelphia, PA-Southern NJ – Traffic Higher in January; Buyers Ready to Capitalize on Low Rates



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “The elections are over. Buyers know what to expect for the

next 4 years and feel more secure. They are ready to enter the market.”

• “I think buyers realize that interest rates won’t remain this low forever and want to buy a house now.”

• “Less people are scared of the economy. We think we’re seeing the release of some pent up demand.”

• “Rates are low and inventories are declining. There is urgency out in the market right now.”

Our Take: • Buyer traffic exceeded expectations in January. Our traffic

index improved to 64 from 55 in December (first time since March 2012). Low inventories and very favorable affordability have worked to steadily drive traffic higher in recent months.

• Home prices were flat, as our home price index came in at 47 from 48 in December.

• Prices have been stable for the past two months, as inventories and the time to sell decline. We would expect prices to rise in the coming months with further declines in these two metrics, especially if traffic remains strong.

010203040506070

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 9.3 (0.5) 12.1 8.8 0.3

44%

39%

17%



17%7%

22%

61%

47%

28%22%

47% 50%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%





Phoenix, AZ – Lack of Inventory Starting to Hurt Traffic, Agents Looking for Homes to Sell


(11,859 single-family building permits in 2012, 3rd largest market in the country)

Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “There has been a lack of traffic because there just isn’t

enough inventory.”

• “Buyers are trying to capture the last of the sub-$100K homes on the market.”

• “We’ve actually seen less activity from investors and more from traditional owner-occupiers. We’ve seen the same overall level of demand over the past 6 months.”

• “We’ve seen appraisals start to creep higher and sometimes meet the purchase price.”

Our Take: • Traffic was slightly higher, but just missed agents’

expectations, as our traffic index came in at 43 from 40 in December. Agents indicated that buyers are interested, but need more inventory to choose from.

• Home prices continued to increase. Our home price index improved to 76 from 78 in December.

• Inventories were unchanged and the time to sell edged lower in January, which is a positive for pricing. However, both metrics have been volatile in recent months, and could indicate some moderation in the rate of price appreciation.

0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

100

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 3.0 (2.3) 8.3 6.7 16.0

22%

41%

37%



59%

20% 22%33%

60%

44%

7%20%

33%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%





Portland, OR – Positive Sentiment and Low Inventories Work to Drive Urgency and Traffic Higher



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “The news is positive so buyers are jumping in before prices

rise too much.”

• “Buyers are worried mortgage rates might increase. They want to secure rates before they miss out.”

• “Inventory is very low and this has helped create urgency, more traffic and a willingness to bid higher for homes.”

Our Take: • Buyer traffic edged higher in January to 58 from 54 in

December, indicating traffic above agents’ expectations. Buyers were said to feel better about the economy, while looking to capitalize on low rates and low prices.

• Home prices moved higher, as our home price index increased to 83 from 75 in December.

• We think prices are likely to improve further. Inventories declined in January, as did the time needed to sell a home. These are both positives for future pricing trends.

01020304050607080

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 3.3 7.5 1.7 (0.8) (0.8)

35%

45%

20%



65%

10% 5%

35%

85%

25%

0% 5%

70%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





Raleigh, NC – Buyers Looking for Better Job Security before Entering the Market



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Credit has tightened recently, especially for non-cash

investors. This has negatively affected traffic.”

• “Clients’ credit issues are hampering them down.”

• “There is less industry coming into the area. People are still out of work.”

Our Take: • Traffic edged higher, but just missed expectations in January,

as our buyer traffic index came in at 43 from 40 in December. Good credit remains an issue in Raleigh, while a lack of job security has also deterred buyers from beginning their search.

• Home prices were unchanged in January. Our home price index came in at 50 from 60 in December.

• Inventories and the time needed to sell declined in January, both positives for future pricing. However, with lower traffic levels we think pricing could remain choppy in the coming months.

010203040506070

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

100

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 2.9 (10.0) 20.8 11.4 (2.9)

28%

29%

43%



14%0%

14%

71%83%

57%

14% 17%29%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





Richmond, VA – Traffic Jumps in January on Increased Consumer Confidence


(2,827 single-family building permits in 2012, 41st largest market in the country)

Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Consumer confidence has been steadily improving.”

• “Homes prices are still at exceptional levels. Interest rates are as well. Plus, people feel better about the economy.”

• “There is pent up demand. Rates and prices are very low. Buyers feel they have to act now due to possible price and/or rate increases.”

• “News reports are increasingly positive. Buyers see this and feel better about entering the market.”

Our Take: • Buyer traffic improved further in January, as our buyer traffic

index jumped to 88 from 50 in December, exceeding agents’ expectations. Buyers were said to have exhibited better confidence in January, a positive for the spring selling season.

• Home prices were higher, as our price index increased to 75 from 33 in December.

• Inventories and the time to sell both declined in January, a positive for future pricing. However, pricing trends have remained choppy and we wouldn’t be surprised to see continued volatility in the coming months.

0102030405060708090

100Ja

n-11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


01020304050607080

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 37.5 41.7 12.5 37.5 20.8

75%

25%



50%

0% 0%

50%

75%

25%

0%

25%

75%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





Sacramento, CA – Investors Keep the Market Humming in January, but Traditional Buyers are Left Out



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Investors are extremely active. They are buying up to 50

homes per week. We’re down to two weeks worth of supply, so it’s very tough for regular buyers to get a home.”

• “Investors are creating a buying frenzy.”

• “The news of rising pricing is getting people excited to join the market.”

• “Interest rates are low and buyers want to take advantage. But there isn’t enough inventory. There just simply isn’t anything out there for them to buy.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index slipped to 64 in January form 73 in

December, but still pointed to traffic exceeding expectations. Agents indicated that low inventories and strong investor activity likely drove some traditional buyers away from the market; however, levels remain strong.

• Home prices increased again in January, as our home price index came in at 92 from 100 in December.

• We expect further price increases given the region’s low levels of inventory and the decreasing time needed to sell a home. The continued strength in traffic will also remain a key driver.

0102030405060708090

100Ja

n-11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

100

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change (9.0) (7.7) 4.5 14.6 (17.4)

50%

29%

21%



85%

0% 8%15%

91%

46%

0%9%

46%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





San Antonio, TX – Strong and Growing Local Oil Industry Drives Traffic and Prices Higher



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “The local oil economy is bringing in a lot of highly paid

individuals.”

• “The growing oil industry in south San Antonio is giving us a big boost.”

• “The local economy is buzzing.”

• “Consumer confidence is improving because we did not go over the fiscal cliff. High rental rates are also pushing people into the for-sale market.”

Our Take: • Buyer traffic jumped higher and exceeded agents’ expectations

in January. Our buyer traffic index increased to 82 from 44 in December. The local economy has been a key driver of traffic levels in the region. January was no exception, as agents pointed to better activity.

• Home prices increased again in January, as our home price index increased to 77 from 63 in December.

• Prices have increased for the past seven months. The trend is expected to remain positive, especially if traffic remains high, and inventories and the time to sell continue to decline.

0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 38.1 14.8 (21.6) (6.8) 4.0

64%

36%



55%

18%0%

45%

82%

55%

0% 0%

45%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





San Diego, CA – Urgency Still High in January, Traffic and Pricing Increase Further



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Buyers have greater confidence and mortgage rates are at

fantastic levels.”

• “There is less inventory and prices are rising. Both are working to bring buyers into the market.”

• “Low appraisals are still creating problems for buyers looking to close.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index increased to 69 from 60 in December,

pointing to traffic further above agents’ expectations. Urgency in the market is high, as buyers want to take part in the recovery. However, they face fierce competition as inventory levels continue to decline.

• Home prices were also stronger, as our home price index improved to 91 from 77 in December.

• Lower inventories and a reduced time needed to sell a home in January both point to higher pricing for the region in the coming months.

01020304050607080

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

100

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 8.2 14.2 (0.7) (1.5) 13.0

46%

45%

9%



82%

0%9%

18%

80%

9%0%

20%

82%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





San Francisco, CA – Higher Pricing, Lower Inventories Drive Better Urgency and Traffic in January



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “There is a serious shortage of inventory. It is creating a

frenzy of buyers with multiple offers.”

• “There is no inventory! Almost all of my sales are cash, otherwise buyers will miss out.”

• “There is more confidence in the economy. Buyers have a better sense of job security in the area.”

• “Some sellers are testing the market, becoming aggressive on listing prices to see what kind of turn out they can get.”

Our Take: • Buyer traffic continued to improve in January, as our traffic

index increased to 80 from 70 in December. Rising prices have instilled confidence in the market, bringing on more demand even as inventories fall further.

• Home prices marched higher in January. Our home price index increased to 96 from 90 in December (12th consecutive month).

• We expect prices to continue to increase. Traffic remains strong, and inventory levels and the time needed to sell a home both decreased. These are positive signs for future pricing.

0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 10.4 6.8 (7.3) (18.4) (1.2)

68%

25%

7%



93%

0% 0%7%

83%

44%

0%17%

56%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





Sarasota, FL – Traffic Meets Expectations, Higher Pricing Points to Recovery in Market



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Interest rates are low and I think that has helped unleash

some pent up demand.”

• “Prices are rising but appraisals don’t always match. This has been an issue for some of my buyers.”

• “There is more excitement in the market this year. We’re seeing buyers out in greater numbers.”

Our Take: • Traffic met expectations in January, as our traffic index came in

at 50 from 63 in December. Traffic slipped slightly, but agents indicated there is still solid interest in the market. We think that if inventories fall further, urgency may improve as buyers compete for a smaller pool of homes.

• Prices increased again, as our home price index improved to 93 from 86 in December.

• Prices have increased for the past six months, and are likely to improve further. Agents pointed to lower inventories and the time needed to sell in January, both positives for pricing.

0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

100

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change (12.5) 7.1 (14.3) 14.3 21.4

22%

56%

22%



86%

14%0%

14%

86%

43%

0% 0%

57%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





Seattle, WA – Buyers Look to Capitalize on Improving Market before the Opportunity Escapes



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Buyers are trying to take advantage of low interest rates

before they rise.”

• “January is normally a good month, but this year we’ve seen a much bigger uptick in activity.”

• “Inventory is lower. People are feeling pressure that their window of opportunity is shrinking.”

• “We’ve seen a lot of demand for homes that are closer to the center of the city.”

Our Take: • Traffic exceeded expectations in January, as our traffic index

came in at 69 from 74 in December. Though our index fell slightly, agents indicated that urgency remained high. Buyers want to capitalize on affordability levels, while low inventories are creating increased competition.

• Home prices increased further, as our home price index came in at 83 from 87 in December (10th consecutive month).

• We expect prices to increase from January’s levels, as agents indicated that inventories and the time to sell both declined. These are both drivers and positive indicators of future pricing.

0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

100

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change (4.1) (3.3) (7.5) (19.8) 0.0

50%39%

11%



67%

6% 0%

33%

76%

33%

0%18%

67%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





St. Louis, MO – Solid Traffic as Buyers Expect Housing Market to Improve



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “There is a more positive outlook on housing. Low interest

rates also make the decision easier for potential buyers.”

• “Buyers think we’ve hit the bottom and interest rates are still low.”

• “The elections are over and buyers are ready to move on. Interest rates are low and I think we’re seeing the release of some pent-up demand.”

Our Take: • Buyer traffic came in to meet expectations in January, as our

buyer traffic index came in at 50, up from 44 in December. Agents indicated that buyers felt the market has hit an inflection point are ready to finally make the leap.

• Home prices increased again in January, as our price index improved to 60 from 56 in December.

• We expect prices to continue to increase, as the time to sell declined in January, indicating urgency. Additionally, inventories were flat, which could act as a positive catalyst with better traffic.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


010203040506070

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 6.3 3.8 31.3 (12.5) 0.0

40%

20%

40%



20%0%

25%

80%

50%

25%

0%

50% 50%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





Tampa, FL – Traffic Higher on Better Consumer Confidence, Investor Activity



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Buyers feel that now is the time to get into the market,

before prices rise too quickly again.”

• “People think that the worst is over. We’re also seeing more traffic for homes in the mid-price range.”

• “People want to own a home again. I feel like we’ve hit the bottom of the market.”

• “We’re getting a lot of traffic from investors. They are a big part of the price appreciation we’re seeing.”

Our Take: • Buyer traffic increased and met expectations in January, as our

traffic index improved to 53 from 40 in December (first time since September). While investors continued to remain active, agents indicated that traditional buyers were exhibiting more interest in January, a positive for the spring selling season.

• Prices increased further in January, as our price index improved to 83 from 74 in December (9th consecutive month).

• Inventories declined, while the time to sell decreased again (stronger urgency). We expect prices to continue to improve, especially with higher traffic.

01020304050607080

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 13.9 9.8 6.7 (24.2) (3.9)

27%

53%

20%



67%

13% 13%

33%

67%

40%

0%

20%

47%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%





Tucson, AZ – Buyers Feel Market has Turned the Corner as Prices Increase Further



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Interest rates are still low and people seem to have a better

feeling of economic security than they’ve exhibited over the last several months.”

• “Buyers are confident that prices have hit, or passed the bottom.”

• “Clients feel the market may be getting away from them. They feel pressure to act with prices rising and inventories declining.”

• “Buyers feel good about the direction of the market. There is more demand than supply.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index came in at 50 from 55 in December,

indicating that traffic levels met agents’ expectations. Agents voiced buyers’ concerns that they might miss out on the recovery and wanted to get in before it was too late.

• Home prices continued to increase in January. Our home price index improved to 71 from 75 in December (11th consecutive month).

• Inventories were flat, through the time needed to sell decreased. We think that as urgency levels increase, prices are likely to continue to improve as well.

01020304050607080

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change (5.0) (3.6) (3.6) (1.4) 6.4

36%

28%

36%



50%

14% 14%

43%

79%

29%

7% 7%

57%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





Virginia Beach, VA – Urgency Remains Strong; Low Prices and Inventories Keep Buyers Interested


(3,544 single-family building permits in 2012, 31st largest market in the country)

Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Prices are still low, which is keeping buyers in the market.

Inventories are also declining which is motiving them to act. However, the mortgage process is still dragging out.”

• “Buyers and sellers are in the market at levels I haven’t seen in several years. The market is buzzing with activity.”

Our Take: • Our traffic index increased to 70 from 38 in December,

suggesting that traffic surpassed agents’ expectations. Agents credited the large jump in traffic to lower inventory, which has compelled buyers to jump into the market earlier then they otherwise might have.

• January home prices slipped, as our price index fell to 40 from 50 in December.

• Inventories continue to decline, as does the time needed to sell a home. These are indications of urgency and a positive for future pricing, especially if traffic levels can remain strong.

0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


010203040506070

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 32.5 (10.0) (10.0) 5.0 (17.5)

60%20%

20%



0%20%

0%

80% 80%60%

20%0%

40%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%





Washington, D.C. – Traffic Higher as Buyers Grow More Comfortable Post Fiscal Cliff Fears



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “Rising prices have been creating urgency. They have sent

people looking earlier than they normally would.”

• “Buyers are afraid interest rates are going to rise, so they are finally getting off the fence.”

• “We’ve seen an upsurge in consumer confidence, with low interest rates and the opportunity to purchase before home prices get too out of hand.”

• “Buyers feel more secure. The election is over and we avoided the fiscal cliff.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index increased to 64 from 48 in December,

exceeding agents’ expectations (first time since June 2012). Agents indicated that buyers were ready to step back into the market as political fears and concerns eased following the resolution of the fiscal cliff.

• Our home price index increased to 79 from 71, pointing to rising prices in January.

• Prices are expected to continue to increase in the coming months, as inventories and the time needed to sell a home fell in January. These are both positives for future pricing.

01020304050607080

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 15.5 8.3 (4.2) (6.2) 12.4

47%

33%

20%



58%

19%8%

42%

69%

38%

0%11%

54%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%





Wilmington, NC – Pricing Higher in January, Could Mark Start of a Trend as Traffic Remains Strong



Comments from Real Estate Agents: • “We have quality inventory with attractive prices. Low

interest rates make it more compelling for buyers to shop.”

• “The luxury market has been performing well, though many deals are cash transactions, with no mortgage hoops to jump through.”

Our Take: • Our buyer traffic index came in at 75, unchanged from our

reading in December, still pointing to traffic levels above agents’ expectations. Rising prices have worked to drive additional buyers into market, while low inventories have increased competition amongst the buyer pool.

• Home prices were higher in January, as our home price index increased to 67 from 25 in December.

• Inventory levels and the time needed to sell a home were flat in January. With better traffic, we think both levels can decline, which would act as a positive catalyst for future pricing trends.

0102030405060708090

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Buy

er T

raffi

c In

dex


010203040506070

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Hom

e Pr

ice

Inde

x


MonthBuyer Traffic

IndexHome Price

IndexIncentive

IndexHome Listings

IndexTime to Sell


Point Change 0.0 41.7 (12.5) (25.0) 25.0

50%50%



33%

0% 0%

67%

100% 100%

0% 0% 0%0%

20%40%60%80%

100%120%





Appendix:


Historical Trends: Buyer Traffic Index


BUYER TRAFFIC INDEX Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13Atlanta, GA 24.1 20.0 25.0 21.2 25.9 33.3 33.3 26.5 16.1 24.1 38.5 41.3 59.5 72.5 54.5 55.6 54.5 51.9 47.4 65.4 53.6 60.9 50.0 53.3 45.5Austin, TX 38.1 42.5 39.6 46.4 41.3 27.3 25.0 23.9 44.7 15.0 33.3 35.0 58.7 77.5 71.9 67.9 76.2 73.7 66.7 67.6 68.8 61.1 42.3 53.1 57.1Baltimore, MD 16.7 68.8 42.3 20.8 20.0 5.6 45.0 37.5 0.0 33.3 28.6 62.5 50.0 58.3 70.0 45.0 35.7 62.5 58.3 75.0 12.5 28.6 28.6 38.9 33.3Boston, MA 30.0 31.3 44.4 50.0 28.6 46.9 34.6 18.8 35.0 32.1 23.1 50.0 34.6 70.0 85.7 80.8 60.0 67.6 46.9 60.7 53.6 42.3 53.3 50.0 61.1Charleston, SC 50.0 50.0 16.7 16.7 10.0 30.0 30.0 16.7 0.0 12.5 0.0 0.0 37.5 42.9 50.0 66.7 25.0 50.0 8.3 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 25.0Charlotte, NC 55.0 41.7 28.6 31.8 34.4 23.1 19.2 21.9 6.7 25.0 46.4 45.8 60.0 82.1 55.0 61.5 46.4 39.3 44.4 38.9 36.4 26.9 59.1 50.0 75.0Chicago, IL 25.6 27.6 26.4 27.4 32.9 20.8 24.2 21.1 26.3 27.4 17.6 41.2 58.6 57.9 75.7 60.7 59.4 45.5 40.5 51.7 44.9 42.4 41.1 46.4 60.6Cincinnati, OH 22.2 21.4 35.7 26.7 25.0 11.5 20.0 14.3 0.0 16.7 11.1 25.0 46.7 45.0 88.9 81.3 64.3 78.6 35.7 33.3 35.7 25.0 66.7 59.1 71.4Columbus, OH 25.0 42.9 31.3 16.7 28.6 33.3 25.0 25.0 27.8 20.0 22.7 50.0 55.0 50.0 50.0 60.0 61.1 64.3 45.8 29.2 55.6 61.1 45.5 50.0 50.0Dallas, TX 38.6 30.4 41.1 42.5 39.5 21.9 45.0 23.1 22.2 27.8 19.4 30.0 45.2 50.0 63.3 66.7 56.3 42.9 44.4 50.0 54.2 63.6 59.1 58.3 56.3Denver, CO 31.3 40.7 38.6 43.8 31.0 28.6 26.9 22.2 37.0 38.5 41.7 46.3 50.0 50.0 69.2 69.6 73.9 63.0 56.3 60.0 56.8 53.3 63.5 56.8 69.6Detroit, MI 20.0 36.8 60.0 56.3 38.6 38.9 40.0 35.7 33.3 19.4 21.4 38.2 36.7 50.0 46.2 56.3 69.2 57.7 63.2 46.2 50.0 35.3 32.1 37.5 40.0Fort Myers, FL 63.6 52.6 66.7 53.3 52.8 52.8 42.9 40.0 36.1 46.2 46.9 45.8 43.3 76.3 52.9 37.5 46.2 40.9 25.0 40.9 25.0 46.4 62.5 28.6 47.4Houston, TX 42.9 39.5 29.2 31.0 27.8 23.1 36.5 19.0 50.0 32.4 41.3 36.1 50.0 67.5 61.8 62.5 52.5 61.5 53.3 47.2 56.3 42.1 40.0 50.0 61.9Inland Empire, CA 45.5 50.0 33.3 31.3 27.8 29.4 33.3 21.4 25.0 50.0 29.2 33.3 38.5 37.5 57.7 53.8 72.7 52.6 57.5 62.5 61.5 55.6 58.8 66.7 70.8Jacksonville, FL 70.0 50.0 53.6 53.8 61.1 36.7 41.7 38.5 22.7 25.0 37.5 16.7 45.8 50.0 55.0 66.7 54.5 69.2 37.5 25.0 59.1 50.0 64.3 56.3 75.0Las Vegas, NV 27.3 43.5 26.0 50.0 31.3 42.5 32.7 33.3 47.9 44.1 42.9 52.5 50.0 57.9 63.2 80.0 65.4 70.5 60.7 47.5 43.8 55.9 36.7 63.3 61.9Los Angeles, CA 32.6 39.4 33.3 28.4 25.7 19.4 28.1 33.3 12.5 25.0 23.4 35.2 50.0 53.7 60.0 61.5 60.3 75.0 55.4 59.6 65.4 64.7 62.5 68.0 66.7Miami, FL 46.2 51.5 52.4 48.8 52.5 42.4 37.5 37.1 28.4 38.5 44.2 40.0 60.8 56.8 60.2 61.1 56.9 67.2 53.8 46.6 60.8 48.7 50.0 55.3 60.3Minneapolis, MN 31.4 39.1 34.7 38.5 30.7 35.5 33.3 23.6 29.7 26.6 21.1 31.4 50.0 62.5 72.2 68.2 64.5 66.7 57.1 73.8 61.3 59.1 46.9 39.5 57.4Nashville, TN 0.0 50.0 30.8 43.8 15.0 26.9 8.3 16.7 28.6 25.0 37.5 31.8 62.5 66.7 72.7 75.0 62.5 61.5 31.3 25.0 35.7 18.8 50.0 61.1 61.1New York-Northern NJ 28.7 34.0 23.1 23.5 18.3 11.1 15.3 17.4 12.5 8.8 19.4 24.4 38.1 54.2 62.0 40.2 40.8 41.3 40.7 29.1 26.7 34.3 15.1 32.6 45.8Orlando, FL 50.0 50.0 39.5 44.1 39.6 13.9 27.8 23.5 32.1 34.6 18.4 41.7 29.2 63.3 45.5 53.1 53.1 58.3 52.3 46.4 47.5 36.8 42.3 35.7 34.6Phila.-Southern NJ 53.6 43.2 36.0 11.4 7.7 7.5 17.6 21.4 25.0 21.1 15.2 30.6 42.5 58.3 59.1 40.9 44.8 34.6 52.1 40.9 50.0 38.0 33.3 54.5 63.9Phoenix, AZ 39.7 47.1 44.2 54.8 54.2 45.7 50.0 39.2 37.9 40.0 27.9 50.0 53.4 73.6 84.4 78.1 73.6 68.8 54.4 63.0 53.2 43.2 48.0 39.6 42.6Portland, OR 40.0 38.0 32.7 23.8 23.9 24.0 26.2 21.1 14.3 25.0 36.8 36.8 50.0 75.0 61.1 55.9 60.0 65.0 65.8 62.5 53.8 55.3 50.0 54.2 57.5Raleigh, NC 39.3 35.0 37.5 16.7 16.7 30.0 22.2 13.6 0.0 31.3 60.0 50.0 62.5 57.1 33.3 50.0 42.9 60.0 50.0 58.3 37.5 33.3 35.7 40.0 42.9Richmond, VA 66.7 60.0 50.0 25.0 18.8 33.3 66.7 75.0 33.3 25.0 66.7 50.0 75.0 83.3 66.7 100.0 50.0 60.0 60.0 33.3 42.9 57.1 57.1 50.0 87.5Sacramento, CA 25.0 39.3 18.8 25.0 27.8 39.5 28.1 25.0 5.0 35.0 39.3 38.9 64.3 100.0 68.2 72.7 88.9 62.5 64.3 58.3 67.9 67.9 77.3 73.3 64.3San Antonio, TX 37.5 18.2 32.1 40.9 27.8 40.9 16.7 12.5 18.8 14.3 38.9 37.5 62.5 62.5 72.2 65.0 64.3 65.0 45.0 85.7 35.0 37.5 33.3 43.8 81.8San Diego, CA 33.3 34.1 23.9 30.0 21.7 15.4 11.5 18.8 10.7 15.0 14.3 29.5 30.8 56.3 50.0 66.7 63.9 65.2 68.4 57.9 50.0 53.6 65.0 60.0 68.2San Francisco, CA 50.0 56.3 37.5 41.3 33.3 25.0 42.0 38.6 25.0 37.5 39.7 26.5 54.3 73.9 84.8 84.1 68.0 67.7 67.4 75.0 73.8 76.1 67.9 70.0 80.4Sarasota, FL 50.0 45.5 62.5 75.0 64.7 43.8 33.3 27.8 18.2 22.2 50.0 46.2 70.0 72.2 77.3 70.8 66.7 47.4 58.3 60.0 41.7 41.7 43.8 62.5 50.0Seattle, WA 55.0 61.1 36.5 26.3 41.3 33.3 25.0 22.2 36.8 33.3 16.7 35.3 38.2 69.0 80.0 61.1 80.0 57.5 53.8 65.4 65.6 68.2 52.3 73.5 69.4St. Louis, MO 25.0 33.3 25.0 20.0 25.0 8.3 30.0 42.9 33.3 25.0 0.0 0.0 37.5 40.0 25.0 40.0 33.3 21.4 50.0 50.0 50.0 41.7 27.8 43.8 50.0Tampa, FL 32.4 42.1 38.6 61.8 37.5 21.7 30.4 22.0 32.6 25.0 31.0 53.1 43.5 60.0 75.0 57.9 67.5 60.3 38.9 50.0 51.8 42.5 40.0 39.5 53.3Tucson, AZ 50.0 41.2 57.7 40.9 43.8 34.4 45.5 26.9 32.1 43.3 30.8 35.0 27.3 61.1 33.3 60.0 71.4 62.5 57.1 40.9 61.1 50.0 50.0 55.0 50.0Virginia Beach, VA 30.0 54.2 45.0 50.0 29.2 16.7 50.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 80.0 50.0 61.1 71.4 60.0 61.1 50.0 75.0 40.0 42.9 58.3 60.0 57.1 37.5 70.0Washington, DC 47.1 50.0 45.3 32.0 37.0 28.0 35.4 27.3 24.0 25.9 29.2 31.7 48.2 66.7 75.0 68.3 68.0 55.6 51.8 50.0 46.7 52.2 50.0 48.2 63.8Wilmington, NC 75.0 28.6 25.0 50.0 25.0 50.0 37.5 0.0 30.0 62.5 60.0 30.0 60.0 60.0 70.0 75.0 62.5 58.3 80.0 66.7 50.0 25.0 50.0 75.0 75.0Total 39.1 42.0 37.5 36.8 31.8 28.8 31.9 26.9 24.8 29.0 32.5 37.1 49.8 62.3 63.0 63.5 59.2 58.7 51.0 52.3 50.1 47.7 49.0 52.0 59.0


Historical Trends: Home Price Index


HOME PRICE INDEX Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13Atlanta, GA 14.5 20.8 32.8 21.2 22.4 31.7 28.8 26.5 31.7 25.9 23.1 19.6 22.7 40.5 34.1 47.4 50.0 48.1 55.3 65.4 65.4 58.3 52.9 55.6 36.4Austin, TX 35.7 28.6 50.0 40.0 45.7 43.5 32.5 30.4 42.5 30.0 26.3 47.4 56.5 60.0 43.8 63.3 75.0 81.6 79.4 76.5 81.3 75.0 70.8 78.1 82.1Baltimore, MD 33.3 31.3 12.5 25.0 20.0 22.2 22.2 25.0 31.3 33.3 28.6 12.5 41.7 33.3 37.5 45.0 42.9 66.7 41.7 50.0 50.0 50.0 64.3 50.0 55.6Boston, MA 40.0 43.8 41.7 32.4 17.9 43.3 26.9 25.0 20.0 31.3 26.9 28.6 20.8 42.9 50.0 58.3 63.3 64.7 56.3 70.0 67.9 50.0 56.3 70.0 80.6Charleston, SC 25.0 50.0 8.3 25.0 0.0 20.0 35.0 16.7 25.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 7.1 16.7 62.5 25.0 50.0 33.3 70.0 70.0 66.7 60.0 70.0 75.0Charlotte, NC 25.0 22.7 21.4 33.3 28.1 11.5 20.8 16.7 18.8 25.0 21.4 33.3 33.3 38.5 30.0 42.3 46.4 60.7 50.0 55.6 63.6 73.1 72.7 72.2 85.0Chicago, IL 16.7 21.4 25.0 18.6 15.8 12.5 15.6 9.5 15.8 12.9 19.7 20.6 23.5 34.6 36.1 32.8 34.4 39.7 42.1 39.7 37.8 46.9 42.6 44.6 62.0Cincinnati, OH 27.8 33.3 35.7 32.1 20.0 23.1 20.0 14.3 0.0 16.7 22.2 35.7 30.0 35.0 50.0 50.0 58.3 57.1 35.7 33.3 57.1 60.0 66.7 54.5 57.1Columbus, OH 25.0 28.6 37.5 25.0 35.7 22.2 22.2 25.0 27.8 20.0 29.2 33.3 30.0 35.7 42.9 50.0 62.5 57.1 50.0 58.3 55.6 62.5 63.6 54.5 75.0Dallas, TX 34.1 21.7 25.0 47.5 34.2 36.7 50.0 34.6 22.2 38.9 33.3 27.3 33.3 46.4 53.6 72.2 66.7 64.3 66.7 73.1 66.7 65.4 63.6 54.2 81.3Denver, CO 33.9 38.9 34.3 39.1 32.3 28.6 36.5 42.3 33.3 34.0 36.4 41.7 48.1 47.8 67.3 76.1 78.3 73.2 86.4 80.0 78.3 82.8 68.5 65.9 82.1Detroit, MI 26.7 35.0 32.5 46.7 43.2 38.2 39.3 34.6 27.8 39.5 42.9 44.1 31.3 41.7 46.4 65.6 80.8 84.6 84.2 88.5 75.0 72.2 64.3 79.2 66.7Fort Myers, FL 40.9 44.7 58.3 60.0 47.2 71.9 46.4 60.7 55.9 46.4 62.5 66.7 80.0 78.9 88.2 86.7 83.3 77.3 63.9 75.0 75.0 75.0 87.5 85.7 85.0Houston, TX 33.3 36.8 41.7 45.2 41.7 32.7 36.0 42.5 36.8 41.2 37.0 47.2 46.2 47.7 50.0 68.8 50.0 71.4 73.3 80.6 71.9 69.4 76.7 79.4 83.3Inland Empire, CA 50.0 26.5 40.5 31.3 26.3 35.3 29.2 32.1 35.7 19.2 25.0 37.5 37.5 38.2 45.8 46.2 77.3 83.3 75.0 87.5 82.1 88.9 84.4 78.1 83.3Jacksonville, FL 30.0 30.0 19.2 38.5 25.0 42.9 25.0 23.1 31.8 22.2 25.0 31.3 37.5 16.7 45.5 33.3 68.2 50.0 50.0 50.0 63.6 65.0 64.3 75.0 75.0Las Vegas, NV 23.9 30.4 30.0 30.6 21.2 32.5 28.0 19.4 18.8 23.5 26.2 35.0 34.2 23.7 60.5 78.6 82.7 81.8 92.3 84.2 93.8 91.7 83.3 93.3 97.6Los Angeles, CA 37.0 28.1 34.0 27.0 27.0 22.2 30.6 27.9 25.0 21.2 28.1 37.5 30.0 38.8 51.4 57.7 64.7 66.0 80.3 83.3 92.0 86.8 88.9 88.0 83.9Miami, FL 34.6 30.0 36.9 38.5 37.2 32.6 40.6 50.0 44.6 47.6 53.4 54.3 53.9 59.2 68.2 72.4 74.3 84.8 85.5 73.3 88.9 85.0 86.2 88.2 92.6Minneapolis, MN 22.7 21.2 27.8 20.0 16.3 22.6 23.6 22.9 22.4 15.6 16.2 19.4 25.6 35.7 44.6 57.6 64.7 73.5 62.1 76.2 72.6 77.9 63.2 78.6 83.3Nashville, TN 25.0 31.3 30.8 25.0 35.0 26.9 25.0 20.8 42.9 25.0 25.0 36.4 50.0 33.3 54.5 58.3 56.3 57.7 62.5 56.3 71.4 50.0 64.3 50.0 77.8New York-Northern NJ 23.1 22.8 34.6 32.8 22.6 18.3 25.0 16.7 21.9 15.0 18.5 14.0 27.0 30.2 39.6 34.1 30.0 40.2 35.0 40.2 40.9 37.0 39.8 41.5 47.9Orlando, FL 25.0 11.5 21.1 38.2 35.4 18.4 41.7 37.5 46.2 42.3 47.2 47.1 45.8 53.3 60.0 68.8 76.7 72.2 83.3 82.1 85.0 73.7 75.0 80.0 73.1Phila.-Southern NJ 40.0 25.0 32.0 20.5 23.1 19.0 17.6 21.4 23.7 18.4 21.7 18.2 35.7 38.9 40.9 36.4 32.1 25.0 35.4 43.2 37.5 46.0 38.1 47.7 47.2Phoenix, AZ 20.6 20.6 28.7 40.5 37.5 38.6 51.4 40.5 40.0 50.0 48.5 56.3 64.8 71.4 83.9 96.9 95.7 88.5 81.8 87.0 85.5 86.4 82.0 78.3 75.9Portland, OR 23.3 17.3 19.6 15.9 21.7 18.0 21.4 17.5 19.0 19.4 26.3 34.2 34.1 39.3 47.2 52.8 67.9 76.3 81.6 71.9 61.5 77.8 67.9 75.0 82.5Raleigh, NC 17.9 40.9 25.0 27.8 20.0 30.0 16.7 22.7 35.7 31.3 40.0 33.3 37.5 42.9 83.3 66.7 50.0 20.0 55.6 100.0 56.3 66.7 57.1 60.0 50.0Richmond, VA 25.0 50.0 40.0 8.3 31.3 10.0 16.7 0.0 0.0 33.3 33.3 0.0 25.0 16.7 16.7 50.0 33.3 50.0 40.0 33.3 50.0 50.0 57.1 33.3 75.0Sacramento, CA 15.0 26.9 9.4 25.0 19.4 23.7 21.9 23.1 20.0 25.0 32.1 33.3 46.4 50.0 45.5 68.2 90.0 95.5 96.7 86.4 92.9 96.4 100.0 100.0 92.3San Antonio, TX 37.5 36.4 35.7 40.9 35.0 27.3 33.3 37.5 37.5 35.7 38.9 25.0 50.0 31.3 27.8 55.0 64.3 50.0 60.0 57.1 60.0 68.8 58.3 62.5 77.3San Diego, CA 23.3 27.3 18.2 36.0 29.2 26.9 33.3 14.3 25.0 25.0 21.4 25.0 28.8 47.8 41.7 57.1 76.5 75.0 81.6 65.8 62.5 85.7 75.0 76.7 90.9San Francisco, CA 26.5 34.8 33.3 36.0 29.6 22.9 32.0 29.5 23.5 23.7 40.7 29.4 45.8 63.0 65.2 73.9 88.5 83.9 91.3 95.2 95.2 91.3 89.3 89.5 96.3Sarasota, FL 12.5 22.7 42.3 37.5 26.5 62.5 37.5 50.0 40.9 50.0 50.0 53.8 60.0 61.1 81.8 75.0 81.8 77.8 54.2 55.6 83.3 72.7 64.3 85.7 92.9Seattle, WA 23.3 27.8 30.8 31.6 26.0 27.1 29.4 20.7 26.3 34.8 13.2 14.7 14.7 38.6 52.5 57.9 70.0 77.5 67.9 80.8 72.2 86.4 69.0 86.7 83.3St. Louis, MO 12.5 33.3 20.8 35.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 28.6 33.3 25.0 40.0 0.0 37.5 37.5 62.5 30.0 33.3 35.7 60.0 57.1 58.3 50.0 38.9 56.3 60.0Tampa, FL 16.7 28.9 22.7 47.1 36.8 34.8 45.5 26.0 35.7 28.8 32.8 44.1 45.7 47.5 55.6 47.2 71.4 55.2 55.9 77.1 76.8 80.0 67.5 73.5 83.3Tucson, AZ 54.5 5.9 34.6 13.6 31.3 26.7 27.3 23.1 15.4 23.3 33.3 35.0 22.7 50.0 62.5 60.0 67.9 73.1 71.4 66.7 83.3 65.0 65.0 75.0 71.4Virginia Beach, VA 30.0 25.0 30.0 33.3 25.0 41.7 8.3 25.0 0.0 10.0 30.0 10.0 27.8 14.3 20.0 33.3 50.0 50.0 60.0 64.3 58.3 30.0 57.1 50.0 40.0Washington, DC 40.6 50.0 53.6 44.2 43.5 56.0 42.0 35.7 38.9 36.2 39.6 32.8 33.9 61.4 65.2 73.3 75.0 63.9 59.3 58.6 68.3 65.2 66.7 70.7 78.9Wilmington, NC 0.0 21.4 16.7 37.5 8.3 12.5 0.0 0.0 20.0 25.0 10.0 10.0 30.0 10.0 40.0 12.5 37.5 25.0 25.0 60.0 41.7 50.0 42.9 25.0 66.7Total 27.6 29.6 30.6 32.6 27.4 29.7 29.4 26.7 27.8 28.7 30.7 30.6 37.6 41.0 50.2 56.9 62.4 63.2 63.0 67.7 68.7 68.3 66.4 68.3 74.6


Historical Trends: Incentive Index


INCENTIVE INDEX Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13Atlanta, GA 37.5 27.3 41.1 34.0 28.8 32.8 32.7 38.2 26.8 31.0 41.7 37.0 33.3 42.5 38.1 39.5 40.5 30.4 50.0 34.6 34.6 28.3 41.2 43.8 45.5Austin, TX 40.5 35.0 41.3 43.3 39.1 34.1 31.6 37.0 25.0 45.0 20.0 30.6 40.9 45.0 43.3 56.7 47.5 52.6 52.9 44.1 53.1 38.2 34.6 53.1 57.1Baltimore, MD 16.7 43.8 30.0 40.0 20.0 27.8 37.5 25.0 37.5 33.3 41.7 12.5 40.0 33.3 30.0 40.0 35.7 16.7 50.0 50.0 28.6 33.3 41.7 33.3 62.5Boston, MA 46.2 50.0 40.6 53.3 53.8 50.0 53.8 36.7 50.0 46.4 45.5 42.9 50.0 54.2 42.9 55.0 67.9 60.7 63.3 54.2 53.6 53.8 57.7 60.5 52.8Charleston, SC 37.5 43.8 40.0 50.0 40.0 40.0 38.9 50.0 37.5 37.5 50.0 50.0 50.0 33.3 66.7 50.0 50.0 25.0 40.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 40.0 50.0Charlotte, NC 45.0 27.3 42.9 54.5 43.3 45.8 45.8 50.0 37.5 50.0 42.9 37.5 26.7 42.9 40.0 41.7 50.0 50.0 55.6 33.3 40.9 53.8 40.9 44.4 54.5Chicago, IL 45.3 57.7 46.9 54.2 45.6 47.0 45.0 43.8 51.6 40.4 41.2 43.5 50.0 37.1 53.6 40.4 38.7 43.5 50.0 47.9 44.6 39.7 47.9 50.0 50.0Cincinnati, OH 38.9 41.7 42.9 43.3 50.0 29.2 30.0 14.3 16.7 33.3 38.9 35.7 40.0 50.0 61.1 50.0 50.0 58.3 57.1 50.0 58.3 50.0 50.0 55.0 42.9Columbus, OH 37.5 41.7 37.5 50.0 50.0 50.0 35.0 31.3 25.0 12.5 27.3 25.0 40.0 42.9 35.7 40.0 25.0 41.7 58.3 45.8 33.3 43.8 36.4 35.0 50.0Dallas, TX 39.5 26.1 44.4 42.1 38.9 50.0 66.7 37.5 35.3 37.5 34.4 50.0 23.8 30.8 42.3 43.8 44.4 64.3 44.4 41.7 45.8 53.8 40.0 45.0 50.0Denver, CO 41.7 44.2 50.0 50.0 38.9 30.8 44.0 42.0 37.5 37.5 50.0 43.5 48.0 54.5 51.9 52.3 43.2 39.6 42.5 55.3 50.0 52.0 43.5 50.0 51.9Detroit, MI 50.0 44.4 42.1 53.6 50.0 43.3 37.5 36.4 50.0 50.0 44.7 43.3 42.9 50.0 57.7 67.9 54.2 58.3 55.9 58.3 57.1 55.9 54.2 40.9 60.7Fort Myers, FL 36.4 36.8 41.7 46.7 28.1 43.3 50.0 42.9 33.3 37.5 40.6 37.5 46.7 42.1 50.0 50.0 41.7 45.0 32.4 36.4 40.0 53.8 45.8 50.0 40.0Houston, TX 38.1 34.2 43.5 38.9 34.4 32.0 34.0 33.3 38.2 37.5 34.1 27.8 35.4 38.1 50.0 43.8 47.4 50.0 50.0 52.8 43.3 50.0 42.3 44.1 45.2Inland Empire, CA 37.5 38.2 42.5 53.3 38.9 44.1 50.0 50.0 50.0 29.2 37.5 33.3 45.0 43.8 27.3 33.3 45.0 39.5 61.1 31.3 42.9 50.0 46.7 60.0 45.5Jacksonville, FL 30.0 40.0 35.7 42.3 35.3 30.8 27.3 30.8 36.4 16.7 40.9 43.8 25.0 27.8 35.0 50.0 40.9 46.2 43.8 33.3 36.4 50.0 35.7 31.3 35.7Las Vegas, NV 41.3 37.0 31.3 36.1 31.3 28.9 34.0 35.3 32.6 28.1 31.0 39.5 36.8 36.1 44.7 52.4 44.2 59.1 46.2 63.2 50.0 52.9 46.7 56.7 57.1Los Angeles, CA 47.5 39.3 46.3 50.0 37.1 38.3 29.6 37.5 40.6 40.0 50.0 46.0 40.6 47.0 33.9 45.8 43.1 52.4 56.5 52.0 50.0 44.8 56.3 57.1 59.5Miami, FL 39.6 45.2 48.8 43.4 47.2 40.2 46.3 41.2 48.5 41.0 41.3 45.6 50.0 47.1 50.0 44.1 52.8 54.7 56.9 51.2 56.9 50.0 50.0 45.9 50.0Minneapolis, MN 40.9 39.1 33.3 46.2 39.3 35.5 38.2 47.0 38.9 39.1 30.6 30.0 39.0 39.1 40.0 53.1 51.6 43.3 46.6 55.3 48.3 37.9 46.9 55.3 48.6Nashville, TN 50.0 31.3 34.6 56.3 40.0 38.5 41.7 50.0 41.7 45.8 37.5 45.5 37.5 27.3 50.0 45.8 50.0 53.8 50.0 62.5 42.9 56.3 42.9 55.6 68.8New York-Northern NJ 39.6 50.0 44.5 50.9 47.2 44.4 35.9 40.0 40.4 40.5 41.5 40.2 46.4 48.0 45.9 42.1 48.9 51.2 44.0 51.0 53.8 45.7 52.6 54.9 53.8Orlando, FL 45.8 29.2 36.1 26.5 26.1 47.2 50.0 43.8 38.5 26.9 30.6 25.0 41.7 33.3 40.9 43.8 40.6 50.0 45.5 57.7 44.7 42.1 57.1 40.0 53.8Phila.-Southern NJ 40.9 27.8 31.8 39.5 32.6 27.8 43.8 52.9 34.4 43.8 38.1 39.5 35.3 46.7 47.2 41.7 52.3 47.7 50.0 47.6 46.0 52.3 47.5 57.9 70.0Phoenix, AZ 37.0 36.4 43.6 42.1 29.4 31.3 34.3 42.4 44.8 43.8 46.9 43.1 44.0 48.5 53.7 53.2 54.7 50.0 47.7 60.0 48.3 52.5 45.7 41.7 50.0Portland, OR 53.3 42.0 50.0 47.7 45.7 46.0 38.1 47.5 47.6 44.4 50.0 50.0 45.5 50.0 40.0 53.1 50.0 52.8 42.1 50.0 41.7 47.2 46.4 45.8 47.5Raleigh, NC 28.6 35.0 50.0 30.0 25.0 30.0 33.3 27.3 35.7 50.0 30.0 16.7 50.0 50.0 83.3 100.0 50.0 40.0 62.5 50.0 35.7 66.7 50.0 37.5 58.3Richmond, VA 33.3 50.0 40.0 41.7 35.7 35.0 33.3 0.0 50.0 50.0 33.3 50.0 50.0 50.0 33.3 33.3 33.3 50.0 60.0 33.3 40.0 25.0 25.0 50.0 62.5Sacramento, CA 27.8 37.5 50.0 40.6 44.1 36.8 31.3 54.2 37.5 45.0 30.8 43.8 45.8 35.7 33.3 35.0 56.3 65.0 54.2 56.3 54.2 50.0 61.1 50.0 54.5San Antonio, TX 62.5 27.3 42.9 31.8 35.0 27.3 37.5 31.3 43.8 28.6 44.4 41.7 56.3 35.7 37.5 40.0 42.9 40.0 38.9 50.0 37.5 42.9 41.7 62.5 40.9San Diego, CA 40.9 35.0 42.1 50.0 40.0 36.4 45.0 40.9 34.6 44.4 41.2 36.4 30.4 40.9 46.9 44.4 43.8 52.6 53.6 47.1 54.5 53.8 56.3 60.7 60.0San Francisco, CA 50.0 43.3 42.1 40.9 35.0 35.7 50.0 44.1 41.7 40.0 38.1 46.4 50.0 50.0 47.6 47.2 52.5 53.7 58.8 58.3 61.5 57.5 58.3 65.6 58.3Sarasota, FL 37.5 25.0 25.0 35.7 37.5 21.4 33.3 25.0 40.9 38.9 40.9 45.5 44.4 43.8 50.0 40.9 44.4 56.7 50.0 50.0 41.7 40.9 41.7 57.1 42.9Seattle, WA 46.2 43.8 47.9 36.1 37.0 40.5 36.7 47.9 38.9 36.1 33.3 32.1 34.4 45.5 37.5 55.9 55.6 58.8 55.0 45.5 53.1 47.4 55.3 63.3 55.9St. Louis, MO 33.3 33.3 31.8 40.0 25.0 62.5 37.5 25.0 0.0 25.0 50.0 25.0 37.5 50.0 33.3 20.0 66.7 33.3 40.0 30.0 33.3 33.3 25.0 43.8 75.0Tampa, FL 36.1 30.0 32.5 32.4 32.5 28.3 32.6 36.5 25.0 42.0 42.9 50.0 47.8 52.5 40.6 33.3 42.1 46.3 50.0 55.3 41.3 44.1 44.7 46.7 53.3Tucson, AZ 22.7 37.5 30.8 40.9 34.4 46.7 40.9 34.6 37.5 43.3 37.5 50.0 45.5 44.4 37.5 33.3 57.1 54.2 64.3 59.1 61.1 70.0 65.0 50.0 46.4Virginia Beach, VA 37.5 50.0 38.9 40.0 30.0 50.0 25.0 37.5 30.0 30.0 20.0 30.0 38.9 50.0 30.0 38.9 50.0 25.0 40.0 57.1 41.7 50.0 50.0 50.0 40.0Washington, DC 28.6 39.1 33.3 40.0 34.2 38.6 43.2 37.5 39.6 32.7 28.3 32.7 35.7 38.1 47.5 37.9 43.2 44.1 48.1 46.0 50.0 43.2 42.6 50.0 45.8Wilmington, NC 50.0 35.7 50.0 50.0 66.7 50.0 37.5 25.0 60.0 62.5 60.0 50.0 40.0 60.0 30.0 37.5 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 66.7 50.0 62.5 50.0Total 39.7 38.3 40.5 43.5 38.1 38.7 39.2 37.6 37.8 38.4 39.0 38.7 41.5 43.4 44.0 45.7 47.4 47.7 50.4 48.9 46.3 48.2 46.7 49.9 52.4


Historical Trends: Home Listings Index


HOME LISTINGS INDEX Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13Atlanta, GA 44.8 27.1 32.8 34.6 31.5 38.3 34.6 58.8 60.7 63.8 61.5 67.4 70.5 69.0 63.6 68.4 84.1 63.5 68.4 88.5 73.1 77.1 73.5 75.0 90.9Austin, TX 50.0 42.9 47.8 36.7 41.3 37.0 47.5 47.8 55.0 60.0 70.0 81.6 61.4 67.5 46.9 60.7 57.1 76.3 66.7 67.6 68.8 83.3 76.9 71.9 64.3Baltimore, MD 33.3 12.5 16.7 20.8 40.0 44.4 66.7 62.5 68.8 66.7 57.1 87.5 66.7 50.0 30.0 80.0 78.6 83.3 83.3 87.5 87.5 85.7 92.9 83.3 87.5Boston, MA 63.3 64.3 22.2 20.6 25.0 16.7 30.8 25.0 35.0 56.3 57.7 71.4 38.5 42.3 35.7 37.5 43.3 61.8 71.9 70.0 60.7 50.0 75.0 84.2 76.3Charleston, SC 37.5 50.0 25.0 25.0 20.0 50.0 61.1 50.0 37.5 37.5 50.0 50.0 62.5 57.1 66.7 50.0 25.0 62.5 66.7 50.0 50.0 66.7 60.0 41.7 25.0Charlotte, NC 50.0 22.7 32.1 45.8 43.8 42.3 45.8 50.0 59.4 90.0 67.9 91.7 50.0 71.4 70.0 50.0 69.2 67.9 72.2 81.3 81.8 92.3 81.8 83.3 86.4Chicago, IL 36.8 35.7 24.5 26.2 25.0 23.6 28.8 35.1 42.9 53.2 47.2 59.1 77.3 40.8 31.9 56.9 51.6 52.9 67.1 72.4 69.5 62.5 78.6 81.5 78.0Cincinnati, OH 40.0 7.1 8.3 10.0 50.0 29.2 20.0 42.9 41.7 50.0 44.4 64.3 53.3 70.0 55.6 75.0 57.1 57.1 78.6 61.1 71.4 75.0 75.0 81.8 92.9Columbus, OH 50.0 16.7 37.5 33.3 35.7 33.3 44.4 81.3 50.0 60.0 58.3 66.7 50.0 71.4 57.1 40.0 50.0 57.1 62.5 75.0 88.9 75.0 90.9 72.7 66.7Dallas, TX 36.4 35.4 33.9 30.0 21.1 40.0 40.0 38.5 44.4 61.1 63.9 65.0 47.6 64.3 57.1 66.7 50.0 64.3 44.4 53.8 62.5 88.5 50.0 72.7 75.0Denver, CO 45.3 33.3 38.6 34.8 37.1 42.6 63.5 78.8 70.4 81.3 81.3 83.3 81.5 83.3 75.0 67.4 56.5 60.7 76.1 68.4 63.0 77.6 70.4 93.2 76.8Detroit, MI 66.7 52.5 58.3 46.7 65.9 56.3 50.0 57.7 63.9 57.9 71.4 64.7 56.3 63.9 64.3 71.9 69.2 80.8 76.3 73.1 80.0 77.8 82.1 79.2 86.7Fort Myers, FL 45.5 78.9 64.6 70.0 63.9 86.7 78.6 67.9 75.0 61.5 59.4 70.8 76.7 75.0 82.4 78.1 88.5 86.4 72.2 72.7 68.2 60.7 70.8 71.4 72.5Houston, TX 45.0 26.3 37.5 31.0 26.5 20.0 42.0 50.0 57.9 52.9 67.4 63.9 61.5 56.8 53.1 65.6 50.0 67.9 86.7 73.5 68.8 80.0 75.0 82.4 76.2Inland Empire, CA 45.8 32.4 47.6 40.6 34.2 47.1 54.2 53.6 57.1 65.4 50.0 54.2 53.8 79.4 76.9 80.8 90.9 78.9 92.1 87.5 78.6 83.3 86.7 90.6 95.8Jacksonville, FL 70.0 40.0 53.6 38.5 58.3 53.8 58.3 50.0 50.0 55.0 62.5 56.3 70.8 77.8 54.5 83.3 72.7 73.1 68.8 72.2 72.7 80.0 85.7 62.5 75.0Las Vegas, NV 26.1 21.7 42.0 30.6 34.8 50.0 50.0 55.6 54.2 58.8 71.4 60.0 80.0 84.2 86.8 88.1 88.5 90.5 84.6 77.5 76.7 66.7 60.0 66.7 78.6Los Angeles, CA 39.1 43.8 31.9 37.8 31.1 39.7 41.7 45.6 50.0 59.3 46.8 51.8 55.7 50.0 52.9 55.8 67.6 74.0 84.2 74.1 85.4 88.7 76.8 93.5 86.2Miami, FL 44.2 60.3 62.2 70.5 64.1 68.5 75.8 66.2 63.5 73.2 72.0 70.0 65.8 72.4 81.0 85.1 81.1 79.7 82.9 81.8 87.5 82.1 85.0 85.9 80.0Minneapolis, MN 40.0 34.8 40.3 48.1 51.1 56.5 62.9 72.9 85.5 84.8 82.9 86.1 88.4 85.7 79.7 80.3 84.8 85.3 77.6 90.5 79.0 88.2 86.4 88.1 84.7Nashville, TN 37.5 50.0 26.9 31.3 20.0 31.8 33.3 33.3 50.0 50.0 54.2 59.1 31.3 50.0 50.0 45.8 50.0 65.4 56.3 81.3 50.0 56.3 64.3 66.7 66.7New York-Northern NJ 37.5 32.6 24.6 21.9 15.9 21.7 25.5 31.8 33.3 23.8 35.6 52.4 50.0 43.0 34.3 30.5 37.0 48.9 43.3 48.2 57.0 57.4 69.8 70.2 69.8Orlando, FL 58.3 61.5 71.1 67.6 71.7 78.9 83.3 84.4 73.1 84.6 66.7 61.8 75.0 80.0 63.6 87.5 84.4 88.9 88.6 89.3 70.0 81.6 75.0 86.7 73.1Phila.-Southern NJ 30.0 34.1 32.0 25.0 25.0 21.4 20.6 40.5 33.3 50.0 70.5 59.1 60.0 39.5 42.1 36.4 50.0 52.0 52.2 76.2 61.1 64.0 68.4 77.3 86.1Phoenix, AZ 45.6 35.3 57.8 67.9 76.4 75.7 81.6 78.4 76.7 75.7 73.5 76.6 79.5 78.6 83.9 93.8 87.5 80.8 76.7 67.4 53.2 33.3 48.0 39.6 46.3Portland, OR 40.0 44.2 50.0 52.3 45.7 60.0 73.8 65.0 73.8 72.2 76.3 73.7 63.6 46.4 94.4 88.9 85.7 71.1 78.9 75.0 84.6 72.2 85.7 83.3 82.5Raleigh, NC 39.3 22.7 25.0 30.0 41.7 30.0 55.6 50.0 50.0 62.5 60.0 66.7 93.8 42.9 66.7 33.3 50.0 40.0 55.6 100.0 50.0 83.3 71.4 60.0 71.4Richmond, VA 33.3 40.0 20.0 16.7 37.5 30.0 16.7 25.0 16.7 50.0 50.0 66.7 87.5 75.0 83.3 50.0 50.0 50.0 70.0 66.7 71.4 64.3 78.6 50.0 87.5Sacramento, CA 50.0 26.9 59.4 61.1 36.1 63.2 50.0 75.0 70.0 60.0 67.9 66.7 64.3 81.3 95.8 90.9 95.0 100.0 83.3 81.8 85.7 92.9 86.4 70.0 84.6San Antonio, TX 50.0 18.2 32.1 31.8 45.0 36.4 27.8 43.8 25.0 14.3 38.9 50.0 43.8 56.3 38.9 45.0 42.9 45.0 50.0 71.4 70.0 87.5 66.7 75.0 68.2San Diego, CA 33.3 34.1 29.5 38.0 31.8 33.3 33.3 42.9 39.3 50.0 50.0 65.9 48.0 52.1 66.7 88.1 75.0 79.5 77.8 94.7 84.6 92.3 90.0 83.3 81.8San Francisco, CA 25.0 30.4 43.8 54.0 27.8 34.8 54.0 50.0 38.2 63.2 79.6 79.4 62.5 88.6 80.4 91.3 74.0 69.4 71.7 76.3 67.5 82.6 82.1 97.2 78.8Sarasota, FL 33.3 65.0 53.8 75.0 79.4 100.0 95.8 94.4 81.8 88.9 63.6 61.5 50.0 83.3 95.5 91.7 81.8 94.4 69.2 94.4 91.7 68.2 71.4 78.6 92.9Seattle, WA 48.3 31.5 36.0 21.1 27.1 41.3 55.9 46.6 60.5 64.6 63.2 71.9 55.9 70.5 78.9 92.1 87.5 67.5 88.5 76.9 82.4 81.8 85.0 93.3 73.5St. Louis, MO 25.0 0.0 33.3 25.0 12.5 30.0 50.0 42.9 50.0 50.0 70.0 75.0 25.0 25.0 37.5 50.0 33.3 50.0 70.0 35.7 33.3 41.7 66.7 62.5 50.0Tampa, FL 41.7 26.3 52.3 67.6 57.5 58.7 67.4 65.4 65.0 71.2 70.7 79.4 80.4 75.0 70.6 81.6 73.8 74.1 67.6 97.9 78.6 82.5 72.5 87.5 63.3Tucson, AZ 35.0 21.9 23.1 27.3 59.4 65.6 81.8 73.1 53.8 66.7 36.4 80.0 63.6 77.8 70.8 76.7 92.9 91.7 78.6 81.8 83.3 85.0 65.0 55.0 53.6Virginia Beach, VA 30.0 13.6 30.0 25.0 27.3 50.0 58.3 25.0 50.0 60.0 60.0 70.0 62.5 64.3 70.0 72.2 75.0 50.0 70.0 71.4 83.3 70.0 71.4 75.0 80.0Washington, DC 50.0 42.9 44.0 38.5 37.0 44.0 52.0 54.5 53.8 51.8 66.7 75.9 63.0 43.2 32.6 50.0 60.0 66.7 63.5 75.9 71.7 58.7 73.3 79.3 73.1Wilmington, NC 25.0 35.7 50.0 25.0 25.0 50.0 25.0 0.0 30.0 37.5 50.0 62.5 80.0 40.0 40.0 50.0 62.5 33.3 87.5 60.0 50.0 50.0 35.7 75.0 50.0Total 42.0 35.1 38.8 38.3 40.0 45.8 51.0 52.8 53.7 59.9 61.2 68.0 62.7 63.6 62.9 67.2 66.6 68.6 72.1 75.0 71.3 73.7 74.0 75.7 74.7


Historical Trends: Time to Sell Index


TIME TO SELL INDEX Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13Atlanta, GA 19.0 27.1 32.8 25.0 18.5 33.3 32.0 32.4 30.4 25.0 42.3 43.5 45.5 64.3 50.0 63.2 64.3 53.8 55.3 79.2 75.0 56.3 61.8 68.8 59.1Austin, TX 23.8 26.2 41.7 43.3 41.3 34.8 32.5 30.4 34.2 25.0 40.0 50.0 58.7 65.0 65.6 80.0 76.2 89.5 77.8 76.5 75.0 63.9 76.9 71.9 75.0Baltimore, MD 8.3 14.3 29.2 37.5 30.0 16.7 27.8 25.0 18.8 33.3 21.4 37.5 25.0 30.0 50.0 55.0 64.3 83.3 58.3 75.0 56.3 57.1 71.4 66.7 72.2Boston, MA 30.0 28.6 41.2 64.7 32.1 30.0 15.4 21.9 50.0 28.1 23.1 25.0 19.2 50.0 60.7 75.0 60.0 70.6 62.5 76.7 71.4 53.8 63.3 72.5 81.6Charleston, SC 37.5 43.8 16.7 25.0 20.0 30.0 33.3 16.7 25.0 12.5 0.0 0.0 28.6 21.4 66.7 75.0 50.0 62.5 25.0 62.5 50.0 50.0 60.0 66.7 62.5Charlotte, NC 10.0 22.7 32.1 33.3 25.0 23.1 23.1 26.7 18.8 30.0 28.6 37.5 43.3 53.6 60.0 61.5 60.7 50.0 44.4 44.4 77.3 65.4 65.0 61.1 75.0Chicago, IL 24.4 25.0 17.9 25.0 23.0 25.0 22.7 20.3 23.0 22.6 23.0 33.8 47.0 30.8 54.2 63.8 54.7 59.1 53.9 60.0 53.7 54.7 58.9 62.5 59.2Cincinnati, OH 16.7 28.6 25.0 26.7 40.0 19.2 0.0 14.3 8.3 50.0 11.1 35.7 40.0 70.0 66.7 93.8 71.4 78.6 57.1 50.0 57.1 50.0 50.0 68.2 71.4Columbus, OH 62.5 8.3 25.0 41.7 35.7 27.8 16.7 25.0 27.8 40.0 27.3 33.3 30.0 42.9 64.3 60.0 66.7 64.3 62.5 70.8 72.2 75.0 77.3 59.1 83.3Dallas, TX 20.5 16.7 32.1 47.5 31.6 34.4 30.0 15.4 16.7 33.3 19.4 36.4 26.2 39.3 53.6 72.2 72.2 71.4 61.1 57.7 66.7 65.4 59.1 63.6 65.6Denver, CO 25.0 35.2 41.4 39.1 41.9 32.7 40.0 40.4 35.2 42.0 43.5 58.3 61.1 77.1 80.8 87.0 80.4 75.0 84.1 72.5 69.6 79.3 66.7 73.8 76.8Detroit, MI 30.0 52.5 52.6 63.3 52.3 52.9 53.6 50.0 44.4 36.8 40.0 44.1 43.8 55.6 53.8 68.8 88.5 80.8 81.6 76.9 83.3 63.9 60.7 66.7 63.3Fort Myers, FL 54.5 60.5 60.4 70.0 58.3 73.3 64.3 57.1 63.9 46.2 62.5 62.5 76.7 78.9 76.5 81.3 70.8 72.7 63.9 63.6 72.7 60.7 87.5 75.0 77.5Houston, TX 31.0 34.2 33.3 28.6 26.5 14.0 32.0 26.2 44.7 38.2 43.5 41.7 58.0 57.1 64.7 65.6 67.5 82.1 70.0 80.6 62.5 73.7 71.4 88.2 87.5Inland Empire, CA 29.2 26.5 45.2 34.4 28.9 29.4 33.3 42.9 35.7 42.3 25.0 50.0 50.0 52.9 62.5 69.2 81.8 75.0 86.8 81.3 82.1 66.7 78.1 80.0 70.8Jacksonville, FL 40.0 45.0 39.3 50.0 41.7 35.7 20.8 23.1 13.6 25.0 50.0 31.3 41.7 27.8 50.0 60.0 50.0 73.1 56.3 66.7 72.7 70.0 71.4 62.5 62.5Las Vegas, NV 22.7 37.0 37.5 44.4 37.9 40.0 47.9 38.9 47.9 41.2 50.0 52.5 60.5 57.9 77.8 88.1 82.7 84.1 84.6 75.0 62.5 75.0 66.7 73.3 78.6Los Angeles, CA 26.1 28.8 31.5 29.2 24.3 26.5 23.3 32.4 15.0 33.3 18.8 28.6 39.7 47.5 54.3 59.6 67.6 76.0 80.8 83.3 85.4 75.8 71.4 79.2 77.6Miami, FL 46.2 52.9 59.8 53.9 50.0 54.5 51.6 54.2 39.2 55.0 57.0 48.6 65.8 65.8 71.6 71.1 77.0 79.7 72.4 71.1 84.7 70.5 77.6 69.2 78.6Minneapolis, MN 23.3 28.8 33.3 21.2 26.2 21.7 31.9 28.6 35.5 29.7 31.1 36.8 52.4 65.7 71.6 75.8 86.8 73.5 81.0 73.8 83.9 75.8 74.2 81.0 81.9Nashville, TN 6.3 28.1 38.5 43.8 30.0 29.2 33.3 20.8 14.3 20.8 12.5 36.4 37.5 58.3 59.1 75.0 62.5 73.1 75.0 50.0 50.0 31.3 35.7 66.7 72.2New York-Northern NJ 22.1 30.7 25.4 34.1 16.4 17.5 18.1 12.5 14.5 16.7 14.2 15.1 28.7 42.1 51.9 45.2 43.0 42.4 32.2 34.5 35.2 45.4 29.1 40.4 52.1Orlando, FL 33.3 34.6 36.8 44.1 39.1 34.2 55.9 53.1 42.3 61.5 47.2 50.0 50.0 56.7 63.6 71.9 81.3 80.6 72.7 67.9 72.5 73.7 67.9 83.3 69.2Phila.-Southern NJ 33.3 34.1 40.0 26.2 19.2 19.0 17.6 26.2 20.6 28.9 20.5 27.3 35.7 50.0 45.0 45.5 51.8 44.2 50.0 54.5 59.3 68.0 54.8 63.6 63.9Phoenix, AZ 38.2 35.3 40.4 59.5 57.1 67.1 65.8 63.5 58.3 57.1 55.9 64.5 75.6 76.4 87.1 91.9 83.3 78.9 75.6 78.3 64.5 61.4 58.0 39.6 55.6Portland, OR 26.7 34.6 39.3 31.8 40.9 32.0 42.9 42.5 40.5 41.7 36.8 50.0 52.4 64.3 75.0 86.1 83.3 89.5 86.8 78.1 76.9 72.2 75.0 83.3 82.5Raleigh, NC 35.7 27.3 33.3 10.0 8.3 20.0 11.1 18.2 21.4 50.0 40.0 50.0 56.3 64.3 50.0 100.0 71.4 70.0 66.7 87.5 42.9 83.3 71.4 60.0 57.1Richmond, VA 25.0 50.0 40.0 58.3 31.3 35.0 50.0 25.0 33.3 33.3 66.7 16.7 50.0 83.3 50.0 100.0 66.7 62.5 50.0 25.0 66.7 71.4 71.4 66.7 87.5Sacramento, CA 25.0 38.5 31.3 44.4 33.3 52.6 28.1 26.9 38.9 30.0 38.5 44.4 57.1 75.0 58.3 81.8 85.0 95.8 86.7 81.8 82.1 82.1 72.7 86.7 69.2San Antonio, TX 18.8 18.2 28.6 36.4 27.8 31.8 11.1 12.5 31.3 16.7 27.8 16.7 25.0 18.8 43.8 55.0 57.1 50.0 50.0 50.0 60.0 56.3 50.0 68.8 72.7San Diego, CA 30.0 20.5 27.3 37.5 28.3 33.3 25.0 17.9 17.9 22.2 19.0 34.1 40.0 58.3 50.0 78.6 80.6 79.5 71.1 63.2 61.5 64.3 80.0 73.3 86.4San Francisco, CA 28.1 28.3 33.3 40.0 17.3 26.1 38.0 29.5 27.8 34.2 38.9 17.6 52.1 70.5 77.1 84.8 80.8 75.8 78.3 81.0 80.0 76.1 64.3 78.9 77.8Sarasota, FL 37.5 45.5 53.8 75.0 58.8 68.8 66.7 83.3 40.9 55.6 54.5 61.5 75.0 88.9 77.3 83.3 72.7 79.4 57.7 77.8 75.0 60.0 71.4 57.1 78.6Seattle, WA 36.7 31.5 42.3 42.1 45.8 39.1 47.1 41.4 55.3 41.7 47.4 38.2 41.2 63.6 73.7 92.1 90.0 87.5 88.5 84.6 73.3 84.1 71.1 83.3 83.3St. Louis, MO 37.5 50.0 33.3 30.0 0.0 40.0 50.0 28.6 33.3 25.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 37.5 62.5 40.0 33.3 57.1 80.0 57.1 41.7 33.3 16.7 62.5 62.5Tampa, FL 33.3 32.5 40.5 46.9 42.5 41.3 47.8 38.5 45.0 36.5 43.1 56.3 63.0 60.0 66.7 65.8 69.0 66.1 61.8 72.9 69.6 72.5 75.0 70.6 66.7Tucson, AZ 27.3 26.5 34.6 36.4 37.5 37.5 50.0 46.2 46.2 36.7 37.5 50.0 68.2 83.3 54.2 70.0 85.7 88.5 78.6 77.3 88.9 85.0 65.0 65.0 71.4Virginia Beach, VA 40.0 16.7 35.0 33.3 18.2 30.0 50.0 25.0 40.0 20.0 50.0 40.0 33.3 50.0 70.0 50.0 75.0 87.5 70.0 71.4 58.3 50.0 57.1 87.5 70.0Washington, DC 43.8 48.2 51.2 44.2 28.3 44.0 26.0 22.7 22.2 17.9 29.2 26.8 33.9 63.0 71.7 70.0 65.4 66.7 50.0 62.1 61.7 54.5 53.3 60.7 73.1Wilmington, NC 12.5 35.7 16.7 25.0 0.0 25.0 12.5 0.0 30.0 37.5 30.0 25.0 30.0 20.0 37.5 25.0 50.0 41.7 41.7 70.0 33.3 16.7 21.4 25.0 50.0Total 29.3 32.7 36.2 40.1 31.6 34.5 34.5 31.4 32.5 34.3 34.7 37.7 45.5 55.9 62.0 70.9 69.5 71.8 66.1 68.1 66.7 63.6 63.3 68.3 71.5


Agent Recommendations


Agents recommend Toll, Pulte, and D.R. Horton. Toll Brothers received the highest percentage of recommendations by agents across the markets we survey. 31% of agents (net of positive responses less negative responses) responding said they would recommend Toll, while 24% said they would recommend Pulte, and 23% said they’d recommend D.R. Horton. We believe this is important since 35-40% of new home sales involve an agent. This is a positive for those companies, in addition to others below that received strong recommendations.

Rank Ticker Company Name Net Recommendation1 TOL Toll Brothers 31%2 PHM Pulte Group 24%3 DHI D.R. Horton 23%4 MTH Meritage Homes 21%5 LEN Lennar Corp. 20%6 SPF Standard Pacific Corp. 20%7 RYL Ryland Group 15%8 HOV Hovnanian Enterprises 11%9 NVR NVR, Inc. 8%

10 MDC MDC Holdings 5%11 BZH Beazer Homes 4%12 KBH KB Home (6%)


Agent Recommendations


Market BZH DHI HOV KBH LEN MDC MTH NVR PHM RYL SPF TOLAtlanta, GA 9% 18% -- -- -- -- -- -- 45% 18% -- --Austin, TX -- 86% -- 14% 57% -- 43% -- 64% -- 71% 50%Baltimore, MD 11% 33% 33% 11% 22% 11% -- 33% -- 33% -- --Charleston, SC 25% 0% -- 0% 0% -- -- 0% -- 0% -- --Charlotte, NC 0% 27% 0% 9% 27% -- -- 27% -- 45% 9% 36%Chicago, IL -- 12% 4% -- 8% 0% -- -- 24% 14% -- 33%Cincinnati, OH -- -- 0% -- -- -- -- 0% 0% 14% -- --Columbus, OH -- -- 0% -- -- -- -- 0% 0% -- -- --Dallas, TX 0% 31% 44% 0% 25% 0% 25% -- 6% -- 31% 31%Denver, CO -- 32% -- 21% 21% 21% 25% -- 29% 39% 18% 36%Detroit, MI -- -- 0% -- -- -- -- -- 53% -- -- 67%Fort Myers, FL -- 60% 5% 5% 50% -- 5% -- 55% 5% -- --Houston, TX 10% 38% 5% 14% 29% 0% 19% -- 19% -- -- --Jacksonville, FL 38% 38% -- 25% 38% 0% -- -- 38% -- 25% 25%Las Vegas, NV 10% 52% -- 38% 48% 19% 10% -- 57% 19% -- 43%Los Angeles, CA -- 10% 13% 33% 20% 3% 0% -- 13% -- 23% 17%Miami, FL -- 19% -- -- 61% -- -- -- -- -- 11% --Minneapolis, MN -- 42% 31% -- 53% -- -- -- 42% 39% -- 11%Nashville, TN 22% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --New York-Northern New Jersey, NY-NJ -- 8% 14% -- 8% -- -- 2% 10% -- -- 35%Orlando, FL 46% 46% 31% 23% 38% -- 38% -- 38% 15% 8% 31%Philadelphia-Southern NJ -- 11% 17% -- 11% 6% -- 28% 39% -- -- 67%Phoenix, AZ 11% 19% 15% 7% 22% 22% 30% -- 37% 11% 22% 44%Port St. Lucie, FL -- 0% -- 0% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --Portland, OR -- 30% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --Raleigh, NC 14% 29% 29% 29% 29% -- -- 0% 14% -- 14% 71%Richmond, VA 0% -- -- -- -- -- -- 25% -- -- -- --Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 8% 17% 25% 42% 33% 0% -- -- 25% 17% 42% --Sacramento, CA 7% 21% 21% 29% 29% 0% 29% -- 57% 0% 14% 21%San Antonio, TX 0% 73% -- 9% 36% -- 27% -- 55% -- -- 27%San Diego, CA 9% 18% 18% 27% 9% 9% -- -- 36% 18% 36% 18%San Francisco, CA -- 7% -- -- 14% -- 7% -- 21% -- 14% 25%Sarasota, FL -- -- -- 0% 11% -- -- -- 0% -- 0% --Seattle, WA -- 39% -- -- 11% 11% -- -- -- -- -- 11%Tampa, FL 27% 33% 13% 7% 20% 0% -- -- 20% 27% 27% --Tucson, AZ -- 36% 7% 14% 36% 29% 50% -- 43% -- 0% 7%Virginia Beach, VA -- 20% 0% -- -- -- -- 20% -- -- -- --Washington, DC 13% 23% 28% -- 10% 8% -- 35% 35% 15% -- 50%Wilmington, NC 0% -- -- -- -- -- -- 0% -- -- -- --TOTAL 13% 29% 15% 16% 27% 8% 24% 14% 31% 19% 22% 34%

Which of the following homebuilders would you most highly recommend to clients? Market BZH DHI HOV KBH LEN MDC MTH NVR PHM RYL SPF TOLAtlanta, GA 36% 27% -- -- -- -- -- -- 18% 18% -- --Austin, TX -- 0% -- 71% 14% -- 14% -- 14% -- 0% 7%Baltimore, MD 0% 0% 11% 0% 22% 11% -- 22% -- 0% -- --Charleston, SC 0% 0% -- 0% 0% -- -- 0% -- 0% -- --Charlotte, NC 64% 9% 9% 27% 9% -- -- 0% -- 0% 9% 0%Chicago, IL -- 6% 2% -- 4% 2% -- -- 10% 6% -- 0%Cincinnati, OH -- -- 0% -- -- -- -- 14% 0% 0% -- --Columbus, OH -- -- 0% -- -- -- -- 0% 0% -- -- --Dallas, TX 0% 6% 0% 56% 6% 0% 0% -- 6% -- 0% 0%Denver, CO -- 7% -- 43% 7% 14% 7% -- 4% 4% 4% 0%Detroit, MI -- -- 0% -- -- -- -- -- 27% -- -- 7%Fort Myers, FL -- 0% 15% 15% 10% -- 10% -- 0% 5% -- --Houston, TX 5% 5% 5% 38% 0% 0% 5% -- 0% -- -- --Jacksonville, FL 0% 13% -- 25% 0% 0% -- -- 13% -- 0% 0%Las Vegas, NV 5% 0% -- 5% 5% 10% 5% -- 14% 5% -- 10%Los Angeles, CA -- 3% 3% 0% 3% 0% 0% -- 0% -- 0% 0%Miami, FL -- 6% -- -- 8% -- -- -- -- -- 0% --Minneapolis, MN -- 6% 3% -- 3% -- -- -- 11% 3% -- 6%Nashville, TN 0% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --New York-Northern New Jersey, NY-NJ -- 2% 4% -- 2% -- -- 4% 4% -- -- 6%Orlando, FL 0% 8% 0% 15% 15% -- 0% -- 0% 8% 0% 0%Philadelphia-Southern NJ -- 6% 11% -- 11% 0% -- 0% 11% -- -- 17%Phoenix, AZ 15% 11% 11% 41% 4% 0% 0% -- 11% 7% 0% 11%Port St. Lucie, FL -- 14% -- 0% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --Portland, OR -- 5% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --Raleigh, NC 14% 14% 0% 29% 0% -- -- 0% 0% -- 0% 0%Richmond, VA 0% -- -- -- -- -- -- 25% -- -- -- --Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 0% 0% 8% 17% 0% 8% -- -- 8% 0% 8% --Sacramento, CA 21% 0% 0% 14% 7% 7% 0% -- 7% 7% 7% 7%San Antonio, TX 0% 0% -- 27% 9% -- 0% -- 9% -- -- 0%San Diego, CA 9% 9% 0% 9% 18% 0% -- -- 0% 0% 0% 0%San Francisco, CA -- 7% -- -- 7% -- 0% -- 4% -- 0% 0%Sarasota, FL -- -- -- 0% 0% -- -- -- 11% -- 0% --Seattle, WA -- 22% -- -- 6% 6% -- -- -- -- -- 6%Tampa, FL 0% 0% 7% 13% 20% 0% -- -- 7% 0% 0% --Tucson, AZ -- 7% 0% 36% 0% 0% 0% -- 7% -- 0% 0%Virginia Beach, VA -- 0% 0% -- -- -- -- 0% -- -- -- --Washington, DC 5% 3% 8% -- 8% 0% -- 8% 8% 10% -- 5%Wilmington, NC 0% -- -- -- -- -- -- 0% -- -- -- --TOTAL 9% 6% 4% 22% 7% 3% 3% 6% 7% 4% 2% 4%

From which of the following homebuilders would you most strongly discourage clients from buying?


Survey Methodology


We survey real estate agents, as we believe agents provide an accurate assessment of local housing market trends in both the new and existing home markets. We view an understanding of the existing home market as crucial to homebuilders as it represents over 90% of total sales, and trends in the existing home market often dictate trends in the new home market. Each month, we survey agents about trends in buyer traffic levels, home prices, incentives, inventory levels, and the length of time needed to sell a home. In January, we received responses from 900 real estate agents across the country. We review responses and calculate an index for each of the questions with levels above 50 indicating positive trends, levels below 50 indicating worsening trends, and a level of 50 indicating a neutral trend. 1) Are traffic levels in-line with, above, or below your expectations for this time of year? (Because of seasonality to traffic trends – generally more traffic in Spring and less in Fall/Winter – we ask about traffic relative to the expectations for this time of year rather than how traffic compared to the prior month). A traffic index above 50 means that traffic was above the expectations of agents, a traffic index of 50 means that traffic was in-line with expectations, and a traffic index below 50 means that traffic was below expectations. 2) Have prices remained the same, increased, or decreased over the past 30 days? A price index above 50 indicates that prices increased over the past 30 days, a price index of 50 indicates that prices were flat, and a price index below 50 indicates that prices decreased. 3) Have incentives remained the same, increased, or decreased over the past 30 days? An incentive index above 50 indicates that incentives decreased over the past 30 days, an incentive index of 50 indicates that incentives were unchanged, and an incentive index below 50 indicates that incentives increased. 4) Do you see the same, more, or fewer, listings as compared with 30 days ago? An inventory (listings) index above 50 indicates that the inventory of homes for sale decreased over the past 30 days, an inventory index of 50 indicates that inventories were unchanged, and an inventory index below 50 indicates that inventories increased. 5) Does it take the same, more, or less time to sell a house? A time to sell index above 50 indicates that the time needed to sell a home decreased over the past 30 days, a time to sell index of 50 indicates that the time needed to sell a home was unchanged, and a time to sell index below 50 indicates that the time needed to sell a home increased.

CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES (USA) LLC

DISCLOSURES

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, INFORMATION ON TRADE ALERTS, ANALYST MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.


Companies Mentioned (Price as of 07-Feb-2013) Beazer Homes USA (BZH.N, $16.83, NEUTRAL[V], TP $19.0) DR Horton (DHI.N, $23.17, OUTPERFORM, TP $26.5) KB Home (KBH.N, $18.41, OUTPERFORM[V], TP $24.0) Lennar (LEN.N, $40.12, NEUTRAL, TP $41.5) M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (MDC.N, $38.1, UNDERPERFORM[V], TP $37.0) Meritage Corp (MTH.N, $41.22, NEUTRAL, TP $48.5) NVR Inc. (NVR.N, $1006.47, NEUTRAL, TP $1025.0) Pulte (PHM.N, $19.4, NEUTRAL[V], TP $23.5) Ryland Group (RYL.N, $36.94, NEUTRAL, TP $42.0) Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF.N, $7.97, OUTPERFORM, TP $9.0) Toll Brothers (TOL.N, $36.26, OUTPERFORM, TP $42.0)

Disclosure Appendix

Important Global Disclosures I, Daniel Oppenheim, CFA, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Price and Rating History for Beazer Homes USA (BZH.N)

BZH.N Closing Price Target Price Date (US$) (US$) Rating 24-May-10 24.60 28.75 N * 18-Jun-10 20.25 25.00 05-Aug-10 20.60 20.00 09-Aug-11 9.15 11.25 23-Aug-11 7.90 6.25 17-Jan-12 14.75 7.50 U 13-Feb-12 17.25 R 02-May-12 14.65 10.00 U 14-May-12 13.80 11.00 09-Jul-12 16.90 R 11-Jul-12 14.40 11.00 U 13-Jul-12 14.10 12.50 03-Aug-12 11.65 12.50 N 01-Oct-12 17.65 16.25 30-Jan-13 18.61 19.00 * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.

Target Price Closing Price BZH.N

1- Jul- 10 1- Jan- 11 1- Jul- 11 1- Jan- 12 1- Jul- 12 1- Jan- 135

15

25

35

N EU T RA L

U N D ERPERFO RMREST RIC T ED

Price and Rating History for DR Horton (DHI.N)

DHI.N Closing Price Target Price Date (US$) (US$) Rating 12-Feb-10 13.07 12.00 N 30-Apr-10 14.69 12.50 18-Jun-10 10.75 11.50 05-Oct-10 10.84 10.00 28-Jul-11 11.90 11.00 23-Aug-11 8.94 10.00 17-Jan-12 13.75 12.50 09-Mar-12 15.47 17.25 O 14-May-12 16.90 19.50 13-Jul-12 18.70 21.00 01-Oct-12 20.70 23.00 30-Jan-13 23.06 26.50 * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.

Target Price Closing Price DHI.N

1- Jan- 11 1- Jan- 12 1- Jan- 135

10

15

20

25

30

N EU T RA L

O U T PERFO RM

Price and Rating History for KB Home (KBH.N)

KBH.N Closing Price Target Price Date (US$) (US$) Rating 12-Feb-10 16.62 19.00 O 06-Apr-10 16.51 18.00 N 18-Jun-10 12.30 14.00 27-Sep-10 11.95 11.00 10-Jan-11 14.71 13.00 U 08-Feb-11 14.91 12.00 05-Apr-11 11.69 11.00 18-Apr-11 11.30 11.00 N 22-Jun-11 11.83 13.00 30-Jun-11 9.78 12.00 23-Aug-11 5.27 4.50 17-Jan-12 9.01 8.00 09-Mar-12 11.82 10.50 14-May-12 7.89 9.25 13-Jul-12 10.20 10.50 01-Oct-12 14.25 13.00 20-Dec-12 15.60 14.50 22-Jan-13 17.11 R 24-Jan-13 18.29 14.50 N 30-Jan-13 18.86 24.00 O * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.

Target Price Closing Price KBH.N

1- Jan- 11 1- Jan- 12 1- Jan- 134

9

14

19

24

O U T PERFO RM

N EU T RA LU N D ERPERFO RM

REST RIC T ED

Trading Alerts for KB Home (KBH.N) were produced on Date 27-Sep-2010 09-Nov-2010 22-Jun-2011 19-Oct-2011

Price and Rating History for Lennar (LEN.N)

LEN.N Closing Price Target Price Date (US$) (US$) Rating 11-Feb-10 16.99 19.00 O 18-Jun-10 14.74 18.00 05-Oct-10 15.47 17.00 06-Jan-11 19.14 19.00 N 23-Aug-11 12.71 14.50 11-Jan-12 22.25 20.00 17-Jan-12 22.03 21.50 09-Mar-12 25.45 28.75 O 27-Mar-12 27.63 30.00 14-May-12 28.37 32.25 13-Jul-12 31.02 34.50 26-Sep-12 34.64 35.50 01-Oct-12 34.65 36.00 15-Jan-13 40.68 41.00 30-Jan-13 41.60 41.50 N * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.

Target Price Closing Price LEN.N

1- Jan- 11 1- Jan- 12 1- Jan- 1310

20

30

40

50

O U T PERFO RM

N EU T RA L


Price and Rating History for M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (MDC.N)

MDC.N Closing Price Target Price Date (US$) (US$) Rating 18-Jun-10 27.82 31.00 N 05-Oct-10 28.30 25.00 08-Mar-11 27.52 28.00 O 23-Aug-11 16.52 20.00 04-Nov-11 18.13 18.00 N 17-Jan-12 19.99 20.00 09-Mar-12 25.12 27.00 03-May-12 27.99 28.00 14-May-12 27.84 30.00 13-Jul-12 31.56 31.00 01-Oct-12 38.03 32.00 U 30-Jan-13 41.76 37.00 * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.

Target Price Closing Price MDC.N


20

30

40

50

N EU T RA L

O U T PERFO RMU N D ERPERFO RM

Price and Rating History for Meritage Corp (MTH.N)

MTH.N Closing Price Target Price Date (US$) (US$) Rating 12-Feb-10 22.45 22.00 N 18-Jun-10 17.53 20.00 05-Oct-10 19.73 18.50 03-Feb-11 23.30 22.00 23-Aug-11 15.69 17.00 17-Jan-12 25.70 20.50 U 09-Mar-12 27.38 24.75 N 14-May-12 28.01 27.50 13-Jul-12 35.75 32.00 01-Oct-12 37.76 36.00 30-Jan-13 43.16 48.50 * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.

Target Price Closing Price MTH.N

1- Jan- 11 1- Jan- 12 1- Jan- 1310

20

30

40

50

N EU T RA L

U N D ERPERFO RM

Price and Rating History for NVR Inc. (NVR.N)

NVR.N Closing Price Target Price Date (US$) (US$) Rating 12-Feb-10 691.00 750.00 O 06-Apr-10 727.44 750.00 N 18-Jun-10 673.22 740.00 14-Jul-10 668.31 630.00 05-Oct-10 641.05 615.00 21-Oct-10 631.82 650.00 23-Aug-11 599.60 550.00 17-Jan-12 723.18 730.00 09-Mar-12 721.46 760.00 14-May-12 816.11 830.00 05-Sep-12 844.09 R 01-Oct-12 843.29 840.00 N 30-Jan-13 1040.86 1025.00 * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.

Target Price Closing Price NVR.N

1- Jan- 11 1- Jan- 12 1- Jan- 13500

700

900

1,100

O U T PERFO RM

N EU T RA LREST RIC T ED

Trading Alerts for NVR Inc. (NVR.N) were produced on Date

14-Jul-2010

Price and Rating History for Pulte (PHM.N)

PHM.N Closing Price Target Price Date (US$) (US$) Rating 06-Apr-10 11.16 10.00 U 18-Jun-10 9.36 9.00 05-Oct-10 8.60 8.50 04-Nov-10 7.75 7.50 N 23-Aug-11 3.61 4.00 17-Jan-12 7.50 6.50 09-Mar-12 9.02 9.25 14-May-12 9.56 11.00 06-Jun-12 8.76 11.00 O 13-Jul-12 11.00 12.50 01-Oct-12 15.31 15.00 N 25-Oct-12 17.01 16.00 30-Jan-13 21.05 23.50 * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.

Target Price Closing Price PHM.N

1- Jan- 11 1- Jan- 12 1- Jan- 133

8

13

18

23

28

U N D ERPERFO RM

N EU T RA LO U T PERFO RM

Price and Rating History for Ryland Group (RYL.N)

RYL.N Closing Price Target Price Date (US$) (US$) Rating 12-Feb-10 23.23 20.00 N 18-Jun-10 16.74 18.00 05-Oct-10 16.80 15.00 U 23-Aug-11 9.61 9.50 N 17-Jan-12 17.52 14.50 U 09-Mar-12 19.12 18.75 N 14-May-12 22.08 21.00 06-Jun-12 21.58 23.50 O 13-Jul-12 26.07 25.50 N 01-Oct-12 29.62 29.00 30-Jan-13 40.24 42.00 * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.

Target Price Closing Price RYL.N

1- Jan- 11 1- Jan- 12 1- Jan- 130

10

20

30

40

50

N EU T RA L

U N D ERPERFO RMO U T PERFO RM

Price and Rating History for Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF.N)

SPF.N Closing Price Target Price Date (US$) (US$) Rating 12-Oct-12 6.97 R 14-Nov-12 6.04 8.00 O * 11-Jan-13 7.74 8.50 30-Jan-13 8.46 9.00 * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.

Target Price Closing Price SPF.N

1- Nov- 12 1- Dec- 12 1- Jan- 13 1- Feb- 136

7

8

9

REST RIC T ED

O U T PERFO RM

Price and Rating History for Toll Brothers (TOL.N)

TOL.N Closing Price Target Price Date (US$) (US$) Rating 18-Jun-10 17.95 19.00 N 05-Oct-10 18.76 18.50 23-Feb-11 21.20 20.00 23-Aug-11 14.74 16.50 17-Jan-12 22.42 21.50 09-Mar-12 24.03 28.00 O 14-May-12 26.78 30.50 13-Jul-12 29.71 33.00 01-Oct-12 33.18 34.50 30-Jan-13 37.34 42.00 * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.

Target Price Closing Price TOL.N


20

30

40

50

N EU T RA L

O U T PERFO RM


The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received Compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities

As of December 10, 2012 Analysts’ stock rating are defined as follows: Outperform (O) : The stock’s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark*over the next 12 months. Neutral (N) : The stock’s total return is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months. Underperform (U) : The stock’s total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months. *Relevant benchmark by region: As of 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. As of 2nd October 2012, U.S. and Canadian as well as European ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. For Latin American and non-Japan Asia stocks, ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark; Australia, New Zealand are, and prior to 2nd October 2012 U.S. and Canadian ratings were based on (1) a stock’s absolute total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of a stock’s total return potential within an analyst’s coverage universe. For Australian and New Zealand stocks, 12-month rolling yield is incorporated in the absolute total return calculation and a 15% and a 7.5% threshold replace the 10-15% level in the Outperform and Underperform stock rating definitions, respectively. The 15% and 7.5% thresholds replace the +10-15% and -10-15% levels in the Neutral stock rating definition, respectively. Prior to 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings were based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark. Restricted (R) : In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an investment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisse's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other circumstances.

Volatility Indicator [V] : A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24 months or the analyst expects significant volatility going forward.

Analysts’ sector weightings are distinct from analysts’ stock ratings and are based on the analyst’s expectations for the fundamentals and/or valuation of the sector* relative to the group’s historic fundamentals and/or valuation: Overweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is favorable over the next 12 months. Market Weight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is neutral over the next 12 months. Underweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is cautious over the next 12 months. *An analyst’s coverage sector consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector. An analyst may cover multiple sectors.

Credit Suisse's distribution of stock ratings (and banking clients) is:

Global Ratings Distribution

Rating Versus universe (%) Of which banking clients (%) Outperform/Buy* 42% (53% banking clients) Neutral/Hold* 38% (47% banking clients) Underperform/Sell* 16% (41% banking clients) Restricted 3% *For purposes of the NYSE and NASD ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform most closely correspond to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively; however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock ratings are determined on a relative basis. (Please refer to definitions above.) An investor's decision to buy or sell a security should be based on investment objectives, current holdings, and other individual factors.

Credit Suisse’s policy is to update research reports as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, the sector or the market that may have a material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein. Credit Suisse's policy is only to publish investment research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair and not misleading. For more detail please refer to Credit Suisse's Policies for Managing Conflicts of Interest in connection with Investment Research: http://www.csfb.com/research and analytics/disclaimer/managing_conflicts_disclaimer.html Credit Suisse does not provide any tax advice. Any statement herein regarding any US federal tax is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by any taxpayer for the purposes of avoiding any penalties.

Price Target: (12 months) for Beazer Homes USA (BZH.N)

Method: Our $19.00 target price is based on the shares trading at 1.5 times our year-end fiscal 2014 adjusted book value estimate, a discount to the peer group average of 1.9x, given BZH's high leverage and continued operating losses. In addition, the present value of deferred tax assets represents a significant percentage of our adjusted book value est.

Risk: Risks to BZH achieving our $19.00 target price are (1) on the positive side, a stronger than expected rebound in sales and home prices, lower mortgage rates, a significant reduction in housing inventories leading to improvement in home prices, or stronger-than-expected cash flow in '11 and '12, which would reduce leverage; (2) On the negative side, continued weak operating margins and/or significant additional impairments would further erode book value and lead to higher leverage, reducing the amount of capital available to pursue growth opportunities. In addition, an inability to fully utilize its deferred tax assets would negatively impact our book value estimate.

Price Target: (12 months) for DR Horton (DHI.N)

Method: Our $26.50 target price for DHI assumes the stock trades at 1.9x our adjusted book value estimate of $13.70, in-line with the peer group average, which we believe this is warranted based on Horton's diversified operations, solid balance sheet and strong cost controls.

Risk: Risks to DHI achieving our $26.50 target price are (1) on the positive side, greater than expected sales growth, or margin expansion, and lower mortgage rates; (2) on the negative side, higher mortgage rates, lower consumer confidence, or tightened mortgage lending standards.

Price Target: (12 months) for KB Home (KBH.N)

Method: Our $24.00 target price for KBH is based on 1.6x our adjusted book value estimate of $14.80, a discount to peers due to the larger deferred tax asset, but we see upside based on accelerated growth in orders and margins.

Risk: Risks to KBH achieving our $24.00 target price are (1) on the positive side, lower mortgage rates, improvement in home sales and home prices; (2) On the negative side, falling margins, an inability to acquire sufficient land at attractive margins to fuel growth, and/or strained cash flow.

Price Target: (12 months) for Lennar (LEN.N)

Method: Our $41.50 target price is based on the shares trading at 1.9x our $21.40 adjusted book value estimate, which we believe is appropriate based on Lennar's higher-than-average margins, distressed asset investments, improving liquidity, and reduced joint venture exposure.

Risk: Risks to LEN achieving our $41.50 target price are (1) on the positive side, stronger than expected sales, lower mortgage rates, or greater than expected income from LEN's distressed asset investments; (2) on the negative side, higher mortgage rates, lower consumer confidence, or tightened mortgage lending standards; and (3) drawn out resolutions in its distressed investments, leading to lower than expected returns.

Price Target: (12 months) for Meritage Corp (MTH.N)

Method: Our $48.50 target price is based on the shares trading at 1.8 times our $26.70 adjusted book value estimate, which we believe is appropriate given the company's significant improvement in orders, margins, and its solid balance sheet.

Risk: Risks to MTH achieving our $48.50 target price are (1) on the positive side, stronger than expected sales or margins, or lower mortgage rates; (2) on the negative side, deterioration in its core Texas markets, higher mortgage rates, lower consumer confidence, or higher inventory levels.

Price Target: (12 months) for M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (MDC.N)

Method: Our $37 target price assumes the stock trades at 1.5 times our adjusted book value estimate of $24.11, a discount to our peer group, as we think MDC's short land supply will lead to lower than average growth and margins.

Risk: Risks to MDC achieving our $37 target price are (1) on the positive side, greater than expected land purchases at lower prices, lower mortgage rates, or a larger reduction in SG&A; (2) on the negative side, a lack of attractively-priced or located land assets, which would limit future growth potential, and (3) higher mortgage rates, lower consumer confidence, or tightened mortgage lending standards.

Price Target: (12 months) for Pulte (PHM.N)

Method: Our $23.50 target price for PHM is based on 1.8x our adjusted book value estimate of $13.00, a slight discount to the peer group average of 1.9x, which we believe is appropriate as improving sales and gross margins are partially offset the company's mortgage putback exposure and the deferred tax asset making up a greater percentage of our adjusted book value est. than for peers.

Risk: Risks to PHM achieving our $23.50 target price are (1) on the positive side, lower than expected future mortgage putback reserves, stronger than expected sales, or lower mortgage rates; (2) on the negative side, greater mortgage putback charges, and (3) higher mortgage rates, lower consumer confidence, or tightened mortgage lending standards.

Price Target: (12 months) for Ryland Group (RYL.N)

Method: Our $42 target price for RYL is based on 1.8x our adjusted book value estimate of $22.80, which we believe is appropriate given the improvement in sales and margins, and its solid balance sheet.

Risk: Risks to RYL achieving our $42 target price are (1) on the positive side, stronger than expected order growth and community growth, greater than expected margin expansion, or lower mortgage rates; (2) on the negative side, heightened competition and prices for new land deals, higher mortgage rates, lower consumer confidence, or tightened mortgage lending standards.

Price Target: (12 months) for Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF.N)

Method: Our $9.00 target price is based on the stock trading at 1.9x our adjusted book value estimate of $4.69 per share, in-line with peers, which we think is justified by SPF's above average growth in orders and margins.

Risk: Risks to SPF achieving our $9.00 target price include: 1) Additional equity issuance due to greater than expected use of cash on land acquisitions; 2) MatlinPatterson exiting its 66% stake through open market sales earlier than expected; 3) Weakness in California economies and housing markets, which would disproportionately impact SPF; 4) Larger than expected margin headwinds from increases in material and labor costs; 5) A renewed recession coupled with rising unemployment, which would pressure sales and prices.

Price Target: (12 months) for NVR Inc. (NVR.N)

Method: Our $840 target price is based on the present value of 10x our normalized earnings estimate of approximately $109.00. We believe our target is appropriate given NVR's market share gains, strong balance sheet and our expectation for improving returns, offset by near-term weakness in margins and heightened competition for land deals.

Risk: Risks to NVR achieving our $840 target price are (1) on the positive side, stronger than expected sales in its core Mid-Atlantic markets, lower mortgage rates, or greater than expected pricing power; (2) on the negative side, higher mortgage rates, lower consumer confidence, or tightened mortgage lending standards; and (3) difficulty optioning land in the future, which would require greater capital and lead to lower returns.


Price Target: (12 months) for Toll Brothers (TOL.N)

Method: Our $42 target price for TOL is based on the shares trading at 2.1 times our adjusted book value estimate of $20.20, a premium to the 1.9x peer group average, which we view as warranted based on its long, well located land supply, which should continue to generate above-average margins, and its strong balance sheet.

Risk: Risks to TOL achieving our $42.00 target price are (1) on the positive side, greater than expected margin expansion from increased pricing power in the high end market, more meaningful sales growth and cost leverage, or lower mortgage rates; (2) on the negative side, a slowing at the high end of the market due to weaker buyer confidence, which would impact TOL more than others, higher mortgage rates, or renewed price declines.

Please refer to the firm's disclosure website at www.credit-suisse.com/researchdisclosures for the definitions of abbreviations typically used in the target price method and risk sections.

See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names The subject company (BZH.N, KBH.N, PHM.N, RYL.N, SPF.N, NVR.N, TOL.N) currently is, or was during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of this report, a client of Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company (BZH.N, KBH.N, PHM.N, SPF.N, NVR.N) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse provided non-investment banking services to the subject company (KBH.N, PHM.N, RYL.N, SPF.N, TOL.N) within the past 12 months Credit Suisse has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company (BZH.N, KBH.N, SPF.N, NVR.N) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse has received investment banking related compensation from the subject company (BZH.N, KBH.N, PHM.N, SPF.N, NVR.N) within the past 12 months Credit Suisse expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking related compensation from the subject company (BZH.N, DHI.N, KBH.N, LEN.N, MTH.N, MDC.N, PHM.N, RYL.N, SPF.N, NVR.N, TOL.N) within the next 3 months. Credit Suisse has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from the subject company (KBH.N, PHM.N, RYL.N, SPF.N, TOL.N) within the past 12 months As of the date of this report, Credit Suisse makes a market in the following subject companies (BZH.N, DHI.N, KBH.N, LEN.N, MTH.N, MDC.N, PHM.N, RYL.N, SPF.N, TOL.N). As of the end of the preceding month, Credit Suisse beneficially own 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of (BZH.N).

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