credit suisse, us economics digest, oct 11, 2013. "the 2014 fomc: a new cast of characters"

7/27/2019 Credit Suisse, US Economics Digest, Oct 11, 2013. "The 2014 FOMC: A New Cast of Characters".

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The 2014 FOMC: A New Cast of CharactersPresident Obama met market expectations this week by nominating Fed Vice

Chair Janet Yellen to succeed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Assuming Yellen is

confirmed by the Senate, she will begin a four-year term as Chair of the

Federal Reserve on February 1, 2014.

This transition in leadership is but one of several changes to the Federal

Reserve that we will see in 2014. Within the next few months, the composition

of the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to look very different than it

does today.

We already know of three imminent vacancies on the seven-member Fed

Board of Governors and the pending retirement of one Fed district bank

president. More vacancies are possible as 2014 progresses.

These changes all come against the backdrop of the annual rotation of district

bank presidents into voting seats on the FOMC. The 2014 bank president

voting contingent is likely to be more hawkish than it has been this year.

In another change, the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation requires that a

second Fed Vice Chair be named, in addition to the individual who eventually

assumes Yellens current role. The responsibility of the second Vice Chair will

be to focus on issues of bank supervision.

In this research note, we discuss the above changes in turn. We also provide

our hawk/dove scale from September 24, presenting our views on the policypredispositions of officials on the Federal Open Market Committee.

Exhibit 1: The Federal Open Market Committee in 2014

Credit Suisse forecasts

Board of Governors* District Bank Presidents

Janet Yellen, Fed Chairman Boston (Eric Rosengren)

Vacant, Fed Vice Chairman New York (William Dudley), FOMC Vice Chair*

D aniel T arullo , F ed Vice Cha irman for Supervision Philadelphia (C har les Plosser) *

Je rome Pow ell ( term ex pires 1 /31/14) C lev eland (Sandra Pianalto's successor )*

Jeremy Stein (may return to Harvard) Richmond (Jeffrey Lacker)

Vacant Atlanta (Dennis Lockhart)

Vacant Chicago (Charles Evans)St. Louis (James Bullard)

Minneapolis (Narayana Kocherlakota)*

Kansas City (Esther George)

Dallas (Richard Fisher)*

San Francisco (John Williams)

Source: Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse * = Voting member ini 2014

Research Analysts

Neal Soss

212 325 3335

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Dana Saporta

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Jill Brown

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11 October 2013Economics Research

http://www.credit-suisse.com/researchandanalytics


2/10

The 2014 FOMC: A New Cast of Characters

President Obama met market expectations this week by nominating Fed Vice Chair Janet

Yellen to succeed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Assuming Yellen is confirmed by the Senate,

she will begin a four-year term as Chair of the Federal Reserve on February 1, 2014.

This transition in leadership is but one of several changes to the Federal Reserve that we

will see in 2014. Within the next few months, the composition of the Federal Open MarketCommittee is likely to look very different than it does today.

We already know of three imminent vacancies on the seven-member Fed Board of

Governors and the pending retirement of one Fed district bank president. More vacancies

are possible as 2014 progresses. These changes all come against the backdrop of the

annual rotation of district bank presidents into voting seats on the FOMC.

In another change, the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation requires that a second Fed

Vice Chair be named, in addition to the individual who eventually assumes Yellens current

role. The responsibility of the second Vice Chair will be to focus on issues of financial

supervision.

Below we consider each of these changes in turn.

An Historic Appointment at a Critical TimeIts official, if not surprising. The nomination of Janet Yellen as Fed Chair came as a relief

to markets that have been digesting a stream of bad news otherwise, mainly concerning

fiscal gridlock in DC.

If confirmed, Dr. Yellen will be the first woman to serve as Chairman in the 100-year

history of the Federal Reserve System. And she will be the first Vice Chair of the Fed

Board to be promoted to the Chairmans seat. Also, she would be the first Democrat to

head the Fed since Paul Volckers chairmanship (1979-87).

Exhibit 2: A Fed Chairman Chronology, 1914-Present

Term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve

Chair Name From Until

Charles S. Hamlin August 10, 1914 August 19, 1916

William P. G. Harding August 10, 1916 August 9, 1922

Daniel R. Crissinger May 1, 1923 September 15, 1927

Roy A. Young October 4, 1927 August 31, 1930

Eugene Meyer September 16, 1930 May 10, 1933

Eugene R. Black May 19, 1933 August 15, 1934

Marriner S. Eccles November 15, 1934 January 31, 1948

Thomas B. McCabe April 15, 1948 March 31, 1951

William McChesney Martin, Jr. April 2, 1951 January 31, 1970

Arthur F. Burns February 1, 1970 January 31, 1978

G. William Miller March 8, 1978 August 6, 1979

Paul A. Volcker August 6, 1979 August 11, 1987

Alan Greenspan August 11, 1987 January 31, 2006Ben Bernanke February 1, 2006 January 31, 2014

Janet Yellen (nominated) February 1, 2014 NA

Source: Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse

The next step is for Yellen to testify at a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking

Committee. (Currently, the Committee is comprised of 12 Democrats and 10 Republicans.)

The Committee will then take one of four steps: report the nomination to the Senate

favorably, unfavorably, without recommendation, or it may choose to take no action.

Assuming the Banking Committee approves Yellen, then the vote goes to the full Senate.


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The Senate is composed of 52 Democrats, 2 Independents (who caucus with the

Democrats) and 46 Republicans. A simple majority is needed to confirm a presidential

nominee, but 60 votes are needed to close the debate on the nomination. Our expectation

is that Yellen will be confirmed, but not without dissension from those Republicans who

are concerned that she is too dovish.

The transition from the Bernanke Fed to the Yellen Fed likely will be a smooth one. An

FOMC veteran, Yellen served as a governor from 1994 to 1997, as president of the SanFrancisco Fed from 2004 to 2010, and as Fed Vice Chair since October 2010.

Yellen, also an academic, could be expected to largely continue Bernankes efforts to

boost growth and employment by utilizing the Feds balance sheet and communications.

She is widely respected within the Federal Reserve System.1

Her rhetoric occasionally

comes across as more dovish than Bernankes, and it is reasonable to wonder whether, as

Chair, she would tolerate a slightly higher rate of inflation in pursuit of job growth. That

said, Yellen has not wavered in her public support for the Feds 2% inflation target.

We think Yellen was among those arguing against tapering at the September 17-18 FOMC

meeting, and she is probably nowhere close to contemplating actually tightening policy via

rate hikes. However, there is precedent (albeit in the mid 1990s) for her sounding hawkish

warnings when she is uncomfortable with the inflation outlook. We believe Yellen will be

careful not to remove accommodation prematurely, but it would be a mistake to think ofher views as being static.

Some have asked whether Yellen or Bernanke will take the lead role at the next three

FOMC meetings. In practice, we dont think it would matter, as the resultant policy would

probably be the same either way. That said, Yellen certainly should not be seen as

assuming a chairman-type role before her Senate confirmation, which may not come until

after the October 29-30 meeting and possibly after the December 17-18 meeting.

At its first policy meeting each year, the FOMC names an FOMC Chairman (almost always

the Fed Chairman) and an FOMC Vice Chairman (almost always the NY Fed President).

It is possible that Bernanke will be named FOMC Chairman through January 31, and then

Yellen will be named FOMC Chairman for the balance of the year.

Alternatively, even if she is not yet sworn in, the FOMC in January may name Yellen theFOMC Chairman for the full year. In that case, she would call the shots at the Committee

meeting on January 28-29.

A Yellen chairmanship would leave open her Vice Chair seat on the Board of Governors.

Another seat was vacated when Governor Duke left the Fed at the end of August. And

Governor Raskin, who abstained from the September 18 FOMC vote, is about to leave the

Fed to join the Treasury. So, that makes three of seven slots to be filled (Exhibit 3).

Whats more, Fed Governor Powells term expires on January 31, 2014. He probably will

be encouraged to stay on indefinitely, until a replacement is found. (That is what Governor

Duke did, as her term expired back in 2012.) And our understanding is that Fed Governor

Stein risks losing his tenure at Harvard if he does not return by May. Suffice it to say, the

Fed Board of Governors may look very different by next spring.

1 In his book, "A Term at the Fed: An Insider's View," former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer singles out Janet Yellen as one of thefew FOMC participants who had the power to persuade then-Chairman Alan Greenspan.


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Exhibit 3: The Federal Open Market Committee in 2014

Credit Suisse forecasts

Board of Governors* District Bank Presidents

Janet Yellen, Fed Chairman Boston (Eric Rosengren)

Vacant, Fed Vice Chairman New York (William Dudley), FOMC Vice Chair*Daniel Tarullo, Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Philadelphia (Char les Plosser )*

Jerome Powell ( term ex pires 1/31/14) Clev eland (Sandra Pianalto's successor )*

Jeremy Stein (may return to Harvard) Richmond (Jeffrey Lacker)

Vacant Atlanta (Dennis Lockhart)

Vacant Chicago (Charles Evans)

St. Louis (James Bullard)

Minneapolis (Narayana Kocherlakota)*

Kansas City (Esther George)

Dallas (Richard Fisher)*

San Francisco (John Williams)

Source: Credit Suisse, Federal Reserve * = Voting member in 2014

These current and prospective Board vacancies arent mere curiosities. By law, it takes

five members of the Board of Governors to constitute a quorum. So, we should be hearing

news from the White House within weeks regarding at least one more Fed Board

appointment.

Finally, Cleveland Fed President Pianalto, a voting member on the FOMC in 2014, has

announced her intention to retire early next year. We're told that Pianalto intends to stay at

the Cleveland Fed until her successor is in place. If she were to leave before then, the

Cleveland Fed's First Vice President would serve in her place (and vote at FOMC

meetings) in the interim.

(In contrast to Fed governors, who are appointed by the President and subject to Senate

confirmation, district bank Fed presidents are chosen by their individual banks Boards of

Directors with a degree of oversight from the Federal Reserve Board.)

The Annual District Bank Shuffle

The first FOMC meeting of each calendar year (e.g., January 28-29, 2014) features the

annual rotation of district bank presidents into voting seats on the committee. On balance,

we expect the bank president voting contingent on the 2014 FOMC to be its most hawkish

since 2011. This would be due primarily to the rotation of two vocal hawks into voting

seats. At least one formal dissent per meeting is likely in 2014.

The Procedure All seven Federal Reserve Board governors and the 12 district bank

presidents are members of the FOMC and participate in the committee's eight annual

meetings. Although the opinion of every member is solicited at every meeting, only a total

of 12 FOMC officials have a vote on monetary policy in any given year. The seven Fed

governors always have a vote, and the president of the New York Fed is ex officio vicechairman of the FOMC and a permanent voter (Exhibit 4). The remaining four votes are

distributed among the other 11 district bank presidents on a rotating basis.

The voting rotation of the bank presidents outside the New York district is broken down

into four groupings. The Chicago Fed and Cleveland Fed presidents vote every other year.

Presidents in the remaining nine regions vote every third year.

The table below shows the rotation of voting presidents for 2012 through 2015:


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Exhibit 4: The Annual FOMC Voting Seat Shuffle

Federal Open Market Committee District Bank rotation

Rotation 2012 2013 2014 2015

New York Dudley (NY) Dudley (NY) Dudley (NY) Dudley (NY)

Boston Philadelphia Richmond Lacker (Richmond) Rosengren (Boston) Plosser (Philly) Lacker (Richmond)

Chicago

Cleveland Pianalto (Cleveland) Evans (Chicago) Pianalto (Cleveland) Evans (Chicago)

Kansas City Minneapolis San Francisco Williams (San Francisco) George (Kansas City) Kocherlakota (Minneapolis) Williams (San Francisco)

St. Louis Dallas Atlanta Lockhart (Atlanta) Bullard (St. Louis) Fisher (Dallas) Lockhart (Atlanta)

Source: Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse

The Personalities In general, the rotation of voting members has an impact on the

implementation of monetary policy only if the incoming presidents carry decidedly different

views toward policy from the outgoing presidents. After all, even though he (or she) has

only one vote, the chairmans influence often guides the collective thinking of the rest of

the committee. Most FOMC members particularly the other six governors and NY Fed

president tend to side with the chairman. (At the moment, this probably reflects their

assessment of the economy and the appropriate stance of monetary policy. But even more

generally, the Feds organization chart encourages considerable deference to the

chairmans views.)

Two frequent dissenters with stringent anti-inflation views will have votes in 2014

Charles Plosser (Philadelphia) and Richard Fisher (Dallas). Their positions as voters will

more than offset Esther Georges (Kansas City Fed) loss of a vote next year. This year

was Georges first term as an FOMC voter, and she has dissented in favor of tighter policy

in every policy meeting to date six so far.

Also moving into voting positions next year will be Narayana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis)

and Sandra Pianalto (Cleveland). Once counted among the hawks, Kocherlakota is now

one of the most dovish of the district bank presidents. Pianalto, more neutral in her policy

leanings, never dissented in her five previous voting terms.

When monetary policy in the US is steady and routine for an extended period of time, the

individual personalities on the FOMC fade in importance. Dissents are rare, andpolicymakers rhetoric in public speeches and congressional testimonies take on fairly

uniform characteristics. Fed-speak fades as a motivator of market moves. But in times like

the past few years, when policy has been in flux and anything but conventional, having

insight into the thinking of each policymaker can be beneficial.

Generally, we are uncomfortable applying blanket labels to policymakers. To call someone

a hawk (focused more on the Feds price stability mandate) or a dove (more concerned

with maximum, sustainable employment) is to suggest his or her views are inflexible in the

face of evolving economic and financial market conditions. For the most part, this is clearly

not the case. But, as former Kansas City Fed President Hoenig himself once observed,

these labels are often used as a quick way to characterize Reserve Bank presidents'

opinions about future monetary policy.

With the above caveat in mind, we briefly characterize the backgrounds and views ofincoming 2014 voters below, fully recognizing that we cannot do them justice in a few

sentences:

Sandra Pianalto (Cleveland) has been president of the Cleveland Fed for over a decade,

making her the longest serving member of the FOMC. She joined the bank as an

economist back in 1983. As previously noted, Pianalto has indicated her intention to retire

in early 2014; so, her successor will inherit her voting seat on the FOMC.


6/10

Pianalto has been decidedly moderate in her views, having always voted with the majority.

However, in anOctober 8 speech, she stressed her desire to scale back QE, going so far

as to say she believed the FOMC should have tapered at September 17-18 meeting:

While to date the risks have mostly remained theoretical, I remain convinced that we need

to be cautious in our expansion of asset purchases , For me the improvement in labor

markets seemed substantial enough to support a scaling back of the asset-purchase

program at last months policy meeting.

Narayana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis)has served as his banks president since October

8, 2009. Before his appointment as president, Kocherlakota was a member of the

Minneapolis Feds Research staff, as well as a Research consultant for the Bank.

Kocherlakota has switched his vantage considerably since he was a voting member of the

FOMC in 2011. Three years ago, Kocherlakota was seen as one of the more hawkish

members of the FOMC, dissenting two times in favor of tighter policy. However, by

September 2012, his views had changed considerably:

As long as the FOMC is continuing to satisfy its price stability mandate, it should keepthe fed funds rate extraordinarily low until the unemployment rate has fallen below 5.5

percent.

Today, one could even argue that Kocherlakota defines the dovish end of the FOMCpolicy bias spectrum. In anOctober 4 speech, he took a page from ECB GovernorDraghis book, telling his audience the FOMC needs to do whatever it takes.

Over six years after the national unemployment rate first began its ascent, the labormarket remains disturbingly weak. The good news is that, with low inflation, the FOMC hasconsiderable monetary policy capacity at its disposal with which to address this problem.

The FOMCs test today is to figure out how best to deploy this capacity. The answer lies intaking two steps. The first step is to communicate that our goal is to accomplish a fastreturn to maximal employment while keeping inflation close to, although possibly

temporarily above, the target of 2 percent. The second step is to do whatever it takes, onan ongoing basis, to achieve that goal.

Charles Plosser (Philadelphia) joined the federal reserve bank in 2006 and is in the

midst of serving his second term as president and CEO of the bank. Plosser was

instrumental in crafting the Feds current communication strategy of transparency.

Plosser is known to be a more hawkish member of the FOMC. He has been very vocal

against expanding the central banks balance sheet. The last time he was a voting

member of the FOMC was in 2011, when he dissented twice in favor of tighter monetary

policy (along with Kocherlakota and Fisher). Recently he has spoken out about putting an

end to QE, criticizing the Committee for not taking action in September. On October 8,

Plosser said the following:

To delay tapering of our current asset purchase scheme without clear and significant

departures from prior guidelines suggested the FOMC was changing the goalposts and

deviating from Junes forward guidance. This undermines the credibility of the committee

and reduces the effectiveness of forward guidance as a policy tool.

Based on this outlook and the improvement in labor market conditions, I believe it would

be appropriate for the Fed to begin to reduce the pace at which we are expanding our

balance sheet and to bring the purchase program to a close. We missed an excellent

opportunity to begin this tapering process in September.
http://www.clevelandfed.org/For_the_Public/News_and_Media/Speeches/2013/Pianalto_20131008.cfmhttp://www.clevelandfed.org/For_the_Public/News_and_Media/Speeches/2013/Pianalto_20131008.cfmhttp://www.clevelandfed.org/For_the_Public/News_and_Media/Speeches/2013/Pianalto_20131008.cfmhttps://www.minneapolisfed.org/news_events/pres/speech_display.cfm?id=4952https://www.minneapolisfed.org/news_events/pres/speech_display.cfm?id=4952https://plus.csintra.net/researchplus/CSPlusPageAction?pageId=RESEARCH_ARTICLE&rp_ravWindow=true&rp_docId=1022503581http://www.minneapolisfed.org/news_events/pres/speech_display.cfm?id=5185https://plus.csintra.net/researchplus/CSPlusPageAction?pageId=RESEARCH_ARTICLE&rp_ravWindow=true&rp_docId=1022503581http://www.minneapolisfed.org/news_events/pres/speech_display.cfm?id=5185https://plus.csintra.net/researchplus/CSPlusPageAction?pageId=RESEARCH_ARTICLE&rp_ravWindow=true&rp_docId=1022503581http://www.minneapolisfed.org/news_events/pres/speech_display.cfm?id=5185http://www.phil.frb.org/publications/speeches/plosser/2013/10-08-13_johnstown-chamber-of-commerce.cfmhttp://www.phil.frb.org/publications/speeches/plosser/2013/10-08-13_johnstown-chamber-of-commerce.cfmhttp://www.phil.frb.org/publications/speeches/plosser/2013/10-08-13_johnstown-chamber-of-commerce.cfmhttps://plus.csintra.net/researchplus/CSPlusPageAction?pageId=RESEARCH_ARTICLE&rp_ravWindow=true&rp_docId=1022503581http://www.minneapolisfed.org/news_events/pres/speech_display.cfm?id=5185https://www.minneapolisfed.org/news_events/pres/speech_display.cfm?id=4952http://www.clevelandfed.org/For_the_Public/News_and_Media/Speeches/2013/Pianalto_20131008.cfm


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Richard Fisher (Dallas) has served as bank president since April 4, 2005. Before his

appointment as president, Fisher served various roles in government, business and

academia. Fisher was a voting member on the FOMC in both 2008 and 2011.

Fisher is considered one of the more hawkish members of the FOMC; he has long been

opposed to recent easy money policies. In voting on the FOMC in 2011 Fisher, along with

Kocherlakota and Plosser, dissented at two meetings, including the one that implemented

operation twist. In recent speeches, Fisher has been criticizing the Fed for not takingaction in September, especially due to the uncertainty it has created around future policy.

In anOctober 3speech he said:

the recent decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to maintain thepace of its large-scale asset purchases in the face of a generally improving labor marketoutlook and a widespread perception within financial markets, right or wrong, that the Fedhad telegraphed a dialing back of the rate of purchases may have increased uncertaintyabout the future path of monetary policy. That was one argument raised against thedecision not to taper. I know, because I made the argument, and I was not alone.

When One Vice Chair is Not Enough

A little-known provision of the enormous Dodd-Frank financial reform law concerns

changes to governance and positions at the Federal Reserve. Buried inTitle XI of Dodd-

Frankis language creating a new position at the Fed, the Vice Chairman for Supervision.

Like the Vice Chairman of the Board, the Vice Chairman for Supervision will have a term

of four years.

While the Vice Chairman of the Board is charged with serving in the absence of the

Chairman, the law states that the Vice Chairman for Supervision shall develop policy

recommendations for the Board regarding supervision and regulation of depository

institution holding companies and other financial firms supervised by the Board, and shall

oversee the supervision and regulation of such firms.

One natural candidate for the new vice chairmanship position is Fed Governor Tarullo,

who has carved out bank supervision as his specialty on the Fed Board. We expect the

new vice chairman to be named sometime in 2014.

* * *

When Bernanke steps down early next year, his successor presumably Yellen -- will inherit

responsibility for a Board of Governors and an FOMC that are significantly more transparent

and innovative than the institution Bernanke first joined as a governor in 2002. Under

Bernankes leadership, the FOMC also became much more democratic and permissive in

the sense that individual participants were not discouraged from airing their views publicly,

even if those views were in direct contrast to the Feds stated policies. The resulting

cacaphony of opinions has at times distracted the publics attention from the Feds

institutional message.

The new Chair will need to guide this group of vocal and disparate policymakers through a

series of critical decisions regarding both the future pace and duration of QE3 and the

eventual commencement of policy normalization (i.e., the exit strategy). We wonder

whether Janet Yellen anticipated this challenge when she included the following in her

statement at the White Houseon Wednesday:

The Fed has powerful tools to influence the economy and the financial system, but I

believe its greatest strength rests in its capacity to approach important decisions with

expertise and objectivity, to vigorously debate diverse views, and then to unite behind its

response.
http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2013/fs131003.cfmhttp://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2013/fs131003.cfmhttp://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2013/fs131003.cfmhttp://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/242http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/242http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/242http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/242http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20131009a.htmhttp://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20131009a.htmhttp://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20131009a.htmhttp://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/242http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/242http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2013/fs131003.cfm


8/10

Below, we provide our hawk/dove scale from September 24 with the caveat that one

should be cautious in the use of blanket labels to characterize the predilections of Fed

officials. Exhibit 5 lists the current FOMC participants, along with our informal

determination of their policy leanings based on each officials voting history and public

comments.

Exhibit 5: Monetary Policymaker Bias Scale

Hawkish Neutral Dovish 2013 Voter 2014 Voter End of term

Charles I. Plosser

(Philadelphia Fed President) Feb 29, 2016

Esther George

(Kansas City Fed President) Feb 29, 2016

Richard W. Fisher

(Dallas Fed President) Feb 29, 2016

Jeffery M. Lacker

(Richmond Fed President)Feb 29, 2016

Sandra Pianalto*

(Cleveland Fed President) Feb 29, 2016

Dennis P. Lockhart

(Atlanta Fed President)Feb 29, 2016

Jerome H. Powell**

(Governor) Jan 31, 2014

Jeremy Stein


Daniel K. Tarullo


James Bullard

(St. Louis Fed President) Feb 29, 2016

Ben S. Bernanke*

(Chairman)

Jan 31, 2020

(Governor)

Jan 31, 2014

(Chairman)

William Dudley

(New York Fed President) Feb 29, 2016

John Williams

(San Francisco Fed President) Feb 29, 2016

Janet L. Yellen

(Vice Chair, FRB)

Jan 31, 2024

(Governor)

Oct 4, 2014

(Vice Chair)

Narayana Kocherlakota

(Minneapolis Fed President) Feb 29, 2016

Eric S. Rosengren

(Boston Fed President) Feb 29, 2016

Charles L. Evans(Chicago Fed President) Feb 29, 2016Sarah Bloom Raskin*

(Governor)Jan 31, 2016

Vacant*


* Duke left the Fed on August 31, 2013; Bernankes term as Chairman expires on January 31, 2014; Raskin is leaving the Fed to join the US Treasury; Pianalto is retiring in early 2014.

** Powells term as Governor expires at the end of January, but he may continue serving until a new appointment is made.

Source: Credit Suisse, Federal Reserve


9/10

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Carlos Teixeira, Director

+27 11 012 8054

[email protected]

South Africa

Gergely Hudecz, Vice President

+33 1 7039 0103

[email protected]

Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland

Alexey Pogorelov, Vice President

+7 495 967 8772

[email protected]

Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan

Shahzad Hasan, Vice President

+44 20 7883 1184

[email protected]

EEMEA Strategy

Natig Mustafayev, Associate

+44 20 7888 1065

[email protected]

EM and EEMEA cross-country analysis

Nimrod Mevorach, Associate

+44 20 7888 1257

[email protected]

EEMEA Strategy, Israel

JAPAN ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY

Hiromichi Shirakawa, Managing Director+81 3 4550 7117

[email protected]

Takashi Shiono, Associate+81 3 4550 7189

[email protected]

Tomohiro Miyasaka, Director+81 3 4550 7171

[email protected]

NON-JAPAN ASIA ECONOMICS

Dong Tao. Managing Director

Head of NJA Economics

+852 2101 7469

[email protected]

China

Robert Prior-Wandesforde, Director

+65 6212 3707

[email protected]

Regional, India, Indonesia, Australia

Christiaan Tuntono, Vice President

+852 2101 7409

[email protected]

Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan

Santitarn Sathirathai, Vice President

+65 6212 5675

[email protected]

Regional, Malaysia, Thailand

Michael Wan, Analyst

+65 6212 3418

[email protected]

Singapore, Philippines

Weishen Deng, Analyst

+852 2101 7162

[email protected]

China
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


10/10

Disclosure Appendix

Analyst Certification

Neal Soss, Dana Saporta and Jill Brown each certify, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyzes, that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personalviews about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisreport.

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Investment principal on bonds can be eroded depending on sale price or market price. In addition, there are bonds on which investment principalcan be eroded due to changes in redemption amounts. Care is required when investing in such instruments.When you purchase non-listed Japanese fixed income securities (Japanese government bonds, Japanese municipal bonds, Japanese government guaranteed bonds, Japanese corporate bonds) from CS as a seller, youwill be requested to pay the purchase price only.
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credit suisse, us economics digest, oct 11, 2013. "the 2014 fomc: a new cast of characters"

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