CREDITS TO PPIC, CPEC, GREYSTONE GROUP, LAO,

COMMUNITY COLLEGE LEAGUE OF CALIFORNIA

Previous PPIC research shows Economy will demand more highly educated

workers Population will not have enough education

to meet projected needs Can gap be closed through migration of highly

skilled workers from other states and countries?

Sizeable gap in projections for 2025 41% of jobs will require a B.A. / B.S. 32% of adults will have a college degree

Would require an increase in high-skilled migration of unprecedented magnitude to fill the gap

The coming skills gap Recent migration patterns Summary and policy implications

Share of total employment

%

Manufacturing

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Services

2005

2025 (projection)

Includes complex work in legal, engineering, computer services

Health and education services is fastestgrowing sector 43% of workers have a college degree

17

22

30 31

1619

25

41

0

10

20

30

40

No H.S.diploma

H.S.diploma

Somecollege

B.A./B.S.or more

2005

2025

%

Share of total employment

Number of jobs by educational attainment

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

No H.S. diploma

H.S.diploma

Some college

B.A./B.S. or more

Millions

2005

2025

32

1921

2931

15

23

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005

2025

%

No H.S. diploma

H.S.diploma

Some college

B.A./B.S. or more

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Allgroups

Latino White Asian AfricanAmerican

Education Will Improve for All Groups,Education Will Improve for All Groups,But Overall Gain Will Be SmallBut Overall Gain Will Be Small

10

13

4142

50

56

22 22

3132

20052025

%

College graduates,25-64 years old

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64

27

31 3130 30

32

35

32

College graduates by age group, 2005

%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

No H.S. diploma

H.S.diploma

Some college

B.A./B.S.or more

Millionsof workers

2025 demand

2025 supply, no migration

The coming skills gap Recent migration patterns Summary and policy implications

4838

28

30

1521

9 11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Domesticin-migrants

Domesticout-migrants

No H.S. diploma

H.S. diploma

Some college

B.A./B.S. or more

%

Domestic migrants, 2000-2005

Domestic migrants, 2000-2005

1.3 million

1.7 million

658,000612,000

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

Domesticin-migrants

Domesticout-migrants

(000)

No H.S. diploma

H.S. diploma

Some college

B.A./B.S. or more

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

%

Foreignborn

Born inCalifornia

Born inanother state

313335

Foreign immigration of college graduates to CaliforniaForeign immigration of college graduates to California

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1965-70 1975-80 1985-90 1995-2000 2000-05

(000)

Educational attainment of international immigrants, 2000-2005, aged 25-64

Some college

17

40

28

15

No H.S. diploma

H.S.diploma

B.A./B.S.or more

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1985-1990

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2025

Migration required to meet demand

(000)

Average annual net migration of college graduates

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1985-1990

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2025

Migration required to meet demand

Past domestic migration

(000)

Average annual net migration of college graduates

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1985-1990

1990-2000

2000-2005

2005-2025

Migration required to meet demand

Past domestic migration

Past international migration

(000)

Average annual net migration of college graduates

The coming skills gap Recent migration patterns Summary and policy implications

Domestic migration no longer provides substantial net increase in college-educated workers

International immigration has become important source of skilled workers But annual number of college-educated

immigrants would need to nearly triple to fill gap

The problem is that education trends in California are not projected to keep pace because population growth is concentrated among groups that have typically attained lower levels of education.

Immigrants and the children of immigrants will make up a large percentage of the 2025 working-age population. Up to now, this group has been among the least likely to finish high school or to attend or finish college. CA 2025

By 2010:- Hispanics, at 42% of the

population, will become the majority

- Industries with the greatest growth (service, transportation, and finance) require post-high school levels of education and strong language skills

- Manufacturing will only have a 3.7% growth rate

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

Labor NeededLabor Available

Employment Policy Foundation

If we don’t have the educated workforce we need, we’re potentially in a double bind: Where will the tax revenues come from to fund the transfer programs or to keep roads repaired, water clean and flowing, and schools running? Is it likely that the growing proportion of older people will be a source of high tax revenues?

It is particularly ironic that as the state seeks to cope with its budget woes, we may be limiting access to our public institutions of higher education, thereby potentially limiting the source of higher tax revenues from the working population in the future.

Requires change in federal policy Past federal reforms: few and far between Current policy favors family reunification Senate bill uses point system to shift toward skilled

workers May not happen, may not make a difference

Increasing competition for skilled workers From other states From other countries, including home countries

Improving college participation and graduationwill help close gap

State has important role Preparation for bachelor’s degree in K-14 Public university systems educate majority of

college graduates (76%)

We conclude that it is extremely unlikely that the projected need for highly skilled workers will be met mainly through the increased migration of college-educated workers.

However, increases in college participation and graduation among California’s residents could help meet these future demands. Such increases will be at least partly induced by the wage growth that will occur as highly skilled labor becomes relatively scarce.

Public policy in California, a state where the vast majority of college students are in public institutions, has an important role to play in accommodating and even encouraging such increases.

Can CA Import Enough Workers? PPIC

Public Policy Needed

Prop 92 Would Have Made a Major Difference

Opening Doors for California’s Students

“By aligning community college funding with growth in students, California’s community colleges will be able to open the doors to 114,824 students over the next three years.”

This budget calls for reducing community college enrollment by 2% below the governor's enrollment projection, which works out to about 52,000 headcount students.

Governor’s Budget Goes the Other Way

WHAT YOU CAN DO?

If you’re outraged at conditions, then you can’t possibly be free or happy until you devote all your time to changing them and do nothing but that. But you can’t change anything if you want to hold onto a good job, a good way of life and avoid sacrifice.

Cesar Chavez, United Farm Workers