CRFS Technical Committee Meeting

2009 Glen Canyon Operations Review And

2010 Projections

Lake Powell Annual Release Volume vs. Probability of Occurance

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Percent Exceedance Probability

Ann

ual R

elea

se V

olum

e (M

AF) Observed Remaining

Inf low (Nov-Sep) 9.09 maf

(81% average)

Observed Remaining Inf low (Nov-Sep)

11.51 maf(102% average)

November 24-monthObserved Remaining

Inf low (Nov-Sep)9.39 maf

(84% average)

6.27 maf 7.56 maf 8.30 maf 9.12 maf 10.07 maf 11.18 maf 14.54 maf

Lake Powell Water Year 2010 Projected Monthly Release Volumes Minimum Probable, Most Probable (November) and Maximum Probable

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Oct

09

Nov

09

Dec

09

Jan

10

Feb

10

Mar

10

Apr

10

May

10

Jun

10

Jul 1

0

Aug

10

Sep

10

Rel

ease

Vol

ume(

kaf)

Minimum Probable Most Probable (November) Maximum Probable

Lake Powell Projected Water Surface Elevations November 2009 Projected Most Probable Range

3,560

3,580

3,600

3,620

3,640

3,660

3,680

3,700

Oct

07

Nov

07

Dec

07

Jan

08Fe

b 08

Mar

08

Apr

08

May

08

Jun

08Ju

l 08

Aug

08

Sep

08

Oct

08

Nov

08

Dec

08

Jan

09Fe

b 09

Mar

09

Apr

09

May

09

Jun

09Ju

l 09

Aug

09

Sep

09

Oct

09

Nov

09

Dec

09

Jan

10Fe

b 10

Mar

10

Apr

10

May

10

Jun

10Ju

l 10

Aug

10

Sep

10

Oct

10

Nov

10

Dec

10

Jan

11Fe

b 11

Mar

11

Apr

11

May

11

Jun

11Ju

l 11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Elev

atio

n (ft

)

Projected Median Elevation Projected Reasonable Minimum Elevation

Historic Elevations 3700 Full Pool Elevation

Projected Reasonable Maximum Elevation 3490 Minimum Power Pool

AOP Process and Forecast Coordination

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Month

Aug and Oct-ESP Water Year Outlook Min, Most, Max (uncoordinated with NRCS)

Jan and Apr-Water Supply Forecast (Apr-Jul volume) Min, Most, Max (coordinated with NRCS)

AOP Water Year