crgaqs: revised camx 2004 results

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CRGAQS:Revised CAMx 2004 Results

Presentation to theGorge Study Technical Team

ByENVIRON International Corporation

May 2, 2007


Today’s Presentation

• Describe OR/WA emission changes

• Describe November 2004 met changes

• Revised 2004 CAMx simulation results

• Next Steps


Additional WA Funding

• 2004 and 2018 emission improvements• 2004 November meteorological

improvements• Rerun CAMx

– 2004 Base Case, August and November episodes

– 2018 Future Case, August and November episodes

– 2018 “What-if” scenarios– 2004 and 2018 PSAT runs, both episodes


OR/WA Emission Changes• Reviewed/changed ammonia emissions:

– All CAFOs increased:• x1.2 for OR, x1.4 for WA

– Three Mile Canyon near Boardman increased x4.3• head count and “flush” operations identified

– Certain fertilizer application types increased• x3.3 for anhydrous and aqueous• x2.7 for nitrogen solution

– Checked monthly fertilizer allocation by state (but not changed)

– No 2018 WRAP ammonia – WRAP used 2002 numbers for 2018

• We used 2002 WRAP outside OR/WA for 2018• We used 2004 OR/WA for 2018


OR/WA Emission Changes

• Reviewed/changed residential wood combustion:– ODEQ revealed x2 over estimate from surveys– WRAP 2018 RWC indicates x7 growth for OR,

x3 growth for WA, from our 2004 RWC– WRAP emissions contractor (ERG) stated a 4%

growth (population-based)– We reduced 2004 RWC by 50% and grew by

4% for 2018– Monthly profiles differ in 2004 from 2018 (but

not changed)


OR/WA Emission Changes

• Reviewed wind-blown dust methodology– Found some minor issues, but did not

change given very small component of overall PM


November Met Changes

• Background– August is performing OK, but November

lacks secondary aerosols• Lack of fog reduces aqueous SO4 production• Low humidity reduces NO3 condensation

• Hypothesis: If we can get the fog right,– Aqueous SO4 production can occur– High humidity will help increase

condensation of ammonium nitrate


November Met Changes

• Approach1) Gather satellite imagery for the period (provided by Paul)

2) Calculate MM5 average fog water content occurring over the episode -- use as the default water content to fill in the fog “holes”

3) Evaluate imagery against CAMx cloud plots to identify onset of fog and spatial extent – use terrain fields to define valleys and basins where the fog consistently forms and lingers

4) Use results from (2) and (3) to fill in fog in CAMx cloud field

5) Modify CAMx chemistry routine to ensure that relative humidity is 100% for a cloudy grid cell


August 2004 ResultsSO4. 04aug.run8

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

SO4. 04aug.run10

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

NO3. 04aug.run10

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

NO3. 04aug.run8

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

NH4. 04aug.run8

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

NH4. 04aug.run10

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN


August 2004 ResultsOC. 04aug.run8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

OC. 04aug.run10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

EC. 04aug.run8

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

EC. 04aug.run10

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

Light Scatter. Aug04, Run8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Observed [1/Mm]

Gorge

Light Scatter. 04aug.run10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Observed [1/Mm]

Gorge


August 2004 ResultsPM25. 04aug.run8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Observed ug/m̂ 3

IMPROVE FRM

PM25. 04aug.run10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Observed ug/m̂ 3

IMPROVE FRM

PM10. 04aug.run8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Observed ug/m̂ 3

IMPROVE

PM10. 04aug.run10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Observed ug/m̂ 3

IMPROVE

Light Extinction. 04aug.run8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Observed [1/Mm]

IMPROVE

Light Extinction. 04aug.run10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Observed [1/Mm]

IMPROVE


August 2004 Results

Run 8 Run 10 Parameter Fractional

Bias Fractional

Error Fractional

Bias Fractional

Error SO4 -64% 64% -65% 65% NO3 -111% 131% -109% 132% OC 12% 44% 5% 43% EC 4% 33% 1% 33% Primary Fine -77% 77% -81% 81% Light Scattering -16% 34% -16% 32% Light Extinction -74% 74% -45% 45%


August 2004 ResultsSauvie Island Bscat

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8/10

8/11

8/12

8/13

8/14

8/15

8/16

8/17

8/18

8/19

8/20

8/21

8/22

Bsc

at [

1/M

m]

Bscat, observed Bscat,04aug.run10 Bscat, 04aug.run8

Mt Zion Bscat

0

20

40

60

80

100

8/10

8/11

8/12

8/13

8/14

8/15

8/16

8/17

8/18

8/19

8/20

8/21

8/22

Bsc

at [

1/M

m]



August 2004 ResultsBonneville Bscat

01020304050607080

8/10

8/11

8/12

8/13

8/14

8/15

8/16

8/17

8/18

8/19

8/20

8/21

8/22

Bsc

at [

1/M

m]


Wishram Bscat

0102030405060708090

8/10

8/11

8/12

8/13

8/14

8/15

8/16

8/17

8/18

8/19

8/20

8/21

8/22

Bsc

at [

1/M

m]



August 2004 Results

Extinction Components at Mt Zion [1/Mm]. 04Nov.run10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0408

10

0408

11

0408

12

0408

13

0408

14

0408

15

0408

16

0408

17

0408

18

0408

19

0408

20

0408

21

(NH4)2SO4 (NH4)NO3 OC EC

FINE COARSE NA+PCL Bext, Observed

Extinction Components at Wishram [1/Mm]. 04Aug.run10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0408

10

0408

11

0408

12

0408

13

0408

14

0408

15

0408

16

0408

17

0408

18

0408

19

0408

20

0408

21


FINE COARSE NA+PCL Bext, observed


November 2004 ResultsSO4. 04nov.run7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

NO3. 04nov.run7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

NH4. 04nov.run7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

SO4. 04nov.run10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

NO3. 04nov.run10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

NH4. 04nov.run10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN


November 2004 ResultsOC. 04nov.run7

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 10 20 30 40 50

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

EC. 04nov.run7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

Light Scattering. 04nov.run7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Observed [1/Mm]

Gorge

OC. 04nov.run10

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 10 20 30 40 50

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

EC. 04nov.run10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 2 4 6 8

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

Light Scattering. 04nov.run10

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Observed [1/Mm]

Gorge


November 2004 ResultsPM25. 04nov.run7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Observed ug/m̂ 3

IMPROVE FRM

PM10. 04nov.run7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Observed ug/m̂ 3

IMPROVE

Light Extinction. 04nov.run7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Observed [1/Mm]

IMPROVE

PM25. 04nov.run10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Observed ug/m̂ 3

IMPROVE FRM

PM10. 04nov.run10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Observed ug/m̂ 3

IMPROVE

Light Extinction. 04nov.run10

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Observed [1/Mm]

IMPROVE


November 2004 Results

Run 8 Run 10 Parameter Fractional

Bias Fractional

Error Fractional

Bias Fractional

Error SO4 -45% 66% 14% 59% NO3 18% 108% 30% 91% OC 15% 56% -20% 53% EC 61% 75% 36% 57% Primary Fine Light Scattering Light Extinction


November 2004 ResultsSauvie Island Light Scattering

050

100150200250300350400450

309

310

311

312

313

314

315

316

317

318

319

320

321

322

323

Bsc

at [

1/M

m]

Bscat, observed Bscat, 04nov.run10 Bscat, 04nov.run7

Mt Zion Light Scattering

0

100

200

300

400

500

309

310

311

312

313

314

315

316

317

318

319

320

321

322

323

Bsc

at [

1/M

m]



November 2004 ResultsBonneville Light Scattering

020406080

100120140160180

309

310

311

312

313

314

315

316

317

318

319

320

321

322

323

Bsc

at [

1/M

m]


Wishram Light Scattering

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

309

310

311

312

313

314

315

316

317

318

319

320

321

322

323

Bsc

at [

1/M

m]





0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0411

04

0411

05

0411

06

0411

07

0411

08

0411

09

0411

10

0411

11

0411

12

0411

13

0411

14

0411

15

0411

16

0411

17




0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0411

04

0411

05

0411

06

0411

07

0411

08

0411

09

0411

10

0411

11

0411

12

0411

13

0411

14

0411

15

0411

16

0411

17





Extinction Components at Wishram [1/Mm]. 04Nov.run7

050

100150200250300350400450500

0411

04

0411

05

0411

06

0411

07

0411

08

0411

09

0411

10

0411

11

0411

12

0411

13

0411

14

0411

15

0411

16

0411

17



Extinction Components at Wishram [1/Mm]. 04Nov.run10

050

100150200250300350400450500

0411

04

0411

05

0411

06

0411

07

0411

08

0411

09

0411

10

0411

11

0411

12

0411

13

0411

14

0411

15

0411

16

0411

17




Next Steps

• 2018 runs are “in the oven”

• 2018 “what-if” scenarios are about to start

• 2004/18 PSAT runs will start after these are completed

• Complete technical report

crgaqs: revised camx 2004 results

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