cresco spiii analisi e simulazione di reti tecnologiche complesse e delle loro interdipendenze...
TRANSCRIPT
CRESCO SPIII
Analisi e Simulazione di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse e delle loro Interdipendenze
CRESCO SPIII
Analisi e Simulazione di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse e delle loro Interdipendenze
SANDRO BOLOGNA
SANDRO BOLOGNA
CRESCO SPIII Review MeetingPortici, 23 Ottobre, 2006
Esempi di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse
– Energia (rete di olio e gas, rete elettrica, …)
– Informazione & Comunicazione (reti informatiche e di telecomunicazione
– Trasporto (reti stradale, aeree, navali, ferroviarie,….)
– Servizi (reti idriche, sanitarie,..)
Fin
an
cia
l Se
rvic
es
Mutato contesto socio-economico
Pu
blic
Utilitie
s
He
alth
Ca
re
Te
lec
om
mu
nic
atio
n
Infrastrutture verticalmente integrate. Sistemi praticamente autonomi con limitati punti di contatto con le altre infrastrutture
Cyberspace
Ele
ctri
c Po
wer
Net
Hea
lth C
are
Mon
itori
ng S
yste
ms
Fina
ncia
l Ser
vice
s
?
Publ
ic U
tiliti
es
CyberspaceCyberspace
Ele
ctri
c Po
wer
Net
Ele
ctri
c Po
wer
Net
Hea
lth C
are
Hea
lth C
are
Mon
itori
ng S
yste
ms
Mon
itori
ng S
yste
ms
Fina
ncia
l Ser
vice
sFi
nanc
ial S
ervi
ces
??
Publ
ic U
tiliti
esPu
blic
Util
ities
Infrastrutture fortemente integrate ed interdipendenti e che si basano su un ambiente condiviso
The UCTE System:
2100 Twh delivered to 400 ML people
UNION FOR THE CO-ORDINATION OF TRANSMISSION OF ELECTRICITY
EUROPE GAS CRISIS WINTER 2006
NETWORK STATE OVERVIEW & ROOT CAUSES
CyberCyber
LayerLayer
Organisational Organisational LayerLayer
Intra-dependency
Inter-dependency
Three Layers Model for the Critical Infrastructure
Physical Physical
LayerLayer
Three Layers Model for the Electrical InfrastructureThree Layers Model for the Electrical Infrastructure
Electrical ComponentsElectrical Componentsgenerators, transformers, breakers,generators, transformers, breakers,
connecting cables etcconnecting cables etc
Control and supervisory hardware/software components
(Scada/EMS systems)
Electrical Power OperatorsIndependent System Operator
for electricity planning and transmission
Intra-dependency
National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Inter-dependency
US CANADA BLACK-OUTPower System Outage Task Force Interim Report
CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
Topology Model and Topology Model and AnalysisAnalysis
nodes and arcs in the netnodes and arcs in the net
State Machine Model and Analysis
processes and links in the netprocesses and links in the net
National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Interdependency Model Interdependency Model and Simulationand Simulation
all the links with the other netsall the links with the other nets
Organizational ModelOrganization, operators behaviourOrganization, operators behaviour
Riconfig and Optimiz Modelprocesses and links in the netprocesses and links in the net
CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
Topology Model and Topology Model and AnalysisAnalysis
nodes and arcs in the netnodes and arcs in the net
State Machine Model and Analysis
processes and links in the netprocesses and links in the net
National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Interdependency Model Interdependency Model and Simulationand Simulation
all the links with the other netsall the links with the other nets
Riconfig and Optimiz Modelprocesses and links in the netprocesses and links in the net
will make use of the latest results on complex systems theory to analyse the network’s property and to understand the emergent
behaviors that can take place in the network
Organizational ModelOrganization, operators behaviourOrganization, operators behaviour
COMPLEX SYSTEMS APPROACHRecent researches on large-scale networks make evident of some global
properties which are not pre-specified by network design and are difficult or impossible to predict from knowledge of its constituent parts.
(Barabasi, Strogatz, Watts,…)
Poisson distribution
Random Network
Power-law distribution
Scale-free Network
Present limitations of Complex Systems approach
Given a network with N nodes and L links
Create a graph with statistically identical topology
RESULT: model the static network topology
PROBLEM: Real networks are dynamical systems!
Evolving networksOBJECTIVE: capture the network dynamics
METHOD :• identify the processes that contribute to the network topology
•develop dynamical models that capture these processes
Network as a static graph
Università degli Studi di Catania, Facoltà di Scienze Matematiche, Fisiche e Naturali, Dipartimento di Fisica ed Astronomia, Prof. Vito Latora
PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-1
CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
Topology Model and Topology Model and AnalysisAnalysis
nodes and arcs in the netnodes and arcs in the net
State Machine Model and Analysis
processes and links in the netprocesses and links in the net
National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Interdependency Model Interdependency Model and Simulationand Simulation
all the links with the other netsall the links with the other nets
Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the netprocesses and links in the net
will make use of complementary risk assessment methods to estimate the probability of unwanted
incident that may lead to undesired states
Organizational ModelOrganization, operators behaviourOrganization, operators behaviour
Modelling tools for dependability analysis
Model checking
Extended Petri Nets
Fault Tree
Bayesian networks
Università degli Studi di Lecce, Dipartimento di Matematica, Prof.ssa Paola Vocca
Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale, Dipartimento di Informatica, Prof. Andrea Bobbio
PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-2
CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
Topology Model and Topology Model and AnalysisAnalysis
nodes and arcs in the netnodes and arcs in the net
State Machine Model and Analysis
processes and links in the netprocesses and links in the net
National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Interdependency Model Interdependency Model and Simulationand Simulation
all the links with the other netsall the links with the other nets
Riconfig and Optimiz Modelprocesses and links in the netprocesses and links in the net
will make use of analytical approaches to optimize the network in the presence of different
type of constraintsOrganizational ModelOrganization, operators behaviourOrganization, operators behaviour
Distribution Network
RO MIX
X
TRANSPORTATION NETWORK
X
X
Università degli Studi di Salerno, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione e Matematica Applicata: Prof. Ciro D’Apice
Università degli Studi di Palermo, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Informatica,Prof. Antonio Chella
PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-3
CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
Topology Model and Topology Model and AnalysisAnalysis
nodes and arcs in the netnodes and arcs in the net
State Machine Model and Analysis
processes and links in the netprocesses and links in the net
National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Interdependency Model Interdependency Model and Simulationand Simulation
all the links with the other netsall the links with the other nets
Riconfig and Optimiz Modelprocesses and links in the netprocesses and links in the net
will model the organization and the operator
behaviour to study organizational vulnerability
Organizational ModelOrganization, operators behaviourOrganization, operators behaviour
SOCIO-COGNITIVE ENGINEERING APPROACH: Human Errors
Copy rights: High-Intelligence & Decision Research Group, CAMO, ENEA, http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it Author: Adam Maria Gadomski, 8/10/2003
Large Complex Critical Infrastructure (LCCI)
Technological Grid
Human Errors
Organisation
Human component
Physical component
Cyber component
Università degli Studi di Roma “Tor Vergata”, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell’Impresa, Prof. Lucio Bianco
ECONA - Centro Interuniversitario di Ricerca sull’Elaborazione Cognitiva nei Sistemi Naturali e Artificiali, Prof.ssa Marta Olivetti Belardinelli
PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-4
CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
Topology Model and Topology Model and AnalysisAnalysis
nodes and arcs in the netnodes and arcs in the net
State Machine Model and Analysis
processes and links in the netprocesses and links in the net
National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Interdependency Model Interdependency Model and Simulationand Simulation
all the links with the other netsall the links with the other nets
Riconfig and Optimiz Modelprocesses and links in the netprocesses and links in the net
will establish probable correlation among different networks to understand cascading
failures or unknown and emergent behaviours
Organizational ModelOrganization, operators behaviourOrganization, operators behaviour
Oil
Electric
Power
Transpor-tation
NaturalGas
Telecom
Water
Water forProduction
CoolingEmission reduction
Water for Cooling,Emission reduction
Water for Cooling,
Power for pumpingStations, StorageControl Systems
Power for Pump& Lift Stations
Control Systems
Power for Switchers
Power for compressorsStorage, Control Systems
Power for Signalling, Switchers
SCADACommunications
SCADACommunications
SCADACommunications
SCADACommunications
Fuel for Generators,
Heat
Source:“Critic. Infrastruct Dependencies”
Rinaldi, Peerenboom,Kelly2002
Fuel for Generators,,Lubricants
Fuels, Lubricants
Fuels, Lubricants
Fuel for Generators,
Fuel TransportShipping
Fuel TransportShipping
Transportation
Transpor-tation
Modelling Networked Infrastructures Interdependencies
Università degli Studi di Roma "Tor Vergata", Dipartimento di Informatica, Sistemi e Produzione, Prof. Salvatore Tucci
C.R.I.A.I. Consorzio Campano di Ricerca per l’Informatica e l’Automazione Industriale, Prof. Giorgio Ventre
Università Campus Bio-medico di Roma, Facoltà di Ingegneria, Prof. Roberto Setola (Università degli Studi del Sannio, Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Prof. Luigi Glielmo)
PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-5
National InfrastructureSimulation and Analysis Center