cresa washington dc
DESCRIPTION
2014 Marketing Summary - cresa.comTRANSCRIPT
MARKET SUMMARYWASHINGTON, DC METRO AREA
Cresa Washington DC
1800 M Street, NW, Suite 350 S
Washington, DC 20036
202.628.0300
cresa.com/washingtondc
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
01
02
03
04
05
06
THE TENANT’S PERSPECTIVE
CONSTRUCTION & DELIVERIES
EMPLOYMENT
FEDERAL LEASING
MARKET UPDATE
AREA SNAPSHOT
Cresa provides customized solutions exclusively for corporate
space users by offering fully integrated services that align
their real estate needs with their business plans, delivering
maximum cost savings and exceeding expectations.
OUR MISSION
Information contained herein is provided, in part, from third party sources including:
GMU Center for Regional Analysis, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and CoStar Group.
Even though obtained from sources deemed reliable, no warranty or representation,
expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information herein.
01
Office construction is below average as
landlords struggle to backfill existing space.
THE TENANT’S PERSPECTIVE
Employment numbers are mixed. Retail leads
private sector job growth while the Federal
Government continues to shed employees.
Federal lease requirements are capped at
2012 occupancy levels and decreasing.
Tenant-favorable conditions continue in the
Washington Metro region.
Average vacancy rates in DC are at 12.8%.
Suburban MD sits at 18.1% while Northern VA
inches closer to 20% with 19.6% vacancy. Photo Credit: Stocksy.com
2
02
CONSTRUCTION & DELIVERIES
Less than 4 million square feet has delivered in 2014.
The 10-year average for new office construction delivery
annually is 7 million square feet. Pre-leasing is strongest
in Northern Virginia’s submarkets inside the beltway at
62% indicating more speculative development in Northern
Virginia outside of the beltway and Suburban Maryland
where pre-leased rates are under 40%.
8,000
14,000
4,000
2,000
6,000
OFFICE DELIVERIES (SF) BY MARKET
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20122011 2014 YTD2013
12,000
10,000
Northern Virginia
Suburban Maryland
Washington DC
10-Yr Average
2M
1.5M
1M
0.5M
DC MD NoVA NoVA
UNDER CONSTRUCTION (PRE-LEASING STATS)
# of Properties Under Construction
Square Feet
% Pre-leased
Square FeetPre-leased
3
Square Feet UC % Pre-leased
8
1,520,966
39%
588,614
11
970,320
43%
414,327
5
1,513,878
62%
931,035
6
932,944
36%
335,860
Washington, DC
Suburban Maryland
NoVA NoVA
39%43%
62%
36%
(Inside Beltway) (Outside Beltway)
(Inside Beltway) (Outside Beltway)
2015
45%
2017
3.7 MILLION SF
SLATED OFFICE SPACE DELIVERY
AVERAGEPRE-LEASED RATE
* for office projects Under Construction in the DC Metro Area
OCCUPANCY RATE: 1812 N MOORE ST
* 1812 N Moore Street is the DC Metro’s largest existing office building that delivered in late 20130 %
2014 MAJOR DELIVERIES
1) 5601 Fishers Lane
2) 14995 Shady Grove Road
3) 7900 Tysons One Place
4) 3001-03 Washington Boulevard
5) 800 10th Street, NW
6) 850 10th Street, NW
7) 655 K Street, NW
14995 Shady Grove Road
North Rockville111,476 Square Feet
15.2% LeasedLL: Lerner Enterprises
7900 Tysons One Place
Tysons Corner528,290 Square Feet
66.9% LeasedLL: Macerich
5601 Fishers Lane
Rockville490,998 Square Feet
100.0% LeasedLL: JBG Companies
3001-03 Washington Blvd
Clarendon/Courthouse302,665 Square Feet
89.6% LeasedLL: Invesco Realty Advisors
800 10th Street, NW
East End293,010 Square Feet
92.5% LeasedLL: Hines
655 K Street, NW
East End287,800 Square Feet
74.8% LeasedLL: Assn. of Am. Med. Colleges
850 10th Street, NW
East End263,994 Square Feet
100.0% LeasedLL: Hines
Photo Credit (1-7): CoStar Group
Photo Credit: © Paul Warchol, warcholphotography.com
EMPLOYMENT
03
The Washington Metro Region is home to a highly educated,
well-paid workforce. 48.2% of the adult population has
at least a Bachelor’s Degree and the median household
income for the region is $88,233 which is among the
highest of the top 25 metro areas.
Job Change: July 2013 - July 2014
80,000
160,000
40,000
20,000
60,000
15 LARGEST JOB MARKETSNew York
120,000
100,000
140,000
Los AngelesChicagoDallasDC HoustonPhiladelphiaBostonAtlantaM
iami
SF-OaklandDetroitSeattleM
inneapolisPhoenix
Ranked by Unemployment Rate June 2014
15 LARGEST JOB MARKETS
6
1.0%
5.0%
9.0%
3.0%
2.0%
4.0%
Minneapolis
7.0%
6.0%
8.0%
SeattleBostonSF-OaklandDC DallasHoustonPhiladelphiaM
iami
PhoenixNew YorkChicagoLos AngelesAtlantaDetroit
US 6.1
28.9 %
FEDERAL EMPLOYMENT
Expected to decline to 28.9% of
total employment by 2018.
11.5 %
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
By 2022, total employment is
projected to grow by 11.5%.
PROFESSIONAL BUSINESS SERVICES
Professional Business Services is
expected to contribute 48.8% to
job growth through 2018.
03 EMPLOYMENT
TOTAL EMPLOYEES BY INDUSTRY
Job growth in the Washington MSA has been
challenged by the contraction of the federal government.
Any improvement in the job growth rate will have to be
fueled by the private sector.
The Federal Government lost 8,000 jobs in the period
between July 2013 and July 2014. Professional &
Business services, an office-using sector, improved by
adding 2,000 jobs.
With unemployment just over 5%, the Washington
Metro remains under the US average of 6.1% and enjoys
the 5th lowest unemployment rate among the 15 largest
job markets in the country.
20,000
100,000
-40,000
-60,000
-20,000
60,000
40,000
80,000
200220052008
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Washington, MSA, 2002-2014
ANNUAL JOB CHANGE
7
July 2013 - July 2014 Washington MSA
JOB CHANGE BY SECTOR
Fed. Gov.
-5-10 5
Educ. & Health Services
Retail
Construction
Other Services
Financial
Information
Manufacturing
Wlse Trade
Prof. & Bus. Services
Leisure & Hosp.
Transportation & Utility
State & Local Gov.
10
Washington, MSA
5,000
25,000
-10,000
-15,000
-5,000
15,000
10,000
20,000
200220052008
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Federal GovernmentProf. & Bus. Services
FEDERAL LEASING
04
“Laying the groundwork for the long-term strategy
on government occupied real property, in 2012 the
Administration issued a Freeze the Footprint policy
and directed agencies to freeze the growth in their real
estate inventory.
In early calendar year 2014, the Administration will begin
publicly tracking the Government’s adherence to a fixed
baseline—730.2 million square feet—composed of office
and warehouse space, and agencies will continue to
pursue mobile workforce strategies and tighter internal
controls on space acquisitions.”
(Source: “The President’s Fiscal Year 2015 Budget”)
20,000,000
35,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
15,000,000
10-YEAR EXPIRING GOVERMENT LEASES
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20212020 20232022
30,000,000
25,000,000
Northern Virginia Suburban Maryland Washington DC
56 Million RSF
96 Million RSF
Source: GSA
DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
Current: 502,329
Proposed: 290,000 by FY2015
SELECT GOVERNMENT REDUCTIONS
DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE
Current: 1,045,000
Proposed: 839,000 by FY2017
FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION (FBI)
Current: 195,676
Proposed: 155,755 by FY2016
20%
42%
20%
8
2012
2013
2014
2015
04 FEDERAL LEASING
Change in USF
PROSPECTUS REQUIREMENTS
Number of Leases
0.4%
11.5%
14.6%
29.3%
6
14
12
3
PROPOSED FEDERAL EFFICIENCY REDUCTION
Current(USF/person)
Proposed(USF/person)
239 1912014 -Prospectus
Leases
9
Photo: © Eric Taylor, EricTaylorPhoto.com
05
MARKET UPDATE
Tenant favorable conditions are expected to continue through
the balance of 2014. There is still plenty of space to backfill
across the region—especially in Northern Virginia and Suburban
Maryland where vacancy rates continue to increase. Federal
employment and space requirements are decreasing so the
region will have to look at the private sector to fuel future growth.
Many jurisdictions around the region are pushing for high-tech
tenants as the DC Metro area looks to move beyond its reliance
on the federal government. Landlords continue to be aggressive
in pursuing tenants and are increasingly willing to buy out existing
lease obligations to attract tenants.
DC
MD
VA
12.4% $ 52.410.8% vs
2013$0.16 vs
2013
18.1% $ 28.731.4% vs
2013$0.31 vs
2013
19.6% $ 32.101.2% vs
2013$0.66 vs
2013
Offfice Vacancy Rates Asking Rents
10
Alexandria
97
28
586
355
355
214
5
4
236
123
123
267
7
270
270
495495
29
1
29
395
395
395
1295
295
95495
495
50
50
66
95
11
$41.55
19.2%
GEORGETOWN
$42.29
8.2%
CAPITOL HILL
$55.48
15.3%
EAST END
$54.51
11.8%
NOMA
$46.97
16.3%
UPTOWN
$40.15
14.8%WEST END
$52.70
10.1%
$51.38
12.4%
CAPITOL RIVERFRONT
$38.63
26.40%
CRYSTAL CITY
CLA
RE
NDO
N/ COURTHOUSE
$42.23
12.0%
$41.12
29.6%
ROSSLYN
$42.28
17.7%
BALLSTON
$32.34
15.0%
ALEXANDRIA
TY
SONS CORNER
$32.79
19.7%
$30.60
17.4%
MERRIFIELD
$28.39
16.0%
FAIRFAX CENTER
RESTON
$28.47
18.8%
$27.29
11.7%
HERNDON
$23.12
23.3%
ROUTE 28 NORTH
$25.03
18.8%
ROUTE 28 SOUTH
GERMANTOWN
$24.67
20.4%
G
AITHERSBURG
$22.58
17.1%
$30.08
20.0%
ROCKVILLE
$30.56
22.4%
NORTH BETHESDA
$36.84
11.2%
BETHESDA
SILVER SPRING
$28.93
11.4%
Rent
Vacancy
AREA OVERVIEW
Photo Credit: Capitolyardsdc.com
CBD
INCREASE
DECREASE
NO CHANGE
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Cresa © 2014. All rights reserved.
Permission is hereby granted for internal distribution by Cresa business partners. Other
reproduction by any means in whole or part without written permission is prohibited.
For additional information, please contact Justin Moultrie, Senior Research Manager, at
301.841.6533 or [email protected].
Cresa Washington DC
1800 M Street, NW, Suite 350 S
Washington, DC 20036
202.628.0300
2 Bethesda Metro Center, Suite 900
Bethesda, Maryland 20814
301.951.6500
1600 Tysons Boulevard, Suite 800
McLean, VA 22102
571.203.9360
Cresa Baltimore
509 S Exeter Street, Suite 200
Baltimore, Maryland 21202
410.558.6192
Photo Credit: Stocksy.com