credit suisse uk utilities day · 2015-09-24 · solid results in line with management expectations...
TRANSCRIPT
CREDIT SUISSE UK UTILITIES DAY SEPTEMBER 2015
VIRIDOR
One of the leading UK renewable energy, recycling and waste management companies. Viridor provides services to more than 150 local authorities and major corporate clients as well as over 32,000 customers across the UK.
SOUTH WEST WATER
Provides water and sewerage services to a population of c.1.7 million in Devon, Cornwall and parts of Dorset and Somerset. SWW was awarded enhanced status for its 2015-2020 business plan, meaning the business has the highest potential returns in the water sector.
BOURNEMOUTH WATER
Provides water services to a population of c.0.4 million in the Bournemouth and Christchurch region. Bournemouth was acquired in April 2015 and is one of the highest performing water companies with outstanding customer service.
2
GROUP OVERVIEW UNIQUE COMBINATION OF LEADING UTILITY INFRASTRUCTURE ASSETS
GROUP OUTLOOK
• Sustainable cash dividends; policy of ten years of 4% above RPI inflation to 2020
• Viridor past strategic point of inflexion; moving from investment to delivery
• South West Water building on a strong base for K6 (2015-2020) and delivering out performance
• Well-prepared for market and regulatory reform
• Growth both organic and through strategic acquisitions; Bournemouth Water is a logical and accretive addition to the Group
3
DELIVERING SUSTAINABLE PROFIT AND DIVIDEND GROWTH
SOLID RESULTS
In line with management expectations and previous guidance:
STRONG LIQUIDITY & FUNDING
4
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 2014/15 RESILIENT FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
REVENUE UP
+2.7% to £1,357.2m
PROFIT BEFORE TAX(1)
+1.6% to £210.7m
DIVIDEND UP
+4.9% to 31.80p
SECTOR-LEADING EFFICIENT LONG-TERM FINANCING
CASH/COMMITTED FACILITIES
£1,741m average interest rate 3.4%
(1) Before net exceptional charges
GROUP NET BORROWINGS
£2,197.1M (2013/14 £2,194.0m)
GROUP NET GEARING(1)
61.9% (2013/14 64.7%m)
GROUP NET FINANCE COSTS
£40.8M (2013/14 £53.9m)
5
AVERAGE RATE
3.4% (2013/14 3.8%)
AVERAGE DEBT MATURITY
23 YEARS
• Diversified funding mix
• Significant finance-leasing with long maturity and secured margins
• Facilities renewed in-line with expectations
GROUP FINANCING EFFICIENT LONG-TERM FINANCING
(1) Net borrowings/(equity + net borrowings)
MATCHED TO REGULATORY CYCLES AND ASSET LIVES
BOURNEMOUTH WATER
• High performing water-only company
• Outstanding customer service – leading SIM performance
EXCELLENT BUSINESS FIT WITH SOUTH WEST WATER
• Attractive opportunity to expand wholesale capabilities
• Combined retail business reducing cost to serve
• Modestly earnings enhancing following integration
• Incremental 5% growth in regulatory RCV
6
ACQUISITION OF BOURNEMOUTH WATER LOGICAL, ACCRETIVE ACQUISITION(1)
BOURNEMOUTH
WATER
SOUTH WEST
WATER
Household
Customers 185,000 722,000
Non-household
Customers 16,000 73,000
Population
served 440,000 1.7m
Revenue(2) £47m £522m
RCV(3) £148m £2,928m
RoRE range 1.7% - 7.9% 2.1% - 10.5%
(1) Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) approval required (2) As at 31 March 2015 (3) As at 1 April 2015
PROVIDES FURTHER OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF MARKET LIBERALISATION
SWW BUILDING ON A STRONG BASE FOR K6 OUTPERFORMANCE
WELL-PREPARED FOR MARKET AND REGULATORY REFORM
VIRIDOR HAS MOVED FROM INVESTMENT TO DELIVERY
PENNON DELIVERING SUSTAINABLE PROFIT AND DIVIDEND GROWTH
SOUTH WEST WATER
SUCCESSFUL K5 DELIVERY
• Significant financial and efficiency outperformance
STRONG FOUNDATION FOR K6 OUTPERFORMANCE
• Highest RoRE potential in the sector
• Delivery plans underway; bathing water investments and innovative new Plymouth water treatment works
9
PREPARED FOR INDUSTRY REFORMS
• Business re-organised and re-focused
• Bournemouth Water provides opportunities and growth
FOCUS ON CUSTOMER SERVICE
• Shifting from reactive inbound to proactive outbound contacts
• Sector leading digital communication channels
• Enhanced affordability schemes for vulnerable customers
SOUTH WEST WATER OVERVIEW
BENEFITS OF FINAL DETERMINATION
Consistent with Draft Determination
• Potential equity returns in excess of 10%
• Appointee vanilla WACC 3.85% (Wholesale WACC 3.7%)
Benefits of ‘enhanced’ status retained
• No reduction in cost of capital
• No capping of ODI benefits
• Uncapped enhanced Totex menu – extra 5% menu sharing rate
• Enhanced financial award - £11m additional to RCV
RCV growth of 19%(1) over K6
Licence change allows rewards in period
0.3% 0.3%
1.5% 1.5%
0.3% 0.3%
1.7% 1.8%
1.4% 1.5%
0.2% 0.2%
1.9%
2.3% 0.5%
0.5%
Ofwat Final Determination Reflecting Enhanced Status
10
SOUTH WEST WATER FINAL DETERMINATION
2.1% - 9.9% RoRE range
2.1% -10.5% RoRE range
5.9% 6.0%
(1) Nominal prices assuming 3.2% RPI (2) Includes non-household retail margin
Financing reward
Totex reward
SIM reward
ODI reward
ODI risk
Totex risk
Financing risk
SIM risk
Financing reward
Totex reward
SIM reward
ODI reward
ODI risk
Totex risk
Financing risk
SIM risk
(2)
GREATEST OUTPERFORMANCE POTENTIAL IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY STRONG
Water restrictions
18th consecutive year with no hosepipe ban or drought order
Leakage
Leakage targets met every year since their introduction
Bathing water quality
K6 enhancements brought forward to secure returns early
Service Incentive Mechanism
Customer service improving, but step change required
11
SOUTH WEST WATER ODI POTENTIAL
CUSTOMER SERVICE IMPROVING, BUT REMAINS A KEY AREA OF FOCUS
Financial outcome delivery incentives
SOUTH WEST WATER
RE-ORGANISED AND REFOCUSED BUSINESS
Targeting TOTEX, ODI and financing outperformance
Developed wholesale and retail strategies
• K6 shadow reporting already established
Preparing for market liberalisation in 2017
• SWW’s internal programme well established
• Source for Business – campaign to non-household customers
• Focus on workforce training – retail and wholesale
12
K6 PREPARATION
ENGAGED IN FURTHER INDUSTRY-LEVEL REGULATORY REFORM
VIRIDOR
VIRIDOR IS NOW ESTABLISHED AS A LEADING UK RENEWABLE ENERGY, RECYCLING AND WASTE MANAGEMENT BUSINESS
A MARKET LEADER WELL-POSITIONED TODAY AND FOR THE FUTURE
VALUE-ENHANCING ERF PORTFOLIO
• Positioned to benefit from structural under-capacity in the residual waste market
• Supported by optimal contracted position
14
FORECAST TO DELIVER SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH OVER THE LONG-TERM
EARNINGS ENHANCING FOR PENNON GROUP
VIRIDOR OVERVIEW
UNRIVALLED EXPERTISE DELIVERING THE RIGHT STRATEGY FOR EACH BUSINESS
• Solid strategy to combat short-term challenges
• Optimally positioned for the long-term across all divisions
• Significant energy player with 270MW of total ERF portfolio capacity and 104MW of landfill gas
15
VIRIDOR STRATEGY
LEGACY
BUSINESS
RECYCLING &
RESOURCES
ENERGY
Landfill Recycling Collection
&
Contracts
Landfill
Gas
ERF
SHORT-TERM
OUTLOOK
Headwinds in
commodity
pricing
currently
creating
challenging
environment
LONG-TERM
FUNDAMENTALS
Prescribed
to close
by EU and UK
government
policy. Managed
well for cash
maximisation
and alternative
uses
FOCUSED ON CREATING VALUE FOR SHAREHOLDERS
ALL BUSINESSES WELL-POSITIONED
16
VIRIDOR OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE
HIGH GROWTH PROFILE OF ERF PORTFOLIO (1) ROC – Renewables Obligation Certificate
(2) NFFO – Non Fossil Fuel Obligation
LANDFILL ENERGY RECYCLING CONTRACTS/ COLLECTIONS ERF
Important cash contributor Focus on recycling margin improvements
Positioned for growth in a consolidating sector
Business now successfully operational
• From 21 sites in 2014/15, to 3
strategic sites by 2020 – closed landfill sites continue
to produce landfill gas
• Landfill gas boosted by migration to higher value ROCs(1) (94%) from NFFO(2) (6%) and focus on enhanced extraction of declining volumes
• Alternative uses to maximise asset base and profitable site divestments are being explored
• Strong and growing drivers and
demand for recycling • EU expected to announce 70%
recycling target in 2015
• ITOO (Input, Throughput and Output Optimisation) programme giving positive momentum for next year
• Quality remains a key differentiator within the sector
• Managing short-term pressures; rigorous review of contracts
• Collections have increasing role in
securing material for MRFs and ERFs
• Profits increased through route optimisation and infill of rounds using proprietary in-cab technology
• Contract wins include Borough of Poole extension and Kent County Council recyclables
• Renewed focus on national wins to offset expiring contracts
• 7 operational ERFs, 5 taken
over since July 2014 – two thirds of the portfolio
capacity now in operation
• £839m spent with £460m capital budget remaining
• Peterborough & Glasgow, progressing well and on schedule
• Dunbar – Construction progressing well
• Beddington ERF – Notice to Proceed (NTP) received
17
VIRIDOR ERFS AND JOINT VENTURES
Operational ERF
2015 – 2018
Consented facility
Local authority
Viridor collections
C&I (Other contractors)
Sales target
ERF BUSINESS NOW SUCCESSFULLY OPERATIONAL
• All facilities full at opening
• Over 80% of tonnage inputs secured
• Well-balanced risk
Viridor progress in securing contracted tonnage(1)
(1) As at June 2015
18
MARKET OVERVIEW COMBUSTIBLE RESIDUAL WASTE
CONSISTENT AND CONFIDENT IN OUR MARKET PROJECTIONS
• Conservative assumptions taking into account higher recycling over time and further ERF build-out
• ERF demand outstripping capacity; Viridor well-positioned to take market share
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Other ERF Capacity Viridor ERF Capacity UK ERF Under-capacity
VIRIDOR TARGETING 15% ERF MARKET SHARE
Source: DEFRA, SEPA, NRW and Viridor analysis
UK
Co
mb
ustib
le W
aste
Ma
rke
t (T
onn
es m
)
VIRIDOR
APPROPRIATE MIX OF WASTE SECURED
• Recently taken over plants operating in line or ahead of expectations in the post commissioning phase
• Wholly owned plants processed 209kt and generated 121 GWh in 2014/15(1)
• All operational facilities full at opening
• Over 80% of committed portfolio volumes contracted, of which three-quarters is long-term
• Non-contracted volumes provide us with the flexibility to ensure we have the optimum calorific values and returns
• A further 500kt is currently being procured through various Local Authority tenders
19
ENERGY RECOVERY FACILITIES (ERF)
(1) Excludes tonnes processed and electricity generated during commissioning
ENABLING ERFS TO OUTPERFORM EXPECTATIONS
REVENUE MIX
c.70% gate fees (read across from landfill tax), c.25% power price, c.5% recovered metals
20
HEAT OFF-TAKE
Already successful at Runcorn 1, looking into potential at two more plants. All plants heat-enabled
TECHNOLOGY
Viridor’s ERFs use long-established, well-proven moving grate technology. Glasgow the exception, which uses gasification
CAPACITY PAYMENTS
Ongoing review of facilities for capacity payment suitability
OVER 80% CONTRACTED
On portfolio volumes of which over 60% long-term. Contracts include escalators/inflation-linking
HEDGING
Preparing a more comprehensive hedging strategy to secure wholesale market upside and protect against sudden falls in wholesale pricing close to energy delivery
VIRIDOR ERF INVESTMENT CASE
RESILIENT INFRASTRUCTURE MODEL WITH CONTRACTED REVENUES
ENABLING ERFS TO OUTPERFORM EXPECTATIONS
APPENDIX
22
SUMMARY FINANCIAL RESULTS 2014/15 STRONG PERFORMANCE, IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS
(£M) 2014/15 2013/14 CHANGE
Group Revenue 1,357.2 1,321.2 +2.7%
Group EBITDA(1) 411.0 407.3 +0.9%
- SWW 331.3 330.9 +0.1%
- Viridor EBITDA 80.4 76.3 +5.4%
- Share of joint venture EBITDA(2) 41.4 41.1 +0.7%
- IFRIC 12 interest 13.5 8.5 +58.8%
- Viridor underlying EBITDA 135.3 125.9 +7.5%
Viridor PBIT + JVs(1) 37.9 43.6 (13.1%)
Group profit before tax(1) 210.7 207.3 +1.6%
Exceptional items post-tax (11.0) (39.7) +72.3%
Capital Investment(3) 407.3 434.1 (6.2%)
Earnings per share(4) (p) 39.8 42.6 (6.6%)
Dividend per share (p) 31.80 30.31 +4.9%
394.8
407.3 411.0
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
(1) Before exceptional items (2) Viridor’s share of non-recourse net debt in the JVs, excluding
shareholder loans was £204m (Viridor’s share including shareholder loans was £302m)
(3) Including construction spend on service concession arrangements
(4) Before net exceptional charges and deferred tax. Basic earnings per share (statutory basis) 32.3p
Group EBITDA (1)
£m
ERFS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE
c.£100m EBITDA by 2016/17
SUCCESSFUL COMPLETION OF K5
Mitigated impact of price freeze
• NPV neutral
• growth in revenue - higher demand
• Strong cost control
23
SOUTH WEST WATER FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
(1) Excluding exceptional credit
2014/15 (£M) 2013/14 (£M) CHANGE
Revenue 522.2 520.0 +0.4%
EBITDA(1) 331.3 330.9 +0.1%
Operating Profit(1) 225.4 227.0 (0.7%)
PBT(1) 167.9 162.5 +3.3%
Capital
Expenditure 145.1 141.6 +2.5% GOOD COST
CONTROL IS KEY
FULL YEAR EBITDA EXCEEDED 2013/14 AS EXPECTED
24
VIRIDOR FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
(1) Including landfill tax (2) Including construction spend on service concession arrangements (3) Before exceptional items (4) Includes IFRIC 12 interest receivable and joint ventures’ share of
EBITDA (Lakeside, Viridor Laing Greater Manchester (VLGM) and TPSCo). For VLGM, this is the share of IFRS EBITDA plus service concession interest receivable
(5) Interest receivable on shareholder loans plus share of PAT
GROWING SIGNIFICANTLY IN FUTURE
(£M) 2014/15 2013/14 CHANGE
Revenue(1)(2) 835.9 802.0 +4.2%
EBITDA(3) 80.4 76.3 +5.4%
Underlying EBITDA(3)(4) 135.3 125.9 +7.5%
PBIT + joint ventures(3)(5) 37.9 43.6 (13.1%)
PBT(3) 27.7 27.6 +0.4%
Exceptional items post tax (21.4) (39.7) +46.1%
Capital Expenditure(2) 262.2 292.4 (10.3%)
EBITDA BY ACTIVITY(1)
25
VIRIDOR FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
(£M) 2014/15 2013/14 CHANGE
ERF 33.7 3.1 +987.1%
Landfill 15.4 25.3 (39.1%)
Recycling 11.5 23.2 (50.4%)
Collections 10.3 11.4 (9.6%)
Contracts and other 27.2 28.0 (2.9%)
Landfill gas power generation 35.8 37.3 (4.0%)
Indirect costs (2) (53.5) (52.0) (2.9%)
EBITDA 80.4 76.3 +5.4%
Share of JV EBITDA(3) 41.4 41.1 +0.7%
IFRIC 12 interest 13.5 8.5 +58.8%
Underlying EBITDA 135.3 125.9 +7.5% (1) Before exceptional items (2) Including pensions, insurance, bid costs,
environmental management and overheads (3) Joint ventures’ (Lakeside, Viridor Laing Greater
Manchester (VLGM) and TPSCo) share of EBITDA. For VLGM, this is the share of IFRS EBITDA plus service concession interest receivable
AN ILLUSTRATIVE, LARGE ERF (C.300KT) WILL CONTRIBUTE C.£28M TO VIRIDOR EBITDA
IAS 16 IFRIC 12 JVs
• Oxford (Ardley) • Cardiff
(Trident Park) • Runcorn II • Dunbar • South London
(Beddington) • Bolton • *Avonmouth (not committed)
• Exeter • Glasgow • Peterborough(2)
• Lakeside • Runcorn 1
26
VIRIDOR ERF ACCOUNTING
ILLUSTRATIVE ERF(1)
IAS 16 IFRIC 12 JVs
EBITDA £28m £12m --
IFRIC 12 Interest
Income
-- £16m --
Share of JV
EBITDA (50%)
-- -- £14m
Underlying
EBITDA
£28m £28m £14m
(1) From first full year of operation (2) Local authority funding, interest income will be negligible
PROGRESS ON ERF PIPELINE
27
VIRIDOR ERFS (INCLUDING JOINT VENTURES)
ERF BUILD-OUT NEARING COMPLETION
(1) Capital cost excludes capitalised interest and for projects for which the EPC contract has not yet been executed, capital cost may vary in accordance with the Euro exchange rate
(2) Operational period post construction. This is usually the minimum guaranteed plant life
(3) Joint ventures economic interest (Lakeside 50%; Runcorn I 37.5%)
(4) Project is not yet committed (5) Plus heat 51MWth (6) Plus heat 17MWth
SITE
CAPITAL
COST (1) GROSS CAPACITY STATUS
BASE LOAD
MUNICIPAL
CONTRACT
ACTUAL/EXPECTED
COMMISSIONING
OPERATIONS
END (2)
Tonnes
(000)
Electricity
MWe
Lakeside(3) 150 410 38 Fully Operational Merchant Commissioned 2033
Bolton N/A 120 9 Fully Operational Greater
Manchester Commissioned 2034
Exeter 47 60 3 Operational Exeter Commissioned 30 years
Oxford
(Ardley) 210 300 24
Initial Operation
Ramp-up Oxfordshire Commissioned 25 years
Cardiff
(Trident Park) 223 350 28
Initial Operation
Ramp-up Gwyrdd
(SE Wales) Commissioned 25 years
Runcorn I(3) 236 375 28(5) Initial Operation
Ramp-up Greater
Manchester Commissioned 25 years
Runcorn II 216 375 41 Initial Operation
Ramp-up Merchant Commissioned 25 years
Glasgow 155 200 15 Construction in
progress Glasgow H1 2016/17 25 years
Peterborough 72 80 7 80% complete Peterborough H2 2015/16 30 years
Dunbar 177 300 23(6) Construction in
progress Merchant H2 2017/18 25 years
South London
(Beddington) 199 275 26 Construction in
progress S London H1 2018/19 25 years
Sub Total 2,845 242
Avonmouth(4) 233 350 28
Planning
permission
achieved
TBA TBA 25 years
Grand Total 3,195 270